EX-99.2 3 a05-3079_1ex99d2.htm EX-99.2

Exhibit 99.2

 

 

Financial Supplement

Fourth Quarter 2004

December 31, 2004

 

Table of Contents

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

 

 

Selected Financial Highlights

 

 

Consolidated GAAP Income Statements

 

 

Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets

 

 

Segment Consolidation

 

 

Financial Guaranty Direct Segment

 

 

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment

 

 

Mortgage Guaranty Segment

 

 

Other Segment

 

 

Loss and LAE Reserves

 

 

Fixed Income Investment Portfolio

 

 

Financial Guaranty Profile

 

 

Non-Investment Grade Exposure

 

 

Closely Monitored Credits

 

 

25 Largest Public Finance Exposures

 

 

25 Largest Structured Finance Exposures

 

 

Largest Single Name Corporate/Sovereign CDS Exposures

 

 

Consolidated Capital and Claims Paying Resources

 

 

Summary Financial and Statistical Data

 

 

 

 

Assured Guaranty Corp.

 

 

Financial Statements

 

 

Fixed Income Investment Portfolio

 

 

Financial Guaranty Profile

 

 

Non-Investment Grade Exposure

 

 

25 Largest Public Finance Exposures

 

 

25 Largest Structured Finance Exposures

 

 

Statutory Capital and Claims Paying Resources

 

 

 

 

Assured Guaranty Re International Ltd.

 

 

Financial Statements

 

 

Financial Guaranty Profile

 

 

Capital and Claims Paying Resources

 

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

 

 

 

Investor contact:

30 Woodbourne Avenue

 

 

 

Sabra Purtill

Hamilton HM 08 Bermuda

 

 

 

(212) 408-6044

www.assuredguaranty.com

 

 

 

spurtill@assuredguaranty.com

 



 

This supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. (the “Company”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our IPO prospectus dated April 22, 2004 and our 10-Q’s dated June 30, 2004 and September 30, 2004.

 

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:

 

Any forward-looking statements made in this supplement, such as its statements regarding PVP,  reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

 

Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements.  For example, the Company’s forward-looking statements could be affected by a significant reduction in the amount of reinsurance ceded by one or more of our principal ceding companies, rating agency action such as a ratings downgrade, difficulties with the execution of the Company’s business strategy, contract cancellations, developments in the world’s financial and capital markets, more severe losses or more frequent losses associated with products affecting the adequacy of the Company’s loss reserve, changes in regulation or tax laws, the Company’s dependence on customers, decreased demand or increased competition, loss of key personnel, the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures, changes in accounting policies or practices, and changes in general economic conditions, as well as management’s response to these factors, and other risk factors identified in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

 

Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made.  The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

 



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Selected Financial Highlights

(dollars in millions except per share amounts)

 

 

 

Quarter Ended
December 31,

 

% Change
versus
4Q-03

 

Year Ended
December 31,

 

% Change
versus
2003

 

 

 

2004

 

2003

 

 

2004

 

2003

 

 

Gross written premiums (GWP) analysis:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Present value of financial guaranty & mortgage guaranty GWP (PVP) (a)

 

$

82.2

 

$

57.1

 

44

%

$

289.6

 

$

265.9

 

9

%

Less: Installment premium PVP

 

52.4

 

28.9

 

81

%

164.1

 

153.4

 

7

%

Upfront financial guaranty & mortgage guaranty GWP

 

29.8

 

28.2

 

6

%

125.5

 

112.5

 

12

%

Plus: Installment GWP

 

32.2

 

31.1

 

4

%

140.0

 

146.1

 

-4

%

Financial guaranty & mortgage guaranty GWP

 

62.0

 

59.3

 

5

%

265.5

 

258.6

 

3

%

Plus: Other segment GWP

 

3.8

 

(14.7

)

NM

 

(74.6

)

90.6

 

NM

 

Total GWP

 

$

65.8

 

$

44.6

 

48

%

$

190.9

 

$

349.2

 

-45

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

48.3

 

$

97.2

 

-50

%

$

182.8

 

$

214.5

 

-15

%

Less: After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments

 

0.6

 

 

NM

 

7.7

 

3.8

 

103

%

Less: After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives

 

11.8

 

63.3

 

-81

%

34.0

 

83.4

 

-59

%

Operating income (b)

 

$

35.9

 

$

33.9

 

6

%

$

141.1

 

$

127.3

 

11

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book value

 

$

1,527.6

 

$

1,437.6

 

6

%

$

1,527.6

 

$

1,437.6

 

6

%

Net unearned premium reserve less DAC, after-tax (1)

 

268.6

 

223.4

 

20

%

268.6

 

223.4

 

20

%

Net present value of installment premiums in-force, after-tax

 

297.1

 

266.8

 

11

%

297.1

 

266.8

 

11

%

Adjusted book value (c)

 

$

2,093.3

 

$

1,927.8

 

9

%

$

2,093.3

 

$

1,927.8

 

9

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ROE, excluding AOCI

 

13.5

%

29.7

%

 

 

13.0

%

17.0

%

 

 

Less: After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments

 

0.2

%

0.0

%

 

 

0.6

%

0.3

%

 

 

Less: After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives

 

3.3

%

19.4

%

 

 

2.4

%

6.6

%

 

 

Operating ROE, excluding AOCI (b)

 

10.0

%

10.3

%

 

 

10.1

%

10.1

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average basic shares outstanding in millions (2)

 

74.9

 

75.0

 

0

%

75.0

 

75.0

 

0

%

Average diluted shares outstanding in millions

 

75.0

 

75.0

 

0

%

75.0

 

75.0

 

0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Per diluted share:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

0.64

 

$

1.30

 

-51

%

$

2.44

 

$

2.86

 

-15

%

Less: After-tax realized gains (losses) on investments

 

0.01

 

 

100

%

0.10

 

0.05

 

100

%

Less: After-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives

 

0.16

 

0.84

 

-81

%

0.45

 

1.11

 

-59

%

Operating income (b)

 

$

0.48

 

$

0.45

 

7

%

$

1.88

 

$

1.70

 

11

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book value

 

$

20.19

 

$

19.17

 

5

%

$

20.19

 

$

19.17

 

5

%

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve less DAC, after-tax (1)

 

3.55

 

2.98

 

19

%

3.55

 

2.98

 

19

%

Plus: Net present value of installment premiums in-force, after-tax

 

3.93

 

3.56

 

10

%

3.93

 

3.56

 

10

%

Adjusted book value (c)

 

$

27.67

 

$

25.71

 

8

%

$

27.67

 

$

25.71

 

8

%

 


(1).  Unearned premium reserve (UPR) less pre-paid reinsurance premiums and deferred acquisition costs (DAC), all after-tax

 

(2).  Historical amounts represent shares issued upon the IPO closing

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

 

3



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated GAAP Income Statements

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Quarter Ended
December 31,

 

% Change
versus
4Q-03

 

Year Ended
December 31,

 

% Change
versus
2003

 

 

 

2004

 

2003

 

 

2004

 

2003

 

 

Revenues

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

65.8

 

$

44.6

 

48

%

$

190.9

 

$

349.2

 

-45

%

Net written premiums

 

61.4

 

158.4

 

-61

%

79.6

 

491.5

 

-84

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

57.1

 

87.0

 

-34

%

187.9

 

310.9

 

-40

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net investment income

 

23.7

 

24.4

 

-3

%

94.8

 

96.3

 

-2

%

Other income

 

0.3

 

0.2

 

50

%

0.8

 

1.2

 

-33

%

Total revenues

 

$

81.1

 

$

111.6

 

-27

%

$

283.5

 

$

408.4

 

-31

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expenses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

0.2

 

52.7

 

NM

 

(32.0

)

144.6

 

NM

 

Profit commission expenses

 

4.2

 

2.4

 

75

%

15.5

 

9.8

 

58

%

Acquisition costs

 

15.1

 

15.8

 

-4

%

50.9

 

64.9

 

-22

%

Other operating expenses

 

14.5

 

9.6

 

51

%

67.8

 

41.0

 

65

%

Goodwill impairment

 

 

 

 

1.6

 

 

NM

 

Interest expense

 

3.4

 

1.4

 

143

%

10.7

 

5.7

 

88

%

Total expenses

 

$

37.4

 

$

81.9

 

-54

%

$

114.6

 

$

266.1

 

-57

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income before provision for income taxes

 

43.7

 

29.7

 

47

%

168.9

 

142.3

 

19

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total provision for income taxes

 

7.8

 

(4.2

)

NM

 

27.8

 

15.0

 

85

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating income (b)

 

$

35.9

 

$

33.9

 

6

%

$

141.1

 

$

127.3

 

11

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After-tax net realized gains on investments

 

0.6

 

 

NM

 

7.7

 

3.8

 

103

%

After-tax unrealized gains on derivative instruments

 

11.8

 

63.3

 

-81

%

34.0

 

83.4

 

-59

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

48.3

 

$

97.2

 

-50

%

$

182.8

 

$

214.5

 

-15

%

 


Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

 

4



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of :

 

 

 

December 31,
2004

 

December 31,
2003

 

Assets

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed maturity securities available for sale, at fair value

 

$

1,965.1

 

$

2,052.2

 

Short-term investments, at cost, which approximates market

 

175.8

 

137.5

 

Total investments

 

2,140.9

 

2,189.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash and cash equivalents

 

17.0

 

32.4

 

Accrued investment income

 

21.9

 

23.8

 

Deferred acquisition costs

 

186.4

 

178.7

 

Premiums receivable

 

40.8

 

64.0

 

Prepaid reinsurance premiums

 

15.2

 

11.0

 

Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses

 

120.2

 

122.1

 

Due from affiliate

 

 

115.0

 

Unrealized gains on derivative financial instruments

 

43.9

 

 

Value of reinsurance business assumed

 

 

14.2

 

Goodwill

 

85.4

 

87.1

 

Other assets

 

22.3

 

20.0

 

Total assets

 

$

2,694.0

 

$

2,857.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities and shareholders’ equity

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserve

 

$

521.3

 

$

625.4

 

Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses

 

226.5

 

522.6

 

Profit commissions payable

 

61.7

 

71.2

 

Reinsurance balances payable

 

25.1

 

4.9

 

Deferred income taxes

 

40.1

 

55.6

 

Unrealized losses on derivative financial instruments

 

 

8.6

 

Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts

 

50.8

 

9.6

 

Long-term debt

 

197.4

 

75.0

 

Other liabilities

 

43.7

 

47.2

 

Total liabilities

 

1,166.4

 

1,420.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shareholders’ equity

 

 

 

 

 

Common stock

 

0.8

 

16.4

 

Treasury stock

 

(7.9

)

 

Additional paid-in capital

 

894.2

 

955.5

 

Accumulated other comprehensive income

 

79.0

 

81.2

 

Unearned stock grant compensation

 

(6.7

)

(5.5

)

Retained earnings

 

568.3

 

390.0

 

Total shareholders’ equity

 

1,527.6

 

1,437.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity

 

$

2,694.0

 

$

2,857.9

 

 

5



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Segment Consolidation

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Quarter Ended December 31, 2004

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance(1)

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Present value of financial guaranty gross written premiums (PVP): (a)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

5.7

 

$

26.4

 

$

 

$

32.1

 

 

 

$

32.1

 

Structured finance

 

33.9

 

9.3

 

6.9

 

50.1

 

 

 

50.1

 

Total PVP

 

$

39.6

 

$

35.7

 

$

6.9

 

$

82.2

 

 

 

$

82.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

21.3

 

$

36.5

 

$

4.2

 

$

62.0

 

$

3.8

 

$

65.8

 

Net written premiums

 

20.9

 

36.3

 

4.2

 

61.4

 

 

61.4

 

Net earned premiums

 

15.5

 

36.5

 

5.2

 

57.1

 

 

57.1

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

1.0

 

1.6

 

(2.0

)

0.6

 

(0.4

)

0.2

 

Profit commission expense

 

 

0.9

 

3.5

 

4.2

 

 

4.2

 

Acquisition costs

 

1.6

 

13.0

 

0.6

 

15.1

 

 

15.1

 

Operating expenses

 

3.9

 

9.1

 

1.3

 

14.5

 

 

14.5

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

6.5

 

$

24.6

 

$

3.4

 

$

34.4

 

$

(0.4

)

$

34.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

9.0

 

$

11.9

 

$

1.8

 

$

22.7

 

$

0.4

 

$

23.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

6.5

%

4.4

%

-37.8

%

1.1

%

 

 

0.4

%

Expense ratio

 

35.4

%

63.0

%

103.5

%

59.2

%

 

 

59.2

%

Combined ratio

 

41.9

%

67.4

%

65.7

%

60.3

%

 

 

59.5

%

 

 

 

 

Quarter Ended December 31, 2003

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance(1)

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

PVP:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

 

$

31.3

 

$

 

$

31.3

 

 

 

$

31.3

 

Structured finance

 

21.7

 

4.0

 

 

25.7

 

 

 

25.7

 

Total PVP

 

$

21.7

 

$

35.4

 

$

 

$

57.1

 

 

 

$

57.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

17.0

 

$

37.9

 

$

4.4

 

$

59.3

 

$

(14.7

)

$

44.6

 

Net written premiums

 

16.6

 

37.9

 

4.4

 

58.9

 

99.5

 

158.4

 

Net earned premiums

 

16.1

 

24.5

 

5.7

 

46.3

 

40.7

 

87.0

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

3.2

 

15.3

 

(1.7

)

16.8

 

35.9

 

52.7

 

Profit commission expense

 

 

0.5

 

1.1

 

1.6

 

0.8

 

2.4

 

Acquisition costs

 

1.0

 

8.1

 

0.6

 

9.7

 

6.1

 

15.8

 

Operating expenses

 

1.8

 

2.7

 

0.6

 

5.1

 

4.5

 

9.6

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

6.0

 

$

26.6

 

$

0.6

 

$

33.2

 

$

47.3

 

$

80.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

10.1

 

$

(2.1

)

$

5.1

 

$

13.1

 

$

(6.6

)

$

6.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

19.9

%

62.4

%

-29.8

%

36.3

%

88.2

%

60.6

%

Expense ratio

 

17.4

%

46.1

%

40.4

%

35.4

%

28.0

%

32.0

%

Combined ratio

 

37.3

%

108.6

%

10.5

%

71.7

%

116.2

%

92.5

%

 


 

(1).  Due to the timing of receipts of reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross installment premiums written (PVP), par written and par outstanding in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

 

6



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Segment Consolidation

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Year Ended December 31, 2004

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance(1)

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

Present value of financial guaranty GWP (PVP): (a)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

8.6

 

$

137.3

 

$

 

$

145.9

 

 

 

$

145.9

 

Structured finance

 

$

61.1

 

$

55.5

 

$

27.1

 

$

143.8

 

 

 

$

143.8

 

Total PVP

 

$

69.7

 

$

192.8

 

$

27.1

 

$

289.6

 

 

 

$

289.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

80.8

 

$

160.3

 

$

24.4

 

$

265.5

 

$

(74.6

)

$

190.9

 

Net written premiums

 

77.7

 

160.1

 

24.4

 

262.2

 

(182.5

)

79.6

 

Net earned premiums

 

88.8

 

114.4

 

33.7

 

236.8

 

(48.9

)

187.9

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

14.8

 

15.4

 

(11.9

)

18.3

 

(50.3

)

(32.0

)

Profit commission expense

 

 

1.1

 

14.1

 

15.2

 

0.3

 

15.5

 

Acquisition costs

 

4.5

 

38.8

 

3.7

 

47.0

 

3.9

 

50.9

 

Operating expenses (2)

 

15.8

 

28.5

 

8.3

 

52.6

 

3.9

 

56.5

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

35.1

 

$

83.8

 

$

14.2

 

$

133.1

 

$

(42.2

)

$

90.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

53.7

 

$

30.6

 

$

19.5

 

$

103.7

 

$

(6.7

)

$

97.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

16.7

%

13.5

%

-35.2

%

7.7

%

102.8

%

-17.0

%

Expense ratio

 

22.8

%

59.8

%

77.4

%

48.5

%

-16.6

%

65.4

%

Combined ratio

 

39.5

%

73.2

%

42.2

%

56.2

%

86.2

%

48.4

%

 

 

 

Year Ended December 31, 2003

 

 

 

Financial

 

Financial

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Mortgage

 

Financial

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Direct

 

Reinsurance(1)

 

Guaranty

 

Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

PVP:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

1.5

 

$

131.4

 

$

 

$

132.9

 

 

 

$

132.9

 

Structured finance

 

94.5

 

37.9

 

0.6

 

133.0

 

 

 

133.0

 

Total PVP

 

$

96.0

 

$

169.3

 

$

0.6

 

$

265.9

 

 

 

$

265.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

71.1

 

$

163.1

 

$

24.4

 

$

258.6

 

$

90.6

 

$

349.2

 

Net written premiums

 

70.0

 

162.1

 

24.4

 

256.5

 

235.0

 

491.5

 

Net earned premiums

 

70.2

 

92.9

 

27.6

 

190.7

 

120.2

 

310.9

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

16.3

 

25.7

 

(0.7

)

41.3

 

103.3

 

144.6

 

Profit commission expense

 

 

1.5

 

7.3

 

8.8

 

1.0

 

9.8

 

Acquisition costs

 

2.2

 

33.6

 

4.1

 

39.9

 

25.0

 

64.9

 

Operating expenses

 

8.9

 

12.0

 

4.2

 

25.1

 

15.9

 

41.0

 

Total underwriting expenses

 

$

27.4

 

$

72.8

 

$

14.9

 

$

115.1

 

$

145.2

 

$

260.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

42.8

 

$

20.1

 

$

12.7

 

$

75.6

 

$

(25.0

)

$

50.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

23.2

%

27.7

%

-2.5

%

21.7

%

85.9

%

46.5

%

Expense ratio

 

15.8

%

50.7

%

56.5

%

38.7

%

34.9

%

37.2

%

Combined ratio

 

39.0

%

78.4

%

54.0

%

60.4

%

120.8

%

83.7

%

 


(1).  Due to the timing of receipts of reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross installment premiums written (PVP), par written and par outstanding in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

 

(2).  Full year 2004 excludes the allocation of $11.3 million of consolidated operating expenses related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

 

7



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Direct Segment

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Year Ended

 

 

 

1Q-03

 

2Q-03

 

3Q-03

 

4Q-03

 

1Q-04

 

2Q-04

 

3Q-04

 

4Q-04

 

2003

 

2004

 

PVP: (a)

 

$

20.7

 

$

15.4

 

$

38.2

 

$

21.7

 

$

7.9

 

$

14.4

 

$

7.9

 

$

39.6

 

$

96.0

 

$

69.7

 

less: Present value of installment premiums written in period

 

(20.7

)

(15.4

)

(36.7

)

(21.7

)

(7.9

)

(14.4

)

(7.9

)

(33.9

)

(94.6

)

(64.0

)

Upfront gross written premiums

 

 

 

1.5

 

 

 

 

 

5.7

 

1.5

 

5.7

 

plus: Installment gross written premiums

 

14.0

 

23.1

 

15.5

 

17.0

 

25.6

 

17.7

 

16.2

 

15.6

 

69.6

 

75.1

 

Financial guaranty gross written premiums

 

$

14.0

 

$

23.1

 

$

17.0

 

$

17.0

 

$

25.6

 

$

17.7

 

$

16.2

 

$

21.3

 

$

71.1

 

$

80.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

14.0

 

$

23.1

 

$

17.0

 

$

17.0

 

$

25.6

 

$

17.7

 

$

16.2

 

$

21.3

 

$

71.1

 

$

80.8

 

Net written premiums

 

15.8

 

20.6

 

17.0

 

16.6

 

25.3

 

17.3

 

14.2

 

20.9

 

70.0

 

77.7

 

Net earned premiums

 

16.9

 

21.2

 

16.0

 

16.1

 

40.7

 

16.1

 

16.5

 

15.5

 

70.2

 

88.8

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

2.0

 

6.4

 

4.7

 

3.2

 

13.4

 

1.6

 

(1.2

)

1.0

 

16.3

 

14.8

 

Profit commission expense

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Acquisition costs

 

 

 

1.2

 

1.0

 

1.4

 

0.1

 

1.4

 

1.6

 

2.2

 

4.5

 

Operating expenses (1)

 

2.7

 

1.9

 

2.5

 

1.8

 

3.3

 

4.3

 

4.3

 

3.9

 

8.9

 

15.8

 

Total expenses

 

$

4.7

 

$

8.3

 

$

8.4

 

$

6.0

 

$

18.1

 

$

6.0

 

$

4.5

 

$

6.5

 

$

27.4

 

$

35.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain

 

$

12.2

 

$

12.9

 

$

7.6

 

$

10.1

 

$

22.6

 

$

10.1

 

$

12.0

 

$

9.0

 

$

42.8

 

$

53.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

11.8

%

30.2

%

29.4

%

19.9

%

32.9

%

9.9

%

-7.3

%

6.5

%

23.2

%

16.7

%

Expense ratio

 

16.0

%

9.0

%

23.1

%

17.4

%

11.5

%

27.3

%

34.5

%

35.4

%

15.8

%

22.8

%

Combined ratio

 

27.8

%

39.2

%

52.5

%

37.3

%

44.5

%

37.3

%

27.3

%

41.9

%

39.0

%

39.5

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PVP:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

 

$

 

$

1.5

 

$

 

$

 

$

2.9

 

$

 

$

5.7

 

$

1.5

 

$

8.6

 

Structured finance

 

20.7

 

15.4

 

36.7

 

21.7

 

7.9

 

11.4

 

7.9

 

33.9

 

94.5

 

61.1

 

Total

 

$

20.7

 

$

15.4

 

$

38.2

 

$

21.7

 

$

7.9

 

$

14.4

 

$

7.9

 

$

39.6

 

$

96.0

 

$

69.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Par written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

 

$

 

$

48

 

$

 

$

 

$

246

 

$

508

 

$

194

 

$

48

 

$

948

 

Structured finance

 

1,212

 

1,163

 

2,796

 

1,810

 

1,488

 

2,444

 

854

 

7,263

 

6,980

 

12,049

 

Total

 

$

1,212

 

$

1,163

 

$

2,844

 

$

1,810

 

$

1,488

 

$

2,691

 

$

1,361

 

$

7,457

 

$

7,028

 

$

12,997

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Par outstanding:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

2,120

 

$

2,381

 

$

2,251

 

$

2,138

 

$

2,112

 

$

2,321

 

$

2,852

 

$

3,144

 

$

2,138

 

$

3,144

 

Structured finance

 

17,709

 

18,140

 

20,509

 

21,561

 

21,737

 

23,454

 

23,605

 

28,468

 

21,561

 

28,468

 

Total

 

$

19,829

 

$

20,521

 

$

22,760

 

$

23,698

 

$

23,849

 

$

25,775

 

$

26,457

 

$

31,612

 

$

23,698

 

$

31,612

 

Present value of installment premiums in force: (a)

 

$

194.6

 

$

205.4

 

$

221.9

 

$

228.1

 

$

220.6

 

$

219.7

 

$

218.9

 

$

231.0

 

$

228.1

 

$

231.0

 

Unearned premium reserve, net

 

$

29.0

 

$

28.2

 

$

29.1

 

$

31.2

 

$

16.0

 

$

17.1

 

$

14.7

 

$

20.3

 

$

31.2

 

$

20.3

 

 


(1).  2Q-04 and full year 2004 exclude the allocation of $11.3 million of consolidated operating expenses related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

 

8



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment (1)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Year Ended

 

 

 

1Q-03

 

2Q-03

 

3Q-03

 

4Q-03

 

1Q-04

 

2Q-04

 

3Q-04

 

4Q-04

 

2003

 

2004

 

Present value of gross written premiums (PVP) (a)

 

$

38.6

 

$

27.1

 

$

68.3

 

$

35.4

 

$

78.1

 

$

40.1

 

$

38.9

 

$

35.7

 

$

169.3

 

$

192.8

 

less: Present value of installment premiums (a)

 

(15.7

)

(12.2

)

(23.2

)

(7.2

)

(40.0

)

(17.2

)

(14.5

)

(11.6

)

(58.3

)

(83.3

)

Upfront gross written premiums

 

22.9

 

14.8

 

45.2

 

28.2

 

38.1

 

22.9

 

24.5

 

24.1

 

111.0

 

109.5

 

plus: Installment gross written premiums (2)

 

6.9

 

19.2

 

16.2

 

9.7

 

14.3

 

12.9

 

11.1

 

12.4

 

52.1

 

50.8

 

Financial guaranty gross written premiums

 

$

29.8

 

$

34.0

 

$

61.4

 

$

37.9

 

$

52.4

 

$

35.8

 

$

35.6

 

$

36.5

 

$

163.1

 

$

160.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

29.8

 

$

34.0

 

$

61.4

 

$

37.9

 

$

52.4

 

$

35.8

 

$

35.6

 

$

36.5

 

$

163.1

 

$

160.3

 

Net written premiums

 

29.1

 

33.9

 

61.2

 

37.9

 

52.4

 

35.8

 

35.6

 

36.3

 

162.1

 

160.1

 

Net earned premiums

 

16.9

 

30.1

 

21.4

 

24.5

 

20.4

 

25.6

 

31.9

 

36.5

 

92.9

 

114.4

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

1.8

 

0.9

 

7.7

 

15.3

 

3.9

 

(0.9

)

10.8

 

1.6

 

25.7

 

15.4

 

Profit commission expense

 

0.1

 

0.9

 

 

0.5

 

0.1

 

0.3

 

(0.2

)

0.9

 

1.5

 

1.1

 

Acquisition costs

 

5.4

 

11.9

 

8.2

 

8.1

 

7.1

 

6.6

 

12.1

 

13.0

 

33.6

 

38.8

 

Operating expenses (3)

 

3.1

 

2.8

 

3.4

 

2.7

 

4.1

 

6.9

 

8.4

 

9.1

 

12.0

 

28.5

 

Total expenses

 

$

10.4

 

$

16.5

 

$

19.3

 

$

26.6

 

$

15.2

 

$

12.9

 

$

31.1

 

$

24.6

 

$

72.8

 

$

83.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

6.5

 

$

13.6

 

$

2.1

 

$

(2.1

)

$

5.2

 

$

12.7

 

$

0.8

 

$

11.9

 

$

20.1

 

$

30.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

10.7

%

3.0

%

36.0

%

62.4

%

19.1

%

—3.5

%

33.9

%

4.4

%

27.7

%

13.5

%

Expense ratio

 

50.9

%

51.8

%

54.2

%

46.1

%

55.4

%

53.9

%

63.6

%

63.0

%

50.7

%

59.8

%

Combined ratio

 

61.5

%

54.8

%

90.2

%

108.6

%

74.5

%

50.4

%

97.5

%

67.4

%

78.4

%

73.2

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PVP:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

26.8

 

$

15.8

 

$

57.5

 

$

31.3

 

$

45.8

 

$

31.2

 

$

33.9

 

$

26.4

 

$

131.4

 

$

137.3

 

Structured finance

 

11.8

 

11.3

 

10.8

 

4.0

 

32.3

 

8.9

 

5.0

 

9.3

 

37.9

 

55.5

 

Total

 

$

38.6

 

$

27.1

 

$

68.3

 

$

35.4

 

$

78.1

 

$

40.1

 

$

38.9

 

$

35.7

 

$

169.3

 

$

192.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Par written:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

1,279

 

$

914

 

$

2,621

 

$

1,906

 

$

1,932

 

$

1,590

 

$

2,262

 

$

1,443

 

$

6,720

 

$

7,227

 

Structured finance

 

1,263

 

737

 

888

 

406

 

1,154

 

629

 

507

 

861

 

3,295

 

3,151

 

Total

 

$

2,542

 

$

1,651

 

$

3,510

 

$

2,312

 

$

3,086

 

$

2,219

 

$

2,769

 

$

2,304

 

$

10,014

 

$

10,378

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Par outstanding:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

$

47,238

 

$

47,001

 

$

48,499

 

$

50,538

 

$

51,806

 

$

52,061

 

$

52,926

 

$

51,324

 

$

50,538

 

$

51,324

 

Structured finance

 

13,089

 

12,976

 

13,083

 

13,287

 

13,935

 

13,514

 

13,084

 

12,656

 

13,287

 

12,656

 

Total

 

$

60,327

 

$

59,977

 

$

61,582

 

$

63,825

 

$

65,741

 

$

65,575

 

$

66,010

 

$

63,980

 

$

63,825

 

$

63,980

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net premiums earned from refundings

 

$

3.3

 

$

8.1

 

$

5.8

 

$

2.0

 

$

2.9

 

$

4.4

 

$

5.2

 

$

5.0

 

$

19.2

 

$

17.4

 

Present value of installment premiums in force: (a)

 

$

101.1

 

$

105.6

 

$

116.4

 

$

117.2

 

$

140.3

 

$

147.2

 

$

138.0

 

138.9

 

$

117.2

 

$

138.9

 

Unearned premium reserve, net

 

$

341.0

 

$

343.0

 

$

382.9

 

$

398.7

 

$

436.4

 

$

441.0

 

$

444.2

 

443.80

 

$

398.7

 

$

443.8

 

 


(1).  Due to the timing of receipts of reports prepared by our ceding companies, present value of financial guaranty gross installment premiums written (PVP), par written and par outstanding in our Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

 

(2).  Installment gross written premiums includes the reclassification of certain deals originally recorded as installment that were discovered during 3Q-04 to be upfront premiums. As a result, prior period amounts have been restated. This reclass had an immaterial impact on our QTD and YTD results of operations and financial condition.

 

(3).  2Q-04 and full year 2004 exclude the allocation of $11.3 million of consolidated operating expenses related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

 

9



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Mortgage Guaranty Segment

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Year Ended

 

 

 

1Q-03

 

2Q-03

 

3Q-03

 

4Q-03

 

1Q-04

 

2Q-04

 

3Q-04

 

4Q-04

 

2003

 

2004

 

Present value of gross written premiums (PVP) (a)

 

$

 

$

 

$

0.6

 

$

 

$

19.2

 

$

 

$

1.1

 

$

6.9

 

$

0.6

 

$

27.1

 

less: Present value of installment premiums (a)

 

 

 

(0.6

)

 

(8.9

)

 

(1.1

)

(6.9

)

(0.6

)

(16.9

)

Upfront gross written premiums

 

 

 

 

 

10.3

 

 

 

 

 

10.3

 

plus: Installment gross written premiums

 

5.8

 

8.5

 

5.7

 

4.4

 

3.7

 

0.9

 

5.3

 

4.2

 

24.4

 

14.1

 

Financial guaranty gross written premiums

 

$

5.8

 

$

8.5

 

$

5.7

 

$

4.4

 

$

14.0

 

$

0.9

 

$

5.3

 

$

4.2

 

$

24.4

 

$

24.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

5.8

 

$

8.5

 

$

5.7

 

$

4.4

 

$

14.0

 

$

0.9

 

$

5.3

 

$

4.2

 

$

24.4

 

$

24.4

 

Net written premiums

 

6.1

 

8.2

 

5.7

 

4.4

 

14.0

 

0.9

 

5.3

 

4.2

 

24.4

 

24.4

 

Net earned premiums

 

6.9

 

9.4

 

5.6

 

5.7

 

8.4

 

15.0

 

5.1

 

5.2

 

27.6

 

33.7

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

1.2

 

3.7

 

(3.9

)

(1.7

)

(1.2

)

(3.3

)

(5.4

)

(2.0

)

(0.7

)

(11.9

)

Profit commission expense

 

3.2

 

1.4

 

1.6

 

1.1

 

5.0

 

4.3

 

1.3

 

3.5

 

7.3

 

14.1

 

Acquisition costs

 

1.0

 

1.5

 

1.0

 

0.6

 

0.9

 

1.7

 

0.5

 

0.6

 

4.1

 

3.7

 

Operating expenses (1)

 

1.8

 

0.9

 

0.9

 

0.6

 

1.7

 

4.0

 

1.3

 

1.3

 

4.2

 

8.3

 

Total expenses

 

$

7.2

 

$

7.5

 

$

(0.4

)

$

0.6

 

$

6.4

 

$

6.7

 

$

(2.3

)

$

3.4

 

$

14.9

 

$

14.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

(0.3

)

$

1.9

 

$

6.0

 

$

5.1

 

$

2.0

 

$

8.3

 

$

7.4

 

$

1.8

 

$

12.7

 

$

19.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

17.4

%

39.4

%

-69.6

%

-29.8

%

-14.3

%

-22.0

%

-105.9

%

-37.8

%

-2.5

%

-35.2

%

Expense ratio

 

87.0

%

40.4

%

62.5

%

40.4

%

90.5

%

66.7

%

60.8

%

103.5

%

56.5

%

77.4

%

Combined ratio

 

104.3

%

79.8

%

-7.1

%

10.5

%

76.2

%

44.7

%

-45.1

%

65.7

%

54.0

%

42.2

%

 


(1).  2Q-04 and full year 2004 exclude the allocation of $11.3 million of consolidated operating expenses related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.

 

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

 

10



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Other Segment

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Year Ended

 

 

 

1Q-03

 

2Q-03

 

3Q-03

 

4Q-03

 

1Q-04

 

2Q-04

 

3Q-04

 

4Q-04

 

2003

 

2004

 

Income statement:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

60.9

 

$

18.3

 

$

26.0

 

$

(14.7

)

$

(93.6

)

$

10.0

 

$

5.2

 

$

3.8

 

$

90.6

 

$

(74.6

)

Net written premiums

 

53.1

 

56.3

 

26.0

 

99.5

 

(98.5

)

(84.0

)

 

 

235.0

 

(182.5

)

Net earned premiums

 

22.9

 

21.4

 

35.2

 

40.7

 

17.1

 

(66.0

)

 

 

120.2

 

(48.9

)

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

18.2

 

24.8

 

24.4

 

35.9

 

7.5

 

(57.4

)

 

(0.4

)

103.3

 

(50.3

)

Profit commission expense

 

(0.5

)

0.4

 

0.3

 

0.8

 

0.1

 

0.2

 

 

 

1.0

 

0.3

 

Acquisition costs

 

5.4

 

6.0

 

7.5

 

6.1

 

3.9

 

 

 

 

25.0

 

3.9

 

Operating expenses (1)

 

4.0

 

1.9

 

5.5

 

4.5

 

3.9

 

 

 

 

15.9

 

3.9

 

Total expenses

 

$

27.1

 

$

33.1

 

$

37.7

 

$

47.3

 

$

15.4

 

$

(57.2

)

$

 

$

(0.4

)

$

145.2

 

$

(42.2

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

(4.2

)

$

(11.7

)

$

(2.5

)

$

(6.6

)

$

1.7

 

$

(8.8

)

$

 

$

0.4

 

$

(25.0

)

$

(6.7

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio

 

79.5

%

115.9

%

69.3

%

88.2

%

43.9

%

87.0

%

 

 

85.9

%

102.8

%

Expense ratio

 

38.9

%

38.8

%

37.8

%

28.0

%

46.2

%

-0.3

%

 

 

34.9

%

-16.6

%

Combined ratio

 

118.3

%

154.7

%

107.1

%

116.2

%

90.1

%

86.7

%

 

 

120.8

%

86.2

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity layer credit protection

 

$

12.6

 

$

7.6

 

$

19.5

 

$

22.1

 

$

5.4

 

$

 

$

 

$

 

$

61.8

 

$

5.4

 

Trade credit reinsurance

 

10.7

 

14.3

 

11.6

 

14.6

 

9.3

 

(34.6

)

 

 

 

51.2

 

(25.3

)

Title reinsurance

 

1.2

 

1.2

 

4.6

 

3.7

 

2.4

 

0.8

 

 

 

10.7

 

3.2

 

Life accident and health reinsurance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Auto residual value reinsurance

 

0.7

 

0.7

 

0.7

 

2.1

 

 

(32.2

)

 

 

4.2

 

(32.2

)

Affiliate reinsurance

 

(2.3

)

(2.4

)

(1.2

)

(1.8

)

 

 

 

 

(7.7

)

 

Total net earned premiums

 

$

22.9

 

$

21.4

 

$

35.2

 

$

40.7

 

$

17.1

 

$

(66.0

)

$

 

$

 

$

120.2

 

$

(48.9

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underwriting gain (loss) (1):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity layer credit protection

 

$

1.1

 

$

(5.7

)

$

(15.2

)

$

18.8

 

$

2.2

 

$

0.5

 

$

 

$

0.4

 

$

(1.0

)

$

3.1

 

Trade credit reinsurance

 

(1.4

)

(4.0

)

(0.1

)

2.2

 

1.3

 

(4.2

)

 

 

(3.3

)

(2.9

)

Title reinsurance

 

1.0

 

0.8

 

2.9

 

2.1

 

0.7

 

0.3

 

 

 

6.8

 

1.0

 

Life accident and health reinsurance

 

(0.5

)

 

(0.1

)

 

 

 

 

 

(0.6

)

 

Auto residual value reinsurance

 

(2.5

)

(1.9

)

0.1

 

(30.8

)

(2.5

)

(5.4

)

 

 

(35.1

)

(7.9

)

Affiliate reinsurance

 

(1.9

)

(0.9

)

9.9

 

1.1

 

 

 

 

 

8.2

 

 

Total underwriting gain (loss)

 

$

(4.2

)

$

(11.7

)

$

(2.5

)

$

(6.6

)

$

1.7

 

$

(8.8

)

$

 

$

0.4

 

$

(25.0

)

$

(6.7

)

 


1.  2Q-04 and full year 2004 excludes the allocation of $11.3 million of consolidated operating expenses related to the accelerated vesting of stock awards at the IPO date.

 

11



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Loss and LAE Reserves by Segment, Type of Reserve and by Segment and Type of Reserve
(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of
December 31,
2004

 

As of
December 31,
2003

 

Loss and LAE reserves by segment:

 

 

 

 

 

Financial guaranty direct

 

$

19.9

 

$

29.9

 

Financial guaranty reinsurance

 

78.8

 

72.8

 

Mortgage guaranty

 

11.2

 

24.1

 

Other

 

116.6

 

395.8

 

Total

 

$

226.5

 

$

522.6

 

 

 

 

As of
December 31,
2004

 

As of
December 31,
2003

 

Loss and LAE reserves by type:

 

 

 

 

 

Case basis

 

$

53.5

 

$

128.9

 

IBNR

 

105.8

 

319.0

 

Portfolio

 

67.2

 

74.7

 

Total

 

$

226.5

 

$

522.6

 

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2004

 

 

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Mortgage
Guaranty

 

Total
Financial
Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

By segment and type of loss and LAE reserve:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case basis

 

$

4.3

 

$

29.1

 

$

0.8

 

$

34.2

 

$

19.3

 

$

53.5

 

IBNR

 

 

 

8.5

 

8.5

 

97.3

 

105.8

 

Portfolio

 

15.6

 

49.7

 

1.9

 

67.2

 

 

67.2

 

Total

 

$

19.9

 

$

78.8

 

$

11.2

 

$

109.9

 

$

116.6

 

$

226.5

 

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2004

 

 

 

Financial
Guaranty
Direct

 

Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance

 

Mortgage
Guaranty

 

Total
Financial
Guaranty

 

Other

 

Total

 

By segment and type of loss and LAE reserve:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Case basis

 

$

2.0

 

$

35.3

 

$

1.8

 

$

39.1

 

$

89.8

 

$

128.9

 

IBNR

 

 

 

13.1

 

13.1

 

305.9

 

319.0

 

Portfolio

 

27.9

 

37.5

 

9.2

 

74.7

 

 

74.7

 

Total

 

$

29.9

 

$

72.8

 

$

24.1

 

$

126.9

 

$

395.8

 

$

522.6

 

 

12



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Fixed Income Investment Portfolio
as of December 31, 2004
(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Amortized
Cost

 

Pre-Tax
Book
Yield

 

Fair Value

 

Duration

 

Annualized
Investment
Income

 

Fixed maturity securities available for sale:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies

 

$

47.5

 

4.7

%

$

50.3

 

7.2

 

$

2.2

 

Agency obligations

 

211.2

 

5.2

%

219.8

 

4.8

 

10.9

 

Foreign government securities

 

18.5

 

4.9

%

18.8

 

3.0

 

0.9

 

Obligations of states and political subdivisions

 

326.3

 

4.6

%

345.2

 

7.3

 

14.9

 

Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions

 

483.1

 

4.9

%

522.9

 

7.0

 

23.9

 

Corporate securities

 

160.6

 

5.9

%

170.3

 

5.4

 

9.4

 

Mortgage-backed securities:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pass-thrus

 

430.3

 

5.1

%

440.1

 

3.6

 

22.1

 

PACs

 

119.9

 

4.6

%

120.4

 

2.2

 

5.5

 

Asset-backed securities

 

76.2

 

5.4

%

77.4

 

2.2

 

4.1

 

Total fixed maturity securities available for sale

 

1,873.4

 

5.0

%

1,965.1

 

5.4

 

93.9

 

Short-term investments

 

175.8

 

1.9

%

175.8

 

 

3.3

 

Total investments

 

$

2,049.3

 

4.8

%

$

2,140.9

 

5.0

 

$

97.3

 

 

 

 

Fair Value

 

%

 

Maturity schedule:

 

 

 

 

 

Due within one year

 

$

15.0

 

0.8

%

Due in one to five years

 

174.3

 

8.9

%

Due in five to ten years

 

345.1

 

17.6

%

Due in greater than ten years

 

870.1

 

44.3

%

Mortgage-backed securities

 

560.5

 

28.5

%

Total

 

$

1,965.1

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

Fair Value

 

%

 

Quality distribution:

 

 

 

 

 

Treasury and Government Obligations

 

$

50.3

 

2.6

%

Agency Obligations

 

219.8

 

11.1

%

AAA/Aaa

 

1,257.3

 

64.0

%

AA/Aa

 

307.3

 

15.6

%

A/A

 

129.0

 

6.6

%

BBB/Baa

 

1.4

 

0.1

%

Total

 

$

1,965.1

 

100.0

%

 

13



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile
(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2004:

 

 

 

Gross Par Written

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Avg. Rating (8)

 

Sector

4Q 2004

 

4Q 2003

 

Public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General obligation bonds

 

$

192

 

$

431

 

$

12,698

 

13.3

%

A+

 

Municipal utilities

 

350

 

447

 

10,917

 

11.4

%

A+

 

Tax backed

 

590

 

565

 

10,387

 

10.9

%

A+

 

Transportation

 

98

 

107

 

6,886

 

7.2

%

A

 

Healthcare

 

247

 

153

 

6,598

 

6.9

%

A

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

44

 

62

 

2,244

 

2.3

%

A-

 

Structured municipal (1)

 

 

 

1,366

 

1.4

%

AAA

 

Housing

 

70

 

50

 

1,336

 

1.4

%

AA-

 

Other public finance (2)

 

35

 

32

 

1,064

 

1.1

%

A-

 

Higher education

 

11

 

58

 

972

 

1.0

%

A+

 

Total public finance

 

$

1,637

 

$

1,906

 

$

54,468

 

57.0

%

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CDO’s (3)

 

$

1,823

 

$

344

 

$

17,256

 

18.1

%

AA+

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity

 

5,979

 

970

 

11,933

 

12.5

%

AA

 

Commercial receivables (4)

 

173

 

524

 

4,824

 

5.0

%

AA-

 

Consumer receivables (5)

 

16

 

247

 

3,451

 

3.6

%

A-

 

Other structured finance (6)

 

134

 

131

 

2,035

 

2.1

%

A+

 

Single name corporate CDS (7)

 

 

 

1,624

 

1.7

%

A+

 

Total structured finance

 

$

8,125

 

$

2,216

 

$

41,124

 

43.0

%

AA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposure

 

$

9,762

 

$

4,121

 

$

95,592

 

100.0

%

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage guaranty risk in force

 

$

271

 

$

 

$

2,325

 

NA

 

NA

 

 


(1).  Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.

 

(2).  Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.

 

(3).  Collateralized debt obligations (CDO’s) are structured financings backed by a pool of investment grade assets. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

 

(4).  Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

 

(5).  Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

 

(6).  Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.

 

(7).  Single name corporate credit default swaps (CDS) includes CDS of investor-owned utilities.

 

(8).  Ratings are internally determined based on rating agency guidelines.

 

14



 

Distribution by ratings of financial guaranty portfolio

 

 

 

December 31, 2004

 

December 31, 2003

 

Ratings (1)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

29,696

 

31.1

%

$

26,374

 

30.1

%

AA/Aa

 

19,856

 

20.8

%

17,587

 

20.1

%

A/A

 

31,393

 

32.8

%

30,008

 

34.3

%

BBB/Baa

 

13,137

 

13.7

%

12,051

 

13.8

%

Below investment grade

 

1,509

 

1.6

%

1,505

 

1.7

%

 

 

$

95,592

 

100

%

$

87,524

 

100

%

 

Geographic distribution of financial guaranty portfolio, as of December 31, 2004

 

U.S.:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

California

 

$

7,472

 

7.8

%

New York

 

5,495

 

5.7

%

Texas

 

3,201

 

3.3

%

Illinois

 

2,876

 

3.0

%

Florida

 

2,756

 

2.9

%

New Jersey

 

2,441

 

2.6

%

Pennsylvania

 

2,061

 

2.2

%

Massachusetts

 

1,842

 

1.9

%

Puerto Rico

 

1,775

 

1.9

%

Washington

 

1,702

 

1.8

%

Other - Muni

 

18,614

 

19.5

%

Other - Non Muni

 

35,149

 

36.8

%

Total U.S.

 

$

85,386

 

89.3

%

 

International:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

United Kingdom

 

$

5,263

 

5.5

%

Germany

 

1,082

 

1.1

%

Australia

 

537

 

0.6

%

Brazil

 

362

 

0.4

%

Italy

 

280

 

0.3

%

Other

 

2,681

 

2.8

%

Total International

 

$

10,205

 

10.7

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

$

95,592

 

100

%

 

Distribution by ratings of CDO and credit derivative exposures

 

 

 

December 31, 2004

 

December 31, 2003

 

Ratings (1)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

20,213

 

73.2

%

$

20,703

 

76.1

%

AA/Aa

 

3,451

 

12.5

%

2,534

 

9.3

%

A/A

 

2,828

 

10.2

%

2,575

 

9.5

%

BBB/Baa

 

1,011

 

3.7

%

1,216

 

4.5

%

Below investment grade

 

128

 

0.5

%

158

 

0.6

%

 

 

$

27,631

 

100

%

$

27,187

 

100

%

 


(1).  Assured Guaranty internal rating

 

15



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Non-Investment Grade Exposure
as of December 31, 2004
(dollars in millions)

 

Asset Type

 

Weighted Average
Remaining Life

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Average
Rating (8)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Transportation

 

19.3

 

$

374.1

 

BB

 

Healthcare

 

12.5

 

94.0

 

BB

 

General obligation bonds

 

11.1

 

69.0

 

BB+

 

Other public finance (1)

 

26.1

 

44.1

 

BB-

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

17.4

 

16.9

 

BB-

 

Municipal utilities

 

10.9

 

14.0

 

C

 

Tax backed

 

9.8

 

8.3

 

BB-

 

Housing

 

8.1

 

3.3

 

B

 

Higher education

 

11.3

 

1.0

 

BB+

 

Structured municipal (2)

 

 

 

 

Total public finance

 

17.4

 

$

624.8

 

BB

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consumer receivables (3)

 

2.2

 

$

496.7

 

BB

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity

 

6.7

 

150.0

 

B-

 

Commercial receivables (4)

 

6.7

 

121.6

 

B

 

CDO’s (5)

 

3.0

 

115.8

 

BB-

 

Other structured finance (6)

 

4.1

 

0.1

 

BB-

 

Single name corporate CDS (7)

 

 

 

 

Total structured finance

 

3.7

 

$

884.2

 

BB-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposure

 

9.4

 

$

1,509.0

 

BB-

 

 


(1).  Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.

 

(2).  Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.

 

(3).  Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

 

(4).  Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

 

(5).  Collateralized debt obligations (CDO’s) are structured financings backed by a pool of investment grade assets. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

 

(6).  Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.

 

(7).  Single name corporate credit default swaps (CDS) includes CDS of investor-owned utilities.

 

(8).  Ratings are internally determined based on rating agency guidelines.

 

16



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Closely Monitored Credits
as of December 31, 2004
(dollars in millions)

 

Net par outstanding by credit monitoring category (1)

 

 

 

December 31, 2004

 

# of
credits in
category

 

December 31, 2003

 

# of
credits in
category

 

Description

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

 

Fundamentally sound, normal risk

 

$

93,855

 

98.2

%

 

 

 

$

85,795

 

98.0

%

 

 

Closely monitored:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Category 1

 

1,490

 

1.6

%

35

 

1,310

 

1.5

%

29

 

Category 2

 

165

 

0.2

%

9

 

252

 

0.3

%

10

 

Category 3

 

70

 

0.1

%

16

 

131

 

0.1

%

17

 

Category 4

 

12

 

 

8

 

36

 

 

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Subtotal

 

1,737

 

1.8

%

68

 

1,729

 

2.0

%

59

 

Total

 

$

95,592

 

100

%

 

 

$

87,524

 

100

%

 

 

 


(1).  Our risk management department is responsible for monitoring our portfolio of credits and maintains a list of closely monitored credits. The closely monitored credits are divided into four categories: Category 1 (low priority; fundamentally sound, greater than normal risk); Category 2 (medium priority; weakening credit profile, may result in loss); Category 3 (high priority; losses likely, case reserve established); Category 4 (claim paid or incurred). Credits that are not included in the closely monitored credit list are categorized as fundamentally sound, normal risk.

 

17



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
25 Largest Public Finance Exposures
as of December 31, 2004
(dollars in millions)

 

Revenue Source

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Rating(1)

 

New Jersey State General Obligation & Leases

 

$

845

 

AA-

 

California State General Obligation & Leases

 

834

 

A-

 

Long Island Power Authority

 

711

 

A-

 

Denver Colorado Airport System

 

626

 

A

 

Jefferson County Alabama Sewer

 

606

 

A

 

Chicago Illinois General Obligation

 

577

 

A+

 

New York City General Obligation & Leases

 

553

 

A

 

Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority

 

544

 

A-

 

New York State Metro Trans Auth

 

535

 

A

 

New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority

 

522

 

AA+

 

Houston Texas Water & Sewer System

 

504

 

A+

 

Energy Northwest

 

481

 

AA-

 

San Francisco California Airport

 

477

 

A

 

Puerto Rico General Obligation & Leases

 

463

 

A-

 

Massachusetts State General Obligation & Bay Transportation

 

455

 

AA-

 

New York State General Obligation

 

427

 

AA

 

Mental Health Services Facilities - New York

 

371

 

AA-

 

Los Angeles County Metro Trans

 

356

 

AA

 

Santee Cooper Revenue Bonds - South Carolina

 

345

 

AA-

 

Dade County Florida Water & Sewer System

 

324

 

A

 

Chicago Illinois Public Building - Board of Education

 

307

 

A+

 

Puerto Rico Government Development Bank

 

300

 

AAA/A+(2)

 

Illinois State General Obligation

 

295

 

AA

 

Los Angeles County California Pension Obligation

 

274

 

A

 

Chicago O’Hare International Airport

 

271

 

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total top 25 public finance exposures

 

$

12,003

 

 

 

 


(1).  Assured Guaranty internal rating

 

(2).  $267 million of the net par for this credit is wrapped by a AAA monoline financial guaranty company

 

18



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
25 Largest Structured Finance Exposures
as of December 31, 2004
(dollars in millions)

 

Revenue Source

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Rating(1)

 

Park Place (Ameriquest) PPSI 2004-MHQ1 Class A-1

 

$

1,574

 

AAA

 

Ameriquest Mortgage Securities Inc. 2004-R10 A-1

 

1,108

 

AAA

 

Argent Securities Inc. 2004-W11 Class A-1

 

992

 

AAA

 

Structured Finance Corporate Pool

 

884

 

AAA

 

Bear Stearns ABS I Trust 2004-FR3 2-A

 

747

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

740

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG ABS

 

619

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

606

 

A+

 

Synthetic CDO - IG ABS

 

594

 

AAA

 

Synthetic Credit Card Master Trust

 

550

 

AAA

 

Field Point I & II, Limited Class A1 & A2

 

540

 

AA-

 

Argent Securities Inc. 2003-W6

 

513

 

BBB+

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

500

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

470

 

AA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

440

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

440

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

430

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

410

 

AAA

 

Synthetic Sub-Prime RMBS

 

406

 

AAA

 

Providian Gateway Master Trust

 

384

 

IG/NIG(2)

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

360

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

360

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

347

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

313

 

BBB+

 

Private Sub-Prime RMBS

 

284

 

AAA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total top 25 structured finance exposures

 

$

14,610

 

 

 

 


(1).  Assured Guaranty internal rating

(2).  $305 million of the net par for this credit has investment grade rating ranging from BBB- to BBB+ and $79 million of the net par has non-investment grade rating of BB+

 

19



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Single Name Corporate CDS Exposures
as of December 31, 2004
(dollars in millions)

 

Obligor

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Rating(1)

 

General Electric Capital Corp.

 

$

60

 

AAA

 

Allianz AG

 

53

 

AA-

 

American International Group

 

50

 

AAA

 

Fannie Mae

 

45

 

AAA

 

Oesterreichische Elektrizitaertswirtschafts AG

 

39

 

A

 

Citigroup Inc.

 

39

 

AA-

 

ABN Amro Bank NV

 

30

 

AA-

 

American Express Corp.

 

30

 

A+

 

Bellsouth Corp.

 

30

 

A

 

Freddie Mac

 

30

 

AAA

 

Total top 10 single name CDS exposures

 

$

405

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross Par Written

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Single name corporate CDS by rating

 

4Q-04

 

4Q-03

 

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

 

$

 

340

 

AA/Aa

 

 

 

293

 

A/A

 

 

 

811

 

BBB/Baa

 

 

 

181

 

Below investment grade

 

 

 

 

Total

 

$

 

$

 

$

1,624

 

 

 

 

Net Par Outstanding

 

Single name corporate CDS run-off

 

2005(2)

 

2006

 

2007

 

2008

 

2009

 

Beginning par outstanding

 

$

1,624

 

$

636

 

$

450

 

$

219

 

$

119

 

Scheduled runoff amount

 

988

 

186

 

231

 

100

 

10

 

Ending par outstanding

 

$

636

 

$

450

 

$

219

 

$

119

 

$

109

 

 


(1).  Assured Guaranty internal rating

 

(2).  Beginning balance as of January 1, 2005

 

20



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Consolidated Capital and Claims Paying Resources
(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2004

 

As of December 31, 2003

 

 

 

AGC

 

AGR (1)

 

Consolidated

 

AGC

 

AGR (1)

 

Consolidated

 

Statutory surplus and reserves

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserve (2)

 

$

406

 

$

186

 

$

592

 

$

467

 

$

233

 

$

700

 

Contingency reserve

 

518

 

 

518

 

400

 

 

400

 

Policyholders’ surplus

 

237

 

596

 

833

 

256

 

560

 

816

 

Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves

 

32

 

103

 

135

 

55

 

390

 

445

 

Total policyholders’ surplus & reserves

 

$

1,193

 

$

885

 

$

2,078

 

$

1,178

 

$

1,183

 

$

2,361

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Claims paying resources

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Policyholders’ surplus

 

$

237

 

$

596

 

$

833

 

$

256

 

$

560

 

$

816

 

Contingency reserve

 

518

 

 

518

 

400

 

 

400

 

Statutory capital

 

755

 

596

 

1,351

 

$

656

 

$

560

 

$

1,216

 

Unearned premium reserve (2)

 

406

 

186

 

592

 

467

 

233

 

700

 

Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves

 

32

 

103

 

135

 

55

 

390

 

445

 

Total policyholders’ reserves

 

438

 

289

 

727

 

$

522

 

$

623

 

$

1,145

 

Present value of installment premium

 

268

 

132

 

400

 

293

 

90

 

383

 

Standby line of credit/stop loss

 

255

 

 

255

 

255

 

 

255

 

Total claims paying resources

 

$

1,716

 

$

1,017

 

$

2,733

 

$

1,726

 

$

1,273

 

$

2,999

 

 


(1). AGR numbers are our estimate of US statutory as the company files Bermuda statutory financial statements

 

(2). Unearned premium reserve for AGR is GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums

 

21



 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Summary Financial and Statistical Data

(dollars in millions, expect per share amounts)

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

 

 

 

Year Ended December 31,

 

 

 

2004

 

2003

 

2002

 

2001

 

2000

 

GAAP Summary Income Statement Data

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross premiums written

 

$

190.9

 

$

349.2

 

$

417.2

 

$

442.9

 

$

206.0

 

Net earned premiums

 

187.9

 

310.9

 

247.4

 

293.5

 

140.7

 

Net investment income

 

94.8

 

96.3

 

97.2

 

99.5

 

98.1

 

Total expenses

 

114.6

 

266.1

 

218.8

 

282.8

 

131.8

 

Income before provision for income taxes

 

233.3

 

246.2

 

83.2

 

110.1

 

118.1

 

Net income

 

182.8

 

214.5

 

72.6

 

63.8

 

93.2

 

Operating income

 

141.1

 

127.3

 

115.7

 

96.1

 

87.6

 

Net income per diluted share

 

$

2.44

 

$

2.86

 

$

0.97

 

$

0.85

 

$

1.24

 

Operating income per diluted share

 

$

1.88

 

$

1.70

 

$

1.54

 

$

1.28

 

$

1.17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Ratios

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and LAE ratio

 

-17.0

%

46.5

%

48.6

%

60.5

%

21.6

%

Expense ratio

 

65.4

%

37.2

%

35.5

%

30.6

%

61.2

%

Combined ratio

 

48.4

%

83.7

%

84.1

%

91.1

%

82.8

%

GAAP Summary Balance Sheet Data (end of period)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total investments and cash

 

$

2,157.9

 

$

2,222.1

 

$

2,061.9

 

$

1,710.8

 

$

1,549.6

 

Total assets

 

2,694.0

 

2,857.9

 

2,719.9

 

2,322.1

 

1,913.7

 

Unearned premium reserve

 

521.3

 

625.4

 

613.3

 

500.3

 

444.6

 

Loss and LAE reserves

 

226.5

 

522.6

 

458.8

 

401.1

 

171.0

 

Long-term debt

 

197.4

 

75.0

 

75.0

 

150.0

 

150.0

 

Shareholders’ equity

 

1,527.6

 

1,437.6

 

1,257.2

 

1,061.6

 

994.5

 

Book value per share

 

$

20.19

 

$

19.17

 

$

16.76

 

$

14.15

 

$

13.26

 

Other Financial Information (end of period)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net debt service outstanding

 

$

136,120

 

$

130,047

 

$

124,082

 

$

117,909

 

$

102,744

 

Net par amount outstanding

 

95,592

 

87,524

 

80,394

 

75,249

 

65,756

 

 

Assured Guaranty Corp.

 

 

 

Year Ended December 31,

 

 

 

2004

 

2003

 

2002

 

2001

 

2000

 

Statutory Data

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

103.2

 

$

66.6

 

$

46.2

 

$

44.9

 

$

60.5

 

Policyholders’ surplus

 

$

236.7

 

$

255.6

 

$

287.0

 

$

334.0

 

$

323.4

 

Contingency reserve

 

518.4

 

400.0

 

307.0

 

223.1

 

180.6

 

Statutory capital

 

755.1

 

655.6

 

594.0

 

557.2

 

504.0

 

Unearned premium reserve

 

405.8

 

466.7

 

369.9

 

351.5

 

330.2

 

Present value of installment premiums

 

267.8

 

293.3

 

220.4

 

149.2

 

89.1

 

Premium resources

 

673.6

 

760.0

 

590.3

 

500.7

 

419.3

 

Loss and LAE reserves

 

31.8

 

55.0

 

40.8

 

20.5

 

15.0

 

Standby line of credit / stop loss

 

255.0

 

255.0

 

415.0

 

450.0

 

250.0

 

Total claims-paying resources

 

$

1,715.5

 

$

1,725.6

 

$

1,640.1

 

$

1,528.4

 

$

1,188.3

 

Statutory Financial Ratios

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and LAE ratio

 

-8.4

%

25.9

%

35.4

%

18.3

%

-0.7

%

Expense ratio

 

107.4

%

32.0

%

46.0

%

50.9

%

46.7

%

Combined ratio

 

99.0

%

57.9

%

81.4

%

69.2

%

46.0

%

Other Financial Information (end of period)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net debt service outstanding

 

$

105,831

 

$

117,406

 

$

113,074

 

$

108,135

 

$

87,363

 

Net par amount outstanding

 

74,001

 

78,399

 

72,259

 

69,178

 

56,557

 

 

22



 

Assured Guaranty Corp.

Consolidated GAAP Income Statements

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Quarter Ended
December 31,

 

% Change
versus

 

Year Ended
December 31

 

% Change
versus

 

 

 

2004

 

2003

 

4Q-03

 

2004

 

2003

 

2003

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenues

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

36.8

 

$

49.1

 

-25

%

$

168.7

 

$

219.9

 

-23

%

Net written premiums

 

16.9

 

48.9

 

-65

%

59.9

 

256.5

 

-77

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

38.2

 

45.0

 

-15

%

122.0

 

175.4

 

-30

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net investment income

 

13.1

 

12.4

 

6

%

52.1

 

47.2

 

10

%

Other income

 

0.2

 

0.3

 

-33

%

0.2

 

1.3

 

-85

%

Total revenues

 

$

51.5

 

$

57.7

 

-11

%

$

174.3

 

$

223.9

 

-22

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expenses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

1.8

 

17.9

 

-90

%

0.4

 

55.1

 

-99

%

Profit commission expenses

 

0.8

 

0.6

 

33

%

1.0

 

1.7

 

-41

%

Acquisition costs

 

9.0

 

8.5

 

6

%

34.3

 

46.6

 

-26

%

Other operating expenses

 

11.5

 

8.9

 

29

%

41.3

 

23.4

 

76

%

Goodwill impairment

 

 

 

 

1.6

 

 

NM

 

Total expenses

 

$

23.1

 

$

35.8

 

-35

%

$

78.6

 

$

126.7

 

-38

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income before provision for income taxes

 

28.4

 

21.9

 

30

%

95.7

 

97.2

 

-2

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total provision for income taxes

 

9.8

 

5.3

 

85

%

26.3

 

24.9

 

6

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating income (b)

 

$

18.6

 

$

16.6

 

12

%

$

69.4

 

$

72.3

 

-4

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After-tax net realized gains on investments

 

0.4

 

(0.1

)

NM

 

0.6

 

1.4

 

-57

%

After-tax unrealized gains on derivative instruments

 

9.1

 

20.0

 

-55

%

31.2

 

31.6

 

-1

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

28.0

 

$

36.5

 

-23

%

$

101.2

 

$

105.2

 

-4

%

 


Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

 

23



 

Assured Guaranty Corp.

Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of

 

 

 

December 31,
2004

 

December 31,
2003

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Assets

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed maturity securities available for sale, at fair value

 

$

1,172.3

 

$

1,126.7

 

Short-term investments, at cost, which approximates market

 

66.1

 

55.1

 

Total investments

 

1,238.4

 

1,181.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash and cash equivalents

 

2.8

 

18.0

 

Accrued investment income

 

14.5

 

14.0

 

Deferred acquisition costs

 

140.3

 

146.9

 

Premiums receivable

 

48.9

 

31.5

 

Prepaid reinsurance premiums

 

49.7

 

7.3

 

Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses

 

36.4

 

 

Unrealized gains on derivative financial instruments

 

29.4

 

 

Goodwill

 

85.4

 

87.1

 

Current income taxes receivable

 

 

 

Other assets

 

10.7

 

15.0

 

Total assets

 

$

1,656.5

 

$

1,501.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities and shareholder’s equity

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserve

 

$

369.3

 

$

389.0

 

Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses

 

118.4

 

106.3

 

Profit commissions payable

 

4.2

 

4.0

 

Reinsurance balances payable

 

64.9

 

5.2

 

Deferred income taxes

 

58.3

 

77.9

 

Unrealized losses on derivative financial instruments

 

 

6.4

 

Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts

 

 

18.5

 

Other liabilities

 

33.9

 

17.5

 

Total liabilities

 

649.0

 

624.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shareholder’s equity

 

 

 

 

 

Common stock

 

15.0

 

15.0

 

Additional paid-in capital

 

386.4

 

351.2

 

Accumulated other comprehensive income

 

42.7

 

45.3

 

Unearned stock grant compensation

 

(5.8

)

(2.8

)

Retained earnings

 

569.2

 

468.1

 

Total shareholder’s equity

 

1,007.5

 

876.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total liabilities and shareholder’s equity

 

$

1,656.5

 

$

1,501.6

 

 

24



 

Assured Guaranty Corp.

Fixed Income Investment Portfolio

as of December 31, 2004

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Amortized
Cost

 

Pre-Tax
Book
Yield

 

Fair Value

 

Duration

 

Annualized
Investment
Income

 

Fixed maturity securities available for sale:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies

 

$

9.6

 

3.9

%

$

9.7

 

1.6

 

$

0.4

 

Agency obligations

 

33.5

 

4.3

%

34.5

 

3.5

 

1.5

 

Foreign government securities

 

18.3

 

4.9

%

18.6

 

2.9

 

0.9

 

Obligations of states and political subdivisions

 

315.3

 

4.6

%

333.5

 

7.1

 

14.4

 

Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions

 

450.2

 

5.0

%

489.0

 

7.1

 

22.5

 

Corporate securities

 

70.9

 

5.2

%

73.9

 

4.7

 

3.7

 

Mortgage-backed securities:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pass-thrus

 

187.2

 

4.9

%

189.7

 

2.8

 

9.1

 

PACs

 

10.4

 

3.8

%

10.3

 

3.1

 

0.4

 

Asset-backed securities

 

12.7

 

4.3

%

13.1

 

2.3

 

0.5

 

Total fixed maturity securities available for sale

 

$

1,108.1

 

4.8

%

$

1,172.3

 

5.9

 

$

53.2

 

Short-term investments

 

66.1

 

1.8

%

66.1

 

 

1.2

 

Total investments

 

$

1,174.2

 

4.6

%

$

1,238.4

 

5.6

 

$

54.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fair Value

 

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maturity schedule:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Due within one year

 

$

5.8

 

0.5

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Due in one to five years

 

119.2

 

10.2

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Due in five to ten years

 

205.6

 

17.5

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Due in greater than ten years

 

641.7

 

54.7

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage-backed securities

 

200.0

 

17.1

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

$

1,172.3

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fair Value

 

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quality distribution:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Treasury and Government Obligations

 

$

9.7

 

0.8

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Agency Obligations

 

34.5

 

2.9

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

AAA/Aaa

 

844.4

 

72.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

AA/Aa

 

202.8

 

17.3

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

A/A

 

80.9

 

6.9

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

BBB/Baa

 

 

0.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

$

1,172.3

 

100.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

25



 

Assured Guaranty Corp.

Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2004:

 

Sector

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Avg. Rating (8)

 

Public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General obligation bonds

 

$

9,741

 

13.2

%

A+

 

Municipal utilities

 

8,515

 

11.5

%

A+

 

Tax backed

 

8,396

 

11.3

%

A+

 

Transportation

 

5,793

 

7.8

%

A

 

Healthcare

 

3,886

 

5.3

%

A

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

1,766

 

2.4

%

A-

 

Housing

 

1,135

 

1.5

%

AA-

 

Structured municipal (1)

 

1,041

 

1.4

%

AAA

 

Other public finance (2)

 

835

 

1.1

%

A-

 

Higher education

 

823

 

1.1

%

A+

 

Total public finance

 

$

41,931

 

56.7

%

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CDO’s (3)

 

$

14,425

 

19.5

%

AA+

 

Mortgage-backed & home equity

 

8,775

 

11.9

%

AA

 

Commercial receivables (4)

 

4,240

 

5.7

%

AA-

 

Consumer receivables (5)

 

3,051

 

4.1

%

A-

 

Other structured finance (6)

 

1,580

 

2.1

%

A+

 

Single name corporate CDS (7)

 

 

0.0

%

 

Total structured finance

 

$

32,071

 

43.3

%

AA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total net par outstanding

 

$

74,001

 

100.0

%

AA-

 

 


(1).  Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.

 

(2).  Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.

 

(3).  Collateralized debt obligations (CDO’s) are structured financings backed by a pool of investment grade assets. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

 

(4).  Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

 

(5).  Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

 

(6).  Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.

 

(7).  Single name corporate credit default swaps (CDS) includes CDS of investor-owned utilities.

 

(8).  Ratings are internally determined based on rating agency guidelines.

 

26



 

Assured Guaranty Corp.

Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution by ratings of financial guaranty portfolio

 

 

 

December 31, 2004

 

December 31, 2003

 

Ratings (1)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

22,726

 

30.7

%

$

22,268

 

28.4

%

AA/Aa

 

15,969

 

21.6

%

16,211

 

20.7

%

A/A

 

23,741

 

32.1

%

27,208

 

34.7

%

BBB/Baa

 

10,122

 

13.7

%

11,258

 

14.4

%

Below investment grade

 

1,443

 

2.0

%

1,454

 

1.9

%

 

 

$

74,001

 

100

%

$

78,399

 

100

%

 

Geographic distribution of financial guaranty portfolio, as of December 31, 2004

 

U.S.:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

California

 

$

5,658

 

7.6

%

New York

 

4,256

 

5.8

%

Texas

 

2,470

 

3.3

%

Illinois

 

2,401

 

3.2

%

Florida

 

2,225

 

3.0

%

New Jersey

 

1,933

 

2.6

%

Pennsylvania

 

1,700

 

2.3

%

Massachusetts

 

1,557

 

2.1

%

Puerto Rico

 

1,416

 

1.9

%

Washington

 

1,212

 

1.6

%

Other - Muni

 

11,383

 

15.4

%

Other - Non Muni

 

30,252

 

40.9

%

Total U.S.

 

$

66,464

 

89.8

%

 

International:

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

United Kingdom

 

$

4,011

 

5.4

%

Germany

 

754

 

1.0

%

Australia

 

428

 

0.6

%

Brazil

 

328

 

0.4

%

Italy

 

220

 

0.3

%

Other

 

1,796

 

2.4

%

Total International

 

$

7,537

 

10.2

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

$

74,001

 

100

%

 

Distribution by ratings of CDO and credit derivative exposures

 

 

 

December 31, 2004

 

December 31, 2003

 

Ratings (1)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

15,325

 

75.5

%

$

17,584

 

74.9

%

AA/Aa

 

2,807

 

13.8

%

2,342

 

10.0

%

A/A

 

1,494

 

7.4

%

2,420

 

10.3

%

BBB/Baa

 

574

 

2.8

%

1,011

 

4.3

%

Below investment grade

 

99

 

0.5

%

135

 

0.6

%

 

 

$

20,299

 

100

%

$

23,491

 

100

%

 


(1).  Assured Guaranty internal rating

 

27



 

Assured Guaranty Corp.

Non-Investment Grade Exposure

as of December 31, 2004

(dollars in millions)

 

Asset Type

 

Weighted Average
Remaining Life

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Average
Rating(8)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public Finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Transportation

 

19.3

 

$

374.1

 

BB

 

Healthcare

 

12.2

 

80.4

 

BB

 

General obligation bonds

 

11.2

 

47.3

 

BB+

 

Other public finance (1)

 

26.1

 

44.1

 

BB-

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

17.4

 

16.9

 

BB-

 

Municipal utilities

 

10.9

 

14.0

 

C

 

Tax backed

 

9.8

 

8.3

 

BB-

 

Housing

 

8.1

 

3.3

 

B

 

Higher education

 

11.3

 

1.0

 

BB+

 

Structured municipal (2)

 

 

 

 

Total Public finance

 

17.7

 

$

589.6

 

BB

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Structured Finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consumer receivables (3)

 

2.2

 

$

496.2

 

BB

 

Mortgage-backed and home equity

 

6.3

 

136.4

 

B-

 

Commercial receivables (4)

 

6.7

 

121.6

 

B

 

CDO’s (5)

 

3.3

 

99.3

 

B+

 

Other structured finance (6)

 

4.1

 

0.1

 

BB-

 

Single name corporate CDS (7)

 

 

 

 

Total structured finance

 

3.6

 

$

853.5

 

BB-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total exposure

 

9.4

 

$

1,443.1

 

BB-

 

 


(1).  Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.

 

(2).  Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in excess of the AAA rating level.

 

(3).  Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

 

(4).  Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

 

(5).  Collateralized debt obligations (CDO’s) are structured financings backed by a pool of investment grade assets. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

 

(6).  Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.

 

(7).  Single name corporate credit default swaps (CDS) includes CDS of investor-owned utilities.

 

(8).  Ratings are internally determined based on rating agency guidelines.

 

28



 

Assured Guaranty Corp.

25 Largest Public Finance Exposures

as of December 31, 2004

(dollars in millions)

 

Revenue Source

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Rating(1)

 

New Jersey State General Obligation & Leases

 

$

756

 

AA-

 

California State General Obligation & Leases

 

578

 

A-

 

New York State Metro Trans Auth

 

476

 

A

 

Denver Colorado Airport System

 

466

 

A

 

Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority

 

464

 

A-

 

Chicago Illinois General Obligation

 

463

 

A+

 

Long Island Power Authority

 

457

 

A-

 

Puerto Rico General Obligation & Leases

 

451

 

A-

 

Jefferson County Alabama Sewer

 

448

 

A

 

San Francisco California Airport

 

422

 

A

 

Massachusetts State General Obligation & Bay Transportation

 

420

 

AA-

 

New York State General Obligation

 

392

 

AA

 

Energy Northwest

 

390

 

AA-

 

New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority

 

386

 

AA+

 

New York City General Obligation

 

347

 

A

 

Los Angeles County Metro Trans

 

314

 

AA

 

Houston Texas Water & Sewer System

 

293

 

A+

 

Illinois State General Obligation & Leases

 

288

 

AA

 

Massachusetts State Turnpike Authority Metro

 

267

 

A-

 

Santee Cooper Revenue Bonds - South Carolina

 

261

 

AA-

 

Dade County Florida Water & Sewer System

 

261

 

A

 

Chicago Illinois Public Building - Board of Education

 

248

 

A+

 

Intermountain Power Agency

 

243

 

A+

 

Los Angeles California Unified School District

 

236

 

AA-

 

Pennsylvania State General Obligation

 

232

 

AA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total top 25 public finance exposures

 

$

9,558

 

 

 

 


(1).  Assured Guaranty internal rating

 

29



 

Assured Guaranty Corp.

25 Largest Structured Finance Exposures

as of December 31, 2004

(dollars in millions)

 

Revenue Source

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

Rating(1)

 

Park Place (Ameriquest) PPSI 2004-MHQ1 Class A-1

 

$

1,181

 

AAA

 

Ameriquest Mortgage Securities Inc. 2004-R10 A-1

 

831

 

AAA

 

Argent Securities Inc. 2004-W11 Class A-1

 

744

 

AAA

 

Structured Finance Corporate Pool

 

663

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG ABS

 

619

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

606

 

A+

 

Synthetic CDO - IG ABS

 

594

 

AAA

 

Bear Stearns ABS I Trust 2004-FR3 2-A

 

561

 

AAA

 

Synthetic Credit Card Master Trust

 

550

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

540

 

AAA

 

Argent Securities Inc. 2003-W6

 

513

 

BBB+

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

500

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

470

 

AA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

440

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

430

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

417

 

AAA

 

Field Point I & II, Limited

 

371

 

AA-

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

360

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

350

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

347

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

344

 

AAA

 

Providian Gateway Master Trust

 

327

 

IG/NIG(2)

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

313

 

BBB+

 

Synthetic Sub-Prime RMBS

 

305

 

AAA

 

Synthetic CDO - IG Corporate

 

281

 

AAA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total top 25 structured finance exposures

 

$

12,657

 

 

 

 


(1).  Assured Guaranty internal rating

(2).  $248 million of the net par for this credit has investment grade rating ranging from BBB- to BBB+ and $79 million of the net par has non-investment grade rating of BB+

 

30



 

Assured Guaranty Corp.

Statutory Capital and Claims Paying Resources

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of:

 

 

 

December 31,

 

December 31,

 

 

 

2004

 

2003

 

Statutory surplus and reserves

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserve

 

$

406

 

$

467

 

Contingency reserve

 

518

 

400

 

Policyholders’ surplus

 

237

 

256

 

Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves

 

32

 

55

 

Total policyholders’ surplus & reserves

 

$

1,193

 

$

1,178

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Claims paying resources

 

 

 

 

 

Policyholders’ surplus

 

$

237

 

$

256

 

Contingency reserve

 

518

 

400

 

Statutory capital

 

755

 

656

 

Unearned premium reserve

 

406

 

467

 

Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves

 

32

 

55

 

Total policyholders’ reserves

 

438

 

522

 

Present value of installment premium

 

268

 

293

 

Standby line of credit/stop loss

 

255

 

255

 

Total claims paying resources

 

$

1,716

 

$

1,726

 

 

31



 

Assured Guaranty Re International Ltd.

Consolidated GAAP Income Statements

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

Quarter Ended

 

% Change

 

Year Ended

 

% Change

 

 

 

December 31

 

versus

 

December 31

 

versus

 

 

 

2004

 

2003

 

4Q-03

 

2004

 

2003

 

2003

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenues

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross written premiums

 

$

47.4

 

$

(2.3

)

NM

 

$

82.9

 

$

139.5

 

-41

%

Net written premiums

 

44.1

 

109.0

 

-60

%

17.8

 

232.9

 

-92

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net earned premiums

 

18.5

 

41.5

 

-55

%

64.0

 

133.5

 

-52

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net investment income

 

10.5

 

12.0

 

-13

%

42.4

 

49.0

 

-13

%

Other income

 

 

1.4

 

NM

 

0.6

 

1.7

 

-65

%

Total revenues

 

$

29.0

 

$

54.9

 

-47

%

$

107.0

 

$

184.2

 

-42

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expenses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

 

(1.6

)

34.8

 

NM

 

(32.4

)

89.6

 

NM

 

Profit commission expenses

 

3.3

 

1.8

 

83

%

14.6

 

8.2

 

78

%

Acquisition costs

 

2.6

 

(1.2

)

NM

 

13.1

 

7.7

 

70

%

Other operating expenses

 

1.2

 

14.0

 

-91

%

12.5

 

29.4

 

-57

%

Total expenses

 

$

5.6

 

$

49.4

 

-89

%

$

7.8

 

$

134.8

 

-94

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income before provision for income taxes

 

23.4

 

5.5

 

325

%

99.2

 

49.4

 

101

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total provision for income taxes

 

1.1

 

(13.9

)

NM

 

7.5

 

(12.0

)

NM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating income (b)

 

$

22.3

 

$

19.4

 

15

%

$

91.7

 

$

61.4

 

49

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After-tax net realized gains on investments

 

0.3

 

0.1

 

200

%

7.1

 

2.4

 

196

%

After-tax unrealized gains on derivative instruments

 

2.7

 

43.3

 

-94

%

2.8

 

51.9

 

-95

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net income

 

$

25.2

 

$

62.8

 

-60

%

$

101.6

 

$

115.7

 

-12

%

 


Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP measures [PVP (a), operating income and operating ROE (b), and adjusted book value (c)].

 

32



 

Assured Guaranty Re International Ltd.

Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of

 

 

 

December 31,

 

December 31,

 

 

 

2004

 

2003

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Assets

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed maturity securities available for sale, at fair value

 

$

 785.7

 

$

 925.5

 

Short-term investments, at cost, which approximates market

 

103.3

 

80.8

 

Total investments

 

889.0

 

1,006.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash and cash equivalents

 

3.4

 

9.6

 

Accrued investment income

 

7.4

 

9.7

 

Deferred acquisition costs

 

46.0

 

28.3

 

Premiums receivable

 

56.9

 

128.6

 

Prepaid reinsurance premiums

 

9.1

 

7.7

 

Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses

 

88.4

 

122.5

 

Deferred tax asset

 

17.9

 

22.8

 

Current income tax receivable

 

4.9

 

4.0

 

Value of reinsurance business assumed

 

 

14.2

 

Unrealized gains on derivative financial instruments

 

14.3

 

12.1

 

Funds held under reinsurance contracts

 

5.7

 

6.5

 

Other assets

 

4.2

 

3.7

 

Total assets

 

$

 1,147.3

 

$

 1,376.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities and shareholder’s equity

 

 

 

 

 

Liabilities

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserve

 

$

 195.5

 

$

 240.4

 

Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses

 

112.3

 

416.3

 

Profit commissions payable

 

57.5

 

67.2

 

Reinsurance balances payable

 

13.1

 

1.3

 

Funds held by Company under reinsurance contracts

 

50.0

 

9.6

 

Other liabilities

 

25.9

 

8.9

 

Total liabilities

 

454.3

 

743.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shareholder’s equity

 

 

 

 

 

Common stock

 

1.4

 

1.4

 

Additional paid-in capital

 

388.0

 

386.2

 

Accumulated other comprehensive income

 

23.8

 

35.8

 

Unearned stock grant compensation

 

(1.1

)

(2.6

)

Retained earnings

 

280.9

 

211.5

 

Total shareholder’s equity

 

693.0

 

632.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total liabilities and shareholder’s equity

 

$

 1,147.3

 

$

 1,376.1

 

 

33



 

Assured Guaranty Re International Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2004:

 

Sector

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Avg. Rating (8)

 

Public finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

General obligation bonds

 

$

2,957

 

13.7

%

A+

 

Healthcare

 

2,713

 

12.6

%

A+

 

Municipal utilities

 

2,402

 

11.1

%

AA-

 

Tax backed

 

1,991

 

9.2

%

AA-

 

Transportation

 

1,094

 

5.1

%

A+

 

Investor-owned utilities

 

478

 

2.2

%

BBB+

 

Structured municipal (1)

 

325

 

1.5

%

AAA

 

Other public finance (2)

 

229

 

1.1

%

BBB+

 

Housing

 

201

 

0.9

%

A+

 

Higher education

 

148

 

0.7

%

AA-

 

Total public finance

 

$

12,538

 

58.1

%

A+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Structured finance

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage-backed & home equity

 

$

3,158

 

14.6

%

AA

 

CDO’s (3)

 

2,831

 

13.1

%

AAA

 

Single name corporate CDS (4)

 

1,624

 

7.5

%

A+

 

Commercial receivables (5)

 

584

 

2.7

%

A

 

Consumer receivables (6)

 

400

 

1.9

%

BBB

 

Other structured finance (7)

 

455

 

2.1

%

A

 

Total structured finance

 

$

9,053

 

41.9

%

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total net par outstanding

 

$

21,590

 

100.0

%

AA-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage guaranty risk in force

 

$

2,325

 

NA

 

NA

 

 


(1).  Structured municipal: includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits where the Company attached in  excess of the AAA rating level.

 

(2).  Other public finance: primarily includes student loans and government-sponsored project finance.

 

(3).  Collateralized debt obligations (CDO’s) are structured financings backed by a pool of investment grade assets. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

 

(4).  Single name corporate credit default swaps (“CDS”) includes CDS of Investor-owned utilities.

 

(5).  Commercial receivables: principally includes equipment leases and commercial mortgage-backed securities.

 

(6).  Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

 

(7).  Other structured finance: predominantly trade receivable securitization, secured structured lending, and future flow transactions.

 

(8).  Ratings are internally determined based on rating agency guidelines.

 

34



 

Assured Guaranty Re International Ltd.

Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 2)

(dollars in millions)

 

Distribution by ratings of financial guaranty portfolio

 

 

 

December 31, 2004

 

December 31, 2003

 

Ratings (1)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

6,971

 

32.3

%

$

4,106

 

45.0

%

AA/Aa

 

3,887

 

18.0

%

1,375

 

15.1

%

A/A

 

7,652

 

35.4

%

2,800

 

30.7

%

BBB/Baa

 

3,015

 

14.0

%

793

 

8.7

%

Below investment grade

 

66

 

0.3

%

50

 

0.6

%

 

 

$

21,590

 

100

%

$

9,125

 

100

%

 

Geographic distribution of financial guaranty portfolio, as of December 31, 2004

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

U.S.:

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

California

 

$

1,814

 

8.4

%

New York

 

1,239

 

5.7

%

Texas

 

731

 

3.4

%

Ohio

 

586

 

2.7

%

Florida

 

531

 

2.5

%

New Jersey

 

508

 

2.4

%

Washington

 

490

 

2.3

%

Illinois

 

475

 

2.2

%

Wisconsin

 

404

 

1.9

%

South Carolina

 

390

 

1.8

%

Other - Muni

 

6,856

 

31.8

%

Other - Non Muni

 

4,897

 

22.7

%

Total U.S.

 

$

18,922

 

87.6

%

 

 

 

Net Par

 

 

 

International:

 

Outstanding

 

%

 

United Kingdom

 

$

1,253

 

5.8

%

Germany

 

327

 

1.5

%

France

 

134

 

0.6

%

Japan

 

110

 

0.5

%

Netherlands

 

109

 

0.5

%

Other

 

736

 

3.4

%

Total International

 

$

2,668

 

12.4

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

$

21,590

 

100

%

 

Distribution by ratings of CDO and credit derivative exposures

 

 

 

December 31, 2004

 

December 31, 2003

 

Ratings (1)

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

Net Par
Outstanding

 

%

 

AAA/Aaa

 

$

4,888

 

66.7

%

$

3,119

 

84.4

%

AA/Aa

 

644

 

8.8

%

192

 

5.2

%

A/A

 

1,334

 

18.2

%

155

 

4.2

%

BBB/Baa

 

437

 

6.0

%

206

 

5.6

%

Below investment grade

 

29

 

0.4

%

24

 

0.6

%

 

 

$

7,332

 

100

%

$

3,695

 

100

%


(1).  Assured Guaranty internal rating

 

35



 

Assured Guaranty Re International Ltd.

Capital and Claims Paying Resources (1)

(dollars in millions)

 

 

 

As of:

 

 

 

December 31,

 

December 31,

 

 

 

2004

 

2003

 

Statutory surplus and reserves

 

 

 

 

 

Unearned premium reserve (2)

 

$

186

 

$

233

 

Contingency reserve

 

 

 

Policyholders’ surplus

 

596

 

560

 

Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves

 

103

 

390

 

Total policyholders’ surplus & reserves

 

$

885

 

$

1,183

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Claims paying resources

 

 

 

 

 

Policyholders’ surplus

 

$

596

 

$

560

 

Contingency reserve

 

 

 

Statutory capital

 

596

 

560

 

Unearned premium reserve (2)

 

186

 

233

 

Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves

 

103

 

390

 

Total policyholders’ reserves

 

289

 

623

 

Present value of installment premium

 

132

 

90

 

Standby line of credit/stop loss

 

 

 

Total claims paying resources

 

$

1,017

 

$

1,273

 

 


(1).  AGR numbers are our estimate of U.S. statutory as the company files Bermuda statutory financial statements

 

(2).  Unearned premium reserve for AGR is GAAP based and net of prepaid reinsurance premiums

 

36



 

Endnotes related to non-GAAP measures discussed in the operating supplement:

 


(a) PVP, which is a non-GAAP measure, represents gross premiums related to financial guaranty and mortgage guaranty contracts written in the current period, including upfront and installment premiums received on contracts written in the current period and the present value of estimated future installment premiums, discounted at 6% per year.   We use 6% as the present value discount because it is the approximate taxable equivalent yield on our investment portfolio for the periods presented.  Present value of installment premiums in-force, which is a non-GAAP measure, represents our future premiums on our in-force book of installment premium business in our financial guaranty direct and financial guaranty reinsurance segments. It is calculated net of reinsurance ceded and using a discount rate of 6%. We believe PVP and Present value of installment premiums in-force are useful measures for management, equity analysts and investors because they permits the evaluation of the value of new business production for Assured Guaranty by taking into account the value of installment premiums on new contracts underwritten in a reporting period, which the GAAP gross premiums written does not adequately measure.

 

(b) Operating income, which is a non-GAAP measure, is defined as net income excluding after-tax realized gains (losses) on investments and after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments.  Operating ROE represents operating income as a percentage of average shareholder’s equity, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI).  We believe the presentation of operating income and operating ROE enhances the understanding of our results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of our insurance business.  We exclude net realized gains (losses) on investments and net unrealized gains (losses) on derivative financial instruments because the amount of these gains (losses) is heavily influenced by, and fluctuates in part according to, the market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors that management cannot control or predict.  This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for net income determined in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP).

 

(c) Adjusted book value, which is a non-GAAP measure, is derived by beginning with shareholder’s equity (book value) and adding or subtracting the after-tax value of: the financial guaranty and mortgage guaranty net unearned premium reserve; deferred acquisition costs and the present value of estimated net future installment premiums (discounted at 6%).  The adjustments described above will not be realized until future periods and may differ materially from the amounts used in determining adjusted book value.  Management, investors and analysts use the calculation of adjusted book value to evaluate the net present value of the Company’s in-force premium and capital base.

 



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Investor contacts:

 

 

Sabra Purtill

 

 

(212) 408-6044

 

 

spurtill@assuredguaranty.com

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

 

 

30 Woodbourne Avenue

 

Chris McNamee

Hamilton HM 08 Bermuda

 

(212) 261-5509

www.assuredguaranty.com

 

cmcnamee@assuredguaranty.com