EX-99.(C)(2) 14 a2083653zex-99_c2.htm EXHIBIT 99(C)(2)
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Exhibit 99(c)(2)

LOGO   LOGO

Project Chicago

Board presentation
16 June 2002



Assumptions and Qualifications

    The conclusions in this report are based on the economic, regulatory, market and other conditions as in effect on, and the information made available to us as of, the date hereof. It should be understood that subsequent developments may affect these conclusions which we are under no obligation to update, revise or reaffirm.

    We have assumed and relied upon, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of the information that was publicly available or furnished to us by JSG, or otherwise reviewed by us for the purposes of this report, and we have not assumed and we do not assume any responsibility or liability therefore.

    In relying on publicly available financial forecasts from various equity research analysts, we have assumed that they have been reasonably prepared based on assumptions reflecting the best currently available estimates and judgments by such analysts as to the expected future results of operations and financial condition of JSG.

    We have relied upon the management and the other information reviewed in our due diligence as to the perceived benefits and strategic rationale of the proposed transaction to JSG and as to the reasonableness and achievability of the projected cost savings (including the assumptions and basis therefore) resulting from the proposed transaction and with the management's consent we have assumed that such projections, including without limitation projected cost savings resulting from the proposed transaction, reflect the best currently available estimates and judgements of the management and such projections and forecasts will be realised in the amounts and time periods contemplated thereby.

    We have not made or been provided with an independent evaluation or appraisal of the assets or liabilities (contingent or otherwise) of JSG nor have we made any physical inspection of the properties or assets of JSG.

    MDP and the Management have advised us, and we have assumed, that the final terms of the transaction documents will not vary materially from those set forth in the draft dated 16 June, 2002 reviewed by us.

    This report dated 16 June, 2002 reflects our formal report to the independent directors of JSG in connection with the MDP proposal. As a result, this report presents a complete summary of our advice to date and supersedes any prior preliminary reports and advice furnished previously to the independent directors from us. This report is provided solely for the benefit of the independent directors of JSG and is not on behalf of, and shall not confer rights or remedies upon, any holder of securities at JSG or any other person other than the independent directors of JSG. This report must not be used for any other purpose, or reproduced (other than for the independent directors of JSG and their advisors), disseminated or quoted at any time and in any manner without our prior consent, save that it may be reproduced and filed in its entirety with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. This report may not be relied upon by any third party for any purpose whatsoever.

1



Contents


Section 1

 

Introduction and MDP proposal

 

3

Section 2

 

Industry overview

 

7

Section 3

 

Trading value

 

14

Section 4

 

Takeover valuation

 

20

Section 5

 

Assessment of alternatives

 

37

Section 6

 

Summary

 

45

2



Introduction and MDP proposal


SECTION 1



MDP proposal

    €2.15 per fully diluted share, excluding SSCC shares

    SSCC shares to be distributed pro rata to JSG shareholders, one SSCC share per 16 JSG shares

    Proposal to be implemented via public offer simultaneously with court approved capital reduction

    LBO structure: Debt / Equity mix of 82% / 18%, reflects use of €125 million SPV re surplus assets

    Cash confirmation and financing to be provided by Deutsche Bank

Value per share

 
  (€)
MDP offer   2.15
SSCC shares(1)   1.11
   
Total value   3.26
   

Value of proposal

 
  (€m)
MDP offer   2,360
SSCC   1,276
   
Total value   3,636
   

Notes:

(1)
Based on a 20 day average SSCC share price of US$16.68 to 14 June and 20 day average $/€ rate of 0.9350 Actual value may be higher or lower based on actual SSCC trading price

(2)
Share price as at 12 June €3.15

(3)
Share price as date of approach announcement—€2.67

(4)
SSCC shares have traded in the range US$12.15-US$17.95 in the last 12 months ended 1 May 2002

4



Key conditions of MDP's proposal

    80% acceptances, waivable to 50%

    Competition clearances

    Ireland and other European countries

    HSR

    JSG shareholder approval of management participation

    Interconditional on distribution of SSCC shares

    No material adverse change prior to closing

    No materially misleading disclosure

    No undisclosed material environmental liabilities

    Net debt at the last month end prior to closing total being not in excess of specified amount which allows for a €200 million increase in working capital and general headroom of €100 million

5



Methodology and key assumptions

    We have reviewed the value of the business on a standalone basis, taking into account

    share price performance over the past five years and versus sector

    the premium of the offer versus the market price over the last three years

    its trading valuation versus the most comparable of its peers

    We have considered JSG's take-over value using the following methodologies

    comparable transaction precedents

    discounted cash flow

    leveraged buyout model

    We have carried out limited due diligence on Jefferson Smurfit. This has involved

    review of publicly available information, including audited financial statements

    a review of the transaction documents

    a review of management financial projections

    detailed discussions with management concerning certain aspects of the transaction and of valuation issues

    a review of maintainable EBITDA

    a review of MDP's due diligence documents (provided pursuant to Rule 20.3)

    we have assumed and relied, without independent verification, upon the accuracy and completeness of the information and data publicly available or furnished to, or otherwise discussed with, us from JSG

    We have reviewed industry trends to assess

    the prospects of the industry

    the likelihood of achieving the management financial projections

    We have taken into account an assessment of alternatives

6



Industry overview


SECTION 2



Market outlook

    Recent European demand for corrugated has been weak, with the market growing only 0.5% in 2001. Some recovery is anticipated in 2002, with volume growth forecast at 2%

    Though corrugated and containerboard prices have fallen, in comparison to previous downturns prices have been more resilient, particularly in comparison to pulp (NBSK) as can be seen in the chart on the next page. This is primarily due to improved supply discipline, capacity reduction (particularly in US) helped by higher levels of industry consolidation and, to an extent, the weak Euro

    This has allowed a good level of industry profitability in 2001, further helped by the low price of waste paper (the key raw material for waste based containerboard, representing approximately 70% of European capacity)

    Currently the industry is in a state of flux. It is seeking to implement €40-60 / tonne price rises in containerboard, both to recover substantially higher waste paper costs, which have risen in response to increased demand, particularly in Asia, and to compensate for price falls in early 2002. Though initial indications are positive, the implementation of this, and any future price rises is uncertain

    The key to any long term price improvement and industry profitability is the implementation of price increases in corrugated packaging. Typically, this happens 1-2 months after a rise in containerboard prices

    The corollary of the more resilient pricing is that future price increases are expected to be more limited. Hence there is unlikely to be a major upswing in profitability as was experienced in 1995

    One factor likely to dampen the potential for higher prices is increased waste based containerboard capacity coming on stream (Palm 600kt in 2002, Mossburger and Jass 600 kt combined in 03/04) which will lead to greater excess capacity. To maintain pricing will require ongoing supply discipline

    A weaker dollar may lead to some imports of Kraftliner from North America and may limit price expansion of Kraftliner in Euro terms

8



Sector update


European pricing outlook

         LOGO

Source:    UBS Warburg estimates (June 2002)

9



Consolidation

    The corrugated industry continues to consolidate, with all the leading players building operations through acquisitions

    the market share of the top three producers is now 37% compared to 19% in 1997

    however, the market remains relatively fragmented, with a significant number of private companies

    It is anticipated that the consolidation process will continue as

    high regional market shares (25%+) provide significant operational and market benefits

    companies seek to integrate so as to balance their paper manufacturing and corrugated conversion operations

    companies seek to expand their pan-European presence both to supply on pan-European basis and to "follow" key customers as they streamline their European production operation

    operational and market synergies from consolidation can be achieved

    Additionally, given the low growth nature of the European corrugated market (2-4%) and long term trend of real price decline, company growth can only be achieved through consolidation

10


Consolidation (continued)

European corrugated and containerboard producers

         LOGO

Source: SCA estimates

11


Consolidation (continued)

Top ten European paper companies by market capitalisation

         LOGO

Ranking

 
  1996
  (US$bn)
   
  2002
  (US$bn)
1   StoraEnso   4.3   1   StoraEnso   11.6
2   SCA   3.8   2   UPM-Kymmene   9.1
3   UPM-Kymmene   3.0   3   SCA   7.8
4   JSG   2.9   4   Sappi   3.0
5   AssiDomän   2.7   5   JSG   2.6
6   Holmen   2.4   6   Norske Skog   2.4
7   KNP BT   2.3   7   Holmen   1.9
8   Sappi   1.9   8   M-real   1.4
9   David S Smith   1.4   9   Portucel   1.0
10   Metsä-Serla   1.0   10   DS Smith   0.8

Source:    Datastream (10 June 2002)

    The paper and packaging sector continues to consolidate, as investors increasingly demand larger, and more liquid stocks. Though JSG has only dropped by one in the rankings since 1996, it was then of a similar size to the top 3, but is now approximately a third of the size of the third player

12



JSG relative position

    JSG's track record of a very disciplined approach to capex, preferring to buy rather than build, has led to a good return on invested capital, but with the quality of its asset base being viewed as average

    asset base in line / above DS Smith but inferior to SCA

    JSG has also suffered from UK difficulties and it is perceived to need to rationalise its smaller mills/plants

    JSG does, however, have a number of additional positives

    one of only three companies to have a good pan-European platform (others being Kappa and SCA)

    leading European Kraftliner producer with two worldclass Kraftliner mills (Facture and Nettingsdorfer)

    geographic diversity from Latin American and North American operations (33% of sales in 2001), though investors place a higher risk factor on Latin American operations

    From a competitive perspective, JSG's major competitors fall into two groups

    large quoted companies such as SCA and Mondi / Anglo American Corporation

    private, family controlled companies, not subject to equity market discipline, operating on a regional basis often with new, low cost operations such as Palm, Saica, Emin Leydier Prowell

    the one exception is Kappa, which is of a similar size to JSG but has historically invested more heavily in its operations and thus is both low cost and focused

LOGO

Source:    SCA estimates, company reports

Note:    Numbers indicate No. of machines, includes new Palm machine

13



Trading value


SECTION 3



Share price performance

         LOGO

Source:    Datastream (competitors and index rebased to JSG share price), 1 May 2002

    Over the five year period the JSG share price has increased by 29%. The sector has increased by 55%

    The share price as at 1 May of €2.67 implies a pre-announcement value for the core business ex-SSCC of €1.55 / share

15



Trading multiples

 
  EV / EBITDA
  EV / EBITA
 
  2001
(x)

  2002
(x)

  2003
(x)

  2001
(x)

  2002
(x)

  2003
(x)

European                        
  DS Smith   5.8   5.6   5.1   10.4   10.1   8.9
  SCA   6.5   6.5   6.2   10.4   9.8   9.1
  StoraEnso   6.8   7.0   5.5   11.4   12.5   8.8
  JSG (consensus)(1)(2)   4.8   5.1   4.7   7.5   8.5   7.2
US                        
  PCA   7.1   8.7   6.6   11.0   15.7   10.2
  SSCC   8.9   10.6   6.6   15.7   18.6   9.1

Notes:

(1)
As at close on 1 May 2002, JSG ex SSCC, 10% discount applied to value of SSCC

(2)
This assumes JSG analyst consensus EBITDA forecast of €644 million in 2002 and €705 million in 2003

JSG has consistently traded at, and we believe is likely to continue to trade at, a discount to its peers in its current form due to:

business mix

holding company discount

SSCC stake gives no cash flow

Irish shareholder base reducing weighting—selling on strength

perceived inability to rationalise certain costs and realise certain assets

unfavourable shareholder perception

16



SSCC share price performance

         LOGO

    SSCC is a large, well researched US stock with good liquidity in its shares

    SSCC is listed on NASDAQ and SEC registered

    It has traded in the range US$9.63-US$25.06 in the last three years

17



Selected analysts' view

Broker

  Date
  Pre-announcement
target
(€)

  Recommendation
  2002E EBITDA
  Take out price targets
ABN AMRO   21-Feb-02   3.30   Buy   651(2)   €3.30-3.50 (14-May-02)
CSFB   21-Feb-02     Hold   654(2)   €3.40-3.65 (13-May-02)
SSSB   08-Apr-02   2.90   Neutral   593(2)   €3.20 (10-May-02)
Deutsche   Feb-02   3.44   Strong Buy
(Assumes US re-rating)
       
Merrill Lynch   22-Feb-02   3.90   Strong Buy   579(1)   €3.90-4.20 (09-May-02)
UBS Warburg   26-Apr-02   3.10   Strong Buy   505(1)    
Goodbody   25-Feb-02   2.50   Hold   510(1)   €3.50 (09-May-02)
Merrion   30-Apr   3.00            
NCB   22-Feb-02   3.30   Buy   490(1)    
Davy   21-Feb-02   3.00     546(1)    
JSG projection as
of April 2002
          562(1) / 634(2)    

Source:    Published analysts' reports


Notes:

(1)
Excludes Munksjö

(2)
Includes Munksjö

(3)
Assumes 0.9 € / US$ for US$ price targets

18



Implied trading value (JSG ex SSCC)

    Given JSG's business mix, we believe a fair trading value for JSG core (ex SSCC) should be at a modest premium to DS Smith and a discount to SCA—the key competitor companies

    We believe a range of 5.6 -5.8x 2002 EBITDA and 5.1-5.4x 2003 EBITDA and 9.8-10.0x 2002 EBITA and 8.8-9.0x 2003 EBITA would generate a fair trading range. This would imply a trading value range for JSG ex SSCC of €1.80-2.05

    The historic share price performance suggests that such a trading value is unlikely to be achieved in the absence of significant corporate / strategic change due in part to the factors outlined on page 16

19



Takeover valuation


SECTION 3



Offer premium analysis

         LOGO

Source:    Datastream, 1 May 2002

    The €2.15 per share offer represents a 38% premium to the core JSG share price prior to the approach announcement (22% including SSCC)

    On a 6 month average basis, the proposal represents a 54% premium to the core value (28% including SSCC)

21



Historic share price highs and lows

 
  JSG ex SSCC
  Offer price premium
(%)

2 years        
High   1.56   38
Low   0.84   155
Mean   1.19   81

1 year

 

 

 

 
High   1.56   38
Low   0.97   122
Mean   1.25   71

6 months

 

 

 

 
High   1.56   38
Low   1.17   84
Mean   1.39   54

3 months

 

 

 

 
High   1.56   38
Low   1.35   59
Mean   1.47   46

1 day(1)

 

1.56

 

38

Note:

(1)
As at 1 May 2002, the day prior to the approach announcement

The offer value of €2.15 per share represents a premium of 38% to the maximum core JSG share price on a two year view

The two year average premium is 81%

22



Management projections1, 2

(€m)

  2001PF
  2002PF
  2003F
  2004F
  2005F
  2006F
 
Sales   5,176   4,854   5,163   5,490   5,587   5,387  
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total EBITDA   677 (2) 651 (2) 698   788   807   686  
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
  growth (%)       (3.3 ) 7.3   12.9   (2.4 ) (15.0 )
  margin (%)   13.0   13.4   13.5   14.4   14.4   12.7  
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total EBIT   405   383   415   505   524   403  
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
Analyst consensus EBITDA(2)   677   644   705              
Capex(3)   217   218   226   233   238   242  

Notes:

(1)
We have been advised by the management that such projections were reasonably prepared on bases reflecting the best available estimates and judgements of the management as to the future performance as of April 2002. See page 25 for discussion of current trading

(2)
Adjusting from full year figures for one off items and 12 months of Munksjö, detailed in Appendix 1

(3)
Adjusted from management projections to grow in line with inflat ion from 2004

The projections shown above were provided by management to MDP as part of MDP's due diligence exercise

The projections have been prepared by the corporate planning department to provide a view of the likely EBITDA outcomes that may be generated over the period of the projections

The projections are based on a top down analysis of the business extrapolating from 2001 historic data based on management assumptions of price over a cycle, volume, margins and ongoing operational cost take outs

The projections were not prepared in line with the company's normal budget setting process and as such do not constitute budgeted or forecast numbers

23



Other key valuation assumptions

Key assumptions

  (€m)
 
Net debt post Munksjö   1,579 (1)
Minorities (market value)   191  
Shares in issue undiluted (m)   1,086  
Shares in issue diluted (m)   1,141 (2)

Note:

(1)
Pro forma—see Appendix 1

(2)
Expected diluted shares In issue Sept1-15 2002

Our valuation is based in part on the above projections which were prepared by management taking into account that they fall within the range of analyst consensus forecasts as adjusted

We have discussed with management the reasonableness of the projections and the current trading environment

Our valuation has taken into account the value of certain associ ates and non-core / non-operating assets

Net debt is sensitive to currency fluctuations—a 1 cent increase in the value of the Euro decreases debt by c. €10 million

24



Current trading

    The 2002 projections are highly dependent on achieving announced price increases for paper and some increase in corrugated prices.

    At the end of April, results were marginally ahead of budget and in line with 2001

    Trading in May was below monthly budget:
    waste paper prices are currently high

    JSG has been unable to pass on cost increases, causing a profit squeeze

    June and July are expected to be difficult months
    The overhang of new capacity, e.g. Palm Mill, may result in delay or reduction of assumed price increases

    Management believes that there is a greater chance of missing budget than exceeding based on current trading trends
    if price increases do not occur when expected or wastepaper prices increase further the budget may not be achieved
    In addition, there is a risk of incurring losses in the Argentinean business due to the current difficult economic situation in that country

    There is some risk that a weaker dollar may lead to some imports from the US

25



Additional value—associates / trade investment

Key investments

Duropack
Lecta
Lee Fung Asco
Navarra
Sultana
    JSG has a number of associate investments and one large trade investment

    Certain of these investments are publicly listed while others are private companies

    Based on market values/private company valuations, the gross value of these investments is approximately €191 million

    The values are based on management estimates. We have reviewed these estimates for the larger assets for reasonableness

    We understand that these assets have not been sold previously because they are strategic investments, for example in China, and / or are important consumers of JSG produced Linerboard

    Given the illiquidity of the assets, the trading importance and the size of holdings, we have applied a discount of 20% to arrive at an estimate of the realisable value for JSG of €153 million

    This is equal to 13c per share and this value of associates is reflected in all our valuation analysis

26



Non-core assets and non-operating assets

    Management have provided us with a list of non-core and non-operating assets, which may be sold after the offer or which are in the process of being sold

    we have reviewed the valuations of the major assets based on third party valuation reports or contracted sale terms, as appropriate

    the gross valuation of these assets is €261 million

    we have received confirmation from management that all non-operating assets have been identified

    Incorporating a discount for the realisability of the assets implies a value for these assets of €181m, equal to 16c per share

    This value has been included in our precedents, DCF and LBO valuations, but not in the trading value since the market is unlikely to ascribe value to these assets unless sold

    Where appropriate, we have adjusted management projections to take account of the EBITDA attributable to the assets, to avoid double counting

27



Cost savings

    As part of the process of developing the proposal with MDP, management have estimated the potential cost reduction that might be achieved following a transaction

    This falls broadly into two categories

    cost savings that can be made once JSG is no longer operated as a public listed company (cost savings)

    cost efficiencies if the business were to be run with a view to cash flow maximisation (cost efficiencies)

    The value of these cost reductions (savings and efficiencies) in total is estimated to be €22m in 2003 rising to almost €34 million p.a. in 2006, of which €11m are attributable to costs savings and €23m to cost efficiencies

    We have incorporated these cost savings and efficiencies into the LBO model

    We have not included the cost savings in the DCF as these may not be achievable to JSG in its current form.

    We have calculated the value of the cost efficiencies on a DCF basis for indicative purposes although there is no certainty that such efficiencies can be achieved

28



Precedent transactions analysis

Key precedents

  Ann.
date

  EV
(€m)

  EV / LTM
EBITDA
(x)

  EV / LTM
EBITA
(x)

La Rochette   Jan-02   265   6.4   10.5
Assi Corrugated   Mar-01   1,146   5.9   9.1
Munksjö   Jan-02   569   7.0   11.6
Kappa   Feb-98   1,541   7.2   13.3
    There are almost no directly comparable precedent transactions

    We believe one of the best precedents is the Assi transaction given its similar business mix and size. It is also relatively recent making the multiples more comparable in this cyclical industry

    The Assi paper assets are mainly European whereas the JSG business includes Latin American assets (c. 20% of 2002 EBITDA) which in general would attract a lower multiple. In addition Kappa would have enjoyed significant synergies in the Assi transaction

    La Rochette was a smaller and more specialised business which would probably command a premium value to JSG. Similarly Munksjö has a different business mix focused on specialty papers, Munksjö multiple is inflated to non-recurring operational difficulties and lack of contribution from immediately available new capacity

    The Kappa transaction is generally perceived as a premium price which was paid for higher quality assets than JSG with a less cyclical and better growth profile

29



Multiples implied by MDP proposal

EBITDA multiple (excl. value of non-operating assets)

EBITA

  2.10
  2.15
  2.30
  2.50
2001   €677m   5.8x   5.8x   6.1x   6.4x
2002   €651m   6.0x   6.1x   6.3x   6.7x
LTM   €664m   5.9x   6.0x   6.2x   6.5x
    The offer multiple is broadly in line with the Assi precedent on an EBITDA basis

    If the value of the non-operating and non-core assets is included in the calculation, the multiple is reduced by 0.3x

    If costs are included in the calculation the multiple increases by 0.3x

30



Multiples implied by MDP proposal (continued)

EBITA multiple (excl. value of non-operating assets)

EBITDA
  2.10
  2.15
  2.30
  2.50
2001   €405m   9.6x   9.8x   10.2x   10.7x
2002   €391m   10.0x   10.1x   10.6x   11.1x
LTM   €398m   9.8x   10.0x   10.4x   10.9x
    The offer multiple represents a premium to the Assi precedent on an EBITDA basis

    If the value of the non-operating and non-core assets is included in the calculation, the multiple is reduced by 0.4x

    If costs are included in the calculation the multiple increases by 0.3x

31



DCF

Key assumptions

  Capex growth   2%     Associates   €153m
  Tax rate   33%     Non-operating assets   €181m
 
  WACC
   
  WACC
Perpetual growth

  EBITDA multiple

  8.5%
  9.0%
  9.5%
  8.5%
  9.0%
  9.5%
0%   2.04   1.87   1.72   5.5x   2.26   2.17   2.08
1%   2.25   2.05   1.87   5.75x   2.34   2.25   2.16
2%   2.52   2.27   2.06   6.0x   2.42   2.33   2.23
    The WACC of the JSG business is estimated at c. 9.0%, depending on underlying CAPM assumptions

    A significant proportion of the value of the DCF is in the terminal value, making the result highly sensitive to the terminal value growth assumption

    The addition of the cost efficiencies detailed earlier would increase the value by c. 20-25c, if achieved

32



LBO analysis

Our key assumptions (based on €2.15 / share offer)

Total debt (€m)—82%   3,340   Annual LBO cost savings by 2005 (€m)   31
Total equity (€m)—18%   732   Non operating assets (€m)   181
   
       
    4,072   % free equity to management   8
   
       
2001 EBITDA entry multiple (x)   6.0   Costs and fees on exit (%)   5
Net debt / 2001 EBITDA (x)   4.7   Associate value on exit (€m)   153
2002 EBITDA / interest cover (x)   2.5   Projections—as per management    
Fees on acquisition (%)   4.6 % Mid-cycle adjusted EBITDA—2005 (€m)   731
    We have modelled the LBO based on the financing assumptions in the latest proposal from MDP and taking management projections and estimates

    We have derived the implied IRR for the investment, assuming an exit in either 2005 or 2006

    The critical determinent of IRR is the exit EBITDA multiple. We have selected a multiple range and applied this to 2005 and 2006 projected EBITDA and an estimated "mid cycle" EBITDA, which takes account of the cyclicality of the business

33



LBO—IRR analysis

2005 IRR

 
  Offer value (€)
 
Exit multiple

 
  2.10
  2.15
  2.20
  2.30
 
5.50x   32.4 % 29.1 % 26.1 % 20.9 %
5.75x   36.5 % 33.0 % 29.9 % 24.6 %
6.00x   40.2 % 36.7 % 33.5 % 28.0 %

2006 IRR

 
  Offer value (€)
 
Exit multiple

 
  2.10
  2.15
  2.20
  2.30
 
5.50x   16.7 % 14.5 % 12.4 % 8.8 %
5.75x   19.8 % 17.4 % 15.3 % 11.7 %
6.00x   22.5 % 20.2 % 18.0 % 14.3 %

Mid-cycle adjusted EBITDA 2005 IRR

 
  Offer value (€)
 
Exit multiple

 
  2.10
  2.15
  2.20
  2.30
 
5.50x   18.3 % 15.3 % 12.6 % 8.0 %
5.75x   22.8 % 19.8 % 17.0 % 12.2 %
6.00x   27.1 % 23.9 % 21.0 % 16.0 %

34



LBO (continued)

    The exit EBITDA multiple range selected is 5.5x—6.0x

    The lower end of the range reflects a possible IPO exit multiple

    this represents a significant re-rating from current trading multiples, net of an IPO discount which may be as high as 10-20%

    The high end of the range represents a potential take out multiple, which may be achieved through a future sale of the business assuming a willing buyer exists

    Given the high level of gearing implied by the financing package and the inherent risk in purchasing a cyclical business, we would expect MDP to be seeking an IRR in excess of 25%

    On the basis of a mid cycle exit the current price of €2.15 would represent a return of 15.5%—24.0% based on multiples of 5.5x-6.0x

35



Valuation of JSG ex SSCC—summary

         LOGO


Notes:

Value is pre SSCC but including associates

(1)
As at 1 May, day prior to announcement

(2)
Includes non-operating and non-core assets

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Assessment of alternatives


SECTION 4



Overview of alternatives

    In forming our view of the financial terms of the MDP proposal, we have had regard to the strategic alternatives that have been investigated by the company, namely:

    status quo

    sell SSCC and use proceeds to repay debt/tidy up portfolio

    spin-off SSCC

    sell the company to another bidder

    Given the historic discount that JSG's shares have suffered and management's publicly stated intention to increase shareholder value, we do not believe that the status quo option is viable

    We believe the failure to reach agreement with MDP or any other party would have a significantly detrimental impact on the share price given the absence of any bidder and the unwinding of the position of arbitrageurs

    JSG's principal strategic alternative is a sale or spin-off of its SSCC stake. This is considered in more detail in this section

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Overview of alternatives (continued)

    In March, April and May 2001 representatives of JSG and SSCC had discussions on the possible combination of both companies. A number of transaction structures were explored but the representatives were unable to find a formula which they believed would properly value their respective companies. Accordingly, discussions terminated in early May 2001

    In late autumn 1999, JSG was contacted by an unaffiliated third party with respect to the possibility of a transaction in which the third party would merge with JSG following the Spin-Off of JSG's shares in SSCC to JSG Shareholders. Discussions were held intermittently in 1999 and 2000 and led to a series of discussions held over a number of weeks in May/June 2001 between JSG, the third party and their respective advisers. These discussions were terminated in mid-June 2001 by mutual agreement when the third party concluded that it could not effectively value the JSG Shares at more than €1.90 plus the distribution of the SSCC Shares

    MDP's formal approach was conditional on JSG agreeing not to solicit alternative proposals, subject to JSG's obligations under the Irish Takeover Code, during the period that MDP required to perform due diligence and formulate a proposal. Accordingly, UBS Warburg and IBI were not asked to and did not solicit alternatives. However, JSG did make MDP's formal approach public on May 2 in accordance with its obligations to the Irish Stock Exchange

    Since the announcement on 2 May of MDP's approach, one other preliminary approach has been received from an unaffiliated financial party. At present, this party has requested detailed information under Rule 20. This information is being provided by the Independent Committee. At present there can be no assurance that this approach will lead to an offer

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Sale or spin off of SSCC stake

    The SSCC stake represents a significant component of the current JSG share price. The lack of dividend payments by SSCC has resulted in the asset acting as a constraint on JSG's financial flexibility to grow through further acquisitions

    One alternative would be for JSG to sell its stake in SSCC and use the proceeds to repay debt and tidy up its portfolio

    We consider it unlikely that there is a trade buyer who would be willing/capable of acquiring the stake given its size, regulatory issues and the current financial status of the most likely acquirors. To date the Company has not been approached by a third party in relation to this stake

    Accordingly, we believe that the most likely way to achieve a sale is through a secondary sale of the stake in the market. We have modelled the value to JSG of this option

    Our value analysis is predicated on achieving a re-rating of the JSG core post sale, reflecting the reduction of the holding company discount and JSG's improved financial flexibility. Taking account of this re-rating, our analysis shows a value of more than 10% below the MDP proposal

    We have also reviewed the pros and cons of a spin-off. While technically feasible, it raises no proceeds for JSG and the company would remain financially constrained

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Sell SSCC stake

... pay down debt, buyback and restructure portfolio

    Sale of c. €1,000 million of SSCC at 10% discount

    we believe this is the maximum that could be sold in the market at any one time

    Buyback of €200 million to counteract flowback

    €219 million net cost for sale of Canada and purchase of SSCC Europe

    Re-rating of core business by market

    base assumption; 10% rerating to 5.6x 2002 EBITDA multiple

 
  (€m)
 
Net proceeds of sale   900  
Acquisition / disposal   (219 )
Buyback   (200 )
Paydown   (481 )
   
 
EV / EBITDA (x)   5.6  
Core 2002 EBITDA   651  
PF 2002 EBITDA   666  
EV   3,731  
Minorities   (65 )
Adjusted net debt   (1,098 )
Equity value   2,568  
   
 

Equity value per share

 

 

 
Re-rated core share price   2.36  
Buy back value   0.18  
Associates   0.13  
SSCC rump (€281m)   0.26  
   
 
Total(1)(2)   2.94  

Notes:

(1)
Based on 1,086 share in issue

(2)
Does not include 16c of non-operating assets

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Re-rating potential

    The value increase of this alternative is driven principally by the re-rating assumption

    a 10% re-rating as assumed in the number on the previous page from 5.0x-5.6x equates to c. 35c per share

    If JSG were to be re-rated to EBITDA multiples of 5.4x-5.8x, the values implied by our analysis would range from €2.80-€3.05 / share

    The re-rating will be driven by the reduction in the holding company discount and improved financial flexibility

    Various factors may result in delay in achieving this re-rating

    need to communicate new strategy

    churn in shareholder base

    need to rationalise portfolio

    There is considerable market and execution risk underlying this alternative

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Analysis of sale of SSCC shares

Pros

  Cons

  Clears up complex structure     JSG may not get re-rating
  Break up crystallises value of stake / value of core business     Execution risk
  Positive move after period of speculation     Selling pressure from US holders uninterested in European play
  Gives JSG financial flexibility     Large sale may not get full value for stake
  No tax cost to shareholders since no distribution     Indicates JSG will not be a US player in short / medium term
          Communication of new strategy may prove challenging given current investor positioning
          Sale of stake will need shareholder approval
          Remaining SSCC stake to be sold

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Issues regarding spin off of SSCC shares

Pros

  Cons

  Simple     Higher gearing
  Minimal execution risk     Debt covenants may be broken
  Shareholders who invested to gain exposure to SSCC receive shares       • threat to investment grade status
  100% exit will give clarity to core JSG     No cash to fund strategic moves
    • although no ongoing US exposure     Re-rating difficult due to financial constraints

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Summary


SECTION 6


    The key reasons that the MDP offer is fair and reasonable from a financial point of view are

    the relatively high premium of the offer for core JSG compared to the pre-announcement price

    the offer price falls within a fairness range taking account of standard valuation methodologies

    the uncertain industry conditions

    the strategic difficulties facing the Company in respect of the SSCC holding

    the continuing undervaluation of the Company

    the likely share price impact of no deal

    a previous approach by an industrial party led to a lower offer price

    the merger discussions with SSCC failed

    the absence of a competing higher offer, notwithstanding public disclosure of MDP's approach

    the proposed transaction terms with MDP require 80% acceptances and do not preclude a bid from a third party

    A sale of the Company other than to MDP remains a credible alternative

    the public announcement on 2 May regarding the discussions with MDP has alerted the market to the possibility of a transaction

    the Irish Take-over Code provides that any other bona fide offeror has the right to access the same information as provided to MDP

    the Independent Directors have the right to assess and recommend other offers that it may receive

    The announcement of a transaction with MDP, taking account of the irrevocable undertakings it is seeking, will not prevent another bidder making an offer until such time as the offer is declared unconditional

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Appendix 1


FINANCIAL SCHEDULES



Net debt schedule—estimated as at 30 June 2002

Net debt (Euro)

  (€m)
 
Leases   24 m
Adjustments from Penguin   426 m
Debt—31 Dec 2001   1,554 m
Cash   (440 )m
Deferred acquisition costs   63 m
Cash flow to July 02 (net of final dividends inclusive of exchange adjustments)   (73 )m
Cash locked in the business   25 m
   
 
Total   1,579 m
   
 

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EBITDA schedule

Year ending Dec

  Pro forma 2001
  Management projected 2002
 
Operating income subsidiaries   333.9      
Depreciation, depletion and amortisation   238.7      
   
     
EBITDA (as reported)   572.6      
Impairment of fixed assets   26.6      
Reorganisation and restructuring costs   23.8      
   
 
 
Pre-exceptional EBITDA   623.0   561.9  
Europe non-recurring   (7.6 ) 0.0  
LatAm non-recurring   (15.0 ) 0.0  
US and Canada non-recurring   (4.9 ) 0.0  
Group Centre non-recurring   (11.0 ) 0.0  
   
 
 
Recurring EBITDA   584.5   561.9  
EBITDA of voting assets sold   9.6   (4.7 )
EBITDA of non-core operating assets sold   0.0   (1.7 )
   
 
 
EBITDA adjusted for businesses sold   594.1   555.6  
Munksjö full year EBITDA   83.0   95.5  
   
 
 
    677.1   651.1  
   
 
 

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Contact information

UBS Warburg Ltd.
1 Finsbury Avenue
London, EC2M 2PP

Tel: +44-20-7567 8000

www.ubswarburg.com

UBS Warburg Ltd. is a subsidiary of UBS AG
UBS Warburg is a business group of UBS AG

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This material has been prepared by the division, group, subsidiary or affiliate of UBS AG ("UBS") identified herein. In certain countries UBS AG is referred to as UBS SA. UBS Warburg is a business group of UBS AG.

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This material has also been prepared by IBI Corporate Finance Limited ("IBI"). IBI is a subsidiary of the Investment Bank of Ireland Limited which is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland.

This material is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. It has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. It is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. References made to third parties are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate. It should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. Any opinions expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and may differ

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