thg-10k_20181231.htm

Indicate by check mark if the registrant is a well-known seasoned issuer, as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act. Yes ☒ No ☐

Indicate by check mark if the registrant is not required to file reports pursuant to Section 13 or Section 15(d) of the Act. Yes ☐ No ☒

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days. Yes ☒ No ☐

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant has submitted electronically every Interactive Data File required to be submitted pursuant to Rule 405 of Regulation S-T during the preceding 12 months. Yes ☒ No ☐

Indicate by check mark if disclosure of delinquent filers pursuant to Item 405 of Regulation S-K is not contained herein, and will not be contained, to the best of the registrant’s knowledge, in definitive proxy or information statements incorporated by reference in Part III of this Form 10-K or any amendment to this Form 10-K. ☒

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, a non-accelerated filer, a smaller reporting company, or an emerging growth company. See the definitions of “large accelerated filer,” “accelerated filer,” “smaller reporting company,” and “emerging growth company” in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act.

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Act). Yes ☐ No ☒

Based on the closing sales price of June 29, 2018, the aggregate market value of the voting and non-voting common stock held by non-affiliates of the registrant was $5,058,103,806.

The number of shares outstanding of the registrant’s common stock, $0.01 par value, was 40,573,500 shares as of February 15, 2019.

Portions of The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.’s Proxy Statement to be filed pursuant to Regulation 14A relating to the 2019 Annual Meeting of Shareholders to be held May 14, 2019 are incorporated by reference in Part III.

The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (“THG”) is a holding company organized as a Delaware corporation in 1995. We trace our roots to as early as 1852, when the Hanover Fire Insurance Company was founded. Our primary business operations are property and casualty insurance products and services. We market our products and services through independent agents and brokers in the United States (“U.S.”). Our consolidated financial statements include the accounts of THG; The Hanover Insurance Company (“Hanover Insurance”) and Citizens Insurance Company of America (“Citizens”), which are our principal property and casualty subsidiaries; and other insurance and non-insurance subsidiaries. Our results of operations also include the results of our discontinued operations, consisting primarily of our former Chaucer international business, as well as our former accident and health, and life insurance businesses. As discussed further in “Discontinued Operations” below, on December 28, 2018, we completed the sale of Chaucer Holdings Limited, the major portion of our Lloyd’s international specialty business, to China Reinsurance (Group) Corporation (“China Re”). We subsequently completed the sale of our Chaucer-related Irish entity on February 14, 2019. The sale of the Australian entities is pending, subject only to local regulatory approval, and is expected to close in the first quarter of 2019.

We conduct our business operations through three operating segments. These segments are Commercial Lines, Personal Lines, and Other. We report interest expense related to our corporate debt separately from the earnings of our operating segments.

Information with respect to each of our segments is included in “Results of Operations - Segments” in Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and in Note 14 – “Segment Information” in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.

Information with respect to geographic concentrations is included in “Marketing and Distribution” below in Part 1 – Item 1 and in Note 14 – “Segment Information” in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.

In our Commercial Lines and Personal Lines segments, we underwrite commercial and personal property and casualty insurance through Hanover Insurance, Citizens and other THG subsidiaries, through an independent agent and broker network concentrated in the Northeast, Midwest and Southeast U.S. We also continue to actively grow our Commercial Lines’ presence in the Western region of the U.S., particularly in California, which now is our largest state for Commercial Lines as measured by net premiums written. Included in our Other segment are Opus Investment Management, Inc. (“Opus”), a wholly owned subsidiary of THG, which provides investment management services to our insurance and non-insurance companies, as well as to unaffiliated institutions, pension funds and other organizations; earnings on holding company assets; holding company and other expenses, including certain costs associated with retirement benefits due to former life insurance employees and agents; and a run-off voluntary pools business.

Our business strategy focuses on providing our agents and customers with competitive insurance products delivered with clear and consistent underwriting and pricing expectations, while prudently growing and diversifying our product and geographical business mix. We conduct our business with an emphasis on disciplined underwriting, pricing, quality claim handling, and customer service. In 2018, we wrote approximately $4.8 billion in gross premiums. Agency relationships and active agency management are core to our strategy. Based on net premiums written, we rank among the top 25 property and casualty insurers in the United States.

The industry’s and our profitability are each significantly affected by numerous factors, including price; competition; volatile and unpredictable developments, such as extreme weather conditions, catastrophes and other disasters; legal and regulatory developments affecting pricing, underwriting, policy coverage and other aspects of doing business, as well as insurer and insureds’ liability; extra-contractual liability; increased attorney involvement; size of jury awards; acts of terrorism; fluctuations in interest rates or the value of investments; and other general economic conditions and trends, such as inflationary pressure or unemployment, that may affect the adequacy of reserves or the demand for insurance products. Our investment portfolio and its future returns are impacted by the capital markets and current economic conditions, which affect our liquidity, realized losses and impairments, credit default levels, our ability to hold such investments until recovery and other factors. Additionally, the economic conditions in geographic locations where we conduct business, especially those locations where our business is concentrated, affect the growth and profitability of our business. The regulatory environments in those locations, including any pricing, underwriting or product controls, shared market mechanisms or mandatory pooling arrangements, and other conditions, such as our agency relationships, affect the growth and profitability of our business. Our loss and loss adjustment expense (“LAE”) reserves are based on estimates, principally involving case assessments and actuarial projections, at a given time, of what we expect the ultimate settlement and administration of claims will cost based on facts and circumstances then known, predictions of future events, estimates of future trends in claims frequency and severity and judicial

theories of liability, costs of repairs and replacement, legislative activity and other factors. We regularly reassess our estimate of loss reserves and LAE, both for current and past years, and resulting changes have and will affect our reported profitability and financial position.

Our Commercial Lines segment generated $2.7 billion, or 60.3%, of consolidated operating revenues and $2.6 billion, or 59.5%, of net premiums written, for the year ended December 31, 2018.

The following table provides net premiums written by line of business for our Commercial Lines segment.

	Net Premiums
YEAR ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2018	Written		% of Total
(in millions, except ratios)
Commercial multiple peril	$	861.4		33.0	%
Commercial automobile		344.8		13.2
Workers' compensation		317.1		12.1
Other commercial lines:
Inland marine		268.2		10.3
Management and professional liability		229.9		8.8
AIX program business		223.2		8.5
Surety		72.5		2.8
Specialty property		64.1		2.5
Other		229.5		8.8
Total	$	2,610.7		100.0	%

Our Commercial Lines product suite provides agents and customers with products designed for small, middle and specialized markets.

Commercial multiple peril coverage insures businesses against third-party general liability from accidents occurring on their premises or arising out of their operations, such as injuries sustained from products sold. It also insures business property for damage, such as that caused by fire, wind, hail, water damage (which may include flood), theft and vandalism.

Commercial automobile coverage insures businesses against losses incurred from personal bodily injury, bodily injury to third parties, property damage to an insured’s vehicle and property damage to other vehicles and property. Commercial automobile policies are often written in conjunction with other commercial policies.

Workers’ compensation coverage insures employers against employee medical and indemnity claims resulting from injuries related to work. Workers’ compensation policies are often written in conjunction with other commercial policies.

Our strategy in Commercial Lines focuses on building deep relationships with partner independent agents through differentiated product offerings, industry segmentation, and franchise value through limited distribution. We continue to make enhancements to our products and technology platforms that are intended to drive more total account placements in our small commercial and middle market business, while delivering enhanced margins in our specialty businesses. This aligns with our focus of delivering the capabilities that will help expand the depth and breadth of our partnerships with a limited number of agents.

Our small commercial, middle market and specialty businesses each constitute approximately one-third of our total Commercial Lines business. Small commercial offerings, which generally include premiums of $50,000 or less, deliver value through product expertise, local presence, and ease of doing business. Middle market accounts, with premiums generally in the range of $50,000 to $250,000, require greater claim and underwriting expertise, as well as a focus on industry segments where we can deliver differentiation in the market and value to agents and customers. Small and middle market accounts comprise approximately $1.7 billion of the Commercial Lines segment net premiums written. Our specialty lines of business include inland marine, management and professional liability, AIX program business, surety and specialty property.

In our small commercial and middle market businesses, we offer coverages and capabilities in several key industries including technology, schools, and human services organizations, such as non-profit youth and community service organizations. We also provide further segmentation in our core middle market commercial products, including real estate, hospitality, manufacturing, contractors and wholesale distributors.

Part of our strategy is to expand our specialty lines offerings in order to provide our agents and policyholders with a broader product portfolio and to increase our market share of our partner agents’ total business. We have over time acquired various specialized businesses aimed at further diversifying and growing our specialty lines. We used these acquisitions as platforms to expand our product offerings and grow through our existing agency and broker distribution network.

We believe our small commercial capabilities, distinctiveness in the middle market, and continued development of specialty business provides us with a more diversified portfolio of products and enables us to deliver significant value to our agents and policyholders. We believe these efforts will enable us to continue to improve the overall mix of our business and ultimately our underwriting profitability.

Our Personal Lines segment generated $1.8 billion, or 39.4%, of consolidated operating revenues and $1.8 billion, or 40.5%, of net premiums written, for the year ended December 31, 2018.

The following table provides net premiums written by line of business for our Personal Lines segment.

Personal automobile coverage insures individuals against losses incurred from personal bodily injury, bodily injury to third parties, property damage to an insured’s vehicle, and property damage to other vehicles and other property.

Homeowners coverage insures individuals for losses to their residences and personal property, such as those caused by fire, wind, hail, water damage (excluding flood), theft and vandalism, and against third-party liability claims.

Other personal lines are comprised of personal inland marine (jewelry, art, etc.), umbrella, fire, personal watercraft, earthquake and other miscellaneous coverages.

Our strategy in Personal Lines is to provide account–oriented business (i.e., writing both an insured’s automobile and homeowners insurance) through our partner agencies, with a focus on increasing geographic diversification. The market for our Personal Lines business is very competitive, with continued pressure on independent agents from direct writers, as well as from the increased usage of

real time comparative rating tools and increasingly sophisticated rating and pricing tools. We maintain a focus on partnering with high quality, value-added agencies that stress the importance of consultative selling and account rounding (the conversion of single policy customers to accounts with multiple policies and/or additional coverages). We are focused on making investments that are intended to help us maintain profitability, build a distinctive position in the market, and provide us with profitable growth opportunities. We continue to refine our products and to work closely with these high potential agents to increase the percentage of business they place with us and to ensure that it is consistent with our preferred mix of business. Additionally, we remain focused on further diversifying our state mix beyond the largest historical core states of Michigan, Massachusetts and New York. We expect these efforts to decrease our risk concentrations and our dependency on these three states, as well as to contribute to improved profitability over time.

The Other segment consists of: Opus, which provides investment advisory services to affiliates and also manages approximately $3.1 billion of assets for unaffiliated institutions such as insurance companies, retirement plans and foundations, including $1.6 billion of funds managed for Chaucer subsequent to the completion of the sale. We anticipate that we will continue to manage these assets in connection with a new investment management arrangement. The Other segment also includes earnings on holding company assets; holding company and other expenses, including certain costs associated with retirement benefits due to former life insurance employees and agents; and our run-off voluntary pools business.

We serve a variety of standard, specialty and targeted industry markets. Consistent with our objective to diversify our underwriting risks on a geographic and line of business basis, we currently have a split of approximately 40% Personal Lines, 40% core Commercial Lines, and 20% specialty lines. Commercial Lines, including our small, middle market and specialty businesses, and Personal Lines segments distribute our products primarily through an independent agent network.

Our Commercial and Personal Lines agency distribution and field structure are designed to maintain a strong focus on local markets and the flexibility to respond to specific market conditions. During 2018, we wrote 20.5% of our Commercial and Personal Lines business in Michigan and 9.6% in Massachusetts. Our structure is a key factor in the establishment and maintenance of productive, long-term relationships with well-established independent agencies. We maintain 41 local offices across 28 states. The majority of processing support for these locations is provided from Worcester, Massachusetts; Howell, Michigan; Salem, Virginia; and Windsor, Connecticut.

Independent agents account for substantially all of the sales of our Commercial and Personal Lines property and casualty products. Agencies are appointed based on profitability, track record, financial stability, professionalism, and business strategy. Once appointed, we monitor their performance and, subject to legal and regulatory requirements, may take actions as necessary to change these business relationships, such as discontinuing the authority of the agent to underwrite certain products or revising commissions or bonus opportunities. We compensate agents primarily through base commissions and bonus plans that are tied to an agency’s written premium, growth and profitability.

We are licensed to sell property and casualty insurance in all fifty states in the U.S., as well as in the District of Columbia. Throughout the U.S., we actively market Commercial Lines policies in 37 states and Personal Lines policies in 18 states.

The following table provides our top Commercial and Personal Lines geographical markets based on total net premiums written in the state in 2018.

YEAR ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2018	Commercial Lines					Personal Lines						Total Commercial and Personal Lines
(in millions, except ratios)	Net Premiums Written		% of Total			Net Premiums Written			% of Total			Net Premiums Written		% of Total
Michigan	$	133.7		5.1	%	$	766.5			43.2	%	$	900.2		20.5	%
Massachusetts		186.6		7.1			234.8			13.2			421.4		9.6
New York		229.9		8.8			128.1			7.2			358.0		8.2
California		317.2		12.1			—			—			317.2		7.2
Illinois		119.1		4.6			96.3			5.4			215.4		4.9
Texas		207.0		7.9			—			—			207.0		4.7
New Jersey		138.1		5.3			57.1			3.2			195.2		4.5
Connecticut		58.8		2.3			89.8			5.1			148.6		3.4
Georgia		80.7		3.1			54.1			3.0			134.8		3.1
Maine		63.4		2.4			49.3			2.8			112.7		2.6
Virginia		74.4		2.8			36.2			2.0			110.6		2.5
Indiana		51.7		2.0			36.5			2.1			88.2		2.0
Florida		86.6		3.3			(0.1	)		—			86.5		2.0
Tennessee		50.1		1.9			35.0			2.0			85.1		1.9
Wisconsin		48.3		1.9			35.5			2.0			83.8		1.9
New Hampshire		42.2		1.6			33.8			1.9			76.0		1.7
Louisiana		39.3		1.5			35.6			2.0			74.9		1.7
North Carolina		66.4		2.5			2.8			0.2			69.2		1.6
Minnesota		68.7		2.6			—			—			68.7		1.6
Pennsylvania		60.0		2.3			8.7			0.5			68.7		1.6
Other		488.5		18.9			74.1			4.2			562.6		12.8
Total	$	2,610.7		100.0	%	$	1,774.1			100.0	%	$	4,384.8		100.0	%

We manage our Commercial Lines portfolio, which includes our core and specialty businesses, with a focus on growth from the most profitable industry segments within our underwriting expertise. Our core business is generally comprised of several coordinated commercial lines of business, including small and middle market accounts, which include targeted industry segments. Such business is split between small accounts, generally having less than $50,000 in premium, and middle market accounts, those with premium over $50,000, with most middle market accounts having less than $250,000 of premium. Additionally, we have multiple specialty lines of business, which include inland marine, management and professional liability, AIX program business, surety and specialty property. The Commercial Lines segment seeks to maintain strong agency relationships as an approach to secure and retain our agents’ best business. We monitor quality of business written through ongoing quality reviews, accountability for which is shared at the local, regional and corporate levels.

We manage Personal Lines business with a focus on acquiring and retaining preferred accounts. Currently, approximately 84% of our policies in force are account business. Approximately 56% of our Personal Lines net premium written is generated in the combined states of Michigan and Massachusetts. In Michigan, based upon direct premiums written for 2018, we underwrite approximately 6% of the state’s total market.

Approximately 68% of our Michigan Personal Lines business is in the personal automobile line and 31% is in the homeowners line. Michigan business represents approximately 46% of our total personal automobile net premiums written and approximately 39% of our total homeowners net premiums written. In Michigan, we are a principal market for many of our appointed agencies, with approximately $2.0 million of total direct premiums written per agency in 2018.

Approximately 69% of our Massachusetts Personal Lines business is in the personal automobile line and 29% is in the homeowners line. Massachusetts business represents approximately 14% of our total personal automobile net premiums written and approximately 11% of our total homeowners net premiums written.

We sponsor local and national agent advisory councils to gain the benefit of our agents’ insight and enhance our relationships. These councils provide feedback, input on the development of products and services, guidance on marketing efforts, support for our strategies, and assist us in enhancing our local market presence.

With respect to our Other segment business, we market our investment advisory services directly through Opus.

The property and casualty industry is a very competitive market. Our competitors include national, international, regional and local companies that sell insurance through various distribution channels, including independent agencies, captive agency forces, brokers and direct to consumers through the internet or otherwise. They also include mutual insurance companies, reciprocals and exchanges. In the Commercial and Personal Lines segments, we market through independent agents and brokers and compete for business on the basis of product, price, agency and customer service, local relationships, ratings, and effective claims handling, among other things. We believe that our emphasis on maintaining strong agency relationships and a local presence in our markets, coupled with investments in products, operating efficiency, technology and effective claims handling, enable us to compete effectively. Our broad product offerings in Commercial Lines and total account strategy in Personal Lines are instrumental to our ability to capitalize on these relationships and improve profitability.

We seek to achieve targeted combined ratios in each of our product lines. Targets vary by product and geography and change with market conditions. The targeted combined ratios reflect competitive market conditions, investment yield expectations, our loss payout patterns, and target returns on equity. This approach is intended to enable us to achieve measured growth and consistent profitability.

For all major product lines in the Commercial and Personal Lines segments, we employ pricing teams which produce exposure and experience-based rating models to support underwriting and pricing decisions. In addition, we seek to utilize our understanding of local markets to achieve superior underwriting results. We rely on market information provided by our local agents and on the knowledge of staff in the local branch offices. Since we maintain a strong regional focus and a significant market share in a number of states, we can better apply our knowledge and experience in making underwriting and rate setting decisions. Also, we seek to gather objective and verifiable information at a policy level during the underwriting process, including prior loss experience, past driving records and, where permitted, credit histories.

Claims management includes the receipt of initial loss notifications, generation of appropriate responses to claim reports, loss appraisals, identification and handling of coverage issues, determination of whether further investigation is required, retention of legal representation where appropriate, establishment of case reserves, approval of loss payments and notification to reinsurers. Part of our strategy focuses on efficient, timely, and fair claim settlements to meet customer service expectations and maintain valuable independent agent relationships. Additionally, effective claims management is important to our business since claim payments and related loss adjustment expenses are our single largest expenditures.

We utilize experienced claims adjusters, appraisers, medical specialists, managers and attorneys to manage our claims. Our U.S. property and casualty operations have field claims adjusters located throughout the states and regions in which we do business. Claims field staff members work closely with the independent agents who bound the policies under which coverage is claimed. Claims office adjusting staff is supported by general adjusters for large property and large casualty losses, by automobile and heavy equipment damage appraisers for automobile material damage losses, and by medical specialists whose principal concentration is on workers’ compensation and automobile injury cases. Additionally, the claims offices are supported by staff attorneys, both in the home office and in regional locations, who specialize in litigation defense and claim settlements. We have a catastrophe response team to assist policyholders impacted by severe weather events. This team mobilizes quickly to impacted regions, often in advance for a large tracked storm, to support our local claims adjusters and facilitate a timely response to resulting claims. We also maintain a special unit that investigates suspected insurance fraud and abuse. We utilize claims processing technology which allows most of the smaller and more routine Personal Lines claims to be processed at centralized locations.

We are subject to claims arising out of catastrophes, which historically have had a significant impact on our results of operations and financial condition. Coverage for such events is a core part of our business, and we expect to experience catastrophe losses in the future, which could have a material adverse impact on our financial results and position. Catastrophes can be caused by various events, including, among others, hurricanes, tornadoes and other windstorms, earthquakes, hail, severe winter weather, fire, explosions, and terrorism. The incidence and severity of catastrophes are volatile and difficult to predict.

We endeavor to manage our catastrophe risks through underwriting procedures, including the use of deductibles and specific exclusions for floods and earthquakes, subject to regulatory restrictions and competitive pressures, and through geographic exposure management and reinsurance. The catastrophe reinsurance program is structured to protect us on a per-occurrence and aggregate excess basis. We monitor geographic location and coverage concentrations in order to manage corporate exposure to catastrophic events. Although catastrophes can cause losses in a variety of property and casualty lines, commercial multiple peril and homeowners property coverages have, in the past, generated the majority of catastrophe-related claims.

We maintain ceded reinsurance programs designed to protect against large or unusual loss and LAE activity. We utilize a variety of proportional and non-proportional reinsurance agreements, which are intended to control our individual policy and aggregate exposure to large property and casualty losses, stabilize earnings and protect capital resources. These programs include facultative reinsurance (to limit exposure on a specified policy); specific excess and proportional treaty reinsurance (to limit exposure on individual policies or risks within specified classes of business); and catastrophe excess of loss reinsurance (to limit exposure to any one event that might impact more than one individual contract). Our proportional reinsurance consists of quota share reinsurance agreements and our non-proportional reinsurance includes excess of loss and stop loss reinsurance agreements.

Catastrophe reinsurance protects us, as the ceding insurer, from significant losses arising from a single event including, among others, hurricanes, tornadoes and other windstorms, earthquakes, hail, severe winter weather, fire, explosions and terrorism. We determine the appropriate amount of reinsurance based upon our evaluation of the risks insured, exposure analyses prepared by consultants, our risk appetite and on market conditions, including the availability and pricing of reinsurance. Although we believe our catastrophe reinsurance program, including our retention and co-participation amounts for 2019, is appropriate given our surplus level and the current reinsurance pricing environment, there can be no assurance that our reinsurance program will provide coverage levels that will prove adequate should we experience losses from one significant or several large catastrophes during 2019. Additionally, as a result of the current economic environment, as well as losses incurred by reinsurers in the past several years, the availability and pricing of appropriate reinsurance programs may be adversely affected in future renewal periods. We may not be able to pass these costs on to policyholders in the form of higher premiums or assessments.

We cede to reinsurers a portion of our risk based upon insurance policies subject to such reinsurance. Reinsurance contracts do not relieve us from our obligations to policyholders. Failure of reinsurers to honor their obligations could result in losses to us. We believe that the terms of our reinsurance contracts are consistent with industry practice in that they contain standard terms with respect to lines of business covered, limit and retention, arbitration and occurrence. We believe our reinsurers are financially sound, based upon our ongoing review of the financial strength ratings assigned to them by rating agencies, their reputations in the reinsurance marketplace, our collections history, advice from third parties, and the analysis and guidance of our reinsurance advisors.

Although we exclude coverage of nuclear, chemical or biological events from the Personal Lines and Commercial Lines policies we write in the U.S., we are statutorily required to provide this coverage in our workers’ compensation policies. We have workers’ compensation reinsurance coverage under our casualty reinsurance treaty of approximately $80 million for terrorism losses, limited to approximately $10 million for losses that result from nuclear, chemical or biological events. All other U.S.-based exposure or treaties exclude such coverage. Further, under The Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2015 (“TRIPRA”), our share of U.S. domestic losses in 2018 from such events, if deemed certified terrorist events, is limited to 18% of losses in excess of an approximate $412 million deductible, up to a combined annual aggregate limit for the federal government and all insurers of $100 billion. Such events could be material to our financial position or results of operations. See also “Terrorism” below for additional information.

Reference is made to Note 16 — “Reinsurance” in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements. Reference is also made to “Involuntary Residual Markets”.

Our 2019 reinsurance program for our Commercial Lines and Personal Lines segments is substantially consistent with our 2018 program design. The following discussion summarizes both our 2018 and 2019 reinsurance programs for our Commercial Lines and Personal Lines segments (excluding coverage available under the U.S. federal terrorism program which is described under “Terrorism”), but does not purport to be a complete description of the program or the various restrictions or limitations which may apply:

Our intention is to renew the surety and fidelity bond treaty, the property per risk excess of loss treaty and the property catastrophe treaty in July 2019 with the same or similar terms and conditions, but there can be no assurance that we will be able to maintain our current levels of reinsurance, pricing and terms and conditions. Our 2019 casualty excess of loss treaty is effective January 1, 2019 for a twelve month period.

We share insurance risk of the primary underlying contracts with various insurance entities through the use of reinsurance contracts. As a result, when we experience loss events that are subject to a reinsurance contract, reinsurance recoveries are recorded. The amount of the reinsurance recoverable can vary based on the size of the individual loss or the aggregate amount of all losses in a particular line, book of business or an aggregate amount associated with a particular accident year. The valuation of losses recoverable depends on whether the underlying loss is a reported loss, or an incurred but not reported loss. For reported losses, we value reinsurance recoverables at the time the underlying loss is recognized, in accordance with contract terms. For incurred but not reported losses, we estimate the amount of reinsurance recoverable based on the terms of the reinsurance contracts and historical reinsurance recovery information and apply that information to the gross loss reserve estimates. The most significant assumption we use is the average size of the individual losses that will exceed our reinsurance retentions for those claims that have occurred but have not yet been reported to us. The reinsurance recoverable is based on what we believe are reasonable estimates and is disclosed separately on the financial statements. However, the ultimate amount of the reinsurance recoverable is not known until all losses are settled.

Other than our investment portfolio, the single largest asset class is our reinsurance receivables, which consist of our estimate of amounts recoverable from reinsurers with respect to losses incurred to date (including losses incurred but not reported) and unearned premiums, net of amounts estimated to be uncollectible. These estimates are expected to be revised at each reporting period and such revisions, which could be material, affect our results of operations and financial position. Reinsurance recoverables include amounts due from state mandatory reinsurance or other involuntary risk sharing mechanisms, and private reinsurers to whom we have voluntarily ceded business.

We are subject to concentration of risk with respect to reinsurance ceded to various mandatory residual markets, facilities and pooling mechanisms. As a condition to conduct business in various states, we are required to participate in residual market mechanisms, facilities and pooling arrangements which usually are designed to provide insurance coverages to individuals or other entities that are otherwise unable to purchase such coverage voluntarily or at rates deemed reasonable. These market mechanisms, facilities and pooling arrangements comprise $990.9 million of our total reinsurance recoverables on paid and unpaid losses and unearned premiums at December 31, 2018, $977.1 million of which is attributable to the Michigan Catastrophic Claims Association (“MCCA”).

The MCCA is a mandatory reinsurance association which reinsures claims under Michigan’s unlimited personal injury protection coverage which is required under all Michigan automobile insurance policies. The MCCA reinsures all such claims in excess of a statutorily established company retention, currently $555,000. Funding for MCCA comes from assessments against automobile insurers based upon their share of insured automobiles in the state. Insurers are allowed to pass along this cost to Michigan automobile policyholders. This recoverable accounted for 64% and 63% of our total personal automobile gross reserves at December 31, 2018 and 2017, respectively. Reinsurance recoverables related to MCCA were $977.1 million and $930.6 million at December 31, 2018 and 2017, respectively. Because the MCCA is supported by assessments permitted by statute, and there have been no significant uncollectible balances from MCCA identified during the three years ending December 31, 2018, we believe that we have no significant exposure to uncollectible reinsurance balances from this entity.

In addition to the reinsurance ceded to various residual market mechanisms, facilities, and pooling arrangements we have $655.9 million of reinsurance assets due from traditional reinsurers as of December 31, 2018. These amounts are due principally from highly-rated reinsurers, defined as rated A- or higher by A.M. Best or other equivalent rating agency. The following table displays balances recoverable from our ten largest reinsurance groups at December 31, 2018, along with the A.M. Best rating for each group’s ultimate parent or lead rating unit. Reinsurance recoverables are comprised of paid losses recoverable, outstanding losses recoverable, incurred but not reported losses recoverable, and ceded unearned premium.

REINSURERS	A.M. Best Rating	Reinsurance Recoverable
(in millions)
HDI Group (Hannover Ruckversicherungs AG)	A	$	105.0
Lloyd's Syndicates	A		79.4
Alleghany Corporation (Transatlantic Reinsurance Co.)	A		61.9
Munich Reinsurance Companies	A+		56.5
Toa Reinsurance Company Ltd.	A		55.1
Swiss Re Ltd.	A+		48.7
Axis Capital Holding Ltd.	A+		27.4
EXOR N.V. (Partner Reinsurance Company of the U.S.)	A		19.8
Tokio Marine Holdings Inc.	A+		15.1
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.	A++		14.7
Subtotal			483.6
All other reinsurers			172.3
Residual markets, facilities, and pooling arrangements			990.9
Total		$	1,646.8

Reinsurance recoverable balances in the table above are shown before consideration of balances owed to reinsurers and any potential rights of offset, including collateral held by us, and are net of an allowance for uncollectible recoverables. Reinsurance treaties are generally purchased on an annual basis. Treaties typically contain provisions that allow us to demand that a reinsurer post letters of credit or assets as security if a reinsurer is an unauthorized reinsurer under applicable regulations or if its rating falls below a predetermined contractual level. In regards to reinsurance recoverables due from Lloyd’s Syndicates, as part of the Lloyd’s “chain of security” afforded to all of its policyholders, recourse is available to the Lloyd’s Central Fund in the event of the failure of an individual syndicate and its capital providers.

Although reinsurance makes the reinsurer liable to us to the extent the risk is transferred or ceded to the reinsurer, ceded reinsurance arrangements do not eliminate our obligation to pay claims to our policyholders. Accordingly, we bear credit risk with respect to our reinsurers. Specifically, our reinsurers may not pay claims made by us on a timely basis, or they may not pay some or all of these claims. In addition, from time to time insurers and reinsurers may disagree on the scope of the reinsurance or on the underlying insured risks. Any of these events would increase our costs and could have a material adverse effect on our business.

We have established a reserve for uncollectible reinsurance of $3.9 million as of December 31, 2018, or 0.2% of the total reinsurance recoverable balance, which was determined by considering reinsurer specific default risk on paid and unpaid recoverables as indicated by their financial strength ratings, any ongoing solvency issues, any current risk of dispute on paid recoverables, and our past collection experience. There have been no significant balances determined to be uncollectible and thus no significant charges recorded during 2018 for uncollectible reinsurance recoverables.

Our exposure to credit risk from any one reinsurer is managed through diversification by reinsuring with a number of different reinsurers, principally in the United States and European reinsurance markets. When reinsurance for our Commercial and Personal Lines segments is placed, our standards of acceptability generally require that a reinsurer must have a minimum policyholder surplus of $500 million, a rating from A.M. Best and/or S&P of “A” or better, or an equivalent financial strength if not rated. In addition, for lower rated reinsurers, certain reinsurers for our insurance operations that have not been granted authorized status by an insurance company’s state of domicile, and in certain other circumstances, reinsurers must generally provide collateral equal to 100% of estimated reinsurance recoverables. The collateral can serve to mitigate credit risk.

Information regarding loss and LAE reserve development appears in Note 17 – “Liabilities For Outstanding Claims, Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses” in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements. Additionally, see “Reserve for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses” in Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition for discussion of prior year development.

As a result of the continuing threat of terrorist attacks, the insurance industry maintains a high level of focus with respect to the potential for losses caused by terrorist acts. Insured losses may encompass people, property and business operations covered under workers’ compensation, commercial multiple peril and other Commercial Lines policies, as well as Personal Lines policies. In certain cases, we are not able to exclude coverage for these losses, either because of regulatory requirements or competitive pressures. We continually evaluate the potential effect of these low frequency, but potentially high severity events in our overall pricing and underwriting plans, especially for policies written in major metropolitan areas.

Although certain terrorism-related risks embedded in our Commercial and Personal Lines are covered under the existing Catastrophe, Property per Risk and Casualty Excess of Loss corporate reinsurance treaties (see “Reinsurance” for additional information), private sector catastrophe reinsurance is limited and generally unavailable for losses attributed to acts of terrorism, particularly those involving nuclear, biological, chemical and/or radiological events. As a result, the industry’s primary reinsurance protection against large-scale terrorist attacks in the U.S. is provided through a Federal program that provides compensation for insured losses resulting from acts of terrorism.

The Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002 first established the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program (the “Program”). Coverage under the Program applies to workers’ compensation, commercial multiple peril, and certain other Commercial Lines policies for direct written policies. TRIPRA extended the Program through December 31, 2020. All commercial property and casualty insurers participate in the program. Under the program, a participating issuer, in exchange for making terrorism insurance available, may be entitled to be reimbursed by the Federal government for a portion of its aggregate losses. The Program does not cover losses in surety, Personal Lines or certain other lines of business. Losses caused by terrorist acts are not excluded from homeowners or personal automobile policies.

As required by the current Program, we offer policyholders in specific lines of commercial insurance the option to elect terrorism coverage. In order for a loss to be reinsured under the Program, the loss must meet aggregate industry loss minimums and must be the result of an act of terrorism as certified by the Secretary of the Treasury in consultation with the Secretary of Homeland Security and the U.S. Attorney General. Losses from acts which do not qualify or are not so certified will not receive the benefit of the Program and in fact, may be deemed covered losses whether or not terrorism coverage was purchased. The current Program requires insurance carriers to retain 19% of any claims from a certified terrorist event in excess of the federally mandated deductible in 2019, subject to an annual industry-wide cap of $100 billion. This retention will increase to 20% in 2020. The federally mandated deductible represents 20% of direct earned premium for the covered lines of business of the prior year. In 2018, our deductible was $412 million, which represents 19.9% of year-end 2017 statutory policyholder surplus of our insurers, and is estimated to be $431 million in 2019, representing 19.8% of 2018 year-end statutory policyholder surplus.

Given the unpredictability of terrorism losses, future losses from acts of terrorism could be material to our operating results, financial position, and/or liquidity. We attempt to manage our exposures on an individual line of business basis and in the aggregate by one-half square mile grids in major metropolitan areas.

Our property and casualty insurance subsidiaries are subject to extensive regulation in the states in which they transact business and are supervised by the individual state insurance departments. Numerous aspects of our business are subject to regulation, including premium rates, mandatory covered risks, limitations on the ability to non-renew or reject business, prohibited exclusions, licensing and appointment of agents, restrictions on the size of risks that may be insured under a single policy, reserves and provisions for unearned premiums, losses and other obligations, deposits of securities for the benefit of policyholders, investments and capital, policy forms and coverages, advertising, and other conduct, including restrictions on the use of credit information and other factors in underwriting, as well as other underwriting and claims practices. States also regulate various aspects of the contractual relationships between insurers and independent agents.

Such laws, rules and regulations are usually overseen and enforced by the various state insurance departments, as well as through private rights of action and by state attorneys general. Such regulations or enforcement actions are often responsive to current consumer and political sensitivities, such as automobile and homeowners insurance rates and coverage forms, or which may arise after a major event. Such rules and regulations may result in rate suppression, limit our ability to manage our exposure to unprofitable or volatile risks, or lead to fines, premium refunds or other adverse consequences. The federal government also may regulate aspects of our businesses, such as the use of insurance (credit) scores in underwriting and the protection of confidential information.

In addition, as a condition to writing business in certain states, insurers are required to participate in various pools or risk sharing mechanisms or to accept certain classes of risk, regardless of whether such risks meet their underwriting requirements for voluntary business. Some states also limit or impose restrictions on the ability of an insurer to withdraw from certain classes of business. For example, Massachusetts, New York and California each impose material restrictions on a company’s ability to materially reduce its exposures or to withdraw from certain lines of business in their respective states. The state insurance departments can impose significant charges on an insurer in connection with a market withdrawal or refuse to approve withdrawal plans on the grounds that they could lead to market disruption. Laws and regulations that limit cancellation and non-renewal of policies or that subject withdrawal plans to prior approval requirements may significantly restrict our ability to exit unprofitable markets. Such actions and related regulatory restrictions may limit our ability to reduce our potential exposure to hurricane-related losses.

The insurance laws of many states subject property and casualty insurers doing business in those states to statutory property and casualty guaranty fund assessments. The purpose of a guaranty fund is to protect policyholders by requiring that solvent property and casualty insurers pay the insurance claims of insolvent insurers. These guaranty associations generally pay these claims by assessing solvent insurers proportionately based on each insurer’s share of voluntary premiums written in the state. While most guaranty associations provide for recovery of assessments through subsequent rate increases, surcharges or premium tax credits, there is no assurance that insurers will ultimately recover these assessments, which could be material, particularly following a large catastrophe or in markets which become disrupted.

We are subject to periodic financial and market conduct examinations conducted by state insurance departments. We are also required to file annual and other reports with state insurance departments relating to the financial condition of our insurance subsidiaries and other matters. The National Association of Insurance Commissioners (“NAIC”) and the Federal Insurance Office are each actively engaged in reviewing and considering proposed insurer risk-based capital standards, risk analysis, solvency assessments and other regulatory initiatives.

As noted above, as a condition of our license to write business in various states, we are required to participate in mandatory property and casualty residual market mechanisms which provide insurance coverages where such coverage may not otherwise be available at rates deemed reasonable. Such mechanisms provide coverage primarily for personal and commercial property, personal and commercial automobile, and workers’ compensation, and include assigned risk plans, reinsurance facilities and involuntary pools, joint underwriting associations, fair access to insurance requirements (“FAIR”) plans, and commercial automobile insurance plans.

For example, since most states compel the purchase of a minimal level of automobile liability insurance, states have developed shared market mechanisms to provide the required coverages and in many cases, optional coverages, to those drivers who, because of their driving records or other factors, cannot find insurers who will insure them voluntarily. Also, FAIR plans and other similar property insurance shared market mechanisms increase the availability of property insurance in circumstances where homeowners are unable to obtain insurance at rates deemed reasonable, such as in coastal areas or in areas subject to other hazards. Licensed insurers writing business in such states are often required to pay assessments to cover reserve deficiencies generated by such plans.

With respect to FAIR plans and other similar property insurance shared market mechanisms that have significant exposures, it is difficult to accurately estimate our potential financial exposure for future events. Assessments following a large coastal event, particularly one affecting Massachusetts, Texas, New York, or North Carolina, or a large wildfire event affecting California, could be material to our results of operations. Our participation in such shared markets or pooling mechanisms is generally proportional to our direct writings for the type of coverage written by the specific pooling mechanism in the applicable state or other jurisdiction. For example, we are subject to mandatory participation in the Michigan Assigned Claims (“MAC”) facility. MAC is an assigned claim plan covering people injured in uninsured motor vehicle accidents. Our participation in the MAC facility is based on our share of personal and commercial automobile direct written premium in the state and resulted in underwriting losses of $14.3 million in 2018. There were no other mandatory residual market mechanisms that were significant to our 2018.

Reference is made to “Results of Operations - Segments – Reserve for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses” of Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition. See also Note 17 – “Liabilities for Outstanding Claims, Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses” in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.

The following table reconciles reserves determined in accordance with accounting practices prescribed or permitted by insurance statutory authorities (“Statutory”) to reserves determined in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”). The primary difference between the Statutory reserves and our GAAP reserves is the requirement, on a GAAP basis, to present reinsurance recoverables as an asset, whereas Statutory guidance provides that reserves are reflected net of the corresponding reinsurance recoverables. We do not use discounting techniques in establishing GAAP reserves for property and casualty losses and LAE, nor have we participated in any loss portfolio transfers or other similar transactions.

Reserves for discontinued accident and health business of our insurance subsidiaries are included in liabilities of discontinued operations for GAAP and loss and loss adjustment expenses for Statutory reporting.

Discontinued operations primarily include our former Chaucer operations and our discontinued accident and health business.

The Chaucer business sold property and casualty insurance products internationally through a wholly-owned subsidiary, Chaucer Holdings Limited (“Chaucer”), which operates through the Society and Corporation of Lloyd’s (“Lloyd’s”) and is domiciled in the United Kingdom. During the third quarter of 2018, all of our Chaucer business was classified as discontinued operations. On December 28, 2018, we completed the sale of Chaucer, the major portion of our Lloyd’s international specialty business, to China Re. As part of the sale, we entered into certain transition arrangements and agreed to indemnify China Re for litigation and other regulatory matters that existed as of the closing of the sale. (See also “Risk Factors” in Part I – Item 1A). We subsequently completed the sale of our Chaucer-related Irish entity on February 14, 2019. The sale of the Australian entities is pending, subject only to local regulatory approval, and is expected to close in the first quarter of 2019. We received $28 million of additional consideration for the Irish entity, and we expect to receive $13 million of additional consideration related to the Australian entities. At December 31, 2018, assets and liabilities associated with the Chaucer-related Irish and Australian entities are reflected as assets and liabilities held-for-sale.

The result of operations of the Chaucer business through December 28, 2018 is included in our results of discontinued operations. During 2018, the Chaucer business generated $850.0 million of net earned premium and $20.0 million of income. See the “Discontinued Chaucer Business” section in our Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Note 2 – “Discontinued Operations” in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.

Prior to its sale to China Re, Chaucer, as a non-U.S. subsidiary of THG, was permitted to engage in certain transactions with Iran prior to President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Regarding Iran’s Nuclear Program (the “JCPOA”). As a result of such activity, the following disclosure is provided pursuant to Section 13(r) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended:

During the applicable reporting period, January 1 through December 31, 2018, and pursuant to General License H which was then in effect at all relevant times under the JCPOA, a Chaucer syndicate maintained a 5% participation in an aviation reinsurance arrangement to reinsure Bimeh Iran (“Iran Insurance Company”), an insurer wholly-owned by the Government of Iran. The arrangement reinsured the hull, liability and cargo risks incurred by the underlying insured, Iran Air. Bimeh Markazi, another insurer wholly-owned by the Government of Iran, was an additional reinsured. This reinsurance arrangement, which was in effect for the period June 22, 2017 through June 21, 2018, was compliant with General License H and contained a “sanctions exclusion” clause which terminated coverage in the event Chaucer was no longer legally permitted to provide coverage under applicable law. Estimated total gross revenues from this arrangement were approximately $275,000, and total revenues, net of brokerage expenses and estimated retrocession costs, were approximately $179,500. It is not possible at this time to determine the net profit from the arrangement, although as of December 31, 2018, no claims were paid by the Chaucer syndicate to either of the reinsureds. The agreement expired on June 21, 2018 and was not renewed.

The discontinued accident and health business includes interests in 24 accident and health reinsurance pools and arrangements that we retained subsequent to the sale of First Allmerica Financial Life Insurance Company (“FAFLIC”) in 2009. We ceased writing new premiums in this business in 1999, subject to certain contractual obligations. The reinsurance pool business consists primarily of long-term care, the medical and disability portions of workers’ compensation risks, assumed personal accident, individual medical, long-term disability, and special risk business. This business also includes residual health insurance policies. Total reserves for the assumed accident and health business were $113.2 million at December 31, 2018. The long-term care pool accounts for approximately 69% of our reserves as of December 31, 2018. Reserves for the long-term care pool, individual medical, and residual health insurance policies are discounted. Reserves for all other assumed accident and health business are undiscounted. Assets and liabilities related to the discontinued accident and health business are reflected as assets and liabilities of discontinued life business.

Loss estimates associated with substantially all of the discontinued accident and health business are provided by managers of each pool. We adopt reserve estimates for this business that consider this information, expected returns on assets assigned to this business and other facts. We update these reserves as new information becomes available and further events occur that may affect the ultimate resolution of unsettled claims. Based on information provided to us by the pool managers, we believe that the reserves recorded related to this business are adequate. However, since reserve and claim cost estimates related to the discontinued accident and health business are dependent on several assumptions, including, but not limited to, morbidity, lapses, future premium rates, future health care costs, persistency of medical care inflation and investment performance, and these assumptions can be impacted by technical developments and advancements in the medical field and other factors, there can be no assurance that the reserves established for this business will prove sufficient. Revisions to these reserves could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations for a particular quarterly or annual period or on our financial position. See also “Risk Factors” in Part I – Item 1A.

Our long-term care pool accounts for the majority of our remaining reinsurance pool business. The potential risk and exposure of our long-term care pool is based upon expected estimated claims and payment patterns, using assumptions for, among other things, morbidity, lapses, future premium rates, and the interest rate used for discounting the future projected cash flows. The long-term exposure of this pool depends upon how our actual experience compares with these future cash flow projection assumptions.

Our former life insurance businesses, which are also included in discontinued operations, include activities that were not significant to our 2018, 2017 or 2016 results.

Our wholly-owned subsidiary, Opus, is responsible for managing our investment portfolio. Opus directly manages our entire fixed income portfolio and certain other assets which together constitute approximately 92% of our entire investment portfolio. Opus is also responsible for the selection and monitoring of external asset managers for our commercial mortgage loan participations and certain other investments. We select and monitor external managers based on investment style, performance and corporate governance.

Our investments are generally of high quality and our fixed maturities and equities are broadly diversified across sectors of the fixed income and equity markets. Our overall investment strategy is intended to balance investment income with credit and interest rate risk, while maintaining sufficient liquidity and providing the opportunity for capital growth. The asset allocation process takes into consideration the types of business written and the level of surplus required to support our different businesses and the risk return profiles of the underlying asset classes. We look to balance the goals of capital preservation, net investment income stability, liquidity and total return.

The majority of our assets are invested in the fixed income markets. Through fundamental research and credit analysis, with a focus on value investing, Opus seeks to identify a portfolio of stable income-producing higher quality U.S. government, foreign government, municipal, corporate, residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities. We have a general policy of diversifying investments both within and across major investment and industry sectors to mitigate credit and interest rate risk. We monitor the credit quality of our investments and our exposure to individual markets, borrowers, industries, sectors and, in the case of commercial mortgage-backed securities and commercial mortgage loan participations, property types and geographic locations.

Investments held by our insurance subsidiaries are subject to diversification requirements under state insurance laws. Investment considerations include asset/liability profile, including duration, convexity and other characteristics within specified risk tolerances. The investment portfolio duration is approximately 4.5 years. We seek to maintain sufficient liquidity to support our cash flow requirements by monitoring the cash requirements associated with our insurance and corporate liabilities, laddering the maturities within the portfolio, closely monitoring our investment durations, holding high quality liquid public securities and managing the purchases and sales of assets.

Reference is made to “Investments” in Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition.

Insurance companies are rated by financial strength rating agencies to provide both industry participants and insurance consumers information on specific insurance companies. Higher ratings generally indicate the rating agencies’ opinion regarding financial stability and a stronger ability to pay claims.

Strong ratings are important factors in marketing our products to our agents and customers, since rating information is broadly disseminated and generally used throughout the industry. We believe that a rating of “A-” or higher from A.M. Best Co. is particularly important for our business. Insurance company financial strength ratings are assigned to an insurer based upon factors deemed by the rating agencies to be relevant to policyholders and are not directed toward protection of investors. Such ratings are neither a rating of securities nor a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any security.

As of December 31, 2018, we had approximately 4,200 employees, substantially all of whom are located in the United States. We believe our relations with employees are good.

Reference is made to “Directors and Executive Officers of the Registrant” in Part III - Item 10.

We file our annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, current reports on Form 8-K, our definitive proxy statement on Schedule 14A, and other required information with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). Shareholders may obtain reports, proxy and information statements, and other information with respect to our filings, at the SEC’s website, https://www.sec.gov.

Our website address is https://www.hanover.com. We make available, free of charge, on or through our website, our annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, current reports on Form 8-K, and amendments to those reports filed or furnished pursuant to Sections 13(a) or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as soon as reasonably practicable after we electronically file such material with, or furnish it to, the SEC. Additionally, our Code of Conduct is available, free of charge, on our website. Our Corporate Governance Guidelines and the charters of our Audit Committee, Compensation Committee, Committee of Independent Directors and Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, are available on our website. All documents are also available in print to any shareholder who requests them. Unless specifically incorporated by reference, information on our website is not part of this Annual Report on Form 10-K.

We wish to caution readers that the following important factors, among others, in some cases have affected, and in the future could affect, our actual results and could cause our actual results to differ materially from historical results and from those expressed in any forward-looking statements made from time to time by us on the basis of our then-current expectations. The words “believes”, “anticipates”, “expects”, “projections”, “outlook”, “should”, “could”, “plan”, “guidance”, “likely”, “on track to”, “targeted” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Our businesses are in rapidly changing and competitive markets and involve a high degree of risk and unpredictability. Forward-looking projections are subject to these risks and unpredictability.

Our results may fluctuate as a result of cyclical or non-cyclical changes in the property and casualty insurance industry.

The property and casualty insurance industry historically has been subject to significant fluctuations and uncertainties. Our profitability is affected significantly by the following items:

The demand for property and casualty insurance can also vary significantly based on general economic conditions (either nationally or regionally), rising as the overall level of economic activity increases and falling as such activity decreases. Loss patterns also tend to vary inversely with local economic conditions, increasing during difficult or unstable economic times and moderating during economic upswings or periods of stability. The fluctuations in demand and competition could produce unpredictable underwriting results.

Actual losses from claims against our property and casualty insurance subsidiaries may exceed their reserves for claims.

Our property and casualty insurance subsidiaries maintain reserves to cover their estimated ultimate liability for losses and loss adjustment expenses with respect to reported and unreported claims incurred as of the end of each accounting period. Reserves do not represent an exact calculation of liability. Rather, reserves represent estimates, involving actuarial projections and judgments at a given time, of what we expect the ultimate settlement and administration of incurred claims will cost based on facts and circumstances then known, predictions of future events, estimates of future trends in claims frequency and severity and judicial theories of liability, costs of repair and replacement, legislative activity and myriad other factors.

The inherent uncertainties of estimating reserves are greater for certain types of property and casualty insurance lines. These include automobile bodily injury liability, automobile personal injury protection, general liability, and workers’ compensation, where a longer period of time may elapse before a definitive determination of ultimate liability may be made, environmental liability, where the technological, judicial and political climates involving these types of claims are continuously evolving, and casualty coverages such as professional liability. There is also greater uncertainty in establishing reserves with respect to new business, particularly new business that is generated with respect to newer product lines, such as our management and professional liability, healthcare, and cyber-risk lines, by newly appointed agents, or in geographies where we have less experience in conducting business. In these cases, there is less historical experience or knowledge and less data that the actuaries can rely on. Estimating reserves is further complicated by unexpected claims or unintended coverages that emerge due to changing conditions. These emerging issues may increase the size or number of claims beyond our underwriting intent and may not become apparent for many years after a policy is issued, such as was the case for the industry with respect to environmental, asbestos, and certain product liability claims. These losses are reflected as prior year reserve development. Although we undertake underwriting actions designed to limit losses once emerging issues are identified, we remain subject to losses on policies issued during those years preceding the underwriting actions.

Additionally, the introduction of new Commercial Lines products and the development of new niche and specialty lines present new risks. Certain specialty products, such as the human services program, non-profit directors and officers liability and employment practices liability policies, lawyers and other professional liability policies, healthcare lines and directors and officers coverage may also require a longer period of time (the so-called “tail”) to determine the ultimate liability associated with the claims and may produce more volatility in our results and less certainty in our accident year reserves. Some lines of business, such as surety, are less susceptible to establishing reserves based on actuarial or historical experience and losses may be episodic, depending on economic and other factors. Changes in laws, such as so-called “reviver” statutes that retrospectively change the statutes of limitations for certain claims, such as sexual molestation claims, add further uncertainty to the adequacy of prior estimates.

We regularly review our reserving techniques, reinsurance and the overall adequacy of our reserves based upon, among other things:

Underwriting results and operating income could be adversely affected by further changes in our net loss and LAE estimates related to significant events or emerging risks, such as risks related to attacks on or breaches of cloud-based data information storage or computer network systems (“cyber-risks”), privacy regulations or disruptions caused by major power grid failures or widespread electrical and electronic equipment failure due to aging infrastructure, natural factors like hurricanes, earthquakes, wildfires, solar flares and pandemic or man-made factors like terrorism.

Estimating losses following any major catastrophe or with respect to emerging claims is an inherently uncertain process. Factors that add to the complexity of estimating losses from these events include the legal and regulatory uncertainty, the complexity of factors contributing to the losses, delays in claim reporting, and with respect to areas with significant property damage, the impact of “demand surge” and a slower pace of recovery resulting from the extent of damage sustained in the affected areas due, in part, to the availability and cost of resources to effect repairs. Emerging claims issues may involve complex coverage, liability and other costs which could significantly affect LAE. As a result, there can be no assurance that our ultimate costs associated with these events or issues will not be substantially different from current estimates (for example, actual losses arising from an event could have varied widely depending on the interpretation of various policy provisions). Investors should consider the risks and uncertainties in our business that may affect net loss and LAE reserve estimates and future performance, including the difficulties in arriving at such estimates.

Anticipated losses associated with business interruption exposure, the impact of wind versus water as the cause of loss, disputes over the extent of damage caused by hail storms (particularly with respect to roof damage claims), supplemental payments on previously closed claims caused by the development of latent damages or new theories of liability and inflationary pressures leading to claims cost escalation could also have a negative impact on future loss reserve development. Many states permit insureds to simply sign-over their claims to contractors or others (so-called “assignment of benefits”), which frequently generate higher claim demands. Other states permit filing of suits without prior discussions, which has a similar effect and also increases loss adjustment costs.

Because of the inherent uncertainties involved in setting reserves and establishing current and prior-year “loss picks,” including those related to catastrophes, we cannot provide assurance that the existing reserves or future reserves established by our property and casualty insurance subsidiaries will prove adequate in light of subsequent events. Our results of operations and financial condition have in the past been, and in the future could be, materially affected by adverse loss development for events that we insured in prior periods.

Due to geographical concentration in our property and casualty business, changes in economic, regulatory and other conditions in the regions where we operate could have a significant negative impact on our business as a whole. Geographic concentrations also expose us to losses that are potentially disproportionate to our market share in the event of natural or other catastrophes.

We generate a significant portion of our property and casualty insurance net premiums written and earnings in Michigan, Massachusetts and other states in the Northeast, including New York. In addition, a significant amount of Commercial Lines’ net written premium is generated in California. For the year ended December 31, 2018, approximately 20.5% and 9.6% of our net premiums written in our property and casualty business were generated in the states of Michigan and Massachusetts, respectively. Many states in which we do business impose significant rate control and residual market charges, and restrict an insurer’s ability to exit such markets. The revenues and profitability of our property and casualty insurance subsidiaries are subject to prevailing economic, regulatory, demographic and other conditions, including adverse weather in Michigan and the Northeast. Because of our geographic concentration in certain regions, our business as a whole could be significantly affected by changes in the economic, regulatory and other conditions in such areas.

Further, certain new catastrophe models assume an increase in frequency and severity of certain weather or other events, such as fires, whether as a result of global climate change or otherwise. Financial strength rating agencies emphasize capital and reinsurance adequacy for insurers with geographic concentrations of risk that may be subject to disproportionate risk of loss. These factors also may result in insurers seeking to diversify their geographic exposure, which could result in increased regulatory restrictions in those markets where insurers seek to exit or reduce coverage, as well as an increase in competitive pressures in less weather-exposed markets.

Our profitability may be adversely affected if our pricing models differ materially from actual results.

The profitability of our business depends on the extent to which our actual claims experience is consistent with the assumptions we use in pricing our policies. We price our business in a manner that is intended to be consistent, over time, with actual results and return objectives. Our estimates and models, and/or the assumptions behind them, may differ materially from actual results.

If we fail to appropriately price the risks we insure, fail to change or are slow to change our pricing model to appropriately reflect our current experience, or if our claims experience is more frequent or severe than our underlying risk assumptions, our profit margins may be negatively affected. If we underestimate the frequency and/or severity of extreme adverse events occurring, our financial condition may be adversely affected. If we overestimate the risks we are exposed to, we may overprice our products, and new business growth and retention of our existing business may be adversely affected.

Limitations on the ability to predict the potential impact of weather events and catastrophes may impact our future profits and cash flows.

Our business is subject to claims arising out of catastrophes that may have a significant impact on our results of operations and financial condition. We may experience catastrophe losses that could have a material adverse impact on our business. Catastrophes can be caused by various events, including hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, tornadoes, wind, hail, fires, drought, severe winter weather, volcanic eruptions, tropical storms, tsunamis, sabotage, terrorist actions, explosions, nuclear accidents, solar flares, and power outages. The frequency and severity of catastrophes are inherently unpredictable.

The extent of gross losses from a catastrophe is a function of the total amount of insured exposure in the area affected by the event and the severity of the event. The extent of net losses depends on the amount and collectability of reinsurance.

Additionally, the severity of certain catastrophes could be so significant that it impacts the ability of certain locations to recover their economic viability in the near term. And, repeated catastrophes or the threat of catastrophes could undermine the long-term economic viability of certain locations like coastal or wildfire-exposed communities, which could have a significant negative impact on our business.

Although catastrophes can cause losses in a variety of property and casualty lines, homeowners and commercial multiple peril property insurance have, in the past, generated the vast majority of our catastrophe-related claims. Our catastrophe losses have historically been principally weather-related, particularly from hurricanes, as well as snow and ice damage from winter storms.

Although the insurance industry and rating agencies have developed various models intended to help estimate potential insured losses under thousands of scenarios, there is no reliable way of predicting the probability of such events or the magnitude of such losses before a specific event occurs. We utilize various models and other techniques in an attempt to measure and manage potential catastrophe losses within various income and capital risk appetites. However, such models and techniques have many limitations. In addition, due to historical concentrations of business, regulatory restrictions and other factors, our ability to manage such concentrations is limited, particularly in the Northeast and in the state of Michigan.

We purchase catastrophe reinsurance as protection against catastrophe losses. Based upon an ongoing review of our reinsurers’ financial strength ratings assigned to them by rating agencies, their reputations in the reinsurance marketplace, our collections history with them and the analysis and guidance of our reinsurance advisors, we believe that the financial condition of our reinsurers is sound. However, reinsurance is subject to counterparty risks, including those resulting from over-concentration of exposures within the industry. In setting our retention levels and coverage limits, we also consider our level of statutory surplus and exposures, as well as the current reinsurance pricing environment. Should we experience losses from one significant or several large catastrophes, there can be no assurance that our reinsurance program will provide adequate coverage levels.

Our business is dependent on our ability to manage risk, and the failure of the risk mitigation strategies we utilize could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition or results of operations.

Our business performance is highly dependent on our ability to manage operational risks that arise from a large number of day-to-day business activities, including insurance underwriting, claims processing, servicing, investment, financial and tax reporting, compliance with regulatory requirements and other activities. We utilize a number of strategies to mitigate our insurance risk exposure, including: underwriting; setting exposure limits, deductibles and exclusions to mitigate policy risk; updating and reviewing the terms and conditions of our policies; managing risk aggregation by product line, geography, industry type, credit exposure and other bases; and ceding insurance risk. We seek to monitor and control our exposure to risks arising out of these activities through an enterprise-wide risk management framework. However, there are inherent limitations in all of these tactics, and no assurance can be given that these processes and procedures will effectively control all known risks or effectively identify unforeseen risks or that an event or series of events will not result in loss levels in excess of our probable maximum loss models, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition or results of operations. It is also possible that losses could manifest themselves in ways that we do not anticipate and that our risk mitigation strategies are not designed to address. Such a manifestation of losses could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition or results of operations. These risks may be heightened during times of challenging macro economic conditions.

We cannot guarantee the adequacy of or ability to maintain our current level of reinsurance coverage.

Similar to insurance companies, reinsurance companies can also be adversely impacted when catastrophes occur. There can be no assurance that we will be able to maintain our current levels of reinsurance coverage. In particular, and as discussed under “Reinsurance Program Overview”, not all of our 2019 reinsurance programs for the Commercial and Personal Lines are fully placed. Reinsurance is a significant factor in our overall cost of providing primary insurance. However, unlike primary insurers, reinsurers are not subject to rate or other restrictions requiring them to continue availability of reinsurance or limiting cost increases or mandating coverage forms. Future catastrophic events and other changes in the reinsurance marketplace, including as a result of investment losses or disruptions due to challenges in the financial markets that have occurred or could occur in the future, may adversely affect our ability to obtain such coverages, as well as adversely affect the cost of obtaining that coverage.

Additionally, the availability, scope of coverage, cost, and creditworthiness of reinsurance could continue to be adversely affected as a result of not only new catastrophes, but also terrorist attacks and the perceived risks associated with future terrorist activities, global conflicts, including the threat of nuclear conflict, and the changing legal and regulatory environment (including changes which could create new insured risks). Federal reinsurance for terrorism risks coverage offered by insurers is available under TRIPRA, but it only applies to certified events of terrorism (as defined in TRIPRA) and contains certain caps and deductibles. Although TRIPRA coverage is in effect through December 31, 2020, should this program not be renewed or should it be modified unfavorably by the government in the future, private reinsurance for events of terrorism may not be available to us or available at reasonable or acceptable rates.

Although we monitor their financial soundness, we cannot be sure that our reinsurers will pay in a timely fashion, if at all.

We purchase reinsurance by transferring part of the risk that we have assumed (known as ceding) to reinsurance companies in exchange for part of the premium we receive in connection with the risk. As of December 31, 2018, our reinsurance receivable (including from the MCCA) amounted to approximately $1.6 billion. Although reinsurance makes the reinsurer liable to us to the extent the risk is transferred or ceded to the reinsurer, it does not relieve us (the reinsured) of our liability to our policyholders. Accordingly, we bear counterparty risk with respect to our reinsurers. Although we monitor the credit quality of our reinsurers, we cannot be sure that they will pay the reinsurance recoverables owed to us currently or in the future or that they will pay such recoverables on a timely basis. The contractual obligations under reinsurance agreements are typically with individual subsidiaries of the group and are not typically guaranteed by other group members. In certain circumstances, reinsurers must generally provide collateral equal to 100% of estimated reinsurance recoverables. The collateral can serve to mitigate credit risk. In the event of losses, we may look to ‘draw-down’ on this collateral to satisfy reinsurance recoveries due to us, but if the collateral held is insufficient to meet those recoveries, we will be exposed to losses.

There are concerns that the increased frequency and severity of weather-related catastrophes and other losses, such as from wildfires, incurred by the industry in 2018 and in prior years is indicative of changing weather patterns, whether as a result of climate-warming trends (“global climate change”) caused by human activities or otherwise, which could cause such events to persist. Increased weather-related catastrophes would lead to higher overall losses, which we may not be able to recoup, particularly in a highly regulated and competitive environment, and higher reinsurance costs. As noted above, certain catastrophe models assume an increase in frequency and severity of certain weather or other events, which could result in a disproportionate impact on insurers with certain geographic concentrations of risk. This would also likely increase the risks of writing property insurance in coastal areas or areas susceptible to wildfires or flooding, particularly in jurisdictions that restrict pricing and underwriting flexibility. The threat of rising seas or other catastrophe losses as a result of global climate change may also cause property values in coastal or such other communities to decrease, reducing the total amount of insurance coverage that is required.

In addition, global climate change could have an impact on assets in which we invest, resulting in realized and unrealized losses in future periods that could have a material adverse impact on our results of operations and/or financial position. It is not possible to foresee which, if any, assets, industries or markets will be materially and adversely affected, nor is it possible to foresee the magnitude of such effect.

We may incur financial losses resulting from our participation in shared market mechanisms, mandatory reinsurance programs and mandatory and voluntary pooling arrangements.

In most of the jurisdictions in which we operate, our property and casualty insurance subsidiaries are required to participate in mandatory property and casualty shared market mechanisms, government-sponsored reinsurance programs or pooling arrangements. These arrangements are designed to provide various insurance coverages to individuals or other entities that are otherwise unable to purchase such coverage or to support the costs of uninsured motorist claims in a particular state or region. We cannot predict whether our participation in these shared market mechanisms or pooling arrangements will provide underwriting profits or losses to us. For the year ended December 31, 2018, we experienced an underwriting loss of $23.2 million from participation in these mechanisms and pooling arrangements, compared to underwriting losses of $13.6 million and $12.7 million in 2017 and 2016, respectively. We may face similar or more significant earnings fluctuations in the future.

Additionally, increases in the number of participants or insureds in state-sponsored reinsurance pools, FAIR Plans or other residual market mechanisms, particularly in the states of Massachusetts, Texas, California, New York, or North Carolina, combined with regulatory restrictions on the ability to adequately price, underwrite, or non-renew business, as well as new legislation, or changes in existing case law, could expose us to significant exposures and risks of increased assessments from these residual market mechanisms. There could also be a significant adverse impact as a result of losses incurred in those states due to hurricane or other high loss exposures, as well as the declining number of carriers providing coverage in those regions. We are unable to predict the likelihood or impact of such potential assessments or other actions.

We also have credit risk associated with certain mandatory reinsurance programs such as the MCCA. The MCCA was created to fund Michigan’s unique unlimited personal injury protection benefit. As of December 31, 2018, our estimated reinsurance recoverable from the MCCA was $977.1 million. In most years, the MCCA operates with a balance sheet deficit, which may fluctuate significantly based on investment returns, discount rates, incurred claims, annual assessments and other factors, although historically its annual operations have been cash flow positive.

In addition, we may be adversely affected by liabilities resulting from our previous participation in certain voluntary property and casualty assumed reinsurance pools. We have terminated our participation in virtually all property and casualty voluntary pools, but we remain subject to claims related to the periods during which we participated. The property and casualty industry’s assumed reinsurance businesses have suffered substantial losses during the past several years, particularly related to environmental and asbestos exposure for property and casualty coverages, in some cases resulting from incidents alleged to have occurred decades ago. Due to the inherent volatility in these businesses, possible issues related to the enforceability of reinsurance treaties in the industry and the continuing history of increased losses, we cannot provide assurance that our current reserves are adequate or that we will not incur losses in the future. Our operating results and financial position may be adversely affected by liabilities resulting from any such claims in excess of our loss estimates. As of December 31, 2018, our reserves totaled $37.5 million for these legacy voluntary property and casualty assumed reinsurance pools, with the largest being the Excess Casualty Reinsurance Association (ECRA) pool.

Our businesses are heavily regulated, and changes in regulation may reduce our profitability.

Our insurance businesses are subject to supervision and regulation by the state insurance authority in each state where we transact business. This system of supervision and regulation relates to numerous aspects of an insurance company’s business and financial condition, including limitations on the authorization of lines of business, underwriting limitations, the ability to utilize credit-based insurance scores or other factors in underwriting, the ability to terminate agents, supervisory and liability responsibilities for agents, the setting of premium rates, the requirement to write certain classes of business that we might otherwise avoid or charge different premium rates, restrictions on the ability to withdraw from certain lines of business or terminate policies or classes of policyholders, the establishment of standards of solvency, the licensing of insurers and agents, compensation of and contractual arrangements with, independent agents, concentration of investments, levels of reserves, the payment of dividends, transactions with affiliates, changes of control, protection of private information of our agents, policyholders, claimants and others (which may include highly sensitive financial or medical information or other private information such as social security numbers, driving records, driver’s license numbers, etc.) and the approval of policy forms. From time to time, various states and Congress have proposed to prohibit or otherwise restrict the use of credit-based insurance scores in underwriting or rating our Personal Lines business. The elimination of the use of credit-based insurance scores could cause significant disruption to our business and our confidence in our pricing and underwriting. Most insurance regulations are designed to protect the interests of policyholders rather than stockholders and other investors.

Legislative and regulatory restrictions are constantly evolving and are subject to then current political pressures. For example, following major events, states have considered, and in some cases adopted, proposals such as homeowners’ “Bill of Rights,” restrictions on storm deductibles, additional mandatory claim handling guidelines and mandatory coverages. More recently, the California Insurance Commissioner requested that all insurers operating in California voluntarily divest from any investments they may have in thermal coal, and the New York Department of Financial Services and regulatory agencies in other states have enacted comprehensive cybersecurity regulations. Such actions also occur at the federal level, such as the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s proposal that may increase the legal risk of providing homeowners and commercial residential property insurance by imposing liability for discrimination on the basis of a disparate-impact theory even without evidence of discriminatory intent. Some states are also considering mandating owners of firearms to purchase liability insurance and various other states strictly scrutinize first party coverages under such policies.

In addition, The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act provides for enhanced regulation for the financial services industry through initiatives including, but not limited to, the creation of a Federal Insurance Office and several federal oversight agencies, the requiring of more transparency, accountability and focus in protecting investors and businesses, input of shareholders regarding executive compensation, and enhanced empowerment of regulators to pursue those who engage in financial fraud and unethical business practices. The SEC adopted regulations designed to encourage, reward, and protect “whistleblowers”, whether or not they first report the potential infraction to the company for correction or remedial action.

Also, the federal Medicare, Medicaid and State Children’s Health Insurance Program Extension Act mandates reporting and other requirements applicable to property and casualty insurance companies that make payments to or on behalf of claimants who are eligible for Medicare benefits. These requirements have made bodily injury claim resolutions more difficult, particularly for complex matters or for injuries requiring treatment over an extended period, and impose significant penalties for non-compliance and reporting errors. These requirements also have increased the circumstances under which the federal government may seek to recover from insurers amounts paid to claimants in circumstances where the government had previously paid benefits. In January 2013, the Strengthening Medicare and Repaying Taxpayers Act was signed into law and provided for implementation over a staggered period of time. We are continuing to monitor the effect of this law on our ability to settle cases and our exposure to federal recoupment claims.

State regulatory oversight and various proposals at the federal level may in the future adversely affect our ability to sustain adequate returns in certain lines of business or in some cases, operate lines profitably. In recent years, the state insurance regulatory framework has come under increased federal scrutiny, and certain state legislatures have considered or enacted laws that alter and, in many cases, increase state authority to regulate insurance companies and insurance holding company systems.

Our business could be negatively impacted by adverse state and federal legislation or regulation, or judicial developments, including those resulting in:

These regulations serve to protect the customers and other third parties who deal with us and are heavily influenced by the then current political environment. If we are found to have violated an applicable regulation, administrative or judicial proceedings may be initiated against us that could result in censures, fines, civil penalties (including punitive damages), the issuance of cease-and-desist orders, premium refunds or the reopening of closed claim files, among other consequences. These actions could have a material adverse effect on our financial position and results of operations.

From time to time, Congress, as well as state and local governments, also consider legislation that could increase or modify our tax costs. For example, on December 22, 2017, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (“TCJA”) was enacted and included reductions in the U.S. corporate income tax rate, changes to the cost of related party reinsurance for foreign-owned insurers, and changes to the tax base, that impacted our effective tax rate in 2018 and will continue to have an impact in future years. The TCJA also reduced the carrying value of our net deferred tax asset upon implementation. Although we have estimated the effect that the TCJA will have on our current deferred tax position, there can be no assurance that these estimates won’t change based on new interpretations of the TCJA or in the event that new information related to our current tax position becomes known. Although we believe that the TCJA will continue to result in a lower effective tax rate in future years as compared to years prior to enactment, competitive and state regulatory pressures may force us to enact rate and pricing decreases for our insurance products, which may reduce the net benefit of the tax reduction or significantly limit our ability to realize this benefit beyond the short term.

In addition, we are reliant upon independent agents and brokers to market our products. Changes in regulations related to insurance agents and brokers that materially impact the profitability of the agent and broker business or that restrict the ability of agents and brokers to market and sell insurance products would have a material adverse effect on our business.

Further, as we continue to expand our business into new regions, either organically or through acquisition, we become subject to the regulations and different regulatory bodies governing such business in those locales.

From time to time, we are also involved in investigations and proceedings by federal, state, and other governmental and self-regulatory agencies. We cannot provide assurance that these investigations, proceedings and inquiries will not result in actions that would adversely affect our results of operations or financial condition.

We are subject to litigation risks, including risks relating to the application and interpretation of contracts, and adverse outcomes in litigation and legal proceedings could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.

We are subject to litigation risks, including risks relating to the application and interpretation of insurance and reinsurance contracts and our handling of claim matters (which can lead to bad faith and other forms of extra-contractual liability), and are routinely involved in litigation that challenges specific terms and language incorporated into property and casualty contracts, such as claims reimbursements, covered perils and exclusion clauses, among others, or the interpretation or administration of such contracts. We are also involved in legal actions that do not arise in the ordinary course of business, some of which assert claims for substantial amounts. Adverse outcomes could materially affect our results of operations and financial condition.

We are subject to mandatory assessments by state guaranty funds; an increase in these assessments could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.

All fifty U.S. states and the District of Columbia have insurance guaranty fund laws requiring property and casualty insurance companies doing business within the state to participate in guaranty associations. These associations are organized to pay contractual obligations under insurance policies issued by impaired or insolvent insurance companies. The associations levy assessments, up to prescribed limits, on all member insurers in a particular state on the basis of the proportionate share of the premiums written by member insurers in the lines of business in which the impaired or insolvent insurer is engaged. Although mandatory assessments by state guaranty funds that are used to cover losses to policyholders of insolvent or rehabilitated companies can be substantially recovered over time through policyholder surcharges or a reduction in future premium taxes in many states (provided the collecting insurer continues to write business in such state), there can be no assurance that all funds will be recoupable in the future. During 2018, we had a total assessment of $3.9 million levied against us, with refunds of $0.4 million received in 2018 for a total net assessment of $3.5 million. As of December 31, 2018, we have $0.5 million of reserves related to guaranty fund assessments. In the future, these assessments may increase above levels experienced in prior years. Future increases in these assessments depend upon the rate of insolvencies of insurance companies. An increase in assessments could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.

If we are unable to attract and retain qualified personnel, or if we experience the loss or retirement of key executives or other key employees, we may not be able to compete effectively and our operations could be impacted significantly.

Our future success will be affected by our continued ability to attract, develop and retain qualified executives and other key employees, particularly those experienced in the property and casualty industry.

Our profitability could be adversely affected by our relationships with our agencies.

We distribute our products exclusively through independent agents and brokers who have the principal relationships with policyholders. Agents and brokers generally own the “renewal rights,” and thus our business model is dependent on our relationships with, and the success of, the agents and brokers with whom we do business.

We periodically review the agencies, including managing general agencies, with whom we do business, to identify those that do not meet our profitability standards or are not aligned with our business objectives. Following these periodic reviews, we may restrict such agencies’ access to certain types of policies or terminate our relationship with them, subject to applicable contractual and regulatory requirements that limit our ability to terminate agents or require us to renew policies. We may not achieve the desired results from these measures, and our failure to do so could negatively affect our operating results and financial position.

Because we rely on independent agents as our sales channel, any deterioration in the relationships with our independent agents or failure to provide competitive compensation to our independent agents could lead agents to place more premium with other carriers and less premium with us. In addition, we could be adversely affected if the agencies, including managing general agencies, with whom we do business exceed the authority that we have given them, fail to transfer premium to us or breach the obligations that they owe to us. Although we routinely monitor our agency relationships, such actions could expose us to liability and have a negative impact on our results of operations and financial condition.

Also, if agency consolidation continues at its current pace or increases in the future and more agencies are consolidated into larger agencies or managing general agencies, our sales channel could be materially affected in a number of ways, including loss of market access or market share in certain geographic areas if an acquirer is not one of our appointed agencies, loss of agency talent as the people most knowledgeable about our products and with whom we have developed strong working relationships exit the business following a disposition of an agency, increases in our commission costs as larger agencies acquire more negotiating leverage over their fees, and interfere with the core agency business of selling insurance due to integration or distraction. Any such disruption that materially affects our sales channel could have a negative impact on our results of operations and financial condition.

As the speed of digitization accelerates, we are subject to risks associated with both our agents’ and our ability to keep pace. In an increasingly digital world, agents who cannot provide a digital or technology-driven experience risk losing customers who demand such an experience, and such customers may choose to utilize more technology-driven agents or abandon the independent agency channel altogether. Additionally, if we are not able to keep pace with competitors’ digital offerings, we may not be able to meet the demand from our agents or their customers, which could lead to a loss of customers, agents or both. A loss of agents or customers could negatively affect our operating results and financial position.

We may be affected by disruptions caused by the introduction of new products, related technology changes, and new operating models in Commercial Lines, Personal Lines and Specialty businesses and recent or future acquisitions, and expansion into new geographic areas.

There are increased underwriting risks associated with premium growth and the introduction of new products or programs in our Commercial Lines, Personal Lines and Specialty businesses. Additionally, there are increased underwriting risks associated with the appointment of new agencies and managing general agencies and with the expansion into new geographical areas.

The introduction of new Commercial Lines products and the development of new niche and specialty lines, presents new risks. Certain new specialty products may present longer “tail” risks and increased volatility in profitability. Our expansion into western states, including California, presents additional underwriting risks since the regulatory, geographic, natural risk, legal environment, demographic, business, economic and other characteristics of these states present challenges different from those in the states where we historically have conducted business. In addition, our agency relationships in these new geographies are not as developed.

Our Personal Lines production and earnings may be unfavorably affected by the continued introduction of new products, expanded risk appetites and our focus on account business (i.e., policyholders who have both automobile and homeowner insurance with us) that we believe, despite pricing discounts, will ultimately be more profitable business. We may also experience adverse selection, which occurs when insureds purchase our products because of under-pricing, operational difficulties or implementation impediments with independent agents or the inability to grow new markets after the introduction of new products or the appointment of new agents.

As we enter new states or regions or grow business, there can be no assurance that we won’t experience higher loss trends than anticipated.

We may experience difficulties with technology, data security and/or outsourcing relationships, which could have a negative impact on our ability to conduct our business.

We use computer systems to store, retrieve, evaluate and utilize customer and company data and information. Our computer, information technology and telecommunications systems, in turn, interface with and rely upon third-party systems, including cloud-based data storage. Our business is highly dependent on our ability, and the ability of certain third parties, to access these systems to perform necessary business functions, including, without limitation, providing insurance quotes, processing premium payments, making changes to existing policies, filing and paying claims, providing customer support and managing investment portfolios. Systems attacks, failures or outages could compromise our ability to perform these functions in a timely manner, which could harm our ability to conduct business and hurt our relationships with our business partners and customers. In the event of a disaster such as a natural catastrophe, an industrial accident, a blackout, a computer virus, a cyber security attack, a terrorist attack or war, or interference from solar flares, our systems or the external systems that we rely on may be inaccessible to our employees, customers or business partners for an extended period of time. Even if our employees are able to report to work, they may be unable to perform their duties for an extended period of time if our data or the systems that we rely on are disabled or destroyed or if our disaster recovery plans are inadequate or suffer from unforeseen consequences. This could result in a materially adverse effect on our business results and liquidity.

In addition, we outsource certain technology and business process functions and data storage to third parties and may do so increasingly in the future. If we do not effectively develop, implement and monitor our outsourcing strategies, third-party providers do not perform as anticipated or we experience technological or other problems with a transition, we may not realize productivity improvements or cost efficiencies and may experience operational difficulties, increased costs and a loss of business. Our outsourcing of certain technology, data storage and business process functions to third parties may expose us to enhanced risk related to data security, which could result in monetary and reputational damages. In addition, our ability to receive services from third-party providers outside of the United States might be impacted by cultural differences, political instability, regulatory requirements or policies inside or outside of the United States. As a result, our ability to conduct our business might be adversely affected.

Data security incidents, including, but not limited to, those resulting from a malicious cyber security attack on us or our business partners and service providers, could disrupt or otherwise negatively impact our business.

Our systems and the systems that we rely on, like others in the financial services industry, are vulnerable to cyber security risks, and we are subject to disruption and other adverse effects caused by such activities. Large corporations such as ours are subject to daily attacks on their systems and other vulnerabilities to data security incidents. These attacks and incidents have included, or may in the future include: unauthorized access, viruses, malware or other malicious code, ransomware, deceptive social engineering campaigns (also known as “phishing” or “spoofing”), loss or theft of assets, employee errors or malfeasance, third-party errors or malfeasance, as well as system failures and other security events. Such attacks may have various goals, from seeking confidential information or the misdirection of payments, to causing operational disruption. Such activities could result in material disruptions to our operations, financial loss or material damage to our reputation. Like other companies, we have from time to time experienced, and are likely to continue to experience, security events, and while none of these events to date have had a material adverse effect on our business, no assurances can be made that such attacks or security events will not have a material adverse effect on our business in the future. As the breadth and complexity of cyber security attacks and other data security events become more prevalent and the methods used to perpetrate them evolve, we may be required to devote additional personnel, or financial or systems resources, to protecting our data security or investigating or remediating vulnerabilities as a result of data security incidents. Such resources could be costly in time and expenses, and could detract from resources spent on our core property and casualty insurance operations. In addition, we may not be able to detect an incident, assess its severity or impact, or appropriately respond in a timely manner, which could increase our exposure to an incident.

The third parties with whom we work are also subject to these same risks, and we are vulnerable if a cyber security attack or other data security incident involves a third party vendor or service provider. Such an event could threaten to disrupt our business if the third party’s operations are compromised, or provide attackers an avenue to pivot and attack our systems by exploiting the relationships that we have with our trusted business partners. While we take measures to protect against such events (e.g., utilizing secure transmission capabilities with third-party vendors and others with whom we do business when possible), review and assess our third party providers’ cybersecurity controls, as appropriate, and make changes to our business processes to manage these risks, we cannot assure that our efforts will always be successful.

Any failure to protect the confidentiality of customer information could adversely affect our reputation or expose us to fines, penalties or litigation, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

We are required to safeguard the confidential personal information of our customers and applicants and are subject to an increasing number of federal, state, local and international laws and regulations regarding privacy and data security, as well as contractual commitments. These laws and regulations are rapidly evolving, complex, vary significantly from jurisdiction to jurisdiction, and sometimes conflict. We could be subject to governmental enforcement actions and fines, penalties, litigation, or public statements against us by consumer advocacy groups or others if confidential customer information is misappropriated from our computer systems, those of our vendors or others with whom we do business, or otherwise. Despite the security measures that may be in place, any such systems may be vulnerable to the types of attacks and security incidents described above. Any well-publicized compromise of security could deter people from entering into transactions that involve transmitting confidential information, or damage our reputation, which could have a material adverse effect on our business.

There can be no assurance that we will be able to successfully integrate future acquisitions or that we will not assume unknown liabilities and reserve deficiencies in connection with such acquisitions. If we are unable to successfully integrate new businesses, then we could be impeded from realizing the benefits of an acquisition. The integration process could disrupt our business, and a failure to successfully integrate newer businesses could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. The difficulties of integrating an acquisition and risks to our business include, among others:

In addition, even if we are able to successfully integrate future acquisitions, we may not realize the full benefits of such acquisitions, including the synergies, cost savings or underwriting or growth opportunities that we expect. It is possible that these benefits may not be achieved within the anticipated time frame, or at all.

Intense competition could negatively affect our ability to maintain or increase our profitability, particularly in light of the various competitive, financial, strategic, structural, informational and resource advantages that our competitors have.

We compete, and will continue to compete, with a large number of companies, including international, national and regional insurers, specialty insurance companies, so called “off-shore” companies which enjoy certain tax advantages, underwriting agencies and financial services institutions. We also compete with mutual insurance companies, reciprocal and exchange companies that may not have shareholders and may have different profitability targets than publicly or privately owned companies. In recent years, there has been substantial consolidation and convergence among companies in the financial services industry, resulting in increased competition from large, well-capitalized financial services firms. Many of our competitors have greater financial, technical and operating resources than we do, greater access to “big data,” and may be able to offer a wider range of, or more sophisticated, commercial and personal line products. Some of our competitors also have different marketing, advertising and sales strategies than we do and market and sell their products to consumers directly. Some companies are seeking to protect new products with patents or other legal protections, which may create new legal exposures or limit our ability to develop competing products. In addition, competition in the U.S. property and casualty insurance market has intensified over the past several years. This competition has had, and may continue to have, an adverse impact on our revenues and profitability.

A number of new, proposed or potential legislative or industry developments could further increase competition in our industry. These developments include:

We could face heightened competition resulting from the entry of new competitors and the introduction of new products by new and existing competitors. Additionally, recent entries into the property and casualty marketplace by large technology companies, retail companies, so-called “Insurtech” companies and other non-traditional insurance providers, who aim to leverage their information about and direct access to customers, technology without the burden of legacy systems, access and ability to manipulate “big data,” artificial intelligence or other developing opportunities, may increase competition. Increased competition could make it difficult for us to obtain new or retain existing customers. It could also result in increasing our service, administrative, policy acquisition or general expenses as we seek to distinguish our products and services from those of our competitors. In addition, our administrative, technology and management information systems expenditures could increase substantially as we try to maintain or improve our competitive position or keep up with evolving technology.

We compete for business not just on the basis of price, but also on the basis of product coverages, reputation, financial strength, quality of service (including claims adjustment service), experience and breadth of product offering. We cannot provide assurance that we will be able to maintain a competitive position in the markets where we operate, or that we will be able to expand our operations into new markets.

We are rated by several rating agencies, and downgrades to our ratings could adversely affect our operations.

Our ratings are important in establishing our competitive position and marketing the products of our insurance companies to our agents and customers. Rating information is broadly disseminated and generally used throughout the industry. Many policyholders, particularly larger commercial customers, will not purchase, and many agents will not distribute, products of insurers that do not meet certain financial strength ratings.

Our insurance company subsidiaries are rated by A.M. Best, Moody’s, and Standard & Poor’s. These ratings reflect the rating agency’s opinion of our insurance subsidiaries’ financial strength, operating performance, position in the market place, risk management, and ability to meet their obligations to policyholders. These ratings are not evaluations directed to investors, and are not recommendations to buy, sell or hold our securities. Our ratings are subject to periodic review by the rating agencies, and we cannot guarantee the continued retention or improvement of our current ratings. This is particularly true given that rating agencies may change their criteria or increase capital requirements for various rating levels.

A downgrade in one or more of our or any of our subsidiaries’ claims-paying ratings could negatively impact our business and competitive position, particularly in lines where customers require us to maintain minimum ratings. Additionally, a downgrade in one or more of our debt ratings could adversely impact our ability to access the capital markets and other sources of funds, increase the cost of current credit facilities, and/or adversely affect pricing of new debt sought in the capital markets in the future. Our ability to raise capital in the equity markets could also be adversely affected.

Negative changes in our level of statutory surplus could adversely affect our ratings and profitability.

The capacity for an insurance company’s growth in premiums is in part a function of its statutory surplus. Maintaining appropriate levels of statutory surplus, as measured by state insurance regulators, is considered important by state insurance regulatory authorities and by rating agencies that rate insurers’ claims-paying abilities and financial strength. As our business grows, or due to other factors, regulators may require that additional capital be retained or contributed to increase the level of statutory surplus. Failure to maintain certain levels of statutory surplus could result in increased regulatory scrutiny, action by state regulatory authorities or a downgrade by private rating agencies. Our surplus is affected by, among other things, results of operations and investment gains, losses, impairments, and dividends from the insurance operating company to its parent company. A number of these factors affecting our level of statutory surplus are, in turn, influenced by factors that are out of our control, including the frequency and severity of catastrophes, changes in policyholder behavior, changes in rating agency models and economic factors such as changes in equity markets, credit markets, interest rates or foreign currency exchange rates.

The NAIC uses a system for assessing the adequacy of statutory capital for property and casualty insurers. The system, known as risk-based capital, is in addition to the states’ fixed dollar minimum capital and other requirements. The system is based on risk-based formulas that apply prescribed factors to the various risk elements in an insurer’s business and investments to report a minimum capital requirement proportional to the amount of risk assumed by the insurer. Any failure to maintain appropriate levels of statutory surplus would have an adverse impact on our ability to maintain or grow our business.

We may not be able to grow as quickly or as profitably as we intend, which is important to our current strategy.

Over the past several years, we have made, and our current plans are to continue to make, significant investments in our Commercial and Personal Lines of business, in order to, among other things, strengthen our product offerings and service capabilities, expand into new geographic areas, improve technology and our operating models, build expertise in our personnel, and expand our distribution capabilities, with the ultimate goal of achieving significant, sustained growth. The ability to achieve significant profitable premium growth in order to earn adequate returns on such investments and expenses, and to grow further without proportionate increases in expenses, is an important part of our current strategy. There can be no assurance that we will be successful at profitably growing our business, or that we will not alter our current strategy due to changes in our markets or an inability to successfully maintain acceptable margins on new or existing business or for other reasons, in which case premiums written and earned, operating income and net book value could be adversely affected.

An impairment in the carrying value of goodwill and intangible assets could negatively impact our consolidated results of operations and shareholders’ equity.

Upon an acquisition of a business, we record goodwill and intangible assets at fair value. Goodwill and intangible assets determined to have indefinite useful lives are not amortized, while other intangible assets are amortized over their estimated useful lives. Goodwill and intangible assets that are not amortized are reviewed for impairment at least annually. Evaluating the recoverability of such assets requires us to rely on estimates and assumptions related to return on equity, margin, growth rates, discount rates, and other data. There are inherent uncertainties related to these factors, and significant judgment is required in applying these factors. Goodwill and intangible asset impairment charges can result from declines in operating results, divestitures or sustained market declines and other factors. As of December 31, 2018, goodwill and intangible assets that are not amortized totaled $207 million and represented approximately 7% of shareholders’ equity. Our legacy Hanover and Citizens businesses represent 63% of this balance; AIX represents 24% of this balance; and, the remaining acquisitions combined represent 13% of this balance. Although we believe these assets are recoverable, we cannot provide assurance that future market or business conditions would not result in the impairment of a portion of these assets. Impairment charges could materially affect our financial position and our financial results in the quarter or annual period in which they are recognized.

We could be subject to additional losses related to the sale of our discontinued FAFLIC and variable life insurance and annuity businesses and our recent sale of our Chaucer business.

On January 2, 2009, we sold our remaining life insurance subsidiary, FAFLIC, to Commonwealth Annuity and Life Insurance Company. Coincident with the sale transaction, Hanover Insurance and FAFLIC entered into a reinsurance contract whereby Hanover Insurance assumed FAFLIC’s discontinued accident and health insurance business. We previously owned Commonwealth Annuity, but sold it in 2005 in conjunction with our disposal of our variable life insurance and annuity business. In connection with these transactions, we have agreed to indemnify Commonwealth Annuity for certain contingent liabilities, including litigation and other regulatory matters.

On December 28, 2018, we sold the majority of our Chaucer business (specifically our U.K.-based Lloyd’s entities) to China Re. In connection with this transaction, we made certain representations and warranties and agreed to indemnify China Re for certain pre-sale contingent liabilities.

We cannot provide assurance as to what the costs of any indemnifications will be when they ultimately settle.

We may incur financial losses related to our discontinued assumed accident and health reinsurance pools and arrangements.

We previously participated, through FAFLIC, in approximately 40 assumed accident and health reinsurance pools and arrangements. The business was retained in the sale of FAFLIC and assumed by Hanover Insurance through a reinsurance agreement. In 1999, prior to the sale of FAFLIC to Commonwealth Annuity, FAFLIC had ceased writing new premiums in this business, subject to certain contractual obligations. The reinsurance pool business consists primarily of long-term care, the medical and disability portions of workers’ compensation risks, assumed personal accident, individual medical, long-term disability and special risk business. We are currently monitoring and managing the run-off of our related participation in the 24 pools with remaining liabilities.

Loss estimates associated with substantially all of the discontinued accident and health business are provided by managers of each pool. Reserve estimates for this business are subject to the variability caused by extended loss emergence periods. The estimation of reserves for this business is further complicated by delays between the time a claim is reported to the ceding insurer and when the claim, premium and other pertinent policy data is reported by the ceding insurer to the pool manager and then to us, and by our dependence on the quality and consistency of the claim cost reporting by the ceding company and actuarial estimates by the pool manager. We adopt reserve estimates for this business that consider this information, expected returns on assets assigned to this business and other facts. We update these reserves as new information becomes available and further events occur that may affect the ultimate resolution of unsettled claims. Based on information provided to us by the pool managers, we believe that the reserves recorded related to this business are adequate. However, since reserve and claim cost estimates related to the discontinued accident and health business are dependent on several assumptions, including, but not limited to, morbidity, lapses, future premium rates, future health care costs, persistency of medical care inflation and investment performance, and these assumptions can be impacted by technical developments and advancements in the medical field and other factors, there can be no assurance that the reserves established for this business will prove sufficient. Revisions to these reserves could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations for a particular quarterly or annual period or on our financial position.

Our long-term care pool accounts for the majority of our remaining accident and health reinsurance pool business. The potential risk and exposure of our long-term care pool is based upon expected estimated claims and payment patterns, using assumptions for, among other things, morbidity, lapses, future premium rates, and the interest rate used for discounting the future projected cash flows. The long-term exposure of this pool depends upon how our actual experience compares with these future cash flow projection assumptions. If any of our assumptions prove to be inaccurate, our reserves may be inadequate, which may have a material adverse effect on our results of operations. For example, during the fourth quarter of 2017, we received updated future cash flow projections from the manager of our long-term care pool that reflected a significant increase in projected claim costs. As a result of this deterioration, we increased our long-term care pool reserves by $23.3 million (44%), before tax, during the fourth quarter of 2017 and we continue to monitor developments in the legacy long-term care industry.

For some of these pools and arrangements, we variously acted as a reinsurer, a reinsured or both. In some instances, we ceded significant exposures to other reinsurers in the marketplace. The potential risk to us as a participant in such pools is primarily that other companies that reinsured this business from us may fail to pay their reinsurance obligations. Thus, we are exposed to both assumed losses and to credit risk related to these pools.

Based on the information provided by the pool managers, we believe that the reserves recorded related to this business are appropriate. However, due to the inherent volatility in this business and the reporting lag of losses that tend to develop over time and which ultimately affect excess covers, as well as uncertainty surrounding both future claim expenses and with future premium rate levels for certain of these businesses, there can be no assurance that current reserves are adequate or that we will not have additional losses in the future. Although we have discontinued participation in these reinsurance arrangements, unreported and new claims related to the years in which we were a participant may be reported, and previously reported claims may develop unfavorably. If any such unreported claims or unfavorable development is reported to us, our results of operations and financial position may be negatively impacted.

Other market fluctuations and general economic, market and political conditions may also negatively affect our business, profitability, investment portfolio, and the market value of our common stock.

It is difficult to predict the impact of a challenging economic environment on our business. In Commercial Lines, a difficult economy has resulted in reductions in demand for insurance products and services since there are more companies ceasing to do business and there are fewer business start-ups, particularly as businesses are affected by a decline in overall consumer and business spending. Additionally, claims frequency could increase as policyholders submit and pursue claims more aggressively than in the past, fraud incidences may increase, or we may experience higher incidents of abandoned properties or poorer maintenance, which may also result in more claims activity. We have experienced higher workers’ compensation claims as injured employees take longer to return to work, increased surety losses as construction companies experience financial pressures and higher retroactive premium returns as audit results reflect lower payrolls. Our business could also be affected by an ensuing consolidation of independent insurance agencies. Our ability to increase pricing has been impacted as agents and policyholders have been more price sensitive, customers shop for policies more frequently or aggressively, utilize comparative rating models or, in Personal Lines in particular, turn to direct sales channels rather than independent agents. We have also experienced decreased new business premium levels, retention and

renewal rates, and renewal premiums. Specifically, in Personal Lines, policyholders may reduce coverages or change deductibles to reduce premiums, experience declining home values, or be subject to increased foreclosures, and policyholders may retain older or less expensive automobiles and purchase or insure fewer ancillary items such as boats, trailers and motor homes for which we provide coverages. Additionally, if as a result of a difficult economic environment, drivers continue to eliminate automobile insurance coverage or to reduce their bodily injury limit, we may be exposed to more uninsured and underinsured motorist coverage losses. Conversely, favorable economic conditions may also impact our business and results of operations. For example, recent low unemployment has caused employers to hire less experienced workers, which has contributed to higher workers’ compensation and commercial automobile losses.

At December 31, 2018, we held approximately $8.3 billion of investment assets in categories such as fixed maturities, equity securities, other investments, and cash and short-term investments. Our investments are primarily concentrated in the domestic market. Our investment returns, and thus our profitability, statutory surplus and shareholders’ equity, may be adversely affected from time to time by conditions affecting our specific investments and, more generally, by bond, stock, real estate and other market fluctuations and general economic, market and political conditions, including the impact of changing government policies, including monetary policies, and geopolitical risks. These broader market conditions are out of our control. Our ability to make a profit on insurance products depends in part on the returns on investments supporting our obligations under these products, and the value of specific investments may fluctuate substantially depending on the foregoing conditions. We may use a variety of strategies to hedge our exposure to interest and currency rates and other market risks. However, hedging strategies are not always available and carry certain credit risks, and our hedging could be ineffective. Moreover, increased government regulation of certain derivative transactions used to hedge certain market risks has served to prevent (or otherwise substantially increase the cost associated with) hedging such risks.

Additionally, the aggregate performance of our investment portfolio depends, to a significant extent, on the ability of our investment managers to select and manage appropriate investments. As a result, we are also exposed to operational risks, which may include, but are not limited to, a failure to follow our investment guidelines, technological and staffing deficiencies and inadequate disaster recovery plans. The failure of these investment managers to perform their services in a manner consistent with our expectations and investment objectives could adversely affect our ability to conduct our business.

Debt securities comprise a material portion of our investment portfolio. The concentration of our investment portfolio in any one type of investment, industry or geography could have a disproportionately adverse effect on our investment portfolio. The issuers of debt securities, as well as borrowers under the loans we make, customers, trading counterparties, counterparties under swaps and other derivative contracts, banks which have commitments under our various borrowing arrangements, and reinsurers, may be affected by declining market conditions or credit weaknesses. These parties may default on their obligations to us due to lack of liquidity, downturns in the economy or real estate values, operational failure, bankruptcy or other reasons. Future increases in interest rates could result in increased defaults as borrowers are unable to pay the additional borrowing costs on variable rate securities or obtain refinancing. We cannot provide assurance that further impairment charges will not be necessary in the future. In addition, evaluation of available-for-sale securities for other-than-temporary impairment includes inherent uncertainty and subjective determinations. We cannot be certain that such impairments are adequate as of any stated date. Our ability to fulfill our debt and other obligations could be adversely affected by the default of third parties on their obligations owed to us.

Deterioration in the global financial markets may adversely affect our investment portfolio and have a related impact on our other comprehensive income, shareholders’ equity and overall investment performance. As economic growth has improved in recent years, central bank policies and fiscal policies are either in transition or returning to a more prominent role across the globe, but the effects of such policies on financial markets are uncertain.

Market conditions also affect the value of assets under our employee pension plans, including our Cash Balance Plan. The expense or benefit related to our employee pension plans results from several factors, including, but not limited to, changes in the market value of plan assets, interest rates, regulatory requirements or judicial interpretation of benefits. At December 31, 2018, our plan assets included approximately 85% of fixed maturities and 15% of equity securities and other assets. Additionally, our net liabilities exceed assets by $18.8 million and $33.8 million for our qualified and non-qualified (which is an unfunded plan) pension plans, respectively, at December 31, 2018. Declines in the market value of plan assets and lower interest rates from levels at December 31, 2018, among other factors, could impact our funding estimates and negatively affect our results of operations. Deterioration in market conditions and differences between our assumptions and actual occurrences, and behaviors, could result in a need to fund more into the qualified plans to maintain an appropriate funding level.

These same market conditions and factors could also cause the market price of our common stock to fluctuate or become volatile, which could adversely affect our stock price. Because our stock price is influenced by our financial performance and other larger macro-economic factors that are out of our control, the price of our common stock may not remain at or exceed current or historical levels.

We may experience unrealized losses on our investments, especially during a period of heightened volatility, or if assumptions related to our investment valuations are changed, which could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations or financial condition.

Our investment portfolio and shareholders’ equity can be, and in the past have been, significantly impacted by changes in the market values of our securities. U.S. and global financial markets and economies remain uncertain. This could result in unrealized and realized losses in future periods, and adversely affect the liquidity of our investments, which could have a material adverse impact on our results of operations and our financial position. At December 31, 2018, our financial position (including assets-held-for-sale) was negatively affected by $85.9 million as a result of unrealized losses, largely driven by the low interest rate environment. Information with respect to interest rate sensitivity is included in “Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures” in Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition. Valuation of financial instruments (i.e., Level 1, 2, or 3) include methodologies, estimates, assumptions and judgments that are inherently subjective and open to different interpretations and could result in changes to investment valuations or the ability to receive such valuations on sale. During periods of market disruption, it may be difficult to value certain of our securities if trading becomes less frequent and/or market data becomes less observable. In addition, in times of financial market disruption, certain asset classes that were in active markets with significant observable data may become illiquid. In those cases, the valuation process includes inputs that are less observable and require more subjectivity and judgment by management. Furthermore, a change in the subjective methodologies, estimates, assumptions and judgments used to value our investments could also materially affect the valuation of certain investments.

If, following such declines, we are unable to hold our investment assets until they recover in value, or if such asset value never recovers, we would incur other-than-temporary impairments that would be recognized as realized losses in our results of operations, reduce net income and earnings per share and adversely affect our liquidity. Impairment determinations, like valuations, are also subjective, and changes to the methodologies, estimates, assumptions and judgments used to determine impairments may affect the timing and amount of impairment losses recognized in our results of operations. Temporary declines in the market value of fixed maturities are recorded as unrealized losses, which do not affect net income and earnings per share, but reduce other comprehensive income, which is reflected on our Consolidated Balance Sheets. We cannot provide assurance that we will not have additional other-than-temporary impairments and/or unrealized or realized investment losses in the future.

We invest a portion of our portfolio in common stock or preferred stocks. The value of these assets fluctuates with the equity markets. Particularly in times of economic weakness, the market value and liquidity of these assets may decline, and may impact net income, capital and cash flows.

We are exposed to significant capital market risks related to changes in interest rates, credit spreads, and equity prices, which may adversely affect our results of operations, financial position or cash flows.

We are exposed to significant capital markets risk related to changes in interest rates, credit spreads, and equity prices. If significant, declines in equity prices, changes in interest rates, and changes in credit spreads each could have a material adverse effect on our results, financial position or cash flows. Our exposure to interest rate risk relates primarily to the market price and cash flow variability associated with changes in interest rates. Our investment portfolio contains interest rate sensitive instruments, such as fixed income securities, which may be adversely affected by changes in interest rates from governmental monetary policies, domestic and international economic and political conditions and other factors beyond our control. A rise in market yields would reduce the fair value of our investment portfolio, but provide the opportunity to earn higher rates of return on funds reinvested. A further decline in interest rates, on the other hand, would increase the fair value of our investment portfolio, but we would earn lower rates of return on reinvested assets. We may be forced to liquidate investments prior to maturity at a loss in order to cover liabilities, and such liquidation could be accelerated in the event of significant loss events, such as catastrophes. Although we take measures to manage the economic risks of investing in a changing interest rate environment, we may not be able to mitigate the interest rate risk of our assets relative to our liabilities.

Our investment portfolio is invested primarily in high quality, investment-grade fixed income securities. However, we also invest in non-investment-grade high yield fixed income securities and alternative investments. These securities, which pay a higher rate of interest, also have a higher degree of credit or default risk. These securities may also be less liquid in times of economic weakness or market disruptions. Additionally, the reported value of our investments do not necessarily reflect the lowest current market price for the asset, and if we require significant amounts of cash on short notice, we may have difficulty selling our investments in a timely manner, be forced to sell them for less than we otherwise would have been able to realize, or both. While we have procedures to monitor the credit risk and liquidity of our invested assets, we expect from time to time, and particularly in periods of economic weakness, to experience default losses in our portfolio. This would result in a corresponding reduction of net income, capital and cash flows.

Inflationary pressures may negatively impact expenses, reserves and the value of investments.

Inflationary pressures in the U.S. with respect to medical and health care, automobile repair and construction costs, as well as social inflation of jury awards and settlement expectations, all of which are significant components of our indemnity liabilities under policies we issue to our customers, and which could also impact the adequacy of reserves we have set aside for prior accident years, may have a negative effect on our results of operations. Inflationary pressures also cause or contribute to, or are the result of, increases in interest rates, which would reduce the fair value of our investment portfolio.

We are a holding company and rely on our insurance company subsidiaries for cash flow; we may not be able to receive dividends from our subsidiaries in needed amounts and may be required to provide capital to support their operations.

We are a holding company for a diversified group of insurance companies, and our principal assets are the shares of capital stock of these subsidiaries. Our ability to make required interest payments on our debt, as well as our ability to pay operating expenses and pay dividends to shareholders, depends upon the receipt of sufficient funds from our subsidiaries. The payment of dividends by our insurance company subsidiaries is subject to regulatory restrictions and will depend on the surplus and future earnings of these subsidiaries, as well as these regulatory restrictions. We are required to notify insurance regulators prior to paying any dividends from our insurance subsidiaries, and pre-approval is required with respect to “extraordinary dividends.”

Because of the regulatory limitations on the payment of dividends from our insurance company subsidiaries, we may not always be able to receive dividends from these subsidiaries at times and in amounts necessary to meet our debt and other obligations, or to pay dividends to our shareholders. The inability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends to us in an amount sufficient to meet our debt interest and funding obligations would have a material adverse effect on us. These regulatory dividend restrictions also impede our ability to transfer cash and other capital resources among our subsidiaries. Similarly, our insurance subsidiaries may require capital from the holding company to support their operations.

Our dependence on our insurance subsidiaries for cash flow, and their potential need for capital support, exposes us to the risk of changes in their ability to generate sufficient cash inflows from new or existing customers or from increased cash outflows. Cash outflows may result from claims activity, expense payments or investment losses. Because of the nature of our business, claims activity can arise suddenly and in amounts which could outstrip our capital or liquidity resources. Reductions in cash flow or capital demands from our subsidiaries could have a material adverse effect on our business and results of operations.

We may require additional capital or credit in the future, which may not be available or only available on unfavorable terms.

We monitor our capital adequacy on a regular basis. Our future capital and liquidity requirements depend on many factors, including our premiums written, loss reserves and claim payments, investment portfolio composition and risk exposures, the availability of letters and lines of credit, as well as regulatory and rating agency capital requirements. In addition, our capital strength can affect our ratings, and therefore is important to our ability to underwrite business. The quality of our claims paying and financial strength ratings are evaluated by independent rating agencies. Such ratings affect our ability to write quality business, our borrowing expenses and our ability to raise capital.

To the extent that our existing capital is insufficient or unavailable to fund our future operating requirements and/or cover claim losses, we may need to raise additional funds through financings or limit our growth. Any equity or debt financing, if available, may be on terms that are unfavorable to us. In the case of equity financings, dilution to our shareholders could result and, in any case, such securities may have rights, preferences, and privileges that are senior to our common stock. If we are not able to obtain additional capital as necessary, our business, results of operations and financial condition could be adversely affected.

Errors or omissions in connection with the administration of any of our products may cause our business and profitability to be negatively impacted.

We are responsible to our policyholders for administering their policies, premiums and claims and ensuring that appropriate records are maintained that reflect their transactions. We are subject to risks that errors or omissions of information occurred with respect to the administration of our products. We are also subject to misconduct and fraud on the part of our employees and agents. As a result, we are subject to risks of liabilities associated with “bad faith,” unfair claims practices, unfair trade practices or similar allegations. Such risks may stem from allegations of agents, vendors, policyholders, claimants, reinsurers, regulators, states’ attorneys general, or others. We may incur charges associated with any errors and omissions previously made or that are made in future periods. These charges may result from our obligation to policyholders to correct any errors or omissions or refund premiums, non-compliance with regulatory requirements, from fines imposed by regulatory authorities, or from other items, which may affect our financial position or results of operations.

We are subject to all of the foregoing risks with respect to the third-party asset management operations of Opus. Opus, which had $3.1 billion of unaffiliated assets under management as of December 31, 2018, is subject to federal (SEC) and other regulatory requirements and is subject to operational, technological, information security, investment and other risks, as well as claims by third parties whose funds it manages.

Changes in current accounting practices and future pronouncements may materially impact our reported financial results.

Unanticipated developments in accounting practices may require us to incur considerable additional expenses to comply with such developments, particularly if we are required to prepare information relating to prior periods for comparative purposes or to apply the new requirements retroactively. Such developments may also significantly impact the presentation of such financial statements and may require restatements. The impact of changes in current accounting practices and future pronouncements cannot be predicted, but they may affect the calculation of net income, net equity and other relevant financial statement line items.

Failure to maintain effective internal control over financial reporting could have a material adverse effect on our business and stock price.

As a publicly traded company, we are required to maintain effective internal control over financial reporting. While management has certified that our internal control over financial reporting was effective as of December 31, 2018, because internal control over financial reporting is complex, we cannot assure you that our internal control over financial reporting will be effective in the future. Any failure to design, implement or maintain required controls, gaps in internal controls, or difficulties encountered in their operation, could adversely affect our results or cause us to fail to meet our reporting obligations. If we are not able to maintain or document effective internal control over financial reporting, our independent, registered public accounting firm would be unable to certify the effectiveness of our internal control over financial reporting or opine that our financial statements fairly present, in all material respects, our financial position, results of operations and cash flows in conformity with GAAP. Significant internal control deficiencies may also prevent us from reporting our financial information on a timely basis or cause us to restate previously issued financial information, and thereby subject us to litigation and adverse regulatory consequences, including fines and other penalties, and could result in a breach of the covenants under our credit agreements. Investor confidence in us and the reliability of our financial statements could erode, resulting in a decline in our stock price.

We are subject to the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and similar worldwide anti-bribery laws, that impose restrictions and may carry substantial penalties. Violations of these laws or allegations of such violations could cause a material adverse effect on our business, financial position and results of operations.

The U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and anti-bribery laws in other jurisdictions, generally prohibit companies and their intermediaries from making improper payments for the purpose of obtaining or retaining business or other commercial advantage. Our policies mandate compliance with these anti-bribery laws that often carry substantial penalties. We cannot assure you that our internal control policies and procedures will always protect us from reckless or other inappropriate acts committed by our affiliates, employees, or agents. Violations of these laws, or allegations of such violations, could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial position and results of operations.

We own our headquarters, located at 440 Lincoln Street, Worcester, Massachusetts, with approximately 803,000 square feet.

We also own office space located in a three-building complex located at 808 North Highlander Way, Howell, Michigan, with approximately 140,000 square feet, where various business operations are conducted. Certain of our properties have been leased to unrelated third parties or are available for lease.

We also lease offices throughout the United States for branch sales, underwriting and claims processing functions, and the operations of acquired subsidiaries.

We believe that our facilities are adequate for our present needs in all material respects.

Reference is made to the litigation matter captioned “Durand Litigation” included in Note 18 - “Commitments and Contingencies – Legal Proceedings” in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.

ITEM 5–MARKET FOR REGISTRANT’S COMMON EQUITY, RELATED STOCKHOLDER MATTERS AND ISSUER PURCHASES OF EQUITY SECURITIES

Our common stock is traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol “THG”. On February 15, 2019, we had approximately 16,781 shareholders of record and 40,573,500 shares of common stock outstanding. On the same date, the trading price of our common stock was $117.63 per share.

On December 30, 2018, the Board of Directors declared a special dividend of $4.75 per outstanding share following completion of the sale of the Chaucer business. See Note 2 – “Dispositions of Businesses” in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.

We currently expect that quarterly cash dividends, comparable to what we have paid in the past of $0.54 per share in the first three quarters of 2018 and $0.60 per share in the fourth quarter of 2018, will continue to be paid in the future; however, the payment of future quarterly or special dividends on our common stock will be determined by the Board of Directors from time to time based upon cash available at our holding company, our results of operations and financial condition and such other factors as the Board of Directors considers relevant.

Dividends to shareholders may be funded from dividends paid to us from our subsidiaries. Dividends from insurance subsidiaries are subject to restrictions imposed by state insurance laws and regulations. See “Liquidity and Capital Resources” in Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Note 13 – “Dividend Restrictions” in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.

In 2005, the Board of Directors first authorized a stock repurchase program which, including subsequent amendments to increase the number of shares subject to repurchase, provided for aggregate repurchases of up to $900 million. This program was terminated on December 30, 2018 in conjunction with the establishment of the new program discussed below. Prior to termination, total repurchases under this program were 14.9 million shares at a cost of $811.2 million. The prior share repurchase authorization had a balance of approximately $89 million when terminated.

On December 30, 2018, the Board of Directors authorized a new stock repurchase program which provides for aggregate repurchases of up to $600 million. Under the new repurchase authorization, we may repurchase our common stock from time to time, in amounts, at prices, and at times we deem appropriate, subject to market conditions and other considerations. Our repurchases may be executed using open market purchases, privately negotiated transactions, accelerated repurchase programs or other transactions. We are not required to purchase any specific number of shares or to make purchases by any certain date under this program. On January 2, 2019, pursuant to the terms of an accelerated share repurchase agreement, we paid $250.0 million and received an initial delivery of approximately 1.8 million shares of our common stock, which is approximately 80% of the total number of shares expected to be repurchased under this agreement.

YEARS ENDED DECEMBER 31	2018			2017			2016			2015		2014
(in millions, except per share data)
Statements of Income
Revenues
Premiums	$	4,254.4		$	3,980.4		$	3,789.5		$	3,653.6	$	3,488.5
Net investment income		267.4			243.9			231.6			231.1		224.3
Net realized investment gains (losses)		(50.7	)		21.1			10.2			19.2		29.3
Fees and other income		23.2			22.5			22.6			23.6		23.2
Total revenues		4,494.3			4,267.9			4,053.9			3,927.5		3,765.3
Losses and Expenses
Losses and loss adjustment expenses		2,724.6			2,579.6			2,546.0			2,367.9		2,294.3
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs		891.8			840.7			803.6			778.0		748.5
Loss on repayment of debt		28.2			—			88.3			24.1		0.1
Other operating expenses		567.2			554.7			550.0			540.8		542.5
Total losses and expenses		4,211.8			3,975.0			3,987.9			3,710.8		3,585.4
Income from continuing operations before income taxes		282.5			292.9			66.0			216.7		179.9
Income tax expense (benefit)		43.5			76.8			(1.0	)		59.3		40.9
Income from continuing operations, net of taxes		239.0			216.1			67.0			157.4		139.0
Discontinued Operations:
Gain from sale of Chaucer business, net of taxes		131.9			—			—			—		—
Income (loss) from Chaucer business, net of taxes		20.0			(13.1	)		89.1			173.4		143.3
Income (loss) from discontinued life business, net of taxes		0.1			(16.8	)		(1.0	)		0.7		(0.3	)
Net income	$	391.0		$	186.2		$	155.1		$	331.5	$	282.0
Net income per common share (diluted)	$	9.09		$	4.33		$	3.59		$	7.40	$	6.28
Dividends declared per common share	$	6.97		$	2.04		$	1.88		$	1.69	$	1.52

Title of each class		Name of each exchange on which registered
Common Stock, $.01 par value		New York Stock Exchange
7 5/8% Senior Debentures due 2025		New York Stock Exchange
6.35% Subordinated Debentures due 2053		New York Stock Exchange

Item	Description	Page

Part I

1	Business	3

1A.	Risk Factors	17

1B.	Unresolved Staff Comments	33

2	Properties	33

3	Legal Proceedings	33

4	Mine Safety Disclosures	33

Part II

5	Market for Registrant's Common Equity, Related Stockholder Matters and Issuer Purchases of Equity Securities	34

6	Selected Financial Data	36

7	Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations	37

7A.	Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk	75

8	Financial Statements and Supplementary Data	76

9	Changes in and Disagreements With Accountants on Accounting and Financial Disclosure	135

9A.	Controls and Procedures	135

9B.	Other Information	135

Part III

10	Directors, Executive Officers and Corporate Governance	136

11	Executive Compensation	138

12	Security Ownership of Certain Beneficial Owners and Management and Related Stockholder Matters	139

13	Certain Relationships and Related Transactions, and Director Independence	139

14	Principal Accounting Fees and Services	139

Part IV

15	Exhibits, Financial Statement Schedules	140

	Exhibits Index	141

16	Form 10-K Summary	145

	Signatures	146

DECEMBER 31	2018			2017			2016
(in millions)
Statutory reserve for losses and LAE	$	3,935.6		$	3,717.8		$	3,402.1
GAAP adjustments:
Reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses of our insurance subsidiaries		1,472.6			1,455.0			1,349.2
Statutory reserves for discontinued accident and health business		(112.4	)		(122.4	)		(97.8	)
Other		8.3			8.1			6.5
GAAP reserve for losses and LAE	$	5,304.1		$	5,058.5		$	4,660.0

PERIOD	Total Number of Shares Purchased		Average Price Paid per Share		Total Number of Shares Purchased as Part of Publicly Announced Plans or Programs		Approximate Dollar Value of Shares That May Yet be Purchased Under the Plans or Programs (in millions) ⁽²⁾
October 1 - 31, 2018⁽¹⁾		86,140	$	116.52		85,822	$	92
November 1 - 30, 2018 ⁽¹⁾		14,899		110.69		14,874		91
December 1 - 31, 2018 ⁽¹⁾		16,730		109.56		16,700		600
Total		117,769	$	114.79		117,396	$	600

Large accelerated filer	☒	Accelerated filer	☐
Non-accelerated filer	☐	Smaller reporting company	☐
		Emerging growth company	☐