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Investment Securities
6 Months Ended
Jun. 30, 2011
Investment Securities  
Investment Securities

Note 3.     Investment Securities

The following table presents the amortized cost and fair value, and associated unrealized gains and losses, of investment securities as of the dates indicated:

 

 

Aggregate investment securities carried at $44.56 billion and $44.81 billion at June 30, 2011 and December 31, 2010, respectively, were designated as pledged for public and trust deposits, short-term borrowings and for other purposes as provided by law.

The following table presents contractual maturities of debt investment securities as of June 30, 2011:

 

                                 
(In millions)    Under 1
Year
     1 to 5
Years
     6 to 10
Years
     Over 10
Years
 

Available for sale:

                                   

U.S. Treasury and federal agencies:

                                   

Direct obligations

   $ 3,167       $ 2,093       $ 1,533       $ 605   

Mortgage-backed securities

     4         1,192         10,415         13,924   

Asset-backed securities:

                                   

Student loans

     119         4,055         7,884         3,862   

Credit cards

     1,810         6,229         1,829           

Sub-prime

     989         202         12         442   

Other

     139         664         361         149   
                                     

Total asset-backed securities

     3,057         11,150         10,086         4,453   
                                     

Non-U.S. debt securities:

                                   

Mortgage-backed securities

     310         2,089         239         6,742   

Asset-backed securities

     68         2,003         3,487         543   

Government securities

     3,545                           

Other

     53         938         128         1   
                                     

Total non-U.S. debt securities

     3,976         5,030         3,854         7,286   
                                     

State and political subdivisions

     457         2,634         2,632         1,024   

Collateralized mortgage obligations

     76         1,206         494         878   

Other U.S. debt securities

     231         1,844         687         42   
                                     

Total

   $ 10,968       $ 25,149       $ 29,701       $ 28,212   
                                     

Held to maturity:

                                   

U.S. Treasury and federal agencies:

                                   

Mortgage-backed securities

   $ 5       $ 75       $ 80       $ 172   

Asset-backed securities

     7                         38   

Non-U.S. debt securities:

                                   

Mortgage-backed securities

     1,253         884                 3,805   

Asset-backed securities

             45         44           

Other

             454         306         22   
                                     

Total non-U.S. debt securities

     1,253         1,383         350         3,827   
                                     

State and political subdivisions

     57         61                 1   

Collateralized mortgage obligations

     415         1,830         369         1,208   
                                     

Total

   $ 1,737       $ 3,349       $ 799       $ 5,246   
                                     

The maturities of asset-backed securities, mortgage-backed securities and collateralized mortgage obligations are based on expected principal payments.

 

Impairment

We conduct periodic reviews of individual securities to assess whether other-than-temporary impairment exists. Impairment exists when the current fair value of an individual security is below its amortized cost basis. Where the decline in the security's fair value is deemed to be other than temporary, the loss is recorded in our consolidated statement of income. For debt securities available for sale and held to maturity, other-than-temporary impairment is recorded in our consolidated statement of income when management intends to sell (or may be required to sell) the securities before they recover in value, or when management expects the present value of cash flows expected to be collected from the securities to be less than the amortized cost of the impaired security (a credit loss).

Our review of impaired securities generally includes:

 

   

the identification and evaluation of securities that have indications of possible other-than-temporary impairment, such as issuer-specific concerns, including deteriorating financial condition or bankruptcy;

 

   

the analysis of expected future cash flows of securities, based on quantitative and qualitative factors;

 

   

the analysis of the collectability of those future cash flows, including information about past events, current conditions and reasonable and supportable forecasts;

 

   

the analysis of individual impaired securities, including consideration of the length of time the security has been in an unrealized loss position, the anticipated recovery period, and the magnitude of the overall price decline;

 

   

discussion and evaluation of factors or triggers that could cause individual securities to be deemed other-than-temporarily impaired and those that would not support other-than-temporary impairment; and

 

   

documentation of the results of these analyses.

Factors considered in determining whether impairment is other than temporary include:

 

   

the length of time the security has been impaired;

 

   

the severity of the impairment;

 

   

the cause of the impairment and the financial condition and near-term prospects of the issuer;

 

   

activity in the market of the issuer which may indicate adverse credit conditions; and

 

   

our intention not to sell, and the likelihood that we will not be required to sell, the security for a period of time sufficient to allow for recovery in value.

The substantial majority of our investment securities portfolio is composed of debt securities. A critical component of the evaluation for other-than-temporary impairment of our debt securities is the identification of credit-impaired securities for which management does not expect to receive cash flows sufficient to recover the entire amortized cost basis of the security.

Debt securities that are not deemed to be credit-impaired are subject to additional management analysis to assess whether management intends to sell, or, more likely than not, would not be required to sell, the security before the expected recovery to its amortized cost basis.

 

The following describes our process for identifying credit impairment in security types with the most significant unrealized losses as of June 30, 2011.

Mortgage- and Asset-Backed Securities

For U.S. mortgage-backed securities deemed most at risk, other-than-temporary impairment related to credit is assessed using cash flow models, tailored for each security, that estimate the future cash flows from the underlying mortgages, using the security-specific collateral and transaction structure. Estimates of future cash flows are subject to management judgment. The future cash flows and performance of our portfolio of U.S. mortgage-backed securities are a function of a number of factors, including, but not limited to, the condition of the U.S. economy, the condition of the U.S. residential mortgage markets, and the level of loan defaults, prepayments and loss severities. Management's estimates of future losses for each security also consider the underwriting and historical performance of our specific securities, the underlying collateral type, vintage, borrower profile, third-party guarantees, current levels of subordination, geography and other factors.

During the second quarter of 2011, management refined its methodology to evaluate impairment in order to incorporate more detailed information with respect to loan-level performance information. Accordingly, the range of estimates pertaining to each collateral type reflects the unique characteristics of the underlying loans, such as payment options and collateral geography, among other factors. The parameters used in the evaluation of 2006- and 2007-vintage U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities were as follows:

 

For securities that relate to these vintages, other-than-temporary impairment has been recorded on certain assets when both fair value was below carrying value and a credit loss existed. During the three and six months ended June 30, 2011, we recorded credit-related other-than-temporary impairment on securities in these vintages of $6 million and $8 million, respectively, with $1 million and $2 million, respectively, related to sub-prime first-lien mortgages and $2 million and $3 million, respectively, related to "Alt-A" mortgages and $3 million for both periods related to non-agency prime mortgages During the three and six months ended June 30, 2010, we recorded credit-related other-than-temporary impairment on securities in these vintages of $33 million and $99 million, respectively, with $19 million and $20 million, respectively, related to sub-prime first-lien mortgages, $4 million and $24 million, respectively, related to "Alt-A" mortgages and $10 million and $55 million, respectively, related to non-agency prime mortgages.

Asset-backed securities collateralized by student loans are primarily composed of securities collateralized by Federal Family Education Loan Program, or FFELP, loans. FFELP loans benefit from a federal government guarantee of at least 97%, with additional credit support provided in the form of overcollateralization, subordination and excess spread, which collectively total in excess of 100% of principal and interest. Accordingly, FFELP loan-backed securities are not exposed to traditional consumer credit risk. Other risk factors are considered in our evaluation of other-than-temporary impairment.

Non-U.S. mortgage-backed securities are composed primarily of U.K., Dutch, Australian and other European securities collateralized by residential mortgages. Our evaluation of impairment considers the location of the underlying collateral, collateral enhancement and structural features, expected credit losses under stressed conditions and the outlook with respect to housing prices for the country in which the collateral resides. Where appropriate, any potential loss after consideration of the above-referenced factors is further evaluated to determine whether any other-than-temporary impairment exists.

In assessing other-than-temporary impairment, we may from time to time place reliance on support from third-party financial guarantors for certain asset-backed and municipal (state and political subdivisions) securities. Factors taken into consideration when determining the level of support include the guarantor's credit rating and management's assessment of the guarantor's financial condition. For those guarantors management deems to be under financial duress, we assume an immediate default by those guarantors, with a modest recovery of claimed amounts (up to 20%). In addition, for various forms of collateralized securities, management considers the liquidation value of the underlying collateral based on expected housing prices and other relevant factors.

The assumptions presented above are used by management to identify those securities which are subject to further analysis of potential credit losses. Additional analyses are performed using more severe assumptions to further evaluate sensitivity of losses relative to the above factors. However, since the assumptions are based on the unique characteristics of each security, management uses a range of point estimates for prepayment speeds and housing prices that reflect the collateral profile of the securities within each asset class. In addition, in measuring expected credit losses, the individual characteristics of each security are examined to determine whether any additional factors would increase or mitigate the expected loss. Once losses are determined, the timing of the loss will also affect the ultimate other-than-temporary impairment, since the loss is ultimately subject to a discount commensurate with the purchase yield of the security. Primarily as a result of rising delinquencies and management's continued expectation of declining housing prices, we recorded credit-related other-than-temporary impairment of $35 million and $46 million during the three and six months ended June 30, 2011, respectively.

 

After a review of the investment portfolio, taking into consideration current economic conditions, adverse situations that might affect our ability to fully collect principal and interest, the timing of future payments, the credit quality and performance of the collateral underlying asset-backed securities and other relevant factors, and excluding the securities for which other-than-temporary impairment was recorded during the six months ended June 30, 2011, management considers the aggregate decline in fair value of the remaining securities and the resulting gross pre-tax unrealized losses of $1.48 billion related to 1,649 securities as of June 30, 2011 to be temporary and not the result of any material changes in the credit characteristics of the securities. The following tables present the aggregate fair values of investment securities with a continuous unrealized loss position for less than 12 months and those that have been in a continuous unrealized loss position for longer than 12 months, as of the dates indicated:

 

 

The following table presents realized gains and losses related to investment securities for the periods indicated:

 

                                 
     Three Months Ended
June 30,
    Six Months Ended
June 30,
 
(In millions)    2011     2010     2011     2010  

Gross realized gains from sales of available-for-sale securities

   $ 62     $ 5      $ 69     $ 203   

Gross realized losses from sales of available-for-sale securities

            (2     (3     (8

Gross losses from other-than-temporary impairment

     (44     (240     (79     (480

Losses not related to credit

     9        187        33        330   
    

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net impairment losses

     (35     (53     (46     (150
    

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Gains (Losses) related to investment securities, net

   $ 27      $ (50   $ 20      $ 45   
    

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Impairment associated with expected credit losses

   $ (24   $ (41   $ (29   $ (130

Impairment associated with management's intent to sell the impaired securities prior to their recovery in value

     (8            (8       

Impairment associated with adverse changes in timing of expected future cash flows

     (3     (12     (9     (20
    

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Net impairment losses

   $ (35   $ (53   $ (46   $ (150
    

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

The following table presents activity with respect to credit-related losses recognized in our consolidated statement of income associated with securities considered other-than-temporarily impaired for the six months ended June 30:

 

                 
(In millions)    2011     2010  

Beginning balance

   $ 63      $ 175   

Plus expected credit-related losses for which other-than-temporary impairment was not previously recognized

     7        72   

Plus expected credit-related losses for which other-than-temporary impairment was previously recognized

     31        78   

Less losses realized for securities sold

     (1     (1

Less losses related to securities intended or required to be sold

     (2       
    

 

 

   

 

 

 

Ending balance

   $ 98      $ 324   
    

 

 

   

 

 

 

The impairment losses were largely related to non-agency securities collateralized by mortgages, which management concluded had experienced credit losses based on the present value of the securities' expected future cash flows.