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Loans and Allowance for Credit Losses
 3 Months Ended
Jan. 31, 2025
Text Block [Abstract]  
Loans and Allowance for Credit Losses
Note 3: Loans and Allowance for Credit Losses
Allowance for Credit Losses
The ACL recorded in our Consolidated Balance Sheet is maintained at a level we consider adequate to absorb credit-related losses on our loans and other credit instruments. The ACL amounted to $5,438 million as at January 31, 2025 ($4,936 million as at October 31, 2024) of which $4,792 million ($4,356 million as at October 31,
 
2024) was recorded in loans and $646 million ($580 million as at October 31, 2024) was recorded in other liabilities in our Consolidated Balance Sheet.
Changes in gross balances, including originations, maturities, sales, write-offs and repayments in the normal course of operations, impact the ACL.
The following tables show the continuity in the loss allowance by product type for the three months ended January 31, 2025 and January 31, 2024. Transfers represent the amount of ECL that moved between stages during the period, for example, moving from a
12-month
(Stage 1) to lifetime (Stage 2) ECL measurement basis. Net remeasurements represent the ECL impact due to transfers between stages, as well as changes in economic forecasts and credit quality. Model changes include new calculation models or methodologies.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(Canadian $ in millions)
            
For the three months ended
  
January 31, 2025
    
January 31, 2024
  
   
    Stage 1
    
   Stage 2
    
 Stage 3 
(1)
    
    Total
    
    Stage 1
    
   Stage 2
    
 Stage 3 (1)
    
    Total
  
Loans: Residential mortgages
                                                                
Balance as at beginning of period
  
$
56
    
$
186
    
$
19
    
$
261
    
$
73
    
$
151
    
$
10
    
$
234
  
Transfer to Stage 1
    
45
      
(44
) 
    
(1
) 
    
-
      
23
      
(23
) 
    
-
      
-
  
Transfer to Stage 2
    
(2
) 
    
7
      
(5
) 
    
-
      
(2
) 
    
5
      
(3
) 
    
-
  
Transfer to Stage 3
    
-
      
(8
) 
    
8
      
-
      
-
      
(6
) 
    
6
      
-
  
Net remeasurement of loss allowance
    
(42
) 
    
51
      
13
      
22
      
(33
) 
    
70
      
4
      
41
  
Loan originations
    
5
      
-
      
-
      
5
      
8
      
-
      
-
      
8
  
Derecognitions and maturities
    
(1
) 
    
(4
) 
    
-
      
(5
) 
    
(1
) 
    
(3
) 
    
-
      
(4
) 
Model changes
    
-
      
-
      
-
      
-
      
(1
) 
    
(5
) 
    
-
      
(6
) 
Total PCL (2)
    
5
      
2
      
15
      
22
      
(6
) 
    
38
      
7
      
39
  
Write-offs (3)
    
-
      
-
      
(1
) 
    
(1
) 
    
-
      
-
      
(2
) 
    
(2
) 
Recoveries of previous write-offs
    
-
      
-
      
1
      
1
      
-
      
-
      
2
      
2
  
Foreign exchange and other
    
1
      
3
      
(12
) 
    
(8
) 
    
(1
) 
    
(2
) 
    
(5
) 
    
(8
) 
Balance as at end of period
  
$
62
    
$
191
    
$
22
    
$
275
    
$
66
    
$
187
    
$
12
    
$
265
  
Loans: Consumer instalment and other personal
                                                                
Balance as at beginning of period
  
$
197
    
$
471
    
$
175
    
$
843
    
$
220
    
$
434
    
$
152
    
$
806
  
Transfer to Stage 1
    
73
      
(67
) 
    
(6
) 
    
-
      
59
      
(55
) 
    
(4
) 
    
-
  
Transfer to Stage 2
    
(13
) 
    
25
      
(12
) 
    
-
      
(11
) 
    
22
      
(11
) 
    
-
  
Transfer to Stage 3
    
(2
) 
    
(42
) 
    
44
      
-
      
(2
) 
    
(29
) 
    
31
      
-
  
Net remeasurement of loss allowance
    
(68
) 
    
131
      
138
      
201
      
(65
) 
    
31
      
157
      
123
  
Loan originations
    
9
      
-
      
-
      
9
      
24
      
-
      
-
      
24
  
Derecognitions and maturities
    
(5
) 
    
(9
) 
    
-
      
(14
) 
    
(4
) 
    
(8
) 
    
(11
) 
    
(23
) 
Model changes
    
-
      
-
      
-
      
-
      
15
      
46
      
-
      
61
  
Total PCL (2)
    
(6
) 
    
38
      
164
      
196
      
16
      
7
      
162
      
185
  
Write-offs (3)
    
-
      
-
      
(170
) 
    
(170
) 
    
-
      
-
      
(159
) 
    
(159
) 
Recoveries of previous write-offs
    
-
      
-
      
28
      
28
      
-
      
-
      
25
      
25
  
Foreign exchange and other
    
3
      
5
      
(14
) 
    
(6
) 
    
(92
) 
    
(5
) 
    
(9
) 
    
(106
) 
Balance as at end of period
  
$
194
    
$
514
    
$
183
    
$
891
    
$
144
    
$
436
    
$
171
    
$
751
  
Loans: Credit cards
                                                                
Balance as at beginning of period
  
$
233
    
$
472
    
$
-
    
$
705
    
$
188
    
$
308
    
$
-
    
$
496
  
Transfer to Stage 1
    
66
      
(66
) 
    
-
      
-
      
50
      
(50
) 
    
-
      
-
  
Transfer to Stage 2
    
(22
) 
    
22
      
-
      
-
      
(13
) 
    
13
      
-
      
-
  
Transfer to Stage 3
    
(2
) 
    
(107
) 
    
109
      
-
      
(1
) 
    
(48
) 
    
49
      
-
  
Net remeasurement of loss allowance
    
(60
) 
    
175
      
79
      
194
      
(75
) 
    
122
      
66
      
113
  
Loan originations
    
15
      
-
      
-
      
15
      
17
      
-
      
-
      
17
  
Derecognitions and maturities
    
(2
) 
    
(9
) 
    
-
      
(11
) 
    
(2
) 
    
(8
) 
    
-
      
(10
) 
Model changes
    
-
      
-
      
-
      
-
      
4
      
9
      
-
      
13
  
Total PCL (2)
    
(5
) 
    
15
      
188
      
198
      
(20
) 
    
38
      
115
      
133
  
Write-offs (3)
    
-
      
-
      
(223
) 
    
(223
) 
    
-
      
-
      
(152
) 
    
(152
) 
Recoveries of previous write-offs
    
-
      
-
      
53
      
53
      
-
      
-
      
48
      
48
  
Foreign exchange and other
    
1
      
5
      
(18
) 
    
(12
) 
    
(1
) 
    
(3
) 
    
(11
) 
    
(15
) 
Balance as at end of period
  
$
229
    
$
492
    
$
-
    
$
721
    
$
167
    
$
343
    
$
-
    
$
510
  
Loans: Business and government
                                                                
Balance as at beginning of period
  
$
892
    
$
1,698
    
$
537
    
$
3,127
    
$
 1,043
    
$
1,155
    
$
533
    
$
 2,731
  
Transfer to Stage 1
    
159
      
(143
) 
    
(16
) 
    
-
      
184
      
(182
) 
    
(2
) 
    
-
  
Transfer to Stage 2
    
(111
) 
    
149
      
(38
) 
    
-
      
(119
) 
    
122
      
(3
) 
    
-
  
Transfer to Stage 3
    
(2
) 
    
(138
) 
    
140
      
-
      
(2
) 
    
(63
) 
    
65
      
-
  
Net remeasurement of loss allowance
    
(147
) 
    
388
      
406
      
647
      
(220
) 
    
295
      
140
      
215
  
Loan originations
    
78
      
-
      
-
      
78
      
83
      
8
      
-
      
91
  
Derecognitions and maturities
    
(38
) 
    
(85
) 
    
-
      
(123
) 
    
(50
) 
    
(92
) 
    
(11
) 
    
(153
) 
Model changes
    
-
      
-
      
-
      
-
      
53
      
57
      
-
      
110
  
Total PCL (2)
    
(61
) 
    
171
      
492
      
602
      
(71
) 
    
145
      
189
      
263
  
Write-offs (3)
    
-
      
-
      
(253
) 
    
(253
) 
    
-
      
-
      
(220
) 
    
(220
) 
Recoveries of previous write-offs
    
-
      
-
      
61
      
61
      
-
      
-
      
75
      
75
  
Foreign exchange and other
    
29
      
69
      
(84
) 
    
14
      
(59
) 
    
(31
) 
    
(57
) 
    
(147
) 
Balance as at end of period
  
$
860
    
$
1,938
    
$
 753
    
$
 3,551
    
$
913
    
$
1,269
    
$
520
    
$
2,702
  
Total as at end of period
  
$
1,345
    
$
3,135
    
$
958
    
$
5,438
    
$
1,290
    
$
2,235
    
$
703
    
$
4,228
  
Comprising: Loans
  
$
  1,093
    
$
  2,825
    
$
874
    
$
4,792
    
$
1,062
    
$
2,011
    
$
683
    
$
3,756
  
Other credit instruments (4)
    
252
      
310
      
84
      
646
      
228
      
   224
      
 20
      
   472
  
 
 (1)
Includes changes in the allowance for purchased credit impaired (PCI) loans.
 (2)
Excludes PCL on other assets of $(7) million for the three months ended January 31, 2025 ($7 million for the three months ended January 31, 2024).
 (3)
Generally, we continue to seek recovery on amounts that were written off during the year, unless the loan is sold, we no longer have the right to collect or we have exhausted all reasonable efforts to collect.
 (4)
Other credit instruments, including
off-balance
sheet items, are recorded in other liabilities in our Consolidated Balance Sheet.
Credit Risk Exposure
The following table sets out our credit risk exposure for all loans carried at amortized cost, FVOCI or FVTPL as at January 31, 2025 and October 31, 2024. Stage 1 represents performing loans carried with up to a
12-month
ECL, Stage 2 represents performing loans carried with a lifetime ECL, and Stage 3 represents loans with a lifetime ECL that are credit impaired.
 
 
(Canadian $ in millions)
   
January 31, 2025
      October 31, 2024  
     
 Stage 1 
(1)		     
   Stage 2
     
 Stage 3 
(2)		     
    Total
       Stage 1 (1)        Stage 2      Stage 3 (2)         Total  
Loans: Residential mortgages
                     
Exceptionally low
   
$
1
     
$
-
     
$
-
     
$
1
      $ 1     $ -     $ -     $ 1  
Very low
     
92,029
       
2,225
       
-
       
94,254
        86,730       5,631       -       92,361  
Low
     
55,282
       
12,123
       
-
       
67,405
        52,111       15,080       -       67,191  
Medium
     
7,915
       
5,206
       
-
       
13,121
        7,402       5,329       -       12,731  
High
     
293
       
2,739
       
-
       
3,032
        268       2,622       -       2,890  
Not rated (3)
     
14,699
       
  1,031
       
-
       
  15,730
        14,207       1,042       -       15,249  
Impaired
     
-
       
-
       
750
       
750
        -       -       657       657  
Gross residential mortgages
     
170,219
       
23,324
       
750
       
194,293
        160,719       29,704       657       191,080  
ACL
     
62
       
190
       
12
       
264
        56       185       10       251  
Carrying amount
     
170,157
       
23,134
       
738
       
194,029
        160,663       29,519       647       190,829  
Loans: Consumer instalment and other personal
                     
Exceptionally low
     
10,364
       
37
       
-
       
10,401
        9,162       145       -       9,307  
Very low
     
20,417
       
341
       
-
       
20,758
        20,466       903       -       21,369  
Low
     
25,835
       
3,677
       
-
       
29,512
        26,125        4,575        -       30,700  
Medium
     
7,589
       
5,542
       
-
       
13,131
        7,405       5,526       -       12,931  
High
     
736
       
2,135
       
-
       
2,871
        789       2,017       -       2,806  
Not rated (3)
     
15,086
       
675
       
-
       
15,761
        14,522       475       -       14,997  
Impaired
     
-
       
-
       
622
       
622
        -       -       577       577  
Gross consumer instalment and other personal
     
80,027
       
12,407
       
622
       
93,056
        78,469       13,641       577        92,687   
ACL
     
180
       
488
       
176
       
844
        183       447       168       798  
Carrying amount
     
79,847
       
11,919
       
446
       
92,212
        78,286       13,194       409       91,889  
Loans: Credit cards
(4)
                     
Exceptionally low
     
1,516
       
-
       
-
       
1,516
        1,660       -       -       1,660  
Very low
     
2,149
       
1
       
-
       
2,150
        2,166       1       -       2,167  
Low
     
2,134
       
46
       
-
       
2,180
        2,110       60       -       2,170  
Medium
     
4,542
       
825
       
-
       
5,367
        4,544       824       -       5,368  
High
     
783
       
960
       
-
       
1,743
        746       922       -       1,668  
Not rated (3)
     
375
       
189
       
-
       
564
        430       149       -       579  
Impaired
     
-
       
-
       
-
       
-
        -       -       -       -  
Gross credit cards
     
11,499
       
2,021
       
-
       
13,520
        11,656       1,956       -       13,612  
ACL
     
151
       
427
       
-
       
578
        161       421       -       582  
Carrying amount
     
11,348
       
1,594
       
-
       
12,942
        11,495       1,535       -       13,030  
Loans: Business and government
(5)
                     
Acceptable
                     
Investment grade
     
192,761
       
3,231
       
-
       
195,992
        191,742       3,437       -       195,179  
Sub-investment
grade
     
  146,685
       
  20,657
       
-
       
167,342
        147,713       15,078       -       162,791  
Watchlist
     
207
       
24,035
       
-
       
24,242
        238       22,535       -       22,773  
Impaired
     
-
       
-
       
  5,582
       
5,582
        -       -       4,609       4,609  
Gross business and government
     
339,653
       
47,923
       
5,582
       
393,158
        339,693       41,050       4,609       385,352  
ACL
     
700
       
1,720
       
686
       
3,106
        743       1,507       475       2,725  
Carrying amount
     
338,953
       
46,203
       
4,896
       
390,052
        338,950       39,543       4,134       382,627  
Total gross loans and acceptances
     
601,398
       
85,675
       
6,954
       
694,027
        590,537       86,351       5,843       682,731  
Total net loans and acceptances
     
600,305
       
82,850
       
6,080
       
689,235
        589,394       83,791       5,190       678,375  
Commitments and financial guarantee contracts
                     
Acceptable
                     
Investment grade
     
205,177
       
765
       
-
       
205,942
        198,132       787       -       198,919  
Sub-investment
grade
     
67,932
       
9,345
       
-
       
77,277
        68,177       6,647       -       74,824  
Watchlist
     
13
       
8,636
       
-
       
8,649
        59       8,765       -       8,824  
Impaired
     
-
       
-
       
1,863
       
1,863
        -       -       1,373       1,373  
Gross commitments and financial guarantee contracts
     
273,122
18,746
      
1,863
      
293,731
        266,368       16,199       1,373       283,940  
ACL
     
252
       
310
       
84
       
646
        235       267       78       580  
Carrying amount (6) (7)
   
$
272,870
     
$
18,436
     
$
1,779
     
$
293,085
      $  266,133     $  15,932     $  1,295     $ 283,360  
 
 (1)
Includes $66 million ($163 million as at October 31, 2024) of residential mortgages and $13,116 million ($12,431 million as at October 31, 2024) of business and government loans that are classified and measured at
FVTPL and not subject to ECL
.
 (2)
Includes PCI loans.
 (3)
Includes purchased portfolios and certain cases where an internal risk rating is not assigned. Alternative credit risk assessments, rating methodologies, policies and tools are used to manage credit risk for these portfolios.
 (4)
Credit card loans are immediately written off when principal or interest payments are 180 days past due, and as a result are not reported as impaired in Stage 3.
 (5)
Includes customers’ liability under acceptances.
 (6)
Represents the total contractual amounts of undrawn credit facilities and other
off-balance
sheet exposures, excluding personal lines of credit and credit cards that are unconditionally cancellable at our discretion.
 (7)
Certain commercial borrower commitments are conditional and may include recourse to counterparties.
Loans Past Due Not Impaired
Loans that are past due but not classified as impaired are loans where our customers have failed to make payments when contractually due but for which we expect the full amount of principal and interest payments to be collected, or loans which are held at fair value. The following table presents loans that are past due but not classified as impaired as at January 31, 2025 and October 31, 2024. Loans less than 30 days past due are excluded as they are not generally representative of the borrower’s ability to meet their payment obligations.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(Canadian $ in millions)
        
January 31, 2025
          
October 31, 2024
  
   
30 to 89 days
    
90 days or more 
(1)
    
Total
    
30 to 89 days
    
90 days or more (1)
    
Total
  
Residential mortgages
  
$
797
    
$
10
    
$
807
    
$
696
    
$
15
    
$
711
  
Credit cards, consumer instalment and other personal
    
787
      
189
      
976
      
734
      
173
      
907
  
Business and government
    
679
      
19
      
698
      
689
      
16
      
705
  
Total
  
$
  2,263
    
$
    218
    
$
  2,481
    
$
  2,119
    
$
    204
    
$
  2,323
  
 (1) Fully secured loans with amounts between 90 and 180 days past due that we have not classified as impaired totalled $10 million as at January 31, 2025 ($16 million as at October 31, 2024).
 
 
ECL Sensitivity and Key Economic Variables
The ECL model requires the recognition of credit losses generally based on 12 months of expected losses for performing loans and the recognition of lifetime losses on performing loans that have experienced a significant increase in credit risk since origination.
The allowance for performing loans is sensitive to changes in both economic forecasts and the probability-weight assigned to each forecast scenario. Many of the factors have a high degree of interdependency, although there is no single factor to which loan loss allowances as a whole are sensitive.
The upside scenario as at January 31, 2025 assumes a stronger economic environment than the base case forecast, with lower unemployment rates.
As at January 31, 2025, our base case scenario depicts an economic environment with modestly higher unemployment rates in the near-term, largely in response to previously elevated interest rates and tighter lending conditions, and a moderate economic recovery over the medium-term as inflation is expected to ease further and lead to lower interest rates. Our base case forecast as at October 31, 2024 broadly depicted a weak economic environment in the near term, while improving over the medium term.
If we assumed a 100% weight on the base case forecast and included the impact of loan migration by restaging, with other assumptions held constant, including the application of experienced credit judgment, the allowance on performing loans would be approximately $2,675 million as at January 31, 2025 ($2,625 million as at October 31, 2024), compared to the reported allowance for performing loans of $4,480 million ($4,205 million as at October 31, 2024).
As at January 31, 2025, our downside scenario
involves
a sharp contraction in the Canadian and U.S. economies in the near-term, followed by a relatively slow recovery. Our severe downside scenario depicts
an even
deeper contraction in the Canadian and U.S. economies than in the downside scenario. The severe downside scenario as at October 31, 2024 broadly depicted a similar economic environment over the projection period. If we assumed a 100% severe downside economic forecast and included the impact of loan migration by restaging, with other assumptions held constant, including the application of experienced credit judgment, the allowance on performing loans would be approximately $8,225 million as at January 31, 2025 ($7,500 million as at October 31, 2024), compared to the reported allowance for performing loans of $4,480 million ($4,205 million as at October 31, 2024).
Actual results in a recession will differ as our portfolio will change through time due to migration, growth, changes in geopolitical risks, risk mitigation actions and other factors. In addition, our allowance will reflect the four economic scenarios used in assessing the allowance, with often unequal weightings attached to each scenario, which can change through time.
The following tables show the key economic variables used to estimate the allowance for performing loans forecast over the next 12 months or lifetime measurement period. The variables as at January 31, 2025 do not include the impact of tariffs on the economic outlook, but they do incorporate uncertainty with respect to their potential introduction. While the values disclosed below are national variables, we use regional variables in the underlying models and consider factors impacting particular industries where appropriate.
 
    
As at January 31, 2025
  
    
Scenarios
  
All figures are average annual values
  
Upside
     
Base
     
Downside
     
Severe downside
  
    
First 12
months
     
Remaining
horizon
(1)
     
First 12
months
     
Remaining
horizon
(1)
     
First 12
months
     
Remaining
horizon
(1)
     
First 12
months
     
Remaining
horizon
(1)
  
Real GDP growth rates (2)
                       
Canada
    
4.8%
       
2.6%
       
2.0%
       
1.9%
       
(2.4)%
       
1.2% 
       
(3.7)%
       
1.2% 
  
United States
    
4.7%
       
2.4%
       
2.3%
       
1.9%
       
(2.1)%
       
1.4% 
       
(3.3)%
       
1.3% 
  
Corporate BBB
10-year
spread
                       
Canada
    
1.2%
       
1.8%
       
1.8%
       
2.0%
       
3.5% 
       
3.0% 
       
4.2% 
       
3.5% 
  
United States
    
0.9%
       
1.6%
       
1.6%
       
2.0%
       
3.4% 
       
3.1% 
       
4.6% 
       
3.6% 
  
Unemployment rates
                                                                                               
Canada
    
5.5%
       
5.0%
       
6.9%
       
6.6%
       
8.9% 
       
9.6% 
       
9.9% 
       
10.7% 
  
United States
    
3.6%
       
3.2%
       
4.3%
       
4.1%
       
6.8% 
       
7.4% 
       
7.5% 
       
8.4% 
  
Housing Price Index (2)
                       
Canada (3)
    
7.2%
       
5.2%
       
3.0%
       
2.8%
       
(9.1)%
       
(1.7)%
       
(20.2)%
       
(5.0)%
  
United States (4)
    
5.8%
       
4.0%
       
2.7%
       
2.6%
       
(9.7)%
       
(1.0)%
       
(19.4)%
       
(4.3)%
  
 
 (1)
The remaining forecast period is two years.
 (2)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) and housing price index are averages of quarterly year-over-year growth rates.
 (3)
In Canada, we use the Housing Price Index Benchmark Composite.
 (4)
In the United States, we use the National Case-Shiller House Price Index.
 
 
 
 
   
$
                  
    
$
                  
    
$
                  
    
$
                  
    
$
                  
    
$
                  
    
$
                  
    
$
                  
  
  
 
As at October 31, 2024
 
  
 
Scenarios
 
All figures are average annual values
 
Upside
 
  
Base
 
  
Downside
 
  
Severe downside
 
  
 
First 12
months
 
  
Remaining
horizon (1)
 
  
First 12
months
 
  
Remaining
horizon (1)
 
  
First 12
months
 
  
Remaining
horizon (1)
 
  
First 12
months
 
  
Remaining
horizon (1)
 
Real GDP growth rates (2)
 
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
Canada
 
 
4.6%
 
  
 
2.6%
 
  
 
1.8%
 
  
 
1.9%
 
  
 
(2.3)%
 
  
 
1.3% 
 
  
 
(3.6)%
 
  
 
1.2% 
 
United States
 
 
4.3%
 
  
 
2.4%
 
  
 
1.9%
 
  
 
1.9%
 
  
 
(2.1)%
 
  
 
1.4% 
 
  
 
(3.4)%
 
  
 
1.3% 
 
Corporate BBB
10-year
spread
 
 
    
 
  
 
    
 
  
 
    
 
  
 
    
 
  
 
    
 
  
 
    
 
  
 
    
 
  
 
    
 
Canada
 
 
1.3%
 
  
 
1.8%
 
  
 
1.9%
 
  
 
2.0%
 
  
 
3.6% 
 
  
 
3.0% 
 
  
 
4.2% 
 
  
 
3.5% 
 
United States
 
 
0.9%
 
  
 
1.6%
 
  
 
1.6%
 
  
 
2.0%
 
  
 
3.4% 
 
  
 
3.1% 
 
  
 
4.6% 
 
  
 
3.6% 
 
Unemployment rates
 
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
Canada
 
 
5.3%
 
  
 
4.8%
 
  
 
7.0%
 
  
 
6.8%
 
  
 
8.8% 
 
  
 
9.4% 
 
  
 
9.8% 
 
  
 
10.5% 
 
United States
 
 
3.4%
 
  
 
3.0%
 
  
 
4.7%
 
  
 
4.4%
 
  
 
6.7% 
 
  
 
7.3% 
 
  
 
7.6% 
 
  
 
8.4% 
 
Housing Price Index (2)
 
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
  
      
Canada (3)
 
 
5.9%
 
  
 
5.4%
 
  
 
1.6%
 
  
 
3.0%
 
  
 
(10.9)%
 
  
 
(1.0)%
 
  
 
(19.0)%
 
  
 
(5.0)%
 
United States (4)
 
 
5.9%
 
  
 
4.0%
 
  
 
2.8%
 
  
 
2.6%
 
  
 
(9.6)%
 
  
 
(1.0)%
 
  
 
(19.3)%
 
  
 
(4.3)%
 
 
 (1)
The remaining forecast period is two years.
 (2)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) and housing price index are averages of quarterly year-over-year growth rates.
 (3)
In Canada, we use the Housing Price Index Benchmark Composite.
 (4)
In the United States, we use the National Case-Shiller House Price Index.
The
ECL approach requires the recognition of credit losses generally based on 12 months of expected losses for performing loans (Stage 1) and the recognition of lifetime expected losses for performing loans that have experienced a significant increase in credit risk since origination (Stage 2). Under our current probability-weighted scenarios, if all
of
 
our performing loans were in Stage 1, our models would generate an allowance for performing loans of approximately $3,225 million ($3,050 million as at October 31, 2024), compared to the reported allowance for performing loans of $4,480 million ($4,205 million
as
at October 31, 2024).