EX-99.1 2 investorpresentationciti.htm EXHIBIT 99.1 investorpresentationciti
LATROBE Washington D.C. FOXCHASE Alexandria, VA AVERY ROW Arlington, VA Aimco Portfolio within 8 miles of Amazon’s planned HQ2 site MERRILL HOUSE in Arlington, VA Falls Church, VA 5 Properties 2,654 Apartment Homes 5% of Aimco GAV Citi Global Property CEO Conference Investor Presentation March 2019


 
CREATING VALUE OVER TIME: THE RECORD Aimco’s primary measure of long-term financial performance is Economic Income. Measuring Aimco shareholder value creation by the per share change in Net Asset Value (NAV) plus Cash Dividends paid, Aimco Economic Income has compounded: (1) o Since IPO through 3Q 2018 , at 14.0% annually; and o Over the last five years, through 3Q 2018, at 11.5% annually. • Aimco publishes its NAV estimate semi-annually; as of 3Q 2018: NAV = $56 per share. Over the last five years, Aimco has produced consistent results, demonstrated by: • Same Store five-year NOI CAGR 20 bps above peer average with a peer-leading Same Store expense CAGR, 60 bps lower than the nearest peer. Operations • 2018 peer-leading Same Store NOI margin of 74%, with 820 bps of margin expansion over the last five years, ~590 bps better than peer-average margin expansion of ~230 bps. Redevelopment • ~$1B Redevelopment and Development spending which created ~$400M of value. • Sale of $2.9B of lower rated assets. Portfolio Management • Exit from the affordable housing business. • Improved quality of earnings. Balance Sheet • Growth in Aimco’s unencumbered pool from $0.4B in 4Q13 to $2.7B in 4Q18. (1) Represents Aimco’s last published Net Asset Value of $56/sh at 9/30/2018 and share price at IPO as a proxy for NAV. 2


 
CREATING VALUE OVER TIME: THE PROMISE Going forward, Aimco maintains its commitment to excellence in operations, disciplined capital allocation via its paired trade philosophy, and guarding its safe and flexible balance sheet. • At the midpoint, 2019 Same Store revenue guidance is 30 bps above peer average Operations and NOI guidance is 75 bps above peer average. • Increased spending to $225-$275M targets ~$100M of value creation, a boost to Redevelopment 2019 Economic Income. • Maintain disciplined capital allocation strategy via paired trades with an eye toward opportunistic transactions. Portfolio Management • Maintain a portfolio diversified by geography and price point. • High quality of earnings: 98% of 2019 AFFO from “core real estate operations.”(1) • Ongoing commitment to a safe and flexible balance sheet. Balance Sheet • 4Q 2018 property debt refinancing activity will result in annual savings of ~$13M and >$3B of unencumbered properties by year-end 2019. (1) Earnings outside of “core real estate operations” represents AFFO contribution from Asset Management, historic tax credits, and other tax benefits. 3


 
AIMCO’S EARNINGS QUALITY • Aimco’s earnings contribution from real estate operations has steadily increased since the planned exit from the affordable and asset management businesses was announced in 2011, and is expected to be 98% of AFFO in 2019. o Aimco’s 2019 Same Store portfolio is expected to contribute $0.11, or 5% AFFO growth. o Other Earnings, defined as contributions from affordable, asset management, and tax related income, are expected to be just 2% of AFFO, or $0.05 per share, in 2019. At the midpoint, Aimco 2019 AFFO guidance is $2.17 per share. • $2.12 from Core Aimco Earnings • $0.05 from Other Earnings 4


 
OPERATIONS UPDATE 2019 SAME STORE OUTLOOK • Aimco anticipates market rental rate growth to be SIMILAR to 2018, with EARN-IN from Aimco’s year-end 2018 rent roll contributing 150 bps to 2019 Same Store revenue growth, 30 bps greater than for 2018. • Aimco started 2019 with January Same Store average daily occupancy (“ADO”) 100 bps HIGHER than in 2018. 2019 SAME STORE GUIDANCE o Revenue Growth: 2.80% to 3.80% o Expense Growth: 2.00% to 3.00% o NOI Growth: 2.70% to 4.50% EARLY 2019 UPDATE • Aimco is ON-TRACK through February 2019, maintaining high ADO, up 100 bps year-over-year, with strengthening new and renewal lease rates. CHANGES IN SAME STORE Jan Feb YTD RENTAL RATES(1) 2019 2019(1) Leases RENEWALS 4.9% 5.2% 5.1% NEW LEASES 0.0% 1.1% 0.5% WT. AVG. 2.1% 3.0% 2.6% AVERAGE DAILY OCCUPANCY 97.0% 97.0% 97.0% (“ADO”) • Preliminary YTD Same Store net rental income (“NRI”) through February is up more than 4% year-over-year. (1) February leasing data is updated as of 2/28/2019, and is considered preliminary, actual results published with the 1Q 2019 Earnings Release may differ. 5


 
INNOVATION & PRODUCTIVITY • Focus on efficient, productive operations: Aimco uses Controllable Operating Expenses ("COE"), defined as property level expenses before taxes, insurance, and utilities, as a measure of operating efficiency. o 2019 expected COE growth of 50 bps. o For the five years ended 2018, Aimco COE growth was 1.1%. o For the ten years ended 2018, Aimco COE growth was flat. • Innovation is the foundation of Aimco cost control efforts. Innovative activities include: Same Store Expense Growth 2013 - 2018 Redesign work: moving administrative tasks to the o 120 Shared Service Center reduces cost and allows site CAGR 3.1% Peer Avg teams to focus on sales and service. 115 o Standardize: reduce complexity, increase purchasing volume discounts. 110 2.0% Aimco 1.1% Aimco COE o Invest: focus on total lifecycle costs by installing 105 more durable in-unit materials such as plank flooring instead of carpet and granite countertops instead of 100 laminate. 95 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 o Leverage Technology: meet today’s customer preference for self-service and convenience, while also reducing costs through innovation, including website design, package lockers, and smart home technology. 6


 
REDEVELOPMENT REDEVELOPMENT PROVIDES CONSISTENT VALUE CREATION • Over the past five years, Aimco spent $1B on Redevelopment and Development, creating ~$400M of value. • In 2019, Aimco plans to spend $225-$275M on Redevelopment and Development, targeting 40% value creation. • Of the planned spending for 2019, two-thirds represents projects that are currently in-process including Parc Mosaic, Flamingo, The Fremont, Elm Creek, as well as other smaller projects. • The remaining one-third of 2019 spending is planned for new starts from Aimco’s deep redevelopment project pipeline. 2019 POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT PROJECTS MINNEAPOLIS Calhoun Beach Club (Expanded Scope) DENVER NEW YORK CITY Anschutz Expansion East 88th & 2nd Ave (Additional Phases) PHILADELPHIA BAY AREA Chestnut Hall 707 Leahy GREATER GREATER LA WASHINGTON, DC Villas at Park La Brea Bent Tree SAN DIEGO Mariner's Cove MIAMI Bay Parc (Additional Phases) Flamingo South Beach (Expanded Scope) The menu shown above is representative of the communities whose redevelopment or development is being considered in 2019. Actual projects and their scope will differ depending on approvals. 7


 
REDEVELOPMENT CYCLE SMALL PHASE REDEVELOPMENTS - INVENTORY MANAGEMENT • When practical, Aimco prefers small phase redevelopments which provide optionality and flexibility to meet market demand. • Managing inventory to meet demand allows for steady and predictable NOI growth proportionate and in sync with value creation. MAJOR REDEVELOPMENTS • Aimco engages in larger phase, major redevelopment when the scope of the project, or the community design, requires investment in larger building systems or common areas. • Larger phased redevelopments may have comparable value creation, but the longer cycle time increases risk and current period earnings dilution. REDEVELOPMENT CYCLE • Aimco Economic Income based on value creation is generally consistent, while current period AFFO is often diluted during construction and until the community is stabilized, as described below. Stabilized Construction Lease-Up Post Redev Pre-Construction Phase NOI Stabilization Value Creation Initial Value Creation Continued Value Creation Value Creation Fully Opportunity •GAV is created on a risk •GAV is created as Realized •Based on location and adjusted basis as construction is completed •Full accretion from investment ability to reposition the redevelopment dollars and lease-up begins and incremental value asset in the market are spent creation AFFO Dilution AFFO Growth Opportunity AFFO Dilution •Vacancy during lease up, Full AFFO Earnings •Stabilized NOI, with the •Down units and increased marketing •Maximized earnings potential potential to outpace the disruption to leasing expenses, and minimal or through intentional community market through from construction, no capitalized interest offset design, targeted marketing, repositioning partially offset w/ and successful repositioning capitalized interest •Achieved up to 2 years after construction completion Current Example Current Example 2019 Lease-Ups Current Example •707 Leahy •Parc Mosaic •Parc Mosaic (2Q19 Initial •The Sterling Occupancy) 8


 
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT CAPITAL ALLOCATION DECISIONS • Aimco sold ~$1.0B of lower-rated properties in 2018 and January 2019, with another $0.3B expected to close in March 2019. Aimco also issued $65M of OP units in 2018 at NAV of $53 per share(1) for a total $1.3B in sources of capital. • Aimco reinvested $1.3B of capital sources in accretive uses with higher expected FCF IRRs, including: o Capital Enhancements: $103M o Redevelopment/Development: $176M o Acquisitions: $498M o Net Leverage Reduction: ~$130M o Stock Buyback: $394M • These transactions increase expected Free Cash Flow returns by >400 bps. (1) Aimco’s published NAV estimate at the time of Philadelphia acquisition announcement. 9


 
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT 2019 CAPITAL PLANS Aimco allocates capital in accordance with its FCF IRR paired trade discipline and on a leverage-neutral basis. Aimco considers unlevered risk- Aimco considers portfolio implications Aimco considers its cost of unlevered adjusted returns from a menu of capital and execution risks such as: equity capital, including: uses including: • Capital Enhancements • Geographic market concentrations • Sale of lower-rated properties • Redevelopment • Price point concentrations • Sale of partial interests in higher- • Development • Competitive new supply rated properties • Acquisitions • Entitlement risk • Issuance of shares or OP units at or • Leverage reduction • Construction risk above NAV • Share buybacks • Lease-up risk • Aimco’s 2019 base case contemplates: o $225-$275M of Redevelopment and Development spending, $80-$100M of Capital Enhancements funded by property sales; and o Property sales completed in January, and those under-contract for sale, to fund the $394M of stock buybacks in the fourth quarter of 2018; o Additional transactions yet to be identified, accretive on a risk-adjusted basis, such as: • Under-managed communities (e.g. Bent Tree Apartments & Avery Row) • OP unit transactions (e.g. Philadelphia portfolio) • New construction where Aimco bears lease-up risk, but no construction risk (e.g. Vivo) • Stock buybacks (AIV has existing authorization for 10.6M additional shares) 10


 
HIGH QUALITY BALANCE SHEET AIMCO LIMITS RISK THROUGH BALANCE SHEET STRUCTURE • Employ low leverage: 33% loan-to-value at 4Q 2018 • Finance primarily with non-recourse property debt and preferred equity: 91% and 5%, respectively, of Aimco total leverage at 4Q 2018 • Maintain financial flexibility: • Ample available credit: $633M of $800M commitment available at 4Q 2018 • A pool of unencumbered properties: Valued at $2.7B at 4Q 2018 • Maintain investment grade rating as confirmation of the safety of Aimco’s balance sheet 11


 
HIGH QUALITY BALANCE SHEET Refunding risk is lower than total leverage due to principal At 4Q 2018 Aimco had property debt at 33% loan-to-portfolio amortization paid from retained earnings, and because Aimco’s value, refinancing activity in 2018 provides a prospective perpetual preferred equity is not subject to mandatory refunding. annual interest savings of ~$13M. By growing the value of its unencumbered properties, Aimco has increased the flexibility of its balance sheet, and also improved its financial capacity to execute opportunistically. (1) $247M of property debt is payable at par in 2020 but does not mature until 2021; Aimco intends to address this debt in 2020. 12


 
TEAM AND CULTURE Focus intentionally on a collaborative and productive culture based on respect for others, personal responsibility, reinforced by a preference for promotion from within based on talent development and succession planning to produce a strong, stable team that is the enduring foundation of Aimco success. TEAM ENGAGEMENT • Out of hundreds of participating companies, Aimco is one of only eight recognized as a "Top Place to Work" in Colorado for each of the past six years. • For the past five years, Aimco team engagement scores, on a 1 to 5 scale, have averaged better than 4. TALENT AND SUCCESSION PLANNING • In 2018, Aimco invested $1.9M in team member training and development. • Aimco has a policy preferring promotion from within and maintains a talent pipeline for every executive officer position, including the CEO. • Aimco maintains a forward-looking approach to succession. Positions are filled considering the business strategy and needs at the time of a vacancy and the candidates’ skills, experience, expertise, leadership, and fit. • The Aimco Board of Directors participates actively in succession planning and reviews in detail the executive talent pipeline and candidate development progress at least once a year. Further, the Board engages directly and regularly with executive officers and the candidates for their succession. 13


 
AIMCO SENIOR LEADERSHIP TEAM Aimco benefits from a long-tenured team with an average of 16 years of Aimco service. Paul Beldin John Bezzant Lisa Cohn Terry Considine Miles Cortez Steve Crane Matt Eilen EVP & EVP & EVP & Chairman & EVP & Real Estate Tax Property Operations Chief Financial Officer Chief Investment General Counsel CEO Chief Administrative 15 Years Finance 10 Years Officer 16 Years 43 Years Officer 9 Years 12 Years 17 Years Michael Englhard Patti Fielding Richard Hawthorne Kristina Howe Jennifer Johnson Keith Kimmel Stephanie Lambert Didi Meredith Redevelopment EVP: Debt & Treasurer Redevelopment Property Operations Human Resources EVP Redevelopment Property Operations Construction Services President: Construction Services Shared Services 14 Years Property Operations Finance West Operations 5 Years Aimco Investment Partners 11 Years 16 Years 16 Years 17 Years 12 Years 22 Years Leann Morein Kevin Mosher Susan Pickens Wes Powell Patti Shwayder Martin Sprang Lynn Stanfield Compliance Property Operations IT EVP Government Relations Asset Quality & EVP Finance & Tax 24 Years East Operations 24 Years Redevelopment & Communications Service 17 Years 11 Years 15 Years 16 Years 12 Years 14


 
POTENTIAL 2019 RISKS Aimco regularly assesses risks that may impact its business and takes prudent precautions to ensure that the company is well-positioned. Mitigating Factors • Aimco maintains a portfolio that is diversified by geography and price point to mitigate the New Supply impact of competitive new supply. Aimco exposure to new supply is expected to be less in 2019 than in 2018 and is discussed on pg. 16. • Aimco resident retention averaged 52% over the past five years, limiting the impact of new U.S. Economy lease pricing if the market were to decline. • Aimco has limited exposure to increasing interest rates: $3.7B (85% of total leverage) is Interest Rates fixed-rate; ~$750M (17% of total leverage) matures in next three years. • Aimco government affairs and legal teams work directly with federal, state, and local governments and also through industry groups to make government decision making, relevant to Aimco business, better informed, for example: Political Risk o Aimco teams participated with the industry coalition to oppose Prop 10 in California. • Aimco works with federal, state and local governments to protect the right of property owners to select their residents and their neighbors. 15


 
EXPOSURE TO NEW SUPPLY • Aimco considers competitive new supply to be significant primarily to “A” price point communities in submarkets with projected completions of more than 2.0% of existing stock. Based on third-party forecasts of new supply, Aimco properties representing 19% of GAV may be so affected in 2019, down from 23% at the beginning of 2018. • Even where markets face elevated new supply, the quality of the Aimco offering or its location, or an increase in local demand, for example from job growth, can reduce or offset the impact of new supply. % Aimco GAV 2019 Invested in "A" Completions 2019 New Jobs Submarket Graded as a % of per Unit Market Submarket Communities Stock(1) Completed(2) Aimco Specific Mitigating Factors New supply is expected to increase in 2019 as deliveries moved out from 2018. Los Angeles Mid-Wilshire 8.7% 2.1% 3 This market now screens just above our threshold. New supply pressure continues; however it is declining from 2018 and strong job Philadelphia Center City 6.4% 3.7% 11 growth suggests supply should be absorbed. New supply outlook for 2019 has declined from last update; and new jobs data Chicago Central DuPage County 1.0% 2.6% 5 suggests 2019 supply should be absorbed. New supply is declining from 2018; and new jobs data suggests 2019 supply Minneapolis Uptown/St. Louis Park 0.9% 2.1% 6 should be absorbed. New supply is expected to be elevated, however, it is expected to be a different Denver Littleton 0.4% 4.3% 3 product type with appeal to a different customer, i.e., mostly 1-bedroom units vs. Aimco’s townhome community. Midtown Atlanta 0.5% 7.2% New supply completions are expected to continue into 2019 and to pressure Atlanta 5 Buckhead 0.2% 8.8% rents at Aimco properties. New supply completions are expected to continue into 2019 and to pressure Nashville West Nashville 0.4% 5.8% 5 rents at Aimco properties; however new supply is expected to be delivered at a higher price point than current Aimco rents. New supply completions are expected to pressure rents at Avery Row, Aimco’s Washington D.C. North Arlington 0.2% 4.2% 7 newest acquisition, however this is a 67-unit property, currently 97% occupied with only ~20 new leases expected in 2019. Total % of Aimco GAV Exposed 18.6% Declining Continuing Increasing Supply Outlook High Supply Supply Outlook • Additionally, select Aimco “B” submarket graded communities may face supply pressure based on the proximity of new product being delivered, e.g. Yacht Club in Miami and 3400 Avenue of the Arts in Orange County, which both have lease-ups directly across the street. (1) Based on submarket data for deliveries in 2019 as a percentage of 4Q18 forecasted stock as of 4Q 2018, available from Axio/MPF Research. (2) Employment figures are based on market data as reported by Green Street Advisors (Dec 2018). As a rule of thumb, at least five new jobs are necessary to absorb one unit of new supply. 16


 
WHY INVEST IN AIMCO? • Best-in-Class Operations: Lower resident turnover through intentional focus on customer selection and satisfaction drives peer- leading margins. • Paired-Trade Capital Allocation Discipline: Aimco adheres to a disciplined paired-trade strategy comparing expected unlevered returns on all of its capital allocation uses to the expected unlevered costs of capital. • Aimco invests up to 3% of its GAV annually in repositioning existing properties and constructing new ones, adding on average, $0.40 to Net Asset Value for every dollar invested in the last 5 years, and at FCF IRRs of >10%. • Since 2016, notwithstanding a fully priced market, Aimco has made $1.3B of opportunistic acquisitions where Aimco had a comparative “advantage” that provided for outsized value creation. o Indigo, Palazzo (reacquisition of 47% interest from JV partner), Bent Tree Apartments, Philadelphia portfolio, and Avery Row; o These acquisitions were funded with paired trade activities that increased expected FCF IRR by ~300 bps. • Geographically Diversified: Targeting 12 of the largest markets in the nation, including the only publicly traded apartment REIT with significant and targeted investments in Philadelphia and Chicago, and one of only two with significant investments in Miami. • Safe and Flexible Balance Sheet: Aimco is the only REIT in its peer group that primarily uses safe, non-recourse, property level financing while maintaining an investment grade rating as confirmation of the safety of its balance sheet. 17


 
FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS & OTHER INFORMATION This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including, without limitation, statements regarding projected results and specifically forecasts of 2019 expectations, including but not limited to: AFFO and selected components thereof; Aimco redevelopment and development investments and projected value creation from such investments; Aimco refinancing activities; and Aimco liquidity and leverage metrics. These forward-looking statements are based on management’s judgment as of this date, which is subject to risks and uncertainties. Risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: Aimco’s ability to maintain current or meet projected occupancy, rental rate and property operating results; the effect of acquisitions, dispositions, redevelopments and developments; Aimco’s ability to meet budgeted costs and timelines, and achieve budgeted rental rates related to Aimco redevelopments and developments; and Aimco’s ability to comply with debt covenants, including financial coverage ratios. Actual results may differ materially from those described in these forward-looking statements and, in addition, will be affected by a variety of risks and factors, some of which are beyond Aimco’s control, including, without limitation: • Real estate and operating risks, including fluctuations in real estate values and the general economic climate in the markets in which Aimco operates and competition for residents in such markets; national and local economic conditions, including the pace of job growth and the level of unemployment; the amount, location and quality of competitive new housing supply; the timing of acquisitions, dispositions, redevelopments and developments; and changes in operating costs, including energy costs; • Financing risks, including the availability and cost of capital markets’ financing; the risk that cash flows from operations may be insufficient to meet required payments of principal and interest; and the risk that earnings may not be sufficient to maintain compliance with debt covenants; • Insurance risks, including the cost of insurance, and natural disasters and severe weather such as hurricanes; and • Legal and regulatory risks, including costs associated with prosecuting or defending claims and any adverse outcomes; the terms of governmental regulations that affect Aimco and interpretations of those regulations; and possible environmental liabilities, including costs, fines or penalties that may be incurred due to necessary remediation of contamination of apartment communities presently or previously owned by Aimco. In addition, Aimco’s current and continuing qualification as a real estate investment trust involves the application of highly technical and complex provisions of the Internal Revenue Code and depends on Aimco’s ability to meet the various requirements imposed by the Internal Revenue Code, through actual operating results, distribution levels and diversity of stock ownership. Pursuant to its existing authority to repurchase up to an additional 10.6M shares, the company may make repurchases from time to time in the open market or in privately negotiated transactions at the company’s discretion and in accordance with the requirements of the SEC. The timing and amount of repurchases, if at all, will depend on market pricing as well as other conditions. Readers should carefully review Aimco’s financial statements and the notes thereto, as well as the section entitled “Risk Factors” in Item 1A of Aimco’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2018, and the other documents Aimco files from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These forward-looking statements reflect management’s judgment as of this date, and Aimco assumes no obligation to revise or update them to reflect future events or circumstances. This presentation does not constitute an offer of securities for sale. Glossary & Reconciliations of Non-GAAP Financial and Operating Measures Financial and operating measures discussed in this document include certain financial measures used by Aimco management, that are measures not defined under accounting principles generally accepted in the United States, or GAAP. Certain Aimco terms and Non-GAAP measures are defined in the Glossary and Reconciliations of Non-GAAP Financial and Operating Measures included in Aimco’s Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Release dated February 4, 2019. 18