EX-99.2 3 exhibit2.htm EX-99.2 EX-99.2

Exhibit 99.2

ERIE INDEMNITY COMPANY

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS

(dollars in thousands, except per share data)

                                 
    Three   Three   Nine   Nine
    months   months   months   months
    ended   ended   ended   ended
    September 30,   September 30,   September 30,   September 30,
    2007   2006   2007   2006
    (Unaudited)   (Unaudited)   (Unaudited)   (Unaudited)
Operating revenue
                               
Management fee revenue, net
  $ 232,089   $ 231,388   $ 690,432   $ 688,723
Premiums earned
  51,892   53,017   155,988   160,868
Service agreement revenue
  7,470   7,410   22,186   21,508
 
                               
Total operating revenue
  291,451   291,815   868,606   871,099
 
                               
Operating expenses
                               
Cost of management operations
  200,913   189,536   576,768   562,629
Losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred
  30,766   32,573   92,789   101,261
Policy acquisition and other underwriting expenses
  13,090   12,325   36,779   38,905
 
                               
Total operating expenses
  244,769   234,434   706,336   702,795
 
                               
Investment income – unaffiliated
                               
Investment income, net of expenses
  12,233   12,215   40,350   41,818
Net realized gains (losses) on investments
  3,438   (872 )   7,550   (721 )
Equity in earnings of limited partnerships
  14,169   10,848   46,867   29,049
 
                               
Total investment income – unaffiliated
  29,840   22,191   94,767   70,146
 
                               
Income before income taxes and equity in earnings of Erie Family Life Insurance Company
  76,522   79,572   257,037   238,450
Provision for income taxes
  23,669   27,421   79,767   82,513
Equity in earnings of Erie Family Life Insurance Company, net of tax
  643   634   3,074   2,569
 
                               
Net income
  $ 53,496   $ 52,785   $ 180,344   $ 158,506
 
                               
Net income per share:
                               
Class A common stock – basic
  $ 0.97   $ 0.91   $ 3.17   $ 2.67
 
                               
Class A common stock – diluted
  0.87   0.82   2.87   2.41
 
                               
Class B common stock – basic and diluted
  145.92   139.34   482.27   404.46
 
                               
Weighted average shares outstanding:
                               
Class A common stock – basic
  55,183,547   57,873,922   56,727,315   59,179,328
 
                               
Class A common stock – diluted
  61,370,219   64,129,350   62,935,587   65,717,956
 
                               
Class B common stock – basic and diluted
  2,559   2,573   2,568   2,691
 
                               
Dividends declared per share:
                               
Class A common stock
  $ 0.40   $ 0.36   $ 1.20   $ 1.08
 
                               
Class B common stock
  60.00   54.00   180.00   162.00
 
                               

1

ERIE INDEMNITY COMPANY

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS — SEGMENT BASIS

(amounts in thousands, except per share data)

                                 
    Three   Three   Nine   Nine
    months   months   months   months
    ended   ended   ended   ended
    September 30,   September 30,   September 30,   September 30,
    2007   2006   2007   2006
    (Unaudited)   (Unaudited)   (Unaudited)   (Unaudited)
Management Operations
                               
Management fee revenue
  $ 245,585   $ 244,739   $ 730,691   $ 728,778
Service agreement revenue
  7,470   7,410   22,186   21,508
 
                               
Total revenue from management operations
  253,055   252,149   752,877   750,286
Cost of management operations
  212,601   200,498   610,377   595,351
 
                               
Income from management operations
  40,454   51,651   142,500   154,935
 
                               
Insurance Underwriting Operations
                               
Premiums earned
  51,892   53,017   155,988   160,868
 
                               
Losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred
  30,766   32,573   92,789   101,261
Policy acquisition and other underwriting expenses
  14,898   14,714   43,429   46,238
 
                               
Total losses and expenses
  45,664   47,287   136,218   147,499
 
                               
Underwriting income
  6,228   5,730   19,770   13,369
 
                               
Investment Operations
                               
Investment income, net of expenses
  12,233   12,215   40,350   41,818
Net realized gains (losses) on investments
  3,438   (872 )   7,550   (721 )
Equity in earnings of limited partnerships
  14,169   10,848   46,867   29,049
Equity in earnings of Erie Family Life Insurance Company
  692   682   3,304   2,763
 
                               
Net revenue from investment operations
  30,532   22,873   98,071   72,909
 
                               
Income before income taxes
  77,214   80,254   260,341   241,213
Provision for income taxes
  23,718   27,469   79,997   82,707
 
                               
Net income
  $ 53,496   $ 52,785   $ 180,344   $ 158,506
 
                               
Net income per share – Class A basic
  $ 0.97   $ 0.91   $ 3.17   $ 2.67
 
                               
Net income per share – Class A diluted
  0.87   0.82   2.87   2.41
 
                               
Net income per share – Class B basic and diluted
  145.92   139.34   482.27   404.46
 
                               
Weighted average shares outstanding - Class A diluted
  61,370   64,129   62,936   65,718
 
                               

Amounts presented on a segment basis are gross of intercompany/intersegment items.

2

ERIE INDEMNITY COMPANY

RECONCILIATION OF OPERATING INCOME TO NET INCOME

Definition on Non-GAAP and Operating Measures

We believe that investors’ understanding of our performance is enhanced by the disclosure of the following non-GAAP financial measure. Our method of calculating this measure may differ from those used by other companies and therefore comparability may be limited.

Operating income is net income excluding realized capital gains and losses and related federal income taxes. Equity in earnings or losses of Erie Family Life Insurance Company and equity in earnings or losses of limited partnerships are not excluded from the calculation of operating income. Both of these categories include the respective investment’s realized capital gains and losses, as well as unrealized gains and losses, as these investments are accounted for under the equity method.

Net income is the GAAP measure that is most directly comparable to operating income.

We use operating income to evaluate the results of operations. It reveals trends in our management services, insurance underwriting and investment operations that may be obscured by the net effects of realized capital gains and losses. Realized capital gains and losses may vary significantly between periods and are generally driven by business decisions and economic developments such as capital market condition, the timing of which is unrelated to management services and the insurance underwriting processes. We believe it is useful for investors to evaluate these components separately and in the aggregate when reviewing our performance. We are aware that the price to earnings multiple commonly used by investors as a forward-looking valuation technique uses operating income as the denominator. Operating income should not be considered as a substitute for net income and does not reflect our overall profitability.

The following table reconciles operating income and net income for the periods ended September 30, 2007 and 2006:

                                 
    Three   Three   Nine   Nine
    months ended   months ended   months ended   months ended
    September 30,   September 30,   September 30,   September 30,
    2007   2006   2007   2006
    (Unaudited)   (Unaudited)   (Unaudited)   (Unaudited)
(in thousands, except per share data)
                               
Operating income
  $ 51,261   $ 53,352   $ 175,436   $ 158,975
Net realized gains (losses) on investments
  3,438   (872 )   7,550   (721 )
Income tax (expense) benefit on realized gains (losses)
  (1,203 )   305   (2,642 )   252
 
                               
Realized gains (losses), net of income taxes
  2,235   (567 )   4,908   (469 )
 
                               
Net income
  $ 53,496   $ 52,785   $ 180,344   $ 158,506
 
                               
 
  Three   Three   Nine   Nine
 
  months ended
  months ended   months ended   months ended
 
  September 30,   September 30,   September 30,   September 30,
 
    2007     2006   2007   2006
Per Class A Share – Diluted
  (Unaudited)   (Unaudited)   (Unaudited)   (Unaudited)
 
                               
Operating income
  $ 0.84   $ 0.83   $ 2.79   $ 2.42
Net realized gains (losses) on investments
  0.05   (0.01 )   0.12   (0.01 )
Income tax (expense) benefit on realized gains (losses)
  (0.02 )   0.00   (0.04 )   0.00
 
                               
Realized gains (losses), net of income taxes
  0.03   (0.01 )   0.08   (0.01 )
 
                               
Net income
  $ 0.87   $ 0.82   $ 2.87   $ 2.41
 
                               

3

ERIE INDEMNITY COMPANY

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF FINANCIAL POSITION

(amounts in thousands, except per share data)

                 
    September 30,   December 31,
    2007   2006
    (Unaudited)        
ASSETS
               
Investments
               
Fixed maturities
  $ 703,444   $ 836,738
Equity securities
               
Preferred stock
  103,299   133,401
Common stock
  121,240   117,246
Other invested assets
  279,824   235,672
 
               
Total investments
  1,207,807   1,323,057
Cash and cash equivalents
  32,157   60,241
Equity in Erie Family Life Insurance Company
  59,116   57,162
Premiums receivable from policyholders
  260,720   247,187
Receivables from affiliates
  1,176,013   1,220,058
Other assets
  139,415   131,656
 
               
Total assets
  $ 2,875,228   $ 3,039,361
 
               
LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY
               
Liabilities
               
Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses
  $ 1,015,083   $ 1,073,570
Unearned premiums
  444,175   424,282
Other liabilities
  369,729   379,661
 
               
Total liabilities
  1,828,987   1,877,513
Total shareholders’ equity
  1,046,241   1,161,848
 
               
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity
  $ 2,875,228   $ 3,039,361
 
               
Book value per share
  $ 17.50   $ 18.17
 
               
Shares outstanding
  59,782   63,952
 
               

4

ERIE INDEMNITY COMPANY
RECONCILIATION OF PROPERTY AND CASUALTY GROUP TO INDEMNITY RESULTS

                                 
    Three   Three   Nine   Nine
    months ended   months ended   months ended   months ended
    September 30,   September 30,   September 30,   September 30,
    2007   2006   2007   2006
(dollars in thousands)                                
Property and Casualty Group Insurance Underwriting Operations (SAP Basis)
  (Unaudited)   (Unaudited)   (Unaudited)   (Unaudited)
Direct underwriting results
                               
Direct written premium
  $ 981,539     $ 980,762     $ 2,927,965     $ 2,942,536  
 
                               
Premiums earned
    953,878       974,345       2,859,727       2,946,370  
 
                               
Loss and loss adjustment expenses incurred
    547,077       584,069       1,662,200       1,810,231  
Policy acquisition and other underwriting expenses
    272,741       272,980       811,512       858,322  
 
                               
Total losses and expenses
    819,818       857,049       2,473,712       2,668,553  
 
                               
Direct underwriting income
    134,060       117,296       386,015       277,817  
 
                               
Nonaffiliated reinsurance underwriting results
                               
Assumed voluntary-less ceded retrocessions
    (3,342 )     4,547       (6,892 )     9,691  
Assumed involuntary
    (5,802 )     (4,470 )     16,477       2,601  
Less: Ceded
    5,824       7,949       20,482       17,560  
 
                               
Nonaffiliated reinsurance underwriting loss
    (14,968 )     (7,872 )     (10,897 )     (5,268 )
 
                               
 
                               
Net Underwriting Income (SAP Basis)
  $ 119,092     $ 109,424     $ 375,118     $ 272,549  
 
                               
Erie Indemnity Insurance Underwriting Operations (SAP to GAAP Basis)
                               
Percent of pool assumed by the Indemnity Company
    5.50 %     5.50 %     5.50 %     5.50 %
 
                               
Indemnity preliminary underwriting income (SAP Basis)
  $ 6,550     $ 6,018     $ 20,631     $ 14,990  
Excess-of-loss changes to recoveries under the agreement
    0       (307 )     0       (845 )
SAP to GAAP adjustments
    (322 )     19       (861 )     (776 )
 
                               
Indemnity Underwriting Income before tax (GAAP Basis)
  $ 6,228     $ 5,730     $ 19,770     $ 13,369  
 
                               
Property & Casualty Group (SAP Basis)
                               
Net basis:
                               
Loss and LAE ratio
    58.6 %     60.8 %     58.8 %     61.9 %
Underwriting ratio
    27.3       27.3       27.0       28.6  
Policyholder dividends ratio
    0.2       0.0       0.2       0.1  
 
                               
Statutory combined ratio
    86.1       88.1       86.0       90.6  
 
                               
Adjusted combined ratio, excluding profit component
    82.3       83.7       81.8       86.1  
 
                               
Direct business:
                               
Loss ratio points from prior accident year reserve development – redundancy
    (7.8 )     (3.8 )     (7.5 )     (3.8 )
Loss ratio points from prior accident years from salvage and subrogation recoveries collected
    (1.0 )     (0.9 )     (2.0 )     (1.9 )
 
                               
Total loss ratio points from prior accident years
    (8.8 )     (4.7 )     (9.5 )     (5.7 )
 
                               
 
                               
Loss ratio points from catastrophes
    3.4       1.6       2.0       3.6  
 
                               
Erie Indemnity Company
                               
GAAP combined ratio
    88.0       89.2       87.3       91.7  
GAAP loss ratio points from catastrophes
    3.4       1.6       2.0       3.7  

SAP Basis represents statutory accounting principles as codified by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC).

5 Selected financial data of Erie Insurance Exchange:

The selected financial data below is derived from the Erie Insurance Exchange’s financial statements prepared in accordance with Statutory Accounting Principles. In the opinion of management, all adjustments consisting only of normal recurring accruals, considered necessary for a fair presentation have been included. The financial data set forth below is only a summary.

                                 
    Three   Three   Nine   Nine
    months ended   months ended   months ended   months ended
    September 30,   September 30,   September 30,   September 30,
    2007   2006   2007   2006
(in thousands)                                
 
  (Unaudited)   (Unaudited)   (Unaudited)   (Unaudited)
Statutory Accounting Basis
                               
Premiums earned
  $ 899,455   $ 916,761   $ 2,702,322   $ 2,785,195
Losses, LAE and underwriting expenses
  786,908   813,045   2,347,799   2,526,851
 
                               
Net underwriting income
  112,547   103,716   354,523   258,344
 
                               
Total investment income
  109,933   75,585   459,514   278,754
 
                               
Income before income taxes
  222,480   179,301   814,037   537,098
Federal income tax expense
  101,778   49,825   284,297   170,450
 
                               
Net income
  $ 120,702   $ 129,476   $ 529,740   $ 366,648
 
                               
                 
    As of   As of
    September 30,   December 31,
    2007   2006
(in thousands)                
Statutory Accounting Basis
  (Unaudited)        
Cash and invested assets
  $ 9,045,313   $ 8,494,655
Other assets
  1,110,488   1,021,489
 
               
Total assets
  $ 10,155,801   $ 9,516,144
 
               
Loss, loss adjustment expense and
               
unearned premium reserves
  $ 4,934,761   $ 4,993,365
Other liabilities
  469,988   435,683
 
               
Total liabilities
  5,404,749   5,429,048
 
               
Policyholders’ surplus
  4,751,052   4,087,096
 
               
Total liabilities and policyholders’ surplus
  $ 10,155,801   $ 9,516,144
 
               

6

Management fee revenue by major lines of business – Segment basis:

                                                 
    Three months   Three months           Nine months   Nine months    
    ended   ended           ended   ended    
    September 30,   September 30,   %   September 30,   September 30,   %
    2007   2006   Change   2007   2006   Change
(in thousands)                                                
Private passenger auto
  $120,242   $ 118,355   1.6 %   $ 347,611   $ 346,791   0.2 %
Homeowners
  51,589   50,278   2.6   140,248   137,491   2.0
Commercial multi-peril
  25,491   25,587   -0.4   84,371   84,585   -0.3
Commercial auto
  18,546   18,828   -1.5   61,463   61,936   -0.8
Workers’ compensation
  17,462   18,339   -4.8   61,758   63,275   -2.4
All other lines of business
  12,055   11,352   6.2   36,540   34,200   6.8
 
                                               
 
  245,385   242,739   1.1 %   731,991   728,278   0.5 %
Change in allowance for management fee returned on cancelled policies
  200   2,000           (1,300 )   500        
 
                                               
Management fee revenue, net of allowance
  $245,585   $ 244,739   0.3 %   $ 730,691   $ 728,778   0.3 %
 
                                               
Management fee rate
  25.00 %   24.75 %           25.00 %   24.75 %        
 
                                               

7

Growth rates of policies in force for Property and Casualty Group insurance operations by major lines of business:

                                                                 
    Private   12-mth.           12-mth.           12-mth.   Total   12-mth.
    Passenger   growth           growth   All Other   growth   Personal   growth
Date   Auto   rate   Homeowners   rate   Personal Lines   rate   Lines   rate
09/30/2005
    1,651,629       (1.8 )%     1,354,487       0.3 %     285,134       2.3 %     3,291,250       (0.6 )%
12/31/2005
    1,640,563       (1.8 )     1,353,912       0.5       286,604       2.7       3,281,079       (0.5 )
03/31/2006
    1,636,048       (1.6 )     1,356,885       1.0       289,964       3.6       3,282,897       (0.1 )
06/30/2006
    1,637,472       (1.3 )     1,366,633       1.2       294,409       4.2       3,298,514       0.2  
09/30/2006
    1,636,947       (0.9 )     1,373,763       1.4       298,361       4.6       3,309,071       0.5  
12/31/2006
    1,633,882       (0.4 )     1,377,965       1.8       301,497       5.2       3,313,344       1.0  
03/31/2007
    1,635,714       0.0       1,384,856       2.1       305,591       5.4       3,326,161       1.3  
06/30/2007
    1,644,561       0.4       1,398,034       2.3       311,761       5.9       3,354,356       1.7  
09/30/2007
    1,649,801       0.8       1,408,114       2.5       316,786       6.2       3,374,701       2.0  
                                                                                 
            12-mth.   CML*   12-mth.           12-mth.           12-mth.   Total   12-mth.
    CML*   growth   Multi-   growth   Workers’   growth   All Other   growth   CML*   growth
Date   Auto   rate   Peril   rate   Comp.   rate   CML* Lines   rate   Lines   rate
09/30/2005
    118,555       1.3 %     212,939       1.4 %     56,877       (5.0 )%     90,074       2.4 %     478,445       0.7 %
12/31/2005
    118,728       1.2       213,347       1.8       56,218       (4.6 )     90,227       2.7       478,520       1.0  
03/31/2006
    118,587       1.0       214,461       2.3       55,254       (4.7 )     90,301       2.8       478,603       1.2  
06/30/2006
    119,471       0.9       217,134       2.4       54,871       (4.4 )     91,568       2.9       483,044       1.3  
09/30/2006
    119,555       0.8       217,763       2.3       54,379       (4.4 )     92,687       2.9       484,384       1.2  
12/31/2006
    119,801       0.9       218,542       2.4       53,923       (4.1 )     92,687       2.7       484,953       1.3  
03/31/2007
    119,907       1.1       219,300       2.3       53,498       (3.2 )     92,857       2.8       485,562       1.5  
06/30/2007
    121,587       1.8       223,670       3.0       53,955       (1.7 )     94,612       3.3       493,824       2.2  
09/30/2007
    122,154       2.2       226,302       3.9       54,341       (0.1 )     96,167       3.8       498,964       3.0  
                 
            12-mth.
    Total All   growth
Date   Lines   rate
09/30/2005
    3,769,695       (0.5 )%
12/31/2005
    3,759,599       (0.3 )
03/31/2006
    3,761,500       0.1  
06/30/2006
    3,781,558       0.4  
09/30/2006
    3,793,455       0.6  
12/31/2006
    3,798,297       1.0  
03/31/2007
    3,811,723       1.3  
06/30/2007
    3,848,180       1.8  
09/30/2007
    3,873,665       2.1  

CML* = Commercial

8

Policy retention trends for Property and Casualty Group insurance operations by major lines of business:

                                                         
    Private                   CML*            
    Passenger   CML*           Multi-   Workers’   All Other    
Date   Auto   Auto   Homeowners   Peril   Comp.   Lines   Total All Lines
09/30/2005
    89.9 %     88.0 %     88.0 %     85.1 %     86.0 %     85.6 %     88.4 %
12/31/2005
    90.0       87.9       88.2       85.4       86.2       86.0       88.6  
03/31/2006
    90.1       88.0       88.6       85.9       86.0       86.2       88.8  
06/30/2006
    90.3       87.7       88.9       85.9       85.9       86.5       89.0  
09/30/2006
    90.5       87.8       89.2       86.0       85.8       86.7       89.2  
12/31/2006
    90.8       87.7       89.4       86.0       85.7       87.1       89.5  
03/31/2007
    91.0       88.0       89.7       86.1       86.2       87.2       89.7  
06/30/2007
    91.1       88.1       89.9       86.0       86.3       87.6       89.9  
09/30/2007
    91.3       88.2       90.1       86.1       86.8       87.5       90.0  

CML* = Commercial

9

Average premium per policy trends for Property and Casualty Group insurance operations by major lines of business:

                                                                 
    Private   12-mth.           12-mth.   All Other   12-mth.           12-mth.
    Passenger   percent           percent   Personal   percent   Total Personal   percent
Date   Auto   change   Homeowners   change   Lines   change   Lines   change
09/30/2005
  $ 1,179       0.3 %   $ 546       2.8 %   $ 347       3.3 %   $ 846       0.6 %
12/31/2005
    1,174       (1.3 )     543       (0.5 )     348       0.3       841       (1.6 )
03/31/2006
    1,161       (2.7 )     539       (2.4 )     349       0.6       832       (3.0 )
06/30/2006
    1,140       (3.9 )     535       (2.6 )     348       0.6       818       (3.9 )
09/30/2006
    1,122       (4.8 )     530       (2.9 )     348       0.3       806       (4.7 )
12/31/2006
    1,110       (5.5 )     526       (3.1 )     349       0.3       797       (5.2 )
03/31/2007
    1,100       (5.3 )     524       (2.8 )     349       0.0       791       (4.9 )
06/30/2007
    1,094       (4.0 )     520       (2.8 )     351       0.9       786       (3.9 )
09/30/2007
    1,093       (2.6 )     519       (2.1 )     352       1.1       783       (2.9 )
                                                                 
            12-mth.           12-mth.           12-mth.   Total   12-mth.
            percent           percent   All Other   percent   CML*   percent
Date   CML* Auto   change   Workers’ Comp.   change   CML* Lines   change   Lines   change
09/30/2005
  $ 2,789       0.8 %   $ 6,104       8.2 %   $ 1,694       1.2 %   $ 2,490       1.9 %
12/31/2005
    2,781       (0.3 )     6,212       6.7       1,705       (0.1 )     2,501       0.6  
03/31/2006
    2,778       (0.8 )     6,270       4.4       1,710       (0.6 )     2,501       (0.5 )
06/30/2006
    2,730       (1.8 )     6,143       0.7       1,676       (1.9 )     2,444       (2.4 )
09/30/2006
    2,705       (3.0 )     6,047       (0.9 )     1,669       (1.5 )     2,416       (3.0 )
12/31/2006
    2,687       (3.4 )     5,985       (3.7 )     1,657       (2.8 )     2,393       (4.3 )
03/31/2007
    2,664       (4.1 )     5,914       (5.7 )     1,641       (4.0 )     2,365       (5.4 )
06/30/2007
    2,627       (3.8 )     5,901       (3.9 )     1,616       (3.6 )     2,333       (4.5 )
09/30/2007
    2,600       (3.9 )     5,780       (4.4 )     1,592       (4.6 )     2,295       (5.0 )
                 
            12-mth.
    Total All   percent
Date   Lines   change
09/30/2005
  $ 1,055       1.2 %
12/31/2005
    1,052       (0.8 )
03/31/2006
    1,044       (2.1 )
06/30/2006
    1,026       (3.3 )
09/30/2006
    1,011       (4.2 )
12/31/2006
    1,001       (4.8 )
03/31/2007
    991       (5.1 )
06/30/2007
    984       (4.1 )
09/30/2007
    978       (3.3 )

CML* = Commercial

10

PROPERTY & CASUALTY GROUP ADJUSTED COMBINED RATIO BY
MAJOR LINES OF BUSINESS (SAP BASIS) – DIRECT BUSINESS

                                                                 
    Three Months Ended   Three Months Ended
    September 30, 2007   September 30, 2006
 
          Prior Year**           Current           Prior Year**           Current
 
          Reserve           Accident           Reserve           Accident
 
          Development           Year           Development           Year
 
  Calendar*   Deficiency   Catastrophe   Excluding   Calendar*   Deficiency   Catastrophe   Excluding
 
  Year   (Redundancy)   Losses   Catastrophes   Year   (Redundancy)   Losses   Catastrophes
 
                                   
Private Passenger Auto
  79.0 %   -10.4 %   0.7 %   88.7 %   83.8 %   -2.0 %   0.3 %   85.5 %
Homeowners
  87.0 %   -1.6 %   2.2 %   86.4 %   85.8 %   -2.4 %   0.5 %   87.7 %
Other Personal Lines
  78.3 %   -0.4 %   0.2 %   78.5 %   101.7 %   14.5 %   0.3 %   86.9 %
Total Personal
  81.3 %   -7.5 %   3.0 %   85.8 %   85.1 %   -1.5 %   1.1 %   85.5 %
Commercial Multi-Peril
  94.0 %   -9.6 %   0.2 %   103.4 %   77.6 %   -3.4 %   0.4 %   80.6 %
Commercial Auto
  70.3 %   -17.7 %   0.1 %   87.9 %   81.4 %   -6.6 %   0.1 %   87.9 %
Workers’ Compensation
  84.9 %   -1.7 %   0.0 %   86.6 %   84.3 %   -16.3 %   0.0 %   100.6 %
Other Commercial Lines
  73.3 %   10.7 %   0.0 %   62.6 %   63.6 %   -25.2 %   0.0 %   88.8 %
Total Commercial
  83.6 %   -8.4 %   0.4 %   91.6 %   79.7 %   -9.3 %   0.5 %   88.5 %
Grand Total – Direct Business Only
  81.7 %   -7.8 %   3.4 %   86.1 %   83.3 %   -3.8 %   1.6 %   85.5 %
            Nine Months Ended               Nine Months Ended        
            September 30, 2007                   September 30, 2006        
         
 
          Prior Year**           Current           Prior Year**           Current
 
          Reserve           Accident           Reserve           Accident
 
          Development           Year           Development           Year
 
  Calendar*   Deficiency   Catastrophe   Excluding   Calendar*   Deficiency   Catastrophe   Excluding
 
  Year   (Redundancy)   Losses   Catastrophes   Year   (Redundancy)   Losses   Catastrophes
 
                               
Private Passenger Auto
  79.6 %   -11.4 %   0.3 %   90.7 %   89.1 %   -2.9 %   0.4 %   91.6 %
Homeowners
  84.9 %   -2.4 %   1.4 %   85.9 %   86.7 %   -4.3 %   2.5 %   88.5 %
Other Personal Lines
  85.6 %   4.2 %   0.1 %   81.3 %   90.2 %   8.0 %   0.2 %   82.0 %
Total Personal
  81.3 %   -8.3 %   1.8 %   87.8 %   88.5 %   -2.9 %   3.1 %   88.3 %
Commercial Multi-Peril
  90.4 %   -4.6 %   0.1 %   94.9 %   84.0 %   -4.2 %   0.5 %   87.7 %
Commercial Auto
  73.5 %   -13.6 %   0.1 %   87.0 %   79.5 %   -4.4 %   0.1 %   83.8 %
Workers’ Compensation
  88.3 %   1.1 %   0.0 %   87.2 %   79.9 %   -9.5 %   0.0 %   89.4 %
Other Commercial Lines
  55.9 %   -4.7 %   0.0 %   60.6 %   71.1 %   -9.3 %   0.0 %   80.4 %
Total Commercial
  82.8 %   -5.6 %   0.2 %   88.2 %   80.8 %   -6.1 %   0.6 %   86.3 %
Grand Total – Direct Business Only
  81.8 %   -7.5 %   2.0 %   87.3 %   86.2 %   -3.8 %   3.6 %   86.4 %
*The calendar year combined ratio represents the adjusted statutory combined ratio, which removes the profit component of the management fee earned by the Company.
                               
**The prior accident year reserve development does not include the effects of salvage and subrogation recoveries.
                                       

11