EX-99.(C)(2) 3 dex99c2.htm FINANCIAL ANALYSIS PRESENTATION MATERIALS, DATED JUNE 15, 2007 Financial analysis presentation materials, dated June 15, 2007

Exhibit (c)(2)

 

   CONFIDENTIAL      15 JUNE 2007

PRESENTATION TO THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS


Project Eagle

 

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     PROJECT EAGLE

 

Disclaimer

The information herein has been prepared by Lazard based upon information supplied by the Company or publicly available, and portions of the information herein may be based upon certain statements, estimates and forecasts provided by the Company with respect to the anticipated future performance of the Company. We have relied upon the accuracy and completeness of the foregoing information, and have not assumed any responsibility for any independent verification of such information or any independent valuation or appraisal of any of the assets or liabilities of the Company, or any other entity, or concerning solvency or fair value of the Company or any other entity. With respect to financial forecasts, we have assumed that they have been reasonably prepared on bases reflecting the best currently available estimates and judgments of management of the Company as to the future financial performance of the Company; we assume no responsibility for and express no view as to such forecasts or the assumptions on which they are based. The information set forth herein is based upon economic, monetary, market and other conditions as in effect on, and the information made available to us as of, the date hereof, unless indicated otherwise. These materials and the information contained herein are confidential and may not be disclosed publicly or made available to third parties without the prior written consent of Lazard; provided, however, that you may disclose to any and all persons the U.S. federal income tax treatment and tax structure of the transaction described herein and the portions of these materials that relate to such tax treatment or structure. Lazard is acting as investment banker to the Board of Directors of the Company, and will not be responsible for and will not provide any tax, accounting, actuarial, legal or other specialist advice.

 

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     PROJECT EAGLE

 

Table of Contents

 

I

   CURRENT SITUATION    1

II

   FINANCIAL ANALYSIS    10

APPENDIX

  
  

A      Additional Valuation Materials

   16

 

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   PROJECT EAGLE

 

I Current Situation


 

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PROJECT EAGLE    I    CURRENT SITUATION

 

Timeline of Recent Events

 

DATE

 

EVENT DESCRIPTION

March 28, 2007

 

•   Board of Directors meets and decides to proceed with exploration of potential value of the Company

 

•   Lazard presents its preliminary thoughts

April 9, 2007

 

•   Board of Directors meets and approves latest management long range projections

 

•   Lazard discusses proposed timing and approach to counterparties

April 12, 2007

 

•   Lazard initiates contact with five financial sponsors (including one two-party consortium)

April 23, 2007

 

•   Each financial sponsor executes a confidentiality agreement and begins initial diligence

Week of April 30, 2007

 

•   Management presentations to Fortress/Centerbridge and Whitehall

Week of May 7, 2007

 

•   Two financial sponsors withdraw from process

May 21, 2007

 

•   Tracinda announces intentions to acquire Bellagio and City Center and pursue strategic alternatives for the rest of MGM MIRAGE

May 25, 2007

 

•   Fortress/Centerbridge submits initial indication of interest at $63.00

 

•   Whitehall submits initial indication of interest at $62.00

May 29, 2007

 

•   Board of Directors reviews initial indications and decides to proceed

 

•   Both bidders invited to submit final bids on June 11, 2007

June 9, 2007

 

•   Referendum for table games at Charles Town fails

June 11, 2007

 

•   Fortress/Centerbridge submits bid of $63.60

 

•   Whitehall submits offer of $65.00

June 14, 2007

 

•   Fortress/Centerbridge submits revised bid of $66.00

 

•   Board of Directors meets to review bids

 

•   Fortress/Centerbridge increases bid to $67.00

 

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PROJECT EAGLE    I    CURRENT SITUATION

 

Summary of Fortress/Centerbridge Proposal

 

TERMS

  

DESCRIPTION

OFFER PRICE

  

•   $67.00 cash per share (implies $6.1 billion of equity value)

  

•   31% premium to closing share price as of June 13, 2007 ($51.23)

  

•   30% premium to one-month average closing price ($51.60)

  

•   63% premium to one-year average closing price ($41.01)

  

•   Implies approximately $9.2 billion enterprise value as of December 31, 2007

  

•   13.7x EV/ 2007 EBITDA

  

•   11.6x EV/ 2008 EBITDA

FINANCING

  

•   Fully committed debt financing from Deutsche Bank and Wachovia

  

•   $5.1 billion of senior secured credit facilities (including partially drawn $500 million revolver)

  

•   $2.0 billion unsecured term loan

  

•   29% of purchase price funded through equity (minimum 25% of capitalization)

  

•   $2,100 million of equity commitment from Fortress

  

•   $600 million of equity commitment from Centerbridge

REGULATORY

  

•   Willing to submit top five executives of Fortress and top four executives of Centerbridge for approval

CLOSING

  

•   12 months from signing plus up to 120 days under certain conditions

BREAKUP FEE

  

•   $100 million within 45 day go-shop period; $200 million thereafter

 

•   $200 million reverse breakup fee

MANAGEMENT

  

•   Terms to be negotiated post-signing

 

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PROJECT EAGLE    I    CURRENT SITUATION

 

Fortress/Centerbridge Proposed Financing Structure

($ in millions)

 

    

% of

Total

    Leverage at 6/30/08      

Sources

     LTM     NTM      

Senior secured term loan

   48.9 %   6.3 x   5.5 x   $ 4,600

Senior secured revolving credit facility ($500 max)

   1.1 %   0.1 x   0.1 x     100

Unsecured term loan

   21.3 %   2.7 x   2.4 x     2,000

Fortress equity

   22.3 %         2,100

Centerbridge equity

   6.4 %         600

Total

   100.0 %   9.1 x   8.0 x   $ 9,400

 

Uses

    

Purchase 90.9 million Eagle shares at $67.00

   $ 6,088

Projected debt at June 30, 2008

     3,017

Estimated transaction fees

     295

Total

   $ 9,400

Note: Assumes $734 million of LTM EBITDA and $838 million of NTM EBITDA at June 30, 2008. EBITDA and projected debt balance based on Eagle management projections.

 

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PROJECT EAGLE    I    CURRENT SITUATION

 

Five Year Stock Performance History

Gaming stocks have performed very well over the past five years and are currently at relative highs. Eagle has significantly outperformed both its land-based and riverboat peers during the same period.

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Source: Factset.

 


(1) Land-based composite is average of AZR, CZR, HET, MBG, MGM and STN. AZR, CZR, HET, MBG and STN are excluded from the index one day prior to the first public announcement of their respective mergers.
(2) Riverboat composite is average of AGY, ASCA, ISLE and PNK. AGY is excluded from the index one day prior to the public announcement of its acquisition by Eagle. BYD is excluded due to the hybrid nature of its business model.

 

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PROJECT EAGLE    I    CURRENT SITUATION

 

Stock Performance Since January 1

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Source: FactSet, Mergermarket.com and public news

Note: Starting price is December 29, 2006 closing price as January 3, 2007 was the first trading day of the year. STN not depicted as stock price was affected by initial offer on December 4, 2006.

 

(1) Riverboat composite includes ASCA, ISLE and PNK.

 

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PROJECT EAGLE    I    CURRENT SITUATION

 

Summary Management Projections

($ in millions)

The following projections were originally provided by Eagle management in March 2007. At the request of management, the projections were subsequently adjusted to reflect the following events:

 

 

A two year delay of table games at Charles Town from 2008 to 2010

 

 

Incremental insurance premium savings of $10 million per year beginning August 1, 2007

 

     Fiscal Years Ending December 31,  
     2006A     2007P     2008P     2009P     2010P     2011P  
Income statement             

Revenue

   $ 2,245     $ 2,486     $ 2,845     $ 3,123     $ 3,436     $ 3,665  

growth

       10.7 %     14.4 %     9.8 %     10.1 %     6.6 %

Pre-FAS EBITDA

   $ 629     $ 673     $ 794     $ 881     $ 994     $ 1,067  

margin

     28.0 %     27.1 %     27.9 %     28.2 %     28.9 %     29.1 %

Adjusted EPS (1)

   $ 2.08     $ 2.13     $ 2.65     $ 3.11     $ 3.70     $ 4.26  

Fully diluted shares outstanding

     86.6       88.0       89.3       90.6       91.9       93.2  
Balance sheet             

Total debt

   $ 2,829     $ 3,074     $ 2,930     $ 2,663     $ 2,226     $ 1,722  

Less: excess cash

     (9 )     0       0       0       0       0  
                                                

Net debt

   $ 2,821     $ 3,074     $ 2,930     $ 2,663     $ 2,226     $ 1,722  
Ratios             

Net debt / pre-FAS EBITDA

     4.5 x     4.6 x     3.7 x     3.0 x     2.2 x     1.6 x

Pre-FAS EBITDA / gross interest

     3.1       3.1       3.5       4.2       5.3       6.9  

(1) Excludes gain on sale of discontinued operations, FAS 123 expense, goodwill impairment, gain/loss on disposal of assets, other non-recurring items and loss on early extinguishment of debt.

 

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PROJECT EAGLE    I    CURRENT SITUATION

 

Summary Analyst Projections

($ in millions)

Lazard reviewed all publicly available analyst projections for Eagle as of June 13, 2007.

 

 

2009 projected EBITDA in the analyst case is $50 million less than the comparable figure in the management case

 

 

Given the lack of a meaningful group of estimates for 2010 and 2011, Lazard assumed EBITDA growth and capital expenditures equal to management’s projections

 

     2007P     2008P     2009P     2010P     2011P  
Analyst Case           

Revenue

   $ 2,484     $ 2,737     $ 2,961       —         —    

EBITDA Margin

     27.2 %     27.5 %     28.1 %     —         —    

EBITDA (pre FAS 123)

     674       753       831       937       1,006  

Capital Expenditures

     510       292       155       176       178  
Management Case           

Revenue

   $ 2,486     $ 2,845     $ 3,123     $ 3,436     $ 3,665  

EBITDA Margin

     27.1 %     27.9 %     28.2 %     28.9 %     29.1 %

EBITDA (pre FAS 123)

     673       794       881       994       1,067  

Capital Expenditures

     503       290       244       176       178  

Source: Wall Street research and Eagle management.

 

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PROJECT EAGLE    I    CURRENT SITUATION

 

Analysts Views on Eagle’s Valuation

($ in millions except per share amounts)

 

                    Projected Pre-FAS 123 EBITDA

Date

  

Firm

  

Current Rating

   Price Target    FY07P    FY08P

June 11, 2007

   Bear Stearns    Market Weight    $ 56.00    $ 673.8    $ 710.3

June 11, 2007

   Brean Murray    Buy      55.00      N/A      N/A

April 26, 2007

   CIBC    Outperform      54.00      684.9      794.2

June 11, 2007

   Coker & Palmer    Buy      60.00      680.4      741.0

April 26, 2007

   Davenport    Buy      53.00      677.4      780.9

April 26, 2007

   Deutsche Bank    Hold      48.00      678.0      706.0

April 26, 2007

   Goldman Sachs    Neutral      50.00      681.2      764.6

June 11, 2007

   Jefferies    Hold      52.00      674.1      757.6

June 11, 2007

   Lehman Brothers    Overweight      54.00      672.2      772.6

June 11, 2007

   Morgan Joseph    Hold      N/A      671.3      758.2

June 11, 2007

   Nollenberger    Neutral      N/A      N/A      N/A

May 15, 2007

   Prudential    Overweight      58.00      673.7      806.6

June 6, 2007

   Sterne Agee    Buy      60.00      669.1      767.7

June 11, 2007

   Susquehanna    Positive      N/A      666.1      734.1

May 15, 2007

   Wachovia    Outperform      53.00-55.00      664.3      700.5

June 8, 2007

   Wall Street Strategies    Buy      59.00      N/A      N/A
              

Average

Price Target

   Average EBITDA Estimate
                  FY07E    FY08E
         $ 54.85    $ 674.3    $ 753.4

Source: Publicly available Wall Street research.

 

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PROJECT EAGLE    I    CURRENT SITUATION

 

Analyst Commentary

 

GROWTH FUELED BY STRONG, LOW RISK PIPELINE   

•   “With key capital growth projects in Lawrenceburg, Charles Town and Hollywood Slots at Penn National Races, the company is positioned for growth in stable markets.”

 

CIBC World Markets, April 26, 2007

  

 

•   “...Eagle’s attractive out-year free cash flow growth, driven by its development pipeline of projects in what would be characterized as low execution risk gaming markets in PA, ME, & WV...”

 

Bear, Stearns & Co., June 11, 2007

  

 

•   “Eagle has a very impressive and relatively low risk development pipeline.”

 

Davenport, April 26, 2007

MINIMAL IMPACT FROM WEST VIRGINIA REFERENDUM   

•   “...we estimate the value of table games at the Charles Town property as $2/share.”

 

Bear, Stearns & Co., June 11, 2007

  

 

•   “...Eagle has a bright future ahead of it with its multiple projects going forward despite the minor setback in West Virginia.”

 

Jefferies & Company, June 11, 2007

  

 

•   “While we believe passage of table games at Charles Town would have been a positive event for Eagle, we estimate that it would have had minimal impact to the company’s valuation.”

 

Lehman Brothers, June 11, 2007

OPTIMISTIC OUTLOOK   

•   “...due to Eagle’s solid fundamentals and strong development pipeline we are increasing our 12-month target price to $55”

 

Brean Murray, Carrat & Co., June 11, 2007

  

 

•   “Our continued optimism towards Eagle is based on its step function growth through 2009 as well as potential legislative changes that would increase the overall profitability of the company.”

 

Sterne Agee, June 6, 2007

TAKEOVER SPECULATION   

•   “…with the present activity in the private transaction market, we do not exclude Eagle as a potential take-out target, which we believe provides valuation support for the shares.”

 

CIBC World Markets, April 26, 2007

  

 

•   “We think Eagle can be considered a takeout candidate. Its significant free cash flow and predictable pipeline should be attractive to potential suitors in the current M&A market. Management noted the company would have high expectations in terms of a purchase price. We believe the company would command $60+ in a takeout scenario.”

 

Davenport, April 26, 2007

 

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PROJECT EAGLE

II Financial Analysis


 

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PROJECT EAGLE    II FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

 

Analysis at Various Prices

($ and shares in millions)

 

         

6/13/07

Close

   

52-Week

High

                   

Per Share Purchase Price

      $ 51.23     $ 54.38     $ 65.00     $ 66.00     $ 67.00  

Premium to Close on 6/13/2007

   $ 51.23      0.0 %     6.1 %     26.9 %     28.8 %     30.8 %

Premium/(Discount) to 52-Week High

     54.38      (5.8 %)     0.0 %     19.5 %     21.4 %     23.2 %

Basic Shares Outstanding

        85.5       85.5       85.5       85.5       85.5  

Share Growth in 2007

        0.7       0.7       0.7       0.7       0.7  

Options Dilution

        4.4       4.6       5.3       5.4       5.4  
                                           

Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding

        90.5       90.8       91.4       91.5       91.5  

Equity Value

      $ 4,637     $ 4,936     $ 5,942     $ 6,037     $ 6,131  

Plus: Total Debt (as of December 31, 2007)

      $ 3,074     $ 3,074     $ 3,074     $ 3,074     $ 3,074  

Less: Cash in Excess of $160 Million (as of December 31, 2007)

        0       0       0       0       0  
                                           

Enterprise Value

      $ 7,711     $ 8,009     $ 9,016     $ 9,111     $ 9,205  
                                           

2007P EBITDA (pre FAS 123)

      $ 673     $ 673     $ 673     $ 673     $ 673  

2008P EBITDA (pre FAS 123)

      $ 794     $ 794     $ 794     $ 794     $ 794  
                                           

Enterprise Value / 2007P EBITDA (pre FAS 123)

        11.5 x     11.9 x     13.4 x     13.5 x     13.7 x
                                           

Enterprise Value / 2008P EBITDA (pre FAS 123)

        9.7       10.1       11.4       11.5       11.6  
                                           

Source: Eagle management and SEC filings.

 

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PROJECT EAGLE    II FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

 

Valuation Summary

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(1) Leveraged buyout analysis included only for comparison purposes, not a valuation metric.
(2) Trading history included only for comparison purposes, not a valuation metric.

 

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PROJECT EAGLE    II FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

 

Selected Gaming Transactions Over $1bn

($ in millions)

 

Ann.

Date

  

Acquiror

  

Target

   Enterprise
Value
   Equity
Value
   EV / LTM
EBITDA
    EV / NFY
EBITDA
   

Adj.

EV / LTM
EBITDA

   

Adj.

EV / NFY
EBITDA

 

4/23/07

  

GS Whitehall Street Real Estate Funds

  

American Casino and Entertainment Properties

   $ 1,300      NA    NA     12.7 x   NA     11.1 x(1)

2/26/07

  

Fertitta Colony Partners

  

Station Casinos

     8,790    $ 5,324    16.0 x   13.6     13.8 x(2)   11.7 (2)

12/19/06

  

Apollo / TPG

  

Harrah’s Entertainment

     28,619      17,704    11.5     10.3     10.9 (3)   9.7 (3)

5/19/06

  

Columbia Sussex

  

Aztar Corp

     2,694      2,087    12.0     11.7      

5/1/06

  

Management/Investor Group

  

Kerzner International (4)

     3,842      3,410    18.2     15.2      

11/3/04

  

Penn National Gaming, Inc.

  

Argosy Gaming Company

     2,200      1,395    8.5     8.3      

9/27/04

  

Colony Capital

  

Harrah’s/Caesars Assets (5)

     1,240      NM    8.5     8.3      

7/14/04

  

Harrah’s Entertainment, Inc.

  

Caesars Entertainment

     9,856      5,618    9.2     8.7      

6/16/04

  

MGM Mirage

  

Mandalay Resort Group

     7,623      4,801    10.7     9.6      

2/9/04

  

Boyd Gaming

  

Coast Casinos

     1,248      820    8.0     7.7      

9/11/03

  

Harrah’s Entertainment

  

Horseshoe Gaming (6)

     1,549      915    8.8     7.7      

2/23/00

  

MGM Grand, Inc.

  

Mirage Resorts

     6,700      4,395    10.0     9.5      
           Median    10.0 x   9.6 x    
           Mean    11.0     10.3      

Source: Company filings, Wall Street research and news.

 


(1) Enterprise value excludes approximately $170 million of undeveloped land value.
(2) Enterprise value excludes approximately $1,560 million of undeveloped land value.
(3) Enterprise value excludes approximately $1,208 million of undeveloped land value.
(4) Kerzner is a Bahamian corporation and pays no income tax.
(5) Harrah’s East Chicago, Harrah’s Tunica, Atlantic City Hilton, Bally’s Tunica.
(6) Enterprise value includes approximately $55 million for construction in progress at Hammond and $20 million for estimated seller's tax costs.

 

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PROJECT EAGLE    II FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

 

Comparable Companies Analysis

($ in millions except per share data)

 

           Last
Quarter
   Stock Price
6/13/2007
   % of 52
wk high
    Equity
Value
   Net
Debt &
Other
   Enterprise
Value
   EBITDA    EV / EBITDA     LTM
EBITDA
Margin (1)
    LTM to ‘08P
EBITDA
Growth
    Net Debt/
LTM
EBITDA
 

Company

                      LTM    CY07P    CY08P    LTM     CY07P     CY08P        

Boyd Gaming

     3/31/2007    $ 49.79    92.1 %   $ 4,414    $ 2,241    $ 6,655    $ 645    $ 635    $ 681    10.3 x   10.5 x   9.8 x   25.5 %   5.4 %   3.5 x

Ameristar Casinos

   (2 )   3/31/2007      32.87    94.6 %     1,916      1,456      3,372      350      360      370    9.6     9.4     9.1     26.7 %   5.9 %   4.2  

Pinnacle Entertainment

     3/31/2007      28.41    76.0 %     1,749      278      2,027      188      186      246    10.8     10.9     8.2     20.7 %   30.9 %   1.5  

Isle of Capri Casinos

   (3 )   1/28/2007      22.27    70.0 %     694      994      1,688      213      203      218    7.9     8.3     7.7     21.4 %   2.6 %   4.7  
          MEDIAN    84.0 %   $ 1,832    $ 1,225    $ 2,700    $ 281    $ 282    $ 308    10.0 x   9.9 x   8.7 x   23.4 %   5.7 %   3.8 x
          MEAN    83.2 %     2,193      1,242      3,436      349      346      379    9.7     9.8     8.7     23.5 %   11.2 %   3.4  

Eagle

     3/31/2007      51.23    94.2 %     4,522      2,623      7,144      637      674      753    11.2     10.6     9.5     27.0 %   18.2 %   4.1  

Source: SEC filings and I/B/E/S consensus projections. Share prices and other data from FactSet.

Note: EBITDA is shown before stock compensation expense. Where applicable, EBITDA and net debt are adjusted to reflect a company’s attributable portion of a joint venture. All in-the-money convertible debt is assumed to convert into additional shares. Enterprise value is adjusted for insurance proceeds.

 

(1) EBITDA margin calculated using net revenue and excludes net revenue and EBITDA associated with management contracts, where applicable.
(2) Pro forma for acquisition of Resorts East Chicago.
(3) Will restate results for FY ending April 30, 2006. Pro forma for acquisition of Casino Aztar in Caruthersville, MO.

 

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PROJECT EAGLE    II FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

 

Summary Discounted Cash Flow Analysis – Management Case

Lazard performed a four-year discounted cash flow analysis of both management and analyst projections as of December 31, 2007.

 

     Fiscal Years Ending December 31,  
     2006A     2007P     2008P     2009P     2010P     2011P  

Sales

   $ 2,244.5     $ 2,485.6     $ 2,844.7     $ 3,122.5     $ 3,436.4     $ 3,664.5  

% Growth

     NM       10.7 %     14.4 %     9.8 %     10.1 %     6.6 %

EBITDA (Pre-FAS 123 Expense)

     629.2       673.1       793.9       881.3       993.6       1,066.5  

% Margin

     28.0 %     27.1 %     27.9 %     28.2 %     28.9 %     29.1 %

% Growth

     NM       7.0 %     18.0 %     11.0 %     12.7 %     7.3 %

EBITDA (Post-FAS 123 Expense)

     608.7       646.7       761.7       843.3       955.6       1,028.4  

Depreciation and Amortization

     (158.5 )     (144.2 )     (172.1 )     (189.8 )     (217.3 )     (227.1 )

EBIT

     450.2       502.4       589.5       653.5       738.3       801.3  

Taxes

     (190.9 )     (217.0 )     (249.8 )     (277.3 )     (312.9 )     (338.2 )

Rate

     42.4 %     43.2 %     42.4 %     42.4 %     42.4 %     42.2 %
                                                

Unlevered Net Income

   $ 259.3     $ 285.4     $ 339.8     $ 376.1     $ 425.4     $ 463.2  

Cash Flow Items

            

Plus: Depreciation and Amortization

       $ 172.1     $ 189.8     $ 217.3     $ 227.1  

Less: Maintenance Capital Expenditures

         (59.8 )     (69.1 )     (75.9 )     (78.2 )

Less: Project Capital Expenditures

         (230.0 )     (175.0 )     (100.0 )     (100.0 )

Plus: FAS 123 Expense

         32.2       38.1       38.1       38.1  

Less: Pocono Payment

         (7.0 )     (6.5 )     (6.0 )     (3.5 )

Unlevered Free Cash Flow

       $ 247.4     $ 353.4     $ 498.8     $ 546.6  
                                    

% Margin

         8.7 %     11.3 %     14.5 %     14.9 %
                                    

% Growth

         NM       42.9 %     41.1 %     9.6 %

Source: Eagle management.

 

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PROJECT EAGLE    II FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

 

Summary Discounted Cash Flow Sensitivity Analysis

The following chart depicts the implied value per fully diluted share of Eagle at December 31, 2007 using both management and analyst projections.

 

 

Assumes net debt of $3.1 billion at December 31, 2007

 

Discount Rate   

Implied Value Per Share

Management Case

  

Implied Value Per Share

Analyst Case

     9.0x    10.0x    11.0x    9.0x    10.0x    11.0x
9.0%    $ 55.65    $ 63.53    $ 71.42    $ 51.05    $ 58.48    $ 65.92
10.0%      52.73      60.33      67.93      48.29      55.46      62.62
11.0%      49.94      57.27      64.60      45.66      52.56      59.47

Note Includes approximately $1 of value attributable to the Company’s federal cash tax benefit generated by deductible goodwill relating to Argosy Lawrenceburg and Argosy Joliet. Lazard is not a tax adviser and Eagle management provided all tax related information.

 

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PROJECT EAGLE

Appendix


 

LOGO


PROJECT EAGLE

A Additional Valuation Materials


 

LOGO


PROJECT EAGLE    A ADDITIONAL VALUATION MATERIALS

 

Summary Leveraged Buyout Sensitivity Analysis

Lazard performed a four-year leveraged buyout analysis of management projections as of December 31, 2007. Lazard then analyzed the impact of several variables on Eagle’s implied value per share.

 

 

Variables that had the most impact include exit multiples (as of December 31, 2011) and target IRR

 

 

Variables that had a lesser impact include initial leverage, interest rates on acquisition debt and management upside participation

 

 

Assumptions:

 

   

Initial leverage of 9.5x PF 2007 EBITDA

 

   

Bank rate: L+2.25% on 5.25x PF 2007 EBITDA

 

   

Bond rate: 9.000% on 4.25x PF 2007 EBITDA

 

   

Management option pool of 8.000%

 

Target IRR

  

Implied Value Per Share

Management Case

  

Implied Value Per Share

Analyst Case

     9.0x    10.0x    11.0x    9.0x    10.0x    11.0x

17.0%

   $ 54.43    $ 60.14    $ 65.85    $ 50.52    $ 55.90    $ 61.28

19.5%

     52.86      58.08      63.31      49.28      54.21      59.14

22.0%

     51.44      56.24      61.04      48.18      52.70      57.22

Note Includes approximately $1 of value attributable to the Company’s federal cash tax benefit generated by deductible goodwill relating to Argosy Lawrenceburg and Argosy Joliet. Lazard is not a tax adviser and Eagle management provided all tax related information.

 

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PROJECT EAGLE    A ADDITIONAL VALUATION MATERIALS

 

Comparable Companies Analysis – Other Gaming Operators

($ in millions except per share data)

 

          

Last
Quarter

  

Stock Price
6/13/07

  

% of 52
wk high

   

Equity
Value

  

Net

Debt &
Other

  

Enterprise
Value

   EBITDA    EV / EBITDA    

LTM
EBITDA
Margin (1)

   

LTM to ‘08P
EBITDA
Growth

   

Net Debt/
LTM
EBITDA

 

Company

                      LTM    CY07P    CY08P    LTM     CY07P     CY08P        

MGM MIRAGE

   (2 )   3/31/07    $ 82.03    97.6 %   $ 24,069    $ 12,662    $ 36,731    $ 2,544    $ 2,564    $ 2,820    14.4 x   14.3 x   13.0 x   33.4 %   10.8 %   5.0 x

Las Vegas Sands

     3/31/07      77.48    70.8 %     27,508      3,694      31,202      759      889      1,767    NM     NM     NM     32.5 %   132.9 %   4.9  

Wynn Resorts

     3/31/07      96.18    83.9 %     10,762      1,250      12,012      463      650      714    NM     NM     NM     25.9 %   54.0 %   2.7  

Trump Entertainment Resorts

     3/31/07      14.28    60.0 %     578      1,415      1,993      181      185      218    11.0     10.8     9.2     17.7 %   20.5 %   7.8  

Source: SEC filings and I/B/E/S consensus projections. Share prices and other data from FactSet.

Note: EBITDA is shown before stock compensation expense. Where applicable, EBITDA and net debt are adjusted to reflect a company’s attributable portion of a joint venture. All in-the-money convertible debt is assumed to convert into additional shares. Enterprise value is adjusted for insurance proceeds.

 

(1) EBITDA margin calculated using net revenue and excludes net revenue and EBITDA associated with management contracts, where applicable.
(2) Pro forma for sale of Primm Valley, Colorado Belle and Edgewater properties.

 

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PROJECT EAGLE    A ADDITIONAL VALUATION MATERIALS

 

Weighted Average Cost of Capital Analysis

($ in millions)

 

Company

   Stock Price
6/13/2007
   Equity
Value
   Net
Debt
   Enterprise
Value
   Net Debt/
Total Cap.
    Net Debt/
Equity Value
    Levered
Beta (1)
   Unlevered
Beta (2)

Boyd Gaming

   $ 49.79    $ 4,414    $ 2,241    $ 6,655    33.7 %   50.8 %   1.31    0.98

Ameristar Casinos

     32.87      1,916      1,456      3,372    43.2 %   76.0 %   1.24    0.84

Pinnacle Entertainment

     28.41      1,749      278      2,027    13.7 %   15.9 %   1.49    1.36

Isle of Capri Casinos

     22.27      694      994      1,688    58.9 %   143.1 %   1.44    0.80
              Mean    37.4 %   71.4 %   1.37    1.00
              Median    38.4 %   63.4 %   1.37    0.91

Eagle

   $ 51.23    $ 4,522    $ 2,623    $ 7,144    36.7 %   58.0 %     

 

Net Debt/
Total Capital
   Net Debt/
Equity
   

Median

Unlevered
Beta

    Levered
Beta (3)
    Cost of
Equity (4)
 
20.0%    25.0 %   0.91     1.04     13.4 %
30.0%    42.9 %   0.91     1.14     14.1 %
40.0%    66.7 %   0.91     1.26     15.0 %
50.0%    100.0 %   0.91     1.43     16.2 %
60.0%    150.0 %   0.91     1.70     18.1 %
Weighted Average Cost of Capital with Pre-Tax /After Tax Cost of Debt Of:  
6.0%    6.5 %   7.0 %   7.5 %   8.0 %
3.5%    3.7 %   4.0 %   4.3 %   4.6 %
11.4%    11.5 %   11.5 %   11.6 %   11.6 %
10.9%    11.0 %   11.1 %   11.1 %   11.2 %
10.4%    10.5 %   10.6 %   10.7 %   10.8 %
9.8%    10.0 %   10.1 %   10.3 %   10.4 %
9.3%    9.5 %   9.6 %   9.8 %   10.0 %

 

Assumptions    
Risk-Free Rate (Rf)   5.20 %   Based on 10-year Treasury yield as of June 13, 2007. Source: Bloomberg
Equity Risk Premium   7.10 %   Based on simple difference of historical arithmetic mean returns from 1926 - 2006
Equity Size Premium (5)   0.81 %   Based on market capitalization between $4,098 million and $ 7,777 million
Assumed Marginal Corporate Tax Rate   42.4 %   Based on Management’s estimates

Source: Company filings, Wall Street research and news.

 


(1) Predicted Beta, Barra Beta Book May 31, 2007.
(2) Unlevered Beta = Levered Beta / [1 + (1 - Tax Rate) * Net Debt / Equity Value].
(3) Levered Beta = Unlevered Beta * [1 + (1 - Tax Rate) * Net Debt / Equity Value].
(4) Cost of equity = Rf + Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium + Equity Size Premium.
(5) Based on Morningstar 2007 data.

 

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