RESERVE FOR CLAIMS AND CLAIM EXPENSES

The Company believes the most significant accounting judgment made by management is its estimate of claims and claim expense reserves. Claims and claim expense reserves represent estimates, including actuarial and statistical projections at a given point in time, of the ultimate settlement and administration costs for unpaid claims and claim expenses arising from the insurance and reinsurance contracts the Company sells. The Company establishes its claims and claim expense reserves by taking claims reported to the Company by insureds and ceding companies, but which have not yet been paid (“case reserves”), adding estimates for the anticipated cost of claims incurred but not yet reported to the Company, or incurred but not enough reported to the Company (collectively referred to as “IBNR”) and, if deemed necessary, adding costs for additional case reserves which represent the Company’s estimates for claims related to specific contracts previously reported to the Company which it believes may not be adequately estimated by the client as of that date, or adequately covered in the application of IBNR.

The following table summarizes the Company’s claims and claim expense reserves by segment, allocated between case reserves, additional case reserves and IBNR:




At June 30, 2018	Case Reserves		Additional Case Reserves		IBNR		Total
Property	$	631,642	$	766,450	$	568,642	$	1,966,734
Casualty and Specialty	750,149		105,066		1,871,468		2,726,683
Other	4,433		—		4,495		8,928
Total	$	1,386,224	$	871,516	$	2,444,605	$	4,702,345

At December 31, 2017
Property	$	696,285	$	896,522	$	893,583	$	2,486,390
Casualty and Specialty	689,962		124,923		1,760,607		2,575,492
Other	6,605		—		11,921		18,526
Total	$	1,392,852	$	1,021,445	$	2,666,111	$	5,080,408

Activity in the liability for unpaid claims and claim expenses is summarized as follows:




Six months ended June 30,	2018			2017
Net reserves as of January 1	$	3,493,778		$	2,568,730
Net incurred related to:
Current year	419,434			351,766
Prior years	(187,564		)	(16,098		)
Total net incurred	231,870			335,668
Net paid related to:
Current year	23,902			19,885
Prior years	445,790			285,046
Total net paid	469,692			304,931
Foreign exchange	(8,602		)	19,753
Net reserves as of June 30	3,247,354			2,619,220
Reinsurance recoverable as of June 30	1,454,991			370,586
Gross reserves as of June 30	$	4,702,345		$	2,989,806

Prior Year Development of the Reserve for Net Claims and Claim Expenses

The Company’s estimates of claims and claim expense reserves are not precise in that, among other things, they are based on predictions of future developments and estimates of future trends and other variable factors. Some, but not all, of the Company’s reserves are further subject to the uncertainty inherent in actuarial methodologies and estimates. Because a reserve estimate is simply an insurer’s estimate at a point in time of its ultimate liability, and because there are numerous factors that affect reserves and claims payments that cannot be determined with certainty in advance, the Company’s ultimate payments will vary, perhaps materially, from its estimates of reserves. If the Company determines in a subsequent period that adjustments to its previously established reserves are appropriate, such adjustments are recorded in the period in which they are identified. On a net basis, the Company’s cumulative favorable or unfavorable development is generally reduced by offsetting changes in its reinsurance recoverables, as well as changes to loss related premiums such as reinstatement premiums and redeemable noncontrolling interest for changes in claims and claim expenses that impact DaVinciRe, all of which generally move in the opposite direction to changes in the Company’s ultimate claims and claim expenses.

The following table details the Company’s prior year development by segment of its liability for unpaid claims and claim expenses:




Six months ended June 30,	2018			2017
	(Favorable) adverse development			(Favorable) adverse development
Property	$	(170,707	)	$	(24,800	)
Casualty and Specialty	(16,787		)	9,257
Other	(70		)	(555		)
Total favorable development of prior accident years net claims and claim expenses	$	(187,564	)	$	(16,098	)

Changes to prior year estimated claims reserves increased the Company’s net income by $187.6 million during the six months ended June 30, 2018, (2017 - increased the Company’s net income by $16.1 million), excluding the consideration of changes in reinstatement, adjustment or other premium changes, profit commissions, redeemable noncontrolling interest - DaVinciRe and income tax.

Property Segment

The following tables detail the development of the Company’s liability for unpaid claims and claim expenses for its Property segment, allocated between large and small catastrophe net claims and claim expenses and attritional net claims and claim expenses, included in the other line item:




Six months ended June 30,	2018
	(Favorable) adverse development
Catastrophe net claims and claim expenses
Large catastrophe events
2017 Catastrophe Events	$	(156,213	)
Total large catastrophe events	(156,213		)
Small catastrophe events
Other	23,453
Total small catastrophe events	23,453
Total catastrophe net claims and claim expenses	(132,760		)
Attritional net claims and claim expenses
Actuarial methods - actual reported claims less than expected claims	(32,265		)
Actuarial assumption changes	(5,682		)
Total attritional net claims and claim expenses	(37,947		)
Total net favorable development of prior accident years net claims and claim expenses	$	(170,707	)

The net favorable development of prior accident years net claims and claim expenses within the Company’s Property segment in the six months ended June 30, 2018 of $170.7 million was comprised of net favorable development of $156.2 million related to large catastrophe events and net adverse development of $23.5 million related to small catastrophe events. Included in net favorable development of prior accident years net claims and claim expenses from large events was $156.2 million of net decreases in the estimated ultimate losses associated with Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria, the Mexico City Earthquake, and the Q4 2017 California Wildfires (collectively, the “2017 Catastrophe Events”). The Company’s Property segment also experienced net adverse development of $23.5 million associated with a number of other small catastrophe events. In addition, the Company’s Property segment experienced $37.9 million of net favorable development primarily driven by reported losses generally coming in lower than expected on attritional net claims and claim expenses and certain assumption changes within the other property class of business.




Six months ended June 30,	2017
	(Favorable) adverse development
Catastrophe net claims and claim expenses
Large catastrophe events
New Zealand Earthquake (2011)	$	5,807
New Zealand Earthquake (2010)	4,061
April and May U.S. Tornadoes (2011)	(4,153		)
Other	(3,864		)
Total large catastrophe events	1,851
Small catastrophe events
Fort McMurray Wildfire (2016)	(5,848		)
Tianjin Explosion (2015)	(4,896		)
U.S. PCS 13/14 Wind and Thunderstorm (2013)	(3,906		)
Other	(12,844		)
Total small catastrophe events	(27,494		)
Total catastrophe net claims and claim expenses	(25,643		)
Actuarial assumption changes	843
Total net favorable development of prior accident years net claims and claim expenses	$	(24,800	)

The net favorable development of prior accident years net claims and claim expenses within the Company’s Property segment in the six months ended June 30, 2017 of $24.8 million was principally comprised of net adverse development of $1.9 million related to large catastrophe events, net favorable development of $27.5 million related to small catastrophe events and $0.8 million of adverse development associated with actuarial assumption changes. Included in net adverse development of prior accident years net claims and claim expenses from large events was adverse development of $5.8 million related to the 2011 New Zealand Earthquake and $4.1 million related to the 2010 New Zealand Earthquake due to increases in the estimated expected losses associated with these events. Partially offsetting these events was favorable development of $4.2 million and $3.9 million related to the 2011 April and May U.S. Tornadoes and a number of other events, respectively, due to reductions in the estimated ultimate losses associated with these events. Included in net favorable development of prior accident years net claims and claims expenses from small events was a reduction in the estimated ultimate losses associated with the 2016 Fort McMurray Wildfire of $5.8 million, the 2015 Tianjin Explosion of $4.9 million and certain 2013 U.S. wind and thunderstorm events of $3.9 million. In addition, the Company’s Property segment experienced net favorable development of $12.8 million associated with a number of other small catastrophe events related to lines of business where the Company principally estimates net claims and claim expenses using traditional actuarial methods.

Casualty and Specialty Segment

The following table details the development of the Company’s liability for unpaid claims and claim expenses for its Casualty and Specialty segment:




Six months ended June 30,	2018			2017
	(Favorable) adverse development			(Favorable) adverse development
Actuarial methods	$	(9,001	)	$	(21,762	)
Ogden Rate change	—			33,481
Actuarial assumption changes	(7,786		)	(2,462		)
Total (favorable) adverse development of prior accident years net claims and claim expenses	$	(16,787	)	$	9,257

The net favorable development of prior accident years net claims and claim expenses within the Company’s Casualty and Specialty segment in the six months ended June 30, 2018 of $16.8 million was driven by reported losses generally coming in lower than expected on attritional net claims and claim expenses and certain assumption changes across a number of lines of business.

The net adverse development of prior accident years net claims and claim expenses within the Company’s Casualty and Specialty segment in the six months ended June 30, 2017 of $9.3 million was driven by $33.5 million of adverse development associated with the change in the discount rate used to calculate lump sum awards in U.K. bodily injury cases (the “Ogden Rate”), from 2.5%, to minus 0.75%. Notwithstanding the impact of the Ogden Rate change, the Company experienced $21.8 million of net favorable development in the six months ended June 30, 2017 related to actual reported losses coming in lower than expected on attritional net claims and claim expenses across a number of lines of business and $2.5 million of net favorable development associated with actuarial assumption changes.