EX-99.2 3 dex992.htm GLOBAL LOSS TRIANGLES SUPPLEMENT Global Loss Triangles Supplement

Exhibit 99.2

 

LOGO

 

LOGO

 

Investor Contact

 

Helen M. Wilson

Phone: (441) 299-9283

Fax: (441) 292-8675

   This report is for informational purposes only. It should be read in conjunction with documents filed by ACE Limited with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K/A and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q.

 

email: investorrelations@ace.bm

  

 

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:

     Any forward-looking statements made in this document reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements.
     For example, the Company’s forward-looking statements could be affected by the frequency of unpredictable catastrophic events, actual loss experience which differs from the Company’s assumptions, uncertainties in the reserving or settlement process, new theories of liability, judicial, legislative, regulatory and other governmental developments, litigation tactics and developments, the amount and timing of reinsurance recoverable, credit developments among reinsurers, pricing and policy term trends and actual market conditions and developments, as well as management’s response to these factors, and other factors identified in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K/A for the year ended December 31, 2004, the Company’s quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and 10-Q/A, and in the Company’s earnings press releases, which are available on the Company’s website. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made.


LOGO  

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Global Loss Triangles Supplement

Table of Contents

 
 

 

          Page

I.    Overview     
     - Executive Summary    2
     - Reconciliation of Global Loss Triangles with GAAP December 31, 2004 Balances    3
     - Reconciliation to Previous Release    4
     - Reserve Evaluation Considerations    14
II.    Insurance - North American     
     - Highlights - Insurance North American Segment    15
     - Workers Compensation    16
     - General Liability    17
     - Other Casualty    18
     - Non-Casualty    19
III.    Insurance - Overseas General     
     - Highlights - Insurance Overseas General Segment    20
     - Casualty    21
     - Non-Casualty    22
     - Personal Accident    23
IV.    Global Reinsurance (Global Re)     
     - Highlights - Global Re Segment    24
     - Property    25
     - Non-Property    26
V.    Selected Excerpts based upon ACE’s 2004 10-K/A Disclosure    27
VI.    Glossary    29

 

Contents

 

    Page 1


LOGO   

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Overview

Executive Summary

  
  

 

This document forms the supplement to ACE’s release of its Global Loss Triangles (GLT) as at December 31, 2004. Last year we released the GLT for the first time with the purpose of providing the reader with the opportunity to use their own judgment with respect to certain areas of our reserves and also a greater insight into ACE’s business and overall reserve balance. As discussed later in this document, our reserving approach is a detailed ground-up process reflecting the scope and diversity of the products written by our various operations. In addition, the market has seen rapid changes in both rates and terms and conditions over the last few years. It is therefore difficult to prepare an aggregate disclosure that captures all of these aspects. However, we believe that with the requisite care and attention to analysis, the disclosure can be used to provide the reader with insight about ACE’s reserve position. To assist the reader with their analysis, we have provided guidance where possible in the document on key assumptions that should be considered when performing an analysis.

 

In compiling this year’s release we have followed essentially the same format as released last year but we have also made a number of changes to the data. These changes reflect actions from the recent restatement, re-classification of certain items to be excluded (most notably premiums, and to a much lesser extent losses), foreign exchange adjustments and considerable enhancements to the compilation process. Notable examples of the enhancements include the extensive work undertaken to improve the accident year resolution of the ACE Global Markets data and an expansion of the compilation process to include a greater volume of information within this release, most notably for the Overseas General segment. We believe that this year’s release is an improvement over last year’s release and that the changes are consistent with our commitment to leading our peer group in the pursuit of more transparent loss reserve disclosures

 

The GLT supplement is comprised of the following information:

 

  For direct business – accident year (AY) triangles of a) net paid loss plus paid allocated loss adjustment expenses (ALAE) and b) net reported loss plus paid ALAE (i.e. excluding IBNR) for the ten calendar years ending December 31, 2004.

 

  For reinsurance business – treaty year (TY) triangles of a) net paid loss plus paid ALAE and b) net reported loss plus paid ALAE (i.e. excluding IBNR) for the ten calendar years ending December 31, 2004.

 

  Net earned premium for each of the ten accident/treaty years ending December 31, 2004.

 

The triangle data are provided in groupings under three of ACE’s four SEC reporting segments:

 

  Insurance North American Segment

 

    Workers Compensation (WC)

 

    General Liability (GL)

 

    Other Casualty

 

    Non-Casualty

 

Insurance Overseas General Segment

 

    Casualty

 

    Non-Casualty

 

    Personal Accident

 

  Global Reinsurance Segment

 

    Casualty

 

    Non-Casualty

 

Furthermore, the GLT supplement also contains the following:

 

  A reconciliation of the GLT reserve balances with ACE’s published GAAP reserve balance ending December 31, 2004.

 

  A reconciliation of the current data to that contained in the previous release.

 

  A discussion of some factors to consider when analyzing loss reserve triangles.

 

  Commentary highlighting aspects of the GLT triangles and their interpretations.

 

  Relevant discussion from our 2004 10-K/A addressing ACE’s reserving process.

 

Overview

 

    Page 2


LOGO   

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Overview

Reconciliation of GLT with GAAP December 31, 2004 Balances

    
    

 

The net reserves (case plus IBNR) associated with the GLT can be reconciled back to ACE Limited’s December 31, 2004 closing GAAP P&C net reserve balance as follows:

 

     ($millions)

GAAP Net P&C Reserve Balance at December 31, 20041

   $ 17,517

Less: World Trade Center Reserve 2

     272

Financial Solutions 3

     2,121

Bad Debt

     619

Unallocated Loss Adjustment Expense (ULAE)

     635

Excluded Large Loss 4

     85

Commutation 5

     237

Other 6

     401

Plus: Recoveries from retroactive reinsurance contracts 7

     2,302
    

GLT Net Reserve Balance at December 31, 2004

   $ 15,449
    

The GLT Net Reserve Balance can be split as follows:

      

Accident Years 1995 through 2004

   $ 11,002

Accident Years 1994 and prior

     4,447
    

     $ 15,449
    


The triangles are constructed to exclude the effects of shifting exchange rates. Loss and ALAE data denominated in foreign currencies are converted to US dollars at December 2004 exchange rates.

 

1. As restated per the announcement of July 21, 2005. The primary purpose of the restatement was to correct accounting treatment for eight transactions in the “non-traditional” or “finite risk” category. This amount is net of third party reinsurance recoveries of $14 billion.

 

As indicated above, certain blocks of loss and ALAE reserves were excluded for the following reasons:

 

2. The paid and reported losses for WTC have been removed from the triangles to avoid projection distortions. The $272 million reserve balance for WTC is consistent with prior disclosures of $650 million net loss less $378 million paid as of December 31, 2004.
3. With respect to the Financial Solutions business, traditional actuarial methods such as loss development triangles are inappropriate for evaluating reserves. The book is made up of a relatively small number of large heterogeneous accounts, each account having its own unique terms. As a result, each account is reviewed and reserved for individually.
4. To avoid projection distortion, an integrated occurrence from a single insured has been removed from the 1995 and 1996 accident years of the Insurance North American General Liability triangle. The paid amounts as of December 31, 2004 are $81 million in 1995 and $3 million in 1996, while the reported amounts are $91 million and $78 million, respectively.
5. The increases in loss reserves relating to a 2003 commutation have been excluded to avoid distorting the loss history.
6. Includes blocks of reserves associated with prior years, or representing reserves for which loss development methods are not appropriate or other items.
7. The Global Loss Triangles are presented gross of retroactive reinsurance, which is consistent with the US statutory Schedule P treatment. In general, these treaties tend to distort the net loss history and prevent a useful analysis. ACE does not utilize this type of reinsurance in the normal course of business. The retroactive treaties we have on our books relate to acquisitions made by ACE, and the majority of the expected recoveries relate to accident years 1994 and prior. As we have previously disclosed, $2.097 billion (or 91%) of the total retroactive recoveries relate to the NICO Brandywine cover, which was purchased at the time of ACE’s acquisition of the CIGNA P&C business. The remaining amount of $205 million relates to the ACE Westchester acquisition.

 

Reconciliation

 

    Page 3


LOGO   

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Overview

Reconciliation to Previous Release

  
  

 

Having established a process for the release of the initial GLTs, we reviewed this process in detail as a prelude to the current release. Through this review we identified a number of opportunities to improve the quality and scope of the GLT.

 

The main enhancement has been on the Overseas General segment where we had previously excluded large pieces of ACE Global Markets (AGM) business due to the inability to extract complete historical information in the desired form. We now include all relevant business from AGM and additionally have enhanced the process we use to translate Gross Year of Account (YOA) data to Net Accident Year data. For this release we have been able to accurately allocate 80% of claims arising from Year of Account 2000 and onwards, using the actual date of loss. In addition on the largest claims (representing around 20% of claims) we have been able to perform a net-down that accurately reflects the impact of the reinsurance program relevant to each claim.

 

On the following pages we summarize the historical data changes by segment and accident/treaty year at December 31, 2003 for paid loss, reported loss & earned premium. We also attribute the overall movement to each source as listed below.

 

Insurance North American

 

A comparison of this year’s GLT with the previous release shows paid losses increased by under 1%, reported losses increased by 1% and premiums decreased by 4% across accident years 1995-2003 combined.

 

  Restatement/Reclassification

 

Due to the recent restatement, the premium and losses no longer reflect the cessions for certain finite contracts and reclassification of certain premium and loss amounts for business excluded from the GLT disclosure.

 

  Currency

 

Effect of restating historical values at December 2004 exchange rates

 

Insurance Overseas General

 

A comparison of this year’s GLT with the previous release shows paid losses increased by 42%, reported losses increased by 38% and premiums increased by 43% across accident years 1995-2003 combined. The majority of these changes relate to previously excluded classes being included for this release.

 

  AGM Methodology

 

As described above a more detailed process was used this year to derive net AY data

 

  Restatement/Reclassification

 

Due to the recent restatement, the premium and losses no longer reflect the cessions for certain finite contracts and the inclusion of the following classes;

 

AGM - Personal Accident, Energy, Property (All Years) and Casualty (AY 96 & prior)

 

ACE International - some discontinued lines and smaller countries.

 

  Currency

 

Effect of restating historical values at December 2004 exchange rates

 

Global Re

 

A comparison of this year’s GLT with the previous release shows paid losses increased by 2% and reported losses increased by 1% over treaty years 1995-2003 combined. The comparison of the earned premium figures will show large increases as treaty years naturally advance towards being fully earned. Therefore we have not shown this comparison within the reconciliation schedules. On a minor note, we have changed the labeling of the two Global Re classes this year, but the composition of each has stayed the same.

 

  Currency

 

Effect of restating historical values at December 2004 exchange rates

 

  Miscellaneous

 

For future releases, we will continue to review the content and segmentation of the triangles to ensure that they provide a useful representation of our evolving business profile.

 

Reconciliation to Previous

 

    Page 4


LOGO   

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Insurance North American Workers Compensation

Reconciliation to Previous Release

In $US thousands

  
  
  

 

Cumulative Paid Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003                     

Accident Year


   Previous
Release


   Restatement/
Reclassification


    Currency

   Current
Release


1995

   313,106    4,715     277    318,098

1996

   247,534    27     360    247,922

1997

   210,947    (2,842 )   415    208,520

1998

   243,969    11,736     385    256,089

1999

   180,550    (1,937 )   448    179,062

2000

   154,389    (42,198 )   344    112,536

2001

   59,041    (0 )   203    59,244

2002

   76,748    0     55    76,804

2003

   38,981    106     4    39,091
    
  

 
  

Total

   1,525,266    (30,392 )   2,492    1,497,366
    
  

 
  
Cumulative Reported Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003                     

Accident Year


   Previous
Release


   Restatement/
Reclassification


    Currency

   Current
Release


1995

   352,118    4,714     297    357,130

1996

   245,561    28     467    246,056

1997

   245,856    4,250     429    250,535

1998

   281,471    43,954     623    326,048

1999

   216,983    3,943     608    221,534

2000

   177,630    (42,198 )   905    136,337

2001

   70,100    12     597    70,709

2002

   123,752    0     410    124,163

2003

   100,170    103     214    100,487
    
  

 
  

Total

   1,813,642    14,806     4,551    1,832,999
    
  

 
  
Net Earned Premium                     

Accident Year


   Previous
Release


   Restatement/
Reclassification


    Currency

   Current
Release


1995

   500,005    0     362    500,367

1996

   440,059    0     335    440,394

1997

   409,510    8,248     321    418,079

1998

   435,467    15,000     401    450,868

1999

   332,714    14,786     452    347,951

2000

   209,661    802     522    210,985

2001

   272,925    (1,193 )   759    272,491

2002

   381,693    (6,315 )   1,005    376,383

2003

   577,172    37,958     1,341    616,471
    
  

 
  

Total

   3,559,206    69,286     5,499    3,633,991
    
  

 
  

 

NA WC(R)

 

    Page 5


LOGO   

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Insurance North American General Liability

Reconciliation to Previous Release

In $US thousands

  
  
  

 

Cumulative Paid Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003                     

Accident Year


   Previous
Release


   Restatement/
Reclassification


    Currency

   Current
Release


1995

   204,732    901     683    206,316

1996

   230,746    (48 )   1,603    232,302

1997

   193,440    (924 )   1,439    193,956

1998

   218,726    1,415     982    221,123

1999

   272,293    4,618     1,210    278,121

2000

   235,368    96     856    236,320

2001

   135,215    38     879    136,132

2002

   111,345    (178 )   325    111,492

2003

   41,961    (0 )   142    42,103
    
  

 
  

Total

   1,643,827    5,919     8,119    1,657,865
    
  

 
  
Cumulative Reported Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003                     

Accident Year


   Previous
Release


   Restatement/
Reclassification


    Currency

   Current
Release


1995

   260,235    899     706    261,841

1996

   244,586    (47 )   1,821    246,359

1997

   217,928    13     1,491    219,432

1998

   235,066    3,778     1,284    240,127

1999

   305,985    9,535     1,824    317,345

2000

   350,974    (403 )   1,213    351,784

2001

   253,219    (921 )   1,842    254,139

2002

   144,019    (1,232 )   959    143,747

2003

   76,531    (350 )   614    76,795
    
  

 
  

Total

   2,088,543    11,272     11,754    2,111,569
    
  

 
  
Net Earned Premium                     

Accident Year


   Previous
Release


   Restatement/
Reclassification


    Currency

   Current
Release


1995

   630,995    (1,125 )   2,190    632,061

1996

   612,624    (2,028 )   2,091    612,687

1997

   529,832    2,245     2,158    534,235

1998

   459,322    11,738     2,096    473,156

1999

   393,026    72,504     1,883    467,414

2000

   427,879    (40,288 )   2,314    389,906

2001

   572,303    (267,724 )   2,781    307,359

2002

   658,235    29,990     3,995    692,220

2003

   1,429,871    (163,796 )   6,103    1,272,178
    
  

 
  

Total

   5,714,087    (358,482 )   25,611    5,381,215
    
  

 
  

 

NA GL (R)

 

    Page 6


LOGO   

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Insurance North American Other Casualty

Reconciliation to Previous Release

In $US thousands

    
    
    

 

Cumulative Paid Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003

Accident Year


   Previous
Release


   Restatement/
Reclassification


    Currency

   Current
Release


1995

   645,399    5     313    645,716

1996

   728,116    1     248    728,364

1997

   491,726    (2 )   600    492,325

1998

   558,519    36,542     763    595,824

1999

   403,668    20,139     429    424,236

2000

   423,460    4     471    423,935

2001

   247,647    1,440     561    249,648

2002

   179,196    (989 )   456    178,663

2003

   124,688    (2,762 )   238    122,164
    
  

 
  

Total

   3,802,419    54,378     4,078    3,860,875
    
  

 
  
Cumulative Reported Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003

Accident Year


   Previous
Release


   Restatement/
Reclassification


    Currency

   Current
Release


1995

   653,097    4     320    653,421

1996

   737,526    2     247    737,775

1997

   514,862    6,862     606    522,330

1998

   583,952    59,142     769    643,863

1999

   442,838    13,306     453    456,596

2000

   454,322    22     536    454,880

2001

   286,009    1,351     1,072    288,432

2002

   243,770    (1,466 )   726    243,031

2003

   195,731    (5,812 )   748    190,667
    
  

 
  

Total

   4,112,108    73,410     5,477    4,190,995
    
  

 
  
Net Earned Premium

Accident Year


   Previous
Release


   Restatement/
Reclassification


    Currency

   Current
Release


1995

   994,785    (3,182 )   365    991,968

1996

   906,133    (947 )   445    905,631

1997

   737,334    11,702     633    749,668

1998

   598,251    22,339     606    621,196

1999

   918,732    (345,970 )   542    573,303

2000

   556,550    (80,163 )   750    477,137

2001

   503,634    (95,110 )   890    409,414

2002

   572,310    (23,989 )   1,537    549,858

2003

   849,132    (185,041 )   2,476    666,567
    
  

 
  

Total

   6,636,860    (700,361 )   8,244    5,944,743
    
  

 
  

 

NA Other Cas (R)

 

    Page 7


LOGO   

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Insurance North American Non-Casualty

Reconciliation to Previous Release

In $US thousands

  
  
  

 

Cumulative Paid Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003

Accident Year


   Previous
Release


   Restatement/
Reclassification


    Currency

   Current
Release


1995

   272,501    (766 )   2,312    274,047

1996

   262,729    (2,382 )   2,016    262,363

1997

   254,382    (2,573 )   2,101    253,911

1998

   368,112    (11,136 )   6,498    363,474

1999

   285,781    822     1,531    288,134

2000

   395,738    (5,644 )   3,180    393,274

2001

   272,233    (6,983 )   2,392    267,642

2002

   401,283    (3,511 )   1,187    398,959

2003

   381,183    (652 )   1,040    381,571
    
  

 
  

Total

   2,893,943    (32,824 )   22,257    2,883,375
    
  

 
  
Cumulative Reported Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003

Accident Year


   Previous
Release


   Restatement/
Reclassification


    Currency

   Current
Release


1995

   272,766    (773 )   2,312    274,305

1996

   270,877    (2,380 )   2,016    270,513

1997

   251,286    (513 )   2,060    252,833

1998

   370,907    (11,763 )   6,697    365,842

1999

   286,359    4,441     1,483    292,283

2000

   426,026    (5,507 )   3,221    423,740

2001

   302,005    (9,406 )   2,781    295,381

2002

   407,764    (1,241 )   1,246    407,769

2003

   466,750    1,008     1,795    469,553
    
  

 
  

Total

   3,054,741    (26,133 )   23,611    3,052,219
    
  

 
  
Net Earned Premium

Accident Year


   Previous
Release


   Restatement/
Reclassification


    Currency

   Current
Release


1995

   423,857    5,106     5,252    434,215

1996

   507,081    (1,662 )   5,381    510,800

1997

   525,072    1,159     3,859    530,090

1998

   519,608    13,843     2,530    535,981

1999

   503,846    11,476     2,022    517,344

2000

   661,112    5,399     2,305    668,816

2001

   623,325    (9,383 )   4,371    618,312

2002

   895,477    (95,375 )   8,941    809,043

2003

   880,353    191,704     8,668    1,080,725
    
  

 
  

Total

   5,539,731    122,267     43,329    5,705,326
    
  

 
  

 

NA NC (R)

 

    Page 8


LOGO   

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Insurance Overseas General Casualty

Reconciliation to Previous Release

In $US thousands

  
  
  

 

Cumulative Paid Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003

Accident Year


   Previous
Release


   AGM
Methodology


    Restatement/
Reclassification


    Currency

   Current
Release


1995

   258,992    0     322,660     20,655    602,307

1996

   265,965    0     400,203     21,058    687,227

1997

   636,420    (26,905 )   2,412     24,613    636,540

1998

   606,176    12,846     (602 )   22,980    641,400

1999

   571,754    5,365     734     25,811    603,663

2000

   664,683    58,567     6,566     31,050    760,866

2001

   562,590    (26,086 )   9,509     25,213    571,227

2002

   387,063    (5,207 )   (3,222 )   17,189    395,823

2003

   187,656    (22,224 )   (2,644 )   8,626    171,413
    
  

 

 
  

Total

   4,141,298    (3,644 )   735,617     197,194    5,070,466
    
  

 

 
  
Cumulative Reported Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003

Accident Year


   Previous
Release


   AGM
Methodology


    Restatement/
Reclassification


    Currency

   Current
Release


1995

   264,773    0     341,827     21,271    627,871

1996

   272,760    0     434,698     21,719    729,177

1997

   829,559    (160,987 )   2,258     28,426    699,256

1998

   727,873    (31,450 )   (631 )   25,848    721,639

1999

   594,671    79,295     1,544     29,340    704,850

2000

   863,381    26,592     40,717     40,713    971,402

2001

   693,158    (34,104 )   136,057     35,269    830,381

2002

   625,698    (48,495 )   14,622     29,026    620,851

2003

   350,332    (18,428 )   (5,958 )   18,138    344,084
    
  

 

 
  

Total

   5,222,205    (187,578 )   965,133     249,750    6,249,511
    
  

 

 
  
Net Earned Premium

Accident Year


   Previous
Release


   AGM
Methodology


    Restatement/
Reclassification


    Currency

   Current
Release


1995

   487,876    0     939,113     39,528    1,466,517

1996

   503,078    0     921,288     40,627    1,464,992

1997

   1,011,026    173,061     2,203     44,732    1,231,022

1998

   949,935    122,471     381     44,467    1,117,254

1999

   909,774    99,112     4,691     45,284    1,058,861

2000

   984,206    107,280     23,991     50,084    1,165,561

2001

   1,133,599    12,831     101,305     55,217    1,302,952

2002

   1,394,816    (42,919 )   78,130     74,841    1,504,868

2003

   1,558,108    (22,215 )   103,697     90,472    1,730,062
    
  

 

 
  

Total

   8,932,418    449,621     2,174,799     485,251    12,042,089
    
  

 

 
  

 

OG Cas (R)

 

    Page 9


LOGO   

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Insurance Overseas General Non-Casualty

Reconciliation to Previous Release

In $US thousands

  
  
  

 

Cumulative Paid Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003

Accident Year


   Previous
Release


   AGM
Methodology


   Restatement/
Reclassification


   Currency

   Current
Release


1995

   159,338    0    200,273    16,082    375,693

1996

   145,620    0    176,626    15,212    337,458

1997

   158,753    0    266,267    16,255    441,275

1998

   299,644    0    219,203    22,895    541,742

1999

   296,180    0    231,807    29,936    557,922

2000

   337,542    0    232,140    34,697    604,378

2001

   318,492    0    112,439    48,602    479,533

2002

   256,995    0    75,649    26,917    359,562

2003

   97,947    0    32,887    9,158    139,992
    
  
  
  
  

Total

   2,070,512    0    1,547,290    219,753    3,837,555
    
  
  
  
  
Cumulative Reported Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003

Accident Year


   Previous
Release


   AGM
Methodology


   Restatement/
Reclassification


   Currency

   Current
Release


1995

   159,863    0    203,042    16,138    379,043

1996

   147,427    0    181,953    15,424    344,804

1997

   162,745    0    283,679    16,699    463,123

1998

   303,005    0    231,921    23,257    558,183

1999

   304,434    0    240,409    30,866    575,710

2000

   358,614    0    255,519    36,887    651,020

2001

   351,863    0    124,154    53,668    529,684

2002

   337,305    0    108,632    34,661    480,598

2003

   298,823    0    71,390    27,922    398,135
    
  
  
  
  

Total

   2,424,079    0    1,700,699    255,522    4,380,300
    
  
  
  
  
Net Earned Premium

Accident Year


   Previous
Release


   AGM
Methodology


   Restatement/
Reclassification


   Currency

   Current
Release


1995

   330,275    0    470,391    33,789    834,455

1996

   328,952    0    419,426    33,246    781,624

1997

   339,137    0    382,035    32,634    753,807

1998

   343,842    0    327,720    32,095    703,657

1999

   349,188    0    252,879    31,607    633,674

2000

   366,502    0    200,749    33,275    600,526

2001

   393,521    0    240,930    36,908    671,358

2002

   564,219    0    273,585    54,259    892,063

2003

   766,792    0    425,783    71,546    1,264,121
    
  
  
  
  

Total

   3,782,428    0    2,993,498    359,359    7,135,285
    
  
  
  
  

 

OG NC (R)

 

    Page 10


LOGO   

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Insurance Overseas General Personal Accident

Reconciliation to Previous Release

In $US thousands

  
  
  

 

Cumulative Paid Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003

Accident Year


   Previous
Release


   AGM
Methodology


   Restatement/
Reclassification


   Currency

   Current
Release


1995

   150,736    0    45,669    13,039    209,444

1996

   150,113    0    37,237    13,171    200,521

1997

   166,991    0    43,858    14,423    225,272

1998

   190,489    0    62,268    17,117    269,874

1999

   176,806    0    62,407    15,903    255,116

2000

   180,790    0    102,155    16,582    299,527

2001

   219,610    0    28,801    22,119    270,530

2002

   196,566    0    12,709    18,494    227,768

2003

   115,310    0    2,256    10,648    128,214
    
  
  
  
  

Total

   1,547,410    0    397,360    141,495    2,086,266
    
  
  
  
  
Cumulative Reported Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003

Accident Year


   Previous
Release


   AGM
Methodology


   Restatement/
Reclassification


   Currency

   Current
Release


1995

   151,771    0    48,074    13,162    213,007

1996

   152,519    0    39,760    13,394    205,673

1997

   169,362    0    47,458    14,666    231,487

1998

   193,379    0    68,007    17,398    278,784

1999

   183,525    0    70,261    16,654    270,440

2000

   192,767    0    113,570    17,870    324,207

2001

   251,666    0    32,451    25,687    309,804

2002

   259,285    0    18,544    24,973    302,802

2003

   192,671    0    6,218    18,314    217,203
    
  
  
  
  

Total

   1,746,946    0    444,344    162,117    2,353,407
    
  
  
  
  
Net Earned Premium

Accident Year


   Previous
Release


   AGM
Methodology


   Restatement/
Reclassification


   Currency

   Current
Release


1995

   403,833    0    77,241    32,443    513,517

1996

   426,573    0    68,758    34,161    529,491

1997

   534,800    0    72,459    29,565    636,823

1998

   474,808    0    91,459    37,911    604,179

1999

   487,356    0    104,800    39,809    631,965

2000

   486,930    0    89,478    41,555    617,963

2001

   558,951    0    56,848    49,735    665,534

2002

   662,451    0    50,609    60,654    773,713

2003

   718,979    0    87,551    66,145    872,676
    
  
  
  
  

Total

   4,754,681    0    699,204    391,976    5,845,861
    
  
  
  
  

 

OG PA (R)

 

    Page 11


LOGO   

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Global Re Property

Reconciliation to Previous Release

In $US thousands

  
  
  

 

Cumulative Paid Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003

Treaty Year


   Previous
Release


   Currency

    Miscellaneous

    Current
Release


1995

   69,314    1,974     0     71,288

1996

   25,843    35     0     25,878

1997

   17,564    376     0     17,940

1998

   89,042    2,326     0     91,368

1999

   47,990    3,603     0     51,593

2000

   51,113    616     0     51,729

2001

   55,746    150     0     55,897

2002

   75,099    1,131     (1 )   76,229

2003

   30,370    0     (0 )   30,370
    
  

 

 

Total

   462,083    10,210     (1 )   472,292
    
  

 

 
Cumulative Reported Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003

Treaty Year


   Previous
Release


   Currency

    Miscellaneous

    Current
Release


1995

   69,366    1,976     0     71,342

1996

   25,978    36     0     26,014

1997

   18,259    414     0     18,673

1998

   89,721    2,359     0     92,080

1999

   48,134    3,606     0     51,740

2000

   50,447    616     (0 )   51,063

2001

   56,943    187     0     57,130

2002

   116,337    1,747     (0 )   118,083

2003

   61,749    (5,218 )   (5 )   56,526
    
  

 

 

Total

   536,933    5,722     (5 )   542,650
    
  

 

 

 

GR Prop(R)

 

    Page 12


LOGO   

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Global Re Non-Property

Reconciliation to Previous Release

In $US thousands

  
  
  

 

Cumulative Paid Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003                     

Treaty Year


   Previous
Release


   Currency

   Miscellaneous

    Current
Release


1995

   0    0    0     0

1996

   0    0    0     0

1997

   0    0    0     0

1998

   0    0    0     0

1999

   0    0    0     0

2000

   13,761    0    0     13,762

2001

   23,691    0    (1,234 )   22,457

2002

   14,977    0    (0 )   14,976

2003

   4,268    0    0     4,268
    
  
  

 

Total

   56,697    0    (1,233 )   55,464
    
  
  

 
Cumulative Reported Loss + Paid ALAE at December 31, 2003                     

Treaty Year


   Previous
Release


   Currency

   Miscellaneous

    Current
Release


1995

   0    0    0     0

1996

   0    0    0     0

1997

   0    0    0     0

1998

   0    0    0     0

1999

   0    0    0     0

2000

   20,026    0    0     20,027

2001

   38,016    0    (1,327 )   36,689

2002

   37,259    0    1     37,260

2003

   19,537    0    6     19,543
    
  
  

 

Total

   114,838    0    (1,320 )   113,518
    
  
  

 

 

GR NProp(R)

 

    Page 13


LOGO   

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Overview

Reserve Evaluation Considerations

  
  

 

We have actuarial staff in each of our operating segments who track insurance reserves and regularly evaluate the levels of loss reserves, taking into consideration factors that may impact the ultimate loss reserves. This is accomplished not only by employing a variety of actuarial methods, but also by applying judgment to help quantify the impact of these variables.

 

Considerable caution should be used when attempting to analyze reserve adequacy based on aggregated triangles. It is rare that the data is so consistent, homogeneous, and static that a valid analysis is possible without exercising substantial judgment. Results can be distorted by both industry-wide and company-specific factors. Below is a non-exhaustive list of possible pitfalls:

 

  Many methods for judging reserve adequacy (e.g. Stanard-Buhlmann, Least Squares) assume that expected loss ratios (ELRs) do not change over time. In fact, ELRs can change substantially from year to year due to many reasons (e.g. change in rates, change in mix of business, etc.). In recent years, a hard market has produced higher rates and more restrictive terms and conditions for most lines, which should result in lower ELRs. If these rate changes are not taken into consideration, indicated reserves will most likely be overstated, or explained another way, misleading reserve deficiencies may be indicated. While we consider ACE’s actual rate change information to be proprietary, there are a number of public sources that can be used as a proxy to adjust loss ratios to a more appropriate level. These sources include, but are not limited to, the Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers (CIAB) Commercial Insurance Lines survey, Lloyd’s of London Premium Rating Index, and Tillinghast-Towers Perrin Directors & Officers Liability Survey.

 

  Changes in inflation rates distort any reserve analysis based on loss triangles. If expected future inflation is lower (higher) than historical inflation rates, needed reserves may be overstated (understated) as a result, and appropriate adjustments should be made. If inflation rates are stable, no adjustment may be required.

 

  Many other changes and distortions (e.g. change in reinsurance structure, large losses, change in settlement rates, etc.) can skew the results of a reserve analysis based on aggregated triangles. These distortions are not always easily corrected for, but we have attempted to identify and quantify them wherever possible.

 

  Loss development methods can be particularly volatile at the first and second evaluation points, especially for longer-tailed lines. In those situations, we would recommend relying on an expected loss technique. One expected loss technique not addressed in Feldblum’s paper (see below) is the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method, which can be modified to incorporate information on changing premium rates in an analysis of reserve adequacy.

 

There are a number of valid prospective tests of reserve adequacy that can be performed based on consolidated triangles. One excellent source of information on the various methods is Completing and Using Schedule P by Sholom Feldblum (1) . It is strongly recommended that anyone attempting to analyze reserves presented in loss triangles be familiar with the methods detailed in the section entitled “Loss Reserve Adequacy Testing – Prospective Valuation.”

 

(1) Publicly available on the Casualty Actuarial Society’s web site at the following address http://www.casact.org/pubs/forum/02fforum/02ff353.pdf

 

Considerations

 

    Page 14


LOGO   

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Highlights - Insurance North American Segment

  

 

Insurance North American Segment

 

The Insurance North American segment covers business written by ACE USA (including business written in other ACE entities but managed by ACE USA), ACE Westchester Specialty, ACE Canada, and ACE Bermuda. A significant portion of ACE Bermuda’s exposure is from the US, though a portion does reside in Europe.

 

There are three important points with regards to the “Prior” line. First, the “Prior” line shown here is gross of retroactive reinsurance (NICO treaties). Second, it would be incorrect to apply a single loss development factor to the “Prior” line, as it does not represent a single accident year but the total activity in accident years 1994 and prior. Third, nearly all of ACE’s Asbestos and Environmental exposure is contained in the “Prior” line of the General Liability triangles. Development factors derived from loss triangles are inappropriate for analysis of this exposure.

 

Contained in the triangles are a few instances of modest negative case reserves (calculated by taking the difference between the reported and paid at a given development age for a particular accident year). This is typically due to either salvage and subrogation or timing differences associated primarily with ceded reinsurance. For Workers Compensation and other Casualty lines, it will usually be the latter. For Non-Casualty lines, it tends to be the former. In our view, these negative case reserves will not significantly distort an analysis nor detract from the usefulness of the information provided.

 

Insurance North American – Workers Compensation

 

The US Statutory Schedule P filings for Workers Compensation (WC) only show a portion of ACE’s total WC business due to an internal reinsurance transaction between the ACE American Pool and another ACE entity. Under this transaction 100% of the outstanding liabilities for the 2000 and prior accident years and 100% of any future development (net of third party reinsurance) was ceded outside the ACE American Pool. The WC triangle shown in this supplement includes the business ceded through this contract and as such gives a more complete representation of the WC business written by ACE’s US based direct operations.

 

The WC line has experienced shifts in mix by business type during the ten year experience period included in the loss triangles. In the 1995 through 1999 years, guaranteed cost policies and first dollar loss sensitive products made up a large portion of the portfolio. The paid and incurred losses for this time period should experience development consistent with industry patterns.

 

Beginning with the 2000 accident year, the mix shifted largely to risk management accounts with high deductible programs where the excess of deductible losses were mostly reinsured to third parties. Under high deductible programs, net losses are excess and therefore would tend to have longer development patterns than primary or first dollar losses. Premiums for risk management accounts include significant loadings for administrative expenses and unallocated loss expenses. As a result, the loss component of the net premium is much lower than primary or guaranteed cost policies making loss projection methods that rely on expected loss ratios based on industry experience (or prior year loss ratios) inappropriate.

 

In 2003, the majority of the WC business was still written on large deductible policies though less reinsurance was purchased. In 2004, large deductible policies still dominated the workers compensation portfolio however there was strong growth in first dollar guaranteed cost business.

 

Insurance North American – General Liability

 

The triangles consist of Primary General Liability, Excess Liability, Professional Liability, and Products Liability. The Primary General Liability and US Excess Liability are written on an occurrence basis and represent the largest part, while the Professional Liability and Bermuda Excess Liability are written on a claims made basis. Given the recent hard market in Professional Liability, each of the four entities has grown its Professional Liability book over recent years.

 

Furthermore, the underwriting cycle has been particularly pronounced for Professional Liability, with a soft market throughout the late 1990’s and into 2001, followed by a significant hardening. These changes in price adequacy should be incorporated into any analysis of reserve levels.

 

ACE Bermuda writes on a “claims first reported” form which means that coverage is triggered when news of a potential claim is received, potentially well in advance of a claim being filed. In addition, Bermuda typically writes at high attachment points, particularly on its Excess Liability book.

 

Finally, in ACE’s US statutory Schedule P, Warranty business appears in Other Liability – Occurrence. However, Warranty claims are settled quickly, and case reserves are generally not established. This makes it very different from the other business included in the Other Liability line. Warranty products are multi-year contracts, and rather than establish IBNR reserves for future claims, premium earnings are deferred over the life of the contracts and an unearned premium reserve is held which is reviewed and tested for adequacy (this is consistent with industry practice). Therefore, we have removed data associated with Warranty business from the triangles. This exclusion has also been applied in the Overseas General segment.

 

Insurance North American – Other Casualty

 

These triangles consist of the non-WC and non-GL long tailed business. The lines included are Auto Liability, Commercial Multi-Peril, Political Risk, Marine, and Aviation. The last two lines are the main components of the Special Liability line in ACE’s US Schedule P.

 

Insurance North American – Non-Casualty

 

The vast majority of business in this triangle consists of Property exposures. In addition, there is Auto Physical Damage, Fidelity and Surety, and the “Other” line from ACE’s US annual statement, which includes Personal Accident exposure.

 

Highlights NA

 

    Page 15


LOGO   

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Insurance North American Workers Compensation

As of 12/31/04

In $US thousands

  
  
  

 

Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle
     Age in months

Accident Year


   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

Prior

   0    273,445    522,768    723,892    894,809    1,055,224    1,163,285    1,274,108    1,365,221    1,455,767

1995

   91,651    195,434    236,018    273,071    287,561    300,865    312,490    314,018    318,098    319,133

1996

   45,160    91,727    114,961    152,358    187,767    209,904    230,866    247,922    261,372     

1997

   57,285    108,553    147,874    171,063    186,949    200,390    208,520    213,265          

1998

   67,051    146,424    182,542    216,480    237,970    256,089    268,150               

1999

   37,504    82,491    124,127    155,941    179,062    193,173                    

2000

   28,329    48,636    105,291    112,536    119,314                         

2001

   15,658    41,510    59,244    75,260                              

2002

   27,783    76,804    88,735                                   

2003

   39,091    58,804                                        

2004

   70,045                                             
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle
     Age in months

Accident Year


   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

Prior

   1,585,212    1,681,015    1,827,385    1,936,056    2,052,280    2,089,454    2,122,289    2,285,922    2,358,383    2,485,947

1995

   176,749    263,979    291,182    320,265    338,297    344,747    354,596    356,262    357,130    357,495

1996

   90,312    129,518    142,202    158,158    181,837    201,504    237,966    246,056    246,766     

1997

   126,468    181,078    207,614    223,294    234,839    246,125    250,535    253,181          

1998

   147,711    232,256    259,434    285,628    310,933    326,048    329,208               

1999

   92,696    135,204    161,084    201,324    221,534    226,310                    

2000

   38,655    81,080    132,587    136,337    134,073                         

2001

   29,314    61,633    70,709    83,947                              

2002

   55,829    124,162    128,191                                   

2003

   100,487    115,207                                        

2004

   162,638                                             

 

Net Earned Premium

 

Accident Year


   NEP

1995

   500,367

1996

   440,394

1997

   418,079

1998

   450,868

1999

   347,951

2000

   210,985

2001

   272,491

2002

   376,383

2003

   616,471

2004

   907,641

 

NA WC

 

    Page 16


LOGO   

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Insurance North American General Liability

As of 12/31/04

In $US thousands

  
  
  

 

Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle
     Age in months

Accident Year


   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

Prior

   0    574,241    1,324,849    1,990,227    2,836,526    3,322,427    3,627,815    3,901,504    4,216,970    4,444,911

1995

   24,613    79,662    108,834    134,016    163,599    188,290    203,070    209,914    206,316    211,429

1996

   10,573    45,719    87,763    134,029    175,107    195,408    214,931    232,302    239,179     

1997

   7,440    46,189    79,990    107,634    137,239    168,675    193,956    222,769          

1998

   13,142    50,869    132,182    183,642    175,371    221,123    221,936               

1999

   29,751    128,373    195,504    227,899    278,121    280,523                    

2000

   54,815    111,223    136,657    236,320    308,563                         

2001

   26,416    120,539    136,132    141,025                              

2002

   31,960    111,492    150,381                                   

2003

   42,103    204,609                                        

2004

   67,531                                             
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle
     Age in months

Accident Year


   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

Prior

   1,562,463    2,092,567    2,535,155    2,968,840    3,423,223    3,852,061    4,130,974    4,226,436    4,547,594    4,780,796

1995

   75,271    138,076    168,420    184,432    215,052    253,615    264,683    256,248    261,841    256,922

1996

   49,093    87,594    127,593    160,703    201,209    225,924    245,956    246,359    250,854     

1997

   51,422    131,229    171,376    187,420    221,453    233,564    219,432    241,364          

1998

   43,311    116,462    187,325    248,617    238,783    240,127    245,100               

1999

   64,339    178,046    251,393    294,813    317,345    348,681                    

2000

   87,674    198,297    301,701    351,784    399,432                         

2001

   67,092    204,533    254,139    327,586                              

2002

   85,013    143,747    327,657                                   

2003

   76,795    293,908                                        

2004

   173,149                                             

 

Net Earned Premium

 

Accident Year


   NEP

1995

   632,061

1996

   612,687

1997

   534,235

1998

   473,156

1999

   467,414

2000

   389,906

2001

   307,359

2002

   692,220

2003

   1,272,178

2004

   1,557,941

 

NA GL

 

    Page 17


LOGO   

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Insurance North American Other Casualty

As of 12/31/04

In $US thousands

  
  
  

 

Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle

 

     Age in months

Accident Year


   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

Prior

   0    533,224    913,831    1,147,145    1,382,722    1,519,158    1,649,408    1,753,318    1,824,162    1,817,158

1995

   213,795    425,704    514,518    579,937    603,454    623,158    636,231    643,150    645,716    651,046

1996

   265,380    515,730    603,538    655,034    686,938    713,885    722,781    728,364    729,945     

1997

   192,581    334,286    402,049    438,554    462,987    476,200    492,325    501,472          

1998

   221,004    384,190    475,275    536,587    573,086    595,824    600,393               

1999

   170,153    281,358    352,230    397,033    424,236    448,673                    

2000

   206,932    345,811    386,404    423,935    466,658                         

2001

   100,954    196,661    249,648    277,455                              

2002

   107,727    178,663    219,575                                   

2003

   122,164    181,490                                        

2004

   136,816                                             
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle
     Age in months

Accident Year


   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

Prior

   1,195,585    1,386,886    1,520,786    1,568,524    1,754,732    1,861,010    1,968,063    2,148,446    2,130,362    2,388,429

1995

   430,676    560,818    599,251    634,495    634,014    638,157    641,056    651,382    653,421    655,220

1996

   479,842    627,543    696,402    706,834    717,953    732,486    732,975    737,775    736,901     

1997

   336,590    425,986    474,054    492,136    502,304    511,487    522,330    529,765          

1998

   424,239    535,121    586,906    614,882    628,312    643,863    642,351               

1999

   309,653    370,661    409,171    445,751    456,596    487,059                    

2000

   322,566    405,289    417,440    454,880    471,953                         

2001

   153,867    241,054    288,432    316,616                              

2002

   186,298    243,031    258,946                                   

2003

   190,667    223,308                                        

2004

   226,488                                             

 

Net Earned Premium

 

Accident Year


   NEP

1995

   991,968

1996

   905,631

1997

   749,668

1998

   621,196

1999

   573,303

2000

   477,137

2001

   409,414

2002

   549,858

2003

   666,567

2004

   582,699

 

NA Other Cas

 

    Page 18


LOGO   

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Insurance North American Non-Casualty

As of 12/31/04

In $US thousands

  
  
  

 

Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle
     Age in months

Accident Year


   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

Prior

   0    91,010    126,103    154,856    152,003    166,681    168,647    171,947    176,642    180,815

1995

   142,861    233,173    247,504    260,069    265,709    266,570    268,528    268,005    274,047    273,955

1996

   141,177    223,297    243,966    259,150    257,703    258,976    260,869    262,363    262,400     

1997

   132,772    207,919    239,115    241,368    246,191    253,664    253,911    253,854          

1998

   195,179    320,804    345,873    355,504    359,673    363,474    362,651               

1999

   181,219    260,443    276,591    284,839    288,134    291,750                    

2000

   263,407    377,650    385,761    393,274    392,855                         

2001

   203,353    274,329    267,642    290,965                              

2002

   300,325    398,959    471,275                                   

2003

   381,571    505,290                                        

2004

   402,107                                             
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle
     Age in months

Accident Year


   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

Prior

   142,378    198,924    193,906    233,982    235,496    239,067    245,650    180,496    201,869    208,134

1995

   205,516    241,123    253,330    263,901    266,683    267,063    272,026    268,837    274,305    274,517

1996

   271,334    269,817    274,311    278,709    275,114    268,597    269,644    270,513    270,531     

1997

   220,517    252,689    260,495    251,069    250,433    252,916    252,833    252,630          

1998

   340,379    347,466    352,639    356,434    362,515    365,842    364,714               

1999

   238,012    307,602    292,092    299,164    292,283    302,598                    

2000

   396,065    435,497    435,220    423,740    408,262                         

2001

   212,241    306,564    295,381    322,006                              

2002

   329,295    407,769    477,040                                   

2003

   469,553    583,543                                        

2004

   591,736                                             

 

Net Earned Premium

 

Accident Year


   NEP

1995

   434,215

1996

   510,800

1997

   530,090

1998

   535,981

1999

   517,344

2000

   668,816

2001

   618,312

2002

   809,043

2003

   1,080,725

2004

   1,606,098

 

NA NCas

 

    Page 19


LOGO   

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Highlights - Insurance Overseas General Segment

  

 

Insurance Overseas General Segment

 

The Insurance Overseas General segment includes business written by ACE International and ACE Global Markets (AGM). ACE International has four regions, with the majority of the business located in Europe. AGM business is written in the Lloyd’s market and is mostly US business. An important reserving consideration is that, in accordance with standard London Market practice, ACE analyzes its AGM business on a gross underwriting year basis rather than an accident year basis. In order to provide net data on an accident year basis it has been necessary to make a number of assumptions. As noted elsewhere, for the purposes of conducting a reserve analysis, reliance on any purely mechanical methods may produce artificially high or low estimates, and some degree of judgment should be used in selecting factors and in the selection of an overall development pattern.

 

At the previous release we excluded a number of AGM classes from this segment due to complications involved with extracting the historical data in the required format. Since that time we have been able to remedy these issues and extract data for the following classes within AGM - Personal Accident, Energy, Property and Casualty for accident years 1996 and prior.

 

At the previous release, the starting point for ACE International was active business. For completeness and consistency with other segments, we have included some discontinued lines and small countries at this release.

 

We have compiled the triangles in original currency and then converted to $US at December 2004 exchange rates for all historical data. This approach removes the impact of currency fluctuations from historical development trends.

 

Insurance Overseas General – Casualty

 

The majority of the exposures consist of General Liability and Professional Liability from both ACE International and AGM. As noted in the Insurance North American discussion, there was a hardening of the Professional Liability market in the last four years, and any analysis should reflect these changes in price adequacy. Also included in this triangle are relatively smaller amounts of Auto Liability, Employers Liability, Marine, Aviation, and Political Risk.

 

The strong growth in recent years has been accompanied by a shift in mix, with Professional Lines and European business being areas of stronger growth. An appropriate valuation basis should reflect the impact of these changes on loss development factors.

 

Insurance Overseas General – Non-Casualty

 

These triangles consist entirely of Property and Energy losses. The addition of AGM data this year has increased the premium volume in this segment by around 70%, without altering the loss trends significantly.

 

Insurance Overseas General – Personal Accident

 

This is mostly traditional accident business with no health insurance component. In recent years over 95% of this business has been written by ACE International, up from 85-90% in the late 1990s. Although relatively small, the inclusion of the AGM data means we now have a complete set of data.

 

Highlights OG

 

    Page 20


LOGO   

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Insurance Overseas General Casualty

As of 12/31/04

In $US thousands

  
  
  

 

Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle
     Age in months

Accident Year


   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

Prior

   0    147,440    259,108    347,361    407,464    451,431    477,031    500,737    520,440    530,964

1995

   225,448    376,123    451,593    501,847    543,081    574,644    591,320    597,889    602,307    604,103

1996

   258,236    431,328    503,353    571,375    616,070    646,391    674,056    687,227    689,555     

1997

   237,194    403,452    474,471    524,860    577,461    622,293    636,540    640,837          

1998

   267,583    429,636    503,412    571,086    612,195    641,400    657,422               

1999

   247,455    418,655    502,633    556,756    603,663    630,435                    

2000

   286,982    532,253    672,096    760,866    842,106                         

2001

   230,275    452,833    571,227    698,287                              

2002

   197,397    395,823    515,833                                   

2003

   171,413    327,562                                        

2004

   163,356                                             
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle
     Age in months

Accident Year


   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

Prior

   369,044    470,637    530,297    540,949    562,417    573,125    601,232    590,253    602,186    597,185

1995

   378,485    525,193    563,597    594,115    620,732    633,849    635,916    629,117    627,871    625,363

1996

   423,517    583,312    639,217    678,921    698,898    720,105    716,360    729,177    725,364     

1997

   390,248    555,037    599,130    637,305    671,434    686,896    699,256    697,369          

1998

   432,278    582,168    643,481    694,653    718,947    721,639    721,162               

1999

   403,736    576,346    645,004    678,123    704,850    713,182                    

2000

   457,887    740,615    890,320    971,402    1,055,388                         

2001

   436,494    686,402    830,381    943,117                              

2002

   387,628    620,851    755,227                                   

2003

   344,084    506,646                                        

2004

   366,852                                             

 

Net Earned Premium

 

Accident Year


   NEP

1995

   1,466,517

1996

   1,464,992

1997

   1,231,022

1998

   1,117,254

1999

   1,058,861

2000

   1,165,561

2001

   1,302,952

2002

   1,504,868

2003

   1,730,062

2004

   1,942,247

 

OG Cas

 

    Page 21


LOGO   

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Insurance Overseas General Non-Casualty

As of 12/31/04

In $US thousands

  
  
  

 

Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle
     Age in months

Accident Year


   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

Prior

   0    61,186    95,174    110,457    114,269    115,420    117,896    115,158    117,849    117,841

1995

   160,147    306,824    350,821    365,332    367,197    367,767    376,078    374,254    375,693    376,635

1996

   152,822    283,812    316,462    326,702    329,550    334,639    338,140    337,458    336,541     

1997

   175,155    333,391    380,981    407,366    420,929    436,135    441,275    448,413          

1998

   230,976    430,072    490,259    519,533    540,836    541,742    541,784               

1999

   190,667    419,564    508,132    551,228    557,922    561,713                    

2000

   206,173    458,529    571,582    604,378    612,234                         

2001

   160,932    407,307    479,533    501,440                              

2002

   169,068    359,562    435,424                                   

2003

   139,992    369,593                                        

2004

   213,561                                             
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle
     Age in months

Accident Year


   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

Prior

   151,363    151,077    144,302    147,016    140,870    135,539    134,257    129,275    128,065    128,268

1995

   331,500    386,200    388,132    388,149    385,671    379,656    382,596    379,278    379,043    379,520

1996

   299,479    342,181    346,857    346,532    345,609    348,388    346,761    344,804    341,891     

1997

   365,016    417,116    441,884    447,544    456,793    460,241    463,123    462,679          

1998

   443,762    550,130    558,958    560,210    556,954    558,183    556,590               

1999

   424,636    578,663    580,660    578,607    575,710    581,525                    

2000

   516,000    637,526    649,406    651,020    648,841                         

2001

   468,907    539,499    529,684    526,466                              

2002

   382,004    480,598    482,756                                   

2003

   398,135    502,053                                        

2004

   508,253                                             

 

Net Earned Premium

 

Accident Year


   NEP

1995

   834,455

1996

   781,624

1997

   753,807

1998

   703,657

1999

   633,674

2000

   600,526

2001

   671,358

2002

   892,063

2003

   1,264,121

2004

   1,402,308

 

OG NCas

 

    Page 22


LOGO   

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Insurance Overseas General Personal Accident

As of 12/31/04

In $US thousands

  
  
  

 

Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle
     Age in months

Accident Year


   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

Prior

   0    46,242    66,933    78,295    83,447    89,682    94,250    95,594    98,454    97,959

1995

   94,732    166,554    189,853    199,173    203,762    205,175    207,878    208,602    209,444    210,187

1996

   93,047    163,492    182,941    191,411    194,713    197,819    199,836    200,521    201,403     

1997

   98,171    173,996    204,500    213,813    220,825    224,601    225,272    226,416          

1998

   124,705    216,922    247,734    263,334    267,277    269,874    272,792               

1999

   111,195    205,485    236,355    247,660    255,116    259,962                    

2000

   126,537    240,473    283,136    299,527    308,522                         

2001

   113,841    228,290    270,530    296,137                              

2002

   121,214    227,768    278,818                                   

2003

   128,214    248,155                                        

2004

   131,523                                             
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle
     Age in months

Accident Year


   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

Prior

   63,907    88,705    97,357    99,124    101,640    101,801    101,937    102,172    102,926    103,133

1995

   143,471    197,136    206,880    211,038    211,090    211,657    212,842    213,171    213,007    214,108

1996

   135,029    190,324    201,375    203,023    203,069    204,832    205,103    205,673    205,328     

1997

   150,616    205,187    224,378    227,037    230,145    230,888    231,487    231,316          

1998

   178,883    249,814    270,133    275,715    276,269    278,784    279,946               

1999

   165,306    242,106    261,182    267,671    270,440    273,777                    

2000

   176,751    289,146    312,159    324,207    330,263                         

2001

   186,416    273,941    309,804    328,778                              

2002

   191,727    302,802    321,887                                   

2003

   217,203    309,778                                        

2004

   208,097                                             

 

Net Earned Premium

 

Accident Year


   NEP

1995

   513,517

1996

   529,491

1997

   636,823

1998

   604,179

1999

   631,965

2000

   617,963

2001

   665,534

2002

   773,713

2003

   872,676

2004

   986,983

 

OG PA

 

    Page 23


LOGO   

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Highlights - Global Re Segment

  

 

Global Re Segment

 

The Global Re segment contains the business written by Tempest USA, Tempest Bermuda, and Tempest Europe. Tempest USA writes a North American treaty reinsurance book covering nearly all lines and is sourced through reinsurance brokers. Tempest Bermuda was founded in 1993 and writes catastrophe reinsurance, primarily Property coverages. Tempest Europe writes a worldwide portfolio of Marine, Aviation, Property and Casualty business.

 

Unlike the rest of the triangles, the data for Global Re is presented on a treaty year basis, not on an accident year basis. A feature of treaty year data is that individual treaties can incept at any time during a given treaty year. Therefore a full treaty year can typically take up to 36 months to fully earn, and possibly longer if the year contains multi-year contracts. Since reserves should only be established for the earned portion of each treaty year, care should be taken not to fully develop the more recent treaty years without excluding the unearned portion of that treaty year.

 

Global Re Property (previously Non-Casualty)

 

Prior to policy year 2001, all of the loss experience relates to Tempest Bermuda and is therefore all Property Catastrophe related. In the policy years subsequent to 2001, the Property Per Risk and Energy books have grown substantially. However Property Catastrophe business still makes up the majority of the portfolio on all treaty years.

 

Global Re Non-Property (previously Casualty)

 

This portfolio consists of a wide range of business including General Casualty, Auto, Professional Liability, Medical Malpractice, Credit, Aviation and Marine.

 

Given the short history of Global Re in Casualty lines of business, there are only five treaty years of loss and ALAE experience to date, and given the long-tail nature of the business, it is difficult to perform any meaningful analysis, especially with loss development methods. Compounding this limitation is the fact that this portfolio grew rapidly in its first few years and therefore the loss development experience emerging from the initial treaty years is not necessarily a good guide for the later years. Other methods, such as a pure Expected Loss Ratio or Bornhuetter-Ferguson, may be more appropriate. A readily available source for loss development factors would be the Reinsurance Association of America (RAA).

 

Highlights GR

 

    Page 24


LOGO   

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Global Re Property

As of 12/31/04

In $US thousands

  
  
  

 

Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle
     Age in months

Treaty Year


   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

Prior

   0    11,878    15,831    19,728    21,627    21,669    22,129    22,480    23,922    25,041

1995

   18,143    50,333    60,549    68,505    70,235    70,792    71,253    71,255    71,288    71,322

1996

   15,181    24,816    25,336    25,681    25,677    25,871    25,880    25,878    28,695     

1997

   6,022    10,947    14,006    17,689    17,972    18,003    17,940    17,919          

1998

   26,108    70,361    92,174    93,105    93,212    91,368    91,355               

1999

   22,022    55,439    49,489    51,385    51,593    51,371                    

2000

   8,966    34,228    47,308    51,729    51,727                         

2001

   26,908    41,329    55,897    68,583                              

2002

   26,844    76,229    116,288                                   

2003

   30,370    68,217                                        

2004

   164,591                                             
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle
     Age in months

Treaty Year


   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

   72

   84

   96

   108

   120

Prior

   16,763    19,770    20,691    23,315    23,559    23,512    23,625    22,973    24,488    25,466

1995

   59,822    61,479    65,569    70,316    71,093    71,096    71,417    71,367    71,342    71,323

1996

   25,170    26,335    25,894    25,969    25,807    25,992    26,105    26,014    28,738     

1997

   11,311    15,676    18,726    18,974    19,063    18,705    18,673    18,507          

1998

   34,201    87,823    96,003    95,470    92,666    92,080    91,882               

1999

   25,639    52,486    53,833    52,052    51,740    51,490                    

2000

   15,767    53,646    53,228    51,063    55,199                         

2001

   46,561    49,573    57,130    68,475                              

2002

   73,884    118,083    139,463                                   

2003

   56,526    103,810                                        

2004

   244,972                                             

 

Net Earned Premium

 

Treaty Year


   NEP

1995

   162,156

1996

   127,166

1997

   118,784

1998

   156,995

1999

   152,699

2000

   231,263

2001

   356,934

2002

   585,541

2003

   624,871

2004

   384,444

 

GR Prop

 

    Page 25


LOGO   

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Global Re Non-Property

As of 12/31/04

In $US thousands

  
  
  

 

Paid Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle
     Age in months

Treaty Year


   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

     72

     84

     96

     108

     120

Prior

   0    0    0    0    0      0      0      0      0      0

1995

   0    0    0    0    0      0      0      0      0      0

1996

   0    0    0    0    0      0      0      0      0       

1997

   0    0    0    0    0      0      0      0              

1998

   0    0    0    0    0      0      0                     

1999

   0    0    0    0    0      0                            

2000

   946    4,895    10,425    13,762    21,479                                   

2001

   262    8,561    22,457    34,358                                        

2002

   1,555    14,976    41,423                                             

2003

   4,268    37,816                                                  

2004

   10,522                                                       
Reported Loss + Paid ALAE Triangle
     Age in months

Treaty Year


   12

   24

   36

   48

   60

     72

     84

     96

     108

     120

Prior

   0    0    0    0    0      0      0      0      0      0

1995

   0    0    0    0    0      0      0      0      0      0

1996

   0    0    0    0    0      0      0      0      0       

1997

   0    0    0    0    0      0      0      0              

1998

   0    0    0    0    0      0      0                     

1999

   0    0    0    0    0      0                            

2000

   1,669    10,779    16,659    20,027    31,229                                   

2001

   6,196    20,730    36,689    58,459                                        

2002

   9,627    37,260    106,451                                             

2003

   19,543    108,698                                                  

2004

   37,604                                                       

 

Net Earned Premium

 

Treaty Year


   NEP

1995

   0

1996

   0

1997

   0

1998

   0

1999

   0

2000

   32,858

2001

   147,294

2002

   414,375

2003

   624,018

2004

   304,189

 

GR NProp

 

    Page 26


LOGO   

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Selected Excerpts based upon ACE’s 2004 10-K/A Disclosure

  

 

As an insurance and reinsurance company, we are required, under GAAP, to establish loss reserves for the estimated unpaid portion of the ultimate liability for losses and loss expenses under the terms of our policies and agreements with our insured and reinsured customers. These reserves include estimates for both claims that have been reported and those that have been incurred but not reported (IBNR), and include estimates of expenses associated with processing and settling these claims. At December 31 2004, the unpaid losses and loss expense reserve was $31.5 billion. We do not discount our loss reserves, except for net loss and loss expense reserves of $157 million representing structured settlements for which the timing and amount of future claim payments are reliably determinable.

 

The process of establishing reserves for property and casualty claims can be complex and is subject to considerable variability as it requires the use of informed estimates and judgments. These estimates and judgments are based on numerous factors, and may be revised as additional experience and other data become available and are reviewed, as new or improved methodologies are developed or as current laws change. We have actuarial staff in each of our operating segments who analyze insurance reserves and regularly evaluate the levels of loss reserves, taking into consideration factors that may impact the ultimate loss reserves. The potential for variation in loss reserves is impacted by numerous factors, which we explain below.

 

We estimate loss reserves for all of the insurance and reinsurance business that we write. In most cases, we do not have all the necessary information to determine the ultimate settlement value for a claim at the time we are required to accrue for the loss. As a result, historical experience and other statistical information are used to estimate the ultimate cost of the loss, depending on the type of business. To determine carried reserves for a particular line of business, we may perform one or more reserving methods to estimate ultimate losses and loss expenses and use the results to select a single point estimate. These methods may include, but are not necessarily limited to, extrapolations of our historical reported and paid loss data, application of industry loss development patterns to our reported or paid losses, expected loss ratios developed by management, or historical industry loss ratios.

 

Underlying judgments and assumptions that may be incorporated into these actuarial methods include, but are not necessarily limited to, adjustments to historical data used in models to exclude aberrations in claims data such as catastrophes that are typically analyzed separately, application of tail factors used to project ultimate claims from historical loss experience when there are several data points to use, adjustments to actuarial models and related data for known business changes, such as changes in claims covered under insurance contracts, and the effect of recent or pending litigation on future claim settlements.

 

The process of determining a single best estimate by product, when more than one estimate is developed in the course of the actuarial review, may be performed in several ways. However, the objective of such process, which is consistently applied to all product lines, is to determine a single best estimate that we believe represents a better estimate than any other. Such estimate is viewed to support the most likely outcome of ultimate loss settlements and is determined based on several factors, including but not limited to, the extent of historical data and reliance on such data within the underlying reserve methodology, historical accuracy of loss estimates compared with actual loss experience for the product line or comparable product lines, and nature and extent of underlying assumptions.

 

The actuaries’ evaluation process to determine a best estimate involves collaboration with underwriting, claims and finance departments and culminates with the input of reserve committees. Each reserve committee includes the participation of the business unit’s actuary, financial management and executive management and has the responsibility for finalizing and approving the point estimate to be used as our best estimate. Reserves are further reviewed by ACE’s Chief Actuary and senior management.

 

10-K (1)

 

    Page 27


LOGO   

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Selected Excerpts based upon ACE’s 2004 10-K/A Disclosure

  

 

The following is a discussion of specific reserving considerations by type of claim:

 

Short-Tail Business, such as Property Coverages

 

Short-tail business describes lines of business for which losses are usually known and paid shortly after the loss actually occurs. This would include, for example, most property, personal accident, aviation hull and automobile physical damage policies that are written. Typically, there is less variability in reserve estimates for these lines of business.

 

Long-Tail Business, such as Casualty Coverages

 

Long-tail business describes lines of business for which specific losses may not be known for some period and losses take much longer to emerge. This includes most casualty lines such as general liability, directors and officers liability (D&O) and workers’ compensation. There are many factors contributing to the uncertainty and volatility of long-tail business. Among these are:

 

  Given the recent expansion of this business, historical experience is often too immature to place reliance upon for reserving purposes. Instead, particularly for newer lines of business, reserve methods are based on industry loss ratios or development patterns that reflect the nature and coverage of the underwritten business and its future development. For new or growing lines of business, actual loss experience is apt to differ from industry loss statistics that are based on averages as well as loss experience of previous underwriting years;

 

  The inherent uncertainty of the length of paid and reporting development patterns; •

 

  The possibility of future litigation, legislative or judicial change that might impact future loss experience relative to prior loss experience relied upon in loss reserve analyses;

 

  Loss reserve analyses typically require loss or other data be grouped by common characteristics in some manner. If data from two combined lines of business exhibit different characteristics, such as loss payment patterns, the credibility of the reserve estimate could be affected. Because casualty lines of business can have various intricacies in their underlying coverage, there is an inherent risk as to the homogeneity of the underlying data used in performing reserve analyses.

 

The interested reader is referred to ACE’s 2004 Form 10-K/A for additional information on the reserving process.

 

10-K (2)

 

    Page 28


LOGO   

ACE Limited 2004 Global Loss Triangles

Glossary

  

 

Accident year (AY): Relates to all losses occurring within a given twelve-month period, regardless of when the loss was reported or booked.

 

Bornhuetter-Ferguson method: Estimates unpaid (unreported) losses for a given accident/treaty year based on an expected ultimate and the percentage of losses currently unpaid (unreported).

 

Claims made basis: An insurance form where the date the loss is reported to the insurer is deemed to be the date of the loss event, regardless of when the loss occurred.

 

Integrated occurrence: Two or more separate occurrences defined in a policy as a single occurrence. For example, a number of individual lawsuits arising over several years from a single faulty product might be defined as one occurrence under policy language.

 

Occurrence basis: An insurance form where the date the loss occurred is deemed to be the date of the loss event, regardless of when the claim is reported to the insurer.

 

Retroactive reinsurance: An arrangement whereby a reinsurer assumes liability incurred as a result of past events (i.e. a loss portfolio transfer).

 

Treaty year (TY): Relates to all losses associated with policies that incepted within a given twelve-month period.

 

Year of Account (YOA) : Terminology specific to Lloyd’s business; the year to which an individual risk is allocated based on the calendar year in which it was first signed.

 

Glossary

 

    Page 29