-----BEGIN PRIVACY-ENHANCED MESSAGE----- Proc-Type: 2001,MIC-CLEAR Originator-Name: webmaster@www.sec.gov Originator-Key-Asymmetric: MFgwCgYEVQgBAQICAf8DSgAwRwJAW2sNKK9AVtBzYZmr6aGjlWyK3XmZv3dTINen TWSM7vrzLADbmYQaionwg5sDW3P6oaM5D3tdezXMm7z1T+B+twIDAQAB MIC-Info: RSA-MD5,RSA, BY7t4LCC81yFACJsH8Fx3TjgcsUmKfdW4qwlLx6QN0dOogbGipW5BIQKMd2PYDUU N4jnxisgj75ZfCl3W/E+KA== 0000895126-08-000484.txt : 20081103 0000895126-08-000484.hdr.sgml : 20081103 20081103065916 ACCESSION NUMBER: 0000895126-08-000484 CONFORMED SUBMISSION TYPE: 8-K/A PUBLIC DOCUMENT COUNT: 2 CONFORMED PERIOD OF REPORT: 20081030 ITEM INFORMATION: Results of Operations and Financial Condition ITEM INFORMATION: Financial Statements and Exhibits FILED AS OF DATE: 20081103 DATE AS OF CHANGE: 20081103 FILER: COMPANY DATA: COMPANY CONFORMED NAME: CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORP CENTRAL INDEX KEY: 0000895126 STANDARD INDUSTRIAL CLASSIFICATION: CRUDE PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS [1311] IRS NUMBER: 731395733 STATE OF INCORPORATION: OK FISCAL YEAR END: 1231 FILING VALUES: FORM TYPE: 8-K/A SEC ACT: 1934 Act SEC FILE NUMBER: 001-13726 FILM NUMBER: 081155999 BUSINESS ADDRESS: STREET 1: 6100 N WESTERN AVE CITY: OKLAHOMA CITY STATE: OK ZIP: 73118 BUSINESS PHONE: 4058488000 MAIL ADDRESS: STREET 1: 6100 NORTH WESTERN AVE CITY: OKLAHOMA CITY STATE: OK ZIP: 73118 8-K/A 1 chk11032008_8ka.htm COVER PAGE chk11032008_8ka.htm
 



 
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K/A

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): October 30, 2008


 
CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION
(Exact name of Registrant as specified in its Charter)

Oklahoma
 
1-13726
 
73-1395733
(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)
 
(Commission File No.)
 
(IRS Employer Identification No.)

6100 North Western Avenue, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
 
73118
(Address of principal executive offices)
 
(Zip Code)

 
(405) 848-8000
 
 
(Registrant’s telephone number, including area code)
 

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):
 
*  Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)
 
*  Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)
 
*  Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))
 
*  Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

 
 


 

 
Section 2 – Financial Information

Item 2.02 – Results of Operations and Financial Condition
 
On October 30, 2008, Chesapeake Energy Corporation filed a Current Report on Form 8-K which included a press release providing information regarding financial and operational results for the 2008 third quarter and an updated outlook for 2008, 2009 and 2010.   The purpose of this amendment is to update the outlook for a correction to our estimated 2009 operating cash flow to reflect changes in our hedging positions.  A copy of the amended outlook is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report.  In conjunction with the filing of this Current Report on Form 8-K, we have also updated the outlook on our website at www.chk.com
 
Section 9 – Financial Statements and Exhibits

Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits

(d)  
Exhibits

Exhibit No.
 
Document Description
 
       
99.1
 
Chesapeake Energy Corporation Outlook dated November 3, 2008
 
       
       
       
       
       
       




 
 

 

SIGNATURE

 
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.
 
 
CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORPORATION
 
       
 
By:
/s/ Jennifer M. Grigsby  
    Jennifer M. Grigsby  
   
Senior Vice President, Treasurer and Corporate Secretary
 
       


Date:                      November 3, 2008



 
 

 


EXHIBIT INDEX


Exhibit No.
 
Document Description
 
       
99.1
 
Chesapeake Energy Corporation Outlook dated November 3, 2008
 
       
       
       
       
       
       



EX-99.1 2 chk11032008_991.htm OUTLOOK chk11032008_991.htm
Exhibit 99.1
 
SCHEDULE “A”

CHESAPEAKE’S OUTLOOK AS OF NOVEMBER 3, 2008

Quarter Ending December 31, 2008 and Years Ending December 31, 2009 and 2010.

We have adopted a policy of periodically providing guidance on certain factors that affect our future financial performance.  As of November 3, 2008, we are using the following key assumptions in our projections for the fourth quarter of 2008 and the full years 2009 and 2010.

The sole change from our October 30, 2008 Outlook is the correction of our estimated 2009 operating cash flow to reflect changes in our hedging positions.  The primary changes from our October 14, 2008 Outlook are in italicized bold and are explained as follows:
1)  
Natural gas production assumption for the quarter ending 12/31/08 has been reduced to reflect anticipated voluntary curtailments due to low wellhead price realizations;
2)  
Projected effects of changes in our hedging positions have been updated;
3)  
Our NYMEX natural gas and oil price assumptions for realized hedging effects and estimating future operating cash flow have been reduced for the quarter ending 12/31/08; and
4)  
Certain cost and cash income tax assumptions have been updated.

 
Quarter Ending
12/31/2008
 
Year Ending
12/31/2009
 
Year Ending
12/31/2010
Estimated Production(a)
         
  Natural gas – bcf
188 – 192
 
893 – 913
 
1,032 – 1,072
  Oil – mbbls
2,825
 
12,000
 
13,000
  Natural gas equivalent – bcfe
205 – 209
 
965 – 985
 
1,110 –1,150
           
Daily natural gas equivalent midpoint – mmcfe
2,250
 
2,670
 
3,095
           
Year-over-year production increase
1.4%
 
16.8%
 
15.9%
           
NYMEX Prices (b) (for calculation of realized hedging effects only):
  Natural gas - $/mcf
$7.00
 
$8.00
 
$8.00
  Oil - $/bbl
$60.00
 
$80.00
 
$80.00
Estimated Realized Hedging Effects (based on assumed NYMEX prices above):
  Natural gas - $/mcf
$1.96
 
$0.70
 
$0.82
  Oil - $/bbl
$5.48
 
$1.32
 
$4.79
Estimated Differentials to NYMEX Prices:
         
  Natural gas - $/mcf
10 – 14%
 
10 – 14%
 
10 – 14%
  Oil - $/bbl
5 – 7%
 
5 – 7%
 
5 – 7%
Operating Costs per Mcfe of Projected Production:
  Production expense
$1.00 – 1.15
 
$1.10 – 1.20
 
$1.15 – 1.25
  Production taxes (~ 5% of O&G revenues) (c)
$0.30 – 0.35
 
$0.35 – 0.40
 
$0.35 – 0.40
  General and administrative(d)
$0.33 – 0.37
 
$0.33 – 0.37
 
$0.33 – 0.37
  Stock-based compensation (non-cash)
$0.10 – 0.13
 
$0.10 – 0.12
 
$0.10 – 0.12
  DD&A of natural gas and oil assets
$2.25 – 2.30
 
$2.20 – 2.30
 
$2.15 – 2.25
  Depreciation of other assets
$0.20 – 0.25
 
$0.20 – 0.24
 
$0.20 – 0.24
  Interest expense(e)
$0.30 – 0.35
 
$0.40 – 0.45
 
$0.35 – 0.40
Other Income per Mcfe:
         
  Natural gas and oil marketing income
$0.09 – 0.11
 
$0.09 – 0.11
 
$0.09 – 0.11
  Service operations income
$0.04 – 0.06
 
$0.04 – 0.06
 
$0.04 – 0.06
Book Tax Rate
38.5%
 
38.5%
 
38.5%
Cash Income Taxes – in millions
$550 – 650
 
$200 – 300
 
$200 – 300
           
Equivalent Shares Outstanding – in millions:
         
  Basic
560 – 565
 
565 - 570
 
575 - 580
  Diluted
580 – 585
 
585 - 590
 
595 - 600
 
 

 


 
Cash Flow Projections – in millions
Quarter Ending
12/31/2008
 
Year Ending
12/31/2009
 
Year Ending
12/31/2010
Net inflows:
         
  Operating cash flow before changes in assets and
  liabilities(f)(g)
$1,250 – 1,375
 
$5,350 –5,700
 
$6,250 – 6,750
  Leasehold and producing property transactions:
 
       
      Sale of leasehold and producing properties(a)
$2,100 – 2,500
 
$1,250 – 2,000
 
$1,250 – 2,000
      Sale of producing properties via VPP’s(a)
$400 – 500
 
$1,000 – 1,250
 
$1,000 – 1,250
      Acquisition of leasehold and producing properties
($750 - $1,000)
 
($1,250 - $1,750)
 
($1,000 - $1,500)
      Net leasehold and producing property transactions
$1,750 – 2,000
 
$1,000 – 1,500
 
$1,250 – 1,750
  Debt and equity offerings
 
 
  Midstream financings
$1,050 – 1,275
 
$500 – 700
 
$500 – 700
  Proceeds from investments and other
 
$500– 750
 
$150 – 250
Total Cash Inflows
$4,050 – 4,650
 
$7,350 – 8,650
 
$8,150 – 9,450
           
Net outflows:
         
  Drilling
$1,200 – 1,300
 
$4,250 – 4,750
 
$4,750 – 5,250
  Geophysical costs
$75
 
$225 – 275
 
$225 – 275
  Midstream infrastructure and compression
$300 – 325
 
$1,000 – 1,200
 
$900 – 1,000
  Other PP&E
$50 – 75
 
$250 – 300
 
$250 – 300
  Dividends, senior notes redemption, capitalized
  interest, etc.
$150 – 200
 
$575 – 600
 
$575 – 600
  Cash income taxes
$550 – 650
 
$200 – 300
 
$200 – 300
Total Cash Outflows
$2,325 – 2,625
 
$6,500  – 7,425
 
$6,900 – 7,725
           
Net Cash Change
$1,725 – 2,025
 
$850 – 1,225
 
$1,250 – 1,725
           

(a)  
The 2008 fourth quarter production and cash flow forecasts reflect anticipated sales by the company of: 1) producing properties for approximately $450 million in a volumetric production payment (VPP); and 2) producing properties in South Texas and undeveloped leasehold in the Marcellus Shale and other areas for approximately $2.3 billion.  The 2009 and 2010 production and cash flow forecasts reflect anticipated sales by the company of: 1) producing properties for approximately $1.1 billion in each year in VPP transactions; and 2) undeveloped leasehold or other producing properties for approximately $1.6 billion in each year.
(b)  
NYMEX natural gas prices have been updated for actual contract prices through October 2008.
(c)  
Severance tax per mcfe is based on NYMEX prices of $60.00 per bbl of oil and $6.50 to $7.50 per mcf of natural gas during the 2008 fourth quarter; $80.00 per bbl of oil and $7.50 to $8.50 per mcf of natural gas during 2009; and $80.00 per bbl of oil and $7.50 to $8.50 per mcf of natural gas during 2010.
(d)  
Excludes expenses associated with noncash stock compensation.
(e)  
Does not include gains or losses on interest rate derivatives (SFAS 133).
(f)  
A non-GAAP financial measure.  We are unable to provide a reconciliation to projected cash provided by operating activities, the most comparable GAAP measure, because of uncertainties associated with projecting future changes in assets and liabilities.
(g)  
Assumes NYMEX natural gas prices of $6.50 to $7.50 per mcf and NYMEX oil prices of $60.00 per bbl in the 2008 fourth quarter and NYMEX natural gas prices of $7.00 to $8.00 per mcf and NYMEX oil prices of $80.00 per bbl in 2009 and 2010.

Commodity Hedging Activities

The company utilizes hedging strategies to hedge the price of a portion of its future natural gas and oil production. These strategies include:
(i)  
For swap instruments, Chesapeake receives a fixed price and pays a floating market price to the counterparty.  The fixed-price payment and the floating-price payment are netted, resulting in a net amount due to or from the counterparty.
(ii)  
Basis protection swaps are arrangements that guarantee a price differential for oil or natural gas from a specified delivery point.  For Mid-Continent basis protection swaps, which have negative differentials to NYMEX, Chesapeake receives a payment from the counterparty if the price differential is greater than the stated terms of the contract and pays the counterparty if the price differential is less than the stated terms of the contract.  For Appalachian basis protection swaps, which have positive differentials to NYMEX, Chesapeake receives a payment from the counterparty if the price differential is less than the stated terms of the contract and pays the counterparty if the price differential is greater than the stated terms of the contract.
(iii)  
For knockout swaps, Chesapeake receives a fixed price and pays a floating market price.  The fixed price received by Chesapeake includes a premium in exchange for the possibility to reduce the counterparty’s exposure to zero, in any given month, if the floating market price is lower than certain predetermined knockout prices.
(iv)  
For cap-swaps, Chesapeake receives a fixed price and pays a floating market price.  The fixed price received by Chesapeake includes a premium in exchange for a "cap" limiting the counterparty's exposure.  In other words, there is no limit to Chesapeake's exposure but there is a limit to the downside exposure of the counterparty
(v)  
For written call options, Chesapeake receives a premium from the counterparty in exchange for the sale of a call option.  If the market price exceeds the fixed price of the call option, Chesapeake pays the counterparty such excess.  If the market price settles below the fixed price of the call option, no payment is due from Chesapeake.
(vi)  
Collars contain a fixed floor price (put) and ceiling price (call). If the market price exceeds the call strike price or falls below the put strike price, Chesapeake receives the fixed price and pays the market price.  If the market price is between the call and the put strike price, no payments are due from either party.
(vii)  
A three-way collar contract consists of a standard collar contract plus a written put option with a strike price below the floor price of the collar.  In addition to the settlement of the collar, the put option requires Chesapeake to make a payment to the counterparty equal to the difference between the put option price and the settlement price if the settlement price for any settlement period is below the put option strike price.

Commodity markets are volatile, and as a result, Chesapeake’s hedging activity is dynamic.  As market conditions warrant, the company may elect to settle a hedging transaction prior to its scheduled maturity date and lock in the gain or loss on the transaction.

Chesapeake enters into natural gas and oil derivative transactions in order to mitigate a portion of its exposure to adverse market changes in natural gas and oil prices.  Accordingly, associated gains or losses from the derivative transactions are reflected as adjustments to natural gas and oil sales.  All realized gains and losses from natural gas and oil derivatives are included in natural gas and oil sales in the month of related production.  Pursuant to SFAS 133, certain derivatives do not qualify for designation as cash flow hedges.  Changes in the fair value of these nonqualifying derivatives that occur prior to their maturity (i.e., because of temporary fluctuations in value) are reported currently in the consolidated statement of operations as unrealized gains (losses) within natural gas and oil sales.

Following provisions of SFAS 133, changes in the fair value of derivative instruments designated as cash flow hedges, to the extent effective in offsetting cash flows attributable to hedged risk, are recorded in other comprehensive income until the hedged item is recognized in earnings.  Any change in fair value resulting from ineffectiveness is recognized currently in natural gas and oil sales.

Excluding the swaps assumed in connection with the acquisition of CNR which are described below, the company currently has the following open natural gas swaps in place and also has the following gains (losses) from lifted natural gas swaps:

 
Open Swaps
in Bcf’s
Avg. NYMEX
Strike Price
of Open Swaps
Assuming
Natural Gas
Production
in Bcf’s of:
Open Swap
Positions as a
% of Estimated
Total Natural Gas Production
Total Gains
(Losses) from
Lifted Swaps
($ millions)
Total Lifted Gain
(Loss) per Mcf of
Estimated
Total Natural Gas
Production
Q4 2008
108.2
$9.27
190
57%
$85.2
$0.45
             
Total 2009(1)
327.7
$9.43
903
36%
($36.7)
($0.04)
             
Total 2010(1)
422.6
$9.58
1,052
40%
$33.9
$0.03

(1)  
Certain hedging arrangements include knockout swaps with provisions limiting the counterparty’s exposure below $6.50 covering 9 bcf in 2008 and prices ranging from $5.65 to $7.25 covering 150 bcf in 2009 and $5.45 to $7.40 covering 321 bcf in 2010.
 


The company currently has the following open natural gas collars in place:
 
Open Collars
in Bcf’s
Avg. NYMEX
Floor Price
Avg. NYMEX
Ceiling Price
Assuming
Natural Gas
Production
in Bcf’s of:
Open Collars
as a % of
Estimated Total
Natural Gas
Production
Q4 2008
26.6
$7.75
$9.32
190
14%
           
Total 2009(1)
267.5
$7.21
$9.27
903
30%
           
Total 2010(1)
25.6
$7.71
$11.46
1,052
2%

(1)  
Certain collar arrangements include three-way collars that include written put options with strike prices ranging from $5.00 to $6.00 covering 105 bcf in 2009 and at $6.00 covering 4 bcf in 2010.
 

The company currently has the following natural gas written call options in place:
 
Call Options
in Bcf’s
Avg. NYMEX  
Call Price
Avg. Premium
per mcf
Assuming
Natural Gas
Production
in Bcf’s of:
Call Options
as a % of
Estimated Total
Natural Gas
Production
Q4 2008
32.2
$10.37
$0.74
190
17%
           
Total 2009
216.2
$11.40
$0.63
903
24%
           
Total 2010
231.8
$10.77
$0.72
1,052
22%

The company has the following natural gas basis protection swaps in place:

 
   Mid-Continent
 
   Appalachia
 
     Volume in Bcf’s
 
NYMEX less*:
 
       Volume in Bcf’s
 
NYMEX plus*:
Q4 2008
32.1
 
$0.45
 
5.8
 
$0.33
2009
77.1
 
0.35
 
16.9
 
0.28
2010
 
 
10.2
 
0.26
2011
45.1
 
0.64
 
12.1
 
0.25
2012
43.2
 
0.48
 
 
Totals
197.5
 
$0.46
 
45.0
 
$0.27 
               
* weighted average

We assumed certain liabilities related to open derivative positions in connection with the CNR acquisition in November 2005.  In accordance with SFAS 141, these derivative positions were recorded at fair value in the purchase price allocation as a liability of $592 million ($76 million as of September 30, 2008).  The recognition of the derivative liability and other assumed liabilities resulted in an increase in the total purchase price which was allocated to the assets acquired.  Because of this accounting treatment, only cash settlements for changes in fair value subsequent to the acquisition date for the derivative positions assumed result in adjustments to our natural gas and oil revenues upon settlement.  For example, if the fair value of the derivative positions assumed does not change, then upon the sale of the underlying production and corresponding settlement of the derivative positions, cash would be paid to the counterparties and there would be no adjustment to natural gas and oil revenues related to the derivative positions.  If, however, the actual sales price is different from the price assumed in the original fair value calculation, the difference would be reflected as either a decrease or increase in natural gas and oil revenues, depending upon whether the sales price was higher or lower, respectively, than the prices assumed in the original fair value calculation.  For accounting purposes, the net effect of these acquired hedges is that we hedged the production volumes listed below at their fair values on the date of our acquisition of CNR.

Pursuant to SFAS 149 “Amendment of SFAS 133 on Derivative Instruments and Hedging Activities,” the assumed CNR derivative instruments are deemed to contain a significant financing element and all cash flows associated with these positions are reported as financing activity in the statement of cash flows.



The following details the CNR derivatives (natural gas swaps) we have assumed:

 
Open
Swaps
in Bcf’s
Avg. NYMEX
Strike Price
Of Open
Swaps
(per Mcf)
Avg. Fair
Value Upon
Acquisition of
Open Swaps
(per Mcf)
Initial
Liability
Acquired
(per Mcf)
Assuming
Natural Gas
Production
in Bcf’s of:
Open Swap
Positions as a %
of Estimated Total
Natural Gas
Production
Q4 2008
9.7
$4.66
$7.84
($3.17)
190
5%
             
Total 2009
18.3
$5.18
$7.28
($2.10)
903
2%
             
Note:  Not shown above are collars covering 3.7 bcf of production in 2009 at an average floor and ceiling of $4.50 and $6.00.

The company also has the following crude oil swaps in place:

 
Open
Swaps
in mbbls
Avg. NYMEX
Strike Price
Assuming
Oil
Production
in mbbls of:
Open Swap
Positions as a %
of Estimated
Total Oil Production
Total Gains
(Losses) from
Lifted Swaps
($ millions)
Total Lifted
Gain (Loss)
per bbl of
Estimated
Total Oil
Production
Q4 2008(1)
1,214
$78.09
2,825
43%
($2.3)
($0.81)
             
Total 2009(1)
5,728
$81.19
12,000
48%
$38.5
$3.21
             
Total 2010(1)
4,745
$90.25
13,000
37%

(1)  
Certain hedging arrangements include cap-swaps and knockout swaps with provisions limiting the counterparty’s exposure below prices ranging from $45.00 to $60.00 covering 982 mbbls in 2008, from $50.00 to $60.00 covering 6,038 mbbls in 2009 and $60.00 covering 4,745 mbbls in 2010.

Note: Not shown above are written call options covering 768 mbbls of production in 2008 at a weighted average price of $85.86 for a weighted average premium of $4.05, 5,110 mbbls of production in 2009 at a weighed average price of $133.93 for a weighted average premium of $3.90 and 5,110 mbbls of production in 2010 at a weighed average price of $140.00 for a weighted average premium of $4.46.




SCHEDULE “B”

CHESAPEAKE’S PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AS OF OCTOBER 14, 2008
(PROVIDED FOR REFERENCE ONLY)

NOW SUPERSEDED BY OUTLOOK AS OF NOVEMBER 3, 2008

Quarter Ending December 31, 2008 and Years Ending December 31, 2009 and 2010.

We have adopted a policy of periodically providing guidance on certain factors that affect our future financial performance.  As of October 14, 2008, we are using the following key assumptions in our projections for the fourth quarter of 2008 and the full years 2009 and 2010.

The primary changes from our September 22, 2008 Outlook are in italicized bold and are explained as follows:
1)  
Projected effects of changes in our hedging positions have been updated;
2)  
Certain cost assumptions and budgeted capital expenditure assumptions have been updated;
3)  
Our NYMEX oil price assumption for realized hedging effects and estimating future operating cash flow has been reduced; and
4)  
Shares outstanding have been updated to remove the effects of certain contingent convertible senior notes that are not presently convertible at the current stock price level.

 
Quarter Ending
12/31/2008
 
Year Ending
12/31/2009
 
Year Ending
12/31/2010
Estimated Production(a)
         
  Natural gas – bcf
197 – 201
 
893 – 913
 
1,032 – 1,072
  Oil – mbbls
2,825
 
12,000
 
13,000
  Natural gas equivalent – bcfe
214 – 218
 
965 – 985
 
1,110 –1,150
     
 
   
Daily natural gas equivalent midpoint – mmcfe
2,350
 
2,670
 
3,095
           
Year-over-year production increase
5.9%
 
15.6%
 
15.9%
           
NYMEX Prices (b) (for calculation of realized hedging effects only):
  Natural gas - $/mcf
$7.82
 
$8.00
 
$8.00
  Oil - $/bbl
$80.00
 
$80.00
 
$80.00
Estimated Realized Hedging Effects (based on assumed NYMEX prices above):
  Natural gas - $/mcf
$1.48
 
$1.04
 
$0.82
  Oil - $/bbl
($2.82)
 
$2.42
 
$4.79
Estimated Differentials to NYMEX Prices:
         
  Natural gas - $/mcf
10 – 14%
 
10 – 14%
 
10 – 14%
  Oil - $/bbl
5 – 7%
 
5 – 7%
 
5 – 7%
Operating Costs per Mcfe of Projected Production:
  Production expense
$1.00 – 1.10
 
$1.10 – 1.20
 
$1.15 – 1.25
  Production taxes (~ 5% of O&G revenues) (c)
$0.35 – 0.40
 
$0.35 – 0.40
 
$0.35 – 0.40
  General and administrative(d)
$0.33 – 0.37
 
$0.33 – 0.37
 
$0.33 – 0.37
  Stock-based compensation (non-cash)
$0.10 – 0.12
 
$0.10 – 0.12
 
$0.10 – 0.12
  DD&A of natural gas and oil assets
$2.30 – 2.35
 
$2.20 – 2.30
 
$2.15 – 2.25
  Depreciation of other assets
$0.20 – 0.24
 
$0.20 – 0.24
 
$0.20 – 0.24
  Interest expense(e)
$0.30 – 0.35
 
$0.40 – 0.45
 
$0.35 – 0.40
Other Income per Mcfe:
 
 
 
   
  Natural gas and oil marketing income
$0.09 – 0.11
 
$0.09 – 0.11
 
$0.09 – 0.11
  Service operations income
$0.04 – 0.06
 
$0.04 – 0.06
 
$0.04 – 0.06
Book Tax Rate
38.5%
 
38.5%
 
38.5%
Cash Income Taxes – in millions
$350 - 450
 
$200 – 300
 
$200 – 300
 
 
       
Equivalent Shares Outstanding – in millions:
         
  Basic
560 – 565
 
565 - 570
 
575 - 580
  Diluted
580 – 585
 
585 - 590
 
595 - 600



 
Cash Flow Projections – in millions
Quarter Ending
12/31/2008
 
Year Ending
12/31/2009
 
Year Ending
12/31/2010
Net inflows:
         
  Operating cash flow before changes in assets and
  liabilities(f)(g)
$1,375 – 1,425
 
$5,800 – 6,000
 
$6,250 – 6,750
  Leasehold and producing property transactions:
         
      Sale of leasehold and producing properties(a)
$2,100 – 2,500
 
$1,250 – 2,000
 
$1,250 – 2,000
      Sale of producing properties via VPP’s(a)
$400 – 500
 
$1,000 – 1,250
 
$1,000 – 1,250
      Acquisition of leasehold and producing properties
($750 - $1,000)
 
($1,250 - $1,750)
 
($1,000 - $1,500)
      Net leasehold and producing property transactions
$1,750 – 2,000
 
$1,000 – 1,500
 
$1,250 – 1,750
  Debt and equity offerings
 
 
  Midstream financings
$1,050 – 1,275
 
$500 – 700
 
$500 – 700
  Proceeds from investments and other
 
$500– 750
 
$150 – 250
Total Cash Inflows
$4,175 – 4,700
 
$7,800 – 8,950
 
$8,150 – 9,450
           
Net outflows:
         
  Drilling
$1,200 – 1,300
 
$4,250 – 4,750
 
$4,750 – 5,250
  Geophysical costs
$75
 
$225 – 275
 
$225 – 275
  Midstream infrastructure and compression
$300 – 325
 
$1,000 – 1,200
 
$900 – 1,000
  Other PP&E
$50 – 75
 
$250 – 300
 
$250 – 300
  Dividends, senior notes redemption, capitalized
  interest, etc.
$150 – 200
 
$575 – 600
 
$575 – 600
  Cash income taxes
$350 – 450
 
$200 – 300
 
$200 – 300
Total Cash Outflows
$2,125 – 2,425
 
$6,500  – 7,425
 
$6,900 – 7,725
           
Net Cash Change
$2,050 – 2,275
 
$1,300 –1,525
 
$1,250 – 1,725
           

(a)  
The 2008 fourth quarter production and cash flow forecasts reflect anticipated sales by the company of: 1) producing properties for approximately $450 million in a volumetric production payment (VPP); and 2) producing properties in South Texas and undeveloped leasehold in the Marcellus Shale and other areas for approximately $2.3 billion.  The 2009 and 2010 production and cash flow forecasts reflect anticipated sales by the company of: 1) producing properties for approximately $1.1 billion in each year in VPP transactions; and 2) undeveloped leasehold or other producing properties for approximately $1.6 billion in each year.
(b)  
NYMEX natural gas prices have been updated for actual contract prices through October 2008.
(c)  
Severance tax per mcfe is based on NYMEX prices of $80.00 per bbl of oil and $7.50 to $8.50 per mcf of natural gas during Q4 2008; $80.00 per bbl of oil and $7.50 to $8.50 per mcf of natural gas during 2009; and $80.00 per bbl of oil and $7.50 to $8.50 per mcf of natural gas during 2010.
(d)  
Excludes expenses associated with noncash stock compensation.
(e)  
Does not include gains or losses on interest rate derivatives (SFAS 133).
(f)  
A non-GAAP financial measure.  We are unable to provide a reconciliation to projected cash provided by operating activities, the most comparable GAAP measure, because of uncertainties associated with projecting future changes in assets and liabilities.
(g)  
Assumes NYMEX natural gas of $7.00 to $8.00 per mcf and NYMEX oil prices of $80.00 per bbl.

Commodity Hedging Activities

The company utilizes hedging strategies to hedge the price of a portion of its future natural gas and oil production.
These strategies include:

(i)  
For swap instruments, Chesapeake receives a fixed price and pays a floating market price to the counterparty.  The fixed-price payment and the floating-price payment are netted, resulting in a net amount due to or from the counterparty.
(ii)  
Basis protection swaps are arrangements that guarantee a price differential for oil or natural gas from a specified delivery point.  For Mid-Continent basis protection swaps, which have negative differentials to NYMEX, Chesapeake receives a payment from the counterparty if the price differential is greater than the stated terms of the contract and pays the counterparty if the price differential is less than the stated terms of the contract.  For Appalachian basis protection swaps, which have positive differentials to NYMEX, Chesapeake receives a payment from the counterparty if the price differential is less than the stated terms of the contract and pays the counterparty if the price differential is greater than the stated terms of the contract.
(iii)  
For knockout swaps, Chesapeake receives a fixed price and pays a floating market price.  The fixed price received by Chesapeake includes a premium in exchange for the possibility to reduce the counterparty’s exposure to zero, in any given month, if the floating market price is lower than certain predetermined knockout prices.
(iv)  
For cap-swaps, Chesapeake receives a fixed price and pays a floating market price.  The fixed price received by Chesapeake includes a premium in exchange for a "cap" limiting the counterparty's exposure.  In other words, there is no limit to Chesapeake's exposure but there is a limit to the downside exposure of the counterparty
(v)  
For written call options, Chesapeake receives a premium from the counterparty in exchange for the sale of a call option.  If the market price exceeds the fixed price of the call option, Chesapeake pays the counterparty such excess.  If the market price settles below the fixed price of the call option, no payment is due from Chesapeake.
(vi)  
Collars contain a fixed floor price (put) and ceiling price (call). If the market price exceeds the call strike price or falls below the put strike price, Chesapeake receives the fixed price and pays the market price.  If the market price is between the call and the put strike price, no payments are due from either party.
(vii)  
A three-way collar contract consists of a standard collar contract plus a written put option with a strike price below the floor price of the collar.  In addition to the settlement of the collar, the put option requires Chesapeake to make a payment to the counterparty equal to the difference between the put option price and the settlement price if the settlement price for any settlement period is below the put option strike price.

Commodity markets are volatile, and as a result, Chesapeake’s hedging activity is dynamic.  As market conditions warrant, the company may elect to settle a hedging transaction prior to its scheduled maturity date and lock in the gain or loss on the transaction.

Chesapeake enters into natural gas and oil derivative transactions in order to mitigate a portion of its exposure to adverse market changes in natural gas and oil prices.  Accordingly, associated gains or losses from the derivative transactions are reflected as adjustments to natural gas and oil sales.  All realized gains and losses from natural gas and oil derivatives are included in natural gas and oil sales in the month of related production.  Pursuant to SFAS 133, certain derivatives do not qualify for designation as cash flow hedges.  Changes in the fair value of these nonqualifying derivatives that occur prior to their maturity (i.e., because of temporary fluctuations in value) are reported currently in the consolidated statement of operations as unrealized gains (losses) within natural gas and oil sales.

Following provisions of SFAS 133, changes in the fair value of derivative instruments designated as cash flow hedges, to the extent effective in offsetting cash flows attributable to hedged risk, are recorded in other comprehensive income until the hedged item is recognized in earnings.  Any change in fair value resulting from ineffectiveness is recognized currently in natural gas and oil sales.

Excluding the swaps assumed in connection with the acquisition of CNR which are described below, the company currently has the following open natural gas swaps in place and also has the following gains (losses) from lifted natural gas swaps:

 
Open Swaps
in Bcf’s
Avg. NYMEX
Strike Price
of Open Swaps
Assuming
Natural Gas
Production
in Bcf’s of:
Open Swap
Positions as a
% of Estimated
Total Natural Gas Production
Total Gains
(Losses) from
Lifted Swaps
($ millions)
Total Lifted Gain
(Loss) per Mcf of
Estimated
Total Natural Gas
Production
Q4 2008
110.6
$9.30
199
56%
$79.70
$0.40
             
Total 2009(1)
533.0
$9.46
903
59%
($36.70)
($0.04)
             
Total 2010(1)
422.6
$9.58
1,052
40%
$33.90
$0.03

(1)  
Certain hedging arrangements include knockout swaps with provisions limiting the counterparty’s exposure below prices ranging from $5.45 to $6.50 covering 35 bcf in 2008, $5.45 to $7.25 covering 356 bcf in 2009 and $5.45 to $7.40 covering 318 bcf in 2010.
 


The company currently has the following open natural gas collars in place:
 
Open Collars
in Bcf’s
Avg. NYMEX
Floor Price
Avg. NYMEX
Ceiling Price
Assuming
Natural Gas P
roduction
in Bcf’s of:
Open Collars
as a % of
Estimated Total
Natural Gas
Production
Q4 2008
26.6
$7.75
$9.32
199
13%
           
Total 2009(1)
63.9
$8.05
$11.18
903
7%
           
Total 2010(1)
25.6
$7.71
$11.46
1,052
2%

(1)  
Certain collar arrangements include three-way collars that include written put options with strike prices ranging from $5.50 to $6.00 covering 38 bcf in 2009 and at $6.00 covering 4 bcf in 2010.
 

The company currently has the following natural gas written call options in place:

 
Call Options
in Bcf’s
Avg. NYMEX  
Call Price
Avg. Premium
per mcf
Assuming
Natural Gas
Production
in Bcf’s of:
Call Options
as a % of
Estimated Total
Natural Gas
Production
Q4 2008
34.0
$10.39
$0.70
199
17%
           
Total 2009
225.5
$11.37
$0.61
903
25%
           
Total 2010
231.8
$10.77
$0.72
1,052
22%

The company has the following natural gas basis protection swaps in place:

 
   Mid-Continent
 
   Appalachia
 
     Volume in Bcf’s
 
NYMEX less*:
 
       Volume in Bcf’s
 
NYMEX plus*:
Q4 2008
32.1
 
$0.45
 
5.8
 
$0.33
2009
77.1
 
0.35
 
16.9
 
0.28
2010
 
 
10.2
 
0.26
2011
45.1
 
0.64
 
12.1
 
0.25
2012
43.2
 
0.48
 
 
Totals
197.5
 
$0.46
 
45.0
 
$0.27
               
* weighted average

We assumed certain liabilities related to open derivative positions in connection with the CNR acquisition in November 2005.  In accordance with SFAS 141, these derivative positions were recorded at fair value in the purchase price allocation as a liability of $592 million ($102 million as of June 30, 2008).  The recognition of the derivative liability and other assumed liabilities resulted in an increase in the total purchase price which was allocated to the assets acquired.  Because of this accounting treatment, only cash settlements for changes in fair value subsequent to the acquisition date for the derivative positions assumed result in adjustments to our natural gas and oil revenues upon settlement.  For example, if the fair value of the derivative positions assumed does not change, then upon the sale of the underlying production and corresponding settlement of the derivative positions, cash would be paid to the counterparties and there would be no adjustment to natural gas and oil revenues related to the derivative positions.  If, however, the actual sales price is different from the price assumed in the original fair value calculation, the difference would be reflected as either a decrease or increase in natural gas and oil revenues, depending upon whether the sales price was higher or lower, respectively, than the prices assumed in the original fair value calculation.  For accounting purposes, the net effect of these acquired hedges is that we hedged the production volumes listed below at their fair values on the date of our acquisition of CNR.

Pursuant to SFAS 149 “Amendment of SFAS 133 on Derivative Instruments and Hedging Activities,” the assumed CNR derivative instruments are deemed to contain a significant financing element and all cash flows associated with these positions are reported as financing activity in the statement of cash flows.

The following details the CNR derivatives (natural gas swaps) we have assumed:

 
Open
Swaps
in Bcf’s
Avg. NYMEX
Strike Price
Of Open
Swaps
(per Mcf)
Avg. Fair
Value Upon
Acquisition of
Open Swaps
(per Mcf)
Initial
Liability
Acquired
(per Mcf)
Assuming
Natural Gas
Production
in Bcf’s of:
Open Swap
Positions as a %
of Estimated Total
Natural Gas
Production
Q4 2008
9.7
$4.66
$7.84
($3.17)
199
5%
             
Total 2009
18.3
$5.18
$7.28
($2.10)
903
2%
             
Note:  Not shown above are collars covering 3.7 bcf of production in 2009 at an average floor and ceiling of $4.50 and $6.00.

The company also has the following crude oil swaps in place:

 
Open Swaps
in mbbls
Avg. NYMEX
Strike Price
Assuming
Oil
Production
in mbbls of:
Open Swap
Positions as a %
of Estimated
Total Oil Production
Total Losses
from Lifted
Swaps
($ millions)
Total Lifted
Losses per
bbl of
Estimated
Total Oil
Production
Q4 2008(1)
1,702
$77.57
2,825
60%
($4.7)
($1.68)
             
Total 2009(1)
8,364
$82.38
12,000
70%
($0.6)
($0.05)
             
Total 2010(1)
4,745
$90.25
13,000
37%

(1)  
Certain hedging arrangements include cap-swaps and knockout swaps with provisions limiting the counterparty’s exposure below prices ranging from $45.00 to $60.00 covering 1,104 mbbls in 2008, from $52.50 to $60.00 covering 7,848 mbbls in 2009 and $60.00 covering 4,745 mbbls in 2010.

Note: Not shown above are written call options covering 890 mbbls of production in 2008 at a weighted average price of $86.43 for a weighted average premium of $3.63, 3,285 mbbls of production in 2009 at a weighed average price of $122.22 for a weighted average premium of $6.07 and 3,285 mbbls of production in 2010 at a weighed average price of $131.67 for a weighted average premium of $6.94.



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