EX-99.1 2 dex991.htm RADIAN ASSET ASSURANCE INC. Radian Asset Assurance Inc.

Exhibit 99.1

LOGO

 

     

Quarterly

Operating Supplement

Fourth Quarter 2008


Table of Contents

 

     Page

Introductory Note

   2

Company Profile

   2

Company Information

   2

Consolidated GAAP Income Statements

   3

Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets

   4

Consolidated Gross Premiums Written by Product

   5

Consolidated Net Premiums Earned by Product

   5

Consolidated Future Revenue

   5

Consolidated Selected Loss Information

   6

Consolidated Selected Derivative Information

   7

Consolidated Investment Portfolio Highlights

   8

Consolidated Insured Portfolio Highlights

   9

Consolidated Explanatory Notes

   20

Safe Harbor Statement

   24

 

Quarterly Operating Supplement for the Period Ended Dec. 31, 2008 / Table of Contents

1


Radian Asset Assurance Inc.

Quarterly Operating Supplement

December 31, 2008

Introductory Note

This operating supplement presents financial information for Radian Asset Assurance Inc. (Radian) and its consolidated subsidiaries on an unaudited GAAP basis. Please visit our website at www.radian.biz for selected statutory information.

Company Profile

Radian, founded in 1985 and rated BBB- (CreditWatch Negative) by Standard & Poor’s, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies (S&P), and Ba1 (Stable) by Moody’s Investor Service (Moody’s), traditionally has served as a niche insurer of public finance transactions and a provider of credit enhancement to leading financial institutions in the structured finance market. Radian has written financial guaranty insurance for municipal bonds, asset-backed securities and structured transactions and has also provided reinsurance to the monoline financial guarantors. Radian provided trade credit reinsurance until 2005, when this line of business was placed in runoff.

In the third quarter of 2008, following downgrades of its insurance financial strength ratings and facing difficult market conditions, Radian decided to discontinue, for the foreseeable future, writing any new financial guaranty business, including accepting new financial guaranty reinsurance, other than as may be necessary to commute, restructure, hedge or otherwise mitigate losses or reduce exposure in its existing portfolio.

Radian is a direct subsidiary of Radian Guaranty Inc. and an indirect subsidiary of Radian Group Inc. (Radian Group) (NYSE: RDN)

For more information regarding Radian and Radian Group, please visit our website at www.radian.biz

Company Information

 

Radian Asset Assurance Inc.   Contact:  
335 Madison Avenue   John C. DeLuca  
New York, New York 10017   Senior Vice President  
1 877 337.4925 (within the U.S.)   1 212 984.9222  
1 212 983.3100   john.deluca@radian.biz  
www.radian.biz    

 

Quarterly Operating Supplement for the Period Ended Dec. 31, 2008 / Introductory Note / Company Profile / Company Information

2


Radian Asset Assurance Inc.

Consolidated GAAP Income Statements* ($ Thousands)

(Unaudited)

 

     Quarter ended     Twelve Months ended  
     December 31
2008
    December 31
2007
    December 31
2008
    December 31
2007
 

Revenues

        

Net premiums written - insurance

   $ (40,903 )   $ 41,256     $ 29,524     $ 185,718  
                                

Net premiums earned - insurance

   $ 27,807     $ 33,633     $ 162,495     $ 131,833  

Net investment income

     25,779       27,559       104,222       104,372  

(Loss) gain on investments

     (2,829 )     (1,539 )     (66,587 )     12,334  

Realized gain on derivatives

     11,635       10,660       39,173       90,237  

Unrealized (losses) gains on derivatives

     (226,122 )     (542,792 )     569,583       (837,038 )
                                

Total change in fair value of derivative instruments

     (214,487 )     (532,132 )     608,756       (746,801 )
                                

Total revenues

     (163,730 )     (472,479 )     808,886       (498,262 )
                                

Expenses

        

Losses and loss adjustment expenses

     67,450       59,058       115,591       107,232  

Policy acquisition costs

     9,122       11,161       47,214       45,163  

Other operating expenses

     26,617       12,022       99,127       48,821  

Other expense

     6,495       5,863       24,216       18,089  
                                

Total expenses

     109,684       88,104       286,148       219,305  
                                

(Loss) income before income taxes

     (273,414 )     (560,583 )     522,738       (717,567 )

Income tax (benefit) expense

     (93,133 )     (198,050 )     182,207       (273,648 )
                                

Net (Loss) Income

   $ (180,281 )   $ (362,533 )   $ 340,531     $ (443,919 )
                                

 

* See Consolidated Explanatory Notes on page 20.

 

Quarterly Operating Supplement for the Period Ended Dec. 31, 2008 / Consolidated GAAP Income Statements

3


Radian Asset Assurance Inc.

Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets* ($ Thousands)**

(Unaudited)

 

     December 31
2008
    December 31
2007

Assets

    

Investments:

    

Fixed maturities, available for sale, at fair value
(amortized cost $1,864,681 and $2,066,052)

   $ 1,770,927     $ 2,092,720

Fixed maturities - trading, at fair value (amortized cost $141,764 and $16,125)

     143,094       16,132

Hybrid securities, at fair value (amortized cost $129,915 and $140,325)

     111,508       155,844

Preferred stock, at fair value (cost $21,349 and —)

     16,893       —  

Common stock, at fair value (cost $1,281 and $931)

     1,521       1,143

Short-term investments

     118,819       253,614
              

Total Investments

     2,162,762       2,519,453

Cash and cash equivalents

     9,912       6,012

Deferred federal income taxes - net

     99,484       233,996

Accrued interest and dividends receivable

     26,665       28,319

Premiums and other receivables

     15,563       21,582

Deferred policy acquisition costs

     139,164       172,560

Prepaid reinsurance premiums

     770       1,138

Prepaid federal income taxes

     —         14,995

Derivative assets

     172,778       43,145

Other assets

     7,692       13,428
              

Total Assets

   $ 2,634,790     $ 3,054,628
              

Liabilities and Shareholder’s Equity

    

Liabilities

    

Losses and loss adjustment expenses

   $ 233,853     $ 249,864

Reinsurance payable on paid losses and loss adjustment expenses

     5,747       1,410

Deferred premium revenue

     580,386       713,726

Federal income taxes payable

     12,742       4,348

Payable to affiliates

     8,937       6,298

Derivative liabilities

     357,421       801,284

Accrued expenses and other liabilities

     23,626       24,721
              

Total Liabilities

     1,222,712       1,801,651
              

Shareholder’s Equity

    

Common stock — $150 par value

    

Authorized, issued and outstanding — 100,000 shares

     15,000       15,000

Additional paid-in capital

     707,284       704,500

Retained earnings

     737,372       504,341

Accumulated other comprehensive (loss) income

     (47,578 )     29,136
              

Total Shareholder’s Equity

     1,412,078       1,252,977
              

Total Liabilities and Shareholder’s Equity

   $ 2,634,790     $ 3,054,628
              

 

* See Consolidated Explanatory Notes on page 20.
** Except share amounts.

 

Quarterly Operating Supplement for the Period Ended Dec. 31, 2008 / Consolidated GAAP Balance Sheets

4


Radian Asset Assurance Inc.

Consolidated Gross Premiums Written by Product* ($ Thousands)

 

     Quarter ended    Percent
Change
    Twelve months ended    Percent
Change
 
     December 31
2008
    December 31
2007
     December 31
2008
    December 31
2007
  

Public Finance Direct

   $ 20     $ 11,461    –99.8 %   $ 15,558     $ 60,117    –74.1 %

Structured Finance Direct

     1,605       4,507    –64.4 %     12,151       16,582    –26.7 %

Public Finance Reinsurance

     1,841       19,739    –90.7 %     34,066       86,821    –60.8 %

Structured Finance Reinsurance

     3,995       5,327    –25.0 %     18,735       21,933    –14.6 %

Trade Credit Reinsurance

     (235 )     216    N/M       (319 )     1,723    N/M  
                                  
     7,226       41,250    –82.5 %     80,191       187,176    –57.2 %

Impact of Recapture

     (48,494 )     —      —         (51,050 )     —      —    
                                  

Total

   $ (41,268 )   $ 41,250    –200.0 %   $ 29,141     $ 187,176    –84.4 %
                                  

Consolidated Net Premiums Earned by Product* ($ Thousands)

 

     Quarter ended    Percent
Change
    Twelve months ended    Percent
Change
 
     December 31
2008
    December 31
2007
     December 31
2008
    December 31
2007
  

Public Finance Direct

   $ 12,997     $ 13,459    –3.4 %   $ 56,191     $ 45,770    22.8 %

Structured Finance Direct

     3,207       3,878    –17.3 %     14,418       17,384    –17.1 %

Public Finance Reinsurance

     23,239       10,770    115.8 %     89,227       44,667    99.8 %

Structured Finance Reinsurance

     4,527       5,461    –17.1 %     19,690       22,957    –14.2 %

Trade Credit Reinsurance

     139       65    113.8 %     113       1,055    –89.3 %
                                  
     44,109       33,633    31.1 %     179,639       131,833    36.3 %

Impact of Recapture

     (16,302 )     —      —         (17,144 )     —      —    
                                  

Total

   $ 27,807     $ 33,633    –17.3 %   $ 162,495     $ 131,833    23.3 %
                                  

Consolidated Future Revenue**

As of December 31, 2008

($ Millions)

 

     Net Deferred
Premium
Amortization
   Future
Installments
   Insurance
Premium
Earnings
   Realized Gains
on Credit
Derivatives
   Total Future
Revenue

2009

   $ 56.9    $ 23.8    $ 80.7    $ 49.5    $ 130.2

2010

     46.3      27.2      73.5      43.7      117.2

2011

     43.2      17.7      60.9      40.7      101.6

2012

     40.5      16.4      56.9      37.5      94.4

2013

     37.9      15.5      53.4      26.5      79.9
                                  

2009 – 2013

     224.8      100.6      325.4      197.9      523.3

2014 – 2018

     154.8      52.7      207.5      48.7      256.2

2019 – 2023

     104.2      34.5      138.7      5.1      143.8

2024 – 2028

     61.8      26.4      88.2      4.3      92.5

After 2028

     34.0      43.6      77.6      5.0      82.6
                                  

Total

   $ 579.6    $ 257.8    $ 837.4    $ 261.0    $ 1,098.4
                                  

 

* See Consolidated Explanatory Notes on page 20.
** This table depicts the expected revenue from insurance premiums, net of prepaid reinsurance premiums, and realized gains on credit derivatives, for the existing financial guaranty contracts, assuming no advance refundings as of December 31, 2008. Expected revenue will differ from contractual revenue because borrowers have the right to call or repay financial guaranty obligations. Realized gains on credit derivatives represent Radian's expected future premium earnings on derivative contracts.

 

Quarterly Operating Supplement for the Period Ended Dec. 31, 2008 / Consolidated: Gross Premiums Written / Net Premiums Earned / Net Unearned Premium

5


Radian Asset Assurance Inc.

Consolidated Selected Loss Information*

($ Thousands)

Components of Claims Paid and Incurred Losses

and Loss Adjustment Expenses

 

     Quarter ended     Twelve months ended  
     December 31
2008
    December 31
2007
    December 31
2008
    December 31
2007
 

Claims Paid

        

Trade credit reinsurance

   $ 2,006     $ 1,528     $ 3,490     $ 7,973  

Financial guaranty

     13,873       12,737       127,340       22,551  
                                

Total

   $ 15,879     $ 14,265     $ 130,830     $ 30,524  
                                

Incurred Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses

        

Trade credit reinsurance

   $ (2,611 )   $ (2,182 )   $ (8,712 )   $ (7,269 )

Financial guaranty

     74,061       61,240       128,303       114,501  
                                
     71,450       59,058       119,591       107,232  

Impact of 2008 financial guaranty recaptures

     (4,000 )     —         (4,000 )     —    
                                

Total

   $ 67,450     $ 59,058     $ 115,591     $ 107,232  
                                

Components of Losses and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves

 

     December 31
2008
   December 31
2007

Financial Guaranty

     

Allocated reserves

   $ 161,285    $ 172,955

Unallocated non-specific

     58,386      49,195
             
     219,671      222,150
             

Trade Credit and Other

     

Case

     9,594      14,800

IBNR

     4,588      12,914
             
     14,182      27,714
             

Total

   $ 233,853    $ 249,864
             
 
  * See Consolidated Explanatory Notes on page 20.

 

Quarterly Operating Supplement for the Period Ended Dec. 31, 2008 / Consolidated Selected Loss Information

6


Radian Asset Assurance Inc.

Consolidated Selected Derivative Information*

($ Millions)

Balance Sheet Information

 

     December 31
2008
    December 31
2007
 

Notional value - insured portfolio

   $ 47,968.3     $ 48,539.4  
                

Assets

    

Gross unrealized gains on derivative financial guaranty contracts

   $ 22.8     $ 7.9  

Gross unrealized gains on put options on committed preferred securities

     150.0       35.2  
                

Total assets

     172.8       43.1  
                

Liabilities

    

Gross unrealized losses on derivative financial guaranty contracts

     (357.4 )     (801.2 )
                

Net liabilities

   $ (184.6 )   $ (758.1 )
                

Income Statement Information

 

     Quarter ended     Twelve months ended  
     December 31
2008
    December 31
2007
    December 31
2008
    December 31
2007
 

Realized gains (losses) on derivatives

        

Premiums earned on credit derivatives

   $ 13.1     $ 13.4     $ 54.0     $ 62.0  

Net payments on credit derivatives

     —         —         (10.1 )     —    

Premium settlements on terminated credit derivatives

     —         0.3       0.8       31.2  

Payment to maintain put options on committed preferred securities

     (1.4 )     (3.0 )     (5.5 )     (3.0 )
                                

Total realized

     11.7       10.7       39.2       90.2  
                                

Unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives

        

Change in fair value of credit derivatives

     (279.1 )     (578.0 )     454.9       (871.9 )

Change in fair value of put options on committed preferred securities

     53.0       35.2       114.7       35.2  

Change in fair value of investments

     —         —         —         (0.3 )
                                

Total unrealized

     (226.1 )     (542.8 )     569.6       (837.0 )
                                

Change in fair value of derivative instruments

   $ (214.4 )   $ (532.1 )   $ 608.8     $ (746.8 )
                                

Roll Forward of Net Derivative Assets and Liabilities

 

     December 31
2008
    December 31
2007
 

Balance at January 1

   $ (758.1 )   $ 59.9  

Realized gains on derivatives

     39.2       90.2  

Unrealized gains (losses) on derivatives

     569.6       (837.0 )

Premiums written on credit derivatives

     (50.1 )     (43.0 )

Payment to maintain put options on committed preferred securities

     5.5       3.0  

Net payments on credit derivatives

     10.1       —    

Premium settlements on terminated credit derivatives

     (0.8 )     (31.2 )
                

Balance at end of period

   $ (184.6 )   $ (758.1 )
                
 
  * See Consolidated Explanatory Notes on page 20.

 

Quarterly Operating Supplement for the Period Ended Dec. 31, 2008 / Consolidated Selected Derivative Information

7


Radian Asset Assurance Inc.

Consolidated Investment Portfolio Highlights*

($ Millions)

 

Asset Quality**

   Book Value
(12/31/2008)
   Percent of
Book Value
    Book Value
(12/31/2007)
   Percent of
Book Value
 

AAA

   $ 1,112.2    51.4 %   $ 1,698.4    67.5 %

AA

     611.4    28.3 %     418.9    16.6 %

A

     285.2    13.2 %     220.8    8.8 %

BBB

     141.5    6.5 %     174.1    6.9 %

BIG

     5.9    0.3 %     —      0.0 %

NR

     5.1    0.2 %     6.1    0.2 %

Other

     1.5    0.1 %     1.2    0.0 %

Total

   $ 2,162.8    100.0 %   $ 2,519.5    100.0 %
                          

 

Asset Class

   Book Value
(12/31/2008)
   Percent of
Book Value
    Book Value
(12/31/2007)
   Percent of
Book Value
 

Municipal Bonds

   $ 1,511.8    69.9 %   $ 1,747.6    69.4 %

Taxable Bonds

     402.3    18.6 %     361.3    14.3 %

Convertible Bonds

     99.4    4.6 %     125.8    5.0 %

Short-Term

     118.8    5.5 %     253.6    10.1 %

Other

     30.5    1.4 %     31.2    1.2 %

Total

   $ 2,162.8    100.0 %   $ 2,519.5    100.0 %
                          

 

* See Consolidated Explanatory Notes on page 20.
** Average duration of 6.5 years and 5.8 years at 12/31/2008 and 12/31/2007, respectively.

 

Quarterly Operating Supplement for the Period Ended Dec. 31, 2008 / Consolidated Investment Portfolio Highlights

8


Radian Asset Assurance Inc.

Consolidated Insured Portfolio Highlights* ($ Millions)

Sector Breakout

 

     Net Par
Outstanding
(12/31/2008)
   Percent
of total
Net Par
    Net Par
Outstanding
(12/31/2007)
   Percent
of total
Net Par
 

Public Finance

          

General Obligations

   $ 17,007    16.9 %   $ 19,780    17.0 %

Healthcare

     8,127    8.1 %     10,849    9.4 %

Transportation

     4,912    4.9 %     6,938    6.0 %

Utilities

     4,780    4.8 %     6,555    5.7 %

Tax Backed

     4,582    4.6 %     5,851    5.0 %

Education

     3,538    3.5 %     4,237    3.7 %

Investor-Owned Utilities

     2,962    2.9 %     3,889    3.4 %

Long Term Care

     1,345    1.3 %     1,548    1.3 %

Housing

     523    0.5 %     621    0.5 %

Other Public Finance

     1,639    1.6 %     1,784    1.5 %

Subtotal Public Finance

   $ 49,415    49.1 %   $ 62,052    53.5 %
                          

Structured Finance

          

Collateralized Debt Obligations

   $ 45,650    45.3 %   $ 46,961    40.4 %

Asset Backed – Mortgage and MBS

     1,232    1.2 %     1,579    1.4 %

Asset Backed – Consumer

     1,217    1.2 %     1,415    1.2 %

Asset Backed – Commercial and Other

     1,104    1.1 %     1,359    1.2 %

Other Structured Finance(1)

     2,108    2.1 %     2,656    2.3 %

Subtotal Structured Finance

     51,311    50.9 %     53,970    46.5 %
                          

Total

   $ 100,726    100.0 %   $ 116,022    100.0 %
                          

 

(1) Represents other types of structured finance obligations, including diversified payment rights, clearinghouse soft capital, corporate obligations, collateralized guaranteed investment contracts or letter of credit and foreign commercial assets and life insurance securitizations, none of which individually constitutes a material amount of Radian’s financial guaranty net par outstanding.
* See Consolidated Explanatory Notes on page 20.

 

Quarterly Operating Supplement for the Period Ended Dec. 31, 2008 / Consolidated Insured Portfolio Highlights

9


Radian Asset Assurance Inc.

Consolidated Insured Portfolio Highlights*

($ Millions)

Rating Distribution

 

Rating**

   Net Par
Outstanding
(12/31/2008)
   Percent
of total
Net Par
    Net Par
Outstanding
(12/31/2007)
   Percent
of total
Net Par
 

Public Finance

          

AAA

   $ 890    0.9 %   $ 799    0.7 %

AA

     12,860    12.8 %     16,991    14.6 %

A

     15,825    15.7 %     22,453    19.4 %

BBB

     18,218    18.1 %     20,869    18.0 %

Below Investment Grade

     1,622    1.6 %     940    0.8 %

Subtotal Public Finance

   $ 49,415    49.1 %   $ 62,052    53.5 %
                          

Structured Finance

          

AAA

   $ 40,514    40.2 %   $ 48,341    41.7 %

AA

     4,480    4.4 %     511    0.4 %

A

     1,914    1.9 %     2,088    1.8 %

BBB

     2,583    2.6 %     2,566    2.2 %

Below Investment Grade

     1,820    1.8 %     464    0.4 %

Subtotal Structured Finance

   $ 51,311    50.9 %   $ 53,970    46.5 %
                          

Total

          

AAA

   $ 41,404    41.1 %   $ 49,140    42.4 %

AA

     17,340    17.2 %     17,502    15.0 %

A

     17,739    17.6 %     24,541    21.2 %

BBB

     20,801    20.7 %     23,435    20.2 %

Below Investment Grade

     3,442    3.4 %     1,404    1.2 %

Total

   $ 100,726    100.0 %   $ 116,022    100.0 %
                          

 

* See Consolidated Explanatory Notes on page 20.
** Indicated ratings estimates assigned to the underlying obligations utilizing Radian's internal rating system. Radian’s rating scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies (S&P and Moody’s). Radian's internal rating estimates are subject to revision at any time and may differ from the credit ratings ultimately assigned by the rating agencies.

 

Quarterly Operating Supplement for the Period Ended Dec. 31, 2008 / Consolidated Insured Portfolio Highlights

10


Radian Asset Assurance Inc.

Consolidated Insured Portfolio Highlights*

($ Millions)

Geographic Diversification

 

     Net Par
Outstanding
(12/31/2008)
   Percent
of total
Net Par
    Net Par
Outstanding
(12/31/2007)
   Percent
of total
Net Par
 

Domestic public finance

          

California

   $ 5,739    5.7 %   $ 7,191    6.2 %

Texas

     4,074    4.0 %     4,454    3.8 %

New York

     3,602    3.6 %     5,862    5.2 %

Pennsylvania

     2,807    2.8 %     3,298    2.8 %

Florida

     2,568    2.5 %     3,466    3.0 %

Illinois

     2,431    2.4 %     3,156    2.7 %

New Jersey

     2,281    2.3 %     2,666    2.3 %

Washington

     1,758    1.7 %     2,056    1.8 %

Massachusetts

     1,712    1.7 %     2,417    2.1 %

Colorado

     1,577    1.6 %     1,831    1.6 %
                          

Top ten states – domestic public finance subtotal

     28,549    28.3 %     36,397    31.5 %

Total of other states – domestic public finance

     15,649    15.5 %     20,124    17.3 %
                          

Total domestic public finance

     44,198    43.8 %     56,521    48.8 %

Domestic structured finance

     34,811    34.6 %     37,054    31.9 %

International public and structured finance

     21,717    21.6 %     22,447    19.3 %
                          

Total

   $ 100,726    100.0 %   $ 116,022    100.0 %
                          

 

* See Consolidated Explanatory Notes on page 20.

 

Quarterly Operating Supplement for the Period Ended Dec. 31, 2008 / Consolidated Insured Portfolio Highlights

11


Radian Asset Assurance Inc.

Consolidated Insured Portfolio Highlights* ($ Millions)

25 Largest Public Finance Exposures

 

Obligor

   Net Par
Outstanding
(12/31/2008)
   Percent
of total
Net Par
    Rating**

California – G.O.

   $ 605    0.6 %   A-

Washington – G.O. (1)

     435    0.4 %   AA

Chicago, IL – G.O.

     433    0.4 %   A+

Los Angeles Unified School District, CA (1)

     421    0.4 %   AA-

New Jersey Transportation Trust Fund Authority

     419    0.4 %   AA-

New York, NY – G.O.

     408    0.4 %   AA-

Metropolitan Transportation Authority, NY (1)

     370    0.4 %   A

Massachusetts School Building Authority

     359    0.4 %   AA

New Jersey Economic Development Authority School Facilities

     344    0.3 %   AA-

Thames Water Utilities Finance PLC, UK (1)

     320    0.3 %   A-

Jefferson County, AL – Sewer Revenue

     274    0.3 %   CCC

New Jersey Turnpike Authority

     244    0.2 %   A

Illinois Toll Highway Authority

     242    0.2 %   AA

Massachusetts – G.O.

     242    0.2 %   AA

Puerto Rico – G.O.

     240    0.2 %   BBB-

Port Authority of New York & New Jersey

     227    0.2 %   AA-

Massachusetts Water Resources Authority

     203    0.2 %   AA

Detroit, MI – G.O.

     200    0.2 %   BBB-

North Bay Plenary Health Canadian Hospital

     190    0.2 %   AAA

Metropolitan Washington DC Airports Authority

     178    0.2 %   AA-

Bay Area Toll Authority, CA

     178    0.2 %   AA-

Reliance Rail Corp., AU (1)

     177    0.2 %   BBB+

Puerto Rico Highway and Transportation Authority

     176    0.2 %   BBB+

California Water Resources Department

     158    0.2 %   A-

District of Columbia

     154    0.2 %   A+
               

Total

   $ 7,197    7.1 %  
               

 

(1) Radian has additional exposure to several of these issuers in the amounts indicated below on a second-to-pay basis, meaning that Radian’s obligation to pay timely principal and interest on insured bonds is secondary to a substantially identical obligation of another insurer. Therefore, Radian will not have to pay claims on all or any portion of this additional exposure unless both the issuer and the other insurer fail to meet their payment obligations with respect to the insured bonds.

 

 

Washington - G.O.: $0.7 million

 

 

Los Angeles Unified School District, CA: $1.4 million

 

 

Metropolitan Transportation Authority, NY: $0.3 million

 

 

Thames Water Utilities Finance PLC, UK: $29.8 million

 

 

Reliance Rail Corp., AU: $127.9 million

Largest Structured Finance Exposures

Radian’s largest Structured Finance exposures consist of the following:

 

 

Seven $600 million transactions representing Static Synthetic Investment Grade Corporate CDOs rated AAA.

 

 

One $599 million transaction representing a Static Synthetic Investment Grade Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities CDO rated AAA.

 

 

One $563 million transaction representing a Static Synthetic Investment Grade Corporate CDO rated AAA.

 

 

One $480 million transaction representing a Static Cashflow Asset-Backed CDO, with predominantly RMBS collateral, rated CCC-. This transaction is on Radian’s intensified surveillance list.

 

 

Twenty six $450 million transactions representing Static Synthetic Investment Grade Corporate CDOs rated AAA.

 

 

Two $450 million transactions representing Static Synthetic Investment Grade Corporate CDOs rated AA+.

 

 

One $450 million transaction representing a Second-to-Pay CDO rated AA+.

 

 

One $450 million transaction representing a Static Synthetic Investment Grade Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities CDO rated AAA.

These 40 transactions combine to total $19.3 billion, or 19.2% of Radian’s Net Par Outstanding as of December 31, 2008.

 

* See Consolidated Explanatory Notes on page 20.
** Indicated ratings estimates assigned to the underlying obligations utilizing Radian’s internal rating system. Radian’s rating scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies (S&P and Moody’s). Radian’s internal rating estimates are subject to revision at any time and may differ from the credit ratings ultimately assigned by the rating agencies.

 

Quarterly Operating Supplement for the Period Ended Dec. 31, 2008 / Consolidated Insured Portfolio Highlights

12


Radian Asset Assurance Inc.

Consolidated Insured Portfolio Highlights*

($ Millions)

Below Investment Grade Exposure by Sector**

 

Sector

   Net Par
Outstanding
(12/31/2008)
   Percent
of total
Net Par
    Net Par
Outstanding
(12/31/2007)
   Percent
of total
Net Par
 

Public Finance

          

General Obligations

   $ 531    0.6 %   $ 324    0.3 %

Healthcare

     358    0.4 %     290    0.2 %

Utilities

     345    0.3 %     71    0.1 %

Education

     150    0.1 %     151    0.1 %

Transportation

     99    0.1 %     24    0.0 %

Long Term Care

     85    0.1 %     49    0.1 %

Tax Backed

     48    0.0 %     26    0.0 %

Investor-Owned Utilities

     3    0.0 %     5    0.0 %

Housing

     —      0.0 %     —      0.0 %

Other Public Finance

     3    0.0 %     —      0.0 %
                          

Subtotal Public Finance

     1,622    1.6 %     940    0.8 %
                          

Structured Finance

          

Collateralized Debt Obligations

     594    0.6 %     134    0.1 %

Asset Backed – Consumer

     583    0.6 %     128    0.1 %

Asset Backed – Mortgage and MBS

     480    0.5 %     168    0.2 %

Asset Backed – Commercial and Other

     59    0.0 %     34    0.0 %

Other Structured Finance

     104    0.1 %     —      0.0 %
                          

Subtotal Structured Finance

     1,820    1.8 %     464    0.4 %
                          

Total

   $ 3,442    3.4 %   $ 1,404    1.2 %
                          

10 Largest Health Care Exposures

 

Obligor

   Net Par
Outstanding
(12/31/2008)
   Percent
of total
Net Par
    Rating**

North Bay Plenary Health Canadian Hospital

   $ 190    0.2 %   AAA

Consort Healthcare Limited

     116    0.1 %   BBB-

OSF Healthcare System Inc.

     104    0.1 %   A

Group Health Cooperative

     98    0.1 %   A

Capital Hospitals

     92    0.1 %   BBB-

Memorial Hermann Hospital System

     86    0.1 %   A

Good Shepherd Medical Center

     85    0.1 %   BBB

Virginia Mason Medical Center

     85    0.1 %   BBB

Norman Regional Hospital Authority

     83    0.1 %   BBB

Covenant Health System Inc.

     81    0.1 %   A
               

Total

   $ 1,020    1.1 %  
               

 

* See Consolidated Explanatory Notes on page 20.
** Indicated ratings estimates assigned to the underlying obligations utilizing Radian’s internal rating system. Radian’s rating scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies (S&P and Moody’s). Radian’s internal rating estimates are subject to revision at any time and may differ from the credit ratings ultimately assigned by the rating agencies.

 

Quarterly Operating Supplement for the Period Ended Dec. 31, 2008 / Consolidated Insured Portfolio Highlights

13


Radian Asset Assurance Inc.

Consolidated Insured Portfolio Highlights*

($ Millions)

CDO Exposure

 

     Net Par
Outstanding
(12/31/2008)
   Percent of
Total CDO
Net Par
    Net Par
Outstanding
(12/31/2007)
   Percent of
Total CDO
Net Par
 

Direct

   $ 43,925    96.2 %   $ 45,121    96.1 %

Assumed

     1,725    3.8 %     1,840    3.9 %
                          

Total

   $ 45,650    100.0 %   $ 46,961    100.0 %
                          

Total CDO Portfolio Rating Distribution**

 

     Net Par
Outstanding
(12/31/2008)
   Percent of
Total CDO
Net Par
    Net Par
Outstanding
(12/31/2007)
   Percent of
Total CDO
Net Par
 

AAA

   $ 38,823    85.0 %   $ 45,980    97.9 %

AA

     4,406    9.7 %     146    0.3 %

A

     727    1.6 %     674    1.4 %

BBB

     1,100    2.4 %     27    0.1 %

Below Investment Grade

     594    1.3 %     134    0.3 %
                          

Total

   $ 45,650    100.0 %   $ 46,961    100.0 %
                          

 

* See Consolidated Explanatory Notes on page 20.
** Indicated ratings estimates assigned to the underlying obligations utilizing Radian’s internal rating system. Radian’s rating scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies (S&P and Moody’s). Radian’s internal rating estimates are subject to revision at any time and may differ from the credit ratings ultimately assigned by the rating agencies.

 

Quarterly Operating Supplement for the Period Ended Dec. 31, 2008 / Consolidated Insured Portfolio Highlights

14


Radian Asset Assurance Inc.

Consolidated Insured Portfolio Highlights*

($ Millions)

Direct CDO Underlying Asset Types

 

     Direct CDO
Net Par
Outstanding
(12/31/2008)
   Percent of
Direct
CDO
Net Par
    Direct CDO
Net Par
Outstanding
(12/31/2007)
   Percent of
Direct
CDO
Net Par
 

Corporates (1)

   $ 38,040    86.6 %   $ 39,020    86.4 %

TruPs

     2,193    5.0 %     2,227    4.9 %

CDO of CMBS (2)

     1,831    4.2 %     1,831    4.1 %

CDO of ABS (3)

     630    1.4 %     752    1.7 %

Other (4)

     1,231    2.8 %     1,291    2.9 %
                          

Total

   $ 43,925    100.0 %   $ 45,121    100.0 %
                          

 

(1) Includes one $243 million net par outstanding CDO squared transaction (a transaction of a master CDO with four sub-pools of corporate CDOs) scheduled to terminate in June 2009, in which we have exposure through the four sub-pools to 296 corporate names and also includes one second-to-pay corporate CDO transaction with a net par outstanding of $137 million.
(2) For more information regarding this exposure, see the final four items which are 100% CMBS in Table on Direct CDO of ABS, CMBS and Multi-Sector Portfolio on page 17 of this Operating Supplement.
(3) Includes transactions that are predominantly CDOs of RMBS.
(4) Includes CLOs, second-to-pay trust preferred CDOs and one direct multisector CDO.

Direct Corporate CDO Portfolio

 

Year of

Scheduled

Maturity (1)

   Number of
CDO
Contracts/
Policies (2)
   Aggregate Net
Par Outstanding
(12/31/2008) (2)
   Initial Average #
of Sustainable
Credit Events (3)(7)
   Current Average
# of Sustainable
Credit Events (4)(7)
   Minimum # of
Sustainable
Credit Events (5)(7)
   Average. # of
Remaining
Entities in
Transaction (2)(6)

2009

   7    $ 1,043    12.1    11.0    4.4    122.6

2010

   7      1,264    14.8    12.3    5.9    124.0

2011

   3      1,500    39.1    36.8    28.7    99.7

2012

   16      5,875    25.5    23.5    10.9    104.6

2013

   36      15,190    31.9    29.8    13.9    100.4

2014

   16      6,524    29.6    27.6    11.3    99.0

2017

   17      6,260    26.0    24.0    13.0    100.4
                       

Total

   102    $ 37,656            
                       

 

(1) No direct insured Corporate CDO transactions are scheduled to mature in 2015 or 2016. All direct insured corporate CDO transactions are scheduled to mature on or before December 2017.
(2) Excludes (a) one CDO squared transaction (a transaction of a master CDO with four sub-pools of corporate CDOs), scheduled to terminate in June 2009, with a net par outstanding of $243 million and (b) a second-to-pay corporate CDO transaction, with a net par outstanding of $137 million.
(3) The average number of sustainable credit events at the inception of each transaction. Average amounts presented are simple averages.
(4) The average number of sustainable credit events determined as of December 31, 2008. Average amounts presented are simple averages.
(5) The number of sustainable credit events for the one transaction with the fewest remaining sustainable credit events scheduled to mature. For example, for the seven directly insured corporate CDO transactions scheduled to mature in 2009, the subordination level for one of those transactions would be eroded after 4.4 credit events in that transactions. The other transactions could sustain more credit events.
(6) The current average number of different corporate entities in each of the transactions.
(7) The number of sustainable credit events is the number of credit events on different corporate entities that would have to occur before Radian is obligated to pay a claim (i.e. the remaining subordination in Radian’s transaction measured in credit events). In order to determine the number of different corporate entities that would be required to experience a credit event before Radian pays a claim, Radian calculates the weighted average net par exposure per corporate entity, then reduce such amount by an assumed recovery value (which is 30%, except with respect to transactions where Radian has agreed to a set fixed recovery, in which case Radian assumes such fixed recovery), which then determines the reduction of subordination that would occur for each applicable credit event. Radian then divides the aggregate subordination for the applicable transaction by the related reduction of subordination per credit to determine the applicable number of corporate entities that need to experience credit events before subordination in the transactions below Radian’s position would be reduced to zero.
* See Consolidated Explanatory Notes on page 20.

 

Quarterly Operating Supplement for the Period Ended Dec. 31, 2008 / Consolidated Insured Portfolio Highlights

15


Radian Asset Assurance Inc.

Consolidated Insured Portfolio Highlights*

($ Millions)

Direct TruPs CDO Subordination

 

Direct
TruPs

   Earliest
Maturity
Date (1)
   Net Par
Outstanding
(12/31/2008)
   Current
Subordination
after Defaults (2)
    Current
Subordination
after Defaults
and Deferrals (3)
 

1

   07/15/2011    $ 213    43.0 %   40.2 %

2

   09/21/2011      99    39.8 %   38.2 %

3

   10/12/2011      288    41.6 %   38.8 %

4

   11/30/2011      215    46.3 %   39.5 %

5

   03/15/2012      318    47.0 %   44.8 %

6

   08/04/2017      77    44.2 %   40.7 %

7

   12/15/2017      189    44.6 %   40.8 %

8

   09/26/2034      49    46.3 %   42.5 %

9

   09/23/2035      89    45.5 %   42.6 %

10

   12/23/2036      144    46.8 %   43.2 %

11

   03/22/2037      139    44.6 %   42.6 %

12

   12/23/2037      209    43.9 %   39.9 %

13

   10/10/2040      164    47.1 %   45.2 %
              

Total

      $ 2,193     
              

 

(1) The earlier of the current scheduled termination date of the TruPs CDO ISDA contract and the legal final maturity date of the underlying TruPs bond. In nine (9) of Radian’s TruPs CDO ISDA contracts, which provide credit protection on seven (7) distinct pools of TruPs collateral (representing an aggregate of $978.6 million net par outstanding as of December 31, 2008), Radian’s counterparties may require that Radian purchase the outstanding underlying TruPs bond at par if an event of default (e.g. failure to pay interest or insufficient collateral to pay senior notes including Radian’s insured notes) exists as of the scheduled termination date of such contract (which may be prior to the legal final maturity date of the underlying TruPs bond). Based on Radian’s current projections for these transactions and the significant subordination levels remaining on these transactions, Radian does not currently anticipate that an event of default will occur with respect to these bonds on or prior to their current scheduled termination date, or otherwise in the foreseeable future. The scheduled termination dates of these contracts currently range between 2011 and 2017, but will automatically extend unless terminated by the counterparty.
(2) Reflects the amount of remaining subordination expressed as a percentage of the collateral pool as of December 31, 2008, after giving effect to paydowns or redemptions (“amortization”) of the collateral and actual defaults assuming a loss of the full par amount of the underlying TruPs in the collateral pool.
(3) Reflects the amount of remaining subordination expressed as a percentage of the collateral pool as of December 31, 2008, after including the effect not only of amortization and actual defaults on the underlying bonds in the collateral pool that have occurred but also the effect of deferrals of payment on the underlying bonds in the collateral pool, assuming that any such deferral will ultimately result in a loss of the full par amount of the TruPs.
* See Consolidated Explanatory Notes on page 20.

 

Quarterly Operating Supplement for the Period Ended Dec. 31, 2008 / Consolidated Insured Portfolio Highlights

16


Radian Asset Assurance Inc.

Consolidated Insured Portfolio Highlights*

($ Millions)

Direct CDO of ABS, CMBS and Multi-Sector Portfolio

Type of Collateral as a Percentage of Total Pool

 

Year

Insured

  Legal
Final
Maturity
  Net Par
Outstanding
($
Millions)
  ABS   RMBS   Subprime
RMBS
  CMBS   CDO of
Investment
Grade
Corporate
  CDO of
High
Yield
Corporate
  CDO of
ABS
  CDO of
CDO
  Other   Total
Collateral
Pool
  S&P
Rating
  Moody’s
Rating
  Original
AAA
Subordination
  Radian
Asset
Attachment
Point
    Radian
Asset
Detachment
Point
  % RMBS
A3 or
Better**
  % Subprime
A3 or
Better**

2004

  2009   $ 251.7   17.0%   32.9%   0.0%   0.0%   45.1%   5.0%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%   100.0%   AAA   Aaa   2.2%   33.4%     63.4%   100.0%   NA

2005

  2010     150.0   25.2%   49.0%   15.8%   0.0%   8.2%   1.8%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%   100.0%   AAA   N/R   4.5%   13.0%     38.0%   100.0%   100.0%

2006

  2046     479.7   0.0%   21.9%   41.6%   14.4%   0.0%   0.0%   13.5%   3.5%   5.1%   100.0%   B+***   Ba2***   4.9%   * ***   100.0%   41.1%   35.0%

2006

  2047     450.0   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%   100.0%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%   100.0%   AAA   N/R   2.4%   6.8%     30.0%   NA   NA

2006

  2049     598.5   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%   100.0%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%   100.0%   AAA   N/R   0.6%   5.1%     30.0%   NA   NA

2006

  2056     352.5   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%   100.0%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%   100.0%   AAA   N/R   5.5%   6.5%     30.0%   NA   NA

2007

  2047     430.0   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%   100.0%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%   0.0%   100.0%   AAA   N/R   2.4%   7.0%     50.0%   NA   NA
                                         

Total

    $ 2,712.4                                  
                                         

 

* See Consolidated Explanatory Notes on page 20.
** Ratings are based on Moody’s ratings. If Moody’s rating is unavailable, then S&P rating applies.
*** S&P downgraded this CDO to AA- in March 2008 and then to B+ in July 2008; Moody’s downgraded it to Aa3 in April 2008, A2 in July 2008, and then to Ba2 in December 2008. This credit was added to Radian’s Watch List with an internal rating of BB- in April 2008 and subsequently downgraded to CCC- in August 2008. See Consolidated Explanatory Note #11 for additional information regarding this credit.
**** Although the current attachment point equals $110.5 million (18.7%), Radian does not currently expect that remaining subordination will be sufficient to absorb losses from the remaining collateral.

 

Quarterly Operating Supplement for the Period Ended Dec. 31, 2008 / Consolidated Insured Portfolio Highlights

17


Radian Asset Assurance Inc.

Consolidated Insured Portfolio Highlights*

($ Millions)

Non-CDO Domestic RMBS Portfolio: Breakdown by Asset Type

 

        % of                   % 2006 /      
    Net Par   RMBS   Direct   Assumed   Assumed   Assumed   2007   Ratings***  
    Outstanding   Portfolio   Total**   Non-HELOCs   HELOCs   Total   Vintage   AAA     AA     A     BBB     BIG****  

SubPrime

  $352.2 MM

128 Policies

  33.9%   $122.2 MM

7 Policies

34.7%

  $189.9 MM

117 Policies

53.9%

  $40.1 MM

4 Policies

11.4%

  $230.0MM

121 Policies

65.3%

  10.5% /

33.1%

  16.9 %   0.3 %   3.1 %   0.1 %   79.6 %

Prime

  $267.6 MM

68 Policies

  25.8%   $122.5 MM

7 Policies

45.8%

  $65.5 MM

45 Policies

24.5%

  $79.6 MM

16 Policies

29.7%

  $145.1 MM

61 Policies

54.2%

  6.2% /

33.2%

  59.3 %   9.1 %   7.6 %   12.9 %   11.1 %

Alt A

  $369.6 MM

60 Policies

  35.6%   $72.6 MM

3 Policies

19.6%

  $236.8 MM

51 Policies

64.1%

  $60.2 MM

6 Policies

16.3%

  $297.0 MM

57 Policies

80.4%

  26.2% /

33.2%

  46.6 %   6.1 %   3.6 %   8.3 %   35.4 %

Second to Pay

  $48.5 MM

16 Policies

  4.7%   $0 MM

0 Policies

0.0%

  $48.5 MM

16 Policies

100.0%

  $0 MM

0 Policies

0.0%

  $48.5 MM

16 Policies

100.0%

  4.3% /

95.7%

  21.0 %   5.2 %   0.0 %   6.1 %   67.7 %

Total RMBS

  $1,037.9 MM

272 Policies

  100.0%   $317.3 MM

17 Policies

30.6%

  $540.7 MM

229 Policies

52.1%

  $179.9 MM

26 Policies

17.3%

  $720.6 MM

255 Policies

69.4%

  14.8% /

35.7%

  38.6 %   4.9 %   4.3 %   6.6 %   45.6 %

 

* See Consolidated Explanatory Notes on page 20.
** Radian has no direct HELOC exposure. No direct RMBS have been written since 2005 and no direct SubPrime RMBS have been written since 2004
*** Indicated ratings estimates assigned to the underlying obligations utilizing Radian’s internal rating system. Radian’s rating scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies (S&P and Moody’s). Radian’s internal rating estimates are subject to revision at any time and may differ from the credit ratings ultimately assigned by the rating agencies.
**** All of the BIG exposure is on Radian’s Watch List and reserves have been established for these as needed

 

Quarterly Operating Supplement for the Period Ended Dec. 31, 2008 / Consolidated Insured Portfolio Highlights

18


Radian Asset Assurance Inc.

Consolidated Insured Portfolio Highlights*

($ Millions)

Net Debt Service Amortization

 

     Scheduled
Net Debt Service
Amortization as
of 12/31/2008
   Ending
Net Debt Service
Outstanding

2009

   $ 6,338    $ 132,093

2010

     6,169      125,924

2011

     6,162      119,762

2012

     10,275      109,487

2013

     19,390      90,097

2014-2018

     34,150      55,947

2019-2023

     18,046      37,901

2024-2028

     14,000      23,901

After 2028

     23,901      —  
         

Total

   $ 138,431   
         

 

* See Consolidated Explanatory Notes on page 20.

 

Quarterly Operating Supplement for the Period Ended Dec. 31, 2008 / Consolidated Insured Portfolio Highlights

19


Radian Asset Assurance Inc.

Consolidated Explanatory Notes

1. The accompanying unaudited GAAP financial information includes the accounts of Radian, Radian Asset Assurance Limited, Radian Financial Products Limited, Van-American Insurance Agency, Inc. and Asset Recovery Solutions Group Inc.

These unaudited consolidated financial statements do not include all of the information and disclosures required by generally accepted accounting principles. These financial statements should be read in conjunction with the Radian Group audited consolidated financial statements and notes thereto, including the Report of Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm contained within the Radian Group Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2008 of Radian Group.

2. Prior year amounts have been restated to conform to current year presentation.

3. In light of current market conditions, Radian has discontinued, for the foreseeable future, writing any new financial guaranty insurance other than as may be necessary to commute, restructure, hedge or otherwise mitigate losses or reduce exposure in our existing portfolio. As a result, for the quarter ended December 31, 2008, net premiums written decreased $82.2 million to $(40.9) million as compared to $41.3 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2007. The 2008 premiums written reflect a decrease of $48.5 million resulting from the recapture of public finance reinsurance business by the primary insurance companies due to downgrades of our financial strength ratings by the rating agencies. In addition, public finance direct and public finance reinsurance net premiums written decreased $11.4 million and $17.9 million, respectively, due to our reduction in new business production. For the year-to-date periods, net premiums written during 2008 decreased $156.2 million to $29.5 million from $185.7 million of net premium written during the 2007 period. The decrease was primarily due to a reduction resulting from the recapture of public finance reinsurance business of $49.9 million. In addition, year-over-year public finance direct net premiums written decreased $44.6 million and public finance reinsurance net premiums written decreased $52.8 million due to our reduction in new business production.

4. As a result of Radian’s downgrade by S&P in June 2008, four ceding companies took back or recaptured all of their business ceded to Radian and Radian agreed to allow another reinsurance customer to take back a portion of its business (the “2008 FG Recaptures”).

In addition, an additional $75.6 billion of Radian’s net par outstanding remains subject to recapture or termination due to these downgrades at the option of the ceding companies, Radian’s credit derivative counterparties or other insured parties, as the case may be.

All but one of Radian’s reinsurance customers has the right to take back or recapture business previously ceded to Radian under their reinsurance agreements with Radian, and in some cases, in lieu of recapture, the right to increase ceding commissions charged to Radian. As of December 31, 2008, up to $36.7 billion of Radian’s total net assumed par outstanding was subject to recapture. If all of this business was recaptured as of December 31, 2008, Radian estimates that Radian would have experienced a reduction in (1) written premiums of approximately $312.8 million, (2) earned premiums of approximately $52.2 million, and (3) the net present value of expected future installment premiums of $142.3 million. In addition, Radian would experience a reduction in incurred losses of up to $94.9 million if this business were recaptured. Radian would be required to return written premiums (less ceding commissions) and possibly a portion of Radian’s reserves if this business were recaptured.

 

Quarterly Operating Supplement for the Period Ended Dec. 31, 2008 / Consolidated Explanatory Notes

20


Radian Asset Assurance Inc.

Consolidated Explanatory Notes

 

The counterparty in two of Radian’s synthetic CDO transactions, with an aggregate net par outstanding of $293.3 million ($243.0 million of which is scheduled to terminate in June 2009), has the right to terminate these transactions with settlement on a mark-to-market basis, subject to a maximum payout as of December 31, 2008 of approximately $34.1 million in the aggregate. In addition, Radian also has $103.2 million in exposure to another synthetic CDO transaction which is scheduled to terminate in June 2009. This transaction may be terminated on a mark-to-market basis if S&P lowers Radian’s financial strength rating below investment grade (BBB-).

As of December 31, 2008, the counterparties to 147 of Radian’s transactions currently have the right to terminate these transactions without Radian having an obligation to settle the transaction on a mark-to-market basis. If all of these counterparties had terminated these transactions as of December 31, 2008, Radian’s net par outstanding would have been reduced by $38.6 billion, with a corresponding decrease in unearned premium reserves of $12.0 million (of which only $0.4 million would be required to be refunded to counterparties) and the present value of expected future installment premiums of $168.0 million. Additionally, net unrealized losses in the amount of $160.5 million would be reversed.

5. Net premiums earned for the quarter ended December 31, 2008, decreased $5.8 million to $27.8 million from $33.6 million during the 2007 quarter. The decrease was primarily the result of public finance recaptures of $16.3 million which was partially offset by refundings which were $12.0 million higher for the 2008 quarter than the 2007 quarter. Net premiums earned for the year-to-date period ended December 31, 2008 were $162.5 million compared to $131.8 million earned during the comparable period in 2007, an increase of $30.7 million primarily the result of an increase in public finance refundings of $51.8 million partially offset by recaptures of $17.1 million.

6. For the year-to-date period of 2008, the loss on investments was $66.6 million versus a gain of $12.3 million for the comparable period of 2007, a change of $(78.9) million. The 2008 results included impairments of $34.9 million and a loss of $33.9 million on the mark to market on hybrid securities. The 2007 year-to-date results included impairments of $0.1 million and an insignificant gain on the mark to market on hybrid securities.

7. Loss and loss adjustment expenses for the quarters ended December 31, 2008 and 2007, were $67.5 million and $59.1 million, respectively. The 2008 quarter included $66.4 million of incurred losses in the structured finance reinsurance line of business. The 2007 quarter loss and loss adjustment expenses is primarily related to one financial guaranty transaction of $50 million. Loss and loss adjustment expenses for the year-to-date periods ended December 31, 2008 and 2007, were $115.6 million and $107.2 million respectively. The 2008 year-to-date period included $105.4 million of incurred losses in the structured finance reinsurance line of business. The 2007 year-to-date period included an incurred loss of $100 million for the one financial guaranty transaction discussed above.

 

Quarterly Operating Supplement for the Period Ended Dec. 31, 2008 / Consolidated Explanatory Notes

21


Radian Asset Assurance Inc.

Consolidated Explanatory Notes

 

8. Other operating expenses were $26.6 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2008 versus $12.0 million for the 2007 period, an increase of $14.6 million. The increase in other operating expenses for the fourth quarter of 2008 was primarily comprised of $6.5 million of severance as a result of Radian’s decision to cease writing new business in light of current market conditions, and an increase of $3.9 million of allocated expenses from Radian Group primarily due to increases of audit fees, legal fees, insurance, and employee costs. For the year-to-date period of 2008, other operating expenses were $99.1 million compared to $48.8 million for the year-to-date period of 2007, an increase of $50.3 million. The increase in other operating expenses for the year-to-date period of 2008 was primarily comprised of $22.7 million of severance and a year-over-year increase of $19.3 million of allocated expenses from Radian Group primarily due to increases of audit fees, legal fees, insurance, and employee costs.

9. During 2008, Radian paid an ordinary dividend in the amount of $107.5 million.

10. Radian Group has several outstanding comments from the Staff of the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance, including Staff comments regarding Radian Group’s valuation methodologies, including assumptions used to estimate the fair values of Radian’s credit default swap (“CDS”) contracts, corporate CDOs, and put options on Radian’s money market committed preferred custodial trust securities. Radian Group believes that the valuation methodologies with respect to these complicated financial instruments are appropriate, and is working with the Staff to revise and expand its disclosures. Radian has responded to the Staff’s outstanding comments by providing additional disclosure in Radian Group’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2008. It is possible that the SEC could ultimately disagree with the methodology used to determine the fair value of Radian’s derivative financial instruments, or require additional or different disclosure, which may require Radian Group to amend various SEC Reports and may affect the financial information contained herein.

11. Radian provides $479.7 million net par outstanding of credit protection on the senior-most tranche of a CDO of ABS transaction, where the underlying collateral consists of mezzanine tranches of predominately mortgage-backed securities. As of December 31, 2008, 54 RMBS credits and 20 CDO of ABS credits (collectively representing $342.3 million (or 58.3%) of the $586.9 million collateral pool) had been downgraded by S&P or Moody’s and 30 of these credits, with a notional value of $136.2 million, have defaulted. The transaction, which is accounted for as a derivative, is currently rated CCC- internally, B+ by S&P and Ba2 by Moody’s. Due to substantial deterioration of the underlying collateral, which has accelerated over the past few quarters, and based on available projections, Radian currently expects that losses from the remaining collateral will exceed the remaining subordination. Based on currently anticipated cash flows, Radian expects to begin paying unreimbursed claims related to interest shortfall on this transaction in 2017 or later, although Radian may be obligated to pay interest shortfall claims (for which Radian expects to be fully reimbursed) much sooner. Due to the structure of this transaction, Radian does not expect to be obligated to pay claims related to the principal shortfalls until sometime between 2036 and the legal final maturity date for the transaction in 2046. Radian currently believes the ultimate principal payment with respect to this transaction that we will be required to pay will be less than the current outstanding par amount, but due to the long remaining life and the nature of the collateral in this transaction, losses are difficult to estimate. Deterioration in economic conditions over the remaining life of the transaction beyond Radian’s current projections could have a material impact on the timing and amount of cash available to make interest and principal payments on Radian’s insured tranche, and therefore, Radian’s ultimate losses on this transaction could be greater than expected.

 

Quarterly Operating Supplement for the Period Ended Dec. 31, 2008 / Consolidated Explanatory Notes

22


Radian Asset Assurance Inc.

Consolidated Explanatory Notes

 

12. Effective with Radian’s fiscal year beginning January 1, 2009, Radian will be implementing SFAS No. 163, which clarifies how SFAS No. 60 applies to financial guarantee insurance contracts, including the recognition and measurement to be used to account for premium revenue and claim liabilities. See Radian Group’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2008, including Item 7 - Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations-Critical Accounting Policies, and Footnote 12 to the Financial Statements contained in such form 10-K for additional information regarding the implementation of SFAS No. 163 and the potential impact thereof.

 

Quarterly Operating Supplement for the Period Ended Dec. 31, 2008 / Consolidated Explanatory Notes

23


Safe Harbor Statement

All statements made herein that address events or developments that we expect or anticipate may occur in the future are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are made on the basis of management’s current views and assumptions with respect to future events. These forward-looking statements, as well as our prospects as a whole, are subject to risks and uncertainties, including the following: changes in general financial and political conditions such as extended national or regional economic recessions (or expansions) or the continuation of economic downturns (or upturns) for longer than anticipated, changes in income, population trends and changes in household formation patterns, changes in unemployment rates, changes or volatility in interest rates, consumer confidence, or credit spreads; future credit market disruptions - in particular, further deterioration in the municipal finance, corporate credit, structured finance, mortgage and related credit markets; changes in investor perception of the strength of us individually, or financial guaranty providers generally, or in the perception of the strength of our ultimate parent Radian Group Inc. and the other businesses in which it or its other subsidiaries participate, including the mortgage insurance industry; risks faced by the businesses, municipalities or pools of assets covered by our insurance; increased severity or frequency of losses associated with certain of our products that are riskier than traditional financial guaranty insurance policies; losses associated with the aging of our municipal and structured finance insurance portfolios; ratings actions with respect to Radian Group’s credit ratings or the financial strength ratings assigned by the major ratings agencies to us or any of our insurance subsidiaries, and rights of customers to terminate policies as a result of such ratings actions; the application of federal or state consumer, lending, insurance and other applicable laws and regulations, or changes in these laws and regulations or the way they are interpreted; potential for regulatory action or litigation; the possibility that we may fail to estimate accurately the likelihood, magnitude and timing of losses in connection with establishing loss reserves for our financial guaranty businesses or to estimate accurately the fair value amounts of derivative financial guaranty contracts in determining gains and losses on these contracts; changes in accounting guidance from the SEC or the Financial Accounting Standards Board regarding income recognition and the treatment of loss reserves in the financial guaranty insurance industry; legal and other limitations on the amount of dividends that we may pay; risks associated with our international business activities. For more information regarding these risks and uncertainties, as well as certain additional risks that we face, investors should refer to the risk factors detailed in Part I, Item 1A of Radian Group’s annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2008. We caution you not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which are current only as of the date on which this information was publicly released. We do not intend to, and disclaim any duty or obligation to, update or revise any forward-looking statements made in this document to reflect new information, future events or for any other reason.

 

Quarterly Operating Supplement for the Period Ended Dec. 31, 2008 / Safe Harbor Statement

24