Note 4 - Fair Value of Financial Instruments (Tables)

9 Months Ended

Sep. 30, 2014

Fair Value Disclosures [Abstract]

Schedule of Fair Value, Assets and Liabilities Measured on Recurring Basis [Table Text Block]

The following is a list of those assets and liabilities that are measured at fair value by hierarchy level as of September 30, 2014:

(In millions)	Level I		Level II		Level III		Total
Assets and Liabilities at Fair Value
Investment Portfolio:
U.S. government and agency securities	$	1,009.0	$	320.2	$	—	$	1,329.2
State and municipal obligations	—		614.3		18.8		633.1
Money market instruments	740.1		—		—		740.1
Corporate bonds and notes	—		1,007.3		—		1,007.3
RMBS	—		299.3		—		299.3
CMBS	—		303.8		—		303.8
Other ABS	—		261.5		—		261.5
Foreign government and agency securities	—		43.4		—		43.4
Equity securities (1)	137.0		96.0		—		233.0
Other investments (2)	—		2.1		82.9		85.0
Total Investments at Fair Value (3)	1,886.1		2,947.9		101.7		4,935.7
Derivative assets	—		18.1		6.1		24.2
Other assets (4)	—		—		88.1		88.1
Total Assets at Fair Value	$	1,886.1	$	2,966.0	$	195.9	$	5,048.0
Derivative liabilities	$	—	$	—	$	185.3	$	185.3
VIE debt (5)	—		—		91.2		91.2
Total Liabilities at Fair Value	$	—	$	—	$	276.5	$	276.5

______________________

(1) Comprising broadly diversified domestic equity mutual funds included within Level I and various preferred and common stocks invested across numerous companies and industries included within Level II.

(2) Comprising TruPs ($0.5 million) and short-term certificates of deposit ($1.6 million) included within Level II and lottery annuities ($0.2 million), TruPs ($0.2 million), and a guaranteed investment contract held by a consolidated VIE ($82.5 million) within Level III.

(3) Does not include fixed-maturities held to maturity ($0.1 million) and certain other invested assets ($39.6 million), primarily invested in limited partnerships, accounted for as cost-method investments and not measured at fair value.

(4) Primarily comprising manufactured housing loan collateral related to two consolidated financial guaranty VIEs.

(5) Comprising consolidated debt related to NIMS VIEs ($3.2 million) and financial guaranty VIEs ($88.0 million).

At September 30, 2014, our total Level III assets were approximately 3.9% of total assets measured at fair value and total Level III liabilities accounted for 100% of total liabilities measured at fair value. Realized and unrealized gains and losses on Level III assets and liabilities in the rollforward represent gains and losses for the periods in which they were classified as Level III.

The following is a list of those assets and liabilities that are measured at fair value by hierarchy level as of December 31, 2013:

(In millions)	Level I		Level II		Level III		Total
Assets and Liabilities at Fair Value
Investment Portfolio:
U.S. government and agency securities	$	755.0	$	402.9	$	—	$	1,157.9
State and municipal obligations	—		602.3		18.7		621.0
Money market instruments	672.6		—		—		672.6
Corporate bonds and notes	—		1,036.6		—		1,036.6
RMBS	—		560.4		—		560.4
CMBS	—		288.9		—		288.9
Other ABS	—		194.9		0.9		195.8
Foreign government and agency securities	—		40.7		—		40.7
Equity securities (1)	128.3		97.1		0.4		225.8
Other investments (2)	—		2.2		81.5		83.7
Total Investments at Fair Value (3)	1,555.9		3,226.0		101.5		4,883.4
Derivative assets	—		10.3		6.3		16.6
Other assets (4)	—		—		91.9		91.9
Total Assets at Fair Value	$	1,555.9	$	3,236.3	$	199.7	$	4,991.9
Derivative liabilities	$	—	$	—	$	307.2	$	307.2
VIE debt (5)	—		—		94.6		94.6
Total Liabilities at Fair Value	$	—	$	—	$	401.8	$	401.8

______________________

(1) Comprising broadly diversified domestic equity mutual funds included within Level I and various preferred and common stocks invested across numerous companies and industries included within Levels II and III.

(2) Comprising TruPs ($0.6 million) and short-term certificates of deposit ($1.6 million) included within Level II and lottery annuities ($0.3 million), TruPs ($0.2 million), and a guaranteed investment contract held by a consolidated VIE ($81.0 million) within Level III.

(3) Does not include fixed-maturities held to maturity ($0.4 million) and certain other invested assets ($47.4 million), primarily invested in limited partnerships, accounted for as cost-method investments and not measured at fair value.

(4) Primarily comprising manufactured housing loan collateral related to two consolidated financial guaranty VIEs.

(5) Comprising consolidated debt related to NIMS VIEs ($2.8 million) and financial guaranty VIEs ($91.8 million).

At December 31, 2013, our total Level III assets approximated 4.0% of total assets measured at fair value and our total Level III liabilities accounted for 100% of total liabilities measured at fair value. Realized and unrealized gains and losses on Level III assets and liabilities in the rollforward represent gains and losses for the periods in which they were classified as Level III.

Impact of Non-Performance Risk Fair Value Disclosure [Table Text Block]

The following tables quantify the estimated impact of our non-performance risk on our derivative assets, derivative liabilities and net VIE liabilities (in aggregate by type) presented in our condensed consolidated balance sheets as of the dates indicated:

(In basis points)	September 30, 2014	December 31, 2013	September 30, 2013	December 31, 2012
Radian Group’s five-year CDS spread	317	323	419	913

(In millions)	Fair Value Liability before Consideration of Radian Group’s Non-Performance Risk September 30, 2014		Impact of Radian Group’s Non-Performance Risk September 30, 2014		Fair Value Liability Recorded September 30, 2014
Product
Corporate CDOs	$	16.0	$	15.6	$	0.4
Non-Corporate CDO-related (1)	276.9		144.8		132.1
NIMS-related (2)	5.6		2.4		3.2
Total	$	298.5	$	162.8	$	135.7

(In millions)	Fair Value Liability before Consideration of Radian Group’s Non-Performance Risk December 31, 2013		Impact of Radian Group’s Non-Performance Risk December 31, 2013		Fair Value Liability Recorded December 31, 2013
Product
Corporate CDOs	$	30.4	$	29.0	$	1.4
Non-Corporate CDO-related (1)	409.7		178.7		231.0
NIMS-related (2)	5.0		2.2		2.8
Total	$	445.1	$	209.9	$	235.2

________________

(1) Includes the net fair value liability recorded within derivative assets and derivative liabilities and the net fair value liabilities included in our consolidated VIEs.

(2) Includes NIMS VIE debt.

Fair Value, Assets and Liabilities Measured on Recurring Basis, Unobservable Input Reconciliation [Table Text Block]

The following is a rollforward of Level III assets and liabilities measured at fair value for the three months ended September 30, 2014:

			Realized and Unrealized Gains (Losses)
(In millions)	Beginning Balance at July 1, 2014		Included in Earnings (1)			Included in OCI			Purchases		Sales		Issuances		Settlements			Transfers Into (Out of) Level III (2)				Ending Balance at September 30, 2014
Investments:
State and municipal obligations	$	19.5	$	0.5		$	—		$	0.2	$	—	$	—	$	1.4		$	—			$	18.8
Other ABS	74.4		0.3			(0.9		)	—		—		—		—			(73.8		)	(3)	—
Other investments	82.8		0.2			—			—		—		—		0.1			—				82.9
Total Level III Investments	176.7		1.0			(0.9		)	0.2		—		—		1.5			(73.8		)		101.7
Other assets	90.4		2.6			—			—		—		—		4.9			—				88.1
Total Level III Assets	$	267.1	$	3.6		$	(0.9	)	$	0.2	$	—	$	—	$	6.4		$	(73.8	)		$	189.8
Derivative liabilities, net	$	193.8	$	18.5		$	—		$	—	$	—	$	—	$	(3.9	)	$	—			$	179.2
VIE debt	93.6		(1.6		)	—			—		—		—		4.0			—				91.2
Total Level III Liabilities, net	$	287.4	$	16.9		$	—		$	—	$	—	$	—	$	0.1		$	—			$	270.4

______________________

(1) Includes unrealized gains (losses) for the three months ended September 30, 2014, relating to assets and liabilities still held as of September 30, 2014 as follows: $(0.3) million for investments, $0.6 million for other assets, $14.4 million for derivative liabilities and $(0.9) million for VIE debt.

(2) Transfers are recognized at the end of the period as the availability of market observed inputs changes from period to period.

(3) During the period, certain securities previously classified in Level III were transferred to Level II as third-party pricing became available.

The following is a rollforward of Level III assets and liabilities measured at fair value for the nine months ended September 30, 2014:

			Realized and Unrealized Gains (Losses)
(In millions)	Beginning Balance at January 1, 2014		Included in Earnings (1)			Included in OCI			Purchases		Sales		Issuances		Settlements			Transfers Into (Out of) Level III (2)				Ending Balance at September 30, 2014
Investments:
State and municipal obligations	$	18.7	$	1.3		$	—		$	0.2	$	—	$	—	$	1.4		$	—			$	18.8
Other ABS	0.9		0.4			(1.0		)	29.2		—		—		0.4			(29.1		)	(3)	—
Equity securities	0.4		(0.4		)	—			—		—		—		—			—				—
Other investments	81.5		1.5			—			—		—		—		0.1			—				82.9
Total Level III Investments	101.5		2.8			(1.0		)	29.4		—		—		1.9			(29.1		)		101.7
Other assets	91.9		11.5			—			—		—		—		15.3			—				88.1
Total Level III Assets	$	193.4	$	14.3		$	(1.0	)	$	29.4	$	—	$	—	$	17.2		$	(29.1	)		$	189.8
Derivative liabilities, net	$	300.9	$	129.0		$	—		$	—	$	—	$	—	$	(7.3	)	$	—			$	179.2
VIE debt	94.6		(8.9		)	—			—		—		—		12.3			—				91.2
Total Level III Liabilities, net	$	395.5	$	120.1		$	—		$	—	$	—	$	—	$	5.0		$	—			$	270.4

______________________

(1) Includes unrealized gains (losses) for the nine months ended September 30, 2014, relating to assets and liabilities still held as of September 30, 2014 as follows: $0.1 million for investments, $5.3 million for other assets, $100.8 million for derivative liabilities and $(6.8) million for VIE debt.

(2) Transfers are recognized at the end of the period as the availability of market observed inputs changes from period to period.

(3) During the period, $74.3 million of other ABS securities were transferred from Level III to Level II, as third-party pricing became available. We also transferred $45.2 million of other ABS securities previously classified as Level II to Level III, as the pricing inputs were no longer considered observable.

The following is a rollforward of Level III assets and liabilities measured at fair value for the three months ended September 30, 2013:

			Realized and Unrealized Gains (Losses)
(In millions)	Beginning Balance at July 1, 2013		Included in Earnings (1)			Included in OCI		Purchases		Sales		Issuances		Settlements			Transfers Into (Out of) Level III (2)		Ending Balance at September 30, 2013
Investments:
State and municipal obligations	$	19.4	$	0.4		$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	1.4		$	—	$	18.4
Other ABS	1.2		—			—		—		—		—		0.2			—		1.0
Equity securities	0.4		—			—		—		—		—		—			—		0.4
Other investments	77.4		2.3			—		0.5		—		—		—			—		80.2
Total Level III Investments	98.4		2.7			—		0.5		—		—		1.6			—		100.0
NIMS derivative assets	1.6		—			—		—		—		—		—			—		1.6
Other assets	96.0		2.7			—		—		—		—		5.5			—		93.2
Total Level III Assets	$	196.0	$	5.4		$	—	$	0.5	$	—	$	—	$	7.1		$	—	$	194.8
Derivative liabilities, net	$	343.6	$	11.4		$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	(5.3	)	$	—	$	337.5
VIE debt	106.8		(1.8		)	—		—		—		—		4.4			—		104.2
Total Level III Liabilities, net	$	450.4	$	9.6		$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	(0.9	)	$	—	$	441.7

______________

(1) Includes unrealized gains (losses) for the three months ended September 30, 2013, relating to assets and liabilities still held as of September 30, 2013 as follows: $2.3 million for investments, $0.5 million for other assets, $5.9 million for derivative liabilities and $(1.0) million for VIE debt.

(2) Transfers are recognized at the end of the period as the availability of market observed inputs changes from period to period.

The following is a rollforward of Level III assets and liabilities measured at fair value for the nine months ended September 30, 2013:

			Realized and Unrealized Gains (Losses)
(In millions)	Beginning Balance at January 1, 2013		Included in Earnings (1)			Included in OCI		Purchases		Sales		Issuances		Settlements			Transfers Into (Out of) Level III (2)				Ending Balance at September 30, 2013
Investments:
State and municipal obligations	$	19.0	$	0.8		$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	1.4		$	—			$	18.4
Corporate bonds and notes	—		(0.1		)	—		2.7		—		—		—			(2.6		)	(3)	—
CMBS	—		—			—		3.1		3.1		—		—			—				—
Other ABS	1.7		—			—		—		—		—		0.7			—				1.0
Equity securities	1.0		—			—		—		0.6		—		—			—				0.4
Other investments	79.0		0.4			—		1.3		0.1		—		0.4			—				80.2
Total Level III Investments	100.7		1.1			—		7.1		3.8		—		2.5			(2.6		)		100.0
NIMS derivative assets	1.6		—			—		—		—		—		—			—				1.6
Other assets	99.2		11.1			—		—		—		—		17.1			—				93.2
Total Level III Assets	$	201.5	$	12.2		$	—	$	7.1	$	3.8	$	—	$	19.6		$	(2.6	)		$	194.8
Derivative liabilities, net	$	254.9	$	(69.7	)	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	(12.9	)	$	—			$	337.5
VIE debt	108.9		(9.0		)	—		—		—		—		13.7			—				104.2
Total Level III Liabilities, net	$	363.8	$	(78.7	)	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	—	$	0.8		$	—			$	441.7

______________

(1) Includes unrealized gains (losses) for the nine months ended September 30, 2013, relating to assets and liabilities still held at September 30, 2013 as follows: $0.4 million for investments, $3.9 million for other assets, $(83.5) million for derivative liabilities and $(6.4) million for VIE debt.

(2) Transfers are recognized at the end of the period as the availability of market observed inputs changes from period to period.

(3) During the period, pricing from a third-party pricing source became available that utilized observable inputs for individual instruments. As a result, these instruments were transferred out of Level III and into Level II.

Fair Value Measurements, Recurring and Nonrecurring, Valuation Techniques [Table Text Block]

The following table summarizes the significant unobservable inputs used in our recurring Level III fair value measurements as of September 30, 2014:

(In millions)	Fair Value Net Asset (Liability) September 30, 2014 (1)			Valuation Technique	Unobservable Input	Range/ Weighted Average
Level III Assets/Liabilities:
State and municipal obligations	$	18.6		Discounted cash flow	Discount rate				11.8	%
					Expected loss				11.0	%
Other investments	82.5			Discounted cash flow	Discount rate				0.8	%
Corporate CDOs	(0.4		)	Base correlation model	Radian Group correlation to corporate index				85.0	%
					Average credit spread	0.1	%	-	0.6	%
					Own credit spread (2)	1.1	%	-	4.1	%
CDO of CMBS	(39.3		)	Discounted cash flow	Radian Group correlation to CMBS transaction index				80.0	%
					Own credit spread (2)	1.1	%	-	4.1	%
TruPs CDOs	(18.4		)	Discounted cash flow	Principal recovery				75.0	%
					Principal recovery (stressed)				65.0	%
					Probability of conditional liquidity payment	0.2	%	-	10.0	%
					Own credit spread (2)	1.1	%	-	4.1	%
TruPs-related VIE	(46.7		)	Discounted cash flow	Discount rate				7.8	%
Other non-corporate CDOs and derivative transactions	(74.4		)	Risk-based model	Average life (in years)	<1		-	16
					Own credit spread (2)	1.1	%	-	4.1	%
NIMS VIE	(3.2		)	Discounted cash flow	NIMS credit spread				40.1	%
					Own credit spread (2)				7.2	%

________________

(1) Excludes certain assets and liabilities for which we do not develop quantitative unobservable inputs. The fair value estimates for these assets and liabilities are developed using third-party pricing information, generally without adjustment.

(2) Represents the range of our CDS spread that a typical market participant might use in the valuation analysis based on the remaining term of the investment.

The following table summarizes the significant unobservable inputs used in our recurring Level III fair value measurements as of December 31, 2013:

(In millions)	Fair Value Net Asset (Liability) December 31, 2013 (1)			Valuation Technique	Unobservable Input	Range/ Weighted Average
Level III Assets/Liabilities:
State and municipal obligations	$	18.7		Discounted cash flow	Discount rate				12.3	%
					Expected loss				11.1	%
Other investments	81.0			Discounted cash flow	Discount rate				1.2	%
Corporate CDOs	(1.4		)	Base correlation model	Radian Group correlation to corporate index				85.0	%
					Average credit spread	0.1	%	-	0.9	%
					Own credit spread (2)	0.8	%	-	4.3	%
CDO of CMBS	(67.8		)	Discounted cash flow	Radian Group correlation to CMBS transaction index	72.0	%	-	85.0	%
					Own credit spread (2)	0.8	%	-	4.3	%
TruPs CDOs	(43.9		)	Discounted cash flow	Principal recovery				75.0	%
					Principal recovery (stressed)				65.0	%
					Probability of conditional liquidity payment	1.1	%	-	12.4	%
					Own credit spread (2)	0.8	%	-	4.3	%
TruPs-related VIE	(68.4		)	Discounted cash flow	Discount rate				13.1	%
Other non-corporate CDOs and derivative transactions	(119.4		)	Risk-based model	Average life (in years)	<1		-	20
					Own credit spread (2)	0.8	%	-	4.3	%
NIMS VIE	(2.8		)	Discounted cash flow	NIMS credit spread				43.8	%
					Own credit spread (2)				7.9	%

________________

(1) Excludes certain assets and liabilities for which we do not develop quantitative unobservable inputs. The fair value estimates for these assets and liabilities are developed using third-party pricing information, generally without adjustment.

(2) Represents the range of our CDS spread that a typical market participant might use in the valuation analysis based on the remaining term of the investment.

Fair Value, by Balance Sheet Grouping [Table Text Block]

The carrying value and estimated fair value of other selected assets and liabilities not carried at fair value on our condensed consolidated balance sheets were as follows as of the dates indicated:

	September 30, 2014					December 31, 2013
(In millions)	Carrying Amount		Estimated Fair Value			Carrying Amount		Estimated Fair Value
Assets:
Fixed-maturities held to maturity	$	0.1	$	0.1	(1)	$	0.4	$	0.4	(1)
Other invested assets	39.6		49.7		(1)	47.4		54.3		(1)
Liabilities:
Long-term debt (3)	1,201.1		1,703.9		(1)	930.1		1,502.7		(1)
Non-derivative financial guaranty liabilities	136.2		170.1		(2)	144.7		189.1		(2)

______________________

(1) These estimated fair values would be classified in Level II of the fair value hierarchy.

(2) These estimated fair values would be classified in Level III of the fair value hierarchy.

(3) The carrying amount of long-term debt is net of the equity component, which is accounted for under the accounting standard for convertible debt instruments that may be settled in cash upon conversion (including partial cash settlement). The fair value is estimated based on the quoted market prices for the same or similar issues. See Note 11 for further information.