EX-99.(C)(2)(I) 2 ex99c2i.htm EXHIBIT (C)(2)(I) ex99c2i.htm

Exhibit (c)(2)(i)
 
Discussion Materials Regarding
January 7, 2011
Project GIBSON
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Table of Contents
I. Income Statement Discussion
II. Discounted Cash Flow Analyses
III. Market Valuation Metrics
IV. Potential Talking Points with Sun
Table of Contents
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Income Statement Discussion
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I/S - Original Model (Dec. 22, 2010)
Income Statement Discussion
§ Shown is the Income Statement from to Dec. 22, 2010, prior to the adjustments due to the Consulting
 audit that demonstrated problems with manufacturing operations
§ Revenues, expenses and EBIT are shown by operating unit: Distribution, Contract Manufacturing and
 GIBSON Manufacturing
§ Assumptions:
 § Distribution will end at year end 2012
 § Manufacturing will recommence January 2012
§ Based on Management’s projections
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I/S - New Model (Jan. 5, 2011)
§ Shown is the Income Statement as of January 5, 2011
§ Revenues, expenses and EBIT are shown by operating unit: Distribution, Contract Manufacturing and
 GIBSON Manufacturing
§ Assumptions:
 § Distribution will end at year end 2012
 § Manufacturing will recommence March 2012, two months later than original plan (December
 22,2010)
 § Includes additional changes by management to reflect new assumptions regarding contract
 manufacturing and other items
§ Based on Management’s projections
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Income Statement Discussion
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§ Shown is a comparison of the original model as of December 22, 2010 and Company’s revised model as
 of January 5, 2010
§ Based on Management’s projections
I/S Comparison - Dec. 22, 2010 vs. Jan. 5, 2011
-
Comparison = New Model - Original Model.
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Income Statement Discussion
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I/S Scenario 1 - Shut Down Mar. 31, 2011
§ Assumed that GIBSON’s manufacturing operations are discontinued March 31, 2011
§ Contract manufacturing assumed to continue as detailed in the Company plan (January 5, 2011)
§ GIBSON manufacturing expense assumptions:
Expense
2012P (‘000s)
Expense % Remaining
Material Charges
$434
0%
Salaries & Wages(1)
14,129
NA
Operational Supplies
531
25%
Chemical & Solvents
247
0%
Repairs & Maintenance
608
25%
Utilities
1,146
25%
Freight
74
0%
Legal & Professional(2)
5,200
NA
Facility Maintenance & Security
566
75%
All Other Manufacturing Expense
9,511
50%
(1) Removed salary expenses allocated to Manufacturing for: Manufacturing, Packaging, Facilities, QC & QA, Commercial, Sales & Marketing, Salary Adjustments
 and Bonus Payments; for 2012 $10.4 million eliminated and $3.8 million remain.
(2) Removed Lachman Expense each year; for 2012 $3.8 million eliminated and $1.4 million remain.
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Income Statement Discussion
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I/S Scenario 1 - Shut Down Mar. 31, 2011
§ Shown is the income statement from Jan 5, 2011 adjusted to assume a plant shut down March 31, 2011
 (see assumptions on prior page)
§ Assumes in-licensing capital expenditure of $10 million each year beginning 2012; amortized over 5
 years
§ Flatline manufacturing expenses in future years, post 2012
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Income Statement Discussion
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I/S Scenario 2 - Shut Down Mar. 31, 2012
§ Assumed that GIBSON’s manufacturing operations are discontinued as of March 31, 2012
§ Contract manufacturing revenue and expenses per Management’s guidance, increased due to the site
 transfer of select products from the GIBSON facility
§ GIBSON manufacturing expense assumptions from previous assumptions page
§ Flatline manufacturing expenses in future years, post 2013
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Income Statement Discussion
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I/S Scenario 3 - Jan. 5, 2011, Delayed 2 Quarters
§ Based on Management projections from January 5, 2011 with Manufacturing revenue and Material Costs
 delayed 2 quarters
§ Assumes in-licensing capital expenditure of $10 million each year beginning 2012; amortized over 5
 years
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Income Statement Discussion
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I/S Comparison - Jan. 5, 2011 vs 2 Quarters Adjustment
§ Shown is a comparison of January 5, 2011 model and the January 5, 2011 model adjusted assuming
 manufacturing delayed 2 quarters
§ January 5, 2011 model and the January 5, 2011 2Q delayed model are adjusted for in-licensing capital
 expenditure of $10 million each year beginning 2012; amortized over 5 years
Comparison = New Model - New Model (Delayed Two Quarters).
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Income Statement Discussion
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Discounted Cash Flow Analyses
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Key Assumptions Underlying our Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow Analyses
§ At the instruction of the Independent Committee (the “Committee”), we have performed discounted cash
 flow analyses on different potential operating scenarios:
  Base Case: Management’s current forecast through fiscal year 2016, which reflects the resumption of
 GIBSON’s manufacturing activities in fiscal year 2012 (the “Forecast”) in addition to ongoing contract
 manufactured business
  Scenario 1: The Forecast, with manufacturing activities terminating on March 31, 2011
  Scenario 2: The Forecast, with manufacturing activities terminating on March 31, 2012
  Scenario 3: Management’s current forecast above; however, adjusted assuming the ability to manufacture
 products is delayed a further two quarters
§ We have been advised by the Committee that the Forecast examined by us has been reasonably
 prepared on a basis reflecting the best currently available estimates and judgments of the senior
 management of GIBSON
§ For scenarios involving the termination of manufacturing activities, we have relied on the advice of the
 Committee regarding certain assumptions (e.g., shutdown costs, liquidation proceeds, etc.) to enable this
 analysis and express no opinion with respect to the estimates and judgments on which those
 assumptions are based
§ Further, we acknowledge to the Committee that adjustments to these assumptions may have a material
 effect on the outcome of the discounted cash flow analysis
§ Finally, we are not expressing any opinion as to the relative merits of any alternative operating scenario
 that might exist for GIBSON or the effect of any other transaction in which GIBSON might engage
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Base Case - New Plan (January 5, 2011)
§ Based on GIBSON’s balance sheet and
 cash flow projections for 2011-2016
§ EBITDA exit multiples ranging from 8.0x
 to 10.0x
§ Discount rates ranging from 11.0% to
 15.0%
§ Present value as of January 31, 2011
§ Net working capital (per Management
 balance sheet projections) and capital
 expenditures (includes $10 million per
 year beginning 2012) held constant
 throughout scenarios
§ Reflects GIBSON’s common shares
 outstanding per 10Q as of 9/30/10, includes
 Series B shares which convert 1:1
Parameters
GIBSON Stand-Alone (Price Per Share)
Exit Multiple Range
Discounted Cash Flow Analyses
Discount
Rate
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Scenario 1 - Cease Manufacturing March 31, 2011
Parameters
GIBSON Stand-Alone (Price Per Share)
Discounted Cash Flow Analyses
§ Based on GIBSON’s balance sheet and
 cash flow projections for 2011-2016
§ EBITDA exit multiples ranging from 8.0x
 to 10.0x
§ Discount rates ranging from 11.0% to
 15.0%
§ Present value as of January 31, 2011
§ Net working capital (per Management
 balance sheet projections) and capital
 expenditures (includes $10 million per
 year beginning 2012) held constant
 throughout scenarios
§ Reflects GIBSON’s common shares
 outstanding per 10Q as of 9/30/10, includes
 Series B shares which convert 1:1
§ Flatlined manufactured operating expenses
 after 2012
Exit Multiple Range
Discount
Rate
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Scenario 2 - Cease Manufacturing March 31, 2012
Parameters
GIBSON Stand-Alone (Price Per Share)
Discounted Cash Flow Analyses
§ Based on GIBSON’s balance sheet and
 cash flow projections for 2011-2016
§ EBITDA exit multiples ranging from 8.0x
 to 10.0x
§ Discount rates ranging from 11.0% to
 15.0%
§ Present value as of January 31, 2011
§ Net working capital (per Management
 balance sheet projections) and capital
 expenditures (includes $10 million per
 year beginning 2012) held constant
 throughout scenarios
§ Reflects GIBSON’s common shares
 outstanding per 10Q as of 9/30/10, includes
 Series B shares which convert 1:1
§ Flatlined manufactured operating expenses
 after 2013
Exit Multiple Range
Discount
Rate
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Scenario 3 - New Plan (Two Quarter Delay)
Parameters
GIBSON Stand-Alone (Price Per Share)
Discounted Cash Flow Analyses
§ Based on GIBSON’s balance sheet and
 cash flow projections for 2011-2016
§ EBITDA exit multiples ranging from 8.0x
 to 10.0x
§ Discount rates ranging from 11.0% to
 15.0%
§ Present value as of January 31, 2011
§ Net working capital (per Management
 balance sheet projections) and capital
 expenditures (includes $10 million per
 year beginning 2012) held constant
 throughout scenarios
§ Reflects GIBSON’s common shares
 outstanding per 10Q as of 9/30/10, includes
 Series B shares which convert 1:1
Exit Multiple Range
Discount
Rate
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Market Valuation Metrics
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Selected Publicly Traded Companies
Note: No selected company is directly comparable to GIBSON.
Market Valuation Metrics
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Market Performance of Selected Companies
Last Twelve Months
Source: FactSet as of January 5, 2011.
Market Valuation Metrics
(71.9%)
(9.6%)
25.1%
Last Three Years
(21.6%)
12.3.%
8.1%
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Selected Company Operating Metrics
3 Year Revenue CAGR (FY 2007-2010E)
3 Year EBITDA CAGR (FY 2007-2010E)
LTM Gross Profit Margin %
LTM EBITDA Margin %
Median: 8.1%
Market Valuation Metrics
Sources: SEC filings, CapitalIQ and FactSet Research Systems. Data as of January 05, 2011.
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Selected Company Revenue Valuation Multiples
EV / LTM Revenue
EV / CY 2011P Revenue
EV / CY 2010E Revenue
Market Valuation Metrics
Sources: SEC filings, CapitalIQ and FactSet Research Systems. Data as of January 05, 2011.
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Selected Company EBITDA Valuation Multiples
EV / LTM EBITDA
EV / CY 2010E EBITDA
EV / CY 2011P EBITDA
Market Valuation Metrics
Sources: SEC filings, CapitalIQ and FactSet Research Systems. Data as of January 05, 2011.
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Selected M&A Transactions
Sources: Capital IQ and public company filings.
Market Valuation Metrics
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Premiums in Public Acquisitions
§ William Blair analyzed 241 domestic public transactions announced since January 1, 2000 in which
 
1.0% to 49.9% of the target’s equity was acquired with the acquiror owning greater than 50.1% but
 less than 99% of the target prior to the transaction
. Upon completion of the transaction the acquiror
 owned 100% of the target.
§ William Blair compared the price of each transaction to the closing price of the target stock one day,
 one week, one month, 90 days, 180 days, and 360 days prior to the announcement of the
 transaction
Source: FactSet Research Systems. Data as of December 28, 2010.
Market Valuation Metrics
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Premiums in Public Acquisitions
§ William Blair analyzed 42 domestic public transactions announced since January 1, 2000 in which
 
15% to 35% of the target’s equity was acquired with the acquiror owning between 65% to 85% of
 the target prior to the transaction
. Upon completion of the transaction the acquiror owned 100% of
 the target.
§ William Blair compared the price of each transaction to the closing price of the target stock one day,
 one week, one month, 90 days, 180 days, and 360 days prior to the announcement of the
 transaction
Source: FactSet Research Systems. Data as of December 28, 2010.
Market Valuation Metrics
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Preliminary Talking Points
for Sun Negotiation
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Preliminary Talking Points for Sun Negotiation
§ The announced premium on December 6, 2010 of 5% represents a below median premium for the
 transaction. This is the case for both:
  Public company acquisitions generally
  Public company acquisitions where the buyer owned greater than 50.1%, but less than 99.9% prior to
 acquiring the remaining shares
  Public company acquisitions where the buyer owned greater than 65.0%, but less than 85% prior to
 acquiring the remaining shares
§ At a proposed offer price per share of $4.75, it is not clear that the value of the shares has been
 maximized
  The Independent Committee may want to consider an alternative to the current business plan, whereby
 all manufacturing activities at the plant cease as soon as possible
  The Independent Committee may consider other possible alternatives including finding alternative buyers
 for the minority shares
  The minority shareholders may not sell, leaving Sun as owner of less than the 90% threshold to complete
 a squeeze out merger
  Exploration of all of these alternatives take time and will delay a possible transaction with Sun
Potential Talking Points with Sun
 In an attempt to maximize the potential value obtained in a possible transaction with Sun, we believe
 the following points represent some of the key themes that should be developed during future
 negotiations:
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Preliminary Talking Points for Sun Negotiation (ctd.)
§ The announced share price has been deemed unsatisfactory by the market
  Immediately following the announcement, the stock price increased to a high of $5.29 on December 13th
 due to the expectation that a higher price would be achieved
  There have been numerous shareholder lawsuits filed against the Company on the basis that $4.75 per
 share is inadequate
  The Company has received correspondence from existing shareholders (including large institutional
 investors) stating their opposition to the deal given the proposed price per share
§ To ensure an expeditious transaction is achieved, it is imperative that the Company achieve a
 higher share price than $4.75 that will enable broad support from the minority shareholders. If not,
 the deal will encounter several challenges:
  Enhanced legal costs
  Delayed closing
  Deterioration of the value of the Company (i.e., lost employees, strained customer relationships,
 distraction from consent decree remediation work, etc.)
Potential Talking Points with Sun
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