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Loans
12 Months Ended
Dec. 31, 2022
Receivables [Abstract]  
Loans
Loans
Loans includes (i) loans held for investment that are accounted for at amortized cost net of allowance for loan losses or at fair value under the fair value option and (ii) loans held for sale that are accounted for at the lower of cost or fair value. Interest on loans is recognized over the life of the loan and is recorded on an accrual basis.
The table below presents information about loans.
$ in millionsAmortized
Cost
Fair ValueHeld For SaleTotal
As of December 2022    
Loan Type    
Corporate$36,822 $996 $2,317 $40,135 
Commercial real estate26,222 1,146 1,511 28,879 
Residential real estate18,523 4,511 1 23,035 
Securities-based
16,671   16,671 
Other collateralized
50,473 716 513 51,702 
Consumer:   
Installment6,326   6,326 
Credit cards15,820   15,820 
Other1,723 286 252 2,261 
Total loans, gross172,580 7,655 4,594 184,829 
Allowance for loan losses(5,543)  (5,543)
Total loans$167,037 $7,655 $4,594 $179,286 
As of December 2021    
Loan Type    
Corporate$34,663 $1,609 $1,371 $37,643 
Commercial real estate24,267 1,588 3,145 29,000 
Residential real estate18,389 6,185 100 24,674 
Securities-based
16,652 – – 16,652 
Other collateralized
35,916 955 1,392 38,263 
Consumer:   
Installment3,672 – – 3,672 
Credit cards8,212 – – 8,212 
Other1,736 432 1,851 4,019 
Total loans, gross143,507 10,769 7,859 162,135 
Allowance for loan losses(3,573)– – (3,573)
Total loans$139,934 $10,769 $7,859 $158,562 
In the fourth quarter of 2022, the firm changed the classification of loans to better reflect the nature of the underlying collateral. This includes the addition of the securities-based and other collateralized loan types, as well as the removal of the wealth management loan type. This also resulted in reclassifications of certain loans in the corporate and other loan types to the other collateralized loan type. Prior periods have been conformed to the current presentation.
In the table above:
The increase in credit cards from December 2021 to December 2022 included approximately $2.0 billion relating to the firm’s acquisition of the General Motors co-branded credit card portfolio.
Loans held for investment that are accounted for at amortized cost include net deferred fees and costs, and unamortized premiums and discounts, which are amortized over the life of the loan. These amounts were less than 1% of loans accounted for at amortized cost as of both December 2022 and December 2021.
The following is a description of the loan types in the table above:
Corporate. Corporate loans includes term loans, revolving lines of credit, letter of credit facilities and bridge loans, and are principally used for operating and general corporate purposes, or in connection with acquisitions. Corporate loans are secured (typically by a senior lien on the assets of the borrower) or unsecured, depending on the loan purpose, the risk profile of the borrower and other factors.
Commercial Real Estate. Commercial real estate loans includes originated loans that are directly or indirectly secured by hotels, retail stores, multifamily housing complexes and commercial and industrial properties. Commercial real estate loans also includes loans extended to clients who warehouse assets that are directly or indirectly backed by commercial real estate. In addition, commercial real estate includes loans purchased by the firm.
Residential Real Estate. Residential real estate loans primarily includes loans extended to wealth management clients and to clients who warehouse assets that are directly or indirectly secured by residential real estate. In addition, residential real estate includes loans purchased by the firm.
Securities-Based. Securities-based loans includes loans that are secured by stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and exchange-traded funds. These loans are primarily extended to the firm's wealth management clients and used for purposes other than purchasing, carrying or trading margin stocks. Securities-based loans require borrowers to post additional collateral based on changes in the underlying collateral's fair value.
Other Collateralized. Other collateralized loans includes loans that are backed by specific collateral (other than securities and real estate). Such loans are extended to clients who warehouse assets that are directly or indirectly secured by corporate loans, consumer loans and other assets. Other collateralized loans also includes loans to investment funds (managed by third parties) that are collateralized by capital commitments of the funds' investors or assets held by the fund, as well as other secured loans extended to the firm's wealth management clients.
Installment. Installment loans are unsecured loans originated by the firm (including point-of-sale loans that the firm began to originate through the GreenSky platform in the third quarter of 2022).
Credit Cards. Credit card loans are loans made pursuant to revolving lines of credit issued to consumers by the firm.
Other. Other loans includes unsecured loans extended to wealth management clients and unsecured consumer and credit card loans purchased by the firm.
See Note 4 for an overview of the firm’s fair value measurement policies, valuation techniques and significant inputs used to determine the fair value of loans, and Note 5 for information about loans within the fair value hierarchy.
Credit Quality
Risk Assessment. The firm’s risk assessment process includes evaluating the credit quality of its loans by the firm’s independent risk oversight and control function. For corporate loans and a majority of securities-based, real estate, other collateralized and other loans, the firm performs credit analyses which incorporate initial and ongoing evaluations of the capacity and willingness of a borrower to meet its financial obligations. These credit evaluations are performed on an annual basis or more frequently if deemed necessary as a result of events or changes in circumstances. The firm determines an internal credit rating for the borrower by considering the results of the credit evaluations and assumptions with respect to the nature of and outlook for the borrower’s industry and the economic environment. The internal credit rating does not take into consideration collateral received or other credit support arrangements. For consumer loans and for loans that are not assigned an internal credit rating, the firm reviews certain key metrics, including, but not limited to, the Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) credit scores, delinquency status, collateral value and other risk factors.

The table below presents gross loans by an internally determined public rating agency equivalent or other credit metrics and the concentration of secured and unsecured loans.
$ in millions
Investment-Grade
Non-Investment- GradeOther Metrics/UnratedTotal
As of December 2022   
Accounting Method   
Amortized cost$63,971 $79,648 $28,961 $172,580 
Fair value1,735 3,349 2,571 7,655 
Held for sale466 4,082 46 4,594 
Total$66,172 $87,079 $31,578 $184,829 
Loan Type    
Corporate$10,200 $29,935 $ $40,135 
Real estate:   
Commercial5,208 23,536 135 28,879 
Residential3,710 13,954 5,371 23,035 
Securities-based
12,901 764 3,006 16,671 
Other collateralized
33,093 18,291 318 51,702 
Consumer:   
Installment  6,326 6,326 
Credit cards  15,820 15,820 
Other1,060 599 602 2,261 
Total$66,172 $87,079 $31,578 $184,829 
Secured85 %93 %27 %79 %
Unsecured15 %7 %73 %21 %
Total100 %100 %100 %100 %
As of December 2021   
Accounting Method   
Amortized cost$50,923 $75,179 $17,405 $143,507 
Fair value2,301 4,634 3,834 10,769 
Held for sale1,650 4,747 1,462 7,859 
Total$54,874 $84,560 $22,701 $162,135 
Loan Type    
Corporate$8,345 $29,183 $115 $37,643 
Real estate:   
Commercial6,283 22,344 373 29,000 
Residential3,194 16,071 5,409 24,674 
Securities-based
13,801 447 2,404 16,652 
Other collateralized
22,290 15,601 372 38,263 
Consumer:   
Installment– – 3,672 3,672 
Credit cards– – 8,212 8,212 
Other961 914 2,144 4,019 
Total$54,874 $84,560 $22,701 $162,135 
Secured85 %92 %36 %82 %
Unsecured15 %%64 %18 %
Total100 %100 %100 %100 %

In the table above:
Substantially all residential real estate, securities-based, other collateralized and other loans included in the other metrics/unrated category consists of loans where the firm uses other key metrics to assess the borrower’s credit quality, such as loan-to-value ratio, delinquency status, collateral value, expected cash flows, FICO credit score (which measures a borrower’s creditworthiness by considering factors such as payment and credit history) and other risk factors.
For installment and credit card loans included in the other metrics/unrated category, the evaluation of credit quality incorporates the borrower’s FICO credit score. FICO credit scores are periodically refreshed by the firm to assess the updated creditworthiness of the borrower. See “Vintage” below for information about installment and credit card loans by FICO credit scores.
The firm also assigns a regulatory risk rating to its loans based on the definitions provided by the U.S. federal bank regulatory agencies. Total loans included 93% of loans as of December 2022 and 92% of loans as of December 2021 that were rated pass/non-criticized.



Vintage. The tables below present gross loans accounted for at amortized cost (excluding installment and credit card loans) by an internally determined public rating agency equivalent or other credit metrics and origination year for term loans.
 As of December 2022
$ in millionsInvestment-
 Grade
Non-Investment-
 Grade
 Other Metrics/
 Unrated
Total
2022$2,607 $4,042 $2 $6,651 
20211,669 4,273  5,942 
2020684 2,595  3,279 
2019209 2,779  2,988 
2018759 1,911  2,670 
2017 or earlier508 2,329  2,837 
Revolving3,709 8,746  12,455 
Corporate10,145 26,675 2 36,822 
2022734 3,971 2 4,707 
2021744 3,487  4,231 
2020407 1,740  2,147 
2019335 1,412  1,747 
2018212 469  681 
2017 or earlier1,238 797 11 2,046 
Revolving1,281 9,382  10,663 
Commercial real estate4,951 21,258 13 26,222 
2022941 1,385 1,307 3,633 
2021932 1,219 1,357 3,508 
2020 14 89 103 
20197 – 99 106 
201810 50 138 198 
2017 or earlier31 10 142 183 
Revolving773 10,019  10,792 
Residential real estate2,694 12,697 3,132 18,523 
20225 –  5 
20181   1 
2017 or earlier 291  291 
Revolving12,895 473 3,006 16,374 
Securities-based 12,901 764 3,006 16,671 
20224,095 1,212 113 5,420 
20211,860 2,577 146 4,583 
2020777 1,795 36 2,608 
2019235 367 12 614 
2018504 149 6 659 
2017 or earlier294 301  595 
Revolving24,504 11,488 2 35,994 
Other collateralized 32,269 17,889 315 50,473 
202244 105  149 
202117 162  179 
2020 29 262 291 
2019 10  10 
2017 or earlier  5 5 
Revolving950 59 80 1,089 
Other1,011 365 347 1,723 
Total$63,971 $79,648 $6,815 $150,434 
Percentage of total42 %53 %5 %100 %
 As of December 2021
$ in millionsInvestment-
 Grade
Non-Investment-
 Grade
Other Metrics/
 Unrated
Total
2021$2,932 $6,843 $– $9,775 
2020675 3,051 3,733 
2019314 3,630 – 3,944 
20181,310 2,751 – 4,061 
2017431 1,737 – 2,168 
2016 or earlier273 1,648 – 1,921 
Revolving2,180 6,806 75 9,061 
Corporate8,115 26,466 82 34,663 
2021799 4,139 94 5,032 
2020532 2,081 – 2,613 
2019444 1,548 – 1,992 
2018478 854 – 1,332 
2017760 625 – 1,385 
2016 or earlier692 824 1,523 
Revolving1,883 8,507 – 10,390 
Commercial real estate5,588 18,578 101 24,267 
2021864 2,744 1,517 5,125 
2020271 564 103 938 
2019– 173 182 
2018– 96 165 261 
201725 73 119 217 
2016 or earlier– 56 57 
Revolving690 10,919 – 11,609 
Residential real estate1,859 14,397 2,133 18,389 
2018– – 
2017– 22 – 22 
2016 or earlier264 – – 264 
Revolving13,537 424 2,404 16,365 
Securities-based
13,801 447 2,404 16,652 
20211,876 4,316 304 6,496 
20201,378 1,598 48 3,024 
2019243 464 19 726 
2018595 180 – 775 
2017303 125 – 428 
2016 or earlier15 47 – 62 
Revolving16,257 8,148 – 24,405 
Other collateralized 20,667 14,878 371 35,916 
202168 290 10 368 
2020– 60 330 390 
201930 20 – 50 
2017– – 
Revolving795 43 82 920 
Other893 413 430 1,736 
Total$50,923 $75,179 $5,521 $131,623 
Percentage of total
39 %57 %%100 %
In the tables above, revolving loans which converted to term loans were $725 million as of December 2022, and primarily included other collateralized loans. Such loans were not material as of December 2021.



The table below presents gross installment loans by refreshed FICO credit scores and origination year and gross credit card loans by refreshed FICO credit scores.
$ in millionsGreater than or
 equal to 660
Less than 660Total
As of December 2022   
2022$4,349 $242 $4,591 
20211,080 109 1,189 
2020251 23 274 
2019160 23 183 
201870 13 83 
2017 or earlier5 1 6 
Installment5,915 411 6,326 
Credit cards10,762 5,058 15,820 
Total$16,677 $5,469 $22,146 
Percentage of total:   
Installment94 %6 %100 %
Credit cards68 %32 %100 %
Total75 %25 %100 %
As of December 2021   
2021$2,017 $42 $2,059 
2020665 40 705 
2019508 61 569 
2018257 42 299 
201732 39 
2016– 
Installment3,480 192 3,672 
Credit cards6,100 2,112 8,212 
Total$9,580 $2,304 $11,884 
Percentage of total:  
Installment95 %%100 %
Credit cards74 %26 %100 %
Total81 %19 %100 %
In the table above, credit card loans consist of revolving lines of credit.
Credit Concentrations. The table below presents the concentration of gross loans by region.
$ in millionsCarrying
 Value
AmericasEMEAAsiaTotal
As of December 2022     
Corporate$40,135 57 %34 %9 %100 %
Commercial real estate28,879 79 %16 %5 %100 %
Residential real estate23,035 96 %3 %1 %100 %
Securities-based
16,671 83 %15 %2 %100 %
Other collateralized
51,702 86 %12 %2 %100 %
Consumer:    
Installment6,326 100 %– – 100 %
Credit cards15,820 100 %– – 100 %
Other2,261 89 %11 %– 100 %
Total$184,829 81 %15 %4 %100 %
As of December 2021    
Corporate$37,643 52 %38 %10 %100 %
Commercial real estate29,000 82 %13 %%100 %
Residential real estate24,674 96 %%%100 %
Securities-based
16,652 77 %16 %%100 %
Other collateralized
38,263 74 %23 %%100 %
Consumer:    
Installment3,672 100 %  100 %
Credit cards8,212 100 %  100 %
Other4,019 89 %11 % 100 %
Total$162,135 76 %19 %%100 %
In the table above:
EMEA represents Europe, Middle East and Africa.
The top five industry concentrations for corporate loans as of December 2022 were 26% for technology, media & telecommunications, 18% for diversified industrials, 11% for real estate, 10% for healthcare and 10% for consumer & retail.
The top five industry concentrations for corporate loans as of December 2021 were 24% for technology, media & telecommunications, 17% for diversified industrials, 13% for natural resources & utilities, 11% for consumer & retail and 10% for healthcare.
Nonaccrual and Past Due Loans. Loans accounted for at amortized cost (other than credit card loans) are placed on nonaccrual status when it is probable that the firm will not collect all principal and interest due under the contractual terms, regardless of the delinquency status or if a loan is past due for 90 days or more, unless the loan is both well collateralized and in the process of collection. At that time, all accrued but uncollected interest is reversed against interest income and interest subsequently collected is recognized on a cash basis to the extent the loan balance is deemed collectible. Otherwise, all cash received is used to reduce the outstanding loan balance. A loan is considered past due when a principal or interest payment has not been made according to its contractual terms. Credit card loans are not placed on nonaccrual status and accrue interest until the loan is paid in full or is charged off.
In certain circumstances, the firm may modify the original terms of a loan agreement by granting a concession to a borrower experiencing financial difficulty, typically in the form of a modification of loan covenants, but may also include forbearance of interest or principal, payment extensions or interest rate reductions. These modifications, to the extent significant, are considered TDRs. Loan modifications that extend payment terms for a period of less than 90 days are generally considered insignificant and therefore not reported as TDRs.
The table below presents information about past due loans.
$ in millions30-89 days90 days
 or more
Total
As of December 2022   
Corporate$ $92 $92 
Commercial real estate47 362 409 
Residential real estate4 6 10 
Securities-based
1  1 
Other collateralized
10 5 15 
Consumer:  
Installment46 17 63 
Credit cards291 265 556 
Other17 5 22 
Total$416 $752 $1,168 
Total divided by gross loans at amortized cost0.7 %
As of December 2021   
Corporate$$90 $95 
Commercial real estate158 165 
Residential real estate
Securities-based
– 
Consumer:  
Installment20 27 
Credit cards86 71 157 
Other15 18 
Total$136 $338 $474 
Total divided by gross loans at amortized cost0.3 %
The table below presents information about nonaccrual loans.
As of December
$ in millions20222021
Corporate$1,432 $1,421 
Commercial real estate1,079 856 
Residential real estate93 
Securities-based
 
Other collateralized
65 139 
Installment41 43 
Total$2,710 $2,469 
Total divided by gross loans at amortized cost1.6 %1.7 %
In the table above:
Nonaccrual loans included $483 million as of December 2022 and $254 million as of December 2021 of loans that were 30 days or more past due.
Loans that were 90 days or more past due and still accruing were not material as of both December 2022 and December 2021.
Nonaccrual loans included $204 million of corporate loans as of December 2022 and $267 million of corporate and commercial real estate loans as of December 2021 that were modified in a TDR. The firm’s lending commitments related to these loans were not material as of both December 2022 and December 2021. Installment loans that were modified in a TDR were not material as of both December 2022 and December 2021.
Allowance for loan losses as a percentage of total nonaccrual loans was 204.5% as of December 2022 and 144.7% as of December 2021.

Allowance for Credit Losses
The firm’s allowance for credit losses consists of the allowance for losses on loans and lending commitments accounted for at amortized cost. Loans and lending commitments accounted for at fair value or accounted for at the lower of cost or fair value are not subject to an allowance for credit losses.
To determine the allowance for credit losses, the firm classifies its loans and lending commitments accounted for at amortized cost into wholesale and consumer portfolios. These portfolios represent the level at which the firm has developed and documented its methodology to determine the allowance for credit losses. The allowance for credit losses is measured on a collective basis for loans that exhibit similar risk characteristics using a modeled approach and on an asset-specific basis for loans that do not share similar risk characteristics.
The allowance for credit losses takes into account the weighted average of a range of forecasts of future economic conditions over the expected life of the loan and lending commitments. The expected life of each loan or lending commitment is determined based on the contractual term adjusted for extension options or demand features, or is modeled in the case of revolving credit card loans. The forecasts include baseline, favorable and adverse economic scenarios over a three-year period. For loans with expected lives beyond three years, the model reverts to historical loss information based on a non-linear modeled approach. The forecasted economic scenarios consider a number of risk factors relevant to the wholesale and consumer portfolios described below. The firm applies judgment in weighing individual scenarios each quarter based on a variety of factors, including the firm’s internally derived economic outlook, market consensus, recent macroeconomic conditions and industry trends.
The allowance for credit losses also includes qualitative components which allow management to reflect the uncertain nature of economic forecasting, capture uncertainty regarding model inputs, and account for model imprecision and concentration risk.
Management’s estimate of credit losses entails judgment about the expected life of the loan and loan collectability at the reporting dates, and there are uncertainties inherent in those judgments. The allowance for credit losses is subject to a governance process that involves review and approval by senior management within the firm’s independent risk oversight and control functions. Personnel within the firm’s independent risk oversight and control functions are responsible for forecasting the economic variables that underlie the economic scenarios that are used in the modeling of expected credit losses. While management uses the best information available to determine this estimate, future adjustments to the allowance may be necessary based on, among other things, changes in the economic environment or variances between actual results and the original assumptions used.
The table below presents gross loans and lending commitments accounted for at amortized cost by portfolio.
As of December
20222021
$ in millionsLoansLending
 Commitments
LoansLending
 Commitments
Wholesale
Corporate$36,822 $137,149 $34,663 $135,968 
Commercial real estate26,222 3,692 24,267 5,229 
Residential real estate18,523 3,089 18,389 3,949 
Securities-based
16,671 508 16,652 454 
Other collateralized
50,473 13,209 35,916 15,137 
Other1,723 944 1,736 442 
Consumer
Installment6,326 1,882 3,672 
Credit cards15,820 62,216 8,212 35,932 
Total$172,580 $222,689 $143,507 $197,120 
In the table above:
Wholesale loans included $2.67 billion as of December 2022 and $2.43 billion as of December 2021 of nonaccrual loans for which the allowance for credit losses was measured on an asset-specific basis. The allowance for credit losses on these loans was $535 million as of December 2022 and $543 million as of December 2021. These loans included $384 million as of December 2022 and $140 million as of December 2021 of loans which did not require a reserve as the loan was deemed to be recoverable.
Credit card lending commitments included $62.22 billion as of December 2022 and $33.97 billion as of December 2021 related to credit card lines issued by the firm to consumers. These credit card lines are cancellable by the firm. The increase in credit card lending commitments from December 2021 to December 2022 reflected approximately $15.0 billion relating to the firm’s acquisition of the General Motors co-branded credit card portfolio. In addition, credit card lending commitments as of December 2021 included a commitment of approximately $2.0 billion to acquire the outstanding credit card loans related to the General Motors co-branded credit card portfolio. See Note 18 for further information about lending commitments.
The increase in installment lending commitments from December 2021 to December 2022 primarily relates to commitments extended in connection with point-of-sale financing through GreenSky. See Note 18 for further information about lending commitments.
The following is a description of the methodology used to calculate the allowance for credit losses:
Wholesale. The allowance for credit losses for wholesale loans and lending commitments that exhibit similar risk characteristics is measured using a modeled approach. These models determine the probability of default and loss given default based on various risk factors, including internal credit ratings, industry default and loss data, expected life, macroeconomic indicators, the borrower’s capacity to meet its financial obligations, the borrower’s country of risk and industry, loan seniority and collateral type. For lending commitments, the methodology also considers the probability of drawdowns or funding. In addition, for loans backed by real estate, risk factors include the loan-to-value ratio, debt service ratio and home price index. The most significant inputs to the forecast model for wholesale loans and lending commitments include unemployment rates, GDP, credit spreads, commercial and industrial delinquency rates, short- and long-term interest rates, and oil prices.
The allowance for loan losses for wholesale loans that do not share similar risk characteristics, such as nonaccrual loans or loans in a TDR, is calculated using the present value of expected future cash flows discounted at the loan’s original effective rate, the observable market price of the loan or the fair value of the collateral.
Wholesale loans are charged off against the allowance for loan losses when deemed to be uncollectible.

Consumer. The allowance for credit losses for consumer loans that exhibit similar risk characteristics is calculated using a modeled approach which classifies consumer loans into pools based on borrower-related and exposure-related characteristics that differentiate a pool’s risk characteristics from other pools. The factors considered in determining a pool are generally consistent with the risk characteristics used for internal credit risk measurement and management and include key metrics, such as FICO credit scores, delinquency status, loan vintage and macroeconomic indicators. The most significant inputs to the forecast model for consumer loans include unemployment rates and delinquency rates. The expected life of revolving credit card loans is determined by modeling expected future draws and the timing and amount of repayments allocated to the funded balance. The firm also recognizes an allowance for credit losses on commitments to acquire loans and commitments extended in connection with point-of-sale financing. However, no allowance for credit losses is recognized on credit card lending commitments as they are cancellable by the firm.
The allowance for credit losses for consumer loans that do not share similar risk characteristics, such as loans in a TDR, is calculated using the present value of expected future cash flows discounted at the loan’s original effective rate.
Installment loans are charged off when they are 120 days past due. Credit card loans are charged off when they are 180 days past due.

Allowance for Credit Losses Rollforward
The table below presents information about the allowance for credit losses.
$ in millionsWholesale Consumer Total
Year Ended December 2022
Allowance for loan losses
Beginning balance$2,135 $1,438 $3,573 
Net (charge-offs)/recoveries(253)(473)(726)
Provision699 2,016 2,715 
Other(19) (19)
Ending balance$2,562 $2,981 $5,543 
Allowance ratio1.7 %13.5 %3.2 %
Net charge-off ratio0.2 %2.8 %0.5 %
Allowance for losses on lending commitments
Beginning balance$589 $187 $776 
Provision124 (124) 
Other(2) (2)
Ending balance$711 $63 $774 
Year Ended December 2021
Allowance for loan losses
Beginning balance$2,584 $1,290 $3,874 
Net (charge-offs)/recoveries(130)(203)(333)
Provision(231)351 120 
Other(88) (88)
Ending balance$2,135 $1,438 $3,573 
Allowance ratio1.6 %12.1 %2.5 %
Net charge-off ratio0.1 %2.3 %0.3 %
Allowance for losses on lending commitments
Beginning balance$557 $– $557 
Provision50 187 237 
Other(18) (18)
Ending balance$589 $187 $776 
In the table above:
For the year ended December 2021, other primarily represented the reduction to the allowance related to loans and lending commitments transferred to held for sale.
The allowance ratio is calculated by dividing the allowance for loan losses by gross loans accounted for at amortized cost.
The net charge-off ratio is calculated by dividing net (charge-offs)/recoveries by average gross loans accounted for at amortized cost.

Forecast Model Inputs as of December 2022
When modeling expected credit losses, the firm employs a weighted, multi-scenario forecast, which includes baseline, adverse and favorable economic scenarios. As of December 2022, this multi-scenario forecast was weighted towards the baseline and adverse economic scenarios.
The table below presents the forecasted U.S. unemployment and U.S. GDP growth rates used in the baseline economic scenario of the forecast model.
As of December 2022
U.S. unemployment rate 
Forecast for the quarter ended: 
June 20234.2 %
December 20234.6 %
June 20244.6 %
Growth in U.S. GDP 
Forecast for the year: 
20230.4 %
20241.3 %
20251.7 %
The adverse economic scenario of the forecast model reflects a global recession in 2023 and a more aggressive tightening of monetary policy by central banks, resulting in an economic contraction and rising unemployment rates. In this scenario, the U.S. unemployment rate peaks at approximately 7.4% during the first quarter of 2024 and the maximum decline in the quarterly U.S. GDP relative to the fourth quarter of 2022 is approximately 2.7%, which occurs during the fourth quarter of 2023.
In the table above:
U.S. unemployment rate represents the rate forecasted as of the respective quarter-end.
Growth in U.S. GDP represents the year-over-year growth rate forecasted for the respective years.
While the U.S. unemployment and U.S. GDP growth rates are significant inputs to the forecast model, the model contemplates a variety of other inputs across a range of scenarios to provide a forecast of future economic conditions. Given the complex nature of the forecasting process, no single economic variable can be viewed in isolation and independently of other inputs.
Allowance for Credit Losses Commentary
Year Ended December 2022. The allowance for credit losses increased by $1.97 billion during 2022, reflecting growth in the firm's consumer lending portfolios (principally in credit cards) and higher modeled expected losses due to broad macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns. In addition, the allowance for credit losses for wholesale loans was impacted by asset-specific provisions and ratings downgrades primarily related to borrowers in the technology, media & telecommunications, real estate, and consumer & retail industries.
Net (charge-offs)/recoveries for 2022 for wholesale loans were primarily related to corporate loans and net (charge-offs)/recoveries for consumer loans were primarily related to credit cards.
Year Ended December 2021. The allowance for credit losses decreased by $82 million during 2021, reflecting reserve reduction driven by improved broader economic environment, partially offset by growth in the firm’s lending portfolios, primarily in the consumer portfolio related to credit cards, including a provision for credit losses of approximately $185 million related to the acquisition of the General Motors co-branded credit card portfolio.
Net (charge-offs)/recoveries for 2021 for wholesale loans were primarily related to corporate loans and net (charge-offs)/recoveries for consumer loans were primarily related to credit cards.
Measurement of Credit Losses on Financial Instruments (ASC 326)
The firm adopted ASU No. 2016-13, "Financial Instruments - Credit Losses (Topic 326) - Measurement of Credit Losses on Financial Instruments" as of January 1, 2020. As a result of adopting this ASU, the firm's allowance for credit losses on financial assets and commitments that are accounted for at amortized cost reflects management's estimate of credit losses over the remaining life of such assets. The cumulative effect of adopting this ASU as of January 1, 2020, was a decrease to retained earnings of $638 million (net of tax).
Estimated Fair Value
The table below presents the estimated fair value of loans that are not accounted for at fair value and in what level of the fair value hierarchy they would have been classified if they had been included in the firm’s fair value hierarchy.
 Carrying ValueEstimated Fair Value
$ in millionsLevel 2Level 3Total
As of December 2022    
Amortized cost$167,037 $85,921 $83,121 $169,042 
Held for sale$4,594 $2,592 $2,014 $4,606 
As of December 2021    
Amortized cost$139,934 $87,676 $54,127 $141,803 
Held for sale$7,859 $5,970 $1,917 $7,887 
See Note 4 for an overview of the firm’s fair value measurement policies, valuation techniques and significant inputs used to determine the fair value of loans, and Note 5 for information about loans within the fair value hierarchy.