Note 12 – Loss Reserves

We establish reserves to recognize the estimated liability for losses and loss adjustment expenses ("LAE") related to defaults on insured mortgage loans. Loss reserves are established by estimating the number of loans in our inventory of delinquent loans that will result in a claim payment, which is referred to as the claim rate, and further estimating the amount of the claim payment, which is referred to as claim severity.

Estimation of losses is inherently judgmental. The conditions that affect the claim rate and claim severity include the current and future state of the domestic economy, including unemployment, and the current and future strength of local housing markets. Current conditions in the housing and mortgage industries make these assumptions more volatile than they would otherwise be. The actual amount of the claim payments may be substantially different than our loss reserve estimates. Our estimates could be adversely affected by several factors, including a further deterioration of regional or national economic conditions, including unemployment, leading to a reduction in borrowers' income and thus their ability to make mortgage payments, and a further drop in housing values that could result in, among other things, greater losses on loans that have pool insurance, and may affect borrower willingness to continue to make mortgage payments when the value of the home is below the mortgage balance and mitigation from rescissions being materially less than assumed. Changes to our estimates could result in a material impact to our results of operations and capital position, even in a stable economic environment.

The following table provides a reconciliation of beginning and ending loss reserves for the nine months ended September 30, 2012 and 2011:

	Nine Months Ended
	September 30,
	2012			2011
	(In thousands)

Reserve at beginning of year	$	4,557,512		$	5,884,171
Less reinsurance recoverable		154,607			275,290
Net reserve at beginning of year (1)		4,402,905			5,608,881

Losses incurred:
Losses and LAE incurred in respect of default notices related to:
Current year		1,091,326			1,328,906
Prior years (2)		287,291			(96,269	)
Subtotal (3)		1,378,617			1,232,637

Losses paid:
Losses and LAE paid in respect of default notices related to:
Current year		54,813			37,111
Prior years		1,840,992			2,218,490
Reinsurance terminations (4)		(425	)		(38,769	)
Subtotal (5)		1,895,380			2,216,832

Net reserve at end of period (6)		3,886,142			4,624,686
Plus reinsurance recoverables		117,859			166,874

Reserve at end of period	$	4,004,001		$	4,791,560

(1)	At December 31, 2011 and 2010, the estimated reduction in loss reserves related to rescissions approximated $0.7 billion and $1.3 billion, respectively.

(2)	A negative number for prior year losses incurred indicates a redundancy of prior year loss reserves, and a positive number for prior year losses incurred indicates a deficiency of prior year loss reserves.

(3)	Rescissions did not have a significant impact on incurred losses in the nine months ended September 30, 2012 or 2011.

(4)

In a termination, the reinsurance agreement is cancelled, with no future premium ceded and funds for any incurred but unpaid losses transferred to us. The transferred funds result in an increase in our investment portfolio (including cash and cash equivalents) and a decrease in net losses paid (reduction to losses incurred). In addition, there is an offsetting decrease in the reinsurance recoverable (increase in losses incurred), and thus there is no net impact to losses incurred.

(5)	Rescissions mitigated our paid losses by an estimated $0.2 billion in the nine months ended September 30, 2012 and by an estimated $0.5 billion in the nine months ended September 30, 2011, which excludes amounts that may have been applied to a deductible.

(6)	At September 30, 2012 and 2011, the estimated reduction in loss reserves related to rescissions approximated $0.5 billion and $0.8 billion, respectively.

The "Losses incurred" section of the table above shows losses incurred on default notices received in the current year and in prior years. The amount of losses incurred relating to default notices received in the current year represents the estimated amount to be ultimately paid on such default notices. The amount of losses incurred relating to default notices received in prior years represents the actual claim rate and severity associated with those default notices resolved in the current year differing from the estimated liability at the prior year-end, as well as a re-estimation of amounts to be ultimately paid on defaults remaining in inventory from the end of the prior year. This re-estimation of the estimated claim rate and estimated severity is the result of our review of current trends in default inventory, such as percentages of defaults that have resulted in a claim, the amount of the claims, changes in the relative level of defaults by geography and changes in average loan exposure.

In the first nine months of 2012, net losses incurred were $1,379 million, comprised of $1,091 million of current year loss development and $287 million of unfavorable prior years' loss development. In the first nine months of 2011, net losses incurred were $1,233 million, comprised of $1,329 million of current year loss development, offset by $96 million of favorable prior years' loss development.

Current year losses incurred decreased in the first nine months of 2012 compared to the same period in 2011 primarily due to a decrease in the number of new default notices received, net of cures, compared to the prior period.

The development of the reserves in the first nine months of 2012 and 2011 is reflected in the "Prior years" line in the table above. The $287 million increase in losses incurred in the first nine months of 2012 that was related to defaults that occurred in prior years resulted primarily from an increase in the estimated claim rate on primary defaults (approximately $300 million). The increase in the claim rate was based on a re-estimation of amounts to be ultimately paid on defaults remaining in inventory from the end of the prior year. Our experience on defaults that are 12 months or more delinquent during the first nine months of 2012 has increased our estimate of the claim rate. The offsetting decrease in losses incurred that was related to defaults that occurred in prior years (approximately $13 million) related to pool reserves, LAE reserves and reinsurance.

The $96 million decrease in losses incurred in the first nine months of 2011 that was related to defaults that occurred in prior periods resulted primarily from a decrease in the estimated severity on primary defaults (approximately $105 million) as well as a decrease in estimated severity on pool defaults (approximately $50 million). The decrease in losses incurred related to prior years was also related to a decrease in estimated loss adjustment expenses (approximately $121 million). These decreases were offset by an increase in the estimated claim rate on primary defaults (approximately $180 million). The decrease in the severity was based on the resolution of approximately 49% of the prior year default inventory. The decrease in estimated loss adjustment expense was based on recent historical trends in the costs associated with resolving a claim. The increase in the claim rate was also based on the resolution of the prior year default inventory, as well as a re-estimation of amounts to be ultimately paid on defaults remaining in inventory from the end of the prior year and estimated incurred but not reported items from the end of the prior year.

The "Losses paid" section of the table above shows the breakdown between claims paid on default notices received in the current year and default notices received in prior years. It has historically taken, prior to the last few years, on average, approximately twelve months for a default which is not cured to develop into a paid claim, therefore, most losses paid relate to default notices received in prior years. Due to a combination of reasons that have slowed the rate at which claims are received and paid, including foreclosure moratoriums and suspensions, servicing delays, court delays, loan modifications, our fraud investigations and our claim rescissions and denials for misrepresentation, it is difficult to estimate how long it may take for current and future defaults that do not cure to develop into paid claims. Beginning in 2011, we experienced an increase in claims paid on default notices related to the current year due to fewer claim investigations and an increase in short sales. The "Losses paid" section of the table also includes a decrease in losses paid related to terminated reinsurance agreements as noted in footnote (4) of the table above.

The liability associated with our estimate of premiums to be refunded on expected claim payments is accrued for separately at September 30, 2012 and December 31, 2011 and approximated $118 million and $114 million, respectively. Separate components of this liability are included in "Other liabilities" and "Premium deficiency reserve" on our consolidated balance sheet. Changes in the liability affect premiums written and earned and change in premium deficiency reserve.

The decrease in the primary default inventory experienced during 2012 and 2011 was generally across all markets and all book years. However, the percentage of loans in the inventory that have been in default for 12 or more consecutive months has increased, as shown in the table below. Historically as a default ages it becomes more likely to result in a claim. The percentage of loans that have been in default for 12 or more consecutive months has been affected by our suspended rescissions discussed below.

Aging of the Primary Default Inventory

	September 30,				December 31,				September 30,
	2012				2011				2011

Consecutive months in default
3 months or less		25,593	17	%		31,456	18	%		33,167	18	%
4 - 11 months		35,029	24	%		46,352	26	%		45,110	25	%
12 months or more		88,263	59	%		97,831	56	%		102,617	57	%

Total primary default inventory		148,885	100	%		175,639	100	%		180,894	100	%

Primary claims received inventory included in ending default inventory (1)		12,508	8	%		12,610	7	%		13,799	8	%

(1) As discussed in Note 5 – "Litigation and Contingencies" we are in mediation in an effort to resolve our dispute with Countrywide. In connection with that mediation, we have voluntarily suspended rescissions of coverage related to loans that we believe could be included in a potential resolution. As of September 30, 2012, coverage on approximately 1,700 loans, representing total potential claim payments of approximately $125 million, that we had determined was rescindable was affected by our decision to suspend such rescissions. Substantially all of these potential rescissions relate to claims received beginning in the first quarter of 2011 or later and, had we not suspended rescissions, most of these rescissions would have been processed in the first nine months of 2012. In addition, as of September 30, 2012, approximately 350 rescissions, representing total potential claim payments of approximately $23 million, were affected by our decision to suspend rescissions for customers other than Countrywide.

The length of time a loan is in the default inventory can differ from the number of payments that the borrower has not made or is considered delinquent. These differences typically result from a borrower making monthly payments that do not result in the loan becoming fully current. The number of payments that a borrower is delinquent is shown in the table below.

Number of Payments Delinquent

	September 30,				December 31,				September 30,
	2012				2011				2011


3 payments or less		35,130	24	%		42,804	24	%		43,312	24	%
4 - 11 payments		36,359	24	%		47,864	27	%		47,929	26	%
12 payments or more		77,396	52	%		84,971	49	%		89,653	50	%

Total primary default inventory		148,885	100	%		175,639	100	%		180,894	100	%

Before paying a claim, we can review the loan file to determine whether we are required, under the applicable insurance policy, to pay the claim or whether we are entitled to reduce the amount of the claim. For example, all of our insurance policies provide that we can reduce or deny a claim if the servicer did not comply with its obligation to mitigate our loss by performing reasonable loss mitigation efforts or diligently pursuing a foreclosure or bankruptcy relief in a timely manner. We also do not cover losses resulting from property damage that has not been repaired.

In addition, subject to rescission caps in certain of our Wall Street bulk transactions, all of our insurance policies allow us to rescind coverage under certain circumstances. Because we can review the loan origination documents and information as part of our normal processing when a claim is submitted to us, rescissions occur on a loan by loan basis most often after we have received a claim. Prior to 2008, rescissions of coverage on loans for which claims have been submitted to us were not a material portion of our claims resolved during a year. However, beginning in 2008, our rescission of coverage on loans has materially mitigated our paid losses. In each of 2009 and 2010, rescissions mitigated our paid losses by approximately $1.2 billion; in 2011, rescissions mitigated our paid losses by approximately $0.6 billion; and in the first nine months of 2012, rescissions mitigated our paid losses by approximately $0.2 billion (in each case, the figure includes amounts that would have either resulted in a claim payment or been charged to a deductible under a bulk or pool policy, and may have been charged to a captive reinsurer). In recent quarters, 8% to 13% of claims received in a quarter have been resolved by rescissions, down from the peak of approximately 28% in the first half of 2009.

As discussed in Note 5 – "Litigation and Contingencies" we are in mediation in an effort to resolve our dispute with Countrywide. In connection with that mediation, we have voluntarily suspended rescissions of coverage related to loans that we believe could be included in a potential resolution. As of September 30, 2012, coverage on approximately 1,700 loans, representing total potential claim payments of approximately $125 million, that we had determined was rescindable was affected by our decision to suspend such rescissions. Substantially all of these potential rescissions relate to claims received beginning in the first quarter of 2011 or later and, had we not suspended rescissions, most of these rescissions would have been processed in the first nine months of 2012. In addition, as of September 30, 2012, approximately 350 rescissions, representing total potential claim payments of approximately $23 million, were affected by our decision to suspend rescissions for customers other than Countrywide. Although the loans with suspended rescissions are included in our delinquency inventory, for purposes of determining our reserve amounts, it is assumed that coverage on these loans will be rescinded. The decision to suspend these potential rescissions does not represent the only reason for the recent decline in the percentage of claims that have been resolved through rescissions and we continue to expect that our rescissions will continue to decline.

Our loss reserving methodology incorporates the effect that rescission activity is expected to have on the losses we will pay on our delinquent inventory. Historically, the number of rescissions that we have reversed has been immaterial. We do not utilize an explicit rescission rate in our reserving methodology, but rather our reserving methodology incorporates the effects rescission activity has had on our historical claim rate and claim severities. A variance between ultimate actual rescission rates and these estimates could materially affect our losses incurred. Our estimation process does not include a direct correlation between claim rates and severities to projected rescission activity or other economic conditions such as changes in unemployment rates, interest rates or housing values. Our experience is that analysis of that nature would not produce reliable results, as the change in one condition cannot be isolated to determine its sole effect on our ultimate paid losses as our ultimate paid losses are also influenced at the same time by other economic conditions. The estimation of the impact of rescissions on incurred losses, as shown in the table below, must be considered together with the various other factors impacting incurred losses and not in isolation. At September 30, 2012, we had 148,885 loans in our primary delinquency inventory; a significant portion of these loans will cure their delinquency or be rescinded and will not involve paid claims.

The table below represents our estimate of the impact rescissions have had on reducing our loss reserves, paid losses and losses incurred.

	Three Months Ended				Nine Months Ended
	September 30,				September 30,
	2012		2011		2012		2011
	(In billions)

Estimated rescission reduction - beginning reserve	$	0.6	$	0.9	$	0.7	$	1.3

Estimated rescission reduction - losses incurred		-		-		-		-

Rescission reduction - paid claims		0.1		0.1		0.2		0.5
Amounts that may have been applied to a deductible		-		-		-		-
Net rescission reduction - paid claims		0.1		0.1		0.2		0.5

Estimated rescission reduction - ending reserve (1)	$	0.5	$	0.8	$	0.5	$	0.8

(1) As noted in Note 5 – "Litigation and Contingencies" we are in mediation in an effort to resolve our dispute with Countrywide. In connection with that mediation, we have voluntarily suspended rescissions of coverage related to loans that we believe could be included in a potential resolution. As of September 30, 2012, coverage on approximately 1,700 loans, representing total potential claim payments of approximately $125 million, that we had determined was rescindable was affected by our decision to suspend such rescissions. Substantially all of these potential rescissions relate to claims received beginning in the first quarter of 2011 or later and, had we not suspended rescissions, most of these rescissions would have been processed in the first nine months of 2012. In addition, as of September 30, 2012, approximately 350 rescissions, representing total potential claim payments of approximately $23 million, were affected by our decision to suspend rescissions for customers other than Countrywide. Although the loans with suspended rescissions are included in our delinquency inventory, for purposes of determining our reserve amounts, it is assumed that coverage on these loans will be rescinded, and thus are included in the estimated $0.5 million estimated rescission reduction to ending reserves at September 30, 2012. The decision to suspend these potential rescissions does not represent the only reason for the recent decline in the percentage of claims that have been resolved through rescissions and we continue to expect that our rescissions will continue to decline.

At September 30, 2012, our loss reserves continued to be significantly impacted by expected rescission activity. We expect that the reduction of our loss reserves due to rescissions will continue to decline because our recent experience indicates new notices in our default inventory have a lower likelihood of being rescinded than those already in the inventory.

The liability associated with our estimate of premiums to be refunded on expected future rescissions is accrued for separately. At September 30, 2012 and December 31, 2011 the estimate of this liability totaled $49 million and $58 million, respectively. Separate components of this liability are included in "Other liabilities" and "Premium deficiency reserve" on our consolidated balance sheet. Changes in the liability affect premiums written and earned and change in premium deficiency reserve.

If the insured disputes our right to rescind coverage, the outcome of the dispute ultimately would be determined by legal proceedings. Under our policies, legal proceedings disputing our right to rescind coverage may be brought up to three years after the lender has obtained title to the property (typically through a foreclosure) or the property was sold in a sale that we approved, whichever is applicable, although in a few jurisdictions there is a longer time to bring such an action. For the majority of our rescissions since the beginning of 2009 that are not subject to a settlement agreement, this period in which a dispute may be brought has not ended. We consider a rescission resolved for financial reporting purposes even though legal proceedings have been initiated and are ongoing. Although it is reasonably possible that, when the proceedings are completed, there will be a determination that we were not entitled to rescind in all cases, we are unable to make a reasonable estimate or range of estimates of the potential liability. Under ASC 450-20, an estimated loss from such proceedings is accrued for only if we determine that the loss is probable and can be reasonably estimated. Therefore, when establishing our loss reserves, we do not include additional loss reserves that would reflect an adverse outcome from ongoing legal proceedings, including those with Countrywide. For more information about these legal proceedings, see Note 5 – "Litigation and Contingencies."

In addition to the proceedings involving Countrywide, we are involved in legal proceedings with respect to rescissions that we do not consider to be collectively material in amount. Although it is reasonably possible that, when these discussions or proceedings are completed, there will be a conclusion or determination that we were not entitled to rescind in all cases, we are unable to make a reasonable estimate or range of estimates of the potential liability.

In 2010, we entered into a settlement agreement with a lender-customer regarding our rescission practices. In April 2011, Freddie Mac advised its servicers that they must obtain its prior approval for rescission settlements and Fannie Mae advised its servicers that they are prohibited from entering into such settlements. In addition, in April 2011, Fannie Mae notified us that we must obtain its prior approval to enter into certain settlements. We continue to discuss with other lender-customers their objections to material rescissions and have reached settlement terms with several of our significant lender-customers. In connection with some of these settlement discussions, we have suspended rescissions related to loans that we believe could be included in potential settlements. As of September 30, 2012, approximately 350 rescissions, representing total potential claim payments of approximately $23 million, were affected by our decision to suspend rescissions for customers other than Countrywide. Any definitive agreement with these customers would be subject to GSE approval under announcements they made last year. Both GSEs approved our proposed settlement agreement with one customer. We considered the terms of the proposed agreement when establishing our loss reserves at September 30, 2012. This agreement did not have a significant impact on our established loss reserves. Neither GSE has approved our other settlement agreements, which are structured in a different manner than the one that was approved by the GSEs, and the terms of these other agreements were not considered when establishing our loss reserves at September 30, 2012. We have also reached settlement agreements that do not require GSE approval, but they have not been material in the aggregate.

A rollforward of our primary default inventory for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2012 and 2011 appears in the table below. The information concerning new notices and cures is compiled from monthly reports received from loan servicers. The level of new notice and cure activity reported in a particular month can be influenced by, among other things, the date on which a servicer generates its report, the number of business days in a month and by transfers of servicing between loan servicers.

	Three Months Ended						Nine Months Ended
	September 30,						September 30,
	2012			2011			2012			2011


Default inventory at beginning of period		153,990			184,452			175,639			214,724
Plus: New Notices		34,432			44,342			101,454			127,509
Less: Cures		(27,384	)		(34,335	)		(90,896	)		(115,806	)
Less: Paids (including those charged to a deductible or captive)		(11,344	)		(12,033	)		(34,991	)		(39,052	)
Less: Rescissions and denials		(809	)		(1,532	)		(2,321	)		(6,481	)
Default inventory at end of period		148,885			180,894			148,885			180,894

Pool insurance notice inventory decreased from 32,971 at December 31, 2011 to 9,337 at September 30, 2012. During the third quarter of 2012, approximately 15,600 pool notices were removed from the pool notice inventory due to the exhaustion of the aggregate loss on a pool policy we have with Freddie Mac. See Note 5 – "Litigation and Contingencies" for a discussion of our dispute with Freddie Mac regarding this pool policy. The pool insurance notice inventory was 33,792 at September 30, 2011.