Loss Reserves

3 Months Ended

Mar. 31, 2024

We establish case reserves and LAE reserves on delinquent loans that were reported to us as two or more payments past due and have not become current or resulted in a claim payment. Such loans are referred to as being in our delinquency inventory. Case reserves are established by estimating the number of loans in our delinquency inventory that will result in a claim payment, which is referred to as the claim rate, and further estimating the amount of the claim payment, which is referred to as claim severity.

IBNR reserves are established for estimated losses from delinquencies we estimate have occurred prior to the close of an accounting period but have not yet been reported to us. IBNR reserves are also established using estimated claim rates and claim severities.

Estimation of losses is inherently judgmental. Even in a stable environment, changes to our estimates could result in a material impact to our consolidated results of operations and financial position. The conditions that affect the claim rate and claim severity include the current and future state of the domestic economy, including unemployment and the current and future strength of local housing markets; exposure on insured loans; the amount of time between delinquency and claim filing (all else being equal, the longer the period between delinquency and claim filing, the greater the severity); and curtailments and rescissions. The actual amount of the claim payments may be substantially different than our loss reserve estimates. Our estimates could be adversely affected by several factors, including a deterioration of regional or national economic conditions, including unemployment, leading to a reduction in borrowers’ income and thus their ability to make mortgage payments, the impact of past and future government initiatives and actions taken by the GSEs (including mortgage forbearance programs and foreclosure moratoriums), and a drop in housing values which may affect borrower willingness to continue to make mortgage payments when the value of the home is below the mortgage balance. Loss reserves in future periods will also be dependent on the number of loans reported to us as delinquent.

Changes to our estimates could result in a material impact to our consolidated results of operations and financial position, even in a stable economic environment. Given the uncertainty of the macroeconomic environment, including the effectiveness of loss mitigation efforts, changes in home prices, and changes in unemployment, our loss reserve estimates may continue to be impacted.

In considering the potential sensitivity of the factors underlying our estimate of loss reserves, it is possible that even a relatively small change in our estimated claim rate or claim severity could have a material impact on loss reserves and, correspondingly, on our consolidated results of operations even in a stable economic environment. For example, as of March 31, 2024, assuming all other factors remain constant, a $1,000 increase/decrease in the average severity reserve factor would change the loss reserve amount by approximately +/- $8 million. A one percentage point increase/decrease in the average claim rate reserve factor would change the loss reserve amount by approximately +/- $16 million.

The “Losses incurred” section of table 11.1 below shows losses incurred on delinquencies that occurred in the current year and in prior years. The amount of losses incurred relating to delinquencies that occurred in the current year represents the estimated amount to be ultimately paid on such delinquencies. The amount of losses incurred relating to delinquencies that occurred in prior years represents the difference between the actual claim rate and claim severity associated with those delinquencies resolved in the current year compared to the estimated claim rate and claim severity at the prior year-end, as well as a re-estimation of amounts to be ultimately paid on delinquencies continuing from the end of the prior year. This re-estimation of the claim rate and claim severity is the result of our review of current trends in the delinquency inventory, such as percentages of delinquencies that have resulted in a claim, the amount of the claims relative to the average loan exposure, changes in the relative level of delinquencies by geography and changes in average loan exposure.

Losses incurred on delinquencies that occurred in the current year increased for the three months ended March 31, 2024, compared to the same period last year. The increase is primarily due to an increase in estimated severity on current year delinquencies and an increase in new delinquencies reported.

For the three months ended March 31, 2024 and March 31, 2023 we experienced favorable loss development of $48.9 million and $40.8 million, respectively, on previously received delinquencies. The favorable development for both periods primarily resulted from a decrease in the expected claim rate on previously received delinquencies. Home price appreciation experienced in recent years has allowed some borrowers to cure their delinquencies through the sale of their property.

The “Losses paid” section of table 11.1 below shows the amount of losses paid on delinquencies that occurred in the current year and losses paid on delinquencies that occurred in prior years.

Table 11.1 provides a reconciliation of beginning and ending loss reserves as of and for the three months ended March 31, 2024 and 2023.


Development of reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses
Table	11.1
		Three Months Ended March 31,
(In thousands)		2024		2023
Reserve at beginning of period		$	505,379	$	557,988
Less reinsurance recoverable		33,302		28,240
Net reserve at beginning of period		472,077		529,748

Losses incurred:
Losses and LAE incurred in respect of delinquency notices received in:
Current year		53,436		47,212
Prior years (1)		(48,881)		(40,766)
Total losses incurred		4,555		6,446

Losses paid:
Losses and LAE paid in respect of delinquency notices received in:
Current year		—		—
Prior years		11,385		10,440

Total losses paid		11,385		10,440
Net reserve at end of period		465,247		525,754
Plus reinsurance recoverable		39,200		32,761
Reserve at end of period		$	504,447	$	558,515

(1)A positive number for prior year loss reserve development indicates a deficiency of prior year reserves. A negative number for prior year loss reserve development indicates a redundancy of prior year loss reserves. See the following table for more information about prior year loss reserve development.

The prior year loss reserve development for the three months ended March 31, 2024 and 2023 is shown in table 11.2 below.


Reserve development on previously received delinquencies
Table	11.2
		Three Months Ended March 31,
(In thousands)		2024		2023
Increase (decrease) in estimated claim rate on primary defaults		$	(41,079)	$	(43,431)

Change in estimates related to severity on primary defaults, pool reserves, LAE reserves, reinsurance, and other		(7,802)		2,665
Total prior year loss development (1)		$	(48,881)	$	(40,766)

(1)A positive number for prior year loss reserve development indicates a deficiency of prior year loss reserves. A negative number for prior year loss reserve development indicates a redundancy of prior year loss reserves.

Premium refunds

Our estimate of premiums to be refunded on expected claim payments is accrued for separately in “Other Liabilities” on our consolidated balance sheets were $18.5 million and $21.1 million at March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.