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Investments
3 Months Ended
Mar. 31, 2016
Investments, Debt and Equity Securities [Abstract]  
Investments
8. INVESTMENTS
Ambac’s invested assets are primarily comprised of fixed income securities classified as available-for-sale and equity interests in pooled investment funds. Such equity interests in the form of common stock or in-substance common stock are classified as trading securities and are reported within Other investments on the Consolidated Balance Sheets. Other investments also includes Ambac's equity interest in an unconsolidated trust created in connection with its sale of Segregated Account junior surplus notes on August 28, 2014.
The amortized cost and estimated fair value of available-for-sale investments, excluding VIE investments, at March 31, 2016 and December 31, 2015 were as follows:
 
 
Amortized
Cost
 
Gross
Unrealized
Gains
 
Gross
Unrealized
Losses
 
Estimated
Fair Value
 
Non-credit
other-than
temporary
Impairments 
(1)
March 31, 2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fixed income securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Municipal obligations
 
$
380,190

 
$
10,609

 
$
4,969

 
$
385,830

 
$

Corporate obligations
 
1,626,276

 
27,929

 
7,901

 
1,646,304

 

Foreign obligations
 
92,596

 
4,106

 
61

 
96,641

 

U.S. government obligations
 
32,185

 
1,357

 
93

 
33,449

 

U.S. agency obligations
 
4,195

 

 
9

 
4,186

 

Residential mortgage-backed securities
 
2,229,764

 
103,842

 
59,551

 
2,274,055

 
43,928

Collateralized debt obligations
 
100,949

 
59

 
1,667

 
99,341

 

Other asset-backed securities
 
1,073,604

 
39,431

 
2,580

 
1,110,455

 

 
 
5,539,759

 
187,333

 
76,831

 
5,650,261

 
43,928

Short-term
 
436,759

 
1

 

 
436,760

 

 
 
5,976,518

 
187,334

 
76,831

 
6,087,021

 
43,928

Fixed income securities pledged as collateral:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. government obligations
 
64,667

 
251

 

 
64,918

 

Total collateralized investments
 
64,667

 
251

 

 
64,918

 

Total available-for-sale investments
 
$
6,041,185

 
$
187,585

 
$
76,831

 
$
6,151,939

 
$
43,928

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
December 31, 2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fixed income securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Municipal obligations
 
$
424,048

 
$
4,910

 
$
8,188

 
$
420,770

 
$

Corporate obligations
 
1,610,912

 
7,089

 
24,332

 
1,593,669

 

Foreign obligations
 
96,638

 
1,491

 
1,823

 
96,306

 

U.S. government obligations
 
26,086

 
789

 
188

 
26,687

 

U.S. agency obligations
 
4,239

 

 
27

 
4,212

 

Residential mortgage-backed securities
 
1,942,285

 
99,670

 
64,617

 
1,977,338

 
41,673

Collateralized debt obligations
 
85,706

 
42

 
1,481

 
84,267

 

Other asset-backed securities
 
802,842

 
41,177

 
3,492

 
840,527

 

 
 
4,992,756

 
155,168

 
104,148

 
5,043,776

 
41,673

Short-term
 
225,789

 
1

 
1

 
225,789

 

 
 
5,218,545

 
155,169

 
104,149

 
5,269,565

 
41,673

Fixed income securities pledged as collateral:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. government obligations
 
64,612

 

 
57

 
64,555

 

Total collateralized investments
 
64,612

 

 
57

 
64,555

 

Total available-for-sale investments
 
$
5,283,157

 
$
155,169

 
$
104,206

 
$
5,334,120

 
$
41,673

(1)
Represents the amount of non-credit other-than-temporary impairment losses remaining in accumulated other comprehensive loss on securities that also had a credit impairment. These losses are included in gross unrealized losses as of March 31, 2016 and December 31, 2015.
The amortized cost and estimated fair value of available-for-sale investments, excluding VIE investments, at March 31, 2016, by contractual maturity, were as follows:
 
 
Amortized
Cost
 
Estimated
Fair Value
Due in one year or less
 
$
536,088

 
$
536,300

Due after one year through five years
 
1,061,175

 
1,070,684

Due after five years through ten years
 
864,905

 
881,715

Due after ten years
 
174,700

 
179,389

 
 
2,636,868

 
2,668,088

Residential mortgage-backed securities
 
2,229,764

 
2,274,055

Collateralized debt obligations
 
100,949

 
99,341

Other asset-backed securities
 
1,073,604

 
1,110,455

Total
 
$
6,041,185

 
$
6,151,939


Expected maturities will differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay certain obligations with or without call or prepayment penalties.
Unrealized Losses:
The following table shows gross unrealized losses and fair values of Ambac’s available-for-sale investments, aggregated by investment category and length of time that the individual securities have been in a continuous unrealized loss position, at March 31, 2016 and December 31, 2015:
 
 
Less Than 12 Months
 
12 Months or More
 
Total
 
 
Fair Value
 
Gross
Unrealized
Loss
 
Fair Value
 
Gross
Unrealized
Loss
 
Fair Value
 
Gross
Unrealized
Loss
March 31, 2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fixed income securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Municipal obligations
 
$
58,996

 
$
1,587

 
$
76,741

 
$
3,382

 
$
135,737

 
$
4,969

Corporate obligations
 
266,795

 
5,198

 
137,811

 
2,703

 
404,606

 
7,901

Foreign obligations
 
1,838

 
17

 
1,556

 
44

 
3,394

 
61

U.S. government obligations
 
7,903

 
73

 
8,436

 
20

 
16,339

 
93

U.S. agency obligations
 

 

 
4,186

 
9

 
4,186

 
9

Residential mortgage-backed securities
 
624,811

 
35,383

 
304,949

 
24,168

 
929,760

 
59,551

Collateralized debt obligations
 
67,563

 
1,550

 
19,767

 
117

 
87,330

 
1,667

Other asset-backed securities
 
409,620

 
2,540

 
15,345

 
40

 
424,965

 
2,580

 
 
1,437,526

 
46,348

 
568,791

 
30,483

 
2,006,317

 
76,831

Short-term
 
1,983

 

 

 

 
1,983

 

 
 
1,439,509

 
46,348

 
568,791

 
30,483

 
2,008,300

 
76,831

Fixed income securities, pledged as collateral:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U. S. government obligations
 

 

 

 

 

 

Total collateralized investments
 

 

 

 

 

 

Total temporarily impaired securities
 
$
1,439,509

 
$
46,348

 
$
568,791

 
$
30,483

 
$
2,008,300

 
$
76,831

 
 
Less Than 12 Months
 
12 Months or More
 
Total
 
 
Fair Value
 
Gross
Unrealized
Loss
 
Fair Value
 
Gross
Unrealized
Loss
 
Fair Value
 
Gross
Unrealized
Loss
December 31, 2015:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fixed income securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Municipal obligations
 
$
117,008

 
$
2,070

 
$
114,708

 
$
6,118

 
$
231,716

 
$
8,188

Corporate obligations
 
938,916

 
21,331

 
92,581

 
3,001

 
1,031,497

 
24,332

Foreign obligations
 
34,904

 
1,018

 
8,584

 
805

 
43,488

 
1,823

U.S. government obligations
 
2,938

 
18

 
10,658

 
170

 
13,596

 
188

U.S. agency obligations
 

 

 
4,212

 
27

 
4,212

 
27

Residential mortgage-backed securities
 
584,699

 
53,367

 
213,303

 
11,250

 
798,002

 
64,617

Collateralized debt obligations
 
77,538

 
1,481

 

 

 
77,538

 
1,481

Other asset-backed securities
 
450,690

 
3,456

 
19,274

 
36

 
469,964

 
3,492

 
 
2,206,693

 
82,741

 
463,320

 
21,407

 
2,670,013

 
104,148

Short-term
 
9,982

 
1

 

 

 
9,982

 
1

 
 
2,216,675

 
82,742

 
463,320

 
21,407

 
2,679,995

 
104,149

Fixed income securities, pledged as collateral:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U. S. government obligations
 
64,555

 
57

 

 

 
64,555

 
57

Total collateralized investments
 
64,555

 
57

 

 

 
64,555

 
57

Total temporarily impaired securities
 
$
2,281,230

 
$
82,799

 
$
463,320

 
$
21,407

 
$
2,744,550

 
$
104,206

Management has determined that the unrealized losses reflected in the tables above are temporary in nature as of March 31, 2016 and December 31, 2015 based upon (i) no unexpected principal and interest payment defaults on these securities; (ii) analysis of the creditworthiness of the issuer and financial guarantor, as applicable, and analysis of projected defaults on the underlying collateral; (iii) management has no intent to sell these investments in debt securities; and (iv) it is not more likely than not that Ambac will be required to sell these debt securities before the anticipated recovery of its amortized cost basis. The assessment under (iv) is based on a comparison of future available liquidity from the investment portfolio against the projected net cash outflow from operating activities and debt service. For purposes of this assessment, available liquidity from the investment portfolio is comprised of the fair value of securities for which management has asserted its intent to sell, the fair value of other securities that are available for sale and in an unrealized gain position, trading securities plus the scheduled maturities and interest payments from the remaining securities in the portfolio. To the extent that securities that management intends to sell are in an unrealized loss position, they would have already been considered other-than-temporarily impaired with the amortized cost written down to fair value. Because the above-described assessment indicates that future available liquidity exceeds projected net cash outflow, it is not more likely than not that we would be required to sell securities in an unrealized loss position before the recovery of their amortized cost basis. In the liquidity assessment described above, principal payments on securities pledged as collateral are not considered to be available for other liquidity needs until the collateralized positions are projected to be settled. Projected interest receipts on securities pledged as collateral generally belong to Ambac and are considered to be sources of available liquidity from the investment portfolio.
As of March 31, 2016, for securities that have indications of possible other-than-temporary impairment but which management does not intend to sell and will not more likely than not be required to sell, management compared the present value of cash flows expected to be collected to the amortized cost basis of the securities to assess whether the amortized cost will be recovered. Cash flows were discounted at the effective interest rate implicit in the security at the date of acquisition (or Fresh Start Reporting Date of April 30, 2013 for securities purchased prior to that date) or for debt securities that are beneficial interests in securitized financial assets, at a rate equal to the current yield used to accrete the beneficial interest. For floating rate securities, future cash flows and the discount rate used were both adjusted to reflect changes in the index rate applicable to each security as of the evaluation date. Of the securities that were in a gross unrealized loss position at March 31, 2016, $1,053,711 of the total fair value and $63,981 of the unrealized loss related to below investment grade securities and non-rated securities. Of the securities that were in a gross unrealized loss position at December 31, 2015, $953,000 of the total fair value and $69,214 of the unrealized loss related to below investment grade securities and non-rated securities. With respect to Ambac insured securities guaranteed under policies that have been allocated to the Segregated Account, future cash flows used to measure credit impairment represents the sum of (i) the bond’s intrinsic cash flows and (ii) the estimated Ambac Assurance claim payments, including interest on Deferred Amounts. Ambac estimates the timing of such claim payment receipts but the actual timing of such amounts are at the sole discretion of the Rehabilitator. Further modifications to the Segregated Account Rehabilitation Plan or to the rules and guidelines promulgated thereunder, orders from the Rehabilitation Court or actions by the Rehabilitator with respect to the form, amount and timing of satisfying permitted policy claims, or making payments on Deferred Amounts or surplus notes, may have a material effect on the fair value of Ambac insured securities and future recognition of other-than-temporary impairments. Refer to Note 1. Background and Business Description and to Note 1. Background and Business Description in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements included in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2015 for information relating to the amended Segregated Account Rehabilitation Plan. Ambac’s assessment about whether a decline in value is other-than-temporary reflects management’s current judgment regarding facts and circumstances specific to a security and the factors noted above. If that judgment changes, Ambac may ultimately record a charge for other-than-temporary impairment in future periods.
Municipal and corporate obligations
The gross unrealized losses on municipal and corporate obligations as of March 31, 2016 are primarily the result of the increase in interest rates since the Fresh Start Reporting Date of April 30, 2013. These securities are primarily fixed-rate securities with an investment grade credit rating. Management believes that the timely receipt of all principal and interest on these positions is probable.
Residential mortgage-backed securities
Of the $59,551 of unrealized losses on residential mortgage-backed securities, $57,269 is attributable to Ambac insured securities. The unrealized loss on these securities is primarily the result of discount accretion, which has exceeded the increase in fair value since the Fresh Start Reporting Date of April 30, 2013. As part of the quarterly impairment review process, management estimates expected future cash flows from residential mortgage-backed securities. This approach includes the utilization of market accepted software models in conjunction with detailed data of the historical performance of the collateral pools, which assists in the determination of assumptions such as defaults, severity and voluntary prepayment rates that are largely driven by home price forecasts as well as other macro-economic factors.  Additionally, for Ambac insured securities that are allocated to the Segregated Account, expected future cash flows include assumptions about the timing of Ambac Assurance claim payments, including interest on Deferred Amounts, although the actual timing of such payments are at the sole discretion of the Rehabilitator. These assumptions are used to project future cash flows for each security. Management considered this analysis in making our determination that a credit loss has not occurred at March 31, 2016 on these transactions.
Realized Gains and Losses and Other-Than-Temporary Impairments:
The following table details amounts included in net realized gains and other-than-temporary impairments included in earnings for the affected periods:
 
 
Three Months Ended March 31,
 
 
2016
 
2015
Gross realized gains on securities
 
$
1,928

 
$
50,654

Gross realized losses on securities
 
(3,609
)
 
(3,737
)
Net foreign exchange gains
 
2,783

 
7,184

Net realized gains
 
$
1,102

 
$
54,101

Net other-than-temporary impairments (1)
 
$
(9,334
)
 
$
(3,119
)
(1)
Other-than-temporary impairments exclude impairment amounts recorded in other comprehensive income under ASC Paragraph 320-10-65-1, which comprise non-credit related amounts on securities that are credit impaired but which management does not intend to sell and it is not more likely than not that Ambac will be required to sell before recovery of the amortized cost basis.
Since commencement of the Segregated Account Rehabilitation Proceedings, changes in the estimated timing of claim payments have resulted in adverse changes in projected cash flows on certain impaired Ambac insured securities. Such changes in estimated claim payments on Ambac insured securities contributed to net other-than-temporary impairments for the periods presented in the table above. Further changes to the timing of estimated claim payments could result in additional other-than-temporary impairment charges in the future. Future changes in our estimated liquidity needs could result in a determination that Ambac no longer has the ability to hold additional securities that are in an unrealized loss position, which could result in additional other-than-temporary impairment charges.
The following table presents a roll-forward of Ambac’s cumulative credit losses on debt securities held as of March 31, 2016 and 2015 for which a portion of an other-than-temporary impairment was recognized in other comprehensive income:
 
 
Three Months Ended March 31,
 
 
2016
 
2015
Balance, beginning of period
 
$
31,176

 
$
14,062

Additions for credit impairments recognized on:
 
 
 
 
Securities not previously impaired
 
580

 
1,660

Securities previously impaired
 
8,756

 
1,457

Reductions for credit impairments previously recognized on:
 
 
 
 
Securities that matured or were sold during the period
 

 

Balance, end of period
 
$
40,512

 
$
17,179


Counterparty Collateral, Deposits with Regulators and Other Restrictions:
Ambac routinely pledges and receives collateral related to certain business lines and/or transactions. Ambac pledges assets it holds in its investment portfolio to investment agreement and derivative counterparties as collateral. Securities pledged to investment agreement counterparties may not then be re-pledged to another entity. Ambac’s counterparties under derivative agreements have the right to pledge or rehypothecate the securities and as such, these pledged securities are separately classified on the Consolidated Balance Sheets as “Fixed income securities pledged as collateral, at fair value”.
The following table presents (i) the sources of collateral either received from various counterparties where Ambac is permitted to sell or re-pledge the collateral or collateral held directly in the investment portfolio and (ii) how that collateral was pledged to various investment agreements, derivative and repurchase agreement counterparties at March 31, 2016 and December 31, 2015:
 
 
Fair Value of Cash
and Underlying
Securities
 
Fair Value of Cash
and Securities
Pledged to
Investment
Agreement
Counterparties
 
Fair Value of Cash
and Securities
Pledged to
Derivative
Counterparties
March 31, 2016:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Sources of Collateral:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and securities pledged directly from the investment portfolio
 
$
368,086

 
$
108,367

 
$
259,719

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
December 31, 2015:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Sources of Collateral:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and securities pledged directly from the investment portfolio
 
$
338,007

 
$
108,379

 
$
229,628


Securities carried at $5,939 and $6,762 at March 31, 2016 and December 31, 2015, respectively, were deposited by Ambac Assurance and Everspan with governmental authorities or designated custodian banks as required by laws affecting insurance companies.
Securities with fair value of $381,249 and $396,100 at March 31, 2016 and December 31, 2015, respectively, were held by a bankruptcy remote trust to collateralize and fund repayment of debt issued through a re-securitization transaction. The securities may not be sold or repledged by the trust. These assets are held and the secured debt is issued by entities that qualify as VIEs and are consolidated in Ambac’s unaudited consolidated financial statements. Refer to Note 3. Special Purpose Entities, Including Variable Interest Entities ("VIEs") for a further description of this transaction.
Guaranteed Securities:
Ambac’s fixed income portfolio includes securities covered by guarantees issued by Ambac Assurance and other financial guarantors (“insured securities”). The published rating agency ratings on these securities reflect the higher of the financial strength rating of the financial guarantor or the rating of the underlying issuer. Rating agencies do not always publish separate underlying ratings (those ratings excluding the insurance by the financial guarantor) because the insurance cannot be legally separated from the underlying security by the insurer. In the event these underlying ratings are not available from the rating agencies, Ambac will assign an internal rating. The following table represents the fair value, including the value of the financial guarantee, and weighted-average underlying rating, excluding the financial guarantee, of the insured securities at March 31, 2016 and December 31, 2015, respectively: 
 
 
Municipal
obligations
 
Corporate
obligations
 
Mortgage
and asset-
backed
securities
 
Short-term
 
Total
 
Weighted
Average
Underlying
Rating 
(1)
March 31, 2016:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ambac Assurance Corporation (2)
 
$
58,532

 
$

 
$
2,516,589

 
$
55

 
$
2,575,176

 
CC
National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation
 
45,850

 

 

 

 
45,850

 
A-
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corporation
 
29,788

 

 

 

 
29,788

 
AA-
MBIA Insurance Corporation
 

 
25,746

 

 

 
25,746

 
A+
Total
 
$
134,170

 
$
25,746

 
$
2,516,589

 
$
55

 
$
2,676,560

 
CC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
December 31, 2015:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ambac Assurance Corporation (2)
 
$
60,836

 
$

 
$
2,216,317

 
$

 
$
2,277,153

 
CC
National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation
 
47,846

 

 

 

 
47,846

 
A-
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corporation
 
57,715

 

 

 

 
57,715

 
A+
MBIA Insurance Corporation
 

 
25,645

 

 

 
25,645

 
A+
Total
 
$
166,397

 
$
25,645

 
$
2,216,317

 
$

 
$
2,408,359

 
CCC-
 
(1)
Ratings are based on the lower of Standard & Poor’s or Moody’s rating. If unavailable, Ambac’s internal rating is used.
(2)
Includes asset-backed securities with a fair value of $118,968 and $119,802 at March 31, 2016 and December 31, 2015, insured by Ambac UK.
Investment Income:
Net investment income was comprised of the following for the affected periods:
 
 
Three Months Ended March 31,
 
 
2016
 
2015
Fixed income securities
 
$
59,426

 
$
65,585

Short-term investments
 
553

 
42

Loans
 
106

 
132

Investment expense
 
(2,103
)
 
(2,427
)
Securities available-for-sale and short-term
 
57,982

 
63,332

Other investments
 
2,839

 
9,651

Total net investment income
 
$
60,821

 
$
72,983


Net investment income from Other investments primarily represents changes in fair value on securities classified as trading or under the fair value option plus income from Ambac's equity interest in an unconsolidated trust created in connection with its sale of Segregated Account junior surplus notes. The portion of net unrealized gains (losses) related to trading securities still held at the end of each period is as follows:
 
 
Three Months Ended March 31,
 
 
2016
 
2015
Net gains (losses) recognized during the period on trading securities
 
$
1,707

 
$
7,819

Less: net gains (losses) recognized during the reporting period on trading securities sold during the period
 
406

 
1,564

Unrealized gains (losses) recognized during the reporting period on trading securities still held at the reporting date
 
$
1,301

 
$
6,255