Note 3 - Property and Casualty Insurance Reserves

Property and casualty insurance reserve activity for the three months ended March 31, 2018 and 2017 was:



	Three Months Ended
(Dollars in Millions)	Mar 31, 2018			Mar 31, 2017
Property and Casualty Insurance Reserves:
Gross of Reinsurance and Indemnification at Beginning of Year	$	1,016.8		$	931.4
Less Reinsurance and Indemnification Recoverables at Beginning of Year	53.1			50.2
Property and Casualty Insurance Reserves - Net of Reinsurance and Indemnification at Beginning of Year	963.7			881.2
Incurred Losses and LAE Related to:
Current Year:
Continuing Operations	339.3			373.0
Prior Years:
Continuing Operations	(1.0		)	11.1
Discontinued Operations	(0.3		)	(0.2		)
Total Incurred Losses and LAE Related to Prior Years	(1.3		)	10.9
Total Incurred Losses and LAE	338.0			383.9
Paid Losses and LAE Related to:
Current Year:
Continuing Operations	125.3			120.6
Prior Years:
Continuing Operations	222.2			211.6
Discontinued Operations	0.7			0.8
Total Paid Losses and LAE Related to Prior Years	222.9			212.4
Total Paid Losses and LAE	348.2			333.0
Property and Casualty Insurance Reserves - Net of Reinsurance and Indemnification at End of Period	953.5			932.1
Plus Reinsurance and Indemnification Recoverables at End of Period	51.6			52.3
Property and Casualty Insurance Reserves - Gross of Reinsurance and Indemnification at End of Period	$	1,005.1		$	984.4

Property and casualty insurance reserves are estimated based on historical experience patterns and current economic trends. Actual loss experience and loss trends are likely to differ from these historical experience patterns and economic conditions. Loss experience and loss trends emerge over several years from the dates of loss inception. The Company monitors such emerging loss trends on a quarterly basis. Changes in such estimates are included in the Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations in the period of change.

For the three months ended March 31, 2018, the Company decreased its property and casualty insurance reserves by $1.3 million to recognize favorable development of loss and LAE reserves from prior accident years. Personal lines insurance loss and LAE reserves developed favorably by $0.3 million, and commercial lines insurance loss and LAE reserves developed favorably by $1.0 million. Personal automobile insurance loss and LAE reserves developed adversely by $0.5 million due primarily to the emergence of loss patterns that were worse than expected for liability insurance for the 2016 and prior accident years, partially offset by the emergence of more favorable loss patterns than expected for both physical damage and liability insurance lines for the 2017 accident year. Homeowners insurance loss and LAE reserves developed adversely by $0.5 million due primarily to the emergence of loss patterns that were worse than expected for the 2017 and 2016 accident years, partially offset by favorable development on catastrophes of $5.1 million related to the 2017 accident year. Other personal lines loss and LAE reserves developed favorably by $1.2 million due primarily to the emergence of more favorable loss patterns than

Note 3 - Property and Casualty Insurance Reserves (continued)

expected for the 2016 and 2015 accident years. Commercial lines insurance loss and LAE reserves developed favorably due primarily to the emergence of more favorable loss patterns than expected for the 2014 accident year and, to a lesser extent, the 2017 and 2016 accident years.

For the three months ended March 31, 2017, the Company increased its property and casualty insurance reserves by $10.9 million to recognize adverse development of loss and LAE reserves from prior accident years. Personal lines insurance loss and LAE reserves developed adversely by $9.3 million, and commercial lines insurance loss and LAE reserves developed adversely by $1.6 million. The commercial lines insurance loss and LAE reserve development included $1.8 million of adverse development from continuing operations and favorable development of $0.2 million from discontinued operations. Personal automobile insurance loss and LAE reserves developed adversely by $9.9 million due primarily to the emergence of loss patterns that were worse than expected for both the physical damage and liability insurance lines for the 2016 accident year. Homeowners insurance loss and LAE reserves developed adversely by $0.1 million due primarily to the emergence of loss patterns that were worse than expected for the 2016 accident year, partially offset by favorable development on catastrophes of $0.6 million related to the 2016 and 2015 accident years. Other personal lines loss and LAE reserves developed favorably by $0.7 million due primarily to the emergence of more favorable loss patterns than expected for the 2015, 2014 and 2013 accident years, partially offset by the emergence of worse than expected loss patterns for the 2016 accident year.

The Company cannot predict whether loss and LAE reserves will develop favorably or adversely from the amounts reported in the Company’s Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements. The Company believes that any such development will not have a material effect on the Company’s consolidated shareholders’ equity, but could have a material effect on the Company’s consolidated financial results for a given period.