Note 3 - Property and Casualty Insurance Reserves

Property and casualty insurance reserve activity for the three months ended March 31, 2014 and 2013 was:



	Three Months Ended
(Dollars in Millions)	Mar 31, 2014			Mar 31, 2013
Property and Casualty Insurance Reserves:
Gross of Reinsurance at Beginning of Year	$	843.5		$	970.6
Less Reinsurance Recoverables at Beginning of Year	63.4			66.2
Property and Casualty Insurance Reserves - Net of Reinsurance at Beginning of Year	780.1			904.4
Incurred Losses and LAE Related to:
Current Year:
Continuing Operations	253.0			269.6
Prior Years:
Continuing Operations	(15.2		)	(13.7		)
Discontinued Operations	0.2			0.4
Total Incurred Losses and LAE Related to Prior Years	(15.0		)	(13.3		)
Total Incurred Losses and LAE	238.0			256.3
Paid Losses and LAE Related to:
Current Year:
Continuing Operations	108.4			111.8
Prior Years:
Continuing Operations	140.1			171.5
Discontinued Operations	2.2			4.1
Total Paid Losses and LAE Related to Prior Years	142.3			175.6
Total Paid Losses and LAE	250.7			287.4
Property and Casualty Insurance Reserves - Net of Reinsurance at End of Period	767.4			873.3
Plus Reinsurance Recoverables at End of Period	62.2			69.0
Property and Casualty Insurance Reserves - Gross of Reinsurance at End of Period	$	829.6		$	942.3

Property and casualty insurance reserves are estimated based on historical experience patterns and current economic trends. Actual loss experience and loss trends are likely to differ from these historical experience patterns and economic conditions. Loss experience and loss trends emerge over several years from the dates of loss inception. The Company monitors such emerging loss trends on a quarterly basis. Changes in such estimates are included in the Condensed Consolidated Statements of Income in the period of change.

For the three months ended March 31, 2014, the Company reduced its property and casualty insurance reserves by $15.0 million to recognize favorable development of losses and LAE from prior accident years. Personal lines insurance losses and LAE reserves developed favorably by $14.7 million and commercial lines insurance losses and LAE reserves developed favorably by $0.3 million. The commercial lines insurance losses and LAE reserves included favorable development of $0.5 million from continuing operations and unfavorable development of $0.2 million from discontinued operations. Personal automobile insurance losses and LAE reserves developed favorably by $11.5 million, homeowners insurance losses and LAE reserves developed favorably by $2.8 million and other personal lines losses and LAE reserves developed favorably by $0.4 million. The personal lines insurance losses and LAE reserves developed favorably due primarily to the emergence of more favorable loss patterns than expected for the three most recent accident years.

Note 3 - Property and Casualty Insurance Reserves (continued)

For the three months ended March 31, 2013, the Company reduced its property and casualty insurance reserves by $13.3 million to recognize favorable development of losses and LAE from prior accident years. Personal lines insurance losses and LAE reserves developed favorably by $14.4 million and commercial lines insurance losses and LAE reserves developed unfavorably by $1.1 million. The commercial lines insurance losses and LAE reserves included unfavorable development of $0.7 million from continuing operations and $0.4 million from discontinued operations. Personal automobile insurance losses and LAE reserves developed favorably by $6.8 million, homeowners insurance losses and LAE reserves developed favorably by $6.2 million and other personal lines losses and LAE reserves developed favorably by $1.4 million. The personal lines insurance losses and LAE reserves developed favorably due primarily to the emergence of more favorable loss patterns than expected for the three most recent accident years.

The Company cannot predict whether losses and LAE will develop favorably or unfavorably from the amounts reported in the Company’s Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements. The Company believes that any such development will not have a material effect on the Company’s consolidated shareholders’ equity, but could have a material effect on the Company’s consolidated financial results for a given period.