6. HISTORICAL LOSS AND LAE DEVELOPMENT

The following table is a reconciliation of our unpaid losses and settlement expenses (LAE) for the years 2015, 2014 and 2013.


(in thousands)	2015		2014		2013
Unpaid losses and LAE at beginning of year:
Gross	$	1,121,040	$	1,129,433	$	1,158,483
Ceded		(335,106)		(354,924)		(359,884)
Net	$	785,934	$	774,509	$	798,599

Increase (decrease) in incurred losses and LAE:
Current accident year	$	364,472	$	361,451	$	332,282
Prior accident years		(65,427)		(64,842)		(72,481)
Total incurred	$	299,045	$	296,609	$	259,801

Loss and LAE payments for claims incurred:
Current accident year	$	(71,853)	$	(65,308)	$	(57,537)
Prior accident year		(207,185)		(219,876)		(226,354)
Total paid	$	(279,038)	$	(285,184)	$	(283,891)

Net unpaid losses and LAE at end of year	$	805,941	$	785,934	$	774,509

Unpaid losses and LAE at end of year:
Gross	$	1,103,785	$	1,121,040	$	1,129,433
Ceded		(297,844)		(335,106)		(354,924)
Net	$	805,941	$	785,934	$	774,509

The differences from our initial reserve estimates emerged as changes in our ultimate loss expectations as we performed our reserve analysis process. The recognition of the changes in initial reserve estimates occurred over time as claims were reported, initial case reserves were established, initial reserves were reviewed in light of additional information and ultimate payments were made on the collective set of claims incurred as of that evaluation date. The new information on the ultimate settlement value of claims is continually updated until all claims in a defined set are settled. As a small specialty insurer with a diversified product portfolio, our experience will ordinarily exhibit fluctuations from period to period. While we attempt to identify and react to systematic changes in the loss environment, we also must consider the volume of experience directly available to us and interpret any particular period’s indications with a realistic technical understanding of the reliability of those observations.

The following table summarizes our prior accident years’ loss reserve development by segment for 2015, 2014 and 2013:


(FAVORABLE)/UNFAVORABLE RESERVE DEVELOPMENT BY SEGMENT
(in thousands)	2015		2014		2013
Casualty	$	(45,654)	$	(52,825)	$	(61,805)
Property		(11,848)		(1,123)		(7,273)
Surety		(7,925)		(10,894)		(3,403)
Total	$	(65,427)	$	(64,842)	$	(72,481)

A discussion of significant components of reserve development for the three most recent calendar years follows:

2015. We experienced favorable emergence relative to prior years’ reserve estimates in all of our segments during 2015. Development from the casualty segment totaled $45.7 million with the largest amounts coming from accident years 2010 through 2014. We continue to experience emergence that is generally better than previously estimated, but to a lesser degree in 2015 than in the previous two years. Frequency and severity trends have been favorable relative to initial estimates and we believe this is largely due to risk selection by our underwriters, which has been effective in offsetting loss cost trends and a competitive pricing environment. Our general liability product was the largest single contributor to this favorable development at $14.7 million. Although the habitational classes within this product produced adverse development, it was more than offset by favorable development from the construction classes. The second largest contributor was our commercial umbrella product at $10.7 million and we also had a favorable contribution of $5.4 million from our transportation product. In addition, our P&C package product had $6.6 million of favorable development. One business unit, the professional services product, experienced adverse development totaling $3.2 million in 2015. In addition, the casualty runoff business experienced $5.4 million of adverse development, with a large portion attributable to the 1983 accident year.

For the third year in a row, our marine product was the predominant driver of the favorable development in the property segment, accounting for $9.2 million of the $11.8 million total favorable development for the segment. The accident years making the largest contributions were 2010 through 2014. The inland marine and cargo coverages were responsible for the majority of the favorable loss experience. Our assumed property products contributed $4.9 million of favorable development with the majority of that coming from loss reductions on previous hurricanes and storms. Development on direct property products business was also favorable overall. Our recreational vehicle product experienced $1.3 million of adverse development, mostly due to auto physical damage coverages.

The surety segment experienced $7.9 million of favorable development. The majority of the favorable development came from the 2014 accident year, which served to offset the unfavorable development from accident years 2010 and 2013. Commercial, contract and energy surety contributed favorable development of $4.0 million, $2.2 million and $2.0 million, respectively. Miscellaneous surety experience adverse development totaling $0.3 million.

2014. We experienced favorable emergence relative to prior years’ reserve estimates in all our segments during 2014. The casualty segment contributed $52.8 million in favorable development. Accident years 2012 and 2013 contributed significantly to the favorable development, with accident years 2007 to 2011 also continuing to develop favorably. The favorable development in 2014 was smaller than 2013. This was predominantly caused by favorable frequency and severity trends that continued to be better than our long-term expectations. In addition, we believe this to be the result of our underwriters’ risk selection, which has mostly offset price declines and loss cost inflation. Nearly all of our casualty products contributed to the favorable development, but this was particularly true for our general liability product. The general liability product contributed $28.1 million to our favorable development with all coverages contributing to the favorable development in 2014. P&C package products were the second largest contributor with $9.4 million in favorable development mostly from accident years 2011, 2012 and 2013. Personal and commercial umbrella were favorable by $0.8 million and $4.4 million, respectively. Run-off business had favorable development of $0.9 million due mostly to favorable development in the discontinued restaurant-bar-tavern business.

The marine product was the primary driver of the favorable development in the property segment. Marine contributed $5.8 million of the $1.1 million total favorable property development. Accident years 2012 and 2013 contributed to the marine products’ favorable development. Assumed property and crop were unfavorable by $4.0 million and $1.2 million, respectively. The unfavorable assumed property development was primarily attributable to 2012 spring storms on a treaty, covering mostly Texas homeowners, which was cancelled in early 2013.

The surety segment experienced favorable development of $10.9 million. The majority of the favorable development was from accident year 2013. Contract and commercial surety products were the main contributors with favorable development of $4.6 million and $4.3 million, respectively. Energy surety had favorable development of $1.2 million and miscellaneous surety had favorable development of $0.9 million.

2013. We experienced favorable emergence relative to prior years’ reserve estimate in all our segments during 2013. The casualty segment contributed $61.8 million in favorable development. Accident year 2012 contributed significantly to the favorable development, with accident years 2008 to 2011 also continuing to develop favorably. The favorable development in 2013 was larger than 2012 and reflects the continuing favorable frequency and severity trends. In addition, the risk selection by our underwriters continued to provide results better than estimated in our reserving process. The general liability product contributed $28.5 million to our favorable development with all coverages, including habitational contributing to the favorable development in 2013. Executive products were the second largest contributor with $8.9 million in favorable development mostly from accident year 2011. Personal and commercial umbrella were favorable by $7.5 million and $6.5 million respectively. P&C package products were favorable by $8.1 million. Our run-off program business was favorable by $2.0 million mostly from the discontinued restaurant-bar-tavern business. Transportation and miscellaneous professional liability were the only products unfavorable at $3.5 million and $0.5 million, respectively.

The marine product was the primary driver of the favorable development in the property segment. Marine contributed $5.9 million of the $7.3 million total favorable property development. Accident year 2009 to 2012 contributed to the marine products’ favorable development. The marine protection & indemnity and liability coverages accounted for the majority of the favorable development. Other direct property products contributed $3.5 million favorable development offsetting the unfavorable development of $1.4 million in the assumed property.

The surety segment experienced favorable development of $3.4 million. The majority of the favorable development was from accident year 2012, which offset the unfavorable development from accident years 2009 to 2011. The adverse development coincided with the economic environment in those years. The majority of the adverse development was from the contract and miscellaneous surety products. Though accident year 2012 was favorable for all of surety combined, energy surety was unfavorable in accident year 2012.

ENVIRONMENTAL, ASBESTOS AND MASS TORT EXPOSURES

We are subject to environmental site cleanup, asbestos removal and mass tort claims and exposures through our commercial umbrella, general liability and discontinued assumed casualty reinsurance lines of business. The majority of the exposure is in the excess layers of our commercial umbrella and assumed reinsurance books of business.

The following table represents paid and unpaid environmental, asbestos and mass tort claims data (including incurred but not reported losses) as of December 31, 2015, 2014 and 2013:


(in thousands)	2015		2014		2013
LOSS AND LAE PAYMENTS (CUMULATIVE)
Gross	$	119,632	$	112,819	$	105,559
Ceded		(62,463)		(59,376)		(57,976)
Net	$	57,169	$	53,443	$	47,583

UNPAID LOSSES AND LAE AT END OF YEAR
Gross	$	41,062	$	39,064	$	48,507
Ceded		(12,559)		(11,879)		(15,043)
Net	$	28,503	$	27,185	$	33,464

Our environmental, asbestos and mass tort exposure is limited, relative to other insurers, as a result of entering the affected liability lines after the insurance industry had already recognized environmental and asbestos exposure as a problem and adopted appropriate coverage exclusions. The majority of our reserves are associated with products that went into runoff at least two decades ago. Some are for assumed reinsurance, some are for excess liability business and some followed from the acquisition of Underwriters Indemnity Company in 1999.

Calendar year 2015 was fairly active in aggregate, with inception-to-date incurred losses increasing on a gross and net basis. The most significant change was an increase in the case reserves for a 1983 claim. The claim is reserved at the policy limit, with a gross increase of $2.5 million and a net increase of $2.4 million.

While our environmental exposure is limited, the ultimate liability for this exposure is difficult to assess because of the extensive and complicated litigation involved in the settlement of claims and evolving legislation on issues such as joint and several liability, retroactive liability and standards of cleanup. Additionally, we participate primarily in the excess layers of coverage, where accurate estimates of ultimate loss are more difficult to derive than for primary coverage.