EX-99.C.2 5 u07684exv99wcw2.htm EX-99.C.2 exv99wcw2
Exhibit D
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CONFIDENTIAL JULY 6, 2009 TELEFÓNICA DE ARGENTINA S.A. Discussion Materials DRAFT

 


 

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TELEFÓNICA DE ARGENTINA S.A. Discussion Materials Disclaimer The Information herein has been prepared by MBA Lazard based upon information supplied by Telefónica de Argentina S.A. (the “Company”), or publicly available, and portions of the information herein may be based upon certain statements, estimates and forecasts provided by the Company with respect to the anticipated future performance of the Company. We have relied upon the accuracy and completeness of the foregoing information, and have not assumed any responsibility for any independent verification of such information or any independent valuation or appraisal of any assets or liabilities of the Company or any other entity, or concerning solvency or fair value of the Company or any other entity. With respect to financial forecasts, we have assumed that they have been reasonably prepared on bases reflecting the best currently available estimates and judgments of the management of the Company as to the future financial performance of the Company. We assume no responsibility for and express no view as to such forecasts or the assumptions upon which they are based. The information set forth herein is based upon economic, monetary, market and other conditions as in effect on, and the information made available to us as of, the date hereof. These materials and the information contained herein are confidential and may not be disclosed publicly or made available to third parties, other than the Comisión Nacional de Valores, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Buenos Aires Exchange, without the prior written consent of MBA Lazard; provided, however that the Company may disclose to any and all persons the U.S. federal income tax treatment and tax structure of the transaction described herein and the portions of these materials that relate to such tax treatment or structure. MBA Lazard is acting as investment banker to the Board of Directors and Audit Committee of the Company, and will not be responsible for and will not provide any tax, accounting, actuarial, legal or other specialist advice.

 


 

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SHARE PRICE OF TELEFONICA DE ARGENTINA (4)(5)(6) Share(1) All amounts in AR$ 7.86 10.86 9.60 4.90 9.16 8.61 9.54 8.23 5.14 4.04 3.73 10.25 9.65 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 Valuation Summary Price ranges estimated for the different valuation methods performed (1) Price of 10 shares of nominal value of AR$ 0.1 each. (2) Price of 1 share of nominal value of AR$ 0.1. (3) Calculated as 4 times the price of 10 shares of nominal value of AR$ 0.1 each (4) The valuation by Liquidation Value was not considered given that, in accordance with the information provided by the Company and the high technology nature of the assets of the Company, the value of the Company's assets is much lower under a liquidation scenario than under a going concern scenario. (5) The valuation according to Public Acquisition Offerings or New Stock Issuances was not applicable as the Company has not performed any Public Offerings or new issuances in the last twelve months. (6) This valuation summary captures the results of all the valuation methodologies applied by MBA Lazard to support its opinion. These methodologies include, among others, those contemplated in Argentine Decree 677/2001. MBA Lazard will maintain appropriate record of the back up materials produced in connection with the above. METHODOLOGY AND COMMENTS Individual Share(2) Individual Share(2) ADR(3) ADR(3) Min Max Min Max DISCOUNTED FUTURE CASH FLOWS (DCF) Projection of 5 years + Terminal Value based on a perpetuity (annual growth rate 3.0%) Discount Rate (WACC) of 13.9% Implied Multiple for FV/EBITDA LTM Mar 2009 from 2.8x to 3.6x The range was determined by varying the discount rate +/- 100bps and the perpetual growth rate +/- 0.5% in order to widen the range. 0.79 1.09 31.44 43.45 DISCOUNTED FUTURE CASH FLOWS (DCF) Projection of 5 years + Terminal Value based on a perpetuity (annual growth rate 3.0%) Discount Rate (WACC) of 13.9% Implied Multiple for FV/EBITDA LTM Mar 2009 from 2.8x to 3.6x The range was determined by varying the discount rate +/- 100bps and the perpetual growth rate +/- 0.5% in order to widen the range. 0.49 0.96 19.60 38.40 MARKET PRICE Range formed by the minimum (December 25, 2008) and maximum (June 23, 2009) price of 10 shares of nominal value of AR$0.1 each, in the previous 6 months. As of July 2, the price of 10 shares of nominal value of AR$0.1 each is AR$9.30 0.86 0.92 34.44 36.64 PUBLIC COMPARABLE COMPANIES LATAM Multiple FV/EBITDA LTM March 2009 of public fixed line and integrated telephone companies in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Chile. The range of multiples FV/EBITDA LTM has a median value for the region of 4.7x and was discounted 35% +/-5% to account for higher country risk of Argentina than that of its Latin peers. The resulting range of multiples was 3.0x / 3.1x. 0.40 0.51 16.16 20.57 PUBLIC COMPARABLE COMPANIES DEVELOPED MARKETS This methodology produces results that can be distorted in times when the country risk premium is elevated. In this case, the country risk premium used (9.12%) generates an excessive adjustment, resulting in a FV/EBITDA multiple below 2.0x, which seems too low even for Argentina. 0.96 1.03 38.59 41.01 TRANSACTIONS OF COMPARABLE COMPANIES LATAM Recent transactions of companies in the fixed line and integrated telephone industry in Latin America. The range of multiples FV/EBITDA LTM has a median value of 5.2x which was adjusted by a discount of 35% +/- 5% to account for higher country risk in Argentina than that of its Latin peers. The range of resulting multiples was 3.3x/3.5x. 0.37 0.37 14.93 14.93 BOOK VALUE The book value of the Company, as stated in the audited financial statements as of March 31, 2009 is AR$ 2,607 MM, which is equivalent to AR $3.73 per 10 shares of nominal value of AR$ 0.1 each. 0.82 0.95 32.92 38.16 RECENT COMPANY TRANSACTIONS Telefonica Moviles de Argentina S.A. acquired shares of the Company from Telefonica Internacional S.A. in October 2008 and March 2009. In the first transaction, Telefonica Moviles de Argentina S.A. paid AR$ 9.54 per 10 shares of nominal value of AR$ 0.1 each, while in the second transaction the price paid amounted to AR$ 8.23 per 10 shares of nominal value of AR$ 0.1 each. Offer Price = AR$ 10.00


 

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TELEFÓNICA DE ARGENTINA S.A. Discussion Materials Discounted Cash Flows Valuation Results FREE CASH FLOW in Ar$ MM Apr-Dec 2009 2010P 2011P 2012P 2013P TV Revenue 4,004 6,037 6,682 7,240 7,674 7,904 Growth YoY % ... 12.7% 10.7% 8.3% 6.0% 3.0% EBITDA 1,361 2,085 2,337 2,660 2,954 3,043 Growth YoY % ... 10.6% 12.1% 13.8% 11.1% 3.0% Margin % 34.0% 34.5% 35.0% 36.7% 38.5% 38.5% D Working Capital 201 178 173 (28) (182) 26 D Other Assets and Liabilities 2 0 0 0 0 0 Income Taxes (183) (375) (423) (477) (589) (658) Other Revenue/(Expense) (172) (203) (192) (148) (106) (62) Capex (Fixed Assets & Intangibles) (808) (1,117) (1,380) (1,236) (1,036) (1,067) Free Cash Flow (AR$MM) 401 568 516 770 1,042 1,282 Average Exchange Rate (AR$  per US $) 4.05 4.31 4.55 4.65 4.71 4.76 Free Cash Flow (US$MM) 99 132 113 165 221 269 VALUATION in US$ MM Free Cash Flow (Apr09 — 2013) 526 Terminal Value 1,415 Firm Value (FV) 1,941 Financial Debt (391) Excess Cash 138 Equity Value (EV) 1,688 Exchange Rate (AR$ 3.79 /US$ ) as of June 23, 2009(4) EV in AR$ MM 6,392 # of Shares equiv. to AR$ 1 in Nominal Value (in MM) 698 Price of Share (in AR$) (1) 9.15 Price of Individual Share (in AR$) (2) 0.92 Price of ADR (in AR$) (3) 36.61 Market Cap 1,777 Premium/(Discount) over EV DCF 5.0% Market Cap (Average L6M) 1,374 Premium/(Discount) over EV DCF (22.9%) DISCOUNT RATE WACC 13.9% Perpetual Growth 3.0% IMPLIED MULTIPLES LTM Mar-2009 FV/SALES 1.3x FV/EBITDA 3.1x P/BV 2.4x (2) Price of 1 share of nominal value of AR$ 0.1.
(3) Price of 1 ADR, calculated as 4 times the price of 10 shares of nominal value of AR$ 0.1 each. (4) Date of the Company’s offer. 2

 


 

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TELEFÓNICA DE ARGENTINA S.A. Discussion Materials Discounted Cash Flows (Cont.) Sensitivity to WACC & Perpetual Growth PRICE PER SHARE(1) (AR$) PRICE PER INDIVIDUAL SHARE(2) (AR$) PRICE PER ADR(3) (AR$) MULTIPLE FIRM VALUE / EBITDA LTM MAR-09 WACC WACC WACC WACC 12.9% 13.9% 14.9% 12.9% 13.9% 14.9% 12.9% 13.9% 14.9% 12.9% 13.9% 14.9% Perpetual 2.5% 9.81 8.75 7.86 Perpetual 2.5% 0.98 0.87 0.79 Perpetual 2.5% 39.23 34.98 31.44 Perpetual 2.5% 3.3x 3.0x 2.8x Growth Growth Growth Growth 3.0% 10.31 9.15 8.19 3.0% 1.03 0.92 0.82 3.0% 41.23 36.61 32.78 3.0% 3.5x 3.1x 2.9x 3.5% 10.86 9.60 8.56 3.5% 1.09 0.96 0.86 3.5% 43.45 38.39 34.24 3.5% 3.6x 3.3x 3.0x Sensitivity to CAPEX(4) / Sales & EBITDA % TV PRICE PER SHARE(1) (AR$) PRICE PER INDIVIDUAL SHARE(2) (AR$) PRICE PER ADR(3) (AR$) MULTIPLE FIRM VALUE / EBITDA LTM MAR-09 Capex/Sales Terminal Value (“TV”) Capex/Sales Terminal Value (“TV”) Capex/Sales Terminal Value (“TV”) Capex/Sales Terminal Value (“TV”) 12.5% 13.5% 14.5% 12.5% 13.5% 14.5% 12.5% 13.5% 14.5% 12.5% 13.5% 14.5% EBITDA EBITDA 37.5% 9.15 8.81 8.47 37.5% 0.91 0.88 0.85 Perpetual Growth 37.5% 36.59 35.23 33.87 EBITDA 37.5% 3.1x 3.0x 2.9x 38.5% 9.49 9.15 8.81 38.5% 0.95 0.92 0.88 38.5% 37.97 36.61 35.25 38.5% 3.2x 3.1x 3.0x Margin TV 39.5% 9.84 9.50 9.16 Margin TV 39.5% 0.98 0.95 0.92 39.5% 39.35 37.99 36.63 Margin TV 39.5% 3.3x 3.2x 3.1x (1) Price of 10 shares of nominal value of AR$ 0.1 each. (2) Price of 1 share of nominal value of AR$ 0.1. (3) Price of 1 ADR, calculated as 4 times the price of 10 shares of nominal value of AR$ 0.1 each (4) Includes investments in Fixed Assets and Intangibles 3

 


 

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TELEFÓNICA DE ARGENTINA S.A. Discussion Materials Discounted Cash Flows (Cont.) Calculation of Discount Rate EQUITY Risk Free Rate (US Treasury)(1) 3.3% Argentina - Country Risk Premium(2) 9.1% Risk Free Rate — Argentina 12.4% Asset Beta — Industry(3) 0.51 Equity Beta — TASA(4) 0.62 Market Risk Premium (USA)(5) 6.5% Equity Risk Premium 4.0% Cost of Equity(6) 16.4% DEBT Cost of Debt of TASA(7) 10.0% Tax Rate 35.0% Cost of Debt (after-tax) 6.5% WACC Cost of Equity 16.4% Equity / (Equity + Debt) (8) 75.0% Cost of Debt (after-tax) 6.5% Debt / (Equity + Debt) 25.0% WACC(9) 13.9% (1) 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate (average of the period 24/06/2008 — 23/06/2009). Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2) Source: Average of last 2 years of EMBI+ Argentina issued by JP Morgan, values as of June 23, 2009 (3) Estimated based on public comparable companies. (4) Equity Beta = Asset beta * (1 + (1 -Tax Rate) * Net Debt/Equity). Source: Bloomberg, values as of June 23, 2009 (5) Source: Damodaran. Range of Information: 1932 — 2008 (6) Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Equity Beta x Market Premium) + Country Risk Premium (7) Estimated long term cost of debt. Although the Company currently has no long term debt, it was estimated that 10% is a reasonable interest rate for the Company based on yield curve of long term bonds of Argentine companies with similiar risk profiles. (8) Target capital structure of Company. (9) Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) = [Cost of Debt (after-tax) x Net Debt/(Net Debt+Equity)] + [Cost of Equity x Equity/(Net Debt+Equity)]

 


 

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TELEFÓNICA DE ARGENTINA S.A. Discussion Materials Market Price Evolution of TASA’s stock price on the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange (a) STOCK PERFORMANCE Price(2) Indiv. Price(3) ADR Price(4) FV/EBITDA (Ar $/Share) (Ar $/Share) (AR $/Share) Current(1) $ 9.60 $ 0.96 $ 38.40 3.3x 2 Year High $ 15.00 $ 1.50 $ 60.00 6.6x 2 Year Low $ 3.10 $ 0.31 $ 12.40 1.5x Average (L6M) $ 7.15 $ 0.72 $ 28.60 2.7x Average (L3M) $ 8.05 $ 0.80 $ 32.18 2.9x Average (L9M) $ 6.32 $ 0.63 $ 25.27 2.5x Average (LTM) $ 6.56 $ 0.66 $ 26.23 2.7x (1) As of June 23, 2009, date of the Company’s offer. As of July 2, the price of 10 shares of nominal value of AR$0.1 each is AR$9.30 (2) Price of 10 shares of nominal value of AR$ 0.1 each. (3) Price of 1 share of nominal value of AR$ 0.1. (4) Calculated as 4 times the price of 10 shares of nominal value of AR$ 0.1 each. EVOLUTION OF EQUITY VALUE & FV/EBITDA Equity Value in US$ MM FV/EBITDA 3,500 8x 7x 3,000 6x 2,500 5x 2,000 4x 3x 1,500 1,000 1x 500 0x Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 Jun-09 FV/EBITDA Avg FV/EBITDA L6M Market Cap Avg Mkt Cap L6M EVOLUTION OF PRICE AND VOLUME OF STOCK (1) Prices in AR$/Share Volume in ‘000s of shares (2) 16.0 70 14.0 55 12.0 40 10.0 8.0 25 6.0 10 4.0 2.0 -5 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 Jun-09 Volume TEAR2 (1) Price of 10 shares of Nominal Value of AR$ 0.1 each
(2) In ‘000s of groups of 10 shares of nominal value of AR$ 0.1 each PERFORMANCE RELATIVE TO MERVAL Indices in US$ (June 24, 2007 = 100) 120 100 80 60 40 20 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 Jun-09 TEAR2 Merval (a) NOTE: Ticker symbol TEAR2 corresponds to the price of 10 shares of nominal value of AR$ 0.1 each 5

 


 

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TELEFÓNICA DE ARGENTINA S.A. Discussion Materials Multiples of Public Comparable Companies Valuation Results MULTIPLES FOR LATIN AMERICAN COMPANIES (VALUES IN US $ MM) Company Country Market Cap. Firm Value EBITDA FV/EBITDA Telecom Argentina Argentina 2,332 2,512 1,033 2.4x Telemar Norte Leste Brazil 6,640 16,865 3,290 5.1x Brasil Telecom Brazil 9,480 11,143 1,755 6.3x Embratel Participações Brazil 4,748 5,878 1,248 4.7x Telefónica CTC Chile Chile 1,324 1,896 481 3.9x Telmex Mexico 14,426 21,266 4,541 4.7x Median 4.7x Average 4.5x MULTIPLES FOR COMPANIES IN DEVELOPED MARKETS (VALUES IN US$ MM) Company Country Market Cap. Firm Value EBITDA FV/EBITDA AT&T USA 145,494 216,436 42,686 5.1x Verizon USA 86,694 190,179 32,256 5.9x British Telecom UK 12,901 30,733 6,309 4.9x Deutsche Telecom Germany 50,645 121,118 25,239 4.8x France Telecom France 59,383 112,535 27,800 4.0x Telecom Italia Italy 23,247 73,632 15,795 4.7x Telefónica Spain 103,702 167,325 32,435 5.2x Singapore Telecom Singapore 31,772 35,996 3,085 11.7x Telstra Australia 31,688 44,516 8,694 5.1x Median 5.1x Average 5.7x Argentina Country Risk VALUATION Discount Factor in US$ MM 37% 33% EBITDA(1) 618 Median Multiple 4.7x 4.7x Discount 37% 33% (7) Discounted Multiple 3.0x 3.1x Firm Value 1,841 1,943 Net Debt (2) (253) Equity Value 1,589 1,690 Price per Share (AR$) (3)(4) 8.61 9.16 Price per Individual Share (AR$) 0.86 0.92 (3)(5) Price of ADR (AR$) (3)(6) 34.44 36.64 Argentina Country Risk VALUATION Discount Factor in US$ MM 68% 62% EBITDA(1) 618 Median Multiple 5.1x 5.1x Discount 68% 62% (7) Discounted Multiple 1.6x 1.9x Firm Value 998 1,202 Net Debt (2) (253) Equity Value 745 949 (3)(4) Price per Share (AR$) 4.04 5.14 Price per Individual Share (AR$) 0.40 0.51 (3)(5) Price of ADR (AR$) (3)(6) 16.16 20.57 (1) LTM Mar 31, 2009 (2) As of Mar 31, 2009 (3) Converted to AR$ using the exchange rate of June, 23, 2009 of AR$/US$ 3.79 (4) Price of 10 shares of nominal value of AR$ 0.1 each. (5) Price of 1 share of nominal value of AR$ 0.1. (6) Calculated as 4 times the price of 10 shares of nominal value of AR$ 0.1 each. (7) The Argentine country risk discount factor was estimated to adjust the Latin American and Developed Market multiples for the higher Argentina country risk.

 


 

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TELEFÓNICA DE ARGENTINA S.A. Discussion Materials Multiples of Transactions of Comparable Companies Valuation Results COMPARABLE TRANSACTIONS IN LATIN AMERICA (VALUES IN US$ MM) Date Target Country Acquirer Equity Value Firm Value EBITDA FV/EBITDA Nov-08 CTC Chile Telefónica 1,550 2,197 542 4.1x May-07 Impsat Argentina Global Crossing Ltd 95 317 61 5.2x May-07 CANTV(1) Venezuela República de Venezuela 2,007 1,497 819 1.8x Mar-07 Puerto Rico Telephone Puerto Rico América Móvil SA de CV 1,806 2,329 NA NA Dec-06 Verizon Dominicana Dominican Rep. América Móvil SA de CV 2,415 2,662 433 6.1x Nov-06 Embratel Brazil Telmex de México 3,157 3,471 837 4.1x Oct-05 Telmex do Brasil Ltda Brazil Embratel 104 104 17 6.1x Participacoes SA NA — Not Available Median 5.2x Average 5.1x Argentina Country Risk VALUATION Discount Factor in US$ MM 37% 33% EBITDA(2) 618 Median Multiple 5.2x 5.2x Discount 37% 33% (8) Discounted Multiple 3.3x 3.5x Firm Value 2,033 2,144 Net Debt (253) (3) Equity Value 1,780 1,892 Price per Share (AR (4)(5) 9.65 10.25 ) $ Price per Individual Share (AR$) (4)(6) 0.96 1.03 Price of ADR (AR$) (4)(7) 38.59 41.01 (1) The transaction of CANTV was not taken into consideration for the calculation of the median of the sample. (2) LTM Mar 31, 2009 (3) As of Mar 31, 2009 (4) Converted to AR$ using the exchange rate of June, 23, 2009 of AR$/US$ 3.79 (5) Price of 10 shares of nominal value of AR$ 0.1 each. (6) Price of 1 share of nominal value of AR$ 0.1. (7) Calculated as 4 times the price of 10 shares of nominal value of AR$ 0.1 each. (8) The Argentine country risk discount factor was estimated to adjust the Latin American multiples for the higher Argentina country risk. 7