10-Q 1 cgi-q2.htm BODY OF FORM 10-Q

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

 

FORM 10-Q

 

[X] Quarterly Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d)

of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

 

For the quarterly period ended June 30, 2005

 

or

 

[   ] Transition Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d)

of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

 

Commission File Number 001-13672

 

THE COMMERCE GROUP, INC.

(Exact name of registrant as specified in our charter)

 

Massachusetts

04-2599931

(State or other jurisdiction

(IRS Employer

of Incorporation)

Identification No.)

 

211 Main Street, Webster, Massachusetts

01570

(Address of principal executive offices)

(Zip Code)

 

Registrant's telephone number, including area code: (508) 943-9000

 

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days.    Yes   X     No  ___

 

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an accelerated filer (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act).    Yes   X     No  ___

 

As of July 30, 2005, the number of shares outstanding of the Registrant's common stock (excluding Treasury Shares) was 33,605,776.

<PAGE>

The Commerce Group, Inc.

 

Table of Contents

 

Part I - Financial Information

 

Page No.

Item 1. Financial Statements

 
   

Consolidated Balance Sheet at June 30, 2005 (Unaudited) and December 31, 2004

3

Consolidated Statement of Earnings and Comprehensive Income for the Three

 

    and Six Months ended June 30, 2005 and 2004 (Unaudited)

4

Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows and Reconciliation of Net Earnings to Cash

 

    from Operating Activities for the Six Months Ended June 30, 2005

 

    and 2004 (Unaudited)

5

Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements

6

   

Item 2. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Results of Operations

 

            and Financial Condition

 
   

Business Overview

13

Results of Operations

15

Financial Condition

21

Forward-Looking Statements

23

   

Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk

24

   

Item 4. Controls and Procedures

24

   

Part II - Other Information

 
   

Item 1. Legal Proceedings

24

   

Item 2. Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds

25

   

Item 4. Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders

25

   

Item 5. Other Information

25

   

Item 6. Exhibits

26

   

Signature

26

<PAGE>  2

Part I - Financial Information

 

Item 1.  Financial Statements

 

The Commerce Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Consolidated Balance Sheet

June 30, 2005 and December 31, 2004

(Thousands of Dollars)

 
 

2005

 

2004

 


 


ASSETS

(Unaudited)

   

Investments:

     

    Fixed maturities, at market (amortized cost: $1,804,618 and $1,674,849)

$1,820,794 

 

$1,692,523 

    Preferred stocks, at market (cost: $514,512 and $421,247)

516,673 

 

422,344 

    Common stocks, at market (cost: $74,340 and $74,865)

76,278 

 

81,433 

    Preferred stock mutual funds, at equity (cost: $62,698 and $54,653)

72,115 

 

61,429 

    Mortgage loans on real estate and collateral notes receivable (less allowance

     

      for possible loan losses of $353 and $372)

16,607 

 

14,735 

    Cash and cash equivalents

79,192 

 

220,988 

    Other investments, at equity (cost: $48,658 and $48,588)

34,837 

 

34,281 

 


 


        Total investments

2,616,496 

 

2,527,733 

Accrued investment income

20,221 

 

18,643 

Premiums receivable (less allowance for doubtful receivables of $2,254)

496,327 

 

457,928 

Deferred policy acquisition costs

184,979 

 

163,645 

Property and equipment, net of accumulated depreciation

56,174 

 

53,757 

Residual market receivable

220,576 

 

193,618 

Due from reinsurers

138,398 

 

133,328 

Deferred income taxes

46,212 

 

43,372 

Current income taxes

1,841 

 

Other assets

23,504 

 

18,372 

 


 


        Total assets

$3,804,728 

 

$3,610,396 

 


 


       

LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY

     

Liabilities:

     

    Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses

$1,016,042 

 

$   990,260 

    Unearned premiums

1,002,638 

 

902,566 

    Bonds payable ($300,000 face less discount)

298,286 

 

298,186 

    Current income taxes

 

5,115 

    Deferred income

10,969 

 

9,906 

    Accrued agents' profit sharing

102,666 

 

109,432 

    Other liabilities and accrued expenses

144,002 

 

173,649 

 


 


        Total liabilities

2,574,603 

 

2,489,114 

 


 


Minority interest

5,555 

 

5,126 

 


 


Stockholders' equity:

     

    Preferred stock, authorized 5,000,000 shares at $1.00 par value

 

    Common stock, authorized 100,000,000 shares at $.50 par value, 40,865,276

     

      and 40,728,715 shares issued

20,433 

 

20,364 

    Paid-in capital

145,460 

 

134,943 

    Net accumulated other comprehensive income, net of income taxes

     

      of $7,067 and $8,833

13,125 

 

16,403 

    Retained earnings

1,265,768 

 

1,169,009 

 


 


        Total stockholders' equity before treasury stock

1,444,786 

 

1,340,719 

    Treasury stock, 7,262,571 and 7,405,966 shares, at cost

(220,216)

 

(224,563)

 


 


        Total stockholders' equity

1,224,570 

 

1,116,156 

 


 


    Total liabilities, minority interest and stockholders' equity

$3,804,728 

 

$3,610,396 

 


 


       

The accompanying notes are an integral part of these consolidated financial statements.

<PAGE>  3

The Commerce Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Consolidated Statement of Earnings and Comprehensive Income

Three and Six Months Ended June 30, 2005 and 2004

(Thousands of Dollars, Except Per Share Data)

(Unaudited)

 

Three Months

Six Months



2005

2004

2005

2004

 


 


 


 


Revenues:

             

    Direct premiums written

$482,347 

 

$467,986 

 

$ 991,012 

 

$ 966,573 

    Assumed premiums

51,226 

 

43,492 

 

89,244 

 

77,570 

    Ceded premiums

(70,344)

 

(65,719)

 

(135,263)

 

(120,710)

 


 


 


 


        Net premiums written

463,229 

 

445,759 

 

944,993 

 

923,433 

    Increase in unearned premiums

(35,437)

 

(41,248)

 

(93,999)

 

(123,354)

 


 


 


 


        Earned premiums

427,792 

 

404,511 

 

850,994 

 

800,079 

    Net investment income

31,233 

 

27,894 

 

60,320 

 

55,709 

    Premium finance and service fees

7,042 

 

7,021 

 

14,245 

 

14,065 

    Net realized investment gains (losses)

12,291 

 

(8,602)

 

20,604 

 

11,857 

    Other income

11 

 

113 

 

15 

 

113 

 


 


 


 


        Total revenues

478,369 

 

430,937 

 

946,178 

 

881,823 

 


 


 


 


               

Expenses:

             

    Losses and loss adjustment expenses

270,737 

 

276,506 

 

549,895 

 

558,688 

    Policy acquisition costs

111,679 

 

98,200 

 

212,051 

 

190,424 

    Interest expense and amortization of bond fees

4,608 

 

4,512 

 

9,127 

 

9,095 

 


 


 


 


        Total expenses

387,024 

 

379,218 

 

771,073 

 

758,207 

 


 


 


 


               

Earnings before income taxes and minority interest

91,345 

 

51,719 

 

175,105 

 

123,616 

    Income taxes

28,574 

 

14,152 

 

54,062 

 

34,904 

 


 


 


 


Earnings before minority interest

62,771 

 

37,567 

 

121,043 

 

88,712 

    Minority interest in net earnings of subsidiary

(209)

 

(177)

 

(443)

 

(282)

 


 


 


 


NET EARNINGS

$  62,562 

 

$  37,390 

 

$ 120,600 

 

$   88,430 

 


 


 


 


               

Comprehensive income (loss)

$  84,352 

 

$ (20,915)

 

$ 117,322 

 

$   37,526 

 


 


 


 


Net earnings per common share:

             

    Basic

$      1.86 

 

$      1.14 

 

$       3.60 

 

$       2.72 

 


 


 


 


    Diluted

$      1.85 

 

$      1.14 

 

$       3.56 

 

$       2.70 

 


 


 


 


               

Cash dividends paid per common share

$      0.38 

 

$      0.33 

 

$       0.71 

 

$       0.65 

 


 


 


 


               

Weighted average number of common shares

             

  outstanding:

             

    Basic

33,593,815 

 

32,684,245 

 

33,528,637 

 

32,484,585 

 


 


 


 


    Diluted

33,895,166 

 

32,906,206 

 

33,857,269 

 

32,692,519 

 


 


 


 


               

The accompanying notes are an integral part of these consolidated financial statements.

<PAGE>  4

The Commerce Group, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows and Reconciliation

of Net Earnings to Cash from Operating Activities

Six Months Ended June 30, 2005 and 2004

(Thousands of Dollars)

(Unaudited)

 
 

2005

 

2004

 


 


Operating activities:

     

    Premiums collected

$    875,863 

 

$    835,721 

    Net investment income received

57,906 

 

52,878 

    Premium finance and service fees received

14,245 

 

14,065 

    Losses and loss adjustment expenses paid

(535,697)

 

(508,497)

    Policy acquisition costs paid

(235,059)

 

(216,526)

    Federal income tax payments

(62,256)

 

(55,553)

    Interest paid

(8,925)

 

(8,925)

    Other income

15 

 

113 

 


 


        Cash from operating activities

106,092 

 

113,276 

 


 


       

Investing activities:

     

    Investment sales, repayments and maturities

959,499 

 

1,249,518 

    Mortgage loans and collateral notes receipts

1,925 

 

2,418 

    Investment purchases

(1,183,990)

 

(1,494,175)

    Mortgage loans and collateral notes originated

(3,778)

 

(800)

    Property and equipment purchases

(6,676)

 

(4,211)

    Other investing activities

2,632 

 

4,104 

 


 


        Cash for investing activities

(230,388)

 

(243,146)

 


 


       

Financing activities:

     

    Dividends paid to stockholders

(23,841)

 

(21,164)

    Capital stock issued

2,182 

 

11,699 

    Outstanding checks payable

4,159 

 

(1,958)

    Bond issue costs

 

(454)

 


 


        Cash for financing activities

(17,500)

 

(11,877)

 


 


       

Decrease in cash and cash equivalents

(141,796)

 

(141,747)

Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period

220,988 

 

215,541 

 


 


Cash and cash equivalents at end of period

$      79,192 

 

$      73,794 

 


 


       

Reconciliation of net earnings to cash from operating activities:

     

    Net earnings

$    120,600 

 

$      88,430 

    Adjustments to reconcile net earnings to cash from operating activities:

     

        Premiums receivable

(55,087)

 

(84,579)

        Deferred policy acquisition costs

(21,334)

 

(20,770)

        Residual market receivable

(26,959)

 

(29,649)

        Due from reinsurers

(5,070)

 

(6,870)

        Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses

25,782 

 

57,911 

        Unearned premiums

100,072 

 

132,695 

        Current income taxes

(10,605)

 

(21,881)

        Deferred income taxes

2,411 

 

1,232 

        Deferred income

1,063 

 

1,186 

        Accrued agents' profit sharing

(6,766)

 

(4,097)

        Net realized investment gains

(20,604)

 

(11,857)

        Stock option exercises

12,751 

 

18,952 

        Other - net

(10,162)

 

(7,427)

 


 


            Cash from operating activities

$    106,092 

 

$    113,276 

 


 


       

The accompanying notes are an integral part of these consolidated financial statements

<PAGE>  5

1.    Organization and Interim Financial Statements

 

      Unless otherwise stated, "we," "our" or "us" means The Commerce Group, Inc. and its subsidiaries. Our consolidated financial statements include the accounts of The Commerce Group, Inc. and its subsidiaries. The Commerce Group, Inc. is a holding company and our operations are conducted through subsidiaries, the principal ones being The Commerce Insurance Company (Commerce), Citation Insurance Company (Citation), American Commerce Insurance Company (American Commerce), and Commerce West Insurance Company (Commerce West). We have eliminated significant intercompany accounts and transactions in consolidating these financial statements. Also, we have reclassified certain amounts for 2004 to conform with 2005 presentations.

 

      We have prepared these financial statements in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United State of America (GAAP). In preparing these financial statements in conformity with GAAP, we are required to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities at reporting dates and the reported amounts of revenues and expenses during the reporting periods. Actual results will differ from these estimates and assumptions. We employ significant estimates and assumptions in the determination of unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses (LAE), the potential impairment of investments for other-than-temporary declines in market value and accrued agents' profit sharing. Our significant accounting policies are presented in the notes to our consolidated financial statements in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2004.

 

      Our interim financial statements do not include all of the disclosures required by GAAP for annual financial statements. In our opinion, we have included all adjustments, consisting of normal, recurring adjustments, considered necessary for a fair statement of the results for the interim period. Operating results for the three and six month periods ended June 30, 2005 are not necessarily indicative of the results that may be expected for the year ending December 31, 2005. We usually experience greater claim losses in the first quarter of the year than during the other quarters of the year due to the winter weather. These unaudited consolidated financial statements should be read in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2004.

 

2.    Stock-Based Compensation

 

      Pro forma net earnings as if we had applied the fair value method of accounting for our stock-based compensation plans accounted for under the intrinsic value method for the six months ended June 30, 2004 is $87,978. Pro forma diluted and basic earnings per share under this assumption are $2.71 and $2.69, respectively, for the six months ended June 30, 2004. There is no related pro forma effect for the three and six month periods ended June 30, 2005 and for the three months ended June 30, 2004. All awards accounted for under the intrinsic value method were earned as of the end of the first quarter of 2004; therefore, no additional expense was required after the first quarter of 2004.

 

3.    Comprehensive Income

 

      Our comprehensive income for the three and six months ended June 30, 2005 and 2004 follows:

 

Three Months

Six Months



2005

2004

2005

2004

 


 


 


 


Net earnings

$62,562 

 

$ 37,390 

 

$120,600 

 

$ 88,430 

 


 


 


 


Other comprehensive income, net of taxes:

             

    Change in unrealized gains (losses)(a)

24,671 

 

(51,706)

 

3,522 

 

(36,664)

    Reclassification adjustment(b)

(2,881)

 

(6,599)

 

(6,800)

 

(14,240)

 


 


 


 


Other comprehensive income (loss)

21,790 

 

(58,305)

 

(3,278)

 

(50,904)

 


 


 


 


Comprehensive income (loss)

$84,352 

 

$(20,915)

 

$117,322 

 

$ 37,526 

 


 


 


 


               

_________________________

a.  

Unrealized gains (losses) are net of income tax expenses (benefits) of $13,284 and $(27,790) for the three months ended 2005 and 2004, respectively, and $1,896 and $(19,699) for the six months ended 2005 and 2004, respectively.

   

b.  

Reclassification adjustments are net of income tax benefits of $(1,552) and $(3,553) for the three months ended 2005 and 2004, respectively, and $(3,662) and $(7,668) for the six months ended 2005 and 2004, respectively.

<PAGE>  6

4.    Earnings Per Share (EPS)

 

      Basic EPS is based on the weighted average number of common shares outstanding. Diluted EPS is based on the weighted average number of common shares outstanding adjusted by the number of additional common shares that would have been outstanding had the potentially dilutive common shares been issued and reduced by the number of common shares we could have purchased from the proceeds of the potentially dilutive shares. Our only dilutive instruments are stock options outstanding. We had 2,124,158 and 3,050,259 stock options outstanding at June 30, 2005 and 2004, respectively. Our outstanding stock options at June 30, 2005 consisted of 17,448 stock options which were granted to our employees under our Incentive Compensation Plan; the remainder of the total outstanding stock options at June 30, 2005 consisted of American Commerce agents' options. Basic and diluted EPS for the three and six months ended June 30, 2005 and 2004 follow:

 

Three Months

Six Months



2005

2004

2005

2004

 


 


 


 


Net earnings for basic and diluted EPS

$  62,562

 

$  37,390

 

$120,600

 

$  88,430

 


 


 


 


Common share information:

             

    Average shares outstanding for basic EPS

33,593,815

 

32,684,245

 

33,528,637

 

32,484,585

    Dilutive effect of stock options

301,351

 

221,961

 

328,632

 

207,934

 


 


 


 


    Average shares outstanding for dilutive EPS

33,895,166

 

32,906,206

 

33,857,269

 

32,692,519

 


 


 


 


               

Basic EPS

$      1.86

 

$      1.14

 

$      3.60

 

$      2.72

 


 


 


 


Diluted EPS

$      1.85

 

$      1.14

 

$      3.56

 

$      2.70

 


 


 


 


               

      Diluted EPS excludes stock options with exercise prices greater than the average market price of our common stock during the periods, because their inclusion would be anti-dilutive; there were no such options for the three and six months ended June 30, 2005. There were 1,575,000 anti-dilutive options for the three and six months ended June 30, 2004.

 

5.    Realized and Unrealized Investment Gains and Losses

 

Realized Investment Gains and Losses

 

      Net realized investment gains (losses) for the three and six months ended June 30, 2005 and 2004 follow:

 

Three Months

Six Months



2005

2004

2005

2004

 


 


 


 


Other-than-temporary impairment losses:

             

Fixed maturity securities

$     (150)

 

$         - 

 

$     (159)

 

$  (1,565)

Equity securities

(1,789)

 

 

(3,804)

 

(203)

 


 


 


 


    Total other-than-temporary impairment losses

(1,939)

 

 

(3,963)

 

(1,768)

 


 


 


 


Transaction net gains (losses):

             

Fixed maturity securities

7,648 

 

(6,387)

 

18,016 

 

3,270 

Equity securities

738 

 

3,236 

 

1,971 

 

12,182 

Venture capital funds

894 

 

696 

 

1,122 

 

696 

Other investments

 

(8)

 

330 

 

(196)

 


 


 


 


    Transaction net gains (losses)

9,288 

 

(2,463)

 

21,439 

 

15,952 

 


 


 


 


Equity in earnings (losses) of closed-end

             

  preferred stock mutual funds

3,276 

 

(5,259)

 

2,641 

 

(3,146)

Equity in venture capital funds

1,666 

 

(880)

 

487 

 

819 

 


 


 


 


    Net realized investment gains (losses)

$ 12,291 

 

$(8,602)

 

$ 20,604 

 

$ 11,857 

 


 


 


 


<PAGE>  7

Unrealized Investment Gains and Losses

 

      The change in net unrealized gains on our fixed maturity and equity securities, excluding the impact of minority interest, from December 31, 2004 to June 30, 2005 follows:

 
 

June 30,

 

December 31,

   
 

2005

 

2004

 

Change

 


 


 


Net unrealized gains:

         

Fixed maturity securities

$16,175

 

$17,674

 

$(1,499)

Equity securities

4,099

 

7,665

 

(3,566)

 


 


 


    Net unrealized gains

$20,274

 

$25,339

 

$(5,065)

 


 


 


           

      Gross unrealized losses on our equity and fixed maturity securities at June 30, 2005 by duration of unrealized loss follow:

 
     

0-6

 

7-12

 

13-24

 

Over 24

 

Total

 

Months

 

Months

 

Months

 

Months

 


 


 


 


 


Total equity and fixed maturity securities:

                 

    Number of positions

268 

 

136 

 

95 

 

30 

 

 


 


 


 


 


    Total fair value

$1,183,413 

 

$680,243 

 

$372,146 

 

$125,938 

 

$5,086 

    Total amortized cost

1,200,637 

 

688,822 

 

378,356 

 

128,345 

 

5,114 

 


 


 


 


 


Unrealized loss

$     (17,224)

 

$    (8,579)

 

$    (6,210)

 

$    (2,407)

 

$     (28)

 


 


 


 


 


Unrealized loss percentage to fair value

1.5% 

 

1.3% 

 

1.7% 

 

1.9% 

 

0.6% 

 


 


 


 


 


                   

Equity securities:

                 

    Number of positions

64 

 

44 

 

13 

 

 

 


 


 


 


 


    Total fair value

$   251,310 

 

$202,750 

 

$  43,770 

 

$       628 

 

$4,162 

    Total cost

256,017 

 

206,101 

 

45,046 

 

684 

 

4,186 

 


 


 


 


 


    Unrealized loss

$     (4,707)

 

$    (3,351)

 

$    (1,276)

 

$         (56)

 

$     (24)

 


 


 


 


 


Unrealized loss percentage to fair value

1.9% 

 

1.7% 

 

2.9% 

 

8.9% 

 

0.6% 

 


 


 


 


 


                   

Total fixed maturity securities:

                 

    Number of positions

204 

 

92 

 

82 

 

27 

 

 


 


 


 


 


    Total fair value

$   932,103 

 

$477,493 

 

$328,376 

 

$125,310 

 

$   924 

    Total amortized cost

944,620 

 

482,721 

 

333,310 

 

127,661 

 

928 

 


 


 


 


 


    Unrealized loss

$     (12,517)

 

$    (5,228)

 

$    (4,934)

 

$    (2,351)

 

$       (4)

 


 


 


 


 


Unrealized loss percentage to fair value

1.3% 

 

1.1% 

 

1.5% 

 

1.9% 

 

0.4% 

 


 


 


 


 


                   

      We determined that the impairments of the securities represented in the above gross unrealized loss table are temporary, based on a review of the credit quality, duration and severity of the unrealized losses for our impaired securities. Gross unrealized losses for equity and fixed maturity securities have increased from $14,340 at December 31, 2004 primarily due to general market conditions. We currently intend to hold to recovery or maturity all of our temporarily impaired equity and fixed maturity securities, respectively.

<PAGE>  8

6.    Unpaid Losses and LAE

 

      Liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses at June 30, 2005 and December 31, 2004 follow:

 
 

June 30,

 

December 31,

 

2005

 

2004

 


 


       

Net voluntary unpaid losses and LAE

$   793,661 

 

$783,159 

Voluntary salvage and subrogation recoverable

(97,080)

 

(97,218)

Assumed unpaid loss and LAE reserves from CAR(a)

174,081 

 

167,502 

Assumed salvage and subrogation recoverable from CAR

(23,317)

 

(23,317)

 


 


    Total voluntary and assumed unpaid loss and LAE reserves

847,345 

 

830,126 

Adjustment for ceded unpaid loss and LAE reserves

177,697 

 

169,134 

Adjustment for ceded salvage and subrogation recoverable

(9,000)

 

(9,000)

 


 


    Total unpaid losses and LAE

$1,016,042 

 

$990,260 

 


 


       

(a)   Commonwealth Automobile Reinsurers

 

7.    Bonds Payable

 

      On December 9, 2003, we issued $300,000 face value of senior unsecured and unsubordinated debt (the Senior Notes) which matures December 9, 2013. The Senior Notes were issued at 99.3% to yield 6.04%, and bear a coupon interest rate of 5.95%, payable semi-annually on June 9 and December 9 beginning 2004. The fair market value of the Senior Notes at June 30, 2005 was estimated to be $314,370.

 

8.    Ceded Reinsurance Recoverable

 

      Ceded reinsurance recoverable amounts, which include amounts ceded to CAR and other unaffiliated reinsurers, are included in unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses and unearned premiums. At June 30, 2005 and December 31, 2004, $168,697 and $160,134 were included in unpaid losses and loss adjustment expense amounts, respectively. At June 30, 2005 and December 31, 2004, $137,713 and $131,639 were included in the unearned premium liability amounts, respectively.

 

9.    Reinsurance

 

      Quota Share Reinsurance

 

      On June 30, 2005, our 70% one-year quota share reinsurance program expired. This program was extended another year, effective July 1, 2005, with the primary change in terms being an increase in the quota share rate to 75%.

 

      FAIR Plan

 

      Our insurance subsidiaries are required to participate in various Property Insurance Underwriting Associations, the most significant of which is the Fair Access to Insurance Requirements Plan (FAIR Plan) in Massachusetts. The federal government reinsures those insurers participating in FAIR Plans against losses sustained from riots and civil disorders. The Massachusetts FAIR Plan has coastal exposures which could be significant and could result in losses which could be material to the FAIR Plan and participating insurance companies. The Massachusetts FAIR Plan does not purchase catastrophe reinsurance; consequently, we have exposure from our proportionate share of catastrophic events.

 

      Effective July 1, 2005, we have a one-year Catastrophe Treaty for our exposure to FAIR Plan losses in excess of $100,000 up to a total FAIR Plan loss of $1,000,000 (gross). We have purchased 6% of this treaty, which will afford us recovery of $54,000 excess of a $6,000 retention, if the FAIR Plan should suffer a $1,000,000 or greater loss. The estimated 250-year probable maximum loss for the FAIR Plan is approximately $1,000,000.

 

10.  Contingencies Related to Our Business in Massachusetts

 

      Member companies of CAR have joint and several liabilities for the obligations of CAR, the Massachusetts-mandated personal automobile reinsurance mechanism that enables us and other Servicing Carriers to reinsure in CAR any risk. If one member of CAR fails to pay its assessments, the remaining members of CAR will be required to pay the pro-rata

<PAGE>  9

share of the member who fails to pay its obligations. As of June 30, 2005, we were not aware of any CAR member company which has failed to meet its obligations.

 

11.  Legal Proceedings

 

      As is common with property and casualty insurance companies, we are a defendant in various legal actions arising from the normal course of our business, including claims based on the Massachusetts Unfair Claims Settlement Practices Act, or Chapter 176D and the Massachusetts Consumer Protection Act, or Chapter 93A. Similar provisions exist in other states where we do business. These proceedings are considered ordinary to operations or without foundation in fact. We believe that these actions will not have a material adverse effect on our consolidated financial position.

 

Attorney General Challenge to 2004 Rates

 

      On January 5, 2004, the Massachusetts Attorney General (AG) filed an appeal with the Supreme Judicial Court of Massachusetts arguing that the Massachusetts Division of Insurance (DOI) "wrongly imposed a 2.5% increase" in average personal automobile premiums for 2004. In November 2004, the Supreme Judicial Court of Massachusetts (SJC) rejected the AG's appeal in part and instructed the DOI to revisit rates for bodily injury coverage. The DOI reviewed the bodily injury rate issue as remanded by the SJC and affirmed its original conclusion as stated in the 2004 rate decision. As a result, the appeal of the 2004 rate decision is concluded.

 

CAR Regulatory Reform

 

      As disclosed in our Form 10-Q filed for the period ended March 31, 2005, we had previously filed an action in Suffolk Superior Court asking the Court to determine whether the Final Reform Proposal approved by the Massachusetts Commissioner of Insurance on December 31, 2004, was consistent with Massachusetts law.

 

      On June 20, 2005, the Court ruled that the Commissioner did not have the statutory authority to issue the Final Reform Proposal. The Court's ruling annuls the Commissioner's order, vacates the Final Reform Proposal, and establishes that an assigned risk plan cannot be created without the approval of the Massachusetts Legislature. We cannot determine if the Commissioner will appeal within the allowed 60-day period.

 

      Also as disclosed in our March 31, 2005 Form 10-Q, the Commissioner has not yet established 2005 values for CAR Rules 11 and 12, which adjust a company's market share to determine its ultimate participation in the results of the 2005 CAR deficit. In light of the Court's decision, the Massachusetts Division of Insurance set July 29, 2005 as the deadline for submission of briefs and additional testimony on the values for CAR Rules 11 and 12. The final 2005 Rules 11 and 12 values will impact the size of our participation ratio, the financial costs and benefits of retaining and ceding risks, and the size of the 2005 CAR deficit, especially if carriers are permitted to retroactively reverse their previously made 2005 voluntary versus cede decisions. As such, and until such time as these values are determined, we will continue to utilize our market share as the estimate of our participation in the 2005 CAR deficit.

 

Governor's Reform Proposal

 

      The Massachusetts Governor has introduced legislation intended to reform the Massachusetts automobile insurance system. Among other things, this proposed legislation would give the Commissioner the authority to create an assigned risk plan and allow for the gradual phase-in of competitively set personal automobile rates. We cannot determine at this time whether the Governor's reform proposal will be acted on by the Legislature or, if passed, how it may affect our financial condition and results of operations.

 

AAA Arizona

 

      In AAA Arizona, Inc. v. American Commerce Insurance Company (United States District Court for the District of Arizona), originally filed on May 16, 2005, AAA Arizona alleges, among other claims, that American Commerce has violated its contract with AAA Arizona by failing to pay approximately $1.7 million in profit sharing that AAA Arizona claims to have earned during 2004. AAA Arizona also alleges that American Commerce is interfering with AAA Arizona's relationship with policyholders. AAA Arizona seeks an order from the court and an award of actual and consequential damages. American Commerce intends to vigorously defend this action, unless a reasonable settlement appears appropriate.

 

12.  Segments

 

      Selected segment information for the three and six months ended June 30, 2005 and 2004 follows. Earnings are before income taxes and include minority interest.

<PAGE>  10

 

Revenue

 

Earnings

 

Assets

 


 


 


Three Months Ended 2005:

         

Property and casualty insurance:

         

    Massachusetts

$420,459 

 

$  99,487 

 

$3,395,260

    Other than Massachusetts

58,219 

 

4,083 

 

355,152

Real estate and commercial lending

109 

 

109 

 

17,049

Corporate and other

(418)

 

(12,543)

 

37,267

 


 


 


    Consolidated

$478,369 

 

$  91,136 

 

$3,804,728

 


 


 


Three Months Ended 2004:

         

Property and casualty insurance:

         

    Massachusetts

$370,814 

 

$  66,252 

 

$2,995,465

    Other than Massachusetts

59,910 

 

(2,687)

 

310,829

Real estate and commercial lending

190 

 

190 

 

15,482

Corporate and other

23 

 

(12,213)

 

42,745

 


 


 


    Consolidated

$430,937 

 

$  51,542 

 

$3,364,521

 


 


 


Six Months Ended 2005:

         

Property and casualty insurance:

         

    Massachusetts

$828,496 

 

$183,768 

 

$3,395,260

    Other than Massachusetts

118,200 

 

12,076 

 

355,152

Real estate and commercial lending

291 

 

291 

 

17,049

Corporate and other

(809)

 

(21,473)

 

37,267

 


 


 


    Consolidated

$946,178 

 

$174,662 

 

$3,804,728

 


 


 


Six Months Ended 2004:

         

Property and casualty insurance:

         

    Massachusetts

$760,794 

 

$134,809 

 

$2,995,465

    Other than Massachusetts

120,599 

 

14,341 

 

310,829

Real estate and commercial lending

400 

 

400 

 

15,482

Corporate and other

30 

 

(26,216)

 

42,745

 


 


 


    Consolidated

$881,823 

 

$123,334 

 

$3,364,521

 


 


 


           

Premium Results

 

      Direct premiums written and earned for the three months ended June 30, 2005 and 2004 follow:

 

2005

2004

$ Change

% Change

 


 


 


 


Massachusetts Direct Premiums Written:

             

Personal automobile

$350,346

 

$337,177

 

$13,169 

 

3.9%

Commercial automobile

25,217

 

25,255

 

(38)

 

(0.2)%

Homeowners

34,760

 

30,985

 

3,775 

 

12.2%

Other lines

10,572

 

10,989

 

(417)

 

(3.8)%

 


 


 


   

    Massachusetts direct premiums written

420,895

 

404,406

 

16,489 

 

4.1%

 


 


 


   

Other than Massachusetts Direct Premiums Written:

             

Personal automobile

46,579

 

48,905

 

(2,326)

 

(4.8)%

Commercial automobile

2,467

 

2,545

 

(78)

 

(3.1)%

Homeowners

12,059

 

11,816

 

243 

 

2.1%

Other lines

347

 

314

 

33 

 

10.5%

 


 


 


   

    Other than Massachusetts direct premiums written

61,452

 

63,580

 

(2,128)

 

(3.3)%

 


 


 


   

    Total direct premiums written

$482,347

 

$467,986

 

$14,361 

 

3.1%

 


 


 


   

Massachusetts Direct Earned Premiums:

             

Personal automobile

$331,816

 

$308,054

 

$23,762 

 

7.7%

Commercial automobile

23,523

 

23,123

 

400 

 

1.7%

Homeowners

31,173

 

26,799

 

4,374 

 

16.3%

Other lines

9,676

 

9,302

 

374 

 

4.0%

 


 


 


   

    Massachusetts direct earned premiums

396,188

 

367,278

 

28,910 

 

7.9%

 


 


 


   

Other than Massachusetts Direct Earned Premiums:

             

Personal automobile

48,776

 

50,136

 

(1,360)

 

(2.7)%

Commercial automobile

2,347

 

2,082

 

265 

 

12.7%

Homeowners

10,682

 

9,607

 

1,075 

 

11.2%

Other lines

313

 

272

 

41 

 

15.1%

 


 


 


   

    Other than Massachusetts direct earned premiums

62,118

 

62,097

 

21 

 

0.03%

 


 


 


   

    Total direct earned premiums

$458,306

 

$429,375

 

$28,931 

 

6.7%

 


 


 


   

<PAGE>  11

      Direct premiums written and earned for the six months ended 2005 and 2004 follow:

 

2005

2004

$ Change

% Change

 


 


 


 


Massachusetts Direct Premiums Written:

             

Personal automobile

$734,807

 

$714,221

 

$20,586 

 

2.9%

Commercial automobile

50,795

 

52,237

 

(1,442)

 

(2.8)%

Homeowners

60,278

 

52,918

 

7,360 

 

13.9%

Other lines

19,700

 

20,057

 

(357)

 

(1.8)%

 


 


 


   

    Massachusetts direct premiums written

865,580

 

839,433

 

26,147 

 

3.1%

 


 


 


   

Other than Massachusetts Direct Premiums Written:

             

Personal automobile

97,999

 

101,093

 

(3,094)

 

(3.1)%

Commercial automobile

5,106

 

4,706

 

400 

 

8.5%

Homeowners

21,683

 

20,792

 

891 

 

4.3%

Other lines

644

 

549

 

95 

 

17.3%

 


 


 


   

    Other than Massachusetts direct premiums written

125,432

 

127,140

 

(1,708)

 

(1.3)%

 


 


 


   

    Total direct premiums written

$991,012

 

$966,573

 

24,439 

 

2.5%

 


 


 


   

Massachusetts Direct Earned Premiums:

             

Personal automobile

$661,596

 

$608,203

 

$53,393 

 

8.8%

Commercial automobile

47,052

 

45,668

 

1,384 

 

3.0%

Homeowners

61,818

 

52,841

 

8,977 

 

17.0%

Other lines

19,478

 

18,343

 

1,135 

 

6.2%

 


 


 


   

    Massachusetts direct earned premiums

789,944

 

725,055

 

64,889 

 

8.9%

 


 


 


   

Other than Massachusetts Direct Earned Premiums:

             

Personal automobile

97,503

 

100,044

 

(2,541)

 

(2.5)%

Commercial automobile

4,613

 

4,055

 

558 

 

13.8%

Homeowners

21,282

 

18,777

 

2,505 

 

13.3%

Other lines

612

 

512

 

100 

 

19.5%

 


 


 


   

    Other than Massachusetts direct earned premiums

124,010

 

123,388

 

622 

 

0.5%

 


 


 


   

    Total direct earned premiums

$913,954

 

$848,443

 

$65,511 

 

7.7%

 


 


 


   
               

13.  Incentive Awards

 

      In May 2005, the Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors authorized, under the 2002 Incentive Compensation Plan, the grant of Incentive Awards to officers and directors in lieu of book value awards which were granted in the past. Incentive Awards entitle officers and directors to cash payments at a specified settlement date, subject to certain specified conditions. The 2005 Incentive Award Agreement is substantially the same as the previously granted Book Value Award Agreement. The cash payment is based on cumulative net earnings per basic share of common stock over a three-year period, except for certain early retirement and change in control circumstances. In May 2005, 1,075,948 Incentive Awards were issued to officers and 90,593 awards were issued to directors. For the three months ended June 30, 2005, we recorded $3,465 expense for all Incentive Awards issued in the quarter. Expenses related to book value awards granted in May 2004 and recorded for the three months ended June 30, 2004 were $3,604.

 

14.  Significant Changes Since December 31, 2004

 

Unearned Premiums

 

      Unearned premiums increased $100,072, or 11.1%, since December 31, 2004. This was primarily due to an increase in personal automobile written premiums coupled with the seasonality of the policy effective dates. The total amount of a policy's premium is recorded as written premium on the first day the policy is effective; however, the policy premium is earned ratably over the ensuing year.

 

Item 2.  Management's Discussion and Analysis of Results of Operations and Financial Condition

 

Unless otherwise stated, "we," "our" or "us" means The Commerce Group, Inc. and its subsidiaries. "Commerce" refers to The Commerce Insurance Company, "Commerce West" refers to Commerce West Insurance Company, "American Commerce" refers to American Commerce Insurance Company, "Citation" refers to Citation Insurance Company, and "AHC" refers to ACIC Holding Co., Inc. In addition, unless otherwise stated, all references to "quarters ended" are for our fiscal quarter, beginning April 1 and ending June 30, and dollar amounts are in thousands, except per share data.

<PAGE>  12

      The purpose of the following discussion and analysis is to provide you with information that will assist you in understanding our financial condition and results of operations as reported in our consolidated financial statements. Therefore, the following should be read in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements in this Form 10-Q and with our Management's Discussion and Analysis of Results of Operations and Financial Condition in our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2004.

 

Business Overview

 

      We provide personal and commercial property and casualty insurance primarily in Massachusetts and in other states. Our core product lines are personal automobile, homeowners, and commercial automobile. We market our products exclusively through our network of independent agents in all states, except California, where we use agents and brokers. Our primary business strategy is to focus on the personal automobile insurance market in Massachusetts and to grow and diversify by increasing the proportion of our business written in other states in which we currently have a significant presence, primarily from Commerce West and American Commerce.

 

      We manage our business in four reportable segments: property and casualty insurance - Massachusetts, property and casualty insurance - other than Massachusetts, real estate and commercial lending, and corporate and other.

 

      Our ability to capitalize on our business strengths and implement our strategies is subject to particular risks. For example, because we are primarily a personal automobile insurance carrier, adverse developments in this industry could negatively affect us more than insurers that are more diversified across multiple business lines. Additionally, the concentration of our business in Massachusetts makes us more susceptible to any adverse development in the prevailing legislative, regulatory, economic, demographic, competitive and other conditions, including weather-related events, and adverse judicial decisions in Massachusetts, and could make it more costly or difficult for us to conduct our business. Our affinity group marketing programs provide members of participating groups and associations with a convenient means of purchasing discounted private passenger automobile insurance. We would lose a significant avenue for offering our existing affinity group discounts and our sales of personal automobile and homeowner insurance products in Massachusetts would likely decline if our affinity relationship with the AAA Clubs of Massachusetts is substantially changed or terminated and we are unable to devise and implement effective mitigation measures. These AAA arrangements have rolling three-year terms, and a Massachusetts AAA Club may terminate the agreement upon a minimum of two years' written notice. American Commerce has relationships with various AAA Clubs outside of Massachusetts, which are not subject to any minimum advance notice to terminate. As further explained in this Form 10-Q, we have been notified by AAA Arizona that it has terminated its relationship with American Commerce. If American Commerce's relationship with one or more other large AAA clubs terminates, then American Commerce could lose a substantial portion of its business, which could have a material adverse effect on our business and results of operations.

 

Commonwealth Automobile Reinsurers

 

      A significant aspect of our automobile insurance business relates to our interaction with Commonwealth Automobile Reinsurers (CAR). CAR is a reinsurance mechanism mandated in Massachusetts, which enables us and the other participating servicing carriers to reinsure any automobile risk that they perceive to be under-priced. Since its inception, CAR has annually generated significant underwriting losses, primarily in the personal automobile pool. All companies writing automobile insurance in Massachusetts share in the underwriting results of CAR business for their respective product line or lines.

 

      Member companies of CAR have joint and several liabilities for the obligations of CAR. If one member of CAR fails to pay its assessments, the remaining members of CAR will be required to pay the pro-rata share of the member who fails to pay its obligations. As of June 30, 2005, we were not aware of any current CAR member company which has failed to meet its obligations.

 

CAR Regulatory Reform

 

      As disclosed in our Form 10-Q filed for the period ended March 31, 2005, we had previously filed an action in Suffolk Superior Court asking the Court to determine whether the Final Reform Proposal approved by the Massachusetts Commissioner of Insurance on December 31, 2004, was consistent with Massachusetts law.

 

      On June 20, 2005, the Court ruled that the Commissioner did not have the statutory authority to issue the Final Reform Proposal. The Court's ruling annuls the Commissioner's order, vacates the Final Reform Proposal, and establishes

<PAGE>  13

that an assigned risk plan cannot be created without the approval of the Massachusetts Legislature. We cannot determine if the Commissioner will appeal within the allowed 60-day period.

 

      Also as disclosed in our March 31, 2005 Form 10-Q, the Commissioner has not yet established 2005 values for CAR Rules 11 and 12, which adjust a company's market share to determine its ultimate participation in the results of the 2005 CAR deficit. In light of the Court's decision, the Massachusetts Division of Insurance kept the record open for submission of briefs and additional testimony on the values for CAR Rules 11 and 12 until July 29, 2005. The Commissioner will determine the values for CAR Rules 11 and 12. The CAR Governing Committee previously recommended values for Rules 11 and 12 to the Commissioner and a hearing was held thereon. If the recommended values had been used, we estimate that our private passenger participation percentage for policy year 2005 would have been approximately 26.3%. The final 2005 Rules 11 and 12 values will impact the size of our participation ratio, the financial costs and benefits of retaining and ceding risks, and the size of the 2005 CAR deficit, especially if carriers are permitted to retroactively reverse their previously made 2005 voluntary versus cede decisions. As such, and until such time as these values are determined, we will continue to utilize our market share as the estimate of our participation in the 2005 CAR deficit.

 

      Our share of the losses from CAR for 2005 will depend on the amount of losses generated in CAR for the 2005 policy year. We are unable to determine the amount of loss that CAR will experience in 2005. However, if the CAR loss for policy year 2005 equaled the CAR policy year 2004 loss amount developed through June 30, 2005, our share of the CAR loss using our year-end market share of 29.0% as our participation ratio, instead of our 2004 policy year participation ratio of 23.2%, would have increased by $14,958.

 

Our Revenues and Expenses

 

      Our revenue principally reflects:

 

*

earned premiums, consisting of:

-

premiums that we receive from sales by independent agents of our property and casualty insurance policies, primarily personal automobile, homeowners and commercial automobile, which we refer to as direct premiums written, plus

-

premiums we receive from insurance policies that we assume, primarily CAR, which we refer to as assumed premiums, less

-

the portion of our premiums that is ceded to CAR and other reinsurers, which we refer to as ceded premiums, less

-

the change in the portion of premiums that will not be recognized as income for accounting purposes until a future period, which we refer to as unearned premiums;

*

investment income that we earn on our invested assets;

*

premium finance charges and service fee income that we earn in connection with the billing and deferral of premium payments; and

*

realized investment gains and losses.

      Our expenses principally reflect:

 

*

incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses (which we sometimes refer to as LAE) plus losses and LAE assumed from CAR, including estimates for losses incurred during the period but not yet reported to us and changes in estimates from prior periods related to direct and assumed business, less the portion of those incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses that are ceded to CAR and other insurers; and

*

policy acquisition costs, including agent compensation and general and administrative costs, such as salaries and benefits, and advertising that are not deferred for accounting purposes to a future period, along with expenses assumed from CAR less expense allowances received from CAR.

<PAGE>  14

Our Performance Measures

 

      We evaluate our operations by monitoring key measures of growth and profitability. We measure our growth by examining our direct premiums written as well as increases in exposures and policies. We generally measure our operating results in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP) by examining our net earnings, return on equity (ROE), and our loss and LAE, underwriting expense and combined ratios on a consolidated basis. Our key measures include:

 

*

Return on Equity. Return on equity is net earnings divided by stockholders' equity at the beginning of the period.

*

Direct Premiums Written. Direct premiums written is the sum of the total policy premiums, net of cancellations, associated with policies underwritten and issued by our insurance subsidiaries. We use direct premiums written, which includes premiums that we cede to CAR and other reinsurers, as a measure of the underlying growth of our insurance business from period to period.

*

Direct Earned Premiums. Direct earned premiums are the portion of direct premiums written over the preceding twelve-month period equal to the expired portion of policies and recognized as income during an accounting period.

*

Investment Income. Investment income represents earnings on our investment portfolio. We rely on after-tax investment income as a significant source of net earnings since we generally achieve a combined ratio (see below) of slightly less than 100%.

*

Loss and LAE Ratio. The loss and LAE ratio is the percentage of losses and loss adjustment expenses (including corporate expenses) incurred to earned premiums. We calculate this ratio net of our reinsurance recoveries. We use this ratio as a measure of the overall underwriting profitability of the insurance business we write and to assess the adequacy of our pricing.

*

Underwriting Expense Ratio. The underwriting expense ratio is the percentage of underwriting expenses (including corporate expenses) incurred to net premiums written. Underwriting expenses are the aggregate of policy acquisition costs, including commissions, and the portion of administrative, general and other expenses attributable to underwriting operations. In addition, underwriting expenses are grossed-up for any change in deferred acquisition costs.

*

Combined Ratio. The combined ratio is the sum of the loss and LAE ratio and the underwriting expense ratio and measures a company's overall underwriting profit. If the combined ratio is 100% or more, an insurance company cannot be profitable without investment income, and may not be profitable if investment income is insufficient. We use the combined ratio in evaluating our overall underwriting profitability and for comparing our profitability to our competitors' profitability.

Results of Operations for the Periods Ended June 30, 2005 and 2004

 

Consolidated Results

 

      Our key operating measures for the three and six months ended June 30, 2005 and 2004 follow:

 

Three Months

Six Months



2005

2004

2005

2004

 


 


 


 


               

      Diluted earnings per share

$1.85

 

$1.14

 

$3.56

 

$2.70

      Return on equity

5.4%

 

3.8%

 

10.8%

 

9.7%

      Direct premiums written

$482,347

 

$467,986

 

$991,012

 

$966,573

      Direct earned premiums

$458,306

 

$429,375

 

$913,954

 

$848,443

      Net investment income

$31,233

 

$27,894

 

$60,320

 

$55,709

               

      Loss and LAE ratio

63.3%

 

68.4%

 

64.6%

 

69.8%

      Underwriting expense ratio

26.3%

 

23.3%

 

24.7%

 

22.9%

 


 


 


 


      Combined ratio

89.6%

 

91.7%

 

89.3%

 

92.7%

 


 


 


 


<PAGE>  15

      The increase in diluted earnings per share is primarily due to a decrease in our loss ratio partially offset by an increase in our underwriting expense ratio. Diluted EPS also benefited in 2005 from increases in net realized investment gains of $20,893 for the quarter and $8,747 year-to-date over the comparable 2004 periods. The primary reasons for the increase in our underwriting expense ratio are a significant increase in our agents' profit sharing expense and a slight increase in 2005 policy year mandated personal automobile commission rates in Massachusetts. The increase in agents' profit sharing expense is a result of substantially better underwriting results for the first six months of 2005 versus the first six months of 2004. The quarterly and year-to-date decrease in our loss and LAE ratio is due to:

 

*

an increase in average earned premium revenue per automobile;

*

a decrease in the current year personal automobile bodily injury claim frequency;

*

more favorable loss reserve development compared to 2004; and

*

improved current year results and continued favorable prior years' loss development from CAR.

 

The year-to-date decrease in our loss and LAE ratio was partially offset by an increase in the physical damage claim frequency which primarily occurred during the first quarter of 2005.

 

      The improved results from CAR over the past few quarters have resulted from favorable loss development on the business assumed from CAR. Favorable loss development occurs when actual loss payments are less than the estimated payments that are built into the loss reserves. Actuarial data provided by CAR indicates that this favorable development should continue for the next several quarters.

 

Premium Results

 

      We evaluate our performance and allocate resources based primarily on our property and casualty insurance segments, which represent nearly all of our total revenues. Direct premiums written and earned for the quarters ended June 30, 2005 and 2004 follow:

 

2005

2004

$ Change

% Change

 


 


 


 


Massachusetts Direct Premiums Written:

             

Personal automobile

$350,346

 

$337,177

 

$13,169 

 

3.9%

Commercial automobile

25,217

 

25,255

 

(38)

 

(0.2)%

Homeowners

34,760

 

30,985

 

3,775 

 

12.2%

Other lines

10,572

 

10,989

 

(417)

 

(3.8)%

 


 


 


   

    Massachusetts direct premiums written

420,895

 

404,406

 

16,489 

 

4.1%

 


 


 


   

Other than Massachusetts Direct Premiums Written:

             

Personal automobile

46,579

 

48,905

 

(2,326)

 

(4.8)%

Commercial automobile

2,467

 

2,545

 

(78)

 

(3.1)%

Homeowners

12,059

 

11,816

 

243 

 

2.1%

Other lines

347

 

314

 

33 

 

10.5%

 


 


 


   

    Other than Massachusetts direct premiums written

61,452

 

63,580

 

(2,128)

 

(3.3)%

 


 


 


   

    Total direct premiums written

$482,347

 

$467,986

 

$14,361 

 

3.1%

 


 


 


   

Massachusetts Direct Earned Premiums:

             

Personal automobile

$331,816

 

$308,054

 

$23,762 

 

7.7%

Commercial automobile

23,523

 

23,123

 

400 

 

1.7%

Homeowners

31,173

 

26,799

 

4,374 

 

16.3%

Other lines

9,676

 

9,302

 

374 

 

4.0%

 


 


 


   

    Massachusetts direct earned premiums

396,188

 

367,278

 

28,910 

 

7.9%

 


 


 


   

Other than Massachusetts Direct Earned Premiums:

             

Personal automobile

48,776

 

50,136

 

(1,360)

 

(2.7)%

Commercial automobile

2,347

 

2,082

 

265 

 

12.7%

Homeowners

10,682

 

9,607

 

1,075 

 

11.2%

Other lines

313

 

272

 

41 

 

15.1%

 


 


 


   

    Other than Massachusetts direct earned premiums

62,118

 

62,097

 

21 

 

0.03%

 


 


 


   

    Total direct earned premiums

$458,306

 

$429,375

 

$28,931 

 

6.7%

 


 


 


   

<PAGE>  16

      Direct premiums written and earned for the six months ended June 30, 2005 and 2004 follow:

 

2005

2004

$ Change

% Change

 


 


 


 


Massachusetts Direct Premiums Written:

             

Personal automobile

$734,807

 

$714,221

 

$20,586 

 

2.9%

Commercial automobile

50,795

 

52,237

 

(1,442)

 

(2.8)%

Homeowners

60,278

 

52,918

 

7,360 

 

13.9%

Other lines

19,700

 

20,057

 

(357)

 

(1.8)%

 


 


 


   

    Massachusetts direct premiums written

865,580

 

839,433

 

26,147 

 

3.1%

 


 


 


   

Other than Massachusetts Direct Premiums Written:

             

Personal automobile

97,999

 

101,093

 

(3,094)

 

(3.1)%

Commercial automobile

5,106

 

4,706

 

400 

 

8.5%

Homeowners

21,683

 

20,792

 

891 

 

4.3%

Other lines

644

 

549

 

95 

 

17.3%

 


 


 


   

    Other than Massachusetts direct premiums written

125,432

 

127,140

 

(1,708)

 

(1.3)%

 


 


 


   

    Total direct premiums written

$991,012

 

$966,573

 

24,439 

 

2.5%

 


 


 


   

Massachusetts Direct Earned Premiums:

             

Personal automobile

$661,596

 

$608,203

 

$53,393 

 

8.8%

Commercial automobile

47,052

 

45,668

 

1,384 

 

3.0%

Homeowners

61,818

 

52,841

 

8,977 

 

17.0%

Other lines

19,478

 

18,343

 

1,135 

 

6.2%

 


 


 


   

    Massachusetts direct earned premiums

789,944

 

725,055

 

64,889 

 

8.9%

 


 


 


   

Other than Massachusetts Direct Earned Premiums:

             

Personal automobile

97,503

 

100,044

 

(2,541)

 

(2.5)%

Commercial automobile

4,613

 

4,055

 

558 

 

13.8%

Homeowners

21,282

 

18,777

 

2,505 

 

13.3%

Other lines

612

 

512

 

100 

 

19.5%

 


 


 


   

    Other than Massachusetts direct earned premiums

124,010

 

123,388

 

622 

 

0.5%

 


 


 


   

    Total direct earned premiums

$913,954

 

$848,443

 

$65,511 

 

7.7%

 


 


 


   
               

Massachusetts Segment

 

      Growth in personal automobile direct premiums written was the primary factor in the 2005 quarterly and year-to-date increases. For the quarter ended 2005, it accounted for approximately 80%, and year-to-date it accounted for approximately 79% of the total increase in Massachusetts direct premiums written. Personal automobile business growth for the quarter ended 2005 was the result of a 0.6% increase in average written premium per written exposure coupled with a 3.1% increase in the number of exposures written. Personal automobile growth year-to-date was the result of a 0.7% increase in average written premium per written exposure coupled with a 2.1% increase in the number of exposures written in 2005. The agents assigned to us by CAR accounted for 62.0% of the year-to-date increase and 43.3% of the quarterly increase in the number of exposures written in 2005. We believe that voluntary agents are currently very cautious regarding moving books of business between carriers at this point in time due to the uncertainties created by CAR reforms proposed in 2004 and 2005.

 

      The 2005 decrease in commercial auto year-to-date direct premiums written was due to a 2.3% decrease in average premium per policy coupled with a slight decrease in the number of policies. Average premium per policy has declined due to more competitive pricing in a softening market. Our homeowners growth for the quarter ended 2005 was from a 10.4% increase in average premium per policy, partially offset by a 1.2% decrease in the number of policies. Year-to-date homeowners growth in 2005 resulted from an 11.7% increase in average premium per policy, partially offset by a 1.8% decrease in the number of policies.

 

2006 Massachusetts Premium Rates

 

      In fixing the classifications of risks and establishing personal automobile rates in Massachusetts, the Commissioner of Insurance must consider numerous factors, including driver and automobile characteristics, the claim rate in the state's designated geographical territories, and the industry's loss ratio. These factors are based upon data primarily for the 2004 calendar year supplemented by trending data from previous years. We expect the Commissioner to reduce personal automobile premium rates for calendar year 2006 policies, based on the industry's profitable underwriting results for calendar year 2004.

<PAGE>  17

Other than Massachusetts Segment

 

      The overall decrease in personal automobile direct written premiums for the quarter and year-to-date periods in 2005 is primarily due to a decline in the number of policies, partially offset by a slight increase in average premium per policy. In general, we are lowering rates in the states in which we write business in response to competitive pressures. Quarterly and year-to-date growth in homeowners in 2005 was due to additional rate per policy, partially offset by a slight decrease in the number of policies.

 

Our Business in Arizona

 

      AAA Arizona, Inc. has stopped writing new business with American Commerce. AAA Arizona was American Commerce's largest agent in terms of direct written premium produced, having generated $22,544 in direct written premium in the first six months of 2005, representing 23.9% of American Commerce's total direct written premium and 2.3% of our consolidated total direct written premium. AAA Arizona generated $25,041 in direct written premium for the comparable 2004 period, or 26.1% of American Commerce's total direct written premium and 2.6% of our consolidated total direct written premium. American Commerce will continue to write business in Arizona through independent agents but will no longer market its products through AAA Arizona. Commerce West began writing business in Arizona through independent agencies in early 2005. Through June 30, 2005, American Commerce continued to provide renewal policies through AAA Arizona. Beginning in July 2005, for renewals effective in August 2005, American Commerce is offering renewal quotes directly to insureds as required by Arizona law. We are uncertain about the number of policies that will remain with American Commerce. At this time, we are not able to estimate the impact of these events on our Arizona writings.

 

Net Investment Income

 

      Key measures of net investment income for the quarters ended June 30, 2005 and 2004 follow:

 
 

2005

 

2004

 

Change

 


 


 


Average month-end investments (at cost)

$2,611,000

 

$2,263,706

 

$347,294

Net investment income, before tax

31,233

 

27,894

 

3,339

Net investment income, after tax

24,004

 

21,991

 

2,013

Net investment income as an annualized percentage of average

         

  net investments (at cost), before tax

4.8%

 

4.9%

 

(2.0)%

Net investment income as an annualized percentage of average

         

  net investments (at cost), after tax

3.7%

 

3.9%

 

(5.1)%

           

      Key measures of net investment income for the six months ended June 30, 2005 and 2004 follow:

 
 

2005

 

2004

 

Change

 


 


 


Average month-end investments (at cost)

$2,601,626

 

$2,236,460

 

$365,166

Net investment income, before tax

60,320

 

55,709

 

4,611

Net investment income, after tax

46,620

 

44,002

 

2,618

Net investment income as an annualized percentage of average

         

  net investments (at cost), before tax

4.6%

 

5.0%

 

(8.0)%

Net investment income as an annualized percentage of average

         

  net investments (at cost), after tax

3.6%

 

3.9%

 

(7.7)%

           

      The increases in our net investment income were primarily due to increased invested assets partially offset by lower yields on our municipal and corporate bonds and preferred stock. The decline in yields corresponds with the duration reduction of our portfolio of fixed maturity securities in 2005 in which we sold higher yielding securities and replaced them with lower yielding securities. Our duration at June 30, 2005 was 4.1 years compared to 5.6 years at year-end 2004. The increase in invested assets is primarily attributable to proceeds from operating cash flows.

<PAGE>  18

Realized Investment Gains and Losses

 

      Net realized investment gains (losses) for the quarters ended 2005 and 2004 follow:

 
 

2005

 

2004

 

Change

 


 


 


Other-than-temporary impairment losses:

         

Fixed maturity securities

$    (150)

 

$         - 

 

$    (150)

Equity securities

(1,789)

 

 

(1,789)

 


 


 


    Total other-than-temporary impairment losses

(1,939)

 

 

(1,939)

 


 


 


Transaction net gains (losses):

         

Fixed maturity securities

7,648 

 

(6,387)

 

14,035 

Equity securities

738 

 

3,236 

 

(2,498)

Venture capital funds

894 

 

696 

 

198 

Other investments

 

(8)

 

16 

 


 


 


    Transaction net gains (losses)

9,288 

 

(2,463)

 

11,751 

 


 


 


Equity in earnings (losses) of closed-end preferred stock mutual funds

3,276 

 

(5,259)

 

8,535 

Equity in venture capital funds

1,666 

 

(880)

 

2,546 

 


 


 


    Net realized investment gains (losses)

$12,291 

 

$(8,602)

 

$20,893 

 


 


 


           

      The increase in net realized gains in the quarter ended 2005 versus the quarter ended 2004 was due in great part to the strong performance of the bond market as 10-year yields fell from 4.5% on March 31 of 2005 to 3.9% on June 30 of 2005. During the same period in 2004, 10-year yields rose from 4.6% to 4.9%. This year we used the significant rally in long term bonds to realize gains while shortening overall portfolio duration.

 

      Net realized investment gains (losses) for the six months ended June 30, 2005 and 2004 follow:

 
 

2005

 

2004

 

Change

 


 


 


Other-than-temporary impairment losses:

         

Fixed maturity securities

$    (159)

 

$ (1,565)

 

$   1,406 

Equity securities

(3,804)

 

(203)

 

(3,601)

 


 


 


    Total other-than-temporary impairment losses

(3,963)

 

(1,768)

 

(2,195)

 


 


 


Transaction net gains (losses):

         

Fixed maturity securities

18,016 

 

3,270 

 

14,746 

Equity securities

1,971 

 

12,182 

 

(10,211)

Venture capital funds

1,122 

 

696 

 

426 

Other investments

330 

 

(196)

 

526 

 


 


 


    Transaction net gains

21,439 

 

15,952 

 

5,487 

 


 


 


Equity in earnings (losses) of closed-end preferred stock mutual funds

2,641 

 

(3,146)

 

5,787 

Equity in venture capital funds

487 

 

819 

 

(332)

 


 


 


    Net realized investment gains

$20,604 

 

$11,857 

 

$   8,747 

 


 


 


           

      The improvement in net realized investment gains during the six months ended June 30, 2005 was principally due to strong bond market performance and stronger performance in our closed-end preferred stock mutual fund which we account for under the equity method of accounting. Our bond market realized gains came from a number of different sectors and were a result of both favorable interest rates during certain parts of the period as well as strong performance in certain industry specific and security specific investments.

 

<PAGE>  19

Unrealized Investment Losses

 

      Gross unrealized losses on our equity and fixed maturity securities at June 30, 2005 by duration of unrealized loss follow:

 
     

0-6

 

7-12

 

13-24

 

Over 24

 

Total

 

Months

 

Months

 

Months

 

Months

 


 


 


 


 


Total equity and fixed maturity securities:

                 

    Number of positions

268 

 

136 

 

95 

 

30 

 

 


 


 


 


 


    Total fair value

$1,183,413 

 

$680,243 

 

$372,146 

 

$125,938 

 

$5,086 

    Total amortized cost

1,200,637 

 

688,822 

 

378,356 

 

128,345 

 

5,114 

 


 


 


 


 


    Unrealized loss

$    (17,224)

 

$   (8,579)

 

$   (6,210)

 

$   (2,407)

 

$    (28)

 


 


 


 


 


Unrealized loss percentage to fair value

1.5%

 

1.3%

 

1.7%

 

1.9%

 

0.6%

 


 


 


 


 


                   

Equity securities:

                 

    Number of positions

64 

 

44 

 

13 

 

 

 


 


 


 


 


    Total fair value

$   251,310 

 

$202,750 

 

$  43,770 

 

$       628 

 

$4,162 

    Total cost

256,017 

 

206,101 

 

45,046 

 

684 

 

4,186 

 


 


 


 


 


    Unrealized loss

$      (4,707)

 

$   (3,351)

 

$   (1,276)

 

$        (56)

 

$    (24)

 


 


 


 


 


Unrealized loss percentage to fair value

1.9%

 

1.7%

 

2.9%

 

8.9%

 

0.6%

 


 


 


 


 


                   

Total fixed maturity securities:

                 

    Number of positions

204 

 

92 

 

82 

 

27 

 

 


 


 


 


 


    Total fair value

$   932,103 

 

$477,493 

 

$328,376 

 

$125,310 

 

$   924 

    Total amortized cost

944,620 

 

482,721 

 

333,310 

 

127,661 

 

928 

 


 


 


 


 


    Unrealized loss

$    (12,517)

 

$   (5,228)

 

$   (4,934)

 

$   (2,351)

 

$      (4)

 


 


 


 


 


Unrealized loss percentage to fair value

1.3%

 

1.1%

 

1.5%

 

1.9%

 

0.4%

 


 


 


 


 


                   

      We determined that the impairments of the securities represented in the above gross unrealized loss table are temporary, based on a review of the credit quality, duration and severity of the unrealized losses for our impaired securities. Gross unrealized losses for equity and fixed maturity securities have increased from $14,340 at December 31, 2004 primarily due to general market conditions. We currently intend to hold to recovery or maturity all of our temporarily impaired equity and fixed maturity securities, respectively.

 

Policy Acquisition Costs

 

      Year-to-date policy acquisition costs increased $21,627, or 11.4%, over the same period a year ago. The increase is primarily due to increases in commissions and agents' profit sharing, offset by an increase in ceded reinsurance commissions. Year-to-date 2005 commissions increased $8,053, or 6.6%, over the same period last year. This increase was due to an increase in direct written premium coupled with a slight increase in the Massachusetts 2005 policy year mandated personal automobile commission rates. Year-to-date 2005 agents' profit sharing increased $22,139, or 135.4%, over the same period last year. This increase resulted from substantially better underwriting results for the first six months of 2005 versus the first six months of 2004. These increases were offset by an increase in ceded reinsurance commissions of $9,880, or 30.0%, for the first six months of 2005 as compared to the same period in 2004. This change resulted primarily from a $7,114, or 35.5%, increase in ceded commissions related to the quota share agreement. The primary reasons for the increase were an increase in homeowners direct written premium, coupled with an increase in the participation percentage of the quota share agreement at July 1, 2004 from 65% to 70%, and significantly better other-than-automobile loss results, which had a favorable impact on the sliding scale commission percentage due the company as compared to the same period last year.

<PAGE>  20

Financial Condition

 

      Our stockholders' equity per share increased 8.8% from $33.50 at December 31, 2004 to $36.44 at June 30, 2005, after dividends paid of $0.71 per share. The market and equity value of our total investments increased 3.5% due to our investing cash from operating and investing activities, partially offset by unrealized losses. Since December 31, 2004, the ratio of our total liabilities to stockholders' equity improved 12.8 percentage points primarily due to net earnings for the six months ended June 30, 2005, partially offset by an 11.1% increase in unearned premiums.

 

      The increase in unearned premiums was primarily due to an increase in personal automobile written premiums coupled with the seasonality of the policy effective dates. The total amount of a policy's premium is recorded as written premium on the first day on which the policy is effective; however, the policy premium is earned ratably over the ensuing year.

 

      Liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses at June 30, 2005 and December 31, 2004 follow:

 
   

June 30,

 

December 31,

   

2005

 

2004

   


 


Net voluntary unpaid losses and LAE

 

$   793,661 

 

$783,159 

Voluntary salvage and subrogation recoverable

 

(97,080)

 

(97,218)

Assumed unpaid loss and LAE reserves from CAR

 

174,081 

 

167,502 

Assumed salvage and subrogation recoverable from CAR

 

(23,317)

 

(23,317)

   


 


    Total voluntary and assumed unpaid loss and LAE reserves

 

847,345 

 

830,126 

Adjustment for ceded unpaid loss and LAE reserves

 

177,697 

 

169,134 

Adjustment for ceded salvage and subrogation recoverable

 

(9,000)

 

(9,000)

   


 


    Total unpaid losses and LAE

 

$1,016,042 

 

$990,260 

   


 


         

      Industry and regulatory guidelines suggest that the ratio of a property and casualty insurer's annual net premiums written to statutory policyholders' surplus should not exceed 3.00 to 1.00. Our twelve-month rolling net premiums written to statutory surplus ratio was 1.26 to 1.00 for the period ended June 30, 2005 and 1.46 to 1.00 for the period ended June 30, 2004.

 

      Effective July 1, 2004, we entered into a 70% quota-share agreement for one year with modified terms. This program covers all non-automobile property and liability business, except umbrella policies. This program was extended another year, effective July 1, 2005, with the primary change in terms being an increase in the quota share rate to 75%. Under the terms of the 75% agreement effective July 1, 2005, in the event of a catastrophe, recovery is limited to 75% of the loss with a maximum recovery estimated at $337,500, equating to a total loss to us of $450,000. There are several limitations in the contract regarding losses related to nuclear, chemical, and biological terrorist events. Our maximum loss recovery in case of these types of events is estimated at $28,000. Our estimated total probable maximum loss, before reinsurance, on our other than automobile business for 100 and 250-year hurricanes is approximately $280,000 and $519,000, respectively. We derived our estimates through the services of Holborn Reinsurance Company on our October 31, 2004 other-than-automobile exposures, which utilized the RMS (Risk Management Solutions) risk assessment system. We believe that most property and casualty insurance companies establish their catastrophe reinsurance programs between the 100-year and 250-year storm estimates.

 

      Our insurance subsidiaries are required to participate in various Property Insurance Underwriting Associations, the most significant of which is the Fair Access to Insurance Requirements Plan (FAIR Plan) in Massachusetts. The federal government reinsures those insurers participating in FAIR Plans against losses sustained from riots and civil disorders. The Massachusetts FAIR Plan has coastal exposures which could be significant and could result in losses which could be material to the FAIR Plan and participating insurance companies. The Massachusetts FAIR Plan does not purchase catastrophe reinsurance; consequently, we have exposure from our proportionate share of catastrophic events.

 

      Effective July 1, 2005, we have a one-year Catastrophe Treaty for our exposure to FAIR Plan losses in excess of $100,000 up to a total FAIR Plan loss of $1,000,000 (gross). We have purchased 6% of this treaty, which will afford us recovery of $54,000 excess of a $6,000 retention, if the FAIR Plan should suffer a $1,000,000 or greater loss. The estimated 250-year probable maximum loss for the FAIR plan is approximately $1,000,000.

<PAGE>  21

Liquidity and Capital Resources

 

      The primary sources of our liquidity are funds generated from insurance premiums, net investment income, premium finance and service fees and the maturing and sale of investments. The primary uses of our liquidity are payment of policy claims, operating costs, interest on our senior notes, and payment of dividends to our stockholders.

 

      In April 2005, Commerce's application to become a member of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Boston was accepted. The FHLB of Boston, which is one of 12 regional FHLBs, serves as a reserve or central bank for its members within its assigned region. The FHLB of Boston makes loans, which are referred to as advances, to members in accordance with policies and procedures established by its board of directors. These policies and procedures are subject to the regulation and oversight of the Federal Housing Finance Board. All advances from the FHLB of Boston to Commerce require Board of Director approval and would be required to be fully secured by sufficient collateral as determined by the FHLB of Boston. Our borrowing capacity is based on the composition of our investment portfolio and its related market values. Consequently, our borrowing capacity changes as our portfolio changes both in composition and value. We have not borrowed from the FHLB of Boston and have no current plans to do so.

 

      We have several technology based projects either in development or expected to be in development within the next 18 months. We anticipate expending for these projects approximately $5,400 during the second and third quarters of 2005 and approximately $1,100 after this year.

 

      We paid significantly more for agent profit sharing in 2005 than we paid in 2004. We paid approximately $18,000 for agent profit sharing in 2004. Due to our excellent underwriting results during 2004, we paid approximately $40,000 in the second quarter of 2005, which we had accrued at December 31, 2004. We estimate paying at least the same amount for agent profit sharing in 2006 as we paid in 2005, subject to our agents' underwriting results in 2005.

 

Investment Strategy and Interest Rate Risk

 

      Our investment strategy emphasizes after-tax investment yield while maintaining overall investment quality. The primary focus of our investment objectives continues to be maximizing after-tax investment income through investing primarily in high-quality diversified fixed income investments structured to maximize after-tax investment income while minimizing risk. We generally invest in securities with maturities intended to provide adequate funds to pay claims and meet other operating needs without the forced sale of investments. When the appropriate opportunity arises, we will recognize investment gains to increase after-tax total return. We held no derivatives, emerging market securities or hedge funds at June 30, 2005 and December 31, 2004.

 

Interest Rate Sensitivity

 

      Our investments include positions in fixed maturity, equity, short-term and cash equivalents markets. Therefore, we are exposed to the impacts of interest rate changes in the market value of investments. We estimated our exposure to interest rate changes and equity price risk at June 30, 2005 using sensitivity analysis. The interest rate impact is the effect of a hypothetical interest rate change of plus-or-minus 200 basis points on the market value of fixed maturities and preferred stocks.

 

      Changes in interest rates would result in unrealized gains or losses in the market value of the fixed maturity and preferred stock portfolio due to differences between current market rates and the stated rates for these investments. The following table summarized our interest rate risk, based on the results of the sensitivity analysis at June 30, 2005.

 
   

Estimated Market

       
   

Value of Fixed

 

Estimated

   
   

Income and

 

Increase

 

Hypothetical Percentage

   

Preferred Stock

 

(Decrease) in

 

Increase (Decrease) in

Hypothetical Change in Interest Rates

 

Investments

 

Market Value

 

Stockholders' Equity (1)


 


 


 


             

200 basis point increase

 

$2,151,788

 

$(185,679)

 

(9.9)%

100 basis point increase

 

  2,247,023

 

    (90,444)

 

(4.8)%

No change

 

  2,337,467

 

-

 

-

100 basis point decrease

 

  2,422,148

 

     84,681

 

 4.5%

200 basis point decrease

 

  2,502,208

 

   164,741

 

 8.7%

             

________________

(1)    Net of income taxes at an assumed rate of 35%.

<PAGE>  22

      Our fixed income portfolio's weighted average duration (which includes all fixed maturities and preferred stocks) as of December 31, 2004 was 5.6 years. The "duration" of a security is the time-weighted present value of the security's expected cash flows and is used to measure a security's price sensitivity to changes in interest rates. The duration reflects industry prepayment assumptions. The analytic systems we used to calculate the above duration data utilize optional call dates, sinking fund requirements and assume a non-static prepayment pattern in deriving these averages. As of June 30, 2005, our weighted average duration has declined to 4.1 years from 5.8 years at June 30, 2004 primarily as a result of sales of securities during the quarter with proceeds invested in shorter duration securities.

 

Forward-Looking Statements

 

      This quarterly report may contain statements that are not historical fact and constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act. Statements about our expectations, beliefs, plans, objectives, assumptions or future events or performance are not historical facts and may be forward-looking. These statements are often, but not always, made through the use of words or phrases such as "anticipates," "estimates," "plans," "projects," "continuing," "ongoing," "expects," "may," "should," "management believes," "we believe," "we intend," and similar words or phrases. These statements may address, among other things, our strategy for growth, business development, regulatory approvals, market position, expenditures, financial results and reserves. Accordingly, these statements involve estimates, assumptions and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in them. All forward-looking statements are qualified in their entirety by reference to the factors discussed throughout this quarterly report and in our recently filed quarterly and annual reports on Forms 10-Q and 10-K, and other documents filed with the SEC. Among the key factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements are:

 

*

the possibility of severe weather and adverse catastrophic experiences;

*

adverse trends in claim severity or frequency;

*

adverse state and federal regulations and legislation;

*

adverse judicial decisions;

*

adverse changes to the laws, regulations and rules governing the residual market system in Massachusetts;

*

interest rate risk;

*

rate making decisions for private passenger automobile policies in Massachusetts;

*

potential rate filings;

*

heightened competition;

*

concentration of business within Massachusetts;

*

termination of Commerce's affinity relationship with AAA Clubs of Massachusetts;

*

market disruption in Massachusetts, if competitors exited the market or become insolvent;

*

termination of American Commerce's relationship with one or more large AAA clubs;

*

dependence on our executive officers; and,

*

the economic, market or regulatory conditions and risks associated with entry into new markets and diversification.

      You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statement. The risk factors referred to above and those included in Part I, Item I of our Form 10-K for 2004, as well as those elsewhere in this quarterly report, could cause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statement made by us or on our behalf. Further, any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is made, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after the date on which the statement is made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. New factors emerge from time to time, and it is not possible for us to predict

<PAGE>  23

which factors will arise. In addition, we cannot assess the impact of each factor on our business or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statements.

Item 3.  Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk

      Refer to "Investment Strategy and Interest Rate Risk" in Item 2, Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations, for the interim period information required by this item.

Item 4.  Controls and Procedures

Evaluation of disclosure controls and procedures

      Under the supervision and with the participation of our management, including our Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer, we evaluated the effectiveness of the design and operation of our disclosure controls and procedures (as defined in Rule 13a-15(e) and 15d-15(e) under the Exchange Act) as of the end of the period covered by this report. Based upon that evaluation, the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer concluded that our disclosure controls and procedures are effective to ensure that information required to be disclosed in the reports that we file or submit under the Exchange Act is recorded, processed, summarized and reported, within the time periods specified in the Securities and Exchange Commission's rules and forms.

Changes in internal control

      There has been no change in our internal control over financial reporting that has occurred during our last fiscal quarter that has materially affected, or is reasonably likely to materially affect, our internal control over financial reporting.

Part II - Other Information

Item 1.  Legal Procedings

CAR Regulatory Reform

      As disclosed in our Form 10-Q filed for the period ended March 31, 2005, we had previously filed an action in Suffolk Superior Court asking the Court to determine whether the Final Reform Proposal approved by the Massachusetts Commissioner of Insurance on December 31, 2004, was consistent with Massachusetts law.

      On June 20, 2005, the Court ruled that the Commissioner did not have the statutory authority to issue the Final Reform Proposal. The Court's ruling annuls the Commissioner's order, vacates the Final Reform Proposal, and establishes that an assigned risk plan cannot be created without the approval of the Massachusetts Legislature. We cannot determine if the Commissioner will appeal within the allowed 60-day period.

      Also as disclosed in our March 31, 2005 Form 10-Q, the Commissioner has not yet established 2005 values for CAR Rules 11 and 12, which adjust a company's market share to determine its ultimate participation in the results of the 2005 CAR deficit. In light of the Court's decision, the Massachusetts Division of Insurance set July 29, 2005 as the deadline for submission of briefs and additional testimony on the values for CAR Rules 11 and 12. The final 2005 Rules 11 and 12 values will impact the size of our participation ratio, the financial costs and benefits of retaining and ceding risks, and the size of the 2005 CAR deficit, especially if carriers are permitted to retroactively reverse their previously made 2005 voluntary versus cede decisions. As such, and until such time as these values are determined, we will continue to utilize our market share as the estimate of our participation in the 2005 CAR deficit.

AAA Arizona

      In AAA Arizona, Inc. v. American Commerce Insurance Company (United States District Court for the District of Arizona), originally filed on May 16, 2005, AAA Arizona alleges, among other claims, that American Commerce has violated its contract with AAA Arizona by failing to pay approximately $1.7 million in profit sharing that AAA Arizona claims to have earned during 2004. AAA Arizona also alleges that American Commerce is interfering with AAA Arizona's

<PAGE>  24

relationship with policyholders. AAA Arizona seeks an order from the court and an award of actual and consequential damages. American Commerce intends to vigorously defend this action, unless a reasonable settlement appears appropriate.

Item 2.  Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds

      In November 2001, our Board of Directors authorized a stock buy-back program to purchase up to 2,000,000 shares of our common stock. During the three months ended June 30, 2005, we did not acquire any of our common stock. There are 858,300 shares that may yet be purchased under our repurchase plan.

Item 4.  Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders

      On May 20, 2005, at our Annual Meeting of stockholders, the number of directors was reduced from 17 to 16 due to the death of an incumbent director. The slate of directors, as presented in the Proxy Statement for the Annual Meeting, except for Mr. Howland, was approved. The votes as tabulated by EquiServe Trust Company follow:

Total Vote

Total Vote for

Withheld from

Each Director

Each Director



Randall V. Becker

29,539,194

   972,905

Joseph A. Borski, Jr.

28,269,973

2,242,126

Eric G. Butler

28,396,657

2,115,442

Henry J. Camosse

28,620,792

1,891,307

Gerald Fels

28,026,555

2,485,544

David R. Grenon

28,572,126

1,939,973

Robert W. Harris

28,618,691

1,893,408

Robert S. Howland(a)

28,623,315

1,888,784

John J. Kunkel

28,619,416

1,892,683

Raymond J. Lauring

28,384,300

2,127,799

Normand R. Marois

28,626,617

1,885,482

Suryakant M. Patel

28,033,521

2,478,578

Arthur J. Remillard, Jr.

28,335,659

2,176,440

Arthur J. Remillard, III

28,308,639

2,203,460

Regan P. Remillard

28,305,519

2,206,580

Gurbachan Singh

28,591,739

1,920,360

John W. Spillane

28,380,616

2,131,483

(a)    Robert S. Howland passed away on May 1, 2005, subsequent to the distribution of the Proxy Statement for the Annual Meeting.

Item 5.  Other Information.

      A summary of the compensation of our directors and the directors of our subsidiaries for their applicable service as directors for 2004 was disclosed in our Proxy Statement which was filed with the SEC on April 15, 2005. Exhibit 10.34 of this Form 10-Q sets forth the new compensation that the Company has agreed to pay the directors for their service as directors for 2005.

      A summary of the annual, long-term and other compensation of our Chief Executive Officer and our other four most highly compensated executive officers (the named executive officers) who were serving as executive officers at December 31, 2004 was disclosed in our Proxy Statement which was filed with the SEC on April 15, 2005. Exhibit 10.35 of this Form 10-Q sets forth the new salaries that the Company has agreed to pay the named executive officers and the new bonuses that the named executive officers are eligible to receive beginning in 2005.

      In May 2005, the Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors authorized, under the 2002 Incentive Compensation Plan, the grant of Incentive Awards to officers and directors in lieu of book value awards which were granted in the past. The 2005 Incentive Award Agreement is substantially the same as the previously granted Book Value Award Agreement. Exhibit 10.36 of this Form 10-Q sets forth a form of this Incentive Award Agreement.

<PAGE>  25

Item 6.  Exhibits

Exhibits:

10.34

The Commerce Group, Inc. Summary of Director Compensation

10.35

The Commerce Group, Inc. Named Executive Officer Salaries and Bonuses

10.36

Form of 2005 Incentive Award Agreement

31.1

CEO Certification Statements under Section 302 of The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002

31.2

CFO Certification Statements under Section 302 of The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002

32

CEO and CFO Certification Statements under Section 906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002

Signature

      Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 as amended, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.

 

THE COMMERCE GROUP, INC.

   
 

/s/ Randall V. Becker

 


 

Randall V. Becker

 

Treasurer and Chief Accounting Officer

Dated: August 2, 2005

 

<PAGE>  26