EX-99 5 nt10016784x3_ex99c8.htm EXHIBIT (C)(8)

Exhibit (c)(8)

 Project Titan | Illustrative Combination AnalysisJuly 2020  Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP  CONFIDENTIAL and Proprietary to Navistar | Do not copy or distribute  NYSE: NAV 
 

 Navistar is Traton’s primary avenue to create the world’s leading commercial vehicle platformOne-of-a-kind platform to launch new products and technologies into US marketDrive significant additional cost synergies, leveraging strong partnership created by AllianceAcquisition of Navistar is an explicit pillar of Traton investor case and is widely expected by the marketPositive investor response would facilitate partial selldown of VW stake at a more attractive valuation ~6-12 months post transaction  Key Observations on the TRATON Acquisition of Navistar  Based on Acquisition Purchase Price of $50 - $60 Per Share, Management Forecast and Low-End Synergies    Strategic Rationale  Financial Profile  EPS Impact  Return on Invested Capital  Balance SheetImpact  Key Issues  Accelerates Traton’s revenue and earnings growth outlook through 2023Improves Traton’s EBIT margins by ~70 basis points by 2023, before synergies (~110 basis points includingsynergies)  Acquisition is over 11% EPS accretive in the first full year of combination (2022) before any synergiesOver 17% accretive including low-end cost and revenue synergy estimates  Year 3 ROIC estimated at ~10-11%Year 5 ROIC estimated at ~12-13%  Traton is likely to preserve its investment grade rating, with some risk of a one-notch downgrade if the transaction isall debt financedPro forma net leverage >2.5x at year-end 2021, returning to ~1.0x by 2023, based on a fully debt financed transactionUse of equity funding (either as consideration or via an offering) could be considered to further strengthen pro forma balance sheet, but Traton / VW likely reticent to issue at its current stock price  Takeover premium implied by purchase prices of $50-60 per share (58-89% premium to current price(1))Elevated transaction EBITDA multiples versus comparable transactions at $50 - $60 per share purchase price  Multiple of 2021E EBITDA pre-synergies: 14.4x – 16.1xMultiple of 2021E EBITDA with low-end run-rate synergies: 8.3x – 9.3x  Traton perspective on synergies and amount that they are willing to commit to with investorsTraton is likely to base their analysis on a haircut to the management caseVolkswagen has several other capital projects, some of which may be more strategically important  (1) Based on Navistar’s share price of $31.72 as of 7/29/20.  Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP    We have reviewed the transaction pro formas based on both the Management Forecast and a Wall Streetresearch consensus case for Navistar.          NYSE: NAV  2  CONFIDENTIAL and Proprietary to Navistar | Do not copy or distribute 
 

 Assumes TRATON acquires the remaining 83% of Navistar for 100% cashNavistar’s manufacturing and financial services debt refinanced atinterest rates of 2.25% and 3.0%, respectively– TRATON bonds currently yield 1.5%Assumes $425mm of run-rate synergies comprised of $265mm of cost synergies and $160mm of earnings on revenue synergies of $951mm with phase-in period and cost to achieve synergies per Navistar management estimates  Run-rate cost synergies achieved in 2025; run-rate revenuesynergies achieved in 2029Represents low end of Navistar management synergy estimates and excludes balance sheet and captive finance synergiesRun-rate represents 5.4% of 2021E Navistar Manufacturingrevenue  Navistar projections per Management ForecastTRATON projections per Wall Street research consensusAnalysis excludes any potential transaction-related amortizationAssumes 12/31/20 transaction close  Sources and Uses / Key Assumptions  Key Assumptions        ($ in millions)  Sources  New TRATON Debt Raised  $6,516  Rolled NAV Pension and OPEB  2,100  NAV Existing Balance Sheet Cash  1,400  TRATON Excess Balance Sheet Cash⁽¹⁾  333  Total Sources  $10,349  Uses  Acquire 83% of NAV Equity @ $55/share  $4,583  Refinance NAV Industrial Debt  3,537  Assumption of NAV Pension and OPEB  2,100  Breakage Costs on NAV Industrial Debt⁽²⁾  79  Transaction Fees and Expenses 50  Total Uses $10,349              Source: Company Filings, Navistar Management Projections, Wall Street Research, Capital IQ.Note: Based on projected December 31st, 2020 balance sheet. Market data as of 7/29/20. EUR / USD exchange rate of 1.18.Assumes TRATON minimum cash balance of €2.0bn as of YE 2020.Based on 107.125% redemption price on Navistar 9.5% Notes due 2025 triggered by a TRATON acquisition and 3.313% make-whole value on Navistar 6.625% Notes due 2025beginning 11/20/20.    Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP  NYSE: NAV  3  CONFIDENTIAL and Proprietary to Navistar | Do not copy or distribute  Illustrative Sources and uses @ $55 per Share 
 

           3.9%  8.4% 8.6%  Standalone  Pro Forma  Pro Forma + Revenue Synergies      20.4%  42.2% 43.5% 44.3%  Standalone  Pro Forma  Synergies  Pro Forma + Cost Pro Forma + Cost  and Revenue Synergies      12.3%  19.6%  20.7% 21.1%  Standalone  Pro Forma  Synergies  Pro Forma + Cost Pro Forma + Cost  and Revenue Synergies  Pro Forma TRATON Financial Profile Based on Navistar Management Forecast   Source: Company Filings, Navistar Management Projections, Wall Street Research, Capital IQ.Note: Based on projected December 31st, 2020 balance sheet. Market data as of 7/29/20. EUR / USD exchange rate of 1.18. Assumes Navistar's low run-rate cost synergy estimate of $265mm and low run-rate earnings on revenue synergy estimate of $160mm, including cost to achieve synergies and phase-in period, per management estimates. Revenue synergies do not begin phase-in until 2022E and exclude captive finance synergies.  Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP    2021E – 2023E Industrial EBITDA Margin  2021E – 2023E Industrial Revenue CAGR  2021E – 2023E Industrial EBITDA CAGR  2021E – 2023E EPS CAGR                10.2%  9.4%  11.5%  10.7%  11.9%  11.5%    2021E – 2023E Industrial EBIT Margin      Standalone    Pro Forma    2022E 2023EPro Forma + Cost and Revenue Synergies  9.6%  11.0%  11.9%  2021E                5.1%  5.1%  6.6%  6.7%  7.0%  7.7%      Standalone    Pro Forma    2022E 2023EPro Forma + Cost and Revenue Synergies  NYSE: NAV  4  CONFIDENTIAL and Proprietary to Navistar | Do not copy or distribute  5.2%  7.0%  8.1%  2021E 
 

 Pro Forma Leverage Impact on TRATON  Source: Company Filings, Navistar Management Projections, Wall Street Research, Capital IQ.Note: Based on projected December 31st, 2020 balance sheet. Market data as of 7/29/20. EUR / USD exchange rate of 1.18.Includes tax-affected pension & OPEB.Assumes Navistar’s low run-rate cost synergy estimate range, including cost to achieve synergies and phase-in period, per management estimates.Assumes Navistar’s low run-rate cost synergy estimate of $265mm and low run-rate earnings on revenue synergy estimate of $160mm, including cost to achieve synergies and phase-in period, permanagement estimates. Revenue synergies do not begin phase-in until 2022E and exclude captive finance synergies.  2022E PF Net Leverage(1)Standalone Current Leverage = 0.9x    NAV Acquisition Stock Price$50.00 $55.00 $60.00  Run-Rate Synergies ($mm)  –(2)$265(3)$425  1.6x 1.7x 1.8x1.5x 1.6x 1.7x1.5x 1.6x 1.7x          Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP  2023E PF Net Leverage(1)Standalone Current Leverage = 0.8x  NAV Acquisition Stock Price$50.00 $55.00 $60.00    Run-Rate Synergies ($mm)  –(2)$265(3)$425  1.0x 1.1x 1.2x0.9x 1.0x 1.1x0.9x 1.0x 1.1x          2022E PF Net Leverage(1)Standalone Current Leverage = 0.9x  NAV Acquisition Stock Price$50.00 $55.00 $60.00  Run-Rate Synergies ($mm)  –(2)$265(3)$425  1.8x 1.9x 2.0x1.7x 1.8x 1.9x1.7x 1.8x 1.9x          2023E PF Net Leverage(1)Standalone Current Leverage = 0.8x  NAV Acquisition Stock Price$50.00 $55.00 $60.00    Run-Rate Synergies ($mm)  –(2)$265(3)$425  1.2x 1.3x 1.4x1.1x 1.2x 1.3x1.1x 1.2x 1.3x          Navistar Management Case  NYSE: NAV  5  CONFIDENTIAL and Proprietary to Navistar | Do not copy or distribute  Navistar Consensus Case 
 

 NAV Acquisition Stock Price$50.00 $55.00 $60.00  Run-Rate Synergies ($mm)  –$265 (1)$425 (2)  12.7% 12.2% 11.4%18.0% 17.4% 16.6%18.5% 18.0% 17.2%  2023E EPS Acc/Dil (%)                2022E EPS Acc/Dil (%)  Source: Company Filings, Navistar Management Projections, Wall Street Research, Capital IQ.Note: Based on projected December 31st, 2020 balance sheet. Market data as of 7/29/20. EUR / USD exchange rate of 1.18.Assumes Navistar’s low run-rate cost synergy estimate range, including cost to achieve synergies and phase-in period, per management estimates.Assumes Navistar’s low run-rate cost synergy estimate of $265mm and low run-rate earnings on revenue synergy estimate of $160mm, including cost to achieve synergies and phase-in period, permanagement estimates. Revenue synergies do not begin phase-in until 2022E and exclude captive finance synergies.    Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP  NAV Acquisition Stock Price$50.00 $55.00 $60.00  Run-Rate Synergies ($mm)  –  13.9%  13.2%  12.8%    (1)$265  21.3%  20.6%  20.2%    (2)$425  22.7%  22.0%  21.6%          2022E EPS Acc/Dil (%)  NAV Acquisition Stock Price$50.00 $55.00 $60.00  Run-Rate Synergies ($mm)  –  0.2%  (0.4%)  (1.2%)    $265 (1)  5.4%  4.9%  4.1%    $425 (2)  6.0%  5.5%  4.6%          2023E EPS Acc/Dil (%)  Pro Forma Accretion / Dilution Impact on TRATON  Navistar Management Case  Navistar Consensus Case  NAV Acquisition Stock Price$50.00 $55.00 $60.00  Run-Rate Synergies ($mm)  –  28.3%  27.6%  27.2%    (1)$265  35.7%  35.0%  34.6%    (2)$425  37.1%  36.4%  36.0%          NYSE: NAV  6  CONFIDENTIAL and Proprietary to Navistar | Do not copy or distribute 
 

 NAV Acquisition Stock Price$50.00 $55.00 $60.00    Run-Rate Synergies ($mm)  –(3)$265(4)$425  3.8%  3.6%  3.4%      4.7%  4.4%  4.2%      4.8%  4.5%  4.3%          NAV Acquisition Stock Price$50.00 $55.00 $60.00    Run-Rate Synergies ($mm)  –  6.3%  6.0%  5.7%    $265 (3)  7.7%  7.3%  6.9%    (4)$425  8.0%  7.5%  7.1%          Based on Navistar Net Operating Profit After Tax, divided by Acquisition Transaction Enterprise Value(1,2)  Illustrative ROIC Analysis  Source: Company Filings, Navistar Management Projections, Wall Street Research, Capital IQ.Note: Based on projected December 31st, 2020 balance sheet. Market data as of 7/29/20. EUR / USD exchange rate of 1.18.NOPAT is calculated before non-service pension expense. Assumes tax rate of 27% per management estimates.Transaction TEV includes net debt of $2,135mm, preferred stock of $2mm, minority interest of $2mm, investment in affiliates of $28mm as per 2020 Q2 filing; Post tax underfunded pension and OPEB of $1,659mm (assumes tax rate of 21%,pre-tax underfunded pension of $1,300mm and pre-tax underfunded OPEB of $800mm as of 04/30/20); PV of NOLs of $300mm.Assumes Navistar’s low run-rate cost synergy estimate of $265mm, including cost to achieve synergies and phase-in period, per management estimates.Assumes Navistar’s low run-rate cost synergy estimate of $265mm and low run-rate earnings on revenue synergy estimate of $160mm, including cost to achieve synergies and phase-in period, permanagement estimates. Analysis excludes captive finance synergies.    Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP  Year 3 ROIC (2023E)  Navistar Management Case  Navistar Consensus Case  Year 2 ROIC (2022E)  NAV Acquisition Stock Price$50.00 $55.00 $60.00            Run-Rate Synergies ($mm)  –  6.3%  6.0%  5.7%    $265 (3)  7.2%  6.8%  6.5%    $425 (4)  7.3%  6.9%  6.6%  NAV Acquisition Stock Price$50.00 $55.00 $60.00            Run-Rate Synergies ($mm)  –  9.4%  8.9%  8.4%    (3)$265  10.8%  10.2%  9.7%    $425 (4)  11.1%  10.5%  9.9%  Year 5 ROIC (2025E)  NAV Acquisition Stock Price$50.00 $55.00 $60.00            Run-Rate Synergies ($mm)  –  10.2%  9.7%  9.2%    (3)$265  12.5%  11.8%  11.2%    $425 (4)  13.2%  12.4%  11.8%  NYSE: NAV  7  CONFIDENTIAL and Proprietary to Navistar | Do not copy or distribute  Year 3 ROIC (2023E)  Year 2 ROIC (2022E) 
 

 Source: Company Filings, Navistar Management Projections.Note: Based on Q2 2020 balance sheet ending 4/30/20.3-month VWAP represents 90-business days.Net debt of $2,038mm, preferred stock of $2mm, minority interest of $2mm, investment in affiliates of $28mm as per 2020 Q2 filing; Post tax underfunded pension and OPEB of $1,659mm (assumes tax rate of 21%, pre-tax underfunded pension of $1,300mm and pre-tax underfunded OPEB of $800mm as of 04/30/20); PV of NOLs of $300mmAssumes Navistar’s low run-rate cost synergy estimate of $265mm and low run-rate earnings on revenue synergy estimate of $160mm, including cost to achieve synergies and phase-in period, permanagement estimates. Excludes captive finance synergies.    Navistar Acquisition Matrix (With and Without Run-Rate Synergies)Based on Navistar Management Forecast  NYSE: NAV  8  CONFIDENTIAL and Proprietary to Navistar | Do not copy or distribute  Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP  ($ in millions, except per share)          Navistar Share Price    $50.00  $55.00  $60.00  Premium to Current of $31.72 as of 7/29/20    57.6%  73.4%  89.2%  Premium to 3-month VWAP of $23.79⁽¹⁾    110.2%  131.2%  152.2%  FDSO (mm)    100.7  100.9  101.0  Implied Equity Value    $5,037  $5,547  $6,058  Plus: Industrial Net Debt and Other⁽²⁾    3,373  3,373  3,373  Implied Enterprise Value    $8,410  $8,920  $9,431  Less: Book Value of FinCo Equity    (617)  (617)  (617)  Implied Manufacturing Enterprise Value    $7,793  $8,303  $8,814  Valuation Multiples          TEV / EBITDA  Metric        2019A  $882  9.5x  10.1x  10.7x  2019A (Incl. $425mm Run-Rate Synergies)⁽³⁾  1,307  6.4x  6.8x  7.2x  2020E  $300  28.0x  29.7x  31.4x  2020E (Incl. $425mm Run-Rate Synergies)⁽³⁾  725  11.6x  12.3x  13.0x  2021E  $585  14.4x  15.2x  16.1x  2021E (Incl. $425mm Run-Rate Synergies)⁽³⁾  1,010  8.3x  8.8x  9.3x  Manufacturing TEV / Manufacturing EBITDAPO          2019A  $810  9.6x  10.3x  10.9x  2019A (Incl. $425mm Run-Rate Synergies)⁽³⁾  1,235  6.8x  7.2x  7.6x  2020E  $227  34.3x  36.5x  38.8x  2020E (Incl. $425mm Run-Rate Synergies)⁽³⁾  652  12.9x  13.7x  14.5x  2021E  $535  14.6x  15.5x  16.5x  2021E (Incl. $425mm Run-Rate Synergies)⁽³⁾  960  8.8x  9.3x  9.8x 
 

     TRATON – Historical share price and key events since the IPO      Share price performance since IPO – June 28, 2019 Commentary  •  •  •  •  •  Traton offered 500 million shares (11.5%) to the market on June 28, 2019 and raised €1.55bnSince September 5th, Traton now trades on both the Stockholm Stock Exchange, and the Frankfurt Stock ExchangeTraton submitted a proposal to acquire all outstanding shares of Navistar not already owned by Traton at a price of ~$2.9bn (i.e. $35 per Navistar share), in an all-cash deal on January 30, 2020Meaningful differences in financial performance between Scania and MAN has been a significant factor in underwhelming share price performance since the IPOMAN is also committed to launching a new truck generation into the market during an imminent negative cycle (coupled with the impact of COVID-19) and management indicated MAN would suffer from high costs and poor profitability for the next year at leastOn July 7th, 2020 the Traton Supervisory Board announced the dismissal of Andreas Renschler as the CEO and he was succeeded by Matthias Grundler    Traton ownership summary  Free float10%  Volkswagen 90%  (indexed to 100)   Source: Equity research, press releases; Factset as of 7/29/2020.                             June 28, 2019: IPO onStockholm Stock Exchange at €27 / share (€13.5bn valuation)  Traton  Navistar                  DAX      September 5, 2019: Traton listed on Frankfurt Stock Exchange  October 1, 2019: Lowest U.S. PMI in 10yrs, triggers sell-off  January 30, 2020: Traton submits bid for Navistar at $35 / share (~$2.9bn) valuation  July 7, 2020: CEO Andres Renschler to step down immediately, will be succeeded by Matthias Grundler  March 11,2020: WHOdeclares COVID-19 a global pandemic      November 11 2019: Traton price stabilizes around €25  NYSE: NAV  9  CONFIDENTIAL and Proprietary to Navistar | Do not copy or distribute  Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP 
 

 TRATON – Equity capital market observations  At present (without a Navistar transaction), VW could do a smaller secondary offering of Traton shares (approximately €500 million)~5.6% of Traton’s current market capitalization of ~€8.9bn as of 07/29/2020Access to a broader equity transaction is constrained by the following themesLimitation on floatLack of cogent equity storyPoor performance of MAN since IPONew management team has yet to unveil strategic initiativesA ~15 – 20% accretive Navistar transaction may incrementally increase the amount of shares that VWcould issue in the secondary market by providing an improved equity storyImproved market share in highly profitable North American marketSignificantly improved margin and cash flow profileMeaningful step in “Global Champion” strategy announced at Traton IPOPost a Navistar transaction, Traton’s will continue to trade at a discount to VolvoTraton will need to execute on a number of priorities to justify a re-rating back to €27 IPO priceNavistar acquisitionMAN profitability improvementsAlterative propulsion / autonomous technologiesGlobal partnerships (Sinotruk / Hino)  Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP  Source: Factset as of 7/29/2020.    NYSE: NAV  10  CONFIDENTIAL and Proprietary to Navistar | Do not copy or distribute 
 

                 Peer benchmarking  Source: Company filings, equity research, Navistar Management Projections.Note: FX rate 1.17 EUR / USD; .115 SEK / USD; All breakdowns per latest annual filing.         Total geographic split by revenue                North America 25%  South America 10%  Europe 49%  Other 16%                  Europe 39%  North America 33%  Africa and Ocenia6%South America 9%  Asia 13%              Europe 66%  South America 13%  Other 21%  /            Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP  FY2019 metrics  Key financials($bn)        Key operatingdata  Truck & Bus units sold (000s)  Total revenue  Total EBIT margin  Truck & Bus revenue  2017-2019 CAGR        Truck & Bus unit sales growth  Adj. TEV / 2021E EBITDAPO        2021 tradingmultiples  NYSE: NAV  11  CONFIDENTIAL and Proprietary to Navistar | Do not copy or distribute  Price / 2021Eearnings  242    329    243  $31.5bn    $42.7bn    $49.7bn            $20.3bn    $28.9bn    $35.4bn            7.0%    6.9%    11.5%            8.7%    12.1%    7.0%            3.4x    -    6.4x            11.1x    -    14.6x 
 

 Traton adj. TEV / 2021E EBITDAPO  3.4x    Volvo TEV / 2021E EBITDAPO  6.4x  Traton adj. 2021E EBITDAPO  $2,783    Traton adj. 2021E EBITDAPO  $2,783  Adj. firm value  $9,576    Implied adj. firm value  $17,813  Industrial net debt & other(1)  $995    Industrial net debt & other(1)  $995  Equity value  $10,571    Implied equity value  $18,808  Diluted shares outstanding (mm)  500.0    Diluted shares outstanding (mm)  500.0  Current price per share ($)  $21.14    Implied price per share ($)  $37.62  Current price per share (€)  €17.96    Implied price per share (€)  €31.95  Illustrative TRATON standalone share price at deal announcement  Source: Company filings, press releases; Factset as of 7/29/2020. Note: FX rate: EUR / USD = 1.18.  $mm, expect per share data  Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP    Adj. TEV / 2021E EBITDAPO  3.4x  €17.96    4.0x  €20.60    4.5x  €22.96    5.0x  €25.43    5.5x  €27.69    6.0x  €30.06    6.4x  €31.95    7.0x  €34.78    TRATON standalone at announcement Share price sensitivity to multiple expansion  Current trading multiple        Current trading multiple    Current price per share    Approximate IPO price per share    ~15-20% share price increase which is in line with illustrative 2022E EPSaccretion    (1) Net debt of $191mm, minority interest of $306mm, investment in associates of $1,655mm, Finco book equity of $1,143mm; Post tax underfunded pension and OPEB of $1,307mm  NYSE: NAV  11  CONFIDENTIAL and Proprietary to Navistar | Do not copy or distribute 
 

             Source: Company filings, press releases; Factset as of 7/29/2020. Note: FX rate: EUR / USD = 1.18.  Assumes Navistar’s low-run revenue synergy estimate of $951mm and Navistar’s low run-rate cost synergy estimate of $265mm and low run-rate earnings on revenue of synergy estimate of$160mm, including cost to achieve synergies and phase-in period, per management estimates. $118mm of synergies phased-in and applied to 2022E.PF net debt of $4,974mm, minority interest of $306mm, investment in associates of $1,655mm, Finco book equity of $1,143mm; Post tax underfunded pension and OPEB of $3,407mm  Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP    TRATON PF for Navistar (100% cash consideration @ $55 per share) Share price sensitivity to multiple expansion  Illustrative TRATON share price pro forma for Navistar transaction  Adj. TEV / 2022E EBITDAPO  2.9x  €11.25    3.4x  €15.21    3.8x  €17.96    4.5x  €22.97    5.0x  €26.64    5.5x  €30.30    6.0x  €33.96    6.4x  €36.90    7.0x  €41.29      $mm, expect per share data        Implied PF adj. TEV / 2022E EBITDAPO  2022ETraton multiple2.9x    Assuminkeepsshare3.8x  g T curr pri  raton ent ceVolvo TEV / EBITDAPO  2022EVolvomultiple4.4x  2021EVolvo multiple 6.4x  PF adj. 2022E EBITDAPO(1)  $4,314    $4,314    PF adj. 2022E EBITDAPO(1)  $4,314  $4,314  Adj. firm value  $12,511    $16,459    Implied adj. firm value  $18,982  $27,610  Industrial net debt & other(2)  ($5,888)        Industrial net debt & other(2)  ($5,888)    Equity value  $6,623    $10,571    Implied equity value  $13,094  $21,722  Diluted shares outstanding (mm)  500.0        Diluted shares outstanding (mm)  500.0    Price per share ($)  $13.25    $21.14    Implied price per share ($)  $26.19  $43.44  Price per share (€)  €11.25    €17.96    Implied price per share (€)  €22.24  €36.90    Current price per share    Approximate IPO price per share        2021E Traton multiple  12    NYSE: NAV 
 

 What has to be true for TRATON to trade at Volvo multiple?  Meaningfully improve market share in the highly profitable N.A. truck marketSignificantly increase profitability, margin and cash flow profileIncrease product offering to compete with the strong Volvo extensive portfolioIncrease alternative propulsion technology presence to compete with Volvo electric trucks and fuel cellsystemsExpand global production footprint (particularly in N.A. and APAC)Improve MAN profitability to be more in-line with Scania and diversify MAN’s over-reliance on theGerman marketThe limited ~10.0% free float at Traton today (only ~€0.9bn of market cap) must grow; it is a major obstacle for prospective long-term investors looking to justify a position in Traton  Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP  Source: Company filings, press releases; Factset as of 7/29/2020. Note: FX rate: EUR / USD = 1.18.    NYSE: NAV  13  CONFIDENTIAL and Proprietary to Navistar | Do not copy or distribute 
 

 APPENDIX 
 

 TRATON Financial Assumptions  Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP  Source: Company filings, Wall Street Research. Note: Market data as of 7/29/20.(1) Based on equity research post-June 2020 senior secured Notes offering.  TRATON BALANCE SHEET ASSUMPTIONS (BASED ON 12/31/20E)(€ in millions)  TRATON Financial Summary Forecast(€ in millions)  Industrial Net Debt⁽¹⁾  € 1,375  Investments in Associates  € 1,406  After Tax Pension  1,110  Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding (mm)  500  Minority Interest  260  Tax Rate  27.0%  Financial Services Book Value of Equity  971        2020E  2021E  2022E  2023E  '20E - '23E CAGR      Scania  € 10,934  € 12,286  € 12,871  € 13,191 6.5%  MAN  8,997  10,163  10,715  11,014 7.0%  VWCO  1,001  1,099  1,180  1,214 6.6%  Other  ( 317)  ( 316)  ( 316)  ( 316)  Industrial Sales  € 20,615  € 23,232  € 24,450  € 25,103 6.8%  Financial Services  823  814  804  880  Consolidation  ( 392)  ( 392)  ( 392)  ( 392)  Group Sales  € 21,046  € 23,654  € 24,862  € 25,591 6.7%  % Growth  (21.8%)  12.4%  5.1%  2.9%  Scania  € 723  € 1,203  € 1,351  € 1,442 25.9%  MAN  ( 415)  209  452  502 NM  VWCO  ( 54)  ( 24)  ( 6)  0 NM  Other  ( 150)  ( 200)  ( 181)  ( 180)  Industrial Adj. EBIT  € 104  € 1,188  € 1,616  € 1,764 NM  % Margin  0.5%  5.1%  6.6%  7.0%  Financial Services  108  132  135  148  Consolidation  NA  ( 1)  NA  NA  Group Adj. EBIT  € 212  € 1,319  € 1,751  € 1,912 NM  % Growth  (88.7%)  522.2%  32.8%  9.2%  Industrial D&A  1,122  1,177  1,202  1,219  Group Adj. EBITDA  € 1,334  € 2,496  € 2,953  € 3,131 32.9%  % Margin  6.3%  10.6%  11.9%  12.2%  Industrial Capex  1,399  1,381  1,334  1,294  % of Industrial Revenue  6.8%  5.9%  5.5%  5.2%  Industrial Change in Working Capital  ( 800)  600  61  33  Tax Rate  27.0%  27.0%  27.0%  27.0%  NYSE: NAV  15  CONFIDENTIAL and Proprietary to Navistar | Do not copy or distribute 
 

                                                     Illustrative Pro Forma Acquisition Analysis (Navistar Management Forecast)Assumes $55/NAV Share Transaction with 100% Cash Funding and $425mm of Synergies                          ($ in millions)            Sources    Uses        New TRATON Debt Raised  $6,516  Acquire 83% of NAV Equity @ $55/share      $4,583  Rolled NAV Pension and OPEB  2,100  Refinance NAV Industrial Debt      3,537  NAV Existing Balance Sheet Cash  1,400  Assumption of NAV Pension and OPEB      2,100  TRATON Existing Balance Sheet Cash(1)  333  Breakage Costs on NAV Industrial Debt⁽²⁾      79      Transaction Fees and Expenses      50  Total Sources  $10,349  Total Uses      $10,349  Income Statement Contribution              Standalone 2020E  PF2020E 2021E    2022E  2023E  TRATON Industrial Revenue  $24,262  $24,262 $27,342    $28,775  $29,543  NAV Manufacturing Revenue  –  7,134 7,879    10,376  11,843  (+) Synergies⁽ ³⁾  –  – –    51  161  Total Industrial Revenue  $24,262  $31,396  $35,221  $39,202  $41,547  % Growth  (8.3%)  29.4%  12.2%  11.3%  6.0%  TRATON Industrial EBITDA  1,443  1,443  2,783  3,316  3,511  NAV Manufacturing EBITDAPO  –  227  535  880  1,239  (+) Synergies⁽ ³⁾  –  –  53  118  193  PF Synergized Industrial EBITDA  $1,443  $1,670  $3,372  $4,314  $4,942  % Margin  5.9%  5.3%  9.6%  11.0%  11.9%  PF Consolidated Synergized EBIT⁽⁴⁾  $250  $410  $2,062  $2,989  $3,618  % Margin  1.0%  1.3%  5.9%  7.6%  8.7%  (-) Net Interest Expense From Industrial Debt⁽⁵⁾  (36)  (159)  (144)  (110)  (67)  (-) Net Interest Expense From Financial Services Debt⁽⁵⁾  (427)  (482)  (482)  (482)  (482)  (-)Taxes @ 27.0%⁽⁶⁾  58  90  (360)  (623)  (829)  PF Net Income  ($156)  ($141)  $1,076  $1,775  $2,241  TRATON Shares (mm)  500  500  500  500  500  PF EPS  NA  ($0.28)  $2.15  $3.55  $4.48  TRATON Standalone EPS  ($0.31)  $0.36  $2.27  $3.01  $3.29  % Accretion  –  NM  (5.1%)  18.0%  36.4%  % Accretion (Pre-Synergies)  –  NM  (8.5%)  12.2%  27.6%  PF Net Debt (Incl. Tax-Affected Pension and OPEB)  $2,924  $10,032  $8,686  $7,025  $4,828  PF Net Leverage (Incl. Tax-Affected Pension and OPEB)  –  6.0x  2.6x  1.6x  1.0x  Standalone Net Leverage (Incl. Tax-Affected Pension and OPEB)  –  2.0x  1.1x  0.9x  0.8x  Source: Company Filings, Navistar Management Projections, Wall Street Research, Capital IQ.Note: Based on projected December 31st, 2020 balance sheet. Market data as of 7/29/20. EUR / USD exchange rate of 1.18.  (1)(2)(3)  Assumes TRATON minimum cash balance of €2.0bn as of YE 2020.Based on 107.125% redemption price on Navistar 9.5% Notes due 2025 triggered by a TRATON acquisition and 3.313% make-whole value on Navistar 6.625% Notes due 2025 beginning 11/20/20. Assumes Navistar’s low-run revenue synergy estimate of $951mm and Navistar’s low run-rate cost synergy estimate of $265mm and low run-rate earnings on revenue of synergy estimate of $160mm, including cost to achieve synergies and phase-in period, per management estimates.Includes Financial Services EBIT of Navistar and TRATON.Assumes blended interest rate on Industrial Debt of 2.25% based on TRATON’s senior secured notes raised in June 2020; assumes blended interest rate on Financial Services debt of 3.0%.Tax rate based on TRATON’s company filing. Includes the impact of Navistar’s assumed NOL balance of $300mm. Taxable EBIT reduced by $95mm per year based on the purchase price of Navistar equity multiplied by the tax-exempt rate of 1.89%.  (4)(5)(6)  NYSE: NAV  16  CONFIDENTIAL and Proprietary to Navistar | Do not copy or distribute  Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP 
 

   Standalone 2020E  PF2020E  2021E  2022E  2023E  TRATON Industrial Revenue  $24,262  $24,262  $27,342  $28,775  $29,543  NAV Manufacturing Revenue  –  7,134  7,879  10,376  11,843  (+) Synergies⁽ ³⁾  –  –  –  51  161  Total Industrial Revenue  $24,262  $31,396  $35,221  $39,202  $41,547  % Growth  (8.3%)  29.4%  12.2%  11.3%  6.0%  TRATON Industrial EBITDA  1,443  1,443  2,783  3,316  3,511  NAV Manufacturing EBITDAPO  –  227  535  880  1,239  (+) Synergies⁽ ³⁾  –  –  53  118  193  PF Synergized Industrial EBITDA  $1,443  $1,670  $3,372  $4,314  $4,942  % Margin  5.9%  5.3%  9.6%  11.0%  11.9%  PF Consolidated Synergized EBIT⁽⁴⁾  $250  $410  $2,062  $2,989  $3,618  % Margin  1.0%  1.3%  5.9%  7.6%  8.7%  (-) Net Interest Expense From Industrial Debt⁽⁵⁾  (36)  (123)  (107)  (73)  (29)  (-) Net Interest Expense From Financial Services Debt⁽⁵⁾  (427)  (482)  (482)  (482)  (482)  (-)Taxes @ 27.0%⁽⁶⁾  58  81  (369)  (633)  (839)  PF Net Income  ($156)  ($114)  $1,103  $1,802  $2,268  TRATON Shares (mm)  500  576  576  576  576  PF EPS  NA  ($0.20)  $1.92  $3.13  $3.94  TRATON Standalone EPS  ($0.31)  $0.36  $2.27  $3.01  $3.29  % Accretion  –  NM  (15.6%)  4.0%  19.9%  % Accretion (Pre-Synergies)  –  NM  (18.5%)  (1.1%)  12.3%  PF Net Debt (Incl. Tax-Affected Pension and OPEB)  $2,924  $8,428  $7,056  $5,367  $3,143  PF Net Leverage (Incl. Tax-Affected Pension and OPEB)  –  5.0x  2.1x  1.2x  0.6x  Standalone Net Leverage (Incl. Tax-Affected Pension and OPEB)  –  2.0x  1.1x  0.9x  0.8x    Illustrative Pro Forma Acquisition Analysis (Navistar Management Forecast)Assumes $55/NAV Share Transaction with 65% Cash / 35% Stock Funding and $425mm of Synergies  Source: Company Filings, Navistar Management Projections, Wall Street Research, Capital IQ.Note: Based on projected December 31st, 2020 balance sheet. Market data as of 7/29/20. EUR / USD exchange rate of 1.18.  (1)(2)(3)  Assumes TRATON minimum cash balance of €2.0bn as of YE 2020.Based on 107.125% redemption price on Navistar 9.5% Notes due 2025 triggered by a TRATON acquisition and 3.313% make-whole value on Navistar 6.625% Notes due 2025 beginning 11/20/20. Assumes Navistar’s low-run revenue synergy estimate of $951mm and Navistar’s low run-rate cost synergy estimate of $265mm and low run-rate earnings on revenue of synergy estimate of $160mm, including cost to achieve synergies and phase-in period, per management estimates.Includes Financial Services EBIT of Navistar and TRATON.Assumes blended interest rate on Industrial Debt of 2.25% based on TRATON’s senior secured notes raised in June 2020; assumes blended interest rate on Financial Services debt of 3.0%.Tax rate based on TRATON’s company filing. Includes the impact of Navistar’s assumed NOL balance of $300mm. Taxable EBIT reduced by $95mm per year based on the purchase price of Navistar equity multiplied by the tax-exempt rate of 1.89%.  (4)(5)(6)  NYSE: NAV  17  CONFIDENTIAL and Proprietary to Navistar | Do not copy or distribute  ($ in millions)          Sources      Uses    New TRATON Debt Raised  $4,912    Acquire 83% of NAV Equity @ $55/share  $4,583  TRATON Equity Consideration (76mm New Shares)  1,604    Refinance NAV Industrial Debt  3,537  Rolled NAV Pension and OPEB  2,100    Assumption of NAV Pension and OPEB  2,100  NAV Existing Balance Sheet Cash  1,400    Breakage Costs on NAV Industrial Debt⁽²⁾  79  TRATON Existing Balance Sheet Cash(1)  333    Transaction Fees and Expenses  50  Total Sources  $10,349    Total Uses  $10,349  Income Statement Contribution          Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP 
 

   Standalone 2020E  PF2020E  2021E  2022E  2023E  TRATON Industrial Revenue  $24,262  $24,262  $27,342  $28,775  $29,543  NAV Manufacturing Revenue  –  7,404  8,421  9,493  10,835  (+) Synergies⁽ ³⁾  –  –  –  51  161  Total Industrial Revenue  $24,262  $31,666  $35,762  $38,319  $40,539  % Growth  (8.3%)  30.5%  12.9%  7.1%  5.8%  TRATON Industrial EBITDA  1,443  1,443  2,783  3,316  3,511  NAV Manufacturing EBITDAPO  –  331  484  573  868  (+) Synergies⁽ ³⁾  –  –  53  118  193  PF Synergized Industrial EBITDA  $1,443  $1,773  $3,320  $4,007  $4,572  % Margin  5.9%  5.6%  9.3%  10.5%  11.3%  PF Consolidated Synergized EBIT⁽⁴⁾  $250  $540  $2,052  $2,733  $3,301  % Margin  1.0%  1.7%  5.7%  7.1%  8.1%  (-) Net Interest Expense From Industrial Debt⁽⁵⁾  (36)  (159)  (144)  (112)  (74)  (-) Net Interest Expense From Financial Services Debt⁽⁵⁾  (427)  (482)  (482)  (482)  (482)  (-)Taxes @ 27.0%⁽⁶⁾  58  55  (357)  (553)  (741)  PF Net Income  ($156)  ($46)  $1,069  $1,586  $2,004  TRATON Shares (mm)  500  500  500  500  500  PF EPS  NA  ($0.09)  $2.14  $3.17  $4.01  TRATON Standalone EPS  ($0.31)  $0.36  $2.27  $3.01  $3.29  % Accretion  –  NM  (5.7%)  5.5%  22.0%  % Accretion (Pre-Synergies)  –  NM  (9.2%)  (0.4%)  13.2%  PF Net Debt (Incl. Tax-Affected Pension and OPEB)  $2,924  $10,032  $8,684  $7,223  $5,276  PF Net Leverage (Incl. Tax-Affected Pension and OPEB)  –  5.7x  2.6x  1.8x  1.2x  Standalone Net Leverage (Incl. Tax-Affected Pension and OPEB)  –  2.0x  1.1x  0.9x  0.8x    Illustrative Pro Forma Acquisition Analysis (Navistar Consensus Estimates)Assumes $55/NAV Share Transaction with 100% Cash Funding and $425mm of Synergies  Source: Company Filings, Wall Street Research, Capital IQ.Note: Based on projected December 31st, 2020 balance sheet. Market data as of 7/29/20. EUR / USD exchange rate of 1.18.  (1)(2)(3)  Assumes TRATON minimum cash balance of €2.0bn as of YE 2020.Based on 107.125% redemption price on Navistar 9.5% Notes due 2025 triggered by a TRATON acquisition and 3.313% make-whole value on Navistar 6.625% Notes due 2025 beginning 11/20/20. Assumes Navistar’s low-run revenue synergy estimate of $951mm and Navistar’s low run-rate cost synergy estimate of $265mm and low run-rate earnings on revenue of synergy estimate of $160mm, including cost to achieve synergies and phase-in period, per management estimates.Includes Financial Services EBIT of Navistar and TRATON.Assumes blended interest rate on Industrial Debt of 2.25% based on TRATON’s senior secured notes raised in June 2020; assumes blended interest rate on Financial Services debt of 3.0%.Tax rate based on TRATON’s company filing. Includes the impact of Navistar’s assumed NOL balance of $300mm. Taxable EBIT reduced by $95mm per year based on the purchase price of Navistar equity multiplied by the tax-exempt rate of 1.89%.  (4)(5)(6)  NYSE: NAV  18  CONFIDENTIAL and Proprietary to Navistar | Do not copy or distribute  ($ in millions)          Sources      Uses    New TRATON Debt Raised  $6,516    Acquire 83% of NAV Equity @ $55/share  $4,583  Rolled NAV Pension and OPEB  2,100    Refinance NAV Industrial Debt  3,537  NAV Existing Balance Sheet Cash  1,400    Assumption of NAV Pension and OPEB  2,100  TRATON Existing Balance Sheet Cash(1)  333    Breakage Costs on NAV Industrial Debt⁽²⁾  79        Transaction Fees and Expenses  50  Total Sources  $10,349    Total Uses  $10,349  Income Statement Contribution          Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP 
 

     Based on Navistar Net Operating Profit After Tax, divided by Acquisition Transaction Enterprise Value(1,2)Assumes synergies phase in per management estimates  Illustrative ROIC Analysis Based on Navistar Management Forecast   2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025ESource: Company Filings, Navistar Management Projections, Wall Street Research, Capital IQ.Note: Based on projected December 31st, 2020 balance sheet. Market data as of 7/29/20. EUR / USD exchange rate of 1.18.NOPAT is calculated before non-service pension expense. Assumes tax rate of 27% per management estimates.Transaction TEV includes net debt of $2,135mm, preferred stock of $2mm, minority interest of $2mm, investment in affiliates of $28mm as per 2020 Q2 filing; Post tax underfunded pension and OPEB of $1,659mm (assumes tax rate of 21%,pre-tax underfunded pension of $1,300mm and pre-tax underfunded OPEB of $800mm as of 04/30/20); PV of NOLs of $300mm.Assumes Navistar’s low run-rate cost synergy estimate of $265mm, including cost to achieve synergies and phase-in period, per management estimates.Assumes Navistar’s low run-rate cost synergy estimate of $265mm and low run-rate earnings on revenue synergy estimate of $160mm, including cost to achieve synergies and phase-in period, per  Year 3 ROIC (2023E)  Annual Transaction ROICBased on $55 NAV Acq. Price            3.2%  6.0%  8.9%  9.6%  9.7%  6.8%  10.2%  11.3%  11.8%  3.6–%  6.9%  10.5%  11.8%  12.4%   NAV Acquisition Stock Price $50.00 $55.00 $60.00  Run-Rate Synergies ($mm)  –  9.4%  8.9%  8.4%    (3)$265  10.8%  10.2%  9.7%    $425 (4)  11.1%  10.5%  9.9%      Year 5 ROIC (2025E)   NAV Acquisition Stock Price $50.00 $55.00 $60.00  Run-Rate Synergies ($mm)  –  10.2%  9.7%  9.2%    (3)$265  12.5%  11.8%  11.2%    $425 (4)  13.2%  12.4%  11.8%      Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP          No Synergies $265mm Synergies(3) $425mm Synergies(4)  management estimates. Analysis excludes captive finance synergies.  NYSE: NAV  19  CONFIDENTIAL and Proprietary to Navistar | Do not copy or distribute 
 

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