EX-99 4 nt10016784x3_ex99c7.htm EXHIBIT (C)(7)

Exhibit (c)(7)
 CONFIDENTIAL and PROPRIETARY to NAVISTAR    NYSE: NAV  Project Titan | Valuation analysis  Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP  July 28, 2020 
 

   Management forecast comparison as of July 2020  Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP  Management – Feb. 2020    Revenue ($mm)    Adj. EBITDA ($mm)                                $946  $740  $877  $1,119  $1,451  $1,448  10.0%  11.7%  12.0%        % margin  (14.6%)  9.3%  6.4%  10.9%  (2.7%)  % growth  Management projections pre-COVID  Source: Company information and projections, CapIQ as of 07/23/20 Note: Financials reflect 10/31 FYE  Management – July 2020                            $300  $585  $988  $1,376  $1,494  9.4%  11.4%  12.0%  (35.1%)  10.2%  31.2%  14.0%  3.0%  Latest management estimates    (23.9%)    (23.3%)    (5.4%)    (2.8%)    2.9%  Δ vs. Feb.    (59.5%)    (33.3%)    (11.7%)    (5.2%)    3.2%  Δ vs. Feb.  Whole Co. financial projections  Consensus – July 2020      $7,714  $8,861  $9,654  2020  2021  2022              $365  $609                                                        8.4%    7.7%    8.4%                4.1%    7.3%                4.7%    6.9%    7.8%  2019    2020    2021    2022    2023    2024    2020    2021    2022    2023    2024    2020    2021    2022  $754  (31.4%)  14.9%  8.9%  Consensus analyst estimates as of 7/23  Δ vs. July mgmt.    5.6%    10.1%    (8.6%)  Δ vs. July mgmt.    21.7%    4.0%    (23.7%)  Long term  manufacturing EBITDA  margin of 10.9%                                $11,251  $9,603  $10,498 $11,170  $12,387 $12,055  13.8%  13.0%  15.0%  16.0%  17.0%  17.5%  2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024        Class 8 market share                            $7,305  2  NYSE: NAV  CONFIDENTIAL and PROPRIETARY to NAVISTAR  $8,050  $10,563  $12,039  $12,401  10.5%  11.3%  13.5%  15.2%  16.7%  2020  2021  2022  2023  2024 
 

     Revenue CAGR (‘20E – ‘22E)    EBITDA CAGR (‘20E – ‘22E)  Source: Wall Street Research, Capital IQNote: Market data as of 7/23/20. Navistar figures are company estimates. Based on WholeCo financials        (Mgmt.)    Revenue Growth (’21E – ’22E)    EBITDA Growth (’21E – ’22E)  (Consensus)          (Mgmt.)    (Consensus)                (Mgmt.)    (Consensus)        (Mgmt.)    (Consensus)        (Mgmt.)    (Consensus)  North American peer group operating comparison  Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP        20.2%  19.6%  12.0%  11.7%        81.5%  39.0%  37.7%  20.8%          EBITDA Margin (’22E)  14.9%      11.6%    9.4%    7.9%    (Mgmt.) (Consensus)  EBITDA Margin Expansion (’20E – ’22E)          31.2%  22.0%  11.1%  9.7%        68.9%  26.0%  25.2%  18.7%        5.2%  3  NYSE: NAV  CONFIDENTIAL and PROPRIETARY to NAVISTAR  2.8%  2.8%  2.1% 
 

   Illustrative standalone discounted cash flow analysis summary  Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP  Discount rate range  9.5% - 11.5%  Terminal growth range  1.0% - 2.0%  Long-term manufacturing EBITDA margin  10.9%  Base range  $37 - $60  Mid-point  $47  Standalone valuation range1  Key counterproposal messages  Management’s plan reflects impact of COVID- 19 on market share growth and margin expansion plan over the next five yearsStandalone intrinsic value of that plan centers on ~$47 per shareNavistar’s granular analysis of potential synergies has identified ~$600mm to $1.0bn of additional annual run-rate cost and revenue synergies achievable post combinationTraton is likely to focus on off-balance sheet liabilities which could reduce valuation by ~$8 per share    1 For reference only; as per July 15, 2020 projections from management  3  NYSE: NAV  CONFIDENTIAL and PROPRIETARY to NAVISTAR 
 

   Illustrative standalone discounted cash flow sensitivity analysis  Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP    As implied by preliminary management base case analysis  High  Low  Mid-point    Discount rate: 10.5%; TVGR: 1.5% Revenue CAGR 20E' - 29E' 7.4% 6.9% 6.4% 5.9% 5.4%  11.4%  $55 $52  $48  $45  $42  10.9%  $50 $47  $43 $40 $37  10.4% $45  $42  $39  $36  $33  9.9% $40  $37  $34  $31  $28  9.4% $35  $32  $29  $27  $24  8.7% $28  $25  $23  $20  $18  Long term manufacturing EBITDA margin                      Discount rate: 9.5%; TVGR: 2.0% Revenue CAGR 20E' - 29E' 7.4% 6.9% 6.4% 5.9% 5.4%  11.4%  $70 $66  $61  $57  $53  10.9%  $64 $60  $56 $52 $48  10.4% $58  $54  $51  $47  $43  9.9% $53  $49  $45  $42  $38  9.4% $47  $43  $40  $36  $33  8.7% $39  $36  $32  $29  $26  Long term manufacturing EBITDA margin                      Discount rate: 11.5%; TVGR: 1.0% Revenue CAGR 20E' - 29E' 7.4% 6.9% 6.4% 5.9% 5.4%  11.4%  $45 $41  $39  $36  $33  10.9%  $40 $37  $34 $32 $29  10.4% $36  $33  $30  $28  $25  9.9% $31  $28  $26  $23  $21  9.4% $27  $24  $22  $19  $17  8.7% $20  $18  $16  $14  $12  Long term manufacturing EBITDA margin                    Source: Management projections  4  NYSE: NAV  CONFIDENTIAL and PROPRIETARY to NAVISTAR 
 

   Navistar Low Synergy Estimate(1)    Low Estimate Synergy NPV Per Share Sensitivity AnalysisAscribes No Credit to Balance Sheet Synergies  Navistar High Synergy Estimate(2)  High Estimate Synergy NPV Per Share Sensitivity AnalysisAscribes No Credit to Balance Sheet Synergies  Source: MNote: NPV values based on a 10.5% discount rate; After-tax NPV per share value based on a 27% tax rate(1) Based on management provided low case; based on 100.9mm shares outstanding    –  25%  50%  75%  100%        –  25%  50%  75%  100%  –  $0  $4  $8  $13  $17    enue or  –  $0  $10  $20  $30  $40  25%  $2  $7  $11  $15  $19    of Rev Paid F  25%  $3  $13  $23  $33  $43  50%  $5  $9  $13  $17  $22    ive % rgies  50%  $6  $16  $26  $36  $45  75%  $7  $11  $15  $20  $24    ustrat Syne  75%  $8  $18  $28  $38  $48  100%  $9  $13  $18  $22  $26    Ill  100%  $11  $21  $31  $41  $51  anagement s  ynergy analysis, company filings                          Illustrative Traton perspective on synergy assumptions sensitivity  Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP  Cost Synergies  $265  $17  Revenue Synergies  224  9  Balance Sheet Synergies  124  10  Total Synergies  $612  $36  Annual NPV Per EBITDA Uplift Share   Cost Synergies  $572  $40  Revenue Synergies  295  11  Balance Sheet Synergies  128  11  Total Synergies  $995  $62  Annual NPV Per EBITDA Uplift Share    Illustrative % of Cost Synergies Paid For   Illustrative % of RevenueSynergies Paid For           Illustrative % of Cost Synergies Paid For       ($ in millions, expect per share data)  (2) Based on management provided high case; based on 101.4mm shares outstanding  5  NYSE: NAV  CONFIDENTIAL and PROPRIETARY to NAVISTAR 
 

                       % of synergies paid for  100%                      $47  $39  ($8)  75%        50%  $19    $58  25%  $10    $48  $29  $68  $39  $77  Standalone 1 Off-balance 2DCF value sheet liabilities  Share price pre-synergies  Illustrative 3 Share price synergies paid post-synergiesaway  Illustrative negotiating framework  $37 – $60  ($2) – ($15)    $10 – $39  Source: Company informationNote: Per share calculations based on fully diluted share count of 100.1mm; Incremental increases based on midpoint of value ranges1 Based on management base case plan; Assumes 1-2% terminal growth rate and 10.5% discount rate2 Off-balance sheet liabilities include litigation, used truck and pension risk of $5.37, $0.43 and $2.71, respectively, with corresponding ranges of ($2.32 – $8.41), ($0.00 – $0.85) and ($0.00 – $5.41)3 NPV values based on a 10.5% discount rate and 27% tax rate; ascribes no credit to balance sheet synergies  Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP  Represents mid-point values  DCF Based  Market Based    undisturbed since offer share price4 cost synergies3 synergies revenue  share price 4 synergies 3      Implied share price impact    Amounts represent value per Navistar share  4 Unaffected share price reflects Navistar pre-offer share price of $24.07 as of 01/30/20; current share price reflects Navistar share price of $31.30 as of 07/23/20  6  NYSE: NAV  CONFIDENTIAL and PROPRIETARY to NAVISTAR  $24  $31  $50  $7  $17   $48 $9  $57  NAV Appreciation NAV current NPV of low Market + cost NPV of low Market + cost  and revenue synergies 
 

 CONFIDENTIAL and PROPRIETARY to NAVISTAR    NYSE: NAV  APPENDIX 
 

                                             13.4x (2)  10.8x  7.8x  6.5x  6.0x  5.9x  8.3x  8.1x  6.9x  6.1x  6.4x  4.8x  4.5x  3.0x  7.4x  3.9x 5.7x      Current Multiples Multiples at 2/19 Average of Current Multiples (Excl. NAV) Average of Multiples at 2/19 (Excl. NAV)10.6x  12.1x (3)  (2)9.7x  Adj. TEV / 2021E EBITDAPO(1)    Source: Company filings, Wall Street Research, Capital IQNote: Market data as of 7/23/20. Averages exclude Navistar multiples1 Adjusted TEV defined as market cap plus net debt, preferred stock, minority interest and tax-affected pension & OPEB less investments in affiliates and book value of FinCo Equity2 Based on consensus 2021E Manufacturing EBITDA of $484mm and $652mm as of 7/23/20 and 2/19/20, respectively3 Assumes 2021E Manufacturing EBITDAPO of $535mm based on 2021E WholeCo Adj. EBITDA of $585mm, 2021E FinCo EBITDA of $124mm, and non-service pension cost of $74mm                (Consensus)    (Management)  Looking at trading multiples for the sector is challenging given uncertainty and lack of granularity on Manufacturing specific projections.  Change in Share Price(2/19/20 to 7/23/20)                                  Change in TEV(2/19/20 to 7/23/20)  Navistar peer trading update  February 19, 2020 to July 23, 2020  Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP      (25%)  (22%)  (17%)  (15%)  (11%)  3%  13%  16%      (22%)  9  NYSE: NAV  CONFIDENTIAL and PROPRIETARY to NAVISTAR  (19%)  (9%)  (5%)  2%  6%  14%  30% 
 

   Industry sales forecasts by class / type  Class 8 Truck                                  75,597  45,500  44,000  59,400  65,000 63,800  58,500  15.6%   (39.8%)   35.0%  9.4%  (3.3%) (1.8%) (8.3%)  Source: ACT ResearchNote: Financials reflect 12/31 FYE                                8.1%  26.2%  31.8%  2.3%  (1.7%)  1.6%    (42.9%)            2019  2020  2021  2022  2023  2024  2025  2019  2020  2021  2022  2023  2024  2025  Class 5-7 Truck              215,587  123,200  155,500  204,900  209,650  206,050  209,250 2019A – 2025E CAGR(0.5%)  Bus                      41,425  10  NYSE: NAV  CONFIDENTIAL and PROPRIETARY to NAVISTAR  31,300  37,300          19.2%  21.4%              (1.1%)    (24.4%)          1.9%    0.0%    0.7%  2019    2020    2021  2022    2023    2024    2025  45,300  46,150 46,150 46,450  Retail sales (units) and YoY growth (%) per ACT Research  2019A – 2025E CAGR (4.2%)  2019A – 2025E CAGR1.9%  2020E – 2025E CAGR5.2%  2020E – 2025E CAGR11.2%  2020E – 2025E CAGR8.2%  Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP 
 

   Heavy: Dealer led sales and segment optimized product offerings to drive heavy market share from 13.8% in FY19 to 18.1% by 2026. Commercial acceleration initiative along with more aggressive pivot to small/mid size customer expect to increase segment penetration in Private and general Freight  Medium: EPS driven refreshed production, and dealer engagement to grow government business to drive market share growth from 27% to 29.0% by 2026  Severe Service: Launch of Next Gen HX in FY21 and targeting growth in Utility & Concrete segments achieve market share from 14.8% to 20.6% by 2026  Bus: Launch of electric bus in FY21, and continued focus on National Accounts, Dealer augmented AOR focus to maintain Bus market share growth momentum, reaching 40% in FY25  Market Share        FY19 ACT  FY20  FY21  FY22  FY23  FY24  FY25  FY26  Heavy  13.8%  10.5%  11.3%  13.5%  15.2%  16.7%  17.2%  18.1%  Severe  14.8%  15.5%  16.9%  17.3%  18.4%  19.1%  19.9%  20.6%  Medium  27.0%  21.0%  23.0%  26.2%  27.7%  27.2%  28.6%  29.0%  Bus  35.8%  37.0%  38.5%  38.0%  38.0%  39.5%  40.0%  40.5%  Total Traditional  18.8%  17.0%  18.1%  19.3%  20.3%  21.4%  22.8%  23.5%  Source: Company information  9  NYSE: NAV  CONFIDENTIAL and PROPRIETARY to NAVISTAR  Key Assumptions  Market share growth assumptions  Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP 
 

   Key valuation assumptions  10  NYSE: NAV  CONFIDENTIAL and PROPRIETARY to NAVISTAR  2020E and 2021E projections based on Management projections as of June 26th, 20202022E through 2026E projections based on Management's sensitized strategic plan assumptions as of July 9th, 2020Assumes truck cycle returns to trend beginning in 20222024E heavy duty market share growth to 16.7% (current market share of 10.5%)2026E through 2029E assumes a linear decline in revenue growth from 1.8% in 2026E to 1.5% in 2029EResults in a 2020E – 2029E revenue CAGR of 6.9%Long-term (2024E and beyond) Manufacturing Adj. EBITDA margin of 10.9% (12% WholeCo margin)Long-term annual capex expense of $250mm, driven by autonomous and e-mobility investment as well as maintenance capital expenditureAssumes valuation date of April 30th, 2020 and mid-period discounting conventionBalance sheet data as of April 30th, 2020 per Q2 2020 filingReflects net debt of $2,038mm, after-tax pension and OPEB of $1,659mm ($2.1bn pre-tax), FinCo book equity of $617mm, and assumes PV of NOLs of $300mmAssumes normalized long-term tax rate of 27%  Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP  Source: Company filings 
 

   Illustrative standalone discounted cash flow analysis  Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP    PV of terminal value    PV of cash flows  +    Firm value    Equity value    Implied value per share    Book value of FinCo1  +    Implied TV / 2029E Adj. EBITDA  =   Terminal growth rate 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%   Discount rate  9.5%  $4,365  $4,667  $5,008    10.5%  3,599  3,822  4,072    11.5%  3,003  3,172  3,360   Terminal growth rate 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%   Discount rate  9.5%  $8,794  $9,095  $9,437    10.5%  7,856  8,079  8,329    11.5%  7,099  7,268  7,456   Terminal growth rate 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%   Discount rate  9.5%  $5,421  $5,722  $6,064    10.5%  4,483  4,706  4,956    11.5%  3,726  3,895  4,083   Terminal growth rate 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%   Discount rate  9.5%  $53.76  $56.71  $60.06    10.5%  $44.57  $46.76  $49.21    11.5%  $37.14  $38.81  $40.65   Terminal growth rate 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%   Discount rate  9.5%  7.3x  7.8x  8.4x    10.5%  6.6x  7.0x  7.4x    11.5%  6.0x  6.3x  6.7x  Discount rate  9.5%  $3,812    10.5%  3,640    11.5%  3,479  Discount rate  9.5%  $617    10.5%  617    11.5%  617    Net debt and NOLs2  Discount rate  9.5%  ($3,373)    10.5%  (3,373)    11.5%  (3,373)  =  -  Source: Navistar management projectionsNote: Assume valuation date as of 04/30/20; assumes mid-period discounting convention; assumes tax rate of 27%1 Assumes 1.0x FinCo. book value of $617mm as per 2020 Q2 filing2 Net debt of $2,038mm, preferred stock of $2mm, minority interest of $2mm, investment in affiliates of $28mm as per 2020 Q2 filing; Post tax underfunded pension and OPEB of $1,659mm (assumes tax rate of 21%, pre-tax underfunded pension of $1,300mm and pre-tax underfunded OPEB of $800mm as of 04/30/20); PV of NOLs of $300mm  Management base case – July 15, 2020; Assumed discount rate of 9.5% - 11.5%   Management projections ($mm) Q3-Q4 20E Oct-21E Oct-22E Oct-23E Oct-24E Oct-25E Oct-26E                Oct-27E   CAGR Oct-28E Oct-29E Terminal 20E' - 24E' 20E' - 29E'              Manufacturing revenue  $3,463  $7,879  $10,376  $11,843  $12,202  $12,206  $12,429  $12,643  $12,847  $13,039    $13,235    14.4%  6.9%  % growth    10.5%  31.7%  14.1%  3.0%  0.0%  1.8%  1.7%  1.6%  1.5%    1.5%        Manufacturing Adj. EBITDA  $96  $461  $842  $1,213  $1,327  $1,327  $1,352  $1,375  $1,397  $1,418    $1,439    67.1%  26.6%  % margin  2.8%  5.9%  8.1%  10.2%  10.9%  10.9%  10.9%  10.9%  10.9%  10.9%    10.9%        Plus: Non-service pension expenses  28  74  38  26  14  4  (4)  0  0  0    0        Manufacturing EBITDAPO  $124  $535  $880  $1,239  $1,341  $1,331  $1,348  $1,375  $1,397  $1,418    $1,439        % margin  3.6%  6.8%  8.5%  10.5%  11.0%  10.9%  10.8%  10.9%  10.9%  10.9%    10.9%        Less: Manufacturing D&A  (77)  (142)  (146)  (146)  (160)  (143)  (154)  (164)  (173)  (183)    (183)        Manufacturing EBITPO  $47  $393  $734  $1,093  $1,181  $1,189  $1,194  $1,211  $1,224  $1,236    $1,257        % margin  1.4%  5.0%  7.1%  9.2%  9.7%  9.7%  9.6%  9.6%  9.5%  9.5%    9.5%        Tax expense  (13)  (48)  (198)  (295)  (319)  (321)  (322)  (327)  (330)  (334)    (339)        EBIAT  $34  $345  $536  $798  $862  $868  $872  $884  $894  $902    $918        Plus: Manufacturing D&A  77  142  146  146  160  143  154  164  173  183    183        % capex  85.6%  47.3%  48.8%  48.5%  53.3%  57.0%  61.8%  65.5%  69.3%  73.0%    73.0%        Less: Capex  (90)  (300)  (300)  (300)  (300)  (250)  (250)  (250)  (250)  (250)    (250)    13.6%  3.7%  Less: Δ(NWC) & Other  (20)  (39)  124  160  61  (19)  (5)  (5)  (5)  (5)    (5)        Unlevered FCF  $1  $148  $506  $803  $782  $741  $771  $793  $812  $829    $845              11  NYSE: NAV  CONFIDENTIAL and PROPRIETARY to NAVISTAR 
 

     Litigation, used truck and pension risk   Reduction in Interest Rates (bps)                   0  25  50  75  100  Return on plan assets  0.0%  $0.0  ($84.8)  ($169.5)  ($254.3)  ($339.0)    (5.0%)  (100.7)  (185.4)  (270.2)  (354.9)  (439.7)    (10.0%)  (201.3)  (286.1)  (370.8)  (455.6)  (540.3)    (15.0%)  (302.0)  (386.7)  (471.5)  (556.2)  (641.0)    (20.0%)  (402.6)  (487.4)  (572.1)  (656.9)  (741.6)    Impact on funding status1   Reduction in Interest Rates (bps)                   0  25  50  75  100  Return on plan assets  0.0%  $0.0  ($61.9)  ($123.7)  ($185.6)  ($247.5)    (5.0%)  (73.5)  (135.3)  (197.2)  (259.1)  (320.9)    (10.0%)  (146.9)  (208.8)  (270.7)  (332.6)  (394.4)    (15.0%)  (220.4)  (282.3)  (344.2)  (406.0)  (467.9)    (20.0%)  (293.9)  (355.8)  (417.6)  (479.5)  (541.4)    Post-tax impact on equity value1   Reduction in Interest Rates (bps)                   0  25  50  75  100  Return on plan assets  0.0%  $0.00  ($0.62)  ($1.24)  ($1.85)  ($2.47)    (5.0%)  ($0.73)  ($1.35)  ($1.97)  ($2.59)  ($3.21)    (10.0%)  ($1.47)  ($2.09)  ($2.70)  ($3.32)  ($3.94)    (15.0%)  ($2.20)  ($2.82)  ($3.44)  ($4.06)  ($4.67)    (20.0%)  ($2.94)  ($3.55)  ($4.17)  ($4.79)  ($5.41)    Post-tax impact on share price1  $85  $0  $0.85  $0.00    Used truck lossPer shareSource: Company information1 Based on plan assets of $2.013bn; Assumes 1.00% reduction in interest rates would reduce funding status by $339mm based on sensitivity analysis; Assumes tax rate of 27%  Preliminary draft for illustrative purposes only – All projections are WIP    12  NYSE: NAV  CONFIDENTIAL and PROPRIETARY to NAVISTAR 
 

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