EX-99 3 nt10016784x3_ex99c4.htm EXHIBIT (C)(4)

Exhibit (c)(4)

                           CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT  Project Dawn  Supporting Valuation Materials Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE7 November 2020 
 

 CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT  2  Disclaimer  These materials have been prepared and are provided by Goldman Sachs on a confidential basis solely for the information and assistance of the Management Board and the Supervisory Board (the „Management and Supervisory Board“) of Dusk (the „Company“) in connection with its consideration of the matters referred to herein. These materials and Goldman Sachs’ presentation relating to these materials (the “Confidential Information”) may not be disclosed to any third party or circulated or referred to publicly or used for or relied upon for any other purpose without the prior written consent of Goldman Sachs. 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The Confidential Information has been prepared by the Investment Banking Division of Goldman Sachs and is not a product of its research department.Goldman Sachs and its affiliates are engaged in advisory, underwriting and financing, principal investing, sales and trading, research, investment management and other financial and non- financial activities and services for various persons and entities. Goldman Sachs and its affiliates and employees, and funds or other entities they manage or in which they invest or have other economic interests or with which they co-invest, may at any time purchase, sell, hold or vote long or short positions and investments in securities, derivatives, loans, commodities, currencies, credit default swaps and other financial instruments of the Company, any other party to any transaction and any of their respective affiliates or any currency or commodity that may be involved in any transaction. Goldman Sachs’ investment banking division maintains regular, ordinary course client service dialogues with clients and potential clients to review events, opportunities, and conditions in particular sectors and industries and, in that connection, Goldman Sachs may make reference to the Company, but Goldman Sachs will not disclose any confidential information received from the Company.The Confidential Information has been prepared based on historical financial information, forecasts and other information obtained by Goldman Sachs from publicly available sources, the management of the Company or other sources (approved for our use by the Company in the case of information from management and non-public information). 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Analyses based upon forecasts of future results are not necessarily indicative of actual future results, which may be significantly more or less favorable than suggested by these analyses, and Goldman Sachs does not assume responsibility if future results are materially different from those forecast.The Confidential Information does not address the underlying business decision of the Company to engage in any transaction, or the relative merits of any transaction or strategic alternative referred to herein as compared to any other transaction or alternative that may be available to the Company. The Confidential Information is necessarily based on economic, monetary, market and other conditions as in effect on, and the information made available to Goldman Sachs as of, the date of such Confidential Information and Goldman Sachs assumes no responsibility for updating or revising the Confidential Information based on circumstances, developments or events occurring after such date. 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 CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT  3  Table of Contents  I. Transaction Overview  II. Illustrative Financial Projections  III. Preliminary Illustrative Financial Analyses 
 

 CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT  I. Transaction Overview 
 

                       CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT  Summary of Key Economic Terms    Share Price References    Implied Equity Value    Implied Industrial Enterprise Value    Buyer Case by Dusk Mgmt.    Research Analyst Consensus        In $m, except per share data ($)  Amount  Implied Premium  Transaction Price Per Share  44.50  Undisturbed Price as of 30-Jan  24.07  84.9 %  Implied Price by Performance of Peers from 30-Jan¹  28.20  57.8 %  90d VWAP (pre 30-Jan)  29.37  51.5 %  52-Week High (pre 30-Jan)  39.15  13.7 %  24.3 %  15-Year AverageBasic Number of Shares Outstanding  35.7999.58  Dilutive Effect of Equity-linked Securities  0.65  Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding  100.22  Implied Equity Value for 100% of Dawn  4,460  Ind. Net Financial Debt (Jul-20)  1,922  Pension / OPEB (Jul-20)  2,013  FS Book Equity (Jul-20)  (647)  Other EV-Equity Items (Jul-20)²  202  Dusk DD Findings  3  Implied Ind. Enterprise Value  7,953  Implied Multiples (FYE 31-Oct)³  Amount ($m)  Impl. Multiple  FY21 Ind. EV / EBITDA  481  16.5 x  FY22 Ind. EV / EBITDA  830  9.6 x  FY21 Ind. EV / EBIT  319  24.9 x  FY22 Ind. EV / EBIT  641  12.4 x  FY21 Group P/E  131  34.1 x  443493  10.1 x16.1 x  FY22 Group P/EFY21 Ind. EV / EBITDA4 FY22 Ind. EV / EBITDA4  621  12.8 x  331  24.0 x  FY21 Ind. EV / EBIT4 FY22 Ind. EV / EBIT4  432  18.4 x  FY21 Group P/E 161 27.7 x  FY22 Group P/E 247 18.1 xSource: Dusk Management projections, Dawn filings, Thomson Reuters Eikon as of 06-Nov-2020Note: Goldman Sachs has assumed, based on guidance by the management of the Company, that the Company will retain its investment grade rating profile following the consummation of the transaction, facilitated by the support of Volkswagen as the corporate parent of the Company. 1 Peers include Volvo and Paccar. 2 Other EV-Equity items include equity investments ($30m), non-controlling interests (estimated at $203m) and cash-settled RSUs and cash- settled equity grants ($29m at $44.50 offer price per share). 3 EBITDA and EBIT reversed for pension interest, associate income and net income attributable to minorities. Group net income post net income attributable to minorities.4 Ind. EBIT calculated as Group EBIT consensus minus Financial Services segment consensus. Ind. EBITDA calculated as Ind. EBIT plus D&A (as per Dusk Buyer Case for Dawn).                                                                                                                  5  Transaction Overview 
 

 CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT  Dawn’s Long-Term Stock Price PerformanceLast 15 Years  Source: Bloomberg, Market Data as of 06-Nov-20              2009/10:Financial Crisis  2011/12:Emission Regulation  Problems  2015:Stabilization  + Refinancing                                  $20  $40  $60  $80  $100  May-2011 Nov-20122nd Offer (Sep-20)  Jul-2014  Jan-2016  Aug-2017  Mar-2019  Oct-2020  Closing Price (USD)    $0Jan-2005 Aug-2006Dawn Stock Price    Mar-2008 Oct-20091st Offer (Jan-20)      Transaction Price    15Y High    15Y Low    15Y Avg.  15Y High: $ 78.99  $ 44.50$ 43.00$ 43.37$ 35.00  15Y Avg: $ 35.79  15Y Low: $ 6.23    06-Sep-2016 | $19.79Victor acquires17% stake in Dawn at $15.76 per share                30-Jan-2020 | $24.07Initial offer: $35 per share      10-Sep-2020 | $40.78Dusk raises offer to $43 per share              16-Oct-2020 | $43.53Dusk / Dawn agree in principle on$44.50 per share  6  Transaction Overview 
 

 CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT  II. Illustrative Financial Projections 
 

 CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT  Dusk’s Financial Projections for Dawn – Key Financials  Source: Dusk Management projections, Dawn filings, Thomson Reuters as of 06-Nov-2020Note: 1 Incl. certain operating synergies projected by the management of Dusk 2 EBIT reversed for pension interest, associate income and net income attributable to minorities.  Ind. Revenue ($m)  Dawn Group Earnings per Share ($)      Broker Consensus        Standalone Case Buyer Case 1Ind. Adj. EBIT (for Valuation, $m)²  Ind. Adj. EBIT (for Valuation) Margin    Ind. Revenue Growth (%)  2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E    Standalone    (34.9)%  14.0 %  21.0 %  14.6 %  9.2 %  2.0 %  Buyer Case    (34.9)%  14.0 %  21.0 %  16.0 %  10.6 %  9.5 %  Broker Consen.    (35.2)%  18.9 %  10.0 %        530  104  331  432    2025E  2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E590 25 286 518 674 737  764  590 25 319 641 883 1,043  1,260          221  (81)  161  247    2019A  2020E  2024E  2025E  221  (128)  580  600  221  (128)  Dawn Group Net Income ($m) 2021E 2022E 2023E104 352 508131 443 663  807  967                                                                                                  (1.28)  1.30  4.42  6.61  8.05  9.65  2.21  (1.28)  3.51   1.04   5.07  5.79  5.99  2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E                                                          8,208  9,931  11,517  12,742  13,953  11,061  7,2007,200  8,208  9,931  11,382  12,425  12,675  2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E                                                                                        0.4 %  8  Illustrative Financial Projections  3.9 %  6.5 %  7.7 %  8.2 %  9.0 %  5.3 %  0.4 %  3.5 %  5.2 %  5.9 % 5.9 % 6.0 %  2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 
 

 CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT  9  Illustrative Financial Projections  Dawn EV-Equity Bridge  Source: Dawn filings, Dusk Management assumptions, external adviser DD reports, merger agreement1 Assumes valuation of Financial Services segment at 1.0x P/B multiple. 2 Based on net income attributable to minorities of $22m (FY19 level) in perpetuity discounted at cost of equity (10.8%). For reference: Balance sheet value as of Jul-2020 is $2m.  Source    Dawn 10-Q as of 31-Jul-2020, p. E-10  Dawn 10-Q as of 31-Jul-2020, p. E-10  Dawn 10-Q as of 31-Jul-2020, p. E-10  Dawn 10-Q as of 31-Jul-2020, p. E-10  Dawn 10-Q as of 31-Jul-2020, p. 7  Proxy based on Dusk Mgmt Projections2  Based on $44.50 offer price  Dusk estimates based on Legal / Financial DD  Item  Amount ($m)  (+) Industrial Financial Debt  3,532  (-) Industrial Cash and Cash Equivalents  (1,610)  (-) Financial Services Book Equity1  (647)  (+) Pension Underfunding / OPEB liabilities  2,013  (-) Equity Investments @ book  (30)  (+) Non-controlling Interest  203  (+) Cash-Settled RSUs and Cash-Settled Equity Grants  29  Subtotal: Dusk Due Dilligence Findings  3  Total EV-Equity Items  3,493 
 

 CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT  III.  Preliminary Illustrative Financial Analyses 
 

                       CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT    Illustrative Price per Share  Comments  Illustrative Summary of Financial AnalysesBased on Dusk Management Projections  Source: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, public filings, Dusk Management projections1 Valuation date: 31-Jul-2020. 2 Last undisturbed date.    Valuation Methodologies    Reference Only Valuation Methodologies  $44.50      1A      1B    2            Discounted Cash Flow $24(Standalone Case)1  Terminal Year Ind. EBIT margin: 6.0%$42  Perpetual Growth Rate: 1.0-2.0%WACC range: 8.0-9.0%Implied LTM / Terminal Year EBIT multiple: 8.8-11.8x    Discounted Cash Flow $45(Buyer Case)1          Terminal Year Ind. EBIT margin: 8.0%$69  Perpetual Growth Rate: 1.0-2.0%WACC range: 8.0-9.0%Implied LTM / Terminal Year EBIT multiple: 7.1-9.5x        Public Market Premia $37  High: 40% premium on last undisturbed 90-day VWAP ($29.37$41 at 30-Jan-2020²)Low: 30% premium to Dawn share price implied by trading of peers (Paccar/Volvo) ($28.20 average since 30-Jan-2020²)    Public Company Trading $26  High: EV/Ind. EBIT 2022E 11.6x (Paccar, 06-Nov-2020)$39  Low: EV/Ind. EBIT 2022E 9.5x (Volvo, 06-Nov-2020)Underlying: Dawn FY22 Ind. Adj. EBIT (for valuation) of $641m (as per Buyer Case)    52-Week Trading Range $22 as of 30-Jan-20202  $39  High: $39 (01-Mar-2019)Low: $22 (27-Aug-2019)Undisturbed share price: $24.07 (30-Jan-2020²)    Analyst Price Targets $29as of 30-Jan-20202  $45  High: $45 (Jefferies)Low: $29 (Morningstar)    11  Preliminary Illustrative Financial Analyses 
 

 CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT  Illustrative Discounted Cash Flow AnalysisDawn Industrial Business – Standalone Case for Dawn  Source: Public filings, Dusk Management projectionsNote: Free cash flow discounted to 31-Jul-2020 using mid-year convention for cash flows. Terminal value calculated as of 31-Oct-2025. EV-Equity bridge (as of Jul-2020) includes financial debt of $3,532m, cash and cash equivalents of $(1,610)m, $(647)m financial services book value (1.0x P/B), $2,013m unfunded pension obligations and OPEB liabilities, $(30)m equity investments, $203m non-controlling interest, cash settlement of existing cash-settled RSUs and cash-settled equity grants of $21m at $32 per share mid-point. EV-EqV Bridge also reflects due diligence findings of $3m.1 FCF derived based on the following assumptions, as per Dusk management assumptions: (i) tax rate of 26.0%, (ii) change in net working capital calculated based on the assumption of net working capital as % of sales of c. 0.1% for all years incl. Terminal Year apart from Q4 2020E, (iii) capex % of sales in line with public guidance by Dawn, for Terminal Year 3.0% of sales as per Dusk management guidance, (iv) other cash flow items related to cash warranty expenses and off-balance sheet obligations in the forecast period, assumed to be equal to $0 in Terminal Year.    1    A  FYE October  Historical      Projected              2018  2019 9M 20A    Q4 20E 2021    2022  2023  2024  2025  Revenue  10,090  11,061 5,310    1,890 8,208    9,931  11,382  12,425  12,675  % growth    9.6 %      14.0 %  21.0 %  14.6 %  9.2 %  2.0 %  Adj. EBITDA (for valuation)  678  719  132  33  448  707  876  948  1,014  % margin  6.7 %  6.5 %  2.5 %  1.7 %  5.5 %  7.1 %  7.7 %  7.6 %  8.0 %  Adj. EBIT (for valuation)  522  590  34  (9)  286  518  674  737  764  % margin  5.2 %  5.3 %  0.6 %  (0.5)%  3.5 %  5.2 %  5.9 %  5.9 %  6.0 %  Unlevered FCF 1        8  33  339  505  522  439        TY12,2351.5 %1,0989.0 %7346.0 %540                                  Equity Value per Share ($)  12  Preliminary Illustrative Financial Analyses        Perpetuity Growth Rate          Perpetuity Growth Rate        1.0 %  1.5 %  2.0 %      1.0 %  1.5 %  2.0 %    8.0 %  $ 33  $ 37  $ 42    8.0 %  10.1 x  10.9 x  11.8 x  WACC  8.4 %  $ 29  $ 32  $ 36  WACC  8.4 %  9.5 x  10.2 x  11.0 x    9.0 %  $ 24  $ 27  $ 30    9.0 %  8.8 x  9.4 x  10.1 x  Implied LTM / Terminal Year EBIT Multiple 
 

 CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT  Illustrative Discounted Cash Flow AnalysisDawn Industrial Business – Buyer Case for Dawn      1B  FYE October  Historical      Projected              2018  2019 9M 20A    Q4 20E 2021    2022  2023  2024  2025  Revenue  10,090  11,061 5,310    1,890 8,208    9,931  11,517  12,742  13,953  % growth    9.6 %      14.0 %  21.0 %  16.0 %  10.6 %  9.5 %  Adj. EBITDA (for valuation)  678  719  132  33  481  830  1,086  1,254  1,509  % margin  6.7 %  6.5 %  2.5 %  1.7 %  5.9 %  8.4 %  9.4 %  9.8 %  10.8 %  Adj. EBIT (for valuation)  522  590  34  (9)  319  641  883  1,043  1,260  % margin  5.2 %  5.3 %  0.6 %  (0.5)%  3.9 %  6.5 %  7.7 %  8.2 %  9.0 %  Unlevered FCF 1        8  57  430  660  749  808        TY12,2351.5 %1,34211.0 %9798.0 %721                                  Equity Value per Share ($)  Source: Public filings, Dusk Management projectionsNote: Free cash flow discounted to 31-Jul-2020 using mid-year convention for cash flows. Terminal value calculated as of 31-Oct-2025. EV-Equity bridge (as of Jul-2020) includes financial debt of $3,532m, cash and cash equivalents of $(1,610)m, $(647)m financial services book value (1.0x P/B), $2,013m unfunded pension obligations and OPEB liabilities, $(30)m equity investments, $203m non-controlling interest, cash settlement of existing cash-settled RSUs and cash-settled equity grants of $36m at $56 per share mid-point. EV-EqV Bridge also reflects due diligence findings of $3m.1 FCF derived based on the following assumptions, as per Dusk management assumptions: (i) tax rate of 26.0%, (ii) change in net working capital calculated based on the assumption of net working capital as % of sales of c. 0.1% for all years incl. Terminal Year apart from Q4 2020E, (iii) capex % of sales in line with public guidance by Dawn, for Terminal Year 3.0% of sales as per Dusk management guidance, (iv) other cash flow items related to cash warranty expenses and off-balance sheet obligations in the forecast period, assumed to be equal to $0 in Terminal Year.  13  Preliminary Illustrative Financial Analyses        Perpetuity Growth Rate          Perpetuity Growth Rate        1.0 %  1.5 %  2.0 %      1.0 %  1.5 %  2.0 %    8.0 %  $ 57  $ 63  $ 69    8.0 %  8.2 x  8.8 x  9.5 x  WACC  8.4 %  $ 52  $ 56  $ 62  WACC  8.4 %  7.7 x  8.3 x  8.9 x    9.0 %  $ 45  $ 49  $ 54    9.0 %  7.1 x  7.6 x  8.2 x  Implied LTM / Terminal Year EBIT Multiple 
 

 CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT          31%  38%  Median  Average          32%  41%  Median  Average  Public Market Premia for Selected US Cash Transactions in 2014-2020YTD  Source: Dealogic, CapitallQ as of Nov-2020Note: Includes announced transactions in which the buyer (pre-deal ownership <50%) increases its ownership in an US target to >75% through an all-cash transaction. Premia based on share price one month prior to  Large Deals  All Deals            Deal Value  >$250m    >$2.5bn  # Deals  576    220    3rd quartile: 50%  1st quartile: 19%    3rd quartile: 48%  1st quartile: 18%    2  announcement.  14  Preliminary Illustrative Financial Analyses 
 

 CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT  Dawn  1  United States  1.691    1.69  1.30 1  1.131  2,3891  1,604  3,742  40 %  60 %  Paccar  United States  0.93    1.56  1.01  1.04  31,202  (4,413)  (4,413)  (16)%  116 %  Volvo  Sweden  1.37  1.31  2.14  1.03  1.44  44,729  (5,226)  (3,219)  (13)%  113 %  Median    1.15  1.31  1.85  1.02  1.24  37,965  (4,820)  (3,816)  (15)%  115 %  Peer Comparison ($m) Historical Beta   Company  Country  Axioma  Bloomberg Pro-forma Dawn PredictedMSCI Europe Capitalization Axioma Beta Asset Beta  Net Debt (excl.Market Cap pensions)  Net Debt(incl. Net Debt / Equity / pensions) Capital 2 Capital  Selected Comparable Companies  Illustrative Weighted Average Cost of Capital Analysis  Source: Dawn filings, Dusk Management assumptions, Axioma, Bloomberg, CapitalIQ as of 06-Nov-2020        As of 06-Nov-2020WACC Derivation WACC Sensitivity AnalysisCommentary    35%  40%  45%  1.49  8.0%  7.8%  7.5%  1.69  8.7%  8.4%  8.1%  1.89  9.5%  9.1%  8.7%   Capital Structure (Tax Rate: 26%)   Debt  Equity Beta      Risk-free Rate  1.4 %  Equity Beta  1.69  Equity Risk Premium  5.6 %  Cost of Equity  10.8 %  Pre-Tax Cost of Debt  6.5 %  Tax Rate  26.0 %  Post-Tax Cost of Debt  4.82 %  Equity / Capital  60.0%  Debt / Capital  40.0%  WACC  8.4 %                        Current yield of 20-yr US government bond (maturing Aug- 2040)  Dawn historical Axioma beta (2yr period, weekly) as of 30- Jan (last undisturbed)  US historical equity risk premium based on Duff & Phelps (GS-internal guidelines)  Yield of Dawn $1.1bn unsecured bond (due 2025) as of 30- Jan (last undisturbed)Long-term Dawn corporate cash tax rate as per Dusk / external advisor input  Dusk guidance on Dawn capital structure derived from current capitalization                        1 Dawn market cap, historical beta, asset beta and predicted beta as of 30-Jan-2020 (last undisturbed). 2 Excluding pensions.Preliminary Illustrative Financial Analyses  15