EX-99 2 pgr20190331exhibit99earnin.htm EXHIBIT 99 Exhibit
 
image0a04a01a48.jpg
 
 
NEWS RELEASE
 
 
 
 
The Progressive Corporation
 
 
Company Contact:
6300 Wilson Mills Road
 
 
Julia Hornack
Mayfield Village, Ohio 44143
 
 
(440) 395-2164
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

PROGRESSIVE REPORTS MARCH RESULTS

MAYFIELD VILLAGE, OHIO -- April 16, 2019 -- The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) today reported the following results for March and the first quarter of 2019:


 
 
 
March
 
 
Quarter
(millions, except per share amounts and ratios; unaudited)
2019
 
2018
 
Change
2019
 
2018
 
Change
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net premiums written
$
2,959.7

 
$
2,538.7

 
17
 %
$
9,239.9

 
$
7,968.8

 
16
%
Net premiums earned
$
2,668.6

 
$
2,279.7

 
17
 %
$
8,459.8

 
$
7,174.0

 
18
%
Net income attributable to Progressive
$
194.8

 
$
140.6

 
39
 %
$
1,078.4

 
$
718.0

 
50
%
  Per share available to common shareholders
$
0.33

 
$
0.24

 
38
 %
$
1.83

 
$
1.22

 
49
%
Total pretax net realized gains (losses) on securities
$
35.1

 
$
(89.7
)
 
(139)
 %
$
414.5

 
$
(48.2
)
 
NM

Combined ratio
87.0

 
90.3

 
(3.3) pts.

88.8

 
88.4

 
0.4 pts.
Average diluted equivalent common shares
586.6

 
585.7

 
0
 %
586.6

 
585.6

 
0
%
NM = Not Meaningful

(thousands; unaudited)
March
 
March
 
 
 
2019
 
2018
Change
Policies in Force
 
 
 
 
 
Vehicle businesses:
 
 
 
 
 
  Agency – auto
6,609.1
 
5,909.1
 
12 %
  Direct – auto
7,335.3
 
6,385.6
 
15 %
  Total personal auto
13,944.4
 
12,294.7
 
13 %
  Total special lines
4,402.1
 
4,286.2
 
3 %
  Total Personal Lines
18,346.5
 
16,580.9
 
11 %
  Total Commercial Lines
711.6
 
659.0
 
8 %
Property business
2,002.3
 
1,651.0
 
21 %
 
 
 
 
 
 

Progressive offers personal and commercial insurance throughout the United States. Our Personal Lines business writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products. Our Commercial Lines business writes primary liability, physical damage, and other auto-related insurance for autos and trucks owned and/or operated predominantly by small businesses. Our Property business writes residential property insurance for homeowners, other property owners, and renters.

See the “Comprehensive Income Statements” and “Supplemental Information” for further month and year-to-date information and
the "Monthly Commentary" at the end of this release for additional discussion.

- 1 -


THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
COMPREHENSIVE INCOME STATEMENT
March 2019
(millions)
(unaudited)

 
Current Month
 
Comments on Monthly Results1
Net premiums written
$
2,959.7

 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenues:
 
 
 
Net premiums earned
$
2,668.6

 
 
Investment income
86.8

 
 
Net realized gains (losses) on securities:
 
 
 
Net realized gains (losses) on security sales
13.3

 
 
Net holding period gains (losses) on securities
46.1

 
 
Net impairment losses recognized in earnings
(24.3
)
 
Represents write-down of investments in certain federal renewable energy tax credit funds; see Monthly Commentary for additional discussion.
Total net realized gains (losses) on securities
35.1

 
 
Fees and other revenues
43.3

 
 
Service revenues
15.1

 
 
Total revenues
2,848.9

 
 
 
 
 
 
Expenses:
 
 
 
Losses and loss adjustment expenses
1,778.7

 
 
Policy acquisition costs
223.7

 
 
Other underwriting expenses
361.7

 
 
Investment expenses
2.3

 
 
Service expenses
14.1

 
 
Interest expense
15.8

 
 
Total expenses
2,396.3

 
 
 
 
 
 
Income before income taxes
452.6

 
 
Provision for income taxes
256.6

 
Includes the reversal of previously recognized tax benefits on certain federal renewable energy tax credit fund investments; see Monthly Commentary for additional discussion.
Net income
196.0

 
 
Net (income) loss attributable to noncontrolling interest (NCI)
(1.2
)
 
 
Net income attributable to Progressive
194.8

 
 
 
 
 
 
Other comprehensive income (loss)
 
 
 
Changes in:
 
 
 
Total net unrealized gains (losses) on fixed-maturity securities
178.4

 
 
Net unrealized losses on forecasted transactions
0.1

 
 
Other comprehensive income (loss)
178.5

 
 
Other comprehensive (income) loss attributable to NCI
(1.8
)
 
 
Total comprehensive income attributable to Progressive
$
371.5

 
 
 
 
 
 
1 See the Monthly Commentary at the end of this release. For a description of our financial reporting and accounting policies, see Note 1 to our 2018 audited consolidated financial statements included in our 2018 Shareholders’ Report, which can be found at www.progressive.com/annualreport.

- 2 -


THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
COMPREHENSIVE INCOME STATEMENTS
March 2019
(millions)
(unaudited)


 
Year-to-Date
 
 
 
2019
 
2018
 
% Change
Net premiums written
$
9,239.9

 
$
7,968.8

 
16
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
Net premiums earned
$
8,459.8

 
$
7,174.0

 
18
Investment income
252.9

 
166.3

 
52
Net realized gains (losses) on securities:
 
 
 
 
 
Net realized gains (losses) on security sales
46.1

 
107.0

 
(57)
Net holding period gains (losses) on securities
392.7

 
(155.2
)
 
(353)
Net impairment losses recognized in earnings
(24.3
)
 
0

 
NM
Total net realized gains (losses) on securities
414.5

 
(48.2
)
 
NM
Fees and other revenues
130.2

 
103.8

 
25
Service revenues
42.6

 
34.2

 
25
Total revenues
9,300.0

 
7,430.1

 
25
 
 
 
 
 
 
Expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
Losses and loss adjustment expenses
5,759.0

 
4,870.8

 
18
Policy acquisition costs
710.6

 
596.2

 
19
Other underwriting expenses
1,171.2

 
980.2

 
19
Investment expenses
6.2

 
6.0

 
3
Service expenses
38.1

 
29.3

 
30
Interest expense
47.4

 
36.8

 
29
Total expenses
7,732.5

 
6,519.3

 
19
 
 
 
 
 
 
Income before income taxes
1,567.5

 
910.8

 
72
Provision for income taxes
484.7

 
181.0

 
168
Net income
1,082.8

 
729.8

 
48
Net (income) loss attributable to noncontrolling interest (NCI)
(4.4
)
 
(11.8
)
 
(63)
Net income attributable to Progressive
1,078.4

 
718.0

 
50
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other comprehensive income (loss)
 
 
 
 
 
Changes in:
 
 
 
 
 
Total net unrealized gains (losses) on fixed-maturity securities
301.1

 
(154.5
)
 
(295)
Net unrealized losses on forecasted transactions
0.2

 
0.2

 
0
Other comprehensive income (loss)
301.3

 
(154.3
)
 
(295)
Other comprehensive (income) loss attributable to NCI
(2.3
)
 
4.0

 
(158)
Total comprehensive income attributable to Progressive
$
1,377.4

 
$
567.7

 
143
 
 
 
 
 
 
NM = Not Meaningful

 
 
 
 
 


- 3 -


THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
COMPUTATION OF NET INCOME AND COMPREHENSIVE INCOME PER SHARE
&
INVESTMENT RESULTS
March 2019
(millions – except per share amounts)
(unaudited)




The following table sets forth the computation of per share results:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Current
 
Year-to-Date
 
 
Month
 
2019
 
2018
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income attributable to Progressive
$
194.8

 
$
1,078.4

 
$
718.0

 
Less: Preferred share dividends
2.2

 
6.7

 
1.2

 
Net income available to common shareholders
$
192.6

 
$
1,071.7

 
$
716.8

 
Per common share:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Basic
$
0.33

 
$
1.84

 
$
1.23

 
Diluted
$
0.33

 
$
1.83

 
$
1.22

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Comprehensive income (loss) attributable to Progressive
$
371.5

 
$
1,377.4

 
$
567.7

 
Less: Preferred share dividends
2.2

 
6.7

 
1.2

 
Comprehensive income (loss) attributable to common shareholders
$
369.3

 
$
1,370.7

 
$
566.5

 
Per common share:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Diluted
$
0.63

 
$
2.34

 
$
0.97

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Average common shares outstanding - Basic
583.5

 
583.5

 
582.0

 
Net effect of dilutive stock-based compensation
3.1

 
3.1

 
3.6

 
Total average equivalent common shares - Diluted
586.6

 
586.6

 
585.6

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

The following table sets forth the investment results for the period:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Current
 
Year-to-Date
 
 
 
Month
 
2019
 
2018
 
 
Fully taxable equivalent (FTE) total return:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fixed-income securities
1.0%
 
2.3%
 
(0.3)%
 
 
Common stocks
1.6%
 
13.3%
 
(0.3)%
 
 
     Total portfolio
1.1%
 
3.2%
 
(0.3)%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Pretax annualized investment income book yield
3.2%
 
3.1%
 
2.6%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 




- 4 -


THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
March 2019
($ in millions)
(unaudited)



Current Month
 
Vehicles
 
 
 
 
 
 
Commercial
 
 
 
Personal Lines Business
Lines
Property
Companywide
 
Agency
Direct
Total
Business
Business
Total
Net Premiums Written
$
1,212.7

$
1,251.7

$
2,464.4

$
356.6

$
138.7

$
2,959.7

% Growth in NPW
13
%
18
%
16
%
25
%
16
%
17%
Net Premiums Earned
$
1,098.3

$
1,124.5

$
2,222.8

$
319.7

$
126.1

$
2,668.6

% Growth in NPE
14
%
18
%
16
%
22
%
26%
17%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GAAP Ratios
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss/LAE ratio
67.2

67.9

67.5

59.6

69.31
66.7

Expense ratio
18.5

20.6

19.6

20.9

31.41
20.3

Combined ratio
85.7

88.5

87.1

80.5

100.71

87.0

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Actuarial Adjustments2
 
 
 
 
 
 
Reserve Decrease/(Increase)
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prior accident years
 
 
 
 
 
$
4.0

Current accident year
 
 
 
 
 
7.1

Calendar year actuarial adjustment
$
4.4

$
8.7

$
13.1

$
(1.5
)
$
(0.5
)
$
11.1

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prior Accident Years Development
 
 
 
 
 
 
Favorable/(Unfavorable)
 
 
 
 
 
 
Actuarial adjustment
 
 
 
 
 
$
4.0

All other development
 
 
 
 
 
7.9

Total development
 
 
 
 
 
$
11.9

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Calendar year loss/LAE ratio
 
 
 
 
 
66.7

Accident year loss/LAE ratio
 
 
 
 
 
67.1

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

1 The loss/LAE ratio reflects 31.2 points from recording a reinsurance recoverable under our aggregate stop-loss agreements, which covers certain ARX losses and a portion of the LAE associated with those losses. The expense ratio includes 4.8 points of amortization expense predominately associated with the acquisition of a controlling interest in ARX. Excluding these items, the Property business would have reported a loss/LAE ratio of 100.5, which includes about 42 points from catastrophe losses (see Monthly Commentary for further discussion), an expense ratio of 26.6, and a combined ratio of 127.1 for March 2019.

2 Represents adjustments solely based on our actuarial reviews. For our Property business, the actuarial reserving methodology includes changes to catastrophe losses, while the reviews in our vehicle businesses do not include catastrophes.






- 5 -


THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
March 2019
($ in millions)
(unaudited)



Year-to-Date
 
Vehicles
 
 
 
 
 
 
Commercial
 
 
 
Personal Lines Business
Lines
Property
Companywide
 
Agency
Direct
Total
Business
Business
Total
Net Premiums Written
$
3,766.4

$
3,956.1

$
7,722.5

$
1,165.2

$
352.2

$
9,239.9

% Growth in NPW
13
%
16
%
14
%
26
%
19
%
16%
Net Premiums Earned
$
3,508.5

$
3,576.3

$
7,084.8

$
1,013.0

$
362.0

$
8,459.8

% Growth in NPE
15
%
19
%
17
%
25
%
27%
18%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GAAP Ratios
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss/LAE ratio
67.8

69.9

68.9

62.7

68.1
68.1

Expense ratio
19.3

21.1

20.2

20.9

29.81
20.7

Combined ratio
87.1

91.0

89.1

83.6

97.91

88.8

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Actuarial Adjustments2
 
 
 
 
 
 
Reserve Decrease/(Increase)
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prior accident years
 
 
 
 
 
$
(16.7
)
Current accident year
 
 
 
 
 
13.3

Calendar year actuarial adjustment
$
(1.1
)
$
1.0

$
(0.1
)
$
(0.3
)
$
(3.0
)
$
(3.4
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prior Accident Years Development
 
 
 
 
 
 
Favorable/(Unfavorable)
 
 
 
 
 
 
Actuarial adjustment
 
 
 
 
 
$
(16.7
)
All other development
 
 
 
 
 
(125.9
)
Total development
 
 
 
 
 
$
(142.6
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Calendar year loss/LAE ratio
 
 
 
 
 
68.1

Accident year loss/LAE ratio
 
 
 
 
 
66.4

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

1 Included in both the expense ratio and combined ratio is 5.0 points of amortization expense predominately associated with the acquisition of a controlling interest in ARX. Excluding these additional expenses, the Property business would have reported an expense ratio of 24.8 and a combined ratio of 92.9.

2 Represents adjustments solely based on our actuarial reviews. For our Property business, the actuarial reserving methodology includes changes to catastrophe losses, while the reviews in our vehicle businesses do not include catastrophes.






- 6 -


THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
BALANCE SHEET AND OTHER INFORMATION
(millions - except per share amounts)
(unaudited)

 
March 2019
CONDENSED GAAP BALANCE SHEET:
 
Investments, at fair value:
 
Available-for-sale securities:
 
Fixed maturities1 (amortized cost: $27,574.5)
$
27,821.9

Short-term investments (amortized cost: $2,584.7)
2,584.7

Total available-for-sale securities
30,406.6

Equity securities:
 
Nonredeemable preferred stocks (cost: $1,021.1)
1,095.4

Common equities (cost: $1,194.3)
3,010.5

Total equity securities
4,105.9

Total investments2,3
34,512.5

Net premiums receivable
7,189.8

Reinsurance recoverables (including $2,708.4 on unpaid loss and LAE reserves)
2,842.8

Deferred acquisition costs
999.1

Goodwill and intangible assets
729.4

Other assets2
2,576.7

Total assets
$
48,850.3

 
 
Unearned premiums
$
11,603.6

Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves
15,876.6

Other liabilities
4,632.8

Debt
4,405.4

Total liabilities
36,518.4

Redeemable noncontrolling interest (NCI)
221.2

Shareholders' equity
12,110.7

Total liabilities, NCI, and shareholders' equity
$
48,850.3

 
 
 
 
Common shares outstanding
584.0

Common shares repurchased - March
0

Average cost per common share
$
0

Book value per common share
$
19.89

Trailing 12-month return on average common shareholders' equity
 
Net income attributable to Progressive
27.1
%
Comprehensive income attributable to Progressive
30.4
%
Net unrealized pretax gains (losses) on fixed-maturity securities
$
246.9

Increase (decrease) from February 2019
$
225.8

Increase (decrease) from December 2018
$
381.1

Debt-to-total capital ratio4
26.7
%
Fixed-income portfolio duration
2.6

Weighted average credit quality
AA-

1 As of March 31, 2019, we held certain hybrid securities and recognized a change in fair value of $0.5 million as a realized gain during the period we held these securities.
2 At March 31, 2019, we had $76.5 million of net unsettled security transactions classified in "other assets."
3 Includes $1.2 billion, net of unsettled security transactions, of investments in a consolidated, non-insurance subsidiary of the holding company.
4 Ratio reflects debt as a percent of debt plus shareholders' equity; redeemable noncontrolling interest is not part of this calculation.

- 7 -




Monthly Commentary
During March, on a companywide basis, we incurred about $46 million, or 1.7 loss ratio points, of catastrophe losses, compared to $40 million, or 1.8 loss ratio points, last year. Approximately $29 million of the catastrophe losses were from our vehicle businesses and $17 million (13 points on our Property business combined ratio), net of a $36 million reinsurance recoverable from our aggregate stop-loss agreement related to the 2019 accident year, were from our Property business. On a gross basis, wind and hail storms in Texas accounted for nearly 60% of our total catastrophe losses during the month. Our year-to-date total catastrophe losses were approximately $72 million, or 0.8 points, compared to $49 million, or 0.7 points, last year.
Our March and first quarter 2019 results include an increase to our provision for income taxes of $156.1 million, principally reflecting the reversal of the tax credits and other tax benefits previously recognized from certain renewable energy investments, plus interest, along with an additional write down of the related investments in the amount of $24.3 million due to other-than-temporary impairment losses. From 2016 to 2018, we invested in federal renewable energy tax credit funds. In late December 2018 and during the first two months of 2019, we learned of allegations of potential fraudulent conduct by the sponsor of three of these tax credit fund investments, including information about ongoing federal investigations. We referred to these matters in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2018. Based on our continuing investigations and information that has become available to us, we now believe the sponsor did commit fraud through these three tax credit funds, that the tax credits and other tax benefits related to those investments are not valid, and that our investments in those funds will not generate the cash flows that we anticipated.

Events
We are currently scheduled to hold our quarterly Investor Relations event on Thursday, May 2, 2019, at 1:30 p.m. eastern time. The call and live webcast is scheduled to last 90 minutes and will begin with an approximate 45 minute presentation on our investment strategy presented by two senior Portfolio Managers, Jonathan Bauer and Richard Madigan, followed by a question and answer session with Tricia Griffith, our CEO, and John Sauerland, our CFO. We plan to post our Shareholders' Report online and file our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q with the SEC on Wednesday, May 1, 2019. Teleconference and webcast details are available at: http://investors.progressive.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=81824&p=irol-calendar.

We plan to release April results on Wednesday, May 15, 2019, before the market opens.

About Progressive
The Progressive Group of Insurance Companies makes it easy to understand, buy and use auto insurance. Progressive offers choices so consumers can reach us whenever, wherever and however it's most convenient - online at progressive.com, by phone at 1-800-PROGRESSIVE, on a mobile device or in-person with a local agent.

Progressive provides insurance for personal and commercial autos and trucks, motorcycles, boats, recreational vehicles, and homes. Home insurance is underwritten by select carriers, including American Strategic Insurance Corp. and subsidiaries (ASI), our majority owned subsidiaries.
 
Progressive is the third largest auto insurer in the country; a leading seller of motorcycle and commercial auto insurance; and through ASI, one of the top 15 homeowners insurance carriers.

Founded in 1937, Progressive continues its long history of offering shopping tools and services that save customers time and money, like Name Your Price®, Snapshot®, and HomeQuote Explorer®.

The Common Shares of The Progressive Corporation, the Mayfield Village, Ohio-based holding company, trade publicly at NYSE:PGR.

- 8 -





Safe Harbor Statement Under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: Investors are cautioned that certain statements in this report not based upon historical fact are forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements often use words such as “estimate,” “expect,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” and other words and terms of similar meaning, or are tied to future periods, in connection with a discussion of future operating or financial performance. Forward-looking statements are based on current expectations and projections about future events, and are subject to certain risks, assumptions and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed herein. These risks and uncertainties include, without limitation, uncertainties related to estimates, assumptions, and projections generally; inflation and changes in general economic conditions (including changes in interest rates and financial markets); the possible failure of one or more governmental, corporate, or other entities to make scheduled debt payments or satisfy other obligations; our ability to access capital markets and financing arrangements when needed to support growth or other capital needs, and the favorable evaluations by credit and other rating agencies on which this access depends; the potential or actual downgrading by one or more rating agencies of our securities or governmental, corporate, or other securities we hold; the financial condition of, and other issues relating to the strength of and liquidity available to, issuers of securities held in our investment portfolios and other companies with which we have ongoing business relationships, including reinsurers and other counterparties to certain financial transactions or under certain government programs; the accuracy and adequacy of our pricing, loss reserving, and claims methodologies; the competitiveness of our pricing and the effectiveness of our initiatives to attract and retain more customers, including our efforts to enter into new business areas with which we have less experience; initiatives by competitors and the effectiveness of our response; our ability to obtain regulatory approval for the introduction of products to new jurisdictions, for requested rate changes and the timing thereof and for any proposed acquisitions; the effectiveness of our brand strategy and advertising campaigns relative to those of competitors; legislative and regulatory developments at the state and federal levels, including, but not limited to, matters relating to vehicle and homeowners insurance, health care reform and tax law changes; the outcome of disputes relating to intellectual property rights; the outcome of litigation or governmental investigations that may be pending or filed against us; severe weather conditions and other catastrophe events, and our ability to respond to changes in catastrophe loss trends; the effectiveness of our reinsurance programs; changes in vehicle usage and driving patterns, which may be influenced by oil and gas prices, changes in residential occupancy patterns, and the effects of the emerging “sharing economy”; advancements in vehicle or home technology or safety features, such as accident and loss prevention technologies or the development of autonomous or partially autonomous vehicles; our ability to accurately recognize and appropriately respond in a timely manner to changes in loss frequency and severity trends; technological advances; acts of war and terrorist activities; our ability to maintain the uninterrupted operation of our facilities, systems (including information technology systems), and business functions, and safeguard personal and sensitive information in our possession, whether from cyber attacks, other technology events or other means; our continued access to and functionality of third-party systems that are critical to our business; our ability to maintain adequate staffing levels, and the sources from which we obtain talent; our continued ability to access cash accounts and/or convert securities into cash on favorable terms when we desire to do so; restrictions on our subsidiaries’ ability to pay dividends to The Progressive Corporation; possible impairment of our goodwill or intangible assets if future results do not adequately support either, or both, of these items; court decisions, new theories of insurer liability or interpretations of insurance policy provisions and other trends in litigation; changes in health care and auto and property repair costs; and other matters described from time to time in our releases and publications, and in our periodic reports and other documents filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, investors should be aware that generally accepted accounting principles prescribe when a company may reserve for particular risks, including litigation exposures. Accordingly, results for a given reporting period could be significantly affected if and when a reserve is established for one or more contingencies. Also, our regular reserve reviews may result in adjustments of varying magnitude as additional information regarding claims activity becomes known. Reported results, therefore, may be volatile in certain accounting periods.


- 9 -