EX-99.1 2 powerpointtext.htm POWERPOINT TEXT powerpointtext.htm
 



Petroleum Development Corporation
2008 Analyst Day
February 7, 2008
NASDAQ GSM: PETD

Disclaimer
The following information contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on Management’s current expectations and beliefs, as well as a number of assumptions concerning future events.

These statements are based on certain assumptions and analyses made by Management in light of its experience and its perception of historical trends, current conditions and expected future developments as well as other factors it believes are appropriate in the circumstances.  However, whether actual results and developments will conform with Management’s expectations and predictions is subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, general economic, market or business conditions; the opportunities (or lack thereof) that may be presented to and pursued by Petroleum Development Corporation; actions by competitors; changes in laws or regulations; and other factors, many of which are beyond the control of Petroleum Development Corporation.

You are cautioned not to put undue reliance on such forward-looking statements because actual results may vary materially from those expressed or implied, as more fully discussed in our safe harbor statements found in our SEC filings, including, without limitation, the discussion under the heading “Risk Factors” in the company’s annual report on Form 10-K. All forward-looking statements are based on information available to Management on this date and Petroleum Development Corporation assumes no obligation to, and expressly disclaims any obligation to, update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

The SEC permits oil and gas companies to disclose in their filings with the SEC only proved reserves, which are reserve estimates that geological and engineering data demonstrate with reasonable certainty to be recoverable in future years from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions. The Company uses in this presentation the terms “probable” and “possible” reserves, which SEC guidelines prohibit in filings of U.S. registrants. Probable reserves are unproved reserves that are more likely than not to be recoverable. Possible reserves are unproved reserves that are less likely to be recoverable than probable reserves. Estimates of probable and possible reserves which may potentially be recoverable through additional drilling or recovery techniques are by nature more uncertain than estimates of proved reserves and accordingly are subject to substantially greater risk of not actually being realized by the Company. In addition, the Company’s production forecasts and expectations for future periods are dependent upon many assumptions, including estimates of production decline rates from existing wells and the undertaking and outcome of future drilling activity, which may be affected by significant commodity price declines or drilling cost increases.

This material also contains certain non-GAAP financial measures as defined under the Securities and Exchange Commission rules.


 
 

 

Welcome
·  
Celesta Miracle, VP Investor Relations and Communications
·  
Introductions
o  
Steve Williams, Chairman and CEO
o  
Rick McCullough, Vice Chairman and CFO
o  
Eric Stearns, Executive Vice President of Exploration and Production

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Presentation Overview
·  
YE 2007 snapshot, history and elements of strategy
o  
Steve Williams
·  
Areas of operations, opportunities and operating parameters, reserves
o  
Eric Stearns
·  
Preliminary 2007 Results, 2008 Guidance, 2008-2010 Outlook
o  
Rick McCullough

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2008 Analyst Day
Steve Williams, Chairman and CEO

Company Snapshot
·  
Market Cap (12/31/07)
o  
$ 881 million
·  
2007 Year-end Proved Reserves 686 Bcfe
·  
3-P Reserves @ YE2007
o  
1.044 TCFE*
·  
Annual Production
o  
28 Bcfe (2007)
·  
Rocky Mountains
o  
2007 Proved Reserves: 559 Bcfe
o  
2006 Production: 14.1 Bcfe
o  
2007 Production: 23.5 Bcfe
·  
Michigan Basin
o  
2007 Proved Reserves: 24 Bcfe
o  
Production: 1.4 Bcfe
o  
Production: 1.7 Bcfe
·  
Barnett Shale
o  
Exploratory project
o  
December 2007/January drilling- 2 horizontal wells
·  
Appalachian Basin
o  
2006 Proved Reserves: 103 Bcfe
o  
2006 Production:  1.5 Bcfe
o  
Production: 2.7 Bcfe

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements
See Slide 27 regarding reserves included in probably and possible categories.

 
 

 
 
PDC Investment Theme
·  
PDC has
o  
Large inventory of low-risk, high quality development prospects in Colorado
o  
Staff and expertise to predictably execute the development plan
o  
Capital to fund development at aggressive 2007 levels through 2010
·  
The Company is positioned for significant value creation in 2008 and beyond without any additions to its prospect inventory
·  
Acquisitions, exploration or exploitation success in the Barnett or Marcellus shale or other new areas will add to anticipated future reserves and production levels

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Additional 2008 Value Enhancers
·  
Improving margin on production
o  
Increased Rocky Mountain gas pricing with start-up of Rocky Mountain Express pipeline (December 2007)
o  
G&A unit costs decreasing with increasing production rates
o  
Production unit costs decreasing with increasing production rates
·  
Potential exploration and exploitation success in new areas
·  
Possible acquisitions

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Recent Developments
·  
Priced $203 million of senior notes due in 2018 at 12%
·  
Announced Company will not offer a 2008 drilling partnership
·  
Sold Bakken Shale acreage in North Dakota for $34.7 million
·  
Named Rick McCullough to succeed Steve Williams as CEO later in 2008
·  
Considering formation of MLP
·  
Monitoring market developments

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Overview
·  
Pre 2007 growth was through partnerships and drilling and acquisitions
o  
High growth with low financial risk
o  
Began E&P transition in 2002
·  
$354 million Piceance sale in July 2006 was a transformational event
o  
$ 192M in acquisitions completed in early 2007 through like-kind exchange
o  
Monetized unrecognized value
o  
Increased 2007 capital expenditures to ~$270 million from $148  Million in 2006
o  
Increasing use of debt in capital structure
·  
E&P will underpin future growth
o  
Accelerated development of high-quality prospect inventory
o  
Bolt-on acquisitions
o  
Limited exploration (~10% of capital budget)

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

 
 

 

Business Segments
·  
Business divided into four main segments :
o  
Oil and Gas Sales
o  
Drilling and Development
o  
Natural Gas Marketing
o  
Well Operations

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Business Segment Contribution {Graphic}
·  
Decreasing relative impact of Drilling and Development and increasing impact of Oil & Gas Sales reflect transition from drilling program syndicator to E&P company away from partnership syndication

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Core Operating Regions {Graphic}
Rocky Mountains
2007 Proved Reserves:
559 Bcfe
2006 Production:
14.1 Bcfe
2007 Production:
23.5 Bcfe
Michigan Basin
2007 Proved Reserves:
24 Bcfe
2006 Production:
1.4 Bcfe
2007 Production:
1.7 Bcfe
Appalachian Basin
2007 Proved Reserves:
103 Bcfe
2006 Production:
1.5 Bcfe
2007 Production:
2.7 Bcfe

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Energy Market Exposure  {Graphic}
 
Percentage of Sales by Market (Sales in Mcf equivalents as of 9/30/07)
Oil:
21.6%
Northern Border:
0.5%
Midcontinent:
14.3%
Colorado Liquids:
3.0%
Nymex Gas:
12.4%
Michigan:
5.9%
Colorado:
42.3%

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Consistent Growth {Graphic}
·  
PDC has had consistent reserve and production growth through developmental drilling, opportunistic acquisitions and focusing on core operational efficiencies

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements
Drilling Activity
·  
Low risk drilling inventory results in high completion rates

 
Total Wells
 
Total
 
% Productive
 
Year
Drilled
Net
 
Drilled
Net
2002
70.0
13.7
 
100%
100%
2003
111.0
29.5
 
99%
97%
2004
158.0
45.0
 
96%
98%
2005
242.0
110.7
 
97%
95%
2006
231.0
137.7
 
97%
97%
2007
343.0
277.0
 
95%
96%

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

YE2007 Proved Reserve Summary
·  
Added to Reserves and Production through acquisitions and development in 2007
·  
2007 acquisitions added 195 Bcfe proved reserves

Summary Reserve Data
 
Proved Reserves (Bcfe) (1)
     
 
2006 YE
2007 YE
% Growth
% Developed
% Natural Gas
Rockies
175.5
558.6
195%
47.0%
83.6%
Appalachia
36.0
102.7
185%
72.4%
99.8%
Michigan
21.2
24.3
15%
100%
98.6%
Total
322.7
685.6
112%
53.6%
86.6%

1)  
Independent reserve engineer’s estimates

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Unproved Potential
·  
Over 358 Bcfe of Probable and Possible Reserves for Future Development
o  
Grand Valley offset locations
o  
Wattenberg field locations (5th spot, rule 318A and 40 acre locations)
o  
Locations identified by seismic and offsets to producing wells in NE Colorado

{Graphic} Distribution of 2P and 3P Reserves
o  
Piceance Basin 57%
o  
NE Colorado 15%
o  
Wattenberg Field 28%

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements
See Slide 2 regarding reserve estimate limitations


 
 

 

Key Value Drivers
·  
Proven Track Record
o  
5-year 940% return to shareholders through stock price appreciation (1/03- 12/07)
o  
66% year-over-year production growth (2006-2007)
o  
112% year-over-year reserve growth (2006-2007)
·  
Visible Built-in-Growth
o  
More than 1 Tcfe of 3P reserves provides significant near-term growth potential
o  
Large multi-year, low risk drilling inventory
o  
Investments in new areas with substantial growth potential
·  
Strong Financial Position
o  
Strong balance sheet
o  
Debt-to-cap 27% (12/31/2007)

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Growth Strategy
·  
PDC’s primary goal is to create economic value by continuing to grow reserves, production, net income and cash flow
·  
To increase these key performance measures
o  
PDC maintains an active drilling program focusing on low-risk development of gas and oil reserves
o  
Acquires producing properties with development potential
o  
Limited exploratory drilling

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2008 and Beyond
·  
Develop operations in core areas
o  
Integrate and accelerate development of legacy and acquired properties
·  
Identify and execute strategic acquisitions
o  
Bolt-on acquisitions in core areas
o  
Acquisitions with similar geologic and operational characteristics to bootstrap new areas
·  
Pursue select high potential exploration and exploitation opportunities
·  
Maintain focus on increasing long-term stakeholder value

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2008 Analyst Day
Eric Stearns, EVP, Exploration & Production

2007 Operations Highlights
Operations CAPEX
$261M
Net Production
28 Bcfe
Proved Reserves
686 Bcfe
Total 3P Reserves
1.04 Tcfe
Wells Drilled
356 Gross 278 Net
Re-Completions/Fracs
165 Gross 160 Net

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements
 
2007 CAPEX Summary
Development Net Capital
$224M
Exploration, Land, G&G
$24M
Misc. Capital
$12M
Total Net Capital
$261M

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2007 Production Summary

2007 Forecast by Area (MMcfe)
Area
1Q Actual
1Q Forecast
2Q Actual
2Q Forecast
3Q Actual
3Q Forecast
4Q Actual
4Q Forecast
Total Actual
Total Forecast
Rocky Mtn
4,290
4,435
5,322
5,041
6,683
6,794
7232
7,405
23,527
23,675
Appalachian
617
625
687
640
610
680
830
689
2,744
2,634
Michigan
426
415
427
424
428
456
423
459
1,704
1,754
Total
5,333
5,475
6,436
6,105
7,721
7,930
8,485
8,553
27,975
28,063

2007 Rocky Mountain Forecast by Area (MMcfe)
Area
1Q Actual
1Q Forecast
2Q Actual
2Q Forecast
3Q Actual
3Q Forecast
4Q Actual
4Q Forecast
Total Actual
Total Forecast
Wattenberg
2,209
2,314
2,623
2,586
2,963
3,149
3337
3,361
11,132
11,410
Grand Valley
1,246
1,064
1,590
1,245
2,622
2,086
2770
2,094
8,228
6,489
NECO
677
834
942
954
960
1,203
1030
1,492
3,609
4,483
North Dakota
158
224
165
256
138
355
95
458
556
1,293
Total
4,290
4,436
5,320
5,041
6,683
6,793
7,232
7,405
23,525
23,675

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

YE2007 Proved Reserves
 
MMcfe
MMcf Gas
Mbo Oil
Proved Developed
367,688
314,123
8,927
   
85%
15%
Proved Undeveloped
317,904
279,440
6,411
   
88%
12%
Total Proved
685,592
593,563
15,338
   
87%
13%

·  
Net Weighted Average Oil Price $80 / Bbl
·  
Net Weighted Average Gas Price $6.75 / Mcf
o  
Year-end Nymex less applicable area differential

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements


 
 

 

YE2007 3P Reserve Summary

 
Proved Dev Producing
Proved Dev Non-Producing
Proved Undeveloped
Probable
Possible
 
Oil
Gas
Mmcfe
Oil
Gas
Mmcfe
Oil
Gas
Mmcfe
Oil
Gas
Mmcfe
Oil
Gas
Mmcfe
Appalachian Basin
35
59,295
59,502
0
21,060
21,060
0
22,115
22,115
0
0
0
0
0
0
Michigan
58
23,492
23,839
0
487
487
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Wattenberg
4,633
42,762
70,558
3,840
24,465
47,507
6,210
40,729
77,988
7,102
43,354
85,965
1,446
6,953
15,629
Piceance
99
83,126
83,718
8
8,201
8,250
201
200,988
202,204
148
148,478
149,369
55
54,705
55,034
NE Colorado
0
43,330
43,330
0
7,612
7,612
0
15,598
15,598
0
27,468
27,468
0
24,860
24,860
ND Bakken Shale
138
29
854
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
ND Burbak Nesson
106
263
902
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Powder River Basin
5
0
29
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
ND Non-Operated
6
2
40
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Total All Fields
5,079
252,298
282,771
3,849
61,825
84,916
6,411
279,440
317,904
7,250
219,299
262,801
1,501
86,518
95,523

 
Proved Developed
Total Proved
Total 2P
Total 3P
 
Oil
Gas
Mmcfe
Oil
Gas
Mmcfe
Oil
Gas
Mmcfe
Oil
Gas
Mmcfe
Appalachian Basin
35
80,355
80,563
35
102,470
102,678
35
102,470
102,678
35
102,470
102,678
Michigan
58
23,979
24,326
58
23,979
24,326
58
23,979
24,326
58
23,979
24,326
Wattenberg
8,473
67,227
118,065
14,683
107,956
196,052
21,784
151,310
282,017
23,231
158,263
297,646
Piceance
107
91,327
91,968
308
292,324
294,171
456
440,802
443,540
511
495,507
498,573
NE Colorado
0
50,942
50,942
0
66,540
66,540
0
94,007
94,007
0
118,867
118,867
ND Bakken Shale
138
29
854
138
29
854
138
29
854
138
29
854
ND Burbak Nesson
106
263
902
106
263
902
106
263
902
106
263
902
Powder River Basin
5
0
29
5
0
29
5
0
29
5
0
29
ND Non-Operated
6
2
40
6
2
40
6
2
40
6
2
40
Total All Fields
8,927
314,123
367,688
15,338
593,563
685,592
22,588
812,862
948,393
24,089
899,380
1,043,915
 
See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements
 
2007 Drilling Summary (Operated Wells)

Operating Area
Gross Wells
Net Wells
Appalachia
8
8
Michigan
3
3
Wattenberg
153
110
Grand Valley
53
42
NECO
122
111
North Dakota
3
2
Texas
1
1
Non-Operated
13
1
Total
356
278

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Historical Drilling Activity {Graphic}
2007 Re-Completion Summary
Area
# Projects
# Net Projects
Appalachian
30
30
Wattenberg Codell
45
44
Wattenberg Niobrara
62
61
Wattenberg Cod / Nio
28
25
Total
165
160

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2006-2007 Acquisition Summary
 
DJ Acquisitions
Partnership Buy-Back
Castle
Purchase Price
$160M
$58M
$53M
YE2007 Proved Reserves
105 Bcfe
50e Bcfe
31 Bcfe
Total 3P Reserves
152 Bcfe
50e Bcfe
47 Bcfe
Purchased Wells
379
Interest in 718
741
Drilled wells 2007
106
   
Re-Work Projects
89
   
Net Acres Acquired
20,200
 
39,640
        Developed
7,662
 
29,640
        Undeveloped
12,583
 
10,000
Proved Drilling Locations
266
 
188
Proved Re-Works
172
   
Probable Projects
394
 
32

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2008 Operations Forecast

2008 CAPEX
 
2007
2008
%Change
Development Net Capital (MM$)
224
194
-13%
Exploration, Land, G&G (MM$)
24
50
109%
Miscellaneous Capital (MM$)
12
11
-8%
Total Net Capital (MM$)
$261
$255
-2%

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2008 Operation and Production Forecast
CAPEX
$255M ($194M Drilling & Re-Works)
Net Production
38 Bcfe
Proved Reserves
750+ Bcfe
Total 3P Reserves
1.2+ Tcfe
Wells Drilled*
360 Gross / 330 Net
Re-Completions/Fracs
130 Gross / 116 Net

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements
Operations Forecast 2008 vs 2007
 
2007
2008
% Change
Total Net Production (BCFE)
28
38
36%
Net Exit Rate (MMCFE/D)
100
122
22%
Gross Exit Rate (MMCFE/D)
187
211
13%
Development Net Capital (MM$)
$224
$194
-13%
Number of Drilling Projects Gross (Net)*
356 (278)
360 (330)
5% (19%)
Number of Other Projects Gross (Net)*
165 (160)
130 (116)
-21% (-28%)

* Does not include exploitation / exploration wells

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2008 Estimated Production
Gas, Mmcf
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
Total
Castle
258
270
370
426
1,324
Appalachian
712
727
789
833
3,061
Michigan
383
382
382
378
1,526
Wattenberg
1,901
2,035
2,012
2,043
7,991
Piceance
2,817
2,782
3,443
3,723
12,765
NECO
1,077
1,370
1,583
1,735
5,765
Bakken
2
1
1
1
6
Nesson
10
17
14
21
63
Powder River
0
0
0
0
0
ND Non-Op
0
0
0
0
0
Total
7,159
7,585
8,595
9,161
32,500

Oil, Mbbl
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
Total
Castle
0
0
0
0
0
Appalachian
1
1
1
1
3
Michigan
1
1
1
1
4
Wattenberg
198
218
222
234
872
Piceance
3
3
2
2
10
NECO
0
0
0
0
0
Bakken
4
3
3
3
13
Nesson
3
8
7
12
30
Powder River
0
0
0
0
1
ND Non-Op
0
0
0
0
0
Total
209
234
237
252
932


 
 

 


Mmcfe
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
Total
Castle
258
270
370
426
1,324
Appalachian
716
732
793
838
3,078
Michigan
389
388
387
383
1,547
Wattenberg
3,088
3,344
3,347
3,446
13,224
Piceance
2,833
2,797
3,457
3,736
12,824
NECO
1,077
1,370
1,583
1,735
5,765
Bakken
23
21
20
18
83
Nesson
28
66
54
91
240
Powder River
1
1
1
1
4
ND Non-Op
1
1
1
1
3
Total
8,414
8,990
10,014
10,674
38,092

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Projected 2008 Production {Graphic}

Proposed Development Projects {Graphic}

2008 Operations by Area

 
Area
Drilling *
Gross (Net)
Re-Works
Gross (Net)
Net Production
(Bcfe)
Operated
Wells YE07
Appalachian
23 (23)
30 (25)
3.1
1361
Michigan
2 (2)
 
1.5
209
Wattenberg
115 (92)
100 (91)
13.2
1212
Grand Valley
42 (36)
 
12.8
227
NECO
125 (125)
 
5.8
457
North Dakota
3 (2)
 
0.4
7
Texas Barnett
     
1
Castle
50 (50)
 
1.3
741
Total
364 (334)
130 (116)
38.1
4215

* Does not include exploitation / exploration wells

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements


 
 

 

Acreage Inventory

AREA
Lease Gross
Acres
Lease Net Acres
Net Developed Acres
Net Undeveloped Acres
State
Grand Valley
7,804
7,804
2,994
4,810
Colorado
Wattenberg
64,953
63,486
47,440
13,143
Colorado
Neco
80,000
51,000
16,800
34,200
Colorado
Neco
24,539
23,000
1,880
21,120
Kansas
Michigan
8,680
8,680
8,240
440
Michigan
New York
19,500
16,575
0
16,575
New York
North Dakota
101,267
68,474
4,767
59,972
North Dakota
Appalachian Basin
54,600
54,600
54,600
0
WV / PA
Castle Gas
39,640
39,640
29,640
10,000
Pennsylvania
Wyoming
31,945
31,945
0
31,945
Wyoming
Texas Barnett
10,804
8,868
0
8,868
Texas
Total
443,732
374,072
166,361
201,073
 
           
   
PDC TOTAL NET
367,434
 

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2008 Rockies Operating Areas
·  
Greater Wattenberg Field Area, DJ Basin
o  
Adams, Weld County, Colorado
§  
Niobrara, Codell, J Sand
·  
Grand Valley Field, Piceance Basin
o  
Garfield County, Colorado
§  
Mesaverde Section
·  
NECO Area, eastern DJ Basin
o  
Yuma County, Colorado & Cheyenne County, KS
§  
Niobrara
·  
North Dakota, Western Williston Basin
o  
Burke County
§  
Nesson, Midale, Bakken

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2008 Grand Valley Field {Graphic}


 
 

 

Grand Valley Field {Graphic}

·  
Operated wells year end                                                      227
·  
Remaining Acreage Developable  4,810
·  
481 - 10 acre locations
·  
372 PDC,  109 PDC and Partners (22 net PDC)  394 total net PDC
·  
Number of  net remaining locations
o  
Net PDC PUD                                           200
o  
Probable                                144
o  
Possible                                  50

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2008 Proposed Development - Grand Valley Field
 
 
2007
2008
% Change
Total Net Production (BCFE)
8.2
12.8
56%
Net Exit Rate (MMCFE/D)
35.4
43.0
21%
Total Net Capital (MM$)
$99.2
$74.0
-25%
Drilling Projects, Gross (Net)
53 (42)
42 (36)
-21%

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2008 Proposed Development - Grand Valley Projects {Graphic}

Project Profile - Grand Valley Drilling

IP Rate
1250 Mcfe/d
Production Profile
Hyperbolic
EUR
1500 Mmcfe
Life of Well
24.5 years
Severance Tax
2.05%
Ad Valorem Tax
3.43%
Production Expense
$2900/mo & $0.10/mcf
Gas Index
80% CIG; 20% MidCon
Gathering
($0.41)
BTU Factor
1.067
Fuel
3.9%
Capital Cost of Well
$2300k
Net Direct F&D Cost
$1.87/Mcfe
Working Interest
100%
NRI
82%

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Grand Valley Well Type Curve {Graphic}

Wattenberg Field {Graphic}

2008 Wattenberg Field

Operated wells year end
1212
Undeveloped acreage
13,143
Number of  remaining net locations
914
Net PUD
325
Net Probable
476
Net Possible
50

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2008 Proposed Development – Wattenberg Field Area
 
 
2007
2008
% Change
Total Net Production (BCFE)
11.1
13.2
19%
Net Exit Rate (MMCFE/D)
36.6
40.4
10%
Total Net Capital (MM$)
$90.9
$61.6
-32%
Drilling Projects, Gross (Net)
153 (110)
115 (92)
-25%
Other Projects, Gross (Net)
135 (130)
100 (91)
-26%

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2008 NECO Area {Graphic}

NECO Area

Operated wells year end
457
Undeveloped acreage
34,200
Number of  remaining net locations
481
PUD
90
Probable
173
Possible
160

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2008 Proposed Development – NECO Area

 
2007
2008
% Change
Total Net Production (BCFE)
3.6
5.8
61%
Net Exit Rate (MMCFE/D)
12.7
19.6
54%
Total Net Capital (MM$)
$26.8
$31.3
17%
Drilling Projects, Gross (Net)
122 (111)
125 (125)
2%

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Appalachian Basin Operating Area {Graphic}

 
 

 

Appalachian Basin

·  
Operated wells year end   1361
·  
Evaluating Undeveloped Acreage Position
·  
Number of  remaining locations
o  
PUD                         25
o  
Other opportunities not fully evaluated.

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2008 Proposed Development – Appalachian Basin

 
2007
2008
% Change
Total Net Production (BCFE)
2.5
3.1
24%
Net Exit Rate (MMCFE/D)
7.0
9.1
30%
Total Net Capital (MM$)
$5.0
$8.9
78%
Drilling Projects, Gross (Net)
8 (8)
23 (23)
130%
Other Projects, Gross (Net)
30 (30)
30 (25)
0%

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2008 Appalachian – Castle Operating Area {Graphic}

Appalachian Basin – Castle Area

·  
Appalachian Basin - Castle:
·  
Operated wells year end                                                      741
·  
Undeveloped acreage                                                          10,000
·  
Number of  remaining locations
o  
PUD      188
o  
Other opportunities not fully evaluated

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2008 Proposed Development – Castle Area

 
2008
Total Net Production (BCFE)
1.3
Net Exit Rate (MMCFE/D)
4.4
Total Net Capital (MM$)
$12.7
Drilling Projects, Gross (Net)
50 (50)

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2008 North Dakota {Graphic}


 
 

 

North Dakota

 
2007
2008
% Change
Total Net Production
0.6
0.3
-50%
Net Exit Rate (MMCFE/D)
1.2
1.3
-8%
Total Net Capital (MM$)
2.0
4.2
110%
Drilling Projects, Gross (Net)
3 (2)
3 (2)
0%

Operated Wells year end
7
Undeveloped Acreage
59,972
Number of remaining locations
 
     PUD
0

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Michigan

·  
Operated wells year end                             209
·  
Undeveloped acreage                                 440
·  
Number of  remaining locations                    3
o  
PUD                                                   2
o  
Probable                                           1

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2008 Proposed Development – Michigan Basin

 
2007
2008
% Change
Total Net Production (BCFE)
1.7
1.5
-12%
Net Exit Rate (MMCFE/D)
4.6
4.2
-9%
Total Net Capital (MM$)
$1.2
$0.8
-33%
Drilling Projects, Gross (Net)
3 (3)
2 (2)
-33%

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2008 Proposed Exploration / Exploitation Activity

2008 Proposed Exploration / Exploitation Budget
 
MM$
Exploration
11.4
Exploitation
13.7
G & G
6.1
Land
19.2
Total
$50.4
·  
Budget 2X 2007 Level
·  
Addition of geological and geophysical professionals
·  
No Reserve adds modeled

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements
2008 Proposed Exploration Budget

Exploration:
           MM$
·  
North Dakota (Midale)                2.6
·  
New York (Trenton BR)              1.5
·  
Unnamed Opportunities             7.3

Total Exploration Capital         $11.4

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2008 Proposed Exploitation Budget

Exploitation:
MM$
·  
Barnett Shale (4 wells)                  8.6
·  
Marcellus Shale (1 well)               1.5
·  
Unnamed Opportunities              3.6

Total Exploitation Capital         $13.7

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Barnett Shale Project {Graphic}

·  
8,868 Acres under Lease
·  
1,500 Acres seismic option
·  
3D Seismic acquired under both lease blocks
·  
2 drilled horizontal wells
·  
Completion operations expected to commence late 1Q or early 2Q as 3rd party pipeline construction complete
·  
No reserve value in current 3P

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Marcellus Shale “Fairway” - PDC Areas of Operation {Graphic}

·  
PDC operates over 2100 wells within the Marcellus “Fairway” area
·  
Leasehold combination of lease, farmout and wellbore ownership
·  
Potential of 10-40,000 acres within “Fairway”, pending full determination of leasehold rights
·  
No reserve value in current 3P

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2008 – 2010 Operating Estimate

 
 

 

2008 – 2010 Operating Estimate
 
2008
2009
2010
Total Net Capital (MM$)
254
315
315
Net Production (BCFE)
38
48
56
% Production Growth
36%
26%
17%
Gross Drilling Projects
360
360
360
Net Drilling Projects
330
358
358

·  
Considered baseline outcome with no additions from Barnett, Marcellus or other exploration, exploitation activity or acquisitions
·  
Assumes constant drilling level & cost in 2009 & 2010 equal to 2008 level including Partnership carry-over activity
·  
Assumes development of identified proved and probable reserves in current areas of operations

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Estimated 2008-2010 Production {Graphic}

2008 Analyst Day
Rick McCullough, Vice Chairman and CFO

Analysis of 2007 Forecast
 
2007 Guidance ($MM)
2007 Actual ($MM)
Revenues
$167 – 197
$170 - 200
Expenses
   
     DD&A
58 – 65
70 – 75
     G&A
14 – 16
28 – 30
Operating Income
82 – 95
63 – 75
Net Income
47 – 54
36 – 42

·  
Actual DD&A higher than Guidance due to acquisitions and greater development drilling
·  
Actual G&A higher than Guidance due to estimate not reflecting increase cost of financial statements audits, increased legal expenses and staffing up of accounting and financial infrastructure
·  
Non operating gain on sale of leasehold added approximately $15 Million to net income

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2008 Budget Assumptions(1)

·  
Reserves, production and capital expenditures per the internal operational plan
·  
Production taxes and direct operating costs on a field-by-field basis
·  
SG&A of $30.0M up from $28M in 2007
·  
DD&A based on field-by-field depreciation analysis

1)  The Company has no intent to update or correct these estimates during the year

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

 
 

 

2008 Budget Assumptions

·  
Revolver interest rate at pricing grid plus LIBOR spread
·  
$203.0MM Senior Notes issuance at 12.0%
·  
2008 commodity pricing based on NYMEX
 
strips as of 12/7/07
o  
NYMEX Gas/Oil - $7.60 / $87.85
o  
Differentials (NYMEX Gas/Oil) - 16% / 10%
·  
Assumed 50% of exploration expenditures expensed and no production or reserves

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2006-2008E Financial Metrics {Graphic}

2006-2008E Operating & Credit Metrics {Graphic}

Debt Maturity Schedule {Graphic}
·  
$234MM Revolver matures November 4, 2010
·  
Majority of $195MM net note proceeds will pay down $175MM drawn balance
·  
$203MM 12% Senior Notes mature February 2018
·  
Note proceeds provide:
o  
Mitigation of liquidity risk
o  
Diversification of funding sources
o  
Capital for aggressive organic development program
o  
Capacity/Flexibility to pursue opportunistic non-organic growth opportunities

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Hedging Program
·  
PDC’s currently implemented hedging schedule helps to ensure stable, predictable cash flows(1)

     
Floors
Ceilings
Swaps (Fixed Prices)
Hedging Schedule
(as of 2/4/08)
Begin
End
Monthly Qty MMBtu
Floor Price
Monthly Qty MMBtu
Ceiling Price
Monthly Qty MMBtu
Fixed
Price
Colorado Interstate Gas (CIG) Based Derivatives (Piceance Basin)
       
 
Nov-07
Nov-07
Apr-08
Apr-08
Nov-08
Apr-09
Mar-08
Mar-08
Oct-08
Oct-08
Mar-09
Oct-09
100,000
100,000
197,250
-
272,600
272,600
$5.25
$5.25
$5.50
-
$6.50
$5.75
-
100,000
197,250
-
272,600
272,600
-
$9.80
$10.35
-
$10.15
$8.75
-
-
-
294,000
-
-
-
-
-
$6.54
-
-
NYMEX Based Derivatives (Appalachian & Michigan Basins)
       
 
Nov-07
Nov-07
Apr-08
Apr-08
Nov-08
Apr-09
Mar-08
Mar-08
Oct-08
Oct-08
Mar-09
Oct-09
144,500
144,500
144,500
120,000
123,000
123,000
$7.00
$7.00
$6.50
$7.00
$7.50
$6.75
-
144,500
144,500
120,000
123,000
123,000
-
$13.70
$10.80
$13.00
$14.20
$12.45
-
-
Panhandle Based Derivatives (NECO)
       
 
Nov-07
Nov-07
Apr-08
Apr-08
Apr-08
Nov-08
Apr-09
Mar-08
Mar-08
Oct-08
Oct-08
Oct-08
Mar-09
Oct-09
70,000
90,000
90,000
90,000
-
110,000
100,000
$5.75
$6.00
$5.50
$6.00
-
$6.75
$6.00
-
90,000
90,000
90,000
-
110,000
110,000
-
$11.25
$9.85
$11.25
-
$10.05
$9.70
-
-
-
-
120,000
-
-
-
-
-
-
$6.80
-
-
Colorado Interstate Gas (CIG) Based Derivatives (Wattenberg Basin)
       
 
Nov-07
Apr-08
Apr-08
Nov-08
Apr-09
Mar-08
Oct-08
Oct-08
Mar-09
Oct-09
120,000
306,000
-
199,800
199,800
$5.25
$5.50
-
$6.50
$5.75
120,000
306,000
-
199,800
199,800
$9.80
$10.35
-
$10.15
$8.75
-
-
206,000
-
-
-
-
$6.54
Oil – NYMEX Based (Wattenberg Basin)
       
 
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-10
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-10
-
-
-
18,700
18,700
-
-
-
$70.00
$70.00
-
-
-
18,700
18,700
-
-
-
$102.25
$103.00
29,070
18,700
18,700
-
-
$84.20
$84.90
$85.40
-
-

Note:  Current hedges in place cover 29.2 Bcfe of total future production from January 1, 2008 forward.

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2009 – 2010 Assumptions

·  
Not Company Forecast; simply illustration of growth associated with replication of 2008 drilling program
·  
Operating and finance teams extended their 2008 projections through 2010 utilizing consistent methodologies
·  
2008-2010 commodity prices based on NYMEX strip prices as of 12/7/07 adjusted for historical differentials by area
·  
2009 and 2010 CAPEX and production increased to reflect impact of elimination of interests assigned to the drilling program partnership in 2008 drilling programs

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2007-2010 Financial Metrics {Graphic}

2007-2010 Operating & Credit Metrics {Graphic}

2008-2010 Forecast Qualitative Comments
·  
Strong financial position
o  
Healthy balance sheet
o  
Consistently low debt metrics support opportunistic growth strategy
·  
Reserve base provides significant growth potential
o  
Predictable low-risk production profile
·  
Realized prices will have greatest impact on execution results

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

 
 

 

PDC Investment Theme
·  
PDC has:
o  
Large inventory of low-risk, high quality development prospects in Colorado
o  
Staff and expertise to predictably execute the development plan
o  
Capital to fund development at aggressive 2007 levels through 2010
·  
The Company is positioned for significant value creation in 2008 and beyond without any additions to its prospect inventory
·  
Acquisitions, exploration or exploitation success in the Barnett or Marcellus shale or other new areas will add to anticipated future reserves and production levels

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Operations Appendix
Additional Prospect Area Information

Project Profile – Wattenberg Drilling

 
Codell / Niobrara
Codell
IP Rate
295 Mcfe/d
195 Mcfe/d
Production Profile
Hyperbolic
Hyperbolic
EUR
300 Mmcfe
200 Mmcfe
Life of Well
23.5 years
9.5 years
Severance Tax
2.05%
2.05%
Ad Valorem Tax
5.54%
5.54%
Production Expense
$612 / month
$612 / month
Gas Index
CIG
CIG
Gathering
$0.00
$0.00
BTU Factor
1.000
1.000
Fuel
0.0%
0.0%
Capital Cost of Well
$610k
$510k
Working Interest
100%
100%
NRI
80%
80%
Net F&D Cost
$2.54 / Mcfe
$3.19 / Mcfe

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Wattenberg Well Type Curve {Graphic}

Wattenberg Codell Well Type Curve {Graphic}


 
 

 

Project Profile  - Wattenberg Codell Re-Frac

IP Rate
109 Mcfe/d
Production Profile
Hyperbolic
EUR
185 Mmcfe
Life of Well
27 years
Severance Tax
2.05%
Ad Valorem Tax
5.54%
Production Expense
$612 / month
Gas Index
CIG
Gathering
$0.00
BTU Factor
1.000
Fuel
0.0%
Capital Cost of Well
$195k
Working Interest
100%
NRI
80%
Net F&D Cost
$1.32 / Mcfe

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Wattenberg Codell Re-Frac - Type Curve {Graphic}

2008 Proposed Development – Wattenberg Projects {Graphic}

Project Profile – NECO Area Drilling -

IP Rate
92 Mcf/d
Production Profile
Hyperbolic
EUR
192 MMcf
Life of Well
27.92 years
Severance Tax
2.05%
Ad Valorem Tax
5.91%
Production Expense
$685 / month
Gas Index
20% MidCon; 80% CIG
Gathering
($0.45)
BTU Factor
1.000
Fuel
4.8%
Capital Cost of Well
$250k
Working Interest
100%
NRI
80%
Net F&D Cost
$1.62 / Mcfe

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

NECO Type Well {Graphic}

2008 Proposed Development NECO Projects {Graphic}

 
 

 

Project Profile – Appalachian Basin Drilling

IP Rate
59 Mcf/d
Production Profile
Hyperbolic
EUR
177 MMcf
Life of Well
59.1 years
Severance Tax
5.0% and $0.047/mcf
Ad Valorem Tax
3.0%
Production Expense
$552 / month
Gas Index
DTI Appal. Index
Gathering
$0.00
BTU Factor
1.07
Fuel
12%
Capital Cost of Well
$330k
Working Interest
100%
NRI
87.50%
Net F&D Cost
$2.33 / Mcfe

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Appalachian Type Well {Graphic}

Project Profile – Appalachian Re-Completions

IP Rate
44 Mcf/d
Production Profile
Hyperbolic
EUR
75 MMcf
Life of Well
30.6 years
Severance Tax
5.0% and $0.047/mcf
Ad Valorem Tax
3.0%
Production Expense
$544 / month
Gas Index
DTI Appal. Index
Gathering
$0.00
BTU Factor
1.07
Fuel
12.0%
Capital Cost of Well
$75k
Working Interest
100%
NRI
87.50%
Net F&D Cost
$1.00 / Mcfe

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

2008 Proposed Development – Appalachian Projects {Graphic}


 
 

 

Project Profile – Castle Drilling

IP Rate
72 Mcf/d
Production Profile
Hyperbolic
EUR
189 MMcf
Life of Well
40.1 years
Severence Tax
0.0%
Ad Valorem Tax
0.0%
Production Expense
$250 / month
Gas Index
DTI Appal. Index
Gathering
$0.00
BTU Factor
1.07
Fuel
0.0%
Capital Cost of Well
$253k
Working Interest
100%
NRI
81.25%
Net F&D Cost
$1.67 / Mcfe

See Slide 2 regarding Forward Looking Statements

Castle Area Type Curve {Graphic}

2008 Proposed Development – Castle Projects {Graphic}

2008 Proposed Development – Michigan Projects {Graphic}