EX-99.1 2 dex991.htm SLIDE PRESENTATION FROM JP MORGAN AVIATION AND TRANSPORTATION CONFERENCE Slide Presentation from JP Morgan Aviation and Transportation Conference
March 10, 2009
JPMorgan Aviation & Transportation
Conference
This presentation
may
include
forward-looking
statements
regarding
the
performance
of
Alaska
Air
Group
or
its
subsidiaries.  Actual results may differ materially from these projections.  Please see our most recent Annual
Report on Form 10-K for additional information concerning factors that could cause
results to differ.
Exhibit 99.1


16.8 million passengers/yr.
9,600 employees
110 aircraft
60 cities served
430 daily departures
7.4 million passengers/yr.
3,700 employees
58 aircraft
47 cities served
390 daily departures


Employees
Excellent careers,
retirement
security
One of the best
places to work
Financial Health
8-10% annual growth
10% pretax profit margin
“Weatherproofed”
to economic
downturns
Investors
Return on investment
New capital for
growth
Customers
Airline with best value
Operational excellence
Among most-respected US brands
Our long-term strategy hasn’t changed


Focused on achieving adequate ROIC
Invested Capital
Alaska
$2.5B  (110 aircraft)
Horizon
$1.0B  (58 aircraft)
Air Group
$3.5B  (168 aircraft)


History of outperforming the industry
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Industry
Alaska Air Group
Industry includes: (2001-2006)  ALK, AWA, AMR, CAL, DAL, NWAC, LUV, UAL, LCC
(2007-2008) AMR, ALK, CAL, DAL, NWA, JBLU, AAI, LUV, UAUA, LCC (JPMorgan)


Our strategy for the current economy
1.
Preserve our strong balance sheet
3.  Cut capacity and redeploy aircraft 
Leverage existing strengths
5.  Reduce fuel consumption
4.  Control non-fuel costs
2.  Maximize unit revenues


Relatively low leverage
outside bankruptcy
48%
75%
81%
92%
95%
99%
106%
132%
133%
-10%
40%
90%
140%
Alaska
Air
Group
Adjusted
Debt-to-Capitalization
Q4
2008
Source:  Company 10-Ks for FY 2008
FPA-PS


9%
10%
13%
13%
15%
16%
17%
17%
29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
US Airways Group
United
Air Tran
AMR
Delta
Southwest
Jet Blue
Continental
Alaska Air Group
Strong cash position and
multiple sources of liquidity
Cash as a % of Revenues
as of December 31, 2008
Possible sources of
liquidity
$185 million available on
line of credit
Pre-delivery payment
facility 
Unencumbered aircraft,
spare parts and engines
Forward sale of miles
Note:
Unrestricted
cash
and
short-term
investments
as
of
12/31/2008
divided
by
revenues
for
the
12
months
ended
12/31/2008
as
reported
in
10-Ks
and
press
releases.
Source
for
Delta
statistic
is
JPMorgan
report
2/25/09.


Our conservatism extends to hedges
Alaska primarily uses “caps”
Source: Public Data, Bloomberg 3-3-09
1
Totals are annualized or estimated from Jet or heating oil positions
2
Values shown are crude oil equivalents
Collateral data as of 12/31/08
Collateral
Hedged
$/BBL
$0
$240 million
$117 million
$69 million
$575 million
$461 million
$171 million
$1.1 billion
$965 million
Alaska
Southwest
JetBlue
AirTran
American
US Airways
Continental
Delta
United 
2009
Hedged
$/BBL
50%   $76
10%   N/A
8%
$69
33%
$62
20%
$94
14%   $135
23%   $122
63%   $82
44%   $104
2010
Hedged
$/BBL
33%     $70
10%
N/A
-
-
5%
$67
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2011
2012
Hedged
$/BBL
11%      $80
10%
N/A
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Hedged
$/BBL
-
-
10%
N/A
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1


Maximizing revenues is our
2009 Key Initiative
Better yield management
Mileage Plan (FFP) changes
Advertising
Ancillary revenue opportunities consistent
with our brand


-20%
-15%
-10%
5%
0%
5%
10%
2008
Actual
-15%
-10%
-5%
O%
5%
10%
2008
Actual
Capacity reduced and redeployed
year-over-year %
available seat mile (ASM) growth
IR
-10%
-7%
Q109
2009
forecast
0%
Q109
2009
forecast
-15%
-9%
-9%
Q109
2009
forecast
-17%
-12%
Q109
2009
forecast
-21%
-11%
Departures
Capacity


Capacity down, but West Coast
remains competitive
Sources:
Industry
-
Latest
published
schedules
Updated
for
Q109
ASM Change Q1 2009 vs. Q1 2008
-11.0%
-4.0%
-8.0%
-14.0%
-16.0%
-2.0%
-11.0%
1.0%
-20%
-16%
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
Domestic U.S.
Mainline
West Coast
Mainline
SEA to
Bay Area
SEA to
LA Basin
Alaska
Industry


Redeployments improve our network


Capacity reductions put pressure
on non-fuel unit costs
Cost per available seat mile
excluding fuel
8.73¢
8.52¢
8.33¢
7.92¢
7.0¢
7.5¢
8.0¢
8.5¢
9.0¢
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
8.01¢
7.81¢
2007
7.50¢
2008
7.49¢
8.10¢
2009
guidance
2009 CASM ex fuel per guidance issued with Q4 2008 earnings release.


4
6
8
10
12
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
Stage Length (miles)
Alaska Mainline CASM ex Fuel by stage length trendline
Southwest
AirTran
Alaska
American
United
Continental
Jet Blue
US Airways
Delta
Non-fuel costs better than legacies’
but more work needed
Source: Q4 08 earnings releases
Major Airline CASM ex Fuel by Stage Length
Twelve months ending December 2008


Source: 10K reports, as of Dec. 31, 2008; Delta number from 4Q 08
earnings release; United number from 2007 10-K
Young, all-737 fleet simplifies
our operation, cuts costs
15
13
12.3
11.8
10.1
9.4
7.3
5.6
3.6
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
American
United
Delta
US Air
Southwest
Continental
Alaska
AirTran
JetBlue
Average fleet age (years)


$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
Decline in fuel prices will help
offset lower RASM
$1 per barrel =
$9 million pretax
$45 per barrel now
$100 per barrel avg
in 2008
$5 per barrel =
1.3% RASM


Alaska’s aircraft most
fuel-efficient in operation today
Alaska Domestic Mission Rules
Nominal fuel burn
Pax/Bag weight = 220 lb
100% load factor
Better
10.76
11.16
11.65
12.38
12.63
12.75
13.12
15.36
16.49
3
8
13
18
737-900
172 seats
737-800
157 seats
A320  
149 seats
757-200
182 seats
737-700
124 seats
737-400
144 seats
A319  
122 seats
MD-80
140 seats
DC-9 140
125 seats
Fuel gallons per passenger
Source: The Boeing Company


Horizon’s aircraft among
the most fuel-efficient
5.8
6.2
6.7
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.7
10.6
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
     Q400  
76 seats
CRJ900
88 seats
      E190  
99 seats
CRJ700
70 seats
    Q200   
37 seats
CRJ200
50 seats
     E170   
72 seats
    B1900  
19 seats
400 statute miles
100% load factor
Better
Fuel gallons per passenger
Source: Bombardier


Employees
Excellent careers,
retirement
security
One of the best
places to work
Financial Health
8-10% annual growth
10% pretax profit margin
“Weatherproofed”
to economic
downturns
Investors
Return on investment
New capital for
growth
Customers
Airline with best value
Operational excellence
Among most-respected US brands
This is a “people”
business


J.D. Power and Associates North America Airlines
Satisfaction Study –
June 16, 2008
More than 19,000 business and leisure travelers
surveyed
Alaska garnered high marks for:
Aircraft
Boarding/deplaning/baggage
Check-in
Flight crews
Reservations
Source: J.D. Power & Associates, June 2008
*In a tie among North American carriers
Highest in Customer Satisfaction*


2007
Program of the Year
Best Elite-Level
Program
Best Web Site
2006
Best Elite-Level
Program
Best Web Site
Best Member 
Communications
2005
Best Elite-Level
Program
Best Member
Communications
Award-Winning Mileage Plan
2004
Best Program
Best Web Site
Best Member
Communications
2003
Best Program
Best Member
Communications
2002
Best Program
Best Award
Best Website
2001
Best Award
Best Member
Communications


World class partners drive
additional revenue and increase
network utility


Alaska Air Group well positioned
to weather the current environment
Track record of good stewardship
Realistic about today
Optimistic about tomorrow
Strong balance sheet
Young, fuel-efficient, simple fleet
Positioned to benefit from growth                              
through network of code-share partners
Preferred product
Loyal customers and two great brands
Focused on shareholders