EX-99.1 2 ex99_1.htm EXHIBIT 99.1 ex99_1.htm
This presentation may include forward-looking statements regarding the performance of Alaska Air Group or its
subsidiaries. Actual results may differ materially from these projections. Please see our most recent Annual
Report on Form 10-K for additional information concerning factors that could cause results to differ.
June 18,2008
Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference
 
 

 
Alaska Air Group Update
 How is Alaska Air Group doing in the current
 industry crisis?
 Why is Alaska better positioned to weather the
 current storm?
 What are we doing to position ourselves for the
 long term?
 
 

 
(in millions)
Industry
(in billions)
Estimated industry losses will rival or exceed 9/11
*First Call mean estimate as of 6/11/08. Does not necessarily reflect the company’s internal forecast.
Merrill Lynch estimate 6/10/08
 
 

 
Q1 adjusted net result
(in millions)
Q1 fuel cost*
(in millions)
* Net of hedging
Rapidly rising fuel is the cause
 
 

 
Source: Bloomberg
Oil as we knew it
 
 

 
Source: Bloomberg
Our world has changed
$100/barrel
increase
or
$1 billion
annual
raw fuel cost
(crude portion)
$1 per barrel
= $10 million of
pretax income
 
 

 
Source: Bloomberg, as of 6/12/08
West Coast refinery margin also increased
75¢/gallon
increase
or
$300 million
annual cost
(unhedged)
1¢/gallon
= $4 million to pretax
net income
 
 

 
Fuel % of revenue
Assumes $135/bbl thru 12/08 with 81¢/gal crack (avg $123.05/bbl unhedged for FY 2008)
Also assumes 2008 revenues same as 2007 for comparison purposes only. Not to be taken
as guidance.
Cberry 6-16-08
Fuel is taking a bigger bite out of
revenue than ever before
 
 

 
  Then Now
  (2003) (2008)
*Applies MD-80 fuel burn for MD-80 at maximum stage length to
 Seattle-Newark trip
Assumes 80% load factors and no fuel hedge benefit STackett 6-16-08
 MD-80* 42 196
 MD-80 19 88
Fuel cost per passenger is about
4.5 times the cost in 2003
 
 

 
MimiHoover AHarrison 6-16-08
Actively managing capacity
 Reduced capacity 4.8% for Alaska mainline, 10.6% for
 purchased capacity flying, and 12.5% for Horizon
 Redeployed 5% of Alaska’s and 6% of Horizon’s
 capacity
 Accelerated MD-80 retirement to August 25
 Flying slower -- adding just 2 minutes to Alaska’s
 flights could save almost $6 million annually in fuel
 
 

 
Reduce growth
and redeploy capacity
forecast
forecast
(year-over-year % available seat mile (ASM) growth)
was -4.0%
is now -8.9%
was 3.0%
is now 1.2%
 
 

 
Cost per available seat
mile
excluding fuel
8.73¢
8.52¢
8.33¢
7.92¢
7.0¢
7.5¢
8.0¢
8.5¢
9.0¢
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
7.81¢
2007
Continuous
improvement
2008
target
7.50¢
Continued control of non-fuel unit costs
 
 

 
Cash as a % of Revenues
Q1 ‘08
Note: Calculated using unrestricted cash and short-term investments at March 30, 2008 divided by revenue for the 12 months ended March 30, 2008.
Alaska Air Group had $990 million in cash as of the date of this filing.
Sources of additional
 liquidity
 $185 million line of credit
 $172 million maximum pre-
 delivery payment facility
 10 unencumbered aircraft,
 including B737-800s and Q400s
 Unencumbered real estate
 Spare parts
 Forward sale of miles
Source: Company earnings releases and 10Qs as of Q1 2008 Psundaresan/JSchaefer
Strong cash position and
multiple sources of liquidity
 
 

 
Alaska Air Group Adjusted Debt-to-Capitalization - Q1 2008
Source: Company Earnings Releases; AAG Board Deck PSundaresan
Relatively low leverage
 
 

 
1 Totals are annualized or estimated from Jet or heating oil positions. Assumes a heating oil crack spread of
 41¢/gal and a jet fuel crack spread of 60¢/gal.
2 Values shown are crude oil equivalents.
3 2008 column reflects fuel hedge data for Q2-Q4 2008.
2008
2009
Hedged $/BBL2
 70% $51
 50% $76
 34% $90
 50% $99
 30% $75
 31% $84
  9% $92
 40% $102
 30%  $104
 25% $90
Hedged $/BBL2
 55%  $51
 28% $104
 - -
 20% $97
 - -
 2% $95
 - -
 10%  $86
 - -
 - -
Southwest
Alaska
jetBlue1
AirTran1
American
US Airways1
Continental1
Delta1
Northwest
United1
 
Source: Public Data, Bloomberg
Air Group has the second best hedge
position in the industry
3
 
 

 
Source: 10K reports as of Dec. 31, 2007
December 2008
737-800
46
737-700
20
737-900
12
737-400
38
All-737 Fleet
116 aircraft
Average fleet age (years)
An all-737 fleet by September
 
 

 
 Alaska Domestic Mission Rules
 1,000 statute miles
 Nominal fuel burn
 Pax/Bag weight = 220 lb
 100% load factor
Better
Fuel gallons per passenger
Source: The Boeing Company
Alaska’s aircraft most
fuel-efficient in operation today
 
 

 
~50 aircraft
December 2009
Q400
~50
Q200
Q200
16
16
70 aircraft
CRJ 700
21
Q400
33
December 2007
Moving to Q400 single type fleet by 2010
 
 

 
For our customers:
  Fast
  415 mph cruise speed
  Pure jet block times @ 500 miles
  Quiet and comfortable
  Prop and ANVS technology
For our business plan:
  Cost-efficient
  Best economics of any regional
 aircraft
  Flexible/High Performance
  Airfield access
  Low-visibility technology
For the environment:
  Fuel-efficient, quieter, greener
Source: Bombardier
The Q400:
The right aircraft at the right time
 
 

 
 400 statute miles
 100% load factor
Better
Fuel gallons per passenger
Source: Bombardier
Horizon’s aircraft are among the
most fuel-efficient
 
 

 
Guadalajara
Orlando
Loreto
Chicago
Palm Springs
San Diego
Las Vegas
Phoenix
Tucson
Cancun
Vancouver
Lihue
Lihue
Honolulu
Honolulu
Miami
Washington, D.C.
Boston
New York
(Newark)
Dallas/Ft Worth
Denver
Spokane
Reno
Sacramento
Boise
San Jose
Oakland
Nome
Barrow
Kotzebue
Bethel
Sitka
Fairbanks
Juneau
Petersburg
Wrangell
Yakutat
Glacier Bay/
Cordova
Gustavus
Ketchikan
Partners drive additional revenue
to AAG from international points;
big opportunity in Asia
Partners drive additional revenue
to AAG from international points;
big opportunity in Asia
Japan/Asia
Northwest
Cathay
Ontario
Burbank
Orange County
Long Beach
Los Angeles Int'l
Seattle
Portland
San Francisco Int'l
Caribbean/South America
American
Europe/Middle East/Africa
Northwest/KLM
Air France
British
South America
Lan
Australia/New Zealand
Qantas
 
 

 
2008
3rd
4th
10th
12th
17th
19th
5th
Greatly improved on-time performance
 
 

 
Alaska Air Group is well prepared
to weather the storm
 Conservative balance sheet with good liquidity
 Young, fuel-efficient, simple fleets
 Strong fuel hedge portfolio
 Good progress with cost reduction
 Strong network of code-share partners,
 poised to benefit from Trans-Pac growth
 Management team committed to strong
 financial position and performance
 Reputation for outstanding customer service and
 industry-leading value