EX-1 3 g78608exv1.txt PRELIMINARY VALUATION ANALYSIS Exhibit 1 Valuation Oriole Homes Corporation Company Summary: GENERAL INFORMATION: Date: 26-Aug-02 Company: Oriole Homes Corporation Ticker: OHC COMMON STOCK CLASS A (OHCA) Most Recent Price $ 4.35 Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,863 COMMON STOCK CLASS B (OHCB) Most Recent Price $ 4.30 Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,772 ------- MARKET CAPITALIZATION $20,026 ------- 6/30/02 ------- Shareholders' Equity $33,162 Basic Shares Outstanding 4,636 Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 4,636 ------- BASIC BOOK VALUE PER SHARE $ 7.15 FULLY DILUTED BOOK VALUE PER SHARE 7.15 -------
vFINANCE INVESTMENTS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Valuation Oriole Homes Corporation Valuation Analysis: Summary (Amounts in thousands except per share data or where otherwise noted) SUMMARY OF DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW ANALYSIS: Low Median High -------------------------------------------------------------------- $ 12,588 $ 16,041 $ 20,249 SUMMARY OF COMPARABLE COMPANIES ANALYSIS: Low Median High --------------------------------------------------------------------- $ 27,908 $ 31,397 $ 34,885 SUMMARY OF COMPARABLE TRANSACTIONS ANALYSIS: Low Median High ---------------------------------------------------------------------- $ 7,361 $ 19,371 $ 34,571 SUMMARY OF LIQUIDATION ANALYSIS: Low Median High ----------------------------------------------------------------------- $ 7,778 $ 10,546 $ 13,946 vFINANCE INVESTMENTS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Valuation Oriole Homes Corporation Valuation Analysis: Summary (Amounts in thousands except per share data or where otherwise noted) 5 VALUATION METHODOLOGIES:
Low Median High --------------------------------------- 1. Summary DCF $12,588 $16,041 $20,249 2. Summary of Comparables Analysis 27,908 31,397 34,885 3. Summary of Comparable Transactions Analysis 7,361 19,371 34,571 4. Summary of Liquidation Analysis 7,778 10,546 13,946
SUMMARY;
LOW MEDIAN HIGH -------------------------------------------- VALUE BASED ON 4,635,524 SHARES OUTSTANDING $ 13,909 $ 19,339 $ 25,913 PRICE PER SHARE $ 3.00 $ 4.17 $ 5.59 -------- -------- --------
vFINANCE INVESTMENTS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Valuation Oriole Homes Corporation Discounted Cash Flow Analysis: (Amounts in thousands except per share data or where otherwise noted)
PROJECTED INCOME STATEMENTS: Fiscal Year Ending, December 31 ------------------------------------------------------------- 2002 2003 2004 2005 ------------------------------------------------------------- Revenues $ 105,270 $ 48,024 $ 14,443 $ 11,617 Growth rate n.a. -54.4% -69.9% -19.6% Cost of revenues $ 93,050 $ 36,264 $ 10,577 $ 8,739 --------- --------- --------- --------- Gross profit 12,220 11,760 3,866 2,878 Gross margin 11.6% 24.5% 26.8% 24.8% Operating expenses $ 13,589 $ 7,105 $ 2,908 $ 2,659 --------- --------- --------- --------- Operating income (1,369) 4,656 958 219 % of revenue -1.3% 9.7% 6.6% 1.9% Other (Income) expense Interest (income) $ -- $ -- $ -- $ -- Interest expense 2,435 566 259 213 Other (income) expense 1,217 200 -- -- --------- --------- --------- --------- Total (income) expense 3,652 766 259 213 Taxes -- -- -- -- --------- --------- --------- --------- Net income $ (5,021) $ 3,890 $ 699 $ 7 ========= ========= ========= ========= % of revenue -4.8% 8.1% 4.8% 0.1%
vFINANCE INVESTMENTS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Valuation Oriole Homes Corporation Discounted Cash Flow Analysis: (Amounts in thousands except per share data or where otherwise noted) UNLEVERED FREE CASH FLOW ANALYSIS:
Fiscal Year Ending, December 31 --------------------------------------------------------- 2002 2003 2004 2005 --------------------------------------------------------- Net Income $ (5,021) $ 3,890 $ 699 $ 7 Plus Depreciation 1,778 503 277 299 Plus Income Taxes -- -- -- -- Less CAPEX -- (600) -- -- Other income 1,952 4,048 -- -- Changes in Working Capital (21,931) 12,965 2,630 2,797 -------- -------- -------- -------- UNLEVERED FREE CASH FLOW (23,222) 20,807 3,605 3,103
vFINANCE INVESTMENTS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Valuation Oriole Homes Corporation Discounted Cash Flow Analysis: (Amounts in thousands except per share data or where otherwise noted)
DISCOUNT RATE Present value of unlevered free cash flow (1) $ (315) 15.0% Present value of terminal value (2) 20,564 ------------ Present value of enterprise $ 20,249 Present value of unlevered free cash flow (1) $ (741) 17.0% Present value of terminal value (2) 19,194 ------------ Present value of enterprise $ 18,453 Present value of unlevered free cash flow (1) $ (1,134) 19.0% Present value of terminal value (2) 17,936 ------------ Present value of enterprise $ 16,801 Present value of unlevered free cash flow (1) $ (1,498) 21.0% Present value of terminal value (2) 16,779 ------------ Present value of enterprise $ 15,281 Present value of unlevered free cash flow (1) $ (1,834) 23.0% Present value of terminal value (2) 15,714 ------------ Present value of enterprise $ 13,880 Present value of unlevered free cash flow (1) $ (2,144) 25.0% Present value of terminal value (2) 14,732 ------------ Present value of enterprise $ 12,588 (1) Free Cash Flow Forecast Period is CY 2001 - CY 2005 (2) Terminal Value is based on cash at the end of 2005 $ 35,967 and cable and recreational leases. ------------
vFINANCE INVESTMENTS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Valuation Oriole Homes Corporation -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SUMMARY DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW ANALYSIS: (Amounts in thousands except per share data or where otherwise noted)
LOW MEDIAN HIGH --- ------ ---- Equity Value $ 12,588 $ 16,041 $ 20,249 Price per Share $ 2.72 $ 3.46 $ 4.37
vFinance Investments STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Valuation Oriole Homes Corporation -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- vFinance Investments STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET 3/31/2002 12/31/2002 12/31/2003 12/31/2004 12/31/2005 ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- Cash and cash equivalents 6,386,091 8,668,381 29,722,285 33,147,775 35,967,007 ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- Receivables 0 0 0 0 0 Land 21,648,329 7,316,836 2,066,020 942,828 20,207 Land Development 7,596,345 3,365,536 1,459,760 503,811 1,435 Less ECTC (3,486,022) (986,769) (986,769) (986,769) (986,769) Subtotal Land Development 4,110,323 2,378,767 472,991 (482,958) (985,334) Construction 25,957,840 19,583,941 2,102,162 1,397,576 111,414 Less ECTC (2,122,660) (1,910,397) 0 0 0 ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- Subtotal Construction 23,835,180 17,673,544 2,102,162 1,397,576 111,414 Models 1,042,836 1,143,861 1,143,861 1,143,861 0 ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- Net Inventories 50,636,667 28,513,008 5,785,034 3,001,307 (853,713) ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- Property and equipment, at cost 2,581,931 2,498,203 2,498,203 2,498,203 1,559,322 Less accumulated depreciation 1,902,273 2,151,928 2,303,396 2,400,359 1,477,485 ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- 679,658 346,275 194,807 97,844 81,837 ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- Land held for investment, at cost 0 0 0 0 0 Investment in unconsolidated joint venture 6,000,000 4,047,998 0 0 0 Other Prepaid expenses 1,349,241 1,418,870 270,000 270,000 100,000 Unamortized financing costs 499,672 52,236 0 0 0 Other assets 1,689,356 1,589,004 1,664,613 1,727,945 1,846,945 ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- 3,538,269 3,060,110 1,934,613 1,997,945 1,946,945 ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- Total assets 67,240,685 44,635,772 37,636,739 38,244,871 37,142,076 =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== Liabilities Mortgage notes payable 14,818,159 5,581,270 0 0 0 Accounts payable 5,561,504 4,138,021 1,288,850 1,325,509 727,430 Accrued expense 2,882,552 819,896 975,496 1,009,096 1,036,696 Customer deposits 8,683,357 3,313,287 700,000 538,855 0 ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- Total liabilities 31,945,572 13,852,474 2,964,346 2,873,460 1,764,126 ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- Shareholders' equity Class A common stock, par value $.10 a share Authorized: 10,000,000 shares Issued and
outstanding 1,863,149 186,315 186,315 186,315 186,315 186,315 Class B common stock, par value $.10 Authorized: 10,000,000 shares Issued and outstanding 2,762,375 at 3/31/02; 2,772,375 at 12/31/02 276,238 277,238 277,238 277,238 277,238 Additional paid-in capital 19,267,327 19,281,327 19,281,327 19,281,327 19,281,327 Retained earnings 15,565,233 11,038,418 14,927,513 15,626,531 15,633,070 ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- Total shareholders' equity 35,295,113 30,783,298 34,672,393 35,371,411 35,377,950 ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- Total liabilities and shareholders' equity 67,240,685 44,635,772 37,636,739 38,244,871 37,142,076 =========== =========== =========== =========== ===========
WORKING CAPITAL 12/31/2001 12/31/2002 12/31/2003 12/31/2004 12/31/2005 ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- CURRENT ASSETS: Inventories 59,113,990 28,513,008 5,785,034 3,001,307 (853,713) Receivables 0 0 0 0 0 Prepaid expenses 1,732,764 1,418,870 270,000 270,000 100,000 Unamortized financing costs 752,970 52,236 0 0 0 Other assets 2,522,057 1,589,004 1,664,613 1,727,945 1,846,945 ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- 64,121,781 31,573,118 7,719,647 4,999,252 1,093,232 CURRENT LIABILITIES: Accounts payable 10,054,699 4,138,021 1,288,850 1,325,509 727,430 Accrued expense 9,763,166 819,896 975,496 1,009,096 1,036,696 Mortgage notes payable 24,257,026 5,581,270 0 0 0 Customer deposits 0 3,313,287 700,000 538,855 0 ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- 44,074,891 13,852,474 2,964,346 2,873,460 1,764,126 Current Assets 64,121,781 31,573,118 7,719,647 4,999,252 1,093,232 Current Liabilities 68,331,917 13,852,474 2,964,346 2,873,460 1,764,126 ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- Net Working Capital (4,210,136) 17,720,644 4,755,301 2,125,792 (670,894) ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- Change in Net Working Capital 21,930,780 (12,965,343) (2,629,509) (2,796,686) =========== =========== =========== =========== ===========
Valuation Oriole Homes Corporation -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPARABLES COMPANIES ANALYSIS: (Amounts in thousands, except per share data and where otherwise noted)
Stock Market Company Value to ---------------- Ticker Price % of Market to Book P/E Ratio Company LTM LTM LTM Net --------- Company Symbol 8/26/2002 High Value Value 2002E 2003E Value Revenue EBITDA EBIT Assets ------- ------ --------- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------- ------ ---- ------ Meritage Corporation MTH $ 38.00 81% $ 517,558 2.7x 7.6x 6.4x $ 727,484 0.91x 8.3x 8.9x 1.8x William Lyons Homes WLS 22.17 74% 227,398 1.5x n.a. n.a. 484,701 1.00x 19.3x 21.2x 1.2x Technical Olimpyc USA TOUS 16.23 88% 186,634 1.2x n.a. n.a. 269,881 0.44x 6.4x 7.1x 1.1x Domion Homes DHOM 20.68 79% 172,928 2.0x 7.5x 7.1x 311,091 0.73x 6.9x 7.3x 1.4x Orleans Homebuilders OHB 7.60 76% 95,021 1.7x n.a. n.a. 219,163 0.62x 8.1x 8.2x 1.2x Capital Pacific Holdings CPH 4.14 78% 62,375 0.6x n.a. n.a. 194,020 0.73x 5.4x 5.5x 0.8x Mean 79% 1.6x n.a. n.m. 0.74x 9.1x 9.7x 1.3x Median 79% 1.6x n.a. n.m. 0.73x 7.5x 7.8x 1.2x --- ---- ----- ---- ---- ---- MINIMUM 74% 0.6X 0.44X 5.4X 5.5X 0.8X Oriole Homes Corp. OHC $ 4.30 139% $ 20,079 0.6x n.a. n.a. $ 18,751 0.12x n.m. n.m. 0.6x DISCOUNT OF MINIMUMS VS MEAN -6% -61% -41% -40% -44% -33% Average Discount Min vs Mean -38%
This table shows the multiples for all the peer companies selected based on the different financial indicators. ---------- a Company value is calculated by adding debt and subtracting cash from the market value (market cap). VFINANCE INVESTMENTS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Valuation Oriole Homes Corporation -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPARABLES COMPANIES ANALYSIS: (Amounts in thousands except per share data or where otherwise noted)
FYE Six Months Ended, LTM --- ----------------- --- 12/31/2001 6/30/2002 6/30/2001 6/30/2002 ---------- --------- --------- --------- Revenue: Sales of homes $ 140,029 $ 66,352 $ 52,042 $ 154,340 Sales of land 15 11 -- 26 Other -- -- -- -- Gain on sales of PPE 105 4 96 14 Gain on sales of land -- -- -- -- Interest, rentals and other income 2,615 754 1,103 2,266 --------- -------- -------- --------- Total revenue 142,765 67,120 53,240 156,645 Costs and expenses: Cost of homes 128,461 61,276 47,470 142,267 Inventory valuation adjustments -- -- -- -- Cost of land sold 6 10 -- 17 Loss on joint ventures investments -- -- -- -- Costs relating to other operating income 10 -- 5 5 Selling, general and administrative expenses 17,281 8,215 8,041 17,455 --------- -------- -------- --------- Total expenses 145,758 69,502 55,515 159,745 --------- -------- -------- --------- EBIT (2,994) (2,381) (2,275) (3,100) ========= ======== ======== ========= Total Other (Income) Expenses -- -- -- -- --------- -------- -------- --------- EBT (2,994) (2,381) (2,275) (3,100) ========= ======== ======== ========= % of revenue -2.1% -3.5% -4.3% -2.0% Extraordinary loss (572) (261) -- (833) --------- -------- -------- --------- Net Income (3,566) (2,642) (2,275) (3,933) ========= ======== ======== ========= % of revenue -2.5% -3.9% -4.3% -2.5% EBIT (2,994) (2,381) (2,275) (3,100) Depreciation and amortization 1,805 1,454 366 2,892 --------- -------- -------- --------- EBITDA (1,189) (927) (1,909) (208) ========= ======== ======== ========= % of revenue -0.8% -1.4% -3.6% -0.1%
------------ a FYE stands for fiscal year ending. VFINANCE INVESTMENTS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Valuation Oriole Homes Corporation -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPARABLES COMPANIES ANALYSIS: (Amounts in thousands except per share data or where otherwise noted)
Actual ------ 06/30/2002 --------- ASSETS: Cash and cash equivalents: Unrestricted cash 9,551 Restricted cash 2,583 ------- 12,135 Inventories Land 17,267 Homes completed or under construction 14,987 Model homes 1,013 ------- 33,267 Property and equipment, at cost Land 82 Buildings 457 Furniture, fixtures and equipment 1,882 ------- 2,421 Less accumulated depreciation 1,817 ------- Net PPE 604 Land held for investment, at cost -- Investment in unconsolidated joint venture 5,739 Other Prepaid expenses 762 Unamortized financing costs 187 Other assets 1,736 ------- 2,685 ------- Total assets $54,430 ======= LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY: Liabilities: Line of credit -- Mortgage notes payable 8,224 Accounts payable and accrued liabilities 6,728 Customer deposit 6,316 Senior notes -- ------- Total liabilities 21,268 Total shareholders' equity 33,162 ------- Total liabilities and shareholders' equity $54,430 =======
vFinance Investments STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Valuation Oriole Homes Corporation -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPARABLES COMPANIES ANALYSIS: (Amounts in thousands except per share data and where otherwise noted)
LIQUIDITY: Last Twelve Months Trading Volume (shares) 818 Last Three Months Trading Volume (shares) 403 Oriole shares outstanding 4,636
Source: Yahoo Finance as of July 15, 2002
Valuation at Peers' Multiples ----------------------------- YTDb Company Equity Data Multiple Value Cash Debt Value ---- -------- ----- ---- ---- ----- Revenue $ 156,645 0.73x $114,216 $ 9,551 (8,224) $115,543 EBITDA (208) 7.5x n.m. 9,551 (8,224) n.m. EBIT (3,100) 7.8x n.m. 9,551 (8,224) n.m. Book value of net assets 31,835 1.2x 38,470 9,551 (8,224) 39,797 Book value of equity 33,162 1.6x 52,645 9,551 (8,224) 53,972 Mean $ 69,771 Discount Value Per share Low 50.0% $ 34,885 $ 7.47 Median 55.0% 31,397 $ 6.72 High 60.0% 27,908 $ 5.98
vFinance Investments STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL VALUATION ORIOLE HOMES CORPORATION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANALYSIS OF SELECTED TRANSACTIONS: (Amounts in thousands, except per share data and where otherwise noted)
Announcement Target Company Equity Date Status Company Description Value Value Revenue EBITDA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6/22/02 Completed Fortress Group Operative Builders $ 151,519 $ 50,700 $ 280,234 $ 19,741 4/17/02 Completed Crossman Communities Operative Builders 590,354 486,200 798,356 87,396 1/19/02 Completed Rottlund Co., Inc. Operative Builders 89,917 54,069 257,653 40,404 5/10/01 Completed Hancock Communities LLC Construction Services 69,700 67,800 183,651 n.a. 10/12/00 Completed Engle Homes, Inc. Operative Builders 412,600 215,000 977,794 103,856 9/12/00 Completed Western Pacific Housing Development Operative Builders 470,500 162,700 535,019 74,800 8/28/00 Completed Washington Homes Operative Builders 104,000 81,900 486,833 32,832 1/31/00 Completed Writer Corp. Operative Builders 49,800 27,900 87,455 6,604
Company Value Equity Value Announcement Target Book --------------------------------- Date Status Company Value Revenue EBITDA Book Value ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6/22/02 Completed Fortress Group $ 189,985 0.54x 7.7x 0.3x 4/17/02 Completed Crossman Communities 264,407 0.74x 6.8x 1.8x 1/19/02 Completed Rottlund Co., Inc. 52,145 0.35x 2.2x 1.0x 5/10/01 Completed Hancock Communities LLC 53,200 0.38x n.a. 1.3x 10/12/00 Completed Engle Homes, Inc. 207,531 0.42x 4.0x 1.0x 9/12/00 Completed Western Pacific Housing Development 118,900 0.88x 6.3x 1.4x 8/28/00 Completed Washington Homes 82,955 0.21x 3.2x 1.0x 1/31/00 Completed Writer Corp. 24,652 0.57x 7.5x 1.1x 0.51x 5.38x 1.12x -------------------------------------------- Minimum 0.21x 2.2x 0.3x Median 0.48x 6.29x 1.08x Maximum 0.88x 7.7x 1.8x -------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- Discount -56% -65% -75% ============================================ Minimum vs -65% Median
Transactions Equity Value -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TTM Sales TTM Sales -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- High 0.88x High $ 137,755 Median 0.48x Median 75,398 Low 0.21x Low 33,463
Transactions Equity Value -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TTM Book Value TTM Book Value -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- High 1.8x High $ 60,980 Median 1.1x Median 35,959 Low 0.3x Low 8,850
-------------------------------------- LOW MEDIAN HIGH -------------------------------------- Equity Value 21,157 55,678 99,367 Price per Share $ 4.56 $ 12.01 $ 21.44 -------------------------------------- Discount rate 65% $ 1.59 $ 4.18 $ 7.46 --------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- vFINANCE INVESTMENTS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
Company Div Code 6/30/02 Land Land Dev ECTC Net Land Dev 1 48 Country Glen 1,417,399 412,670 (713,197) (300,527) 1 65 Addison Green 219,438 10,728 34,281 45,010 1 79 Tuscany 0 59,322 59,322 1 95 Regal Shores - CL 7 560,444 119,618 21,844 141,462 1 98 Coral Cove 17,358 8,062 (140,714) (132,652) 1 101 Terraces at Celebration 127,222 52,764 (103,507) (50,743) 1 102 Spring Park at Celebration 2,425,701 841,803 (474,925) 366,878 1 69 Naples 1,894,381 121,456 (121,456) 0 2 Stonecrest 3,901,734 3,288,626 (1,502,112) 1,786,514 12 Vizcaya 3,897,640 1,027,330 (529,405) 497,925 Other 284,235 80,631 27,857 108,488 Total 14,745,553 5,963,688 (3,442,013) 2,521,675 vFinance 6/30 BS 14,745,573 5,963,688 (3,442,014) 2,521,674 Difference (20) (0) 1 1
Construction ECTC Net Construction Models Total 3,760,367 (200,407) 3,559,960 0 4,676,832 4,676,832 477,564 (9,041) 468,523 0 732,971 732,971 80,137 (80,137) 0 0 59,322 59,322 2,165,383 (222,757) 1,942,626 0 2,644,532 2,644,532 219,165 (129,192) 89,973 0 (25,321) (25,321) 594,715 3,475 598,190 0 674,669 674,669 598,074 0 598,074 0 3,390,653 3,390,653 243,166 0 243,166 0 2,137,547 2,137,547 4,599,057 (874,971) 3,724,086 0 9,412,334 9,412,334 3,916,524 (227,095) 3,689,429 1,012,889 9,097,883 9,097,883 130,159 (56,993) 73,166 0 465,888 465,888 16,784,313 (1,797,118) 14,987,194 1,012,889 33,267,311 33,267,311 16,784,313 (1,797,118) 14,987,195 1,012,889 33,267,331 33,267,331 (0) (0) (1) 0 (20) (20)
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis: Liquidation (Amounts in thousands except per share data or where otherwise noted)
PROJECTED INCOME STATEMENTS: Fiscal Year Ending, December 31 ------------------------------- 2002 2003 ------------------------------- Revenues $ 105,270 $ 29,419 Growth rate n.a. -72.1% Cost of revenues $ 93,050 $ 21,622 ------------------------------- Gross profit 12,220 7,796 Gross margin 11.6% 26.5% Operating expenses $ 13,589 $ 5,090 ------------------------------- Operating income (1,369) 2,706 % of revenue -1.3% 9.2% Other (Income) expense Interest (income) $ -- $ -- Interest expense 2,435 417 Other (income) expense 1,217 2,995 ------------------------------- Total (income) expense 3,652 3,413 Taxes -- -- ------------------------------- Net income $ (5,021) $ (706) =============================== % of revenue -4.8% -2.4%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- vFinance STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Discounted Cash Flow Analysis: Liquidation (Amounts in thousands except per share data or where otherwise noted) UNLEVERED FREE CASH FLOW ANALYSIS:
Fiscal Year Ending, December 31 ------------------------------- 2002 2003 ------------------------------- Net Income $ (5,021) $ (706) Plus Depreciation 1,778 603 Plus Income Taxes -- -- Other income 26 3,948 Changes in Working Capital (17,913) 11,702 ------------------------------- UNLEVERED FREE CASH FLOW (21,130) 15,546
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- vFinance STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Discounted Cash Flow Analysis: Liquidation (Amounts in thousands except per share data or where otherwise noted)
DISCOUNT RATE Present value of unlevered free cash flow (1) $ (6,618) 15.0% Present value of terminal value (2) 20,564 ---------- Present value of enterprise $ 13,946 Present value of unlevered free cash flow (1) $ (6,703) 17.0% Present value of terminal value (2) 19,194 ---------- Present value of enterprise $ 12,491 Present value of unlevered free cash flow (1) $ (6,778) 19.0% Present value of terminal value (2) 17,936 ---------- Present value of enterprise $ 11,158 Present value of unlevered free cash flow (1) $ (6,844) 21.0% Present value of terminal value (2) 16,779 ---------- Present value of enterprise $ 9,935 Present value of unlevered free cash flow (1) $ (6,903) 23.0% Present value of terminal value (2) 15,714 ---------- Present value of enterprise $ 8,811 Present value of unlevered free cash flow (1) $ (6,954) 25.0% Present value of terminal value (2) 14,732 ---------- Present value of enterprise $ 7,778 (1) Free Cash Flow Forecast Period is CY 2001 - CY 2003 ---------- (2) Terminal Value is based on cash at the end of 2003 $ 28,667 ----------
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- vFinance STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Summary Discounted Cash Flow Analysis: Liquidation (Amounts in thousands except per share data or where otherwise noted)
----------------------------------------------- LOW MEDIAN HIGH ----------------------------------------------- Equity Value $ 7,778 $ 10,546 $ 13,946 Price per Share $ 1.68 $ 2.28 $ 3.01 -----------------------------------------------
vFinance Investments STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Summary Discounted Cash Flow Analysis: (Amounts in thousands except per share data or where otherwise noted)
WORKING CAPITAL 12/31/01 12/31/02 12/31/03 -------- -------- -------- CURRENT ASSETS: Inventories 59,113,990 21,611,200 3,791,560 Receivables - - - Prepaid expenses 1,732,764 989,374 - Unamortized financing costs 752,970 52,236 - Other assets 2,522,057 1,589,004 716,472 ---------------------------------------- 64,121,781 24,241,814 4,508,032 CURRENT LIABILITIES: Accounts payable 10,054,699 4,138,021 922,478 Accrued expense 9,763,166 819,896 1,584,696 Mortgage notes payable 24,257,026 5,581,270 - Customer deposits - - - ---------------------------------------- 44,074,891 10,539,187 2,507,174 Current Assets 64,121,781 24,241,814 4,508,032 Current Liabilities 68,331,917 10,539,187 2,507,174 ---------------------------------------- Net Working Capital (4,210,136) 13,702,627 2,000,858 ---------------------------------------- Change in Net Working Capital 17,912,763 (11,701,769) ========================================
vFinance Investments STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Oriole Homes Corporation -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trading Information: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total Volume Last Twelve Months: 817,800 Average Monthly Volume: 68,150 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE VOLUME ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 12-Jul-02 3.64 3.85 3.64 3.85 10200 11-Jul-02 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 13500 10-Jul-02 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 14000 9-Jul-02 3.57 3.6 3.57 3.6 8000 8-Jul-02 3.57 3.57 3.57 3.57 5000 5-Jul-02 3.45 3.5 3.45 3.5 16400 3-Jul-02 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 2700 2-Jul-02 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 500 1-Jul-02 3.79 3.79 3.79 3.79 100 28-Jun-02 3.38 3.99 3.38 3.8 11100 27-Jun-02 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.2 2200 26-Jun-02 3.1 3.1 3 3 4200 25-Jun-02 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 500 24-Jun-02 3 3.15 3 3.15 10000 21-Jun-02 3.1 3.19 3.1 3.1 8000 20-Jun-02 2.9 2.99 2.9 2.99 2600 19-Jun-02 2.92 3 2.92 2.92 8200 18-Jun-02 3 3 3 3 5600 14-Jun-02 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.96 17700 13-Jun-02 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 22500 11-Jun-02 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 22000 10-Jun-02 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2000 6-Jun-02 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2500 30-May-02 2.82 2.82 2.82 2.82 400 29-May-02 2.82 2.82 2.82 2.82 1000 28-May-02 2.85 2.92 2.75 2.92 6000 24-May-02 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.95 200 23-May-02 3 3 3 3 400 22-May-02 3 3 3 3 3000 21-May-02 2.96 2.96 2.9 2.9 38600 20-May-02 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.96 10500 17-May-02 3.01 3.1 2.97 3.06 19200 16-May-02 2.9 3 2.82 3 24600 15-May-02 2.95 3.1 2.95 2.97 30000 14-May-02 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.95 1500 13-May-02 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 4000 9-May-02 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 100 6-May-02 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 3000 3-May-02 2.75 2.8 2.75 2.8 11500 2-May-02 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 5000 30-Apr-02 2.8 2.8 2.75 2.75 4000 29-Apr-02 2.75 2.87 2.7 2.8 16000 26-Apr-02 2.65 2.85 2.6 2.85 10500 25-Apr-02 2.7 2.7 2.65 2.7 5100 24-Apr-02 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 1000 23-Apr-02 2.5 2.65 2.5 2.65 4900 22-Apr-02 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 800 19-Apr-02 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 400 18-Apr-02 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 1000 17-Apr-02 2.6 2.6 2.55 2.6 1700 16-Apr-02 2.65 2.65 2.65 2.65 2700 15-Apr-02 2.65 2.7 2.6 2.7 4000 12-Apr-02 2.7 2.8 2.65 2.65 2000 11-Apr-02 2.65 2.65 2.6 2.6 1800 10-Apr-02 2.56 2.75 2.55 2.65 8500 9-Apr-02 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52 500 8-Apr-02 2.55 2.75 2.55 2.62 3200 5-Apr-02 2.4 2.5 2.35 2.5 4200
4-Apr-02 2.32 2.45 2.32 2.35 6200 3-Apr-02 2.25 2.4 2.25 2.31 8600 2-Apr-02 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.2 3800 1-Apr-02 1.95 2.2 1.95 2.2 8200 25-Mar-02 1.85 2 1.85 1.9 3000 12-Mar-02 1.85 1.85 1.75 1.75 3000 28-Feb-02 1.91 2 1.9 1.95 3900 26-Feb-02 2 2.09 2 2 3000 25-Feb-02 2.05 2.1 2.05 2.1 1500 22-Feb-02 1.9 2.09 1.9 2.05 3500 21-Feb-02 1.9 2 1.9 2 1100 20-Feb-02 2 2 1.9 2 3500 19-Feb-02 1.85 2.05 1.85 1.95 1800 13-Feb-02 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.75 3400 8-Feb-02 1.75 1.8 1.75 1.8 1000 5-Feb-02 1.6 1.75 1.55 1.65 6700 1-Feb-02 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 100 31-Jan-02 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 3000 15-Jan-02 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 700 14-Jan-02 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 200 11-Jan-02 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1000 7-Jan-02 2.05 2.05 2 2 700 3-Jan-02 2 2 2 2 1000 2-Jan-02 2 2.2 2 2.1 4000 31-Dec-01 1.75 1.87 1.75 1.85 6700 28-Dec-01 1.67 1.77 1.67 1.75 13500 26-Dec-01 1.6 1.6 1.12 1.57 5400 21-Dec-01 1.7 1.79 1.7 1.7 5200 20-Dec-01 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 300 19-Dec-01 1.7 1.75 1.7 1.75 7500 18-Dec-01 1.7 1.7 1.62 1.62 5500 14-Dec-01 1.55 1.75 1.45 1.75 12500 12-Dec-01 1.76 1.76 1.65 1.65 300 11-Dec-01 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 2000 6-Dec-01 1.74 1.74 1.74 1.74 1200 5-Dec-01 1.64 1.64 1.64 1.64 2000 4-Dec-01 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.55 11500 3-Dec-01 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.65 14900 30-Nov-01 1.95 1.95 1.9 1.9 4500 29-Nov-01 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 5100 28-Nov-01 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 2400 27-Nov-01 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 2700 26-Nov-01 1.8 1.95 1.8 1.95 1500 19-Nov-01 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1900 16-Nov-01 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2200 15-Nov-01 1.85 1.9 1.85 1.9 1500 14-Nov-01 1.95 1.95 1.75 1.75 8300 13-Nov-01 1.9 1.9 1.85 1.85 1900 12-Nov-01 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 2000 9-Nov-01 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.8 5000 8-Nov-01 1.8 1.8 1.45 1.45 16300 7-Nov-01 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 3000 6-Nov-01 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.7 3500 5-Nov-01 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 2000 2-Nov-01 1.55 1.6 1.5 1.5 6300 1-Nov-01 1.65 1.65 1.45 1.45 4000 31-Oct-01 1.88 1.88 1.5 1.55 15700 29-Oct-01 1.84 1.84 1.84 1.84 1500 26-Oct-01 1.9 1.9 1.75 1.75 4000 25-Oct-01 2 2 1.9 1.9 9600 24-Oct-01 1.95 2 1.95 2 2500 23-Oct-01 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1000 22-Oct-01 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 1000 19-Oct-01 1.85 1.85 1.75 1.75 6000
16-Oct-01 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1000 11-Oct-01 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 3000 5-Oct-01 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1200 4-Oct-01 1.35 1.44 1.25 1.44 4300 3-Oct-01 1.25 1.45 1.25 1.45 3300 28-Sep-01 1.2 1.25 1.2 1.25 3900 26-Sep-01 1.07 1.07 1.07 1.07 2500 25-Sep-01 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.17 7500 24-Sep-01 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 6000 21-Sep-01 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05 4000 20-Sep-01 1.1 1.12 1.1 1.12 4000 19-Sep-01 1.05 1.05 1 1 9000 18-Sep-01 1.5 1.5 1 1.15 14700 10-Sep-01 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 5000 6-Sep-01 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 2000 30-Aug-01 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1000 24-Aug-01 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 3000 23-Aug-01 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1500 22-Aug-01 1.65 1.7 1.65 1.65 4300 21-Aug-01 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1500 20-Aug-01 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1000 14-Aug-01 2.21 2.21 1.85 1.85 11300 10-Aug-01 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 1000 8-Aug-01 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 200 6-Aug-01 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.4 6500 1-Aug-01 2.74 2.74 2.72 2.73 1500 31-Jul-01 2.74 2.75 2.74 2.74 6100 30-Jul-01 2.65 2.75 2.65 2.75 4000 25-Jul-01 2.64 2.64 2.64 2.64 1100 19-Jul-01 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 1000 17-Jul-01 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 1200 16-Jul-01 2.54 2.54 2.5 2.5 1000 13-Jul-01 2.64 2.65 2.64 2.65 1600