EX-99.01 2 a05-16802_1ex99d01.htm EX-99.01

Exhibit 99.01

 

 

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[LOGO]

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

Merrill Lynch

 

 

 

 

Global Power & Gas Leaders Conference

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dick Kelly

 

 

 

 

President and CEO

 

 

 

 

September 28, 2005

 

 

 



Safe Harbor

 

This material includes forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions.  Such forward-looking statements include projected earnings, cash flows, capital expenditures and other statements and are identified in this document by the words “anticipate,” “estimate,” “expect,” “projected,” “objective,” “outlook,” “possible,” “potential” and similar expressions.  Actual results may vary materially.  Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include, but are not limited to: general economic conditions, including the availability of credit, actions of rating agencies and their impact on capital expenditures; business conditions in the energy industry; competitive factors; unusual weather; effects of geopolitical events, including war and acts of terrorism; changes in federal or state legislation; regulation; final approval and implementation of the pending settlement of the securities, ERISA and derivative litigation; costs and other effects of legal administrative proceedings, settlements, investigations and claims; actions of accounting regulatory bodies; risks associated with the California power market; the higher degree of risk associated with Xcel Energy’s nonregulated businesses compared with Xcel Energy’s regulated business; and other risk factors listed from time to time by Xcel Energy in reports filed with the SEC, including Exhibit 99.01 to Xcel Energy’s report on Form 10-K for year 2004.

 



Strategy — Building the Core

 

Invest in utility assets

AND

Earn our allowed return on equity

 

[GRAPHIC]

 



Investment Focus

 

      Customer service

 

      Supply

 

      Fuel mix

 

      Transmission

 

      Environment

 

[GRAPHIC]

 



Capital Expenditure Forecast

 

Dollars in millions

 

 

 

2005

 

2006

 

2007

 

2008

 

2009

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Base level capital expenditures

 

$

991

 

$

917

 

$

1,021

 

$

929

 

$

1,085

 

$

4,943

 

Minnesota MERP

 

191

 

404

 

197

 

125

 

56

 

973

 

Comanche 3

 

59

 

179

 

287

 

298

 

125

 

948

 

Total

 

$

1,241

 

$

1,500

 

$

1,505

 

$

1,352

 

$

1,266

 

$

6,864

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anticipated annual growth in average rate base

 

4

%

4

%

7

%

5

%

2

%

 

 

 



Drivers to Value Creation*

 

 

 

 

 

Potential

 

Growth

 

 

 

 

 

Result

 

Rate

 

 

 

2004

 

2009

 

2004-2009

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average rate base

 

$

10.5

B

$

13

B

4.4

%

 


*                 All figures except 2004 depreciation are on an estimated regulatory basis, which differs from GAAP reporting.  A reconciliation from GAAP reporting is shown in the appendix.

 



 

 

 

 

Potential

 

Growth

 

 

 

 

 

Result

 

Rate

 

 

 

2004

 

2009

 

2004-2009

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average rate base

 

$

10.5

B

$

13

B

4.4

%

Regulatory equity ratio

 

50.4

%

50 – 52

%

 

 

Equity rate base

 

$

5.3

B

$

6.5 – 6.76

B

 

 

 


*                 All figures except 2004 depreciation are on an estimated regulatory basis, which differs from GAAP reporting.  A reconciliation from GAAP reporting is shown in the appendix.

 



 

 

 

 

Potential

 

Growth

 

 

 

 

 

Result

 

Rate

 

 

 

2004

 

2009

 

2004-2009

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average rate base

 

$

10.5

B

$

13

B

4.4

%

Regulatory equity ratio

 

50.4

%

50 – 52

%

 

 

Equity rate base

 

$

5.3

B

$

6.5 – 6.76

B

 

 

Regulatory return on equity

 

9.6

%

10 – 11

%

 

 

 


*                 All figures except 2004 depreciation are on an estimated regulatory basis, which differs from GAAP reporting.  A reconciliation from GAAP reporting is shown in the appendix.

 



 

 

 

 

 

Potential

 

Growth

 

 

 

 

 

Result

 

Rate

 

 

 

2004

 

2009

 

2004-2009

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average rate base

 

$

10.5

B

$

13

B

4.4

%

Regulatory equity ratio

 

50.4

%

50 – 52

%

 

 

Equity rate base

 

$

5.3

B

$

6.5 –6.76

B

 

 

Regulatory return on equity

 

9.6

%

10 – 11

%

 

 

Regulatory net income

 

$

506

M

$

650 –$744

M

5 – 8

%

Depreciation – Cash flow

 

$

735

M

$

910

M**

 

 

Potential net income and depreciation from regulated operations

 

$

1,241

M

$

1,560 – $1,654

M

 

 

 


 *              All figures except 2004 depreciation are on an estimated regulatory basis, which differs from GAAP reporting.  A reconciliation from GAAP reporting is shown in the appendix.

**          Assumes depreciation grows at the same rate as rate base.

 



Regulatory, Legislative and Environmental Support for Capital Expenditures

 

      Minnesota MERP rider

 

      Comanche 3 decision — Forward CWIP and higher equity

 

      Minnesota and Texas transmission investment legislation

 



Environmental Initiatives

 

[CHART]

 



Renewable Energy Sources

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

Type

 

Capacity *

 

 

 

 

 

Hydro

 

1,885

 MW

Wind

 

953

 MW**

Biomass

 

95

 MW

Solar

 

40

 KW

Total

 

2,933

 MW

 


*                 Owned and purchased

**          Nameplate rating

 

> 12% of 2004 system capacity

 



Electric Fuel and Purchased Energy Cost Recovery Mechanisms

 

Minnesota:

 

Monthly recovery of prospective costs

 

 

 

Colorado:

 

Recovery of costs with sharing of deviations up to + $11.25 million from benchmark

 

 

 

Texas:

 

File for semi-annual adjustments – required if + 4% annually

 

 

 

Wisconsin:

 

Biennial rate case – file for interim adjustment if costs fall outside + 2% annually

 

 

 

New Mexico:

 

Recovery of costs with 2 month lag

 



Retail Electric Rate* Comparison

 

[CHART]

 



Rate Cases with Potential Revenue Increases Effective in 2006

 

      Colorado Gas – Requested $34 million

 

      Wisconsin Electric and Gas – Requested $48 million

 

      Minnesota Electric

 

      North Dakota Electric

 



Rate Cases with Potential Revenue Increases Effective in 2007

 

      Colorado Electric

 

      South Dakota Electric

 

      Texas Electric

 

      New Mexico Electric

 



Funding the Strategy

 

      Growing cash from operations

 

•      Tax loss carry-forward

 

•      Proceeds from asset sales

 

•      Financing:

     Dividend reinvestment program

     Modest debt issuance

     No equity issuance necessary through 2006

 

      Uncertain whether there is a need for public equity issuance in 2007 or 2008

 



2005 EPS Guidance Continuing Operations*

 

 

 

2005

 

 

 

Guidance

 

Regulated utility

 

$

1.27 – 1.37

 

Holding Company & other

 

(0.09

)

Total earnings from continuing operations

 

$

1.18 – 1.28

 

 


*                 2005 Guidance includes COLI tax benefits of 9 cents per share

 



Dividend

 

Annual dividend increased by 3 cents May 2005

 

Current annual dividend rate of 86 cents

 

Annual dividend increases consistent with long-term earnings growth of 2 – 4%

 

[GRAPHIC]

 



[LOGO]

 

      Investing to meet the growing energy needs of our region

 

      Regulatory, legislative and environmental support for investment strategy

 

      Deliver low-risk, competitive total return

 



[GRAPHIC]

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

[GRAPHIC]

 



 

Appendix

 



[LOGO]

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

4th largest US electric and gas utility

 

Customers:

 

3.3 Million Electric

1.8 Million Gas

 

Strong Regional Economy

 

Unemployment rate — June 2005

 

 

 

US

 

5.2

%

Xcel service area

 

4.2

%

 

 

 

 

Job growth — 2005 Forecast

 

 

 

Xcel service area

 

2.4

%

 

 

 

 

Xcel annual sales growth — 2005-2009

 

 

 

Electric

 

2.0

%

Gas

 

1.2

%

 



Organizational Structure 2004 Results

 

 

 

 

 

Xcel Energy Inc.
$527

 

Income from Continuing
Operations (Dollars in millions)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Holding
Company
$(43)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Northern
States
Power
Company -
Minnesota

 

Northern
States
Power
Company -
Wisconsin

 

Public
Service
Company of
Colorado

 

Southwestern
Public
Service
Company

 

Subsidiaries

      Eloigne

      Quixx

$230

 

$54

 

$218

 

$55

 

$13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regulated

 

Nonregulated

 



Rate Base and Returns

 

Dollars in millions

 

 

 

Rate Base

 

Earned

 

 

 

Equity

 

 

 

2004

 

ROE

 

Authorized

 

Ratio

 

 

 

Average

 

2004

 

ROE

 

2004

 

Minnesota - Electric retail

 

$

2,992

 

10.73

%(1)

11.47

%

50.3

%

Minnesota - Gas retail

 

402

 

8.50

 

10.40

(2)

50.3

 

North Dakota - Electric retail

 

166

 

10.80

 

12.00

 

50.3

 

North Dakota - Gas retail

 

39

 

8.18

 

11.50

 

47.6

 

Colorado - Electric retail

 

3,042

 

9.18

 

10.75

 

50.1

 

Colorado - Gas retail

 

996

 

8.76

 

11.00

 

50.1

 

Texas - Electric retail

 

889

 

9.39

 

11.50

 

48.7

 

NSP (W) - Retail electric

 

538

 

NR

 

11.90

 

55.8

 

NSP (W) - Retail gas

 

70

 

NR

 

11.90

 

55.8

 

Non-reported

 

1.4

B

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total including non-reported

 

10.5

B

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


NR: Non-reportable

 

(1)         Projected 2005 ROE of 8.96% based on normal conditions. 2004 result reflects strong trading margins and change in decommissioning accrual.

(2)         2005 decision

 



Reconciliation of Estimated Regulatory Reporting from GAAP

 

Dollars in millions

 

Common Equity

 

 

 

NSP (M)

 

NSP (W)

 

PSCo

 

SPS

 

Total

 

2004 GAAP common stockholder’s equity (1)

 

$

2,007

 

$

433

 

$

2,287

 

$

781

 

$

5,507

 

2003 GAAP common stockholder’s equity (1)

 

1,809

 

425

 

2,140

 

814

 

5,188

 

Average GAAP common stockholder’s equity

 

1,908

 

429

 

2,213

 

798

 

5,348

 

Adjustments

 

-5

 

-5

 

64

 

-11

 

43

 

Adjusted average equity for purposes of regulatory equity ratio

 

$

1,903

 

$

424

 

$

2,277

 

$

787

 

$

5,391

 

 

Debt

Source: 2004 Operating Company 10-K’s

 

 

 

NSP (M)

 

NSP (W)

 

PSCo

 

SPS

 

Total

 

2004 GAAP total debt (1) (2)

 

$

2,032

 

$

348

 

$

2,502

 

$

861

 

$

5,743

 

2003 GAAP total debt (1) (2)

 

2,003

 

337

 

1,845

 

825

 

5,010

 

Average GAAP total debt

 

2,018

 

342

 

2,173

 

843

 

5,376

 

Adjustments

 

-140

 

-6

 

94

 

-16

 

-68

 

Adjusted average debt for purposes of regulatory equity ratio

 

$

1,878

 

$

336

 

$

2,267

 

$

827

 

$

5,308

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regulatory equity ratio

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

50.4

%

 


(1)   Source: 2004 Operating Company 10-K’s

(2)   Consists of long-term debt, current portion of long-term debt and short-term debt

 

See note on the bottom of the following page for additional information

 



Dollars in millions

 

Net Income

 

 

 

NSP (M)

 

NSP (W)

 

PSCo

 

SPS

 

Total

 

2004 GAAP net income (1)

 

$

230

 

$

54

 

$

218

 

$

55

 

$

557

 

Adjustments

 

-25

 

 

 

-26

 

 

 

-51

 

Adjusted net income for purposes of regulatory net income

 

$

205

 

$

54

 

$

192

 

$

55

 

$

506

 

 

Calculation of Regulatory Net Income

 

Estimated regulatory rate base ($10.5 B) x Regulatory equity ratio (50.4%)
=
Estimated equity rate base ($5.3 B)

Regulatory net income ($506 M) ÷ Estimated equity rate base ($5.3 B) = Estimated regulatory
return on equity (9.6%)

 

Depreciation & Amortization – Cash Flows

 

 

 

NSP (M)

 

NSP (W)

 

PSCo

 

SPS

 

Total

 

2004 GAAP depreciation and amortization – cash flow (1)

 

$

352

 

$

48

 

$

234

 

$

100

 

$

735

 

 


(1) Source: 2004 Operating Company 10-K’s

 

Financial results for regulatory reporting frequently differ from GAAP.

Regulatory reporting includes the use of 12 and 13 month averages for capitalization, eliminates inter-company transactions, excludes non-regulated investments, includes or excludes revenues and or expenses associated with various recovery mechanisms and other factors, all of which may vary from one regulatory jurisdiction to another.

 



NSP — Minnesota Rate Cases

 

North Dakota Gas

 

Approved June

 

$0.7 million increase

 

 

 

 

 

Minnesota Gas

 

Approved July
10.4% ROE

 

$5.8 million increase

 

 

 

 

 

Minnesota Electric

 

To be filed Winter 2005 2006 test year

 

 

 

 

Interim rates early 2006

 

 

 

 

Decision Summer 2006

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North Dakota Electric

 

To be filed Winter 2005

 

 

 

 

Interim rates early 2006

 

 

 

 

Decision Summer 2006

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

South Dakota Electric

 

To be filed mid-2006

 

 

 

 

Decision 2007

 

 

 



PSCo Rate Cases

 

Colorado Gas

 

Filed May 27
Requested $34 million
11% ROE
55.49% common equity
Year-end rate base
Decision early 2006

 

 

 

Colorado Electric

 

To be filed Spring 2006

 

 

Decision early 2007

 



Wisconsin Electric and Gas Rate Case

 

Requested ROE  11.9%

 

Common equity ratio  56.32%

 

Electric requested:  Revenue increase of $40.8 million

 

Gas requested:  Revenue increase of $7.0 million

 

Rates expected to be in effect January 2006

 



SPS Rate Cases

 

Texas Electric

To be filed Summer 2006

 

Decision 2007

 

 

New Mexico Electric

To be filed 2006

 

Decision 2007

 



Capital Expenditures $6.9 Billion 2005 – 2009

 

[CHART]

 



Capital Expenditure Forecast by Operating Company

 

Dollars in millions

 

 

 

2005

 

2006

 

2007

 

2008

 

2009

 

NSP-Minnesota

 

$

645

 

$

832

 

$

713

 

$

571

 

$

605

 

NSP-Wisconsin

 

60

 

79

 

75

 

74

 

68

 

PSCo

 

425

 

499

 

593

 

591

 

488

 

SPS

 

111

 

90

 

124

 

116

 

105

 

Total

 

$

1,241

 

$

1,500

 

$

1,505

 

$

1,352

 

$

1,266

 

 



NSP — Minnesota Operating Company Capital Expenditure Forecast

 

Dollars in millions

 

 

 

2005

 

2006

 

2007

 

2008

 

2009

 

Total

 

MERP

 

$

191

 

$

404

 

$

197

 

$

125

 

$

56

 

$

973

 

Excluding MERP

 

454

 

428

 

516

 

446

 

549

 

2,393

 

Total

 

$

645

 

$

832

 

$

713

 

$

571

 

$

605

 

$

3,366

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MERP

 

 

 

$

973

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Transmission

 

 

 

459

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nuclear fuel

 

 

 

336

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Balance of electric

 

 

 

1,250

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas

 

 

 

188

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Common

 

 

 

160

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

$

3,366

 

 



PSCo Operating Company Capital Expenditure Forecast

 

Dollars in millions

 

 

 

2005

 

2006

 

2007

 

2008

 

2009

 

Total

 

Comanche 3

 

$

59

 

$

179

 

$

287

 

$

298

 

$

125

 

$

948

 

Excl. Comanche 3

 

366

 

320

 

306

 

293

 

363

 

1,648

 

Total

 

$

425

 

$

499

 

$

593

 

$

591

 

$

488

 

$

2,596

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Comanche 3

 

 

 

$

948

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Transmission

 

 

 

280

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Balance of electric

 

 

 

809

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas

 

 

 

438

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Common

 

 

 

98

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thermal

 

 

 

16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Non-utility

 

 

 

7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

$

2,596

 

 



SPS Operating Company Capital Expenditure Forecast

 

Dollars in millions

 

 

 

2005

 

2006

 

2007

 

2008

 

2009

 

Total

 

Total

 

$

111

 

$

90

 

$

124

 

$

116

 

$

105

 

$

546

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Transmission

 

 

 

 

 

$

140

 

 

 

 

 

Balance of electric

 

 

 

 

 

406

 

 

 

 

 

Total electric

 

 

 

 

 

$

546

 

 



NSP — Wisconsin Operating Company Capital Expenditure Forecast

 

Dollars in millions

 

 

 

2005

 

2006

 

2007

 

2008

 

2009

 

Total

 

Total

 

$

60

 

$

79

 

$

75

 

$

74

 

$

68

 

$

356

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Transmission

 

 

 

 

 

$

73

 

 

 

 

 

Balance of electric

 

 

 

 

 

200

 

 

 

 

 

Gas

 

 

 

 

 

45

 

 

 

 

 

Common

 

 

 

 

 

38

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

$

356

 

 



Minnesota MERP — Potential Earnings

 

Dollars in millions

 

 

 

2005

 

2006

 

2007

 

2008

 

2009

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Capital expenditures

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current year

 

$

191

 

$

404

 

$

197

 

$

125

 

$

56

 

Cumulative

 

$

238

 

$

642

 

$

839

 

$

964

 

$

1,020

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity ratioi

 

48.5

%

48.5

%

48.5

%

48.5

%

48.5

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Return on equity

 

10.86

%

10.86

%

10.86

%

10.86

%

10.86

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity return

 

$

8

 

$

24

 

$

40

 

$

48

 

$

53

 

 



Comanche 3 — Potential Earnings

 

Dollars in millions

 

 

 

2005

 

2006

 

2007

 

2008

 

2009

 

Capital expenditures

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current year

 

$

59

 

$

179

 

$

287

 

$

298

 

$

125

 

Cumulative

 

$

62

 

$

241

 

$

528

 

$

826

 

$

951

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity ratio

 

56

%

56

%

56

%

56

%

56

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Return on equity

 

10.75

%

10.75

%

10.75

%

10.75

%

10.75

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity return

 

$

2

 

$

9

 

$

23

 

$

41

 

$

54

 

 



Energy Supply Mix — 2004 Owned and Purchased

 

Fuel Mix

 

Purchased
Energy

 

 

 

[CHART]

 

[CHART]

 


*  Low-sulfur, low-mercury western coal

 



Coal Supply Contracted

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

 

 

 

 

Coal

 

 

 

Coal

 

Transportation

 

2005

 

99

%

100

%

2006

 

78

 

75

 

2007

 

65

 

45

 

2008

 

46

 

45

 

 

Annual consumption:  32 Million tons of low-sulfur, low-mercury western coal

 



Senior Debt Ratings

 

 

 

Moody’s

 

S&P

 

 

 

Secured

 

Unsecured

 

Secured

 

Unsecured

 

Holding Co.

 

 

Baa1

 

 

BBB-

 

NSPM

 

A2

 

A3

 

A-

 

BBB-

 

NSPW

 

A2

 

A3

 

A-

 

BBB

 

PSCo

 

A3

 

Baa1

 

A-

 

BBB-

 

SPS

 

 

Baa1

 

 

BBB

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Outlook

 

 

 

Stable

 

 

 

Stable

 

 



Company-Owned Life Insurance (COLI)

 

IRS dispute over tax deductibility of COLI

•     $350 million potential exposure for tax and interest

•     $65 million potential exposure for penalties

                  2005 guidance includes $40 million tax benefit or 9 cents per share for COLI

                  It will potentially take several years to resolve

 

Potential FASB financial reporting issue

                  Exposure draft issued on uncertain tax positions

                  Impacts financial reporting not cash flows