EX-99.01 2 a05-15381_2ex99d01.htm EX-99.01






































 

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[LOGO]

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

 

Lehman Brothers

 

 

CEO Energy/Power Conference

Xcel Energy Inc.

 

September 7, 2005

800 Nicollet Mall

 

 

Minneapolis, Minnesota 55402

 

 

www.xcelenergy.com

 



 

Safe Harbor

 

This material includes forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions.  Such forward-looking statements include projected earnings, cash flows, capital expenditures and other statements and are identified in this document by the words “anticipate,” “estimate,” “expect,” “projected,” “objective,” “outlook,” “possible,” “potential” and similar expressions.  Actual results may vary materially.  Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include, but are not limited to: general economic conditions, including the availability of credit, actions of rating agencies and their impact on capital expenditures; business conditions in the energy industry; competitive factors; unusual weather; effects of geopolitical events, including war and acts of terrorism; changes in federal or state legislation; regulation; final approval and implementation of the pending settlement of the securities, ERISA and derivative litigation; costs and other effects of legal administrative proceedings, settlements, investigations and claims; actions of accounting regulatory bodies; risks associated with the California power market; the higher degree of risk associated with Xcel Energy’s nonregulated businesses compared with Xcel Energy’s regulated business; and other risk factors listed from time to time by Xcel Energy in reports filed with the SEC, including Exhibit 99.01 to Xcel Energy’s report on Form 10-K for year 2004.

 



 

Strategy — Building the Core

 

Invest in utility assets
AND
Earn our allowed return on equity

 

[GRAPHIC]

 



 

Drivers to Value Creation

 

 

 

 

Earn Authorized

 

 

 

Return

 

 

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

 

Increase

 

 

 

Equity

 

 

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

 

Increase

 

 

 

Investment

 

 

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

 

Service

 

 

 

Territory Growth

 

 

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

 

 

 



 

Capital Expenditure Plan

 

                  Prudent

 

                  Have regulatory, legislative and environmental support

 

                  Manageable

 

                  Add to earnings growth

 

                  Deliver stronger credit metrics

 



 

Regulatory, Legislative and Environmental Support

 

                  Minnesota MERP rider

 

                  Comanche 3 decision — Forward CWIP and higher equity

 

                  Minnesota and Texas transmission investment legislation

 



 

Capital Expenditure Forecast

 

Dollar in Millions

 

 

 

2005

 

2006

 

2007

 

2008

 

2009

 

Minnesota MERP

 

$

191

 

$

404

 

$

197

 

$

125

 

$

56

 

Comanche 3

 

59

 

179

 

287

 

298

 

125

 

Base level capital expenditures

 

991

 

917

 

1,021

 

929

 

1,085

 

Total

 

$

1,241

 

$

1,500

 

$

1,505

 

$

1,352

 

$

1,266

 

 



 

Dollars in millions

 

 

 

2005

 

2006

 

2007

 

2008

 

2009

 

Total

 

Total

 

$

1,241

 

$

1,500

 

$

1,505

 

$

1,352

 

$

1,266

 

$

6,864

 

 

 

 

Anticipated Annual Growth in Average Rate Base

 

 

 

2005

 

2006

 

2007

 

2008

 

2009

 

Average
Annual

 

2004 Rate base $10.5 billion

 

4

%

4

%

7

%

5

%

2

%

4.4

%

 



 

Sources of Funding

 

                  Growing cash from operations

 

                  Tax loss carry-forward

 

                  Proceeds from asset sales

 

                  Financing:

                  Dividend reinvestment program

                  Modest debt issuance

                  No equity issuance necessary through 2006

 

                  Uncertain whether there is a need for public equity issuance in 2007 or 2008

 



 

NSP — Minnesota Rate Cases

 

North Dakota Gas

 

Approved June

 

$0.7 million increase

 

 

 

 

 

Minnesota Gas

 

Approved July
10.4% ROE

 

$5.8 million increase

 

 

 

 

 

Minnesota Electric

 

To be filed Winter 2005

2006 test year

 

 

 

 

Interim rates early 2006

 

 

 

 

Decision Summer 2006

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North Dakota Electric

 

To be filed Winter 2005

 

 

 

 

Interim rates early 2006

 

 

 

 

Decision Summer 2006

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

South Dakota Electric

 

To be filed mid-2006

 

 

 

 

Decision 2007

 

 

 



 

PSCo Rate Cases

 

Colorado Gas

 

Filed May 27

 

 

Requested $33.4 million

 

 

11% ROE

 

 

55.49% common equity

 

 

Year-end rate base

 

 

Decision early 2006

 

 

 

Colorado Electric

 

To be filed Spring 2006

 

 

Decision early 2007

 



 

Wisconsin Electric and Gas Rate Case

 

Requested ROE  11.9%

Common equity ratio  56.32%

Electric requested:  Revenue increase of $40.8 million

Gas requested:  Revenue increase of $7.0 million

Rates expected to be in effect January 2006

 



 

SPS Rate Case

 

Texas Electric

 

To be filed Summer 2006

 

 

Decision 2007

 

 

 

New Mexico Electric

 

To be filed 2006

 

 

Decision 2007

 



 

Potential Regulatory Income and Depreciation*

 

 

 

2004

 

Potential Result
2009

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average rate base

 

$

10.5

 B

$13 B

 

Regulatory equity ratio

 

50.4

%

50 – 52%

 

Equity rate base

 

$

5.3

 B

$6.5 – 6.76 B

 

Regulatory return on equity

 

9.6

%

10 – 11%

 

Regulatory net income

 

$

506

 M

$650 – $744 M**

 

Depreciation – Cash flow

 

$

735

 M

$910 M***

 

Potential regulatory net income and depreciation from regulated operations

 

$

1,241

 M

$1,560 – $1,654 M

 

 


*                           All figures except 2004 depreciation are on an estimated regulatory basis, which differs from GAAP reporting. A reconciliation from GAAP reporting is shown in the appendix.

**                    Calculated by multiplying equity rate base by regulatory return on equity.

***             Assumes depreciation grows at the same rate as rate base.

 



 

Regulatory Net Income Growth Potential

 

 

 

2004

 

2005 – 2009
Potential

 

Annual
Growth
Rate

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rate base

 

$

10.5

 B

$13 B

 

4.4%

 

Utility equity capitalization

 

50

%

50 – 52%

 

0 to 0.8%

 

Earned return on utility rate base equity

 

9.7

%

10 – 11%

 

0 to 2.6%

 

Total potential growth

 

 

 

 

 

4.4 to 7.8%

 

 



 

Company-Owned Life Insurance (COLI)

 

                  IRS dispute over tax deductibility of COLI

                  $350 million potential exposure for tax and interest

                  $65 million potential exposure for penalties

                  2005 guidance includes $40 million tax benefit or 9 cents per share for COLI

                  It will potentially take several years to resolve

 

                  Potential FASB financial reporting issue

                  Exposure draft issued on uncertain tax positions

                  Impacts financial reporting not cash flows

 



 

2005 EPS Guidance Continuing Operations *

 

 

 

2005
Guidance

 

 

 

 

 

Regulated utility

 

$1.27 – 1.37

 

Holding Company & other

 

(0.09)

 

Total earnings from continuing operations

 

$1.18 – 1.28

 

 


* 2005 Guidance includes COLI tax benefits of 9 cents per share

 



 

Dividend

 

                  Annual dividend increased by 3 cents May 2005

 

                  Current annual dividend rate of 86 cents

 

                  Annual dividend increases consistent with long-term earnings growth of 2 – 4%

 

[GRAPHIC]

 



 

Transparent Low-Risk Strategy

 

                  Constructive legislative & regulatory climate

 

                  Strategy delivers:

                  Competitive total return to shareholders

                  Improving credit metrics

 



 

[GRAPHIC]

 

Appendix

 



 

[LOGO]

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

4th largest US electric and gas utility — Customers:

 

3.3 Million Electric
1.8 Million Gas

 

Strong Regional
Economy

 

Unemployment rate — February 2005

 

 

 

US

 

5.8

%

Xcel service area

 

4.7

%

 

 

 

 

Job growth – 2005 Forecast

 

 

 

Xcel service area

 

2.4

%

 

 

 

 

Xcel Annual sales growth — 2005-2009

 

 

 

Electric

 

2.0

%

Gas

 

1.2

%

 



 

Organizational Structure 2004 Results

 

 

Xcel Energy Inc.

Income from Continuing

 

$527

Operations (Dollars in Millions)

 

 

 

 

Holding

 

 

Company

 

 

$(43)

 

 

 

 

Northern
States
Power
Company -
Minnesota

Northern
States
Power
Company -
Wisconsin

Public
Service
Company of
Colorado

Southwestern
Public
Service
Company

Subsidiaries

•    Eloigne

•    Quixx

$230

$54

$218

$55

$13

 

 

 

 

 

Regulated

Nonregulated

 



 

Rate Base and Returns

 

Dollars in millions

 

 

 

Rate Base
2004
Average

 

Earned
ROE
2004

 

Authorized
ROE

 

Equity
Ratio
2004

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Minnesota - Electric retail

 

$

2,992

 

10.73

%

11.47

%

50.3

%

Minnesota - Gas retail

 

402

 

8.50

 

11.40

 

50.3

 

North Dakota - Electric retail

 

166

 

10.80

 

12.00

 

50.3

 

North Dakota - Gas retail

 

39

 

8.18

 

11.50

 

47.6

 

Colorado - Electric retail

 

3,042

 

9.18

 

10.75

 

50.1

 

Colorado - Gas retail

 

996

 

8.76

 

11.00

 

50.1

 

Texas - Electric retail

 

889

 

9.39

 

11.50

 

48.7

 

NSP (W) - Retail electric

 

538

 

NR

 

11.90

 

55.8

 

NSP (W) - Retail gas

 

70

 

NR

 

11.90

 

55.8

 

Non-reported

 

1.4

 B

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total including non-reported

 

10.5

 B

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


NR:  Non-reportable

 



 

Reconciliation of Estimated Regulatory Reporting from GAAP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dollars in millions 

 

 

Common Equity

 

 

 

NSP (M)

 

NSP (W)

 

PSCo

 

SPS

 

Total

 

2004 GAAP common stockholder’s equity (1)

 

$

2,007

 

$

433

 

$

2,287

 

$

781

 

$

5,507

 

2003 GAAP common stockholder’s equity (1)

 

1,809

 

425

 

2,140

 

814

 

5,188

 

Average GAAP common stockholder’s equity

 

1,908

 

429

 

2,213

 

798

 

5,348

 

Adjustments

 

-5

 

-5

 

64

 

-11

 

43

 

Adjusted average equity for purposes of regulatory equity ratio

 

$

1,903

 

$

424

 

$

2,277

 

$

787

 

$

5,391

 

 

Debt
Source: 2004 Operating Company 10-K’s

 

 

 

NSP (M)

 

NSP (W)

 

PSCo

 

SPS

 

Total

 

2004 GAAP total debt (1) (2)

 

$

2,032

 

$

348

 

$

2,502

 

$

861

 

$

5,743

 

2003 GAAP total debt (1) (2)

 

2,003

 

337

 

1,845

 

825

 

5,010

 

Average GAAP total debt

 

2,018

 

342

 

2,173

 

843

 

5,376

 

Adjustments

 

-140

 

-6

 

94

 

-16

 

-68

 

Adjusted average debt for purposes of regulatory equity ratio

 

$

1,878

 

$

336

 

$

2,267

 

$

827

 

$

5,308

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regulatory equity ratio

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

50.4

%

 


(1)         Source: 2004 Operating Company 10-K’s

(2)         Consists of long-term debt, current portion of long-term debt and short-term debt

See note on the bottom of the following page for additional information

 



 

Net Income

Dollars in millions

 

 

 

NSP (M)

 

NSP (W)

 

PSCo

 

SPS

 

Total

 

2004 GAAP net income (1)

 

$

230

 

$

54

 

$

218

 

$

55

 

$

557

 

Adjustments

 

-25

 

 

 

-26

 

 

 

-51

 

Adjusted net income for purposes of regulatory net income

 

$

205

 

$

54

 

$

192

 

$

55

 

$

506

 

 

Calculation of Regulatory Net Income

 

Estimated regulatory rate base ($10.5 B) x Regulatory equity ratio (50.4%) = Estimated equity rate base ($5.3 B)

Regulatory net income ($506 M) ÷ Estimated equity rate base ($5.3 B) = Estimated regulatory return on equity (9.6%)

 

Depreciation & Amortization – Cash Flows

 

 

 

NSP (M)

 

NSP (W)

 

PSCo

 

SPS

 

Total

 

2004 GAAP depreciation and
amortization – cash flow (1)

 

$

352

 

$

48

 

$

234

 

$

100

 

$

735

 

 


(1)         Source: 2004 Operating Company 10-K’s

 

Financial results for regulatory reporting frequently differ from GAAP.

Regulatory reporting includes the use of 12 and 13 month averages for capitalization, eliminates inter-company transactions, excludes non-regulated investments, includes or excludes revenues and or expenses associated with various recovery mechanisms and other factors, all of which may vary from one regulatory jurisdiction to another.

 



 

Capital Expenditures $6.9 Billion 2005 – 2009

 

[CHART]

 



 

Capital Expenditure Forecast by Operating Company

 

Dollars in Millions

 

 

 

2005

 

2006

 

2007

 

2008

 

2009

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NSP-Minnesota

 

$

645

 

$

832

 

$

713

 

$

571

 

$

605

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NSP-Wisconsin

 

60

 

79

 

75

 

74

 

68

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PSCo

 

425

 

499

 

593

 

591

 

488

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SPS

 

111

 

90

 

124

 

116

 

105

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

$

1,241

 

$

1,500

 

$

1,505

 

$

1,352

 

$

1,266

 

 



 

NSP — Minnesota Operating Company
Capital Expenditure Forecast

 

Dollars in millions

 

 

 

2005

 

2006

 

2007

 

2008

 

2009

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MERP

 

$

191

 

$

404

 

$

197

 

$

125

 

$

56

 

$

973

 

Excluding MERP

 

454

 

428

 

516

 

446

 

549

 

2,393

 

Total

 

$

645

 

$

832

 

$

713

 

$

571

 

$

605

 

$

3,366

 

 

MERP

 

$

973

 

Transmission

 

459

 

Nuclear fuel

 

336

 

Balance of electric

 

1,250

 

Gas

 

188

 

Common

 

160

 

Total

 

$

3,366

 

 



 

PSCo Operating Company
Capital Expenditure Forecast

 

Dollars in millions

 

 

 

2005

 

2006

 

2007

 

2008

 

2009

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Comanche 3

 

$

59

 

$

179

 

$

287

 

$

298

 

$

125

 

$

948

 

Excl. Comanche 3

 

366

 

320

 

306

 

293

 

363

 

1,648

 

Total

 

$

425

 

$

499

 

$

593

 

$

591

 

$

488

 

$

2,596

 

 

Comanche 3

 

$

948

 

Transmission

 

280

 

Balance of electric

 

809

 

Gas

 

438

 

Common

 

98

 

Thermal

 

16

 

Non-utility

 

7

 

Total

 

$

2,596

 

 



 

SPS Operating Company
Capital Expenditure Forecast

 

Dollars in millions

 

 

 

2005

 

2006

 

2007

 

2008

 

2009

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

$

111

 

$

90

 

$

124

 

$

116

 

$

105

 

$

546

 

 

Transmission

 

$

140

 

Balance of electric

 

406

 

Total electric

 

$

546

 

 



 

NSP — Wisconsin Operating Company
Capital Expenditure Forecast

 

Dollars in millions

 

 

 

2005

 

2006

 

2007

 

2008

 

2009

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

$

60

 

$

79

 

$

75

 

$

74

 

$

68

 

$

356

 

 

Transmission

 

$

73

 

Balance of electric

 

200

 

Gas

 

45

 

Common

 

38

 

Total

 

$

356

 

 



 

Minnesota MERP — Potential Earnings

 

Dollars in millions

 

 

 

2005

 

2006

 

2007

 

2008

 

2009

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Capital expenditures

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current year

 

$

191

 

$

404

 

$

197

 

$

125

 

$

56

 

Cumulative

 

$

238

 

$

642

 

$

839

 

$

964

 

$

1,020

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity ratio

 

48.5

%

48.5

%

48.5

%

48.5

%

48.5

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Return on equity

 

10.86

%

10.86

%

10.86

%

10.86

%

10.86

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity return

 

$

8

 

$

24

 

$

40

 

$

48

 

$

53

 

 



 

Comanche 3 — Potential Earnings

 

Dollars in Millions

 

 

 

2005

 

2006

 

2007

 

2008

 

2009

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Capital expenditures

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current year

 

$

59

 

$

179

 

$

287

 

$

298

 

$

125

 

Cumulative

 

$

62

 

$

241

 

$

528

 

$

826

 

$

951

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity ratio

 

56

%

56

%

56

%

56

%

56

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Return on equity

 

10.75

%

10.75

%

10.75

%

10.75

%

10.75

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity return

 

$

2

 

$

9

 

$

23

 

$

41

 

$

54

 

 



 

Energy Supply Mix — 2004
Owned and Purchased

 

Fuel Mix

Purchased Energy

 

 

[CHART]

[CHART]

 


*  Low-sulfur, low-mercury western coal

 



 

Coal Supply Contracted

 

[GRAPHIC]

 

 

 

Coal

 

Coal
Transportation

 

2005

 

99

%

100

%

2006

 

78

 

75

 

2007

 

65

 

45

 

2008

 

46

 

45

 

 

Annual consumption:  32 Million tons of low-sulfur, low-mercury western coal

 



 

Electric Fuel and Purchased Energy
Cost Recovery Mechanisms

 

Minnesota:

 

Monthly recovery of prospective costs

 

 

 

Colorado:

 

Recovery of costs with sharing of deviations up to + $11.25 million from benchmark

 

 

 

Texas:

 

File for semi-annual adjustments – required if + 4% annually

 

 

 

Wisconsin:

 

Biennial rate case – file for interim adjustment if costs fall outside + 2% annually

 

 

 

New Mexico:

 

Recovery of costs with 2 month lag

 



 

Retail Electric Rate * Comparison

 

[CHART]

 


* EEI typical bills – Summer 2004

 



 

Senior Debt Ratings

 

 

 

Moody’s

 

S&P

 

 

 

Secured

 

Unsecured

 

Secured

 

Unsecured

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Holding Co.

 

 

Baa1

 

 

BBB-

 

NSPM

 

A2

 

A3

 

A-

 

BBB-

 

NSPW

 

A2

 

A3

 

A-

 

BBB

 

PSCo

 

A3

 

Baa1

 

A-

 

BBB-

 

SPS

 

 

Baa1

 

 

BBB

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Outlook

 

 

 

Stable

 

 

 

Stable

 

 



 

[LOGO]

 

[GRAPHIC]