EX-99.(C)(9) 2 a2169089zex-99_c9.htm EXHIBIT 99.(C)(9)


















 

Searchable text section of graphics shown above

 

 



Project Heron

 

Presentation to the Board of Directors

 

PRELIMINARY | SUBJECT TO FURTHER REVIEW AND EVALUATION

 

April 3,2006

 

THESE MATERIALS MAY NOT BE USED OR RELIED UPON FOR ANY PURPOSE OTHER THAN AS SPECIFICALLY CONTEMPLATED BY A WRITTEN AGREEMENT WITH CREDIT SUISSE AND MORGAN STANLEY.

 

1



Table of Contents

 

1.

 

Valuation Summary

 

 

 

2.

 

Review of Heron Management Plan

 

2



1. Valuation Summary

 

3



Illustrative Valuation Matrix

 

($MM, except per share amounts)

 

 

 

 

 

Unaffected

 

Neptune

 

 

 

 

 

Price

 

Offer

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share Price

 

 

 

$

36.44

 

$

48.00

 

Premium to Share Price Prior to Annc.

 

$

36.44

 

0

%

32

%

Premium to 5-Day Average Share Price

 

35.90

 

2

%

34

%

Premium to 10-Day Average Share Price

 

35.71

 

2

%

34

%

Premium to 30-Day Average Share Price

 

36.12

 

1

%

33

%

Premium to 60-Day Average Share Price

 

36.04

 

1

%

33

%

Premium to 180-Day Average Share Price

 

35.46

 

3

%

35

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CALCULATION OF EQUITY AND AGGREGATE VALUE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shares Outstanding (MM) (1)

 

 

 

197.8

 

197.8

 

“In the Money” Options/Warrants Outstanding (MM) (2)

 

 

 

11.0

 

21.7

 

WAEP of “In the Money” Options/Warrants (2)

 

 

 

$

30.29

 

$

36.56

 

Fully-Diluted Shares Outstanding (MM)

 

 

 

199.6

 

202.9

 

Fully-Diluted Equity Value

 

 

 

$

7,274

 

$

9,741

 

+ Debt (3)

 

 

 

1,108

 

1,108

 

- Cash (3)

 

 

 

(1,524

)

(1,524

)

Fully-Diluted Aggregate Value

 

 

 

6,858

 

9,325

 

Value of Non-Neptune Equity (4)

 

 

 

$

4,132

 

$

5,602

 

 

IMPLIED VALUATION MULTIPLES (5)

 

 

 

Statistic

 

Implied Multiples

 

Offer Multiple

 

 

 

Mgmt.

 

Street

 

Mgmt.

 

Street

 

Mgmt.

 

Street

 

Revenue

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CY2006E

 

$

2,263

 

$

2,224

 

3.0

x

3.1

x

4.1

x

4.2

x

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Earnings

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CY2006E

 

$

1.62

 

$

1.85

 

22.4

x

19.7

x

29.5

x

25.9

x

CY2007E

 

1.68

 

1.87

 

21.7

 

19.5

 

28.6

 

25.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PEG (6)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CY2006E

 

16.6

%

16.6

%

1.35

x

1.19

x

1.78

x

1.57

x

 

Note:  Unaffected price as of August 31, 2005, the day prior to public announcement of the Neptune letter.

 


(1)  Based on Heron primary shares of 197.8MM from Proxy dated March 3, 2006.

(2)  Based on Heron options schedule from 10-K for the period ended December 31, 2005.

(3)  Based on Heron estimate of Q1-06 cash position, and debt from 10-K for the period ended December 31, 2005.

(4)  Based on 86.2MM Heron shares held by Neptune from Proxy dated March 3, 2006.

(5)  Heron estimates based upon First Call consensus and Heron Management Forecast as of March 2006.

(6)  Based on an IBES LTGR of 16.6%.

 

4



Heron’s Valuation Parameters

 

Assessment of Valuation (1)

$

 

[CHART]

 


(1) Street forecast EPS estimates as of 3/31/06

(2) Assumes perpetual growth rate of 1.0% 3.0% for BioPharma (midpoint LTM NOPAT multiple of 12.3x), 2.0% 4.0% for Vaccines (midpoint LTM NOPAT multiple of 15.0x), 2.0% 4.0% for Blood Testing (midpoint LTM NOPAT multiple of 13.3x) and (2.0)% 0.0% for Corporate Royalties (midpoint LTM NOPAT multiple of 8.7x); derived from Heron Management

 

5



Forecast Updates Since October

 

   First year of plan revised per 2006 budget

   Certain product forecasts updated based on recent actions or events

 

Product

 

Action or Event

 

Forecast Adjustment

 

 

 

 

 

tifacogin

 

Slow enrollment

 

Launch delayed one year

 

 

 

 

 

Men vaccines

 

Positive infant data in ACWY –> revised strategic focus on infants

 

Men ACWY POS –> 50%; 2010 launch

 

Men B launch delayed 3 years (2012 vs. 2009)

 

Men ABCWY launch delayed 4 years (2015 vs. 2011)

 

 

 

 

 

Ultrio U.S.

 

FDA decisions re: Tigris and Ultrio

 

Ultrio/Duplex revenues reduced by 25% in 2006/2007 and 20% in 2008/2009

 

 

 

 

 

Next-generation
NAT

 

Gen-Probe’s updated development timeline

 

Launch delayed one year 2011/2010 (US/ex-US) vs. 2010/2009

 

 

 

 

 

CJD

 

Updated development and regulatory timeline

 

Launch delayed two years (2009 vs. 2007)

 

 

 

 

 

ECO

 

FDA requirements re: clinical studies

 

Launched delayed two years 2011 (US)/2010 (ex-US) vs. 2009/2008

 

6



Financial Projection Comparison

 

Financial Projection Comparison

March 2006 Management Forecast vs. October 2005 Management Forecast $MM

 

 

 

2006

 

2007

 

2008

 

2009

 

2010

 

2011

 

2012

 

2013

 

2014

 

2015

 

BioPharma

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 2006 Management Forecast

 

637.1

 

652.0

 

676.4

 

734.8

 

869.3

 

1,113.2

 

1,281.9

 

1,471.6

 

1,524.4

 

1,621.4

 

October 2005 Management Forecast

 

612.0

 

652.0

 

699.9

 

852.4

 

1,084.1

 

1,222.5

 

1,450.3

 

1,473.4

 

1,562.7

 

1,675.2

 

% Increase/(Decrease)

 

4.1

%

0.0

%

-3.4

%

-13.8

%

-19.8

%

-8.9

%

-11.6

%

-0.1

%

-2.4

%

-3.2

%

EBIT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 2006 Management Forecast

 

15.5

 

(9.1

)

(66.8

)

(35.8

)

65.6

 

227.7

 

288.0

 

392.4

 

394.6

 

433.2

 

October 2005 Management Forecast

 

(32.9

)

(38.7

)

(97.7

)

67.5

 

259.4

 

293.7

 

406.6

 

376.5

 

426.5

 

479.7

 

% Increase/(Decrease)

 

147.2

%

76.6

%

31.6

%

-153.1

%

-74.7

%

-22.5

%

-29.2

%

4.2

%

-7.5

%

-9.7

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vaccines

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 2006 Management Forecast

 

959.0

 

998.3

 

1,094.4

 

1,138.4

 

1,231.0

 

1,293.4

 

1,547.2

 

1,707.0

 

1,742.7

 

1,519.9

 

October 2005 Management Forecast

 

920.5

 

998.3

 

1,094.4

 

1,339.9

 

1,582.4

 

1,708.4

 

1,710.2

 

1,474.1

 

1,424.7

 

1,329.5

 

% Increase/(Decrease)

 

4.2

%

0.0

%

0.0

%

-15.0

%

-22.2

%

-24.3

%

-9.5

%

15.8

%

22.3

%

14.3

%

EBIT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 2006 Management Forecast

 

164.4

 

223.3

 

267.4

 

247.0

 

330.9

 

369.6

 

548.3

 

673.3

 

697.4

 

623.3

 

October 2005 Management Forecast

 

159.1

 

227.5

 

277.9

 

394.4

 

584.1

 

653.0

 

640.6

 

476.3

 

429.1

 

468.8

 

% Increase/(Decrease)

 

3.3

%

-1.8

%

-3.8

%

-37.4

%

-43.3

%

-43.4

%

-14.4

%

41.4

%

62.5

%

33.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Blood Testing

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 2006 Management Forecast

 

574.4

 

568.7

 

618.8

 

681.8

 

734.2

 

795.3

 

886.9

 

927.7

 

969.4

 

1,022.4

 

October 2005 Management Forecast

 

608.6

 

700.8

 

781.5

 

886.8

 

918.6

 

998.4

 

1,008.2

 

1,042.5

 

1,077.7

 

1,110.2

 

% Increase/(Decrease)

 

-5.6

%

-18.8

%

-20.8

%

-23.1

%

-20.1

%

-20.3

%

-12.0

%

-11.0

%

-10.0

%

-7.9

%

EBIT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 2006 Management Forecast

 

276.8

 

262.4

 

295.4

 

333.4

 

327.1

 

346.6

 

377.8

 

385.4

 

392.1

 

404.7

 

October 2005 Management Forecast

 

301.2

 

338.6

 

386.1

 

430.0

 

404.2

 

430.8

 

425.8

 

429.1

 

432.7

 

435.8

 

% Increase/(Decrease)

 

-8.1

%

-22.5

%

-23.5

%

-22.5

%

-19.1

%

-19.5

%

-11.3

%

-10.2

%

-9.4

%

-7.1

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consolidated

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 2006 Management Forecast

 

2,262.5

 

2,304.5

 

2,489.0

 

2,659.7

 

2,912.8

 

3,282.8

 

3,801.2

 

4,196.9

 

4,332.9

 

4,260.1

 

October 2005 Management Forecast

 

2,222.2

 

2,436.6

 

2,675.3

 

3,183.9

 

3,663.4

 

4,010.1

 

4,254.1

 

4,080.7

 

4,161.4

 

4,211.1

 

% Increase/(Decrease)

 

1.8

%

-5.4

%

-7.0

%

-16.5

%

-20.5

%

-18.1

%

-10.6

%

2.8

%

4.1

%

1.2

%

EBIT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 2006 Management Forecast

 

410.8

 

439.1

 

467.0

 

515.6

 

664.2

 

881.2

 

1,150.0

 

1,386.2

 

1,418.3

 

1,388.0

 

October 2005 Management Forecast

 

389.4

 

489.7

 

537.5

 

863.1

 

1,188.2

 

1,314.8

 

1,408.9

 

1,217.1

 

1,222.5

 

1,311.1

 

% Increase/(Decrease)

 

5.5

%

-10.3

%

-13.1

%

-40.3

%

-44.1

%

-33.0

%

-18.4

%

13.9

%

16.0

%

5.9

%

 

7



Heron Consolidated Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

 

Long-Term Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

 

Heron

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Perpetual Growth Rate (%)

 

2.0

 

3.0

 

4.0

 

Discount Rate

 

10.0%

 

11.0%

 

12.0%

 

10.0%

 

11.0%

 

12.0%

 

10.0%

 

11.0%

 

12.0%

 

Present Value of (1)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash Flows - Year 1

 

$

62

 

$

62

 

$

62

 

$

62

 

$

62

 

$

62

 

$

62

 

$

62

 

$

62

 

Cash Flows - Year 2-10

 

3,109

 

2,937

 

2,777

 

3,109

 

2,937

 

2,777

 

3,109

 

2,937

 

2,777

 

Terminus

 

5,912

 

4,833

 

4,004

 

6,823

 

5,491

 

4,492

 

8,037

 

6,336

 

5,103

 

Aggregate Value

 

$

9,084

 

$

7,832

 

$

6,842

 

$

9,994

 

$

8,490

 

$

7,331

 

$

11,209

 

$

9,335

 

$

7,941

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Equity Value (3)

 

$

9,500

 

$

8,248

 

$

7,258

 

$

10,410

 

$

8,906

 

$

7,747

 

$

11,625

 

$

9,751

 

$

8,357

 

Implied Share Price(2)

 

$

46.90

 

$

41.10

 

$

36.36

 

$

51.05

 

$

44.17

 

$

38.70

 

$

56.45

 

$

48.05

 

$

41.61

 

Premium over Pre-Announcement

 

28.7

%

12.8

%

(0.2

)%

40.1

%

21.2

%

6.2

%

54.9

%

31.9

%

14.2

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Terminal Value Analysis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

% Value in Terminus

 

65.1

%

61.7

%

58.5

%

68.3

%

64.7

%

61.3

%

71.7

%

67.9

%

64.3

%

% Value in Cash Flows

 

34.9

%

38.3

%

41.5

%

31.7

%

35.3

%

38.7

%

28.3

%

32.1

%

35.7

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Implied Terminal Multiples

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LTM Sales Multiple

 

3.5

x

3.1

x

2.8

x

4.1

x

3.6

x

3.2

x

4.8

x

4.1

x

3.6

x

LTM EBITDA Multiple

 

9.2

 

8.3

 

7.5

 

10.7

 

9.4

 

8.4

 

12.6

 

10.8

 

9.5

 

LTM NOPAT Multiple

 

14.4

 

12.8

 

11.6

 

16.6

 

14.6

 

13.0

 

19.6

 

16.8

 

14.8

 

 

Source: Heron Management Forecast as of March 2006

 


(1) Valuation as of 3/31/06 assuming mid-period convention

 

(2) Based on fully diluted share count and pre-announcement share price of $36.44 as of 8/31/05

 

(3) Assumes net cash of $416.0MM per Heron estimate of 1Q06 cash position and debt as of 2005 10-K

 

8



Discounted Cash Flow Sensitivity Analysis

 

Deviation from Midpoint Valuation (1) $

 

[CHART]

 


(1) Base DCF value of $44.17 assumes a discount rate of 11.0% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.0%

(2) Assumes additional 160MM doses (2 doses each for 80MM people) of egg flu pandemic stockpile in 2008 and 2011 with price per dose of $9.68 ($5.18 bulk, $3.50 premium, $1.00 fill & finish)

(3) Assumes US flu cell culture accelerated by three years due to government pressure; US POS increased to match EUP OS of 75% Source: Heron Management Forecast as of March 2006

 

9



Heron Sum-of-the-Parts Analysis

 

Perpetual Growth Methodology (1)

 

Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation

 

[CHART]

 


(1) Assumes a discount rate of 11.0%

(2) As of August 31, 2005

(3) Assumes perpetual growth rate of 2.0% for BioPharma, 3.0% for Vaccines, 3.0% for Blood Testing and (1.0)% for Corporate Royalties

 

Source: Heron Management Forecast as of March 2006

 

10



Selected Companies Analysis

 

(in millions, except per share amounts)

 

 

 

Stock

 

% Of

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NOPAT

 

 

 

 

 

Long-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Price

 

52-Week

 

Equity

 

Enterprise

 

Revenue Multiple

 

Multiple

 

P/E

 

Term

 

PEG

 

Company

 

3/31/2006

 

High

 

Value

 

Value

 

CY 2006E

 

CY 2007E

 

LTM

 

CY 2006E

 

CY 2007E

 

EPS Grw.

 

CY 2006E

 

CY 2007E

 

Large Cap Biotech

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Amgen

 

$

72.75

 

84

%

$

86,896

 

$

88,839

 

6.2

x

5.5

x

22.4

x

20.0

x

17.6

x

15

%

1.3

x

1.1

x

Biogen Idec

 

47.10

 

93

%

16,385

 

14,109

 

5.3

 

4.7

 

58.3

 

24.2

 

20.8

 

14

%

1.7

 

1.5

 

Celgene

 

44.22

 

100

%

17,478

 

16,754

 

21.2

 

13.8

 

NM

 

108.1

 

50.1

 

49

%

2.2

 

1.0

 

Genentech

 

84.51

 

84

%

91,127

 

89,396

 

10.3

 

8.1

 

NM

 

45.7

 

34.1

 

32

%

1.4

 

1.1

 

Genzyme

 

67.22

 

86

%

17,923

 

17,520

 

5.5

 

4.8

 

42.3

 

24.6

 

21.1

 

19

%

1.3

 

1.1

 

Gilead Sciences

 

62.22

 

96

%

29,801

 

27,785

 

11.1

 

9.2

 

37.3

 

29.9

 

25.5

 

20

%

1.5

 

1.3

 

MedImmune

 

36.58

 

97

%

9,507

 

8,535

 

6.2

 

5.4

 

NM

 

89.9

 

37.4

 

34

%

2.7

 

1.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mean

 

 

 

9.4

x

7.4

x

40.1

x

48.9

x

29.5

x

26

%

1.7

x

1.2

x

 

 

 

 

 

 

Median

 

 

 

6.2

 

5.5

 

39.8

 

29.9

 

25.5

 

20

%

1.5

 

1.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

High

 

 

 

21.2

 

13.8

 

58.3

 

108.1

 

50.1

 

49

%

2.7

 

1.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Low

 

 

 

5.3

 

4.7

 

22.4

 

20.0

 

17.6

 

14

%

1.3

 

1.0

 

 

(in millions, except per share amounts)

 

 

 

Stock

 

% Of

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NOPAT

 

 

 

 

 

Long-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Price

 

52-Week

 

Equity

 

Enterprise

 

Revenue Multiple

 

Multiple

 

P/E

 

Term

 

PEG

 

Company

 

3/31/2006

 

High

 

Value

 

Value

 

CY 2006E

 

CY 2007E

 

LTM

 

CY 2006E

 

CY 2007E

 

EPS Grw.

 

CY 2006E

 

CY 2007E

 

BioPharma & Blood Testing

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Abbott Laboratories

 

$

42.47

 

85

%

$

65,625

 

$

69,173

 

3.2

x

2.9

x

18.8

x

16.8

x

15.1

x

9

%

1.8

 x

1.6

x

Bayer AG

 

40.66

 

90

%

29,696

 

34,714

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

18.7

 

12.6

 

11.9

 

19

%

0.7

 

0.6

 

Johnson & Johnson

 

59.22

 

85

%

177,594

 

164,121

 

3.1

 

2.9

 

17.0

 

16.1

 

14.7

 

11

%

1.5

 

1.4

 

Roche Holdings

 

154.23

 

93

%

133,190

 

129,699

 

4.1

 

3.6

 

20.9

 

23.5

 

19.9

 

14

%

1.3

 

1.1

 

BioPharma & Vaccines

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GlaxoSmithKline

 

$

27.07

 

95

%

$

157,470

 

$

160,161

 

3.8

x

3.6

x

32.1

x

16.5

x

15.5

x

10

%

1.6

x

1.5

x

MedImmune

 

36.58

 

97

%

9,507

 

8,535

 

6.2

 

5.4

 

NM

 

89.9

 

37.4

 

34

%

2.7

 

1.1

 

Merck & Co.

 

35.23

 

96

%

77,149

 

70,908

 

3.4

 

3.4

 

15.9

 

15.1

 

15.0

 

4

%

3.9

 

3.8

 

Sanofi Aventis

 

96.55

 

98

%

134,556

 

150,793

 

4.2

 

4.0

 

NM

 

15.0

 

14.0

 

10

%

1.5

 

1.4

 

Wyeth

 

48.52

 

96

%

65,587

 

66,584

 

3.3

 

3.1

 

19.2

 

16.0

 

14.7

 

9

%

1.9

 

1.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mean

 

 

 

3.6

x

3.4

x

21.1

x

23.8

x

17.5

x

13

%

1.8

1.6

x

 

 

 

 

 

 

Median

 

 

 

3.6

 

3.5

 

19.0

 

16.2

 

15.1

 

11

%

1.5

 

1.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

High

 

 

 

6.2

 

5.4

 

32.1

 

89.9

 

37.4

 

34

%

3.9

 

3.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Low

 

 

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

15.9

 

12.6

 

11.9

 

4

%

0.7

 

0.6

 

 

(in millions, except per share amounts)

 

 

 

Stock

 

% Of

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NOPAT

 

 

 

 

 

Long-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Price

 

52-Week

 

Equity

 

Enterprise

 

Revenue Multiple

 

Multiple

 

P/E

 

Term

 

PEG

 

Company

 

3/31/2006

 

High

 

Value

 

Value

 

CY 2006E

 

CY 2007E

 

LTM

 

CY 2006E

 

CY 2007E

 

EPS Grw.

 

CY 2006E

 

CY 2007E

 

Blood Testing

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Beckman Coulter

 

$

54.57

 

77

%

$

3,539

 

$

4,225

 

1.7

x

1.5

x

21.8

x

19.3

x

16.7

x

14

%

1.4

x

1.2

x

Bio-Rad Laboratories

 

62.35

 

90

%

1,670

 

1,686

 

1.4

 

NA

 

20.3

 

22.0

 

16.8

 

10

%

2.2

 

1.7

 

Biosite

 

51.93

 

75

%

964

 

848

 

2.7

 

2.4

 

19.6

 

24.5

 

21.4

 

18

%

1.4

 

1.2

 

Cytyc

 

28.18

 

92

%

3,337

 

3,369

 

5.6

 

4.8

 

27.5

 

26.3

 

21.6

 

20

%

1.3

 

1.1

 

Dade Behring Holdings

 

35.71

 

85

%

3,215

 

3,572

 

2.1

 

1.9

 

23.5

 

23.4

 

21.0

 

18

%

1.3

 

1.2

 

Digene

 

39.10

 

88

%

900

 

809

 

4.9

 

3.7

 

NM

 

47.5

 

25.8

 

29

%

1.7

 

0.9

 

Diagnostic Products

 

47.63

 

83

%

1,430

 

1,335

 

2.6

 

2.3

 

20.2

 

18.2

 

16.4

 

16

%

1.1

 

1.0

 

Gen-Probe

 

55.12

 

98

%

2,929

 

2,709

 

8.1

 

6.9

 

58.4

 

54.1

 

39.9

 

21

%

2.6

 

1.9

 

Immucor

 

28.69

 

80

%

1,329

 

1,293

 

6.4

 

NA

 

39.1

 

40.6

 

28.4

 

23

%

1.7

 

1.2

 

Tripath Imaging

 

6.98

 

74

%

273

 

251

 

2.4

 

2.0

 

NM

 

38.1

 

25.4

 

35

%

1.1

 

0.7

 

Ventana Medical System

 

41.77

 

93

%

1,643

 

1,593

 

6.7

 

NM

 

59.0

 

48.4

 

34.9

 

29

%

1.7

 

1.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mean

 

 

 

4.0

x

3.2

x

32.2

x

33.0

x

24.4

x

21

%

1.6

x

1.2

x

 

 

 

 

 

 

Median

 

 

 

2.7

 

2.4

 

23.5

 

26.3

 

21.6

 

20

%

1.4

 

1.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

High

 

 

 

8.1

 

6.9

 

59.0

 

54.1

 

39.9

 

35

%

2.6

 

1.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Low

 

 

 

1.4

 

1.5

 

19.6

 

18.2

 

16.4

 

10

%

1.1

 

0.7

 

 

Note: Calendarized P/E Multiples and Long-Term EPS Growth Rates are based on I/B/E/S estimates; Projections from Wall Street Equity Research.

 

11



(in millions, except per share amounts)

 

 

 

Stock

 

% Of

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NOPAT

 

 

 

 

 

Long-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Price

 

52-Week

 

Equity

 

Enterprise

 

Revenue Multiple

 

Multiple

 

P/E

 

Term

 

PEG

 

Company

 

3/31/2006

 

High

 

Value

 

Value

 

CY 2006E

 

CY 2007E

 

LTM

 

CY 2006E

 

CY 2007E

 

EPS Grw.

 

CY 2006E

 

CY 2007E

 

Vaccines

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Acambis

 

$

3.50

 

73.0

%

$

375

 

$

276

 

2.5

x

NM

 

NM

 

NM

 

NM

 

NM

 

NM

 

NM

 

Berna Biotech AG

 

12.08

 

92.1

%

454

 

386

 

2.2

 

1.8

 

NM

 

NM

 

NM

 

3

%

NM

 

NM

 

CSL Limited

 

41.09

 

96.1

%

7,614

 

7,938

 

3.6

 

3.3

 

17.2

 

25.5

 

21.2

 

17

%

1.5

 

1.3

 

Nabi Biopharmaceuticals

 

5.64

 

35.3

%

337

 

353

 

2.7

 

2.4

 

NM

 

NM

 

NM

 

NM

 

NM

 

NM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mean

 

 

 

2.8

x

2.5

x

17.2

x

25.5

x

21.2

x

10

%

1.5

x

1.3

x

 

 

 

 

 

 

Median

 

 

 

2.6

 

2.4

 

17.2

 

25.5

 

21.2

 

10

%

1.5

 

1.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

High

 

 

 

3.6

 

3.3

 

17.2

 

25.5

 

21.2

 

17

%

1.5

 

1.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Low

 

 

 

2.2

 

1.8

 

17.2

 

25.5

 

21.2

 

3

%

1.5

 

1.3

 

 

Note: Calendarized P/E Multiples and Long-Term EPS Growth Rates are based on I/B/E/S estimates; Projections from Wall Street Equity Research.

 

(in millions, except per share amounts)

 

 

 

Stock

 

% Of

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NOPAT

 

 

 

 

 

Long-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Price

 

52-Week

 

Equity

 

Enterprise

 

Revenue Multiple

 

Multiple

 

P/E

 

Term

 

PEG

 

Company

 

3/31/2006

 

High

 

Value

 

Value

 

CY 2006E

 

CY 2007E

 

LTM

 

CY 2006E

 

CY 2007E

 

EPS Grw.

 

CY 2006E

 

CY 2007E

 

Biotech

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Allergan

 

$

108.50

 

92

%

$

17,246

 

$

15,919

 

5.4

x

4.7

x

37.3

x

30.4

x

25.7

x

17

%

1.8

x

1.5

x

Biogen Idec

 

47.10

 

93

%

16,385

 

14,109

 

5.3

 

4.7

 

58.3

 

24.2

 

20.8

 

14

%

1.7

 

1.5

 

Celgene

 

44.22

 

100

%

17,478

 

16,754

 

21.2

 

13.8

 

NM

 

108.1

 

50.1

 

49

%

2.2

 

1.0

 

Cephalon

 

60.25

 

73

%

5,660

 

5,202

 

3.4

 

3.2

 

29.9

 

19.1

 

17.4

 

17

%

1.1

 

1.0

 

Elan

 

14.44

 

86

%

6,812

 

7,472

 

12.2

 

8.2

 

NM

 

NM

 

NM

 

15

%

NM

 

NM

 

Forest Laboratories

 

44.63

 

92

%

14,908

 

13,230

 

4.1

 

3.8

 

17.7

 

17.7

 

15.1

 

13

%

1.4

 

1.2

 

Genzyme

 

67.22

 

86

%

17,923

 

17,520

 

5.5

 

4.8

 

42.3

 

24.6

 

21.1

 

19

%

1.3

 

1.1

 

Gilead Sciences

 

62.22

 

96

%

29,801

 

27,785

 

11.1

 

9.2

 

37.3

 

29.9

 

25.5

 

20

%

1.5

 

1.3

 

MedImmune

 

36.58

 

97

%

9,507

 

8,535

 

6.2

 

5.4

 

NM

 

89.9

 

37.4

 

34

%

2.7

 

1.1

 

Millennium Pharmaceuticals

 

10.09

 

90

%

3,169

 

2,709

 

5.5

 

4.8

 

NM

 

NM

 

62.7

 

15

%

NM

 

4.2

 

Serono

 

17.41

 

81

%

10,168

 

9,172

 

3.3

 

3.1

 

NM

 

16.9

 

15.1

 

14

%

1.2

 

1.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mean

 

 

 

7.6

x

6.0

x

37.1

x

40.1

x

29.1

x

21

%

1.7

x

1.5

x

 

 

 

 

 

 

Median

 

 

 

5.5

 

4.8

 

37.3

 

24.6

 

23.3

 

17

%

1.5

 

1.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

High

 

 

 

21.2

 

13.8

 

58.3

 

108.1

 

62.7

 

49

%

2.7

 

4.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Low

 

 

 

3.3

 

3.1

 

17.7

 

16.9

 

15.1

 

13

%

1.1

 

1.0

 

 

Note: Calendarized P/E Multiples and Long-Term EPS Growth Rates are based on I/B/E/S estimates; Projections from Wall Street Equity Research.

 

12



2.  Review of Heron Management Plan

 

13



Heron Management Forecast -Consolidated Income Statement

($ and shares in millions, except per share amounts)

 

Heron

 

Fiscal Year Ending December 31

 

Income Statement

 

2006E

 

2007E

 

2008E

 

2009E

 

2010E

 

2011E

 

2012E

 

2013E

 

2014E

 

2015E

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Revenue

 

$

2,262.5

 

$

2,304.5

 

$

2,489.0

 

$

2,659.7

 

$

2,912.8

 

$

3,282.8

 

$

3,801.2

 

$

4,196.9

 

$

4,332.9

 

$

4,260.1

 

% Growth

 

13.9

%

1.9

%

8.0

%

6.9

%

9.5

%

12.7

%

15.8

%

10.4

%

3.2

%

-1.7

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

COGS

 

823.7

 

838.0

 

894.9

 

1,012.1

 

1,099.3

 

1,163.5

 

1,288.9

 

1,377.9

 

1,437.7

 

1,373.2

 

% Growth

 

13.8

%

1.7

%

6.8

%

13.1

%

8.6

%

5.8

%

10.8

%

6.9

%

4.3

%

-4.5

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross Profit

 

1,438.8

 

1,466.4

 

1,594.1

 

1,647.6

 

1,813.5

 

2,119.2

 

2,512.4

 

2,819.0

 

2,895.2

 

2,886.9

 

% Margin

 

63.6

%

63.6

%

64.0

%

61.9

%

62.3

%

64.6

%

66.1

%

67.2

%

66.8

%

67.8

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

R&D

 

506.5

 

505.6

 

544.9

 

503.7

 

505.5

 

548.8

 

602.5

 

611.7

 

615.6

 

626.4

 

% Margin

 

22.4

%

21.9

%

21.9

%

18.9

%

17.4

%

16.7

%

15.9

%

14.6

%

14.2

%

14.7

%

% Growth

 

16.6

%

-0.2

%

7.8

%

-7.6

%

0.4

%

8.6

%

9.8

%

1.5

%

0.6

%

1.7

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

S&M

 

304.1

 

296.7

 

350.2

 

399.2

 

403.9

 

431.9

 

461.2

 

493.4

 

517.9

 

520.7

 

% Margin

 

13.4

%

12.9

%

14.1

%

15.0

%

13.9

%

13.2

%

12.1

%

11.8

%

12.0

%

12.2

%

% Growth

 

7.2

%

-2.4

%

18.0

%

14.0

%

1.2

%

6.9

%

6.8

%

7.0

%

5.0

%

0.6

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

G&A

 

213.5

 

210.5

 

222.4

 

227.9

 

239.4

 

256.9

 

298.2

 

327.3

 

343.0

 

351.4

 

% Margin

 

9.4

%

9.1

%

8.9

%

8.6

%

8.2

%

7.8

%

7.8

%

7.8

%

7.9

%

8.2

%

% Growth

 

-4.6

%

-1.4

%

5.6

%

2.5

%

5.1

%

7.3

%

16.1

%

9.8

%

4.8

%

2.5

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Expenses

 

4.0

 

14.5

 

9.6

 

1.3

 

0.4

 

0.4

 

0.4

 

0.4

 

0.4

 

0.4

 

% Growth

 

-60.4

%

264.0

%

-33.5

%

-86.7

%

-66.5

%

-0.6

%

0.0

%

0.0

%

0.0

%

0.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EBITDA

 

560.7

 

598.4

 

631.5

 

708.6

 

851.1

 

1,089.8

 

1,369.9

 

1,612.1

 

1,635.8

 

1,619.9

 

% Margin

 

24.8

%

26.0

%

25.4

%

26.6

%

29.2

%

33.2

%

36.0

%

38.4

%

37.8

%

38.0

%

Depreciation

 

119.8

 

129.8

 

136.6

 

167.1

 

174.5

 

198.3

 

212.8

 

219.5

 

213.0

 

227.8

 

Amortization

 

30.2

 

29.5

 

27.8

 

25.8

 

12.4

 

10.3

 

7.2

 

6.3

 

4.5

 

4.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Income

 

410.8

 

439.1

 

467.0

 

515.6

 

664.2

 

881.2

 

1,150.0

 

1,386.2

 

1,418.3

 

1,388.0

 

% Margin

 

18.2

%

19.1

%

18.8

%

19.4

%

22.8

%

26.8

%

30.3

%

33.0

%

32.7

%

32.6

%

% Growth

 

32.1

%

6.9

%

6.4

%

10.4

%

28.8

%

32.7

%

30.5

%

20.5

%

2.3

%

-2.1

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Other Income (Expense)

 

23.6

 

19.6

 

11.6

 

10.1

 

15.7

 

41.8

 

64.8

 

81.9

 

89.0

 

89.0

 

Minority Interest

 

(4.0

)

(3.0

)

(3.0

)

(3.0

)

(3.0

)

(3.0

)

(3.0

)

(3.0

)

(3.0

)

(3.0

)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pre-tax Income

 

430.3

 

455.7

 

475.6

 

522.7

 

676.9

 

920.0

 

1,211.8

 

1,465.1

 

1,504.3

 

1,474.0

 

% Margin

 

19.0

%

19.8

%

19.1

%

19.7

%

23.2

%

28.0

%

31.9

%

34.9

%

34.7

%

34.6

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income Tax Expense

 

(107.6

)

(113.9

)

(118.9

)

(130.7

)

(169.2

)

(230.0

)

(302.9

)

(366.3

)

(376.1

)

(368.5

)

Effective Tax Rate

 

25.0

%

25.0

%

25.0

%

25.0

%

25.0

%

25.0

%

25.0

%

25.0

%

25.0

%

25.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Income

 

329.3

 

341.8

 

356.7

 

392.0

 

507.7

 

690.0

 

908.8

 

1,098.8

 

1,128.2

 

1,105.5

 

Share Outstanding

 

202.7

 

204.0

 

204.8

 

205.7

 

207.5

 

208.9

 

209.9

 

210.9

 

211.9

 

212.9

 

EPS

 

$

1.62

 

$

1.68

 

$

1.74

 

$

1.91

 

$

2.45

 

$

3.30

 

$

4.33

 

$

5.21

 

$

5.32

 

$

5.19

 

 

Note: Heron consolidated income statement includes corporate royalties and expenses

Source: Heron Management Forecast as of March 2006.

 

14



BioPharma Segment P&L

 

BioPharma

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PROJECT HERON P&L

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

$MM

 

POS

 

2006

 

2007

 

2008

 

2009

 

2010

 

2011

 

2012

 

2013

 

2014

 

2015

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

REVENUE (Pos-Adj.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Proleukin

 

100

%

111.2

 

95.1

 

87.4

 

83.6

 

80.5

 

78.5

 

77.2

 

76.2

 

76.0

 

75.5

 

TOBI

 

100

%

246.2

 

239.5

 

175.7

 

137.0

 

96.2

 

83.3

 

80.9

 

79.0

 

77.6

 

76.6

 

Betaseron

 

100

%

152.6

 

182.9

 

180.9

 

187.2

 

177.0

 

177.5

 

165.5

 

113.3

 

86.0

 

68.4

 

TFPI

 

61

%

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

23.5

 

141.1

 

356.0

 

465.2

 

633.7

 

635.5

 

673.7

 

258

 

15

%

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

3.9

 

12.3

 

35.9

 

54.3

 

67.5

 

78.5

 

12.12

 

17

%

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

8.9

 

30.1

 

60.6

 

84.3

 

95.1

 

TIP

 

75

%

0.0

 

0.0

 

71.9

 

120.0

 

170.7

 

192.8

 

205.1

 

220.4

 

234.7

 

256.4

 

CSI

 

NA

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

Other Products

 

 

 

42.8

 

88.9

 

112.3

 

142.9

 

163.6

 

176.2

 

194.1

 

206.2

 

239.1

 

273.2

 

Net Product Sales

 

 

 

552.8

 

606.4

 

628.2

 

694.1

 

833.0

 

1,085.5

 

1,254.0

 

1,443.6

 

1,500.6

 

1,597.6

 

Joint Business

 

 

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

Collaborative Agreements

 

 

 

1.5

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

Royalties

 

 

 

79.0

 

35.0

 

37.9

 

39.4

 

35.0

 

26.4

 

26.6

 

26.8

 

22.5

 

22.6

 

Other Revenues

 

 

 

3.9

 

9.6

 

9.3

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

0.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL BioPharma REVENUE (Pos-Adj)

 

 

 

637.1

 

652.0

 

676.4

 

734.8

 

869.3

 

1,113.2

 

1,281.9

 

1,471.6

 

1,524.4

 

1,621.4

 

% Growth

 

 

 

-0.3

%

2.3

%

3.7

%

8.6

%

18.3

%

28.1

%

15.2

%

14.8

%

3.6

%

6.4

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL BioPharma COGS (Pos-Adj)

 

 

 

163.5

 

175.7

 

194.8

 

223.4

 

249.4

 

272.7

 

317.8

 

364.1

 

383.4

 

392.3

 

% Growth

 

 

 

3.4

%

7.4

%

10.9

%

14.7

%

11.7

%

9.3

%

16.5

%

14.6

%

5.3

%

2.3

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL BioPharma GROSS PROFIT (Pos-Adj.)

 

 

 

473.6

 

476.3

 

481.6

 

511.5

 

619.8

 

840.5

 

964.1

 

1,107.5

 

1,141.0

 

1,229.2

 

% Margin

 

 

 

74.3

%

73.1

%

71.2

%

69.6

%

71.3

%

75.5

%

75.2

%

75.3

%

74.8

%

75.8

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL BioPharma Research & Development (Pos-Adj

 

 

 

293.0

 

305.1

 

337.6

 

290.7

 

287.3

 

330.5

 

372.8

 

389.1

 

401.3

 

425.2

 

% Margin

 

 

 

46.0

%

46.8

%

49.9

%

39.6

%

33.0

%

29.7

%

29.1

%

26.4

%

26.3

%

26.2

%

% Growth

 

 

 

10.9

%

4.1

%

10.7

%

-13.9

%

-1.2

%

15.0

%

12.8

%

4.4

%

3.1

%

5.9

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL BioPharma S&M (Pos-Adj)

 

 

 

138.6

 

134.7

 

166.3

 

218.4

 

221.7

 

226.4

 

240.0

 

252.3

 

268.5

 

290.0

 

% Margin

 

 

 

21.7

%

20.7

%

24.6

%

29.7

%

25.5

%

20.3

%

18.7

%

17.1

%

17.6

%

17.9

%

% Growth

 

 

 

2.1

%

-2.8

%

23.4

%

31.4

%

1.5

%

2.1

%

6.0

%

5.1

%

6.4

%

8.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL BioPharma G&A (Pos-Adj)

 

 

 

23.7

 

32.3

 

36.1

 

38.0

 

45.0

 

55.6

 

63.0

 

73.4

 

76.4

 

80.6

 

% Margin

 

 

 

3.7

%

5.0

%

5.3

%

5.2

%

5.2

%

5.0

%

4.9

%

5.0

%

5.0

%

5.0

%

% Growth

 

 

 

-2.0

%

36.2

%

11.6

%

5.3

%

18.4

%

23.6

%

13.4

%

16.4

%

4.1

%

5.4

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Operating Expenses

 

 

 

2.8

 

13.3

 

8.5

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

0.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Biopharma Corporate Overhead Allocation

 

 

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL BioPharma OPERATING EXPENSES

 

 

 

458.1

 

485.4

 

548.4

 

547.3

 

554.2

 

612.7

 

676.1

 

715.1

 

746.4

 

796.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL BioPharma EXPENSES

 

 

 

621.6

 

661.1

 

743.2

 

770.7

 

803.7

 

885.5

 

993.9

 

1,079.2

 

1,129.8

 

1,188.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BioPharma OPERATING INCOME (LOSS)

 

 

 

15.5

 

(9.1

)

(66.8

)

(35.8

)

65.6

 

227.7

 

288.0

 

392.4

 

394.6

 

433.2

 

% Margin

 

 

 

2.4

%

NM

 

NM

 

NM

 

7.5

%

20.5

%

22.5

%

26.7

%

25.9

%

26.7

%

% Growth

 

 

 

-66.3

%

-158.3

%

637.4

%

-46.4

%

-283.1

%

247.0

%

26.5

%

36.2

%

0.6

%

9.8

%

 

Source: Heron Management Forecast as of March 2006

 

15



Vaccines Segment P&L

 

Vaccines

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PROJECT HERON P&L

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

$MM

 

POS

 

2006

 

2007

 

2008

 

2009

 

2010

 

2011

 

2012

 

2013

 

2014

 

2015

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

REVENUE (Pos-Adj.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Egg Flu

 

100

%

593.9

 

588.3

 

659.7

 

598.3

 

618.3

 

598.3

 

476.9

 

394.0

 

255.5

 

116.8

 

WW Flu Cell Culture

 

30% US / 75% EU

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

92.7

 

125.5

 

150.3

 

209.8

 

253.4

 

326.6

 

397.0

 

Men B NZ

 

100

%

0.0

 

2.4

 

2.4

 

2.4

 

2.4

 

2.4

 

2.4

 

2.4

 

2.4

 

2.4

 

Men B EU

 

25

%

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

31.9

 

100.4

 

81.4

 

6.6

 

Men B US

 

25

%

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

169.6

 

276.0

 

329.0

 

18.5

 

Men ABCWY

 

15

%

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

306.7

 

Men ACWY

 

50

%

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

25.0

 

104.0

 

160.0

 

165.0

 

177.5

 

92.5

 

Men ABCWY-HIB

 

NA

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

HCV Therapeutic

 

11

%

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

54.2

 

60.5

 

63.6

 

66.6

 

HCV Prophylactic

 

19

%

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

8.6

 

17.0

 

65.8

 

62.5

 

Other Products

 

 

 

348.5

 

390.1

 

415.3

 

429.8

 

442.1

 

416.6

 

413.0

 

412.5

 

415.1

 

420.2

 

Net Product Sales

 

 

 

942.4

 

980.8

 

1,077.4

 

1,123.1

 

1,213.3

 

1,271.7

 

1,526.4

 

1,681.2

 

1,717.0

 

1,489.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Collaborative Agreements

 

 

 

8.5

 

1.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

Royalties

 

 

 

2.9

 

3.4

 

2.9

 

1.4

 

1.4

 

1.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

Other Revenue

 

 

 

5.2

 

13.1

 

14.1

 

13.9

 

16.4

 

20.8

 

20.8

 

25.8

 

25.8

 

30.2

 

Other Revenues

 

 

 

16.6

 

17.5

 

17.0

 

15.2

 

17.7

 

21.8

 

20.8

 

25.8

 

25.8

 

30.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL VACCINES REVENUE (Pos-Adj)

 

 

 

959.0

 

998.3

 

1,094.4

 

1,138.4

 

1,231.0

 

1,293.4

 

1,547.2

 

1,707.0

 

1,742.7

 

1,519.9

 

% Growth

 

 

 

40.9

%

4.1

%

9.6

%

4.0

%

8.1

%

5.1

%

19.6

%

10.3

%

2.1

%

-12.8

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL VACCINES COGS (Pos-Adj)

 

 

 

450.2

 

450.8

 

467.4

 

536.8

 

551.9

 

558.1

 

586.6

 

602.7

 

615.4

 

508.2

 

% Margin

 

 

 

46.9

%

45.2

%

42.7

%

47.2

%

44.8

%

43.2

%

37.9

%

35.3

%

35.3

%

33.4

%

% Growth

 

 

 

17.3

%

0.1

%

3.7

%

14.8

%

2.8

%

1.1

%

5.1

%

2.7

%

2.1

%

-17.4

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL VACCINES GROSS PROFIT (Pos-Adj.)

 

 

 

508.8

 

547.5

 

627.0

 

601.6

 

679.1

 

735.3

 

960.6

 

1,104.3

 

1,127.3

 

1,011.7

 

% Margin

 

 

 

53.1

%

54.8

%

57.3

%

52.8

%

55.2

%

56.8

%

62.1

%

64.7

%

64.7

%

66.6

%

TOTAL VACCINES Research & Development (Pos-Adj)

 

 

 

177.7

 

155.6

 

169.6

 

175.9

 

170.8

 

167.8

 

174.4

 

165.1

 

154.4

 

139.2

 

R&D as% of Total Revenue

 

 

 

18.5

%

15.6

%

15.5

%

15.5

%

13.9

%

13.0

%

11.3

%

9.7

%

8.9

%

9.2

%

% Growth

 

 

 

30.5

%

-12.4

%

9.0

%

3.7

%

-2.9

%

-1.7

%

3.9

%

-5.4

%

-6.4

%

-9.9

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL VACCINES S&M (Pos-Adj)

 

 

 

118.4

 

114.7

 

133.6

 

124.2

 

123.4

 

143.1

 

155.3

 

171.0

 

174.7

 

151.6

 

S&M as% of Product Sales

 

 

 

12.6

%

11.7

%

12.4

%

11.1

%

10.2

%

11.3

%

10.2

%

10.2

%

10.2

%

10.2

%

% Growth

 

 

 

11.9

%

-3.2

%

16.5

%

-7.0

%

-0.6

%

15.9

%

8.5

%

10.1

%

2.1

%

-13.2

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL VACCINES G&A (Pos-Adj)

 

 

 

48.4

 

53.7

 

56.3

 

54.4

 

53.9

 

54.8

 

82.5

 

94.9

 

100.8

 

97.6

 

G&A as% Total Revenue

 

 

 

5.1

%

5.4

%

5.1

%

4.8

%

4.4

%

4.2

%

5.3

%

5.6

%

5.8

%

6.4

%

% Growth

 

 

 

-4.5

%

10.8

%

4.9

%

-3.4

%

-0.9

%

1.6

%

50.6

%

15.0

%

6.2

%

-3.2

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Operating Expenses

 

 

 

(0.3

)

0.2

 

0.1

 

0.1

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vaccines Corporate Overhead Allocation

 

 

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL VACCINES OPERATING EXPENSES

 

 

 

344.3

 

324.2

 

359.6

 

354.6

 

348.1

 

365.7

 

412.3

 

431.0

 

429.9

 

388.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL VACCINES EXPENSES

 

 

 

794.6

 

774.9

 

827.0

 

891.4

 

900.1

 

923.9

 

998.9

 

1,033.7

 

1,045.3

 

896.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

VACCINES OPERATING INCOME (LOSS)

 

 

 

164.4

 

223.3

 

267.4

 

247.0

 

330.9

 

369.6

 

548.3

 

673.3

 

697.4

 

623.3

 

% Margin

 

 

 

17.1

%

22.4

%

24.4

%

21.7

%

26.9

%

28.6

%

35.4

%

39.4

%

40.0

%

41.0

%

% Growth

 

 

 

 

 

35.8

%

19.7

%

-7.6

%

34.0

%

11.7

%

48.4

%

22.8

%

3.6

%

-10.6

%

 

Source: Heron Management Forecast as of March 2006

 

16



Blood Testing Segment P&L

 

BLOOD TESTING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PROJECT HERON P&L

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

$MM

 

POS

 

2006

 

2007

 

2008

 

2009

 

2010

 

2011

 

2012

 

2013

 

2014

 

2015

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

REVENUE (Pos-Adj.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NAT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Products

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Duplex

 

100

%

66.9

 

18.0

 

20.5

 

20.5

 

20.5

 

18.5

 

16.5

 

14.5

 

12.6

 

10.6

 

dHBV

 

100

%

1.3

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

Ultrio

 

100

%

171.8

 

265.1

 

304.6

 

327.1

 

315.3

 

286.3

 

250.9

 

216.8

 

184.3

 

152.4

 

WNV

 

100

%

43.3

 

57.6

 

57.6

 

57.6

 

53.7

 

48.0

 

42.2

 

36.5

 

30.8

 

25.1

 

Total Current Products Revenue

 

 

 

283.3

 

340.6

 

382.6

 

405.2

 

389.4

 

352.8

 

309.6

 

267.9

 

227.7

 

188.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New Products

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Blood Type Conversion

 

35

%

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

12.7

 

33.2

 

61.9

 

85.7

 

99.4

 

111.9

 

Bacterial Detection

 

NA

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

Parvo

 

75

%

0.0

 

0.3

 

3.0

 

13.2

 

11.8

 

10.5

 

9.1

 

7.7

 

6.4

 

5.1

 

Prion

 

50

%

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

37.7

 

68.8

 

74.1

 

83.7

 

90.5

 

89.4

 

90.6

 

Next Generation NAT

 

100

%

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

74.1

 

153.2

 

253.2

 

308.8

 

381.9

 

465.0

 

Total New Products Revenue

 

 

 

0.0

 

0.3

 

3.0

 

50.9

 

167.4

 

271.0

 

407.8

 

492.7

 

577.0

 

672.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Instrument & Service Revenue

 

 

 

28.2

 

16.3

 

19.7

 

13.8

 

9.4

 

8.3

 

7.7

 

6.8

 

6.0

 

4.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Plasma Sales

 

 

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total NAT Product Revenue

 

 

 

311.5

 

357.3

 

405.4

 

469.9

 

566.2

 

632.0

 

725.1

 

767.4

 

810.7

 

865.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plasma Royalties (Homebrew)

 

 

 

11.0

 

11.0

 

18.8

 

8.3

 

6.6

 

6.0

 

6.0

 

6.0

 

6.0

 

6.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Whole Blood and Plasma Royalties (Roche)

 

 

 

54.4

 

50.2

 

46.0

 

56.8

 

18.8

 

18.8

 

18.9

 

18.9

 

19.0

 

19.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total NAT Royalty Revenue

 

 

 

65.4

 

61.1

 

64.8

 

65.1

 

25.4

 

24.8

 

24.9

 

24.9

 

25.0

 

25.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Grants for R&D (Other)

 

 

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

1.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL NAT REVENUE

 

 

 

377.9

 

419.4

 

471.2

 

536.0

 

592.7

 

657.9

 

751.0

 

793.4

 

836.7

 

891.2

 

% Growth

 

 

 

-8.9

%

11.0

%

12.4

%

13.7

%

10.6

%

11.0

%

14.2

%

5.6

%

5.5

%

6.5

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ORTHO JOINT BUSINESS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Product Sales

 

 

 

26.3

 

26.5

 

26.8

 

27.1

 

27.3

 

27.6

 

27.9

 

28.2

 

28.4

 

28.7

 

Hep Retro Amortization (Royalty)

 

 

 

5.0

 

5.0

 

5.0

 

5.0

 

2.5

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

Contract Revenues

 

 

 

10.1

 

10.2

 

10.3

 

10.4

 

10.5

 

10.6

 

10.7

 

10.8

 

10.9

 

11.0

 

Joint Business Profits

 

 

 

109.8

 

107.6

 

105.4

 

103.3

 

101.2

 

99.2

 

97.2

 

95.3

 

93.4

 

91.5

 

TOTAL ORTHO REVENUE

 

 

 

151.2

 

149.3

 

147.5

 

145.8

 

141.6

 

137.4

 

135.8

 

134.3

 

132.8

 

131.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL BLOOD TESTING REVENUE

 

 

 

574.4

 

568.7

 

618.8

 

681.8

 

734.2

 

795.3

 

886.9

 

927.7

 

969.4

 

1,022.4

 

% Growth

 

 

 

5.7

%

-1.0

%

8.8

%

10.2

%

7.7

%

8.3

%

11.5

%

4.6

%

4.5

%

5.5

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL BLOOD TESTING COGS

 

 

 

210.0

 

211.6

 

232.7

 

252.0

 

298.0

 

332.7

 

384.4

 

411.1

 

438.9

 

472.7

 

% Growth

 

 

 

15.7

%

0.8

%

10.0

%

8.3

%

18.2

%

11.6

%

15.6

%

6.9

%

6.7

%

7.7

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL BLOOD TESTING GROSS PROFIT (Pos-Adj.)

 

 

 

364.5

 

357.1

 

386.1

 

429.8

 

436.3

 

462.6

 

502.4

 

516.5

 

530.6

 

549.8

 

% Margin

 

 

 

63.4

%

62.8

%

62.4

%

63.0

%

59.4

%

58.2

%

56.7

%

55.7

%

54.7

%

53.8

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL BLOOD TESTING R&D

 

 

 

33.1

 

42.2

 

34.8

 

34.1

 

44.4

 

47.3

 

52.1

 

54.2

 

56.5

 

58.3

 

% Margin

 

 

 

5.8

%

7.4

%

5.6

%

5.0

%

6.1

%

6.0

%

5.9

%

5.8

%

5.8

%

5.7

%

% Growth

 

 

 

5.7

%

27.4

%

-17.4

%

-2.0

%

30.2

%

6.5

%

10.1

%

4.0

%

4.2

%

3.2

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL BLOOD TESTING S&M

 

 

 

47.1

 

47.3

 

50.3

 

56.6

 

58.8

 

62.4

 

65.9

 

70.0

 

74.7

 

79.1

 

% Margin

 

 

 

8.2

%

8.3

%

8.1

%

8.3

%

8.0

%

7.8

%

7.4

%

7.5

%

7.7

%

7.7

%

% Growth

 

 

 

11.6

%

0.4

%

6.4

%

12.3

%

3.9

%

6.1

%

5.7

%

6.2

%

6.7

%

5.9

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL BLOOD TESTING G&A

 

 

 

6.2

 

5.2

 

5.4

 

5.7

 

6.0

 

6.3

 

6.6

 

7.0

 

7.3

 

7.7

 

% Margin

 

 

 

1.1

%

0.9

%

0.9

%

0.8

%

0.8

%

0.8

%

0.7

%

0.7

%

0.8

%

0.8

%

% Growth

 

 

 

11.4

%

-16.0

%

5.0

%

5.0

%

5.0

%

5.0

%

5.0

%

5.0

%

5.0

%

5.0

%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Expenses

 

 

 

1.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Blood Testing Corporate Overhead Allocation

 

 

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

0.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES

 

 

 

87.7

 

94.7

 

90.6

 

96.4

 

109.2

 

116.0

 

124.6

 

131.2

 

138.5

 

145.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL EXPENSES

 

 

 

297.6

 

306.3

 

323.3

 

348.4

 

407.2

 

448.7

 

509.1

 

542.3

 

577.4

 

617.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BLOOD TESTING OPERATING INCOME (LOSS)

 

 

 

276.8

 

262.4

 

295.4

 

333.4

 

327.1

 

346.6

 

377.8

 

385.4

 

392.1

 

404.7

 

% Margin

 

 

 

48.2

%

46.1

%

47.7

%

48.9

%

44.5

%

43.6

%

42.6

%

41.5

%

40.4

%

39.6

%

% Growth

 

 

 

-1.6

%

-5.2

%

12.6

%

12.8

%

-1.9

%

6.0

%

9.0

%

2.0

%

1.7

%

3.2

%

 

Source: Heron Management Forecast as of March 2006

 

17



Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley do not provide any tax advice. Any tax statement herein regarding any US federal tax is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, by any taxpayer for the purpose of avoiding any penalties. Any such statement herein was written to support the marketing or promotion of the transaction(s) or matter(s) to which the statement relates. Each taxpayer should seek advice based on the taxpayer’s particular circumstances from an independent tax advisor.

 

These materials have been provided to you by Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley in connection with an actual or potential mandate or engagement and may not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than as specifically contemplated by a written agreement with Credit Suisse or Morgan Stanley. In addition, these materials may not be disclosed, in whole or in part, or summarized or otherwise referred to except as agreed in writing by Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley. The information used in preparing these materials was obtained from or through you or your representatives or from public sources. Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley assume no responsibility for independent verification of such information and have relied on such information being complete and accurate in all material respects. To the extent such information includes estimates and forecasts of future financial performance (including estimates of potential cost savings and synergies) prepared by or reviewed or discussed with the managements of your company and/or other potential transaction participants or obtained from public sources, we have assumed that such estimates and forecasts have been reasonably prepared on bases reflecting the best currently available estimates and judgments of such managements (or, with respect to estimates and forecasts obtained from public sources, represent reasonable estimates). These materials were designed for use by specific persons familiar with the business and the affairs of your company and Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley assume no obligation to update or otherwise revise these materials. Nothing contained herein should be construed as tax, accounting or legal advice. You (and each of your employees, representatives or other agents) may disclose to any and all persons, without limitation of any kind, the tax treatment and tax structure of the transactions contemplated by these materials and all materials of any kind (including opinions or other tax analyses) that are provided to you relating to such tax treatment and structure. For this purpose, the tax treatment of a transaction is the purported or claimed U.S. federal income tax treatment of the transaction and the tax structure of a transaction is any fact that may be relevant to understanding the purported or claimed U.S. federal income tax treatment of the transaction.

 

Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley have adopted policies and guidelines designed to preserve the independence of its research analysts. Credit Suisse’s and Morgan Stanley’s policies prohibit employees from directly or indirectly offering a favorable research rating or specific price target, or offering to change a research rating or price target, as consideration for or an inducement to obtain business or other compensation. Credit Suisse’s and Morgan Stanley’s policies prohibit research analysts from being compensated for their involvement in investment banking transactions.

 

18