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Note 1. Organization, Consolidation, Basis of Presentation and Accounting Policies: Unpaid Policy Claims and Claims Adjustment Expense, Policy (Policies)
12 Months Ended
Dec. 31, 2015
Policies  
Unpaid Policy Claims and Claims Adjustment Expense, Policy

All of the Company’s short-duration contracts are generated from its accident, health, disability and pet insurance business, and are accounted for based on actuarial estimates of the amount of loss inherent in that period’s claims, including losses incurred for which claims have not been reported. Short-duration contract loss estimates rely on actuarial observations of ultimate loss experience for similar historical events.

 

Medical Stop-Loss

 

Liabilities for policy benefits and claims on medical stop-loss coverage are computed using completion factors and expected Net Loss Ratios derived from actual historical premium and claim data. Policy benefits and claims for medical stop-loss insurance are more volatile in nature than those for fully insured medical insurance.  This is primarily due to the excess nature of medical stop-loss, with very high deductibles applying to specific claims on any individual claimant and in the aggregate for a given group.  The level of these deductibles makes it more difficult to predict the amount and payment pattern of such claims.  Furthermore, these excess claims are highly sensitive to changes in factors such as medical trend, provider contracts and medical treatment protocols, adding to the difficulty in predicting claim values and estimating reserves.  Also, because medical stop-loss is in excess of an underlying benefit plan, there is an additional layer of claim reporting and processing that can affect claim payment patterns.  Finally, changes in the distribution of business by effective month can affect reserve estimates due to the timing of claim occurrences and the time required to accumulate claims against the stop-loss deductible.

 

The two “primary” or “key” assumptions underlying the calculation of policy benefits and claims for Medical Stop-Loss business are (i) projected Net Loss Ratio, and (ii) claim development patterns.  The projected Net Loss Ratio is set at expected levels consistent with the underlying assumptions (“Projected Net Loss Ratio”). Claim development patterns are set quarterly as reserve estimates are developed and are based on recent claim development history (“Claim Development Patterns”).  The Company uses the Projected Net Loss Ratio to establish reserves until developing losses provide a better indication of ultimate results and it is feasible to set reserves based on Claim Development Patterns. The Company has concluded that a reasonably likely change in the Projected Net Loss Ratio assumption could have a material effect on the Company’s financial condition, results of operations, or liquidity (“Material Effect”) but a reasonably likely change in the Claim Development Pattern would not have a Material Effect. 

 

Projected Net Loss Ratio

 

Generally, during the first twelve months of an underwriting year, policy benefits for Medical Stop-Loss are first set at the Projected Net Loss Ratio, which is set using assumptions developed using completed prior experience trended forward. The Projected Net Loss Ratio is the Company’s best estimate of future performance until such time as developing losses provide a better indication of ultimate results.

 

Major factors that affect the Projected Net Loss Ratio assumption in reserving for Medical Stop-Loss relate to: (i) frequency and severity of claims; (ii) changes in medical trend resulting from the influences of underlying cost inflation, changes in utilization and demand for medical services, the impact of new medical technology and changes in medical treatment protocols; and (iii) the adherence to the Company’s underwriting guidelines.    

 

Claim Development Patterns

 

Subsequent to the first twelve months of an underwriting year, the Company’s developing losses provide a better indication of ultimate losses. At this point, claims have developed to a level where Claim Development Patterns can be applied to generate reasonably reliable estimates of ultimate claim levels.  Development factors based on historical patterns are applied to paid and reported claims to estimate fully developed claims. Claim Development Patterns are reviewed quarterly as reserve estimates are developed and are based on recent claim development history. The Company must determine whether changes in development represent true indications of emerging experience or are simply due to random claim fluctuations.

 

The Company also establishes its best estimates of claim development factors to be applied to more developed treaty year experience.  While these factors are based on historical Claim Development Patterns, actual claim development may vary from these estimates.

 

Predicting ultimate claims and estimating reserves in Medical Stop-Loss is more complex than fully insured medical and disability business due to the “excess of loss” nature of these products with very high deductibles applying to specific claims on any individual claimant and in the aggregate for a given group.  The level of these deductibles makes it more difficult to predict the amount and payment pattern of such claims.  Fluctuations in results for specific coverage are primarily due to the severity and frequency of individual claims, whereas fluctuations in aggregate coverage are largely attributable to frequency of underlying claims rather than severity. Liabilities for first dollar medical reserves and disability coverages are computed using completion factors and expected Net Loss Ratios derived from actual historical premium and claim data.

 

Due to the short-term nature of Medical Stop-Loss, redundancies or deficiencies will typically emerge during the course of the following year rather than over a number of years.  For Employer Stop-Loss, as noted above, the Company maintains its reserves based on underlying assumptions until it determines that an adjustment is appropriate based on emerging experience from all of its MGUs for prior underwriting years. 

Fully Insured Health

 

Policy benefits and claims for Fully Insured Health business are established to provide for the liability for incurred but not paid claims.  Policy benefits and claims are calculated using standard actuarial methods and practices. The “primary” assumption in the determination of Fully Insured Health reserves is that historical Claim Development Patterns are representative of future Claim Development Patterns. Factors which may affect this assumption include changes in claim payment processing times and procedures, changes in time delay in submission of claims, and the incidence of unusually large claims. Liabilities for policy benefits and claims for fully insured medical and disability coverage are computed using completion factors and expected Net Loss Ratios derived from actual historical premium and claim data.  The reserving analysis includes a review of claim processing statistical measures and large claim early notifications; the potential impacts of any changes in these factors are not material. The delay in submission of claims tends to be stable over time and not subject to significant volatility.

 

While these calculations are based on standard methodologies, they are estimates based on historical patterns.  To the extent that actual claim payment patterns differ from historical patterns, such estimated reserves may be redundant or inadequate.  The effects of such deviations are evaluated by considering claim backlog statistics and reviewing the reasonableness of projected claim ratios.  Other factors which may affect the accuracy of policy benefits and claim estimates include the proportion of large claims which may take longer to adjudicate, changes in billing patterns by providers and changes in claim management practices such as hospital bill audits.

 

Long Term Disability

 

Policy benefits and claims for the Company’s long term disability products are developed using actuarial principles and assumptions that consider, among other things, future offsets and recoveries, elimination periods, interest rates, probability of rehabilitation or mortality, incidence and termination rates based on the Company’s experience.  The liability for policy benefits and claims is made up of case reserves, incurred but not reported reserves, reopen reserves, and loss adjustment expense.  Incurred but not reported and reopen reserves are calculated by a hind-sight study, which takes historical experience and develops the reserve as a percentage of premiums from prior years. 

 

The two “primary” assumptions on which long term disability reserves are based are: (i) morbidity levels; and (ii) recovery rates. If morbidity levels increase, for example due to an epidemic or a recessionary environment, the Company would increase reserves because there would be more new claims than expected.  In regard to the assumed recovery rate, if disabled lives recover more quickly than anticipated then the existing claims reserves would be reduced; if less quickly, the existing claims reserves would be increased.

 

Management believes that the Company's methods of estimating the liabilities for policy benefits and claims provided appropriate levels of reserves at December 31, 2015 and 2014. Changes in the Company's policy benefits and claims estimates are generally recorded through a charge or credit to its earnings.