EX-99.(C)-2 4 d457324dex99c2.htm DISCUSSION MATERIALS PREPARED BY EVERCORE GROUP, L.L.C. Discussion materials prepared by Evercore Group, L.L.C.

Exhibit (c)-2

LOGO

 

The Special Committee of the Board of Directors of McMoRan Exploration Co. Preliminary Discussion Materials November 9, 2012

EVERCORE PARTNERS


LOGO

 

These materials have been prepared by Evercore Group L.L.C. (“Evercore”) for the Special Committee of the Board of Directors of McMoRan Exploration Co. (the “Special Committee” or the “Company”) to whom such materials are directly addressed and delivered and may not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than as specifically contemplated by a written agreement with Evercore. These materials are based on information provided by or on behalf of the Company, from public sources or otherwise reviewed by Evercore. Evercore assumes no responsibility for independent investigation or verification of such information and has relied on such information being complete and accurate in all material respects. To the extent such information includes estimates and forecasts of future financial performance prepared by or reviewed with the management of the Company or obtained from public sources, Evercore has assumed that such estimates and forecasts have been reasonably prepared on bases reflecting the best currently available estimates and judgments of such management (or, with respect to estimates and forecasts obtained from public sources, represent reasonable estimates). No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of such information and nothing contained herein is, or shall be relied upon as, a representation, whether as to the past, the present or the future. These materials were designed for use by specific persons familiar with the business and affairs of the Company. These materials are not intended to provide the sole basis for evaluating, and should not be considered a recommendation with respect to, any transaction or other matter. These materials have been developed by and are proprietary to Evercore and were prepared exclusively for the benefit and internal use of the Company.

These materials were compiled on a confidential basis for use of the Company in evaluating the potential transaction described herein and not with a view to public disclosure or filing thereof under state or federal securities laws, and may not be reproduced, disseminated, quoted or referred to, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Evercore.

These materials do not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell or purchase any securities and are not a commitment by Evercore (or any affiliate) to provide or arrange any financing for any transaction or to purchase any security in connection therewith. Evercore assumes no obligation to update or otherwise revise these materials. These materials may not reflect information known to other professionals in other business areas of Evercore and its affiliates.

Evercore and its affiliates do not provide legal, accounting or tax advice. Accordingly, any statements contained herein as to tax matters were neither written nor intended by Evercore or its affiliates to be used and cannot be used by any taxpayer for the purpose of avoiding tax penalties that may be imposed on such taxpayer. Each person should seek legal, accounting and tax advice based on his, her or its particular circumstances from independent advisors regarding the impact of the transactions or matters described herein.

EVERCORE PARTNERS


LOGO

 

Table of Contents

Confidential

Introduction

McMoRan Situation Analysis Preliminary Financial Analysis Appendix

Section

I

II

III

EVERCORE PARTNERS


LOGO

 

I. Introduction

EVERCORE PARTNERS


LOGO

 

Introduction

Confidential

Situation Update

Evercore Group L.L.C. (“Evercore”) has been engaged by the Special Committee of the Board of Directors (the “Special Committee”) of McMoRan Exploration Co. (“McMoRan”, “MMR”, or the “Company”) to provide financial advisory services to the Special Committee in connection with the consideration of strategic alternatives available to the Company, including, among other things, a potential transaction or series of transactions involving Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (“Freeport” or “FCX”) or any of its affiliates

Freeport owns 500,000 shares of convertible perpetual preferred stock with an initial conversion price of $16.00 which would equate to 31,250,000 common shares upon conversion, or 16.2% of the voting shares

Plains Exploration & Production Company (“Plains E&P”) currently owns 31.5% of the voting shares of the Company

On November 1, 2012, Freeport made a proposal pursuant to which, if the parties were to proceed, Freeport would acquire the Company for $15.00 per share in cash (the “Proposed Transaction”)

EVERCORE PARTNERS

1

 


LOGO

 

Introduction

Confidential

Overview of Materials

Evercore is pleased to provide the materials herein to the Special Committee of McMoRan regarding the Proposed Transaction

The materials herein review the following:

An introduction, including an overview of McMoRan’s organizational structure and a review of Evercore’s evaluation process to date

A current situation analysis for McMoRan, including current market and capital structure information, Wall Street research estimates and commentary, a shareholder overview, financial projections for the Company as provided by McMoRan management and a review of the assumptions utilized by McMoRan management in deriving such financial projections

An analysis of the Proposed Transaction, including: (i) implied transaction metrics and (ii) an offer price premiums analysis

A preliminary valuation analysis of McMoRan

EVERCORE PARTNERS

2

 


LOGO

 

Introduction

Confidential

McMoRan Corporate Structure and Ownership

Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc.

(FCX)

(1)

Public Ownership

Plains Exploration & Production Company (1) (PXP)

Holds 500,000 shares of convertible perpetual preferred stock. Each preferred share is initially convertible into 62.5 shares of MMR common stock at an initial conversion price of $16.00 per share.

As of December 31, 2011, the convertible preferred shares would have equated to 31,250,000 common shares had they been converted, representing a 16.2% ownership of all MMR outstanding shares on December 31, 2011.

68.5% 31.5%

McMoRan Exploration Co. (MMR)

100% 100%

Freeport-McMoRan Energy LLC

McMoRan Oil & Gas LLC (MOXY)

100% 100% 100% 100%

Freeport Sulphur Company

Freeport Egyptian Sulphur Company Southern Bayou Holdings LLC

Southern Pearl Holdings LLC Tank Barge LLC

Freeport International, Inc.

Freeport Canadian Exploration Company K-Mc Venture I LLC

McMoRan International Inc.

33.33% 100% 99.5% 0.05%

Grande Ecaille Land Company, Inc.

Freeport Pipeline Company Freeport Rotterdam, Inc.

Freeport-McMoRan Development L.L.C

Freeport Azufre Limitada

(1) Applicable ownership percentage assumes Convertible Perpetual Preferred shares held by Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold Inc. have not yet been converted

EVERCORE PARTNERS

3


LOGO

 

Introduction

Confidential

Evercore Evaluation Process and Due Diligence

Evercore has been actively engaged in due diligence with MMR management since being retained by the Special Committee

Evercore attended three meetings with McMoRan’s technical team

An overview meeting on August 15, 2012 given by James Moffett and the McMoRan technical team to a group of advisors working for various companies involved in the contemplated transaction

Management presented their views on the overall geology of the ultra-deep shelf play and provided specifics on major discoveries and prospects

A technical discussion on September 13, 2012 with McMoRan’s technical team including a geophysical review and discussion of sizing parameters for the ultra-deep portfolio

Reviewed 3D seismic of each of the discoveries and prospects with the McMoRan technical team

An in-person meeting on October 15, 2012 with McMoRan’s technical team covering sizing and risking of ultra-deep prospects and discoveries

Evercore presented its view of geologic risk for each prospect and discovery and discussed those assumptions with McMoRan’s technical team

MMR is currently awaiting the flow-testing of the Davy Jones #1, the ultimate results of that production test will be a significant data point for the ultra-deep shelf play

EVERCORE PARTNERS

4


LOGO

 

Introduction

Confidential

Evercore Evaluation Process and Due Diligence (cont’d)

In connection with its review of the Proposed Transaction, Evercore has, among other things:

Reviewed certain publicly available financial and operating data relating to McMoRan that we deemed to be relevant, including publicly available research analyst estimates

Reviewed and discussed certain non-public financial and operating data and projects related to McMoRan furnished to us by management of the Company

Reviewed the Ryder Scott Company, L.P. (“Ryder Scott”) reserve report as of July 1, 2012 (the “Reserve Report”) regarding McMoRan’s proved and non-proved reserves located onshore in the Gulf Coast as well as offshore in the Gulf of Mexico Shelf

Reviewed McMoRan’s corporate operating model

Reviewed and discussed McMoRan’s management’s assumptions regarding the resource potential of the Company’s ultra-deep portfolio

Reviewed the reported prices and historical trading activity of the Company’s common stock

Compared the financial performance of the Company and its stock market trading multiples with those of certain other publicly-traded companies that were deemed relevant

Compared the financial performance of the Company and valuation multiples relating to the Proposed Transaction with those of certain other transactions that were deemed relevant

Performed such other analyses and examinations and considered such other factors that Evercore deemed appropriate

EVERCORE PARTNERS

5


LOGO

 

II. McMoRan Situation Analysis

EVERCORE PARTNERS


LOGO

 

McMoRan Situation Analysis

Confidential

Overview

($ in millions, except per share amounts)

Key Company Data & Implied Metrics

As of 11/08/12

Share Price $12.51

Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding(2) 164.4

Market Capitalization $2,056.1

Plus: 5.75% Convertible Perpetual Preferred Stock 700.0

Plus: 11.875% Senior Notes Due 2016 300.0

Plus: 4.00% Convertible Senior Notes Due 2017 200.0

Plus: 5.25% Convertible Notes Due 2013 67.8

Less: Cash (191.9)

Total Enterprise Value $3,132.0

Estimates and Implied Metrics

Data Metric

Price / Cash Flow Per Share

2012E $0.64 19.6x

2013E $0.59 21.2x

EV / EBITDAX

2012E $179.0 17.5x

2013E $169.5 18.5x

EV / Proved Reserves ($/Mcfe) 208.5 $15.02

EV / Production ($/Mcfed)

Current 133,809 $23,406

2012E 140,369 $22,313

2013E 148,635 $21,072

Net Debt + Pref. / Net Book Capitalization $2,674.4 40.2%

Net Debt + Pref. / 2012E EBITDAX $179.0 6.0x

Net Debt + Pref / Proved Reserves ($/Mcfe) 208.5 $5.16

Net Debt + Pref / Proved Developed Reserves ($/Mcfe) 170.6 $6.31

Two Year Price Performance (11/9/10—11/8/12)

200% 150% 100% 50% 0%

Share Price

Current Price $12.51 Max 18.74 Mean 13.93 Median 13.74 Min 7.99 Average Price

1 Week $12.48 1 Month 11.96 3 Months 12.35

6 Months 11.77 1 Year 12.25 2 Years 13.92

143%

89%

75%

11/9/10 4/4/11 8/28/11 1/21/12 6/15/12 11/8/12

(1)

McMoRan Exploration Co. Peer Group Natural Gas

Source: Public filings, FactSet, Equity Research

(1) Peer Group includes Cobalt, Energy XXI, EPL Oil & Gas, Stone Energy and W&T Offshore

(2) Includes conversion of 12.118 million 8.0% convertible perpetual preferred shares ($6.84 conversion price per share) into 1.8 million shares

EVERCORE PARTNERS

6


LOGO

 

McMoRan Situation Analysis

Confidential

Asset Overview

Asset Overview

MMR’s assets are composed of conventional Gulf

Coast onshore and Gulf of Mexico Shelf assets

(the “Conventional Assets”) and its Ultra-Deep shelf play (the “Ultra-Deep Assets”) MMR’s Conventional Assets comprise all current reserves and production

Proved Reserves: 208.5 Bcfe (10/1/12)

3P Reserves: 348.6 Bcfe (10/1/12)

2012 Q3 Production: 133.8 MMcfed MMR’s Ultra-Deep Assets consist of sub-salt discoveries and prospects located in the Gulf of Mexico Shelf below 25,000 feet

Unrisked Resource Potential: 123.2 Tcfe gross (57.3 Tcfe net)

Risked Resource Potential: 36.7 Tcfe gross (17.3 Tcfe net)

Ultra-Deep Discoveries (Pay Counts)

Davy Jones No. 1: 200’ Wilcox

Davy Jones No. 2: 120’ Wilcox Sands; 192’

Tuscaloosa Sands & Lower Cretaceous Carbonate

Blackbeard West No. 1: 168’ Miocene; 52’

Oligocene Sand

Blackbeard East: 178’ Miocene First Frio Sand; 300’ Sparta Carbonate Lafitte: 171’ Miocene; 40’ in Frio; 65’ U. Eocene; 300’ Sparta Carbonate

Areas of Operation

Davy Jones Field

#1: Workover in progress to flow test Wilcox Sands

#2: Expect to commence completion following review of results from #1 well

Highlander

Onshore south Louisiana

68,000+ gross acre area

Expected to spud in 2H12

PTD: 30,000 ft

Targeting Eocene, Paleocene and Cretaceous Objectives

MMR WI: 72%

Lineham Creek

Onshore Cameron Parish, LA

Large Area of Potential Closure

Drilling Below 20,900 ft; PTD 29,000 ft

Chevron WI: 50% (Operator)

MMR WI: 36%

55 miles away

Blackbeard West #2

WI: 69.4%

NRI: 53.1%

Drilling below 21,400 feet; PTD: 24,500 ft

Lafitte

Expect to submit development plans with BSEE in 3Q 2012

Blackbeard East

Submitting initial development plans with BSEE

Plan to complete/test Upper Miocene Sands during 2013 with conventional equipment

Continue to evaluate development of deeper zones

Resource Base (17.6 Tcfe) Reserve Base (3P 348.6 Bcfe)

Ultra-Deep Risked Resource Potential 98.0%

Proved, Probable, 1.2% 0.4% Possible, 0.4%

Oil NGL Gas Equiv. PV-10

Reserves (Mbbl) (Mbbl) (MMcf ) (MMcf e) ($MM)

PDP 3,518 534 25,657 49,969 $95.1

PDBP 6,572 1,734 70,788 120,623 $482.2

PDSI 0 — 5 6 ($3.8)

PUD 977 658 28,095 37,906 $58.9

Total Proved 11,067 2,927 124,545 208,504 $632.4

Probable 2,652 935 47,485 69,006 $202.3

Total 2P 13,719 avb

3,861 172,030 277,510 $834.7

Possible 1,430 1,362 54,316 71,065 $189.4

Total 3P 15,148 5,223 226,346 348,575 $1,024.1

EVERCORE PARTNERS

7


LOGO

 

McMoRan Situation Analysis

Confidential

$24.00 $22.00 $20.00 $18.00 $16.00 $14.00 $12.00 $10.00 $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 $—

Share Price

11/15/11: Announced additional hydrocarbons in the Lafitte ultra-deep exploration well

1/17/12: Announced 2011 year-end results

3/26/12: Announced flare at Davy Jones No. 1, however flow rates were not determinable

6/22/12: Announced that the Company was the apparent high bidder on 14 lease blocks in GOM Shelf

7/30/12: Announced updated activity at Davy Jones No. 1, which included the delay of planned flow test

1/31/12: Exploration and Development Update

4/17/12: Announced first-quarter 2012 results

8/15/12: Commenced offer to exchange 5  1/4% convertible senior notes due 2012

3/7/12: Letter to shareholders

9/13/12: Completes exchange offer

7/17/12: Announced

2Q 2012 Results

9/4/12: Announced operations update

4/19/12: Announced Davy Jones update

10/19/12: Announced third-quarter 2012 results

30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0

Volume s(Thou ands)

11/9/11 12/19/11 1/29/12 3/9/12 4/19/12 5/29/12 7/9/12 8/18/12 9/28/12 11/7/12

Volume Price

EVERCORE PARTNERS

8

 


LOGO

 

McMoRan Situation Analysis

Confidential

Research Analyst Recommendations and Price Targets

Summary Price Targets

12-Month Discounted

Firm Name Analyst Recommendation Date Price Target Price Target(1)

Jefferies Biju Z Perincheril hold 11/5/2012 $12.00 $10.58

JPMorgan Joseph D Allman underweight 10/31/2012 — —

Guggenheim Securities LLC Robert Cordray buy 10/31/2012 20.00 17.64

Ladenburg Thalmann & Co Noel A Parks buy 10/22/2012 21.00 18.52

Capital One Southcoast, Inc. Richard Tullis add 10/22/2012 15.00 13.23

RBC Capital Markets Leo P Mariani outperform 10/19/2012 14.00 12.35

Howard Weil Inc Joseph Bachmann market perform 10/19/2012 15.00 13.23

Susquehanna Financial Group Duane Grubert positive 10/19/2012 18.00 15.87

Dahlman Rose & Co Nicholas P Pope buy 10/11/2012 15.00 13.23

Iberia Capital Partners LLC Patrick Rigamer sector perform 7/19/2012 15.00 13.23

EVA Dimensions Team Coverage sell 7/18/2012 — —

Analyst Recommendations

Sell 18%

Buy Hold 55% 27%

Premium/(Discount) Price Target to Market Max $21.00 67.9% Min 12.00 (4.1%) Median 15.00 19.9% Average 16.11 28.8%

(1) Analyst 12-month price target discounted back to present value at McMoRan’s equity cost of capital of 13.4% to estimate a current share price target

EVERCORE PARTNERS

9


LOGO

 

McMoRan Situation Analysis

Confidential

Research Analyst Commentary

“In our view, the company is at an inflection point due to its exploration success in the Ultra Deep shelf of the U.S. Gulf Coast. This should drive value well beyond the current focus on Davy Jones #1. Realizing this value is the critical next step; we believe the company has created a portfolio with significant leverage along three key attributes: exploration optionality, improving well economics, and access to third-party (E&P company) capital. We believe little upside potential is priced into the stock today, as we estimate that current prices reflect approximately 18% of deep shelf potential in the MMR portfolio.”

Guggenheim, Robert Cordray, October 31, 2012

Target Price: $20.00

“The Davy Jones discovery and data from Lafitte and Blackbeard indicate significant potential for MMR’s Ultra-Deep play. Results from Davy Jones potentially indicate a multiple Tcfe structure with good quality sands. Logs at Lafitte and Blackbeard indicate that hydrocarbons are present. However, questions and risks remain Buy with the completion of and production from these and other Ultra-Deep wells. Positive results could cause the stock to outperform. Hold “

J.P. Morgan, Joseph Allman, October 31, 2012

Target Price: NA

“Davy Jones flow test could finally be around the corner, barring another unforeseen issue. The play may ultimately be productive, but our skepticism has more to do with its economic viability, considering the geological, technical, and financial risks involved, compared to an onshore shale asset.”

“MMR noted that it is engaged in discussions regarding financing of future activities, perhaps to address funding concerns from investors. We estimate the company will spend down its cash balance and necessitate new funds by early next year, yet another reason to be cautious about the stock.”

Jefferies, Biju Perincheril, October 19, 2012

Target Price: $12.00

“We value the company’s oil and gas assets utilizing a 12% pre-tax discount rate and flat commodity prices of $100.00 for WTI oil and $5.00 for Henry Hub natural gas, and we notably do not assign significant value to McMoRan’s other ultra-deep prospects. We rate McMoRan Outperform, Speculative Risk with a 12-month price target of $14.00. We base our price target on a 13% discount to our NAV estimate. We believe MMR should trade at a discount to NAV due to execution and reservoir risk in the ultra-deep shelf play. Our risk qualifier is Speculative owing to the Company’s very high exploration risk, the still-unproven productivity of ultra-deep finds, and regulatory and asset concentration risk in the Gulf of Mexico.” “MMR increased its 2012 CapEx guidance by 10% to $550 million, though this was still below our previous estimate of $600 million. MMR noted that it is engaged in discussions regarding financing of its future activities, with joint ventures being a solid option, and the Company has apparently had discussions with a number of potential domestic and international partners. A deal of some sort will need to happen soon, as we currently have MMR running out of liquidity in late 1Q13.”

RBC Capital Markets, Leo Mariani, October 19, 2012

Target Price: $14.00

EVERCORE PARTNERS

10


LOGO

 

McMoRan Situation Analysis

Confidential

Shareholder Overview

Shareholder Name # of Shares % of Total Investor Type Strategy Turnover Activist Threat

Institutional 4=High, 0=Low

Wells Fargo & Co. 10,187,716 6.3% Investment Adviser Aggressive Growth Low 0

Omega Advisors, Inc. 7,133,800 4.4% Hedge Fund Value Medium 3

BlackRock, Inc. 7,072,718 4.4% Mutual Fund Index Very Low 0

The Vanguard Group, Inc. 5,617,931 3.5% Mutual Fund Index Very Low 0

DAY ROBERT ADDISON 4,026,560 2.5% Hedge Fund Value High 0

Wilkinson O’Grady & Co., Inc. (New York) 3,700,162 2.3% Investment Adviser GARP Low 0

State Street Corp. 3,124,550 1.9% Mutual Fund Index Very Low 0

Lord, Abbett & Co. LLC 2,103,414 1.3% Mutual Fund Value Medium 0

Joley Corp. 1,614,000 1.0% Investment Adviser Value Low 0

Chilton Investment Co. LLC 1,569,571 1.0% Hedge Fund Growth Medium 0

Other 28,636,046 17.7%

Total Institutional 74,786,468 46.2%

Insiders # of Shares % of Total Fully Diluted

Plains Exploration & Production Co. 51,000,000 31.5% 51,000,000

James R. Moffett 4,968,206 3.1% 8,918,206

Gerald J. Ford 1,916,099 1.2% 1,949,849

Robert Addison Day 1,078,660 0.7% 1,112,410

B M Rankin Jr. 591,712 0.4% 614,587

Other 721,242 0.4% 4,557,689

Total Insider 60,275,919 37.2% 68,152,741

Retail 26,815,613 16.6%

Total Shares Outstanding (Basic) 161,878,000 100.0%

Float 101,602,081 62.8%

Short Interest (% of Basic) 13.5%

Investor Type

Other

1% Retail

16%

Insider

37% Investment Adviser

17%

Sovereign Wealth

Hedge Mutual Manager Broker Fund Fund

1%

2% Company Manager

13% 13%

Rate of Turnover

Index

Aggressive 19% Growth

16% Growth 6% Yield 4% Deep Value Value 26% 2%

GARP 27%

Note: “GARP” is Growth At a Reasonable Price

Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. holds 500,000 shares of convertible perpetual preferred stock with each share convertible into 62.5 shares of MMR common stock at initial conversion price of $16.00 per share

Source: FactSet

EVERCORE PARTNERS

11


LOGO

 

McMoRan Situation Analysis

Confidential

MMR Volume Traded – Last Twelve Months

LTM Volume Traded

Volume in Thousands

— 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000

256,709

209,721 37.5%

30.6%

110,009 74,801 16.1%

10.9% 33,524

4.9%

$7.00—$9.00 $9.00—$11.00 $11.00—$13.00 $13.00—$15.00 $15.00—Above

LTM Cumulative Volume Traded

800,000

700,000

ds 600,000 an Thous 500,000 in 400,000 300,000 Volume 200,000 100,000

684,765 651,241

100% 95.1%

394,532

57.6%

184,810 74,801

27.0%

10.9%

$7.00—$9.00 $9.00—$11.00 $11.00—$13.00 $13.00—$15.00 $15.00—Above

EVERCORE PARTNERS

12


LOGO

 

McMoRan Situation Analysis

Confidential

Summary Financial Projections – Assumptions

The following financial projections summarize McMoRan’s operating model (the “MMR Operating Model”) as provided by

McMoRan management

The projections incorporate all activity associated with the Conventional Assets

In addition, the projections incorporate the development of MMR’s Ultra-Deep Assets utilizing the following assumptions:

100% success rate on exploration wells (no dry hole costs)

Gross prospect size of 2 Tcfe

To develop a 2 Tcfe discovery requires 3 development wells drilled per year following an initial discovery well up to 10 total successful wells

200 Bcfe gross reserves per well (95% natural gas, 5% condensate)

Drilling cost per well of $100 million

Completion cost per well of $100 million

Facilities cost of $43 million per well

1 year drilling duration per well and 6 months to complete per well

Wells commence 18 months following spud date

NYMEX strip pricing as of November 1, 2012 through 2016E and held flat thereafter

Assumed 35% U.S. Federal corporate tax rate

EVERCORE PARTNERS

13


LOGO

 

McMoRan Situation Analysis

Confidential

Summary Financial Projections

($ in millions)

Summary Financial Projections

2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E

Production

Natural Gas (Bcf) 32.4 40.5 95.4 145.6 187.5 228.7 262.9 281.8

Oil (MMBbls) 2.1 2.0 2.2 3.0 3.1 2.7 3.1 3.0

Plant Products (Bcfe) 5.4 2.5 1.7 1.3 0.8 3.1 3.4 1.2

Total (Bcfe) 50.5 54.8 110.6 164.6 207.2 248.1 285.0 301.0

Daily (Bcfed) 138 150 303 451 568 680 781 825

Realized Prices

Natural Gas ($/Mcf) $3.56 $3.90 $4.22 $4.40 $4.60 $4.60 $4.60 $4.60

Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 87.37 88.71 88.50 85.36 85.36 85.36 85.36 85.36

Oil and Natural Gas Revenue $381 $352 $614 $902 $1,137 $1,306 $1,500 $1,560

LOE ($155) ($127) ($127) ($126) ($122) ($120) ($121) ($115)

G&A (51) (49) (49) (49) (49) (49) (49) (49)

Adjusted EBITDAX $175 $177 $438 $727 $966 $1,138 $1,330 $1,396

Less: Interest Expense ($2) ($15) ($26) ($32) ($24) ($12) ($37) ($36)

Less: Preferred Dividends (41) (41) (41) (41) (41) (41) (41) (41)

Less: Cash Taxes — — (1) (6) (68) (232) (316) (380)

Discretionary Cash Flow $132 $121 $370 $647 $833 $852 $935 $939

Capex ($550) ($500) ($749) ($551) ($489) ($493) ($443) ($437)

Free Cash Flow ($417) ($379) ($379) $96 $344 $360 $492 $501

EVERCORE PARTNERS

14


LOGO

 

III. Preliminary Financial Analysis

EVERCORE PARTNERS


LOGO

 

Preliminary Financial Analysis

Confidential

Summary of Proposed Transaction

($ in millions, except per share and unit amounts)

Proposed Transaction Metrics

Current Offer Price ($/share) $ 15.00

Fully-Diluted Shares Outstanding (MM) 165.3

Implied Equity Value $ 2,480

Plus: Current Net Debt + Prefs $ 1,076

Implied Enterprise Value $3,555

Company

I/B/E/S Multiple Estimates Multiple

EV/2012E EBITDAX $179.0 19.9x $175.4 20.3x

EV/2013E EBITDAX $169.5 21.0x $177.0 20.1x

Offer Price/2012E CFPS $0.64 23.5x $0.80 18.8x

Offer Price/2013E CFPS $0.59 25.4x $0.73 20.5x

EV/Proved Reserves 208.5 Bcfe $17.05 208.5 Bcfe $17.05

EV/3Q Production 133,809 Mcfed $26,571 133,809 Mcfed $26,571

EV/2013E Production 148,635 Mcfed $23,920 150,259 Mcfed $23,662

Offer Price Premium Analysis

Trading Days Period of Time 52-Week

Type of Average Current 1-Day 5-Day 10-Day 30-Day 90-Day 180-Day 1-Year 2-Year High Low

VWAP — $12.57 $12.44 $12.15 $11.83 $12.64 $11.37 $12.11 $13.64 — —

Implied Premium — 19.3% 20.6% 23.5% 26.8% 18.6% 32.0% 23.9% 10.0% — —

Simple Average $12.51 $12.51 $12.48 $12.06 $11.70 $12.61 $11.56 $12.26 $13.93 $16.57 $7.76

Implied Premium 19.9% 19.9% 20.2% 24.3% 28.2% 18.9% 29.8% 22.4% 7.7% (9.5%) 93.3%

EVERCORE PARTNERS

15


LOGO

 

Preliminary Financial Analysis

Valuation Methodologies

In analyzing the Proposed Transaction, Evercore utilized the following methodologies for its preliminary valuation of McMoRan:

Methodology Description Assumptions

Net Asset Valuation

(“NAV”) Analysis

Peer Group Trading Analysis

Precedent Transactions Analysis

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

Valuation based on the present value of the future after-tax cash flows expected to be generated from MMR’s proved and non-proved reserves and resources

Valuation based on public trading metrics of E&P companies with similar assets

Valuation based on metrics of transaction value to cash flow, proved reserves, and current production for M&A transactions involving acquisitions of similar assets and premiums paid in corporate transactions with all cash consideration in 2012 YTD

Valuation based on the net present valuation of MMR’s current projections of future after-tax free cash flows assuming selected discount rates and terminal value multiples

Cash flows based on the Reserve Report and the

Company’s resource estimates for its Ultra-Deep prospect portfolio

Proved reserves based on the Reserve Report Financial projections based on I/B/E/S estimates Reviewed trading multiples for selected GOM and onshore Gulf Coast companies Reviewed resource trading multiples for Cobalt

International Energy, Inc. (“Cobalt”)

Proved reserves based on the Reserve Report

Reviewed selected transactions that included assets in the Gulf of Mexico shelf and onshore Gulf Coast since 2009 with transaction value greater than $20 million

Valuation date as of October 1, 2012

Terminal value based on a 5.0x EBITDA exit multiple and an assumed 0.5% growth in perpetuity 35.0% federal tax Tax depreciation based on a full-step up in tax basis and 7-MACRS

EVERCORE PARTNERS

16


LOGO

 

Preliminary Financial Analysis

Confidential

Summary Valuation

$30.00 $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $0.00

-$5.00

-$10.00

$25.44

$19.76 $19.21 $20.33

Offer Price: $15.00 $16.55 $16.89

$15.05 $15.44 $15.64 $11.12 $10.25 $11.80

$9.98

$7.77 $7.55

$5.89

-$1.86

-$4.49

Peer Group Discounted Risked NAV Analysis Trading Analysis Precedent Transactions Cash Flow

NYMEX Strip (11/1/12) $75.00 Oil / $3.00 Gas $90.00 Oil / $4.00 Gas $105.00 Oil / $5.00 Gas Conventional: Precedent Asset Precendent—Corporate Takeover Premiums NYMEX Strip (11/1/12) 208.5 Bcfe Conventional: Conventional: 20.0%—40.0% 5.0x Exit Multiple

$2.50—$3.50 / Mcfe Gulf of Mexico Shelf 208.5 Bcfe 0.5% Perpetuity Growth Rate 148,635 Mcfed 183.8 Bcfe $8.00—$12.00 / Mcfe $6,000—$6,500 / Mcfed $2.50—$3.50 / Mcfe 138,809 Mcfed $170 MM EBITDAX 103,211 Mcfed $20,000—$25,000 / Mcfed

3.0x—3.8x $5,000—$7,000 / Mcfed $175 MM EBITDAX

14.5x—17.0x Ultra-Deep Gulf Coast Onshore $177 MM EBITDAX 17,260 Bcfe 24.7 Bcfe 12.0x—15.5x

$0.10—$0.18 / Mcfe $2.50—$3.75 / Mcfe 30,598 Mcfed $3,500—$5,000 / Mcfed

Ultra-Deep 17,260 Bcfe Various

EVERCORE PARTNERS

17


LOGO

 

Preliminary Financial Analysis

Confidential

Net Asset Value Analysis – Assumptions

Projections of proved, probable and possible production, operating costs, and capital expenditures based on the Reserve Report rolled forward to October 1, 2012 Volumes and risking for specific Ultra-Deep prospects and discoveries (as per MMR estimates)

Geologic and mechanical risking was estimated by Evercore and reviewed by MMR’s technical team

Utilized an expected value analysis based on the assumed geologic and mechanical risking

Each well has a 200 Bcfe EUR

Developed using a continuous four rig program through 2014, going to a six rig program in 2015 and finally an eight rig program by 2016, held constant thereafter

Production for each well of 70 MMcfed held flat for six years, then exponential decline (as per MMR estimates)

Condensate is 5% of well stream (8.8 bbl/MMcf)

Gross well costs of $243.0 million per well (as per MMR estimates)

$100.0 million and 1 year to drill

$100.0 million and 6 months to complete

$43.0 million to equip and tie-in

First production after 18 months

Operating costs are $150,000 per well per month plus $0.15 per Mcfe of transportation costs (as per MMR estimates) NYMEX strip pricing as of November 1, 2012 through 2016E and then held flat thereafter

Three sensitivity cases: $75.00/Bbl oil, $3.00/MMBtu gas; $90.00/Bbl oil, $4.00/MMBtu gas; $105.00/Bbl oil, $5.00/MMBtu gas held flat Effective date of October 1, 2012 G&A expense of $40.0 million per year plus an incremental $30 million of ultra-deep G&A beginning in 2014E

Insurance cost of $15.0 million per year plus an incremental insurance cost for the ultra-deep of 25% of ultra-deep lease operating expense Included sulphur reclamation expense at a PV-10 value of $18.6 million

EVERCORE PARTNERS

18


LOGO

 

Preliminary Financial Analysis

Confidential

Net Asset Value Analysis – Assumptions (cont’d)

Capital expenditures allocated 80% to intangible drilling costs (“IDCs”) and 20% to tangible drilling costs (“TDCs”)

IDCs are expensed as incurred and TDCs are depreciated using a 7-year MACRS schedule

Utilization of estimated U.S. Federal net operating loss carry forwards of $717.0 million as of December 31, 2012

U.S. Federal income tax rate of 35.0%

Escrow funding payments of $5.0 million per year through 2017 to support the funding requirements related to the 2007 oil and gas acquisition property reclamation obligations

Future capital shortfalls funded 50% with equity and 50% with debt at a 7.5% interest rate

Borrowing base of $150.0 million with none currently drawn and a $100.0 million letter of credit outstanding

A 250 bps spread to LIBOR and the LIBOR curve as of November 6, 2012 on amounts drawn

A 250 bps interest rate plus a 20 bps fronting fee on letters of credit

An unused commitment fee of 0.5% on any undrawn amounts

EVERCORE PARTNERS

19


LOGO

 

Preliminary Financial Analysis

Confidential

Reserve Report – Summary

Ryder Scott prepared an estimate of the proved, probable and possible reserves, future production and income attributable to MMR

The effective date of the Reserve Report is July 1, 2012 Evercore has mechanically rolled the Reserve Report forward to an effective date of October 1, 2012 and has updated the benchmark price deck to a NYMEX strip as of November 1, 2012 Evercore has also adjusted the Reserve Report for asset sales at West Delta, Mississippi Canyon and Eugene Island (sold 22.6 Bcfe of proved reserves)

Reserve Category Product Mix

PDP 14% Oil 26%

POSS PDBP 20% 35% Gas

65% NGL PUD 9% PROB

11% 20%

Operated Status Onshore vs. Offshore Operated Non-Op

Offshore Onshore 45% 55% 85% 15%

Ryder Scott Reserves (November 1, 2012 NYMEX Strip; Effective October 1, 2012)

Gulf of Mexico Shelf

Oil NGL Gas Equiv. PV-10

Reserve Category (Mbbl) (Mbbl) (MMcf ) (MMcf e) ($MM)

PDP 3,210 335 14,631 35,905 $54.5 PDBP 6,477 1,698 66,864 115,914 $467.9 PDSI 0 — 5 6 ($3.8)

PUD 834 658 23,058 32,008 $43.6 Total Proved Reserves 10,521 2,691 104,558 183,833 $562.3 Probable 2,330 917 34,365 53,850 $155.2

Total 2P Reserves 12,852 3,608 138,923 237,683 $717.4 Possible 1,299 1,352 41,359 57,263 $153.7

Total 3P Reserves 14,150 4,960 180,282 294,946 $871.2

Gulf Coast Onshore Oil NGL Gas Equiv. PV-10

Reserve Category (Mbbl) (Mbbl) (MMcf ) (MMcf e) ($MM)

PDP 307 199 11,025 14,063 $40.7 PDBP 95 36 3,924 4,710 $14.2

PDSI — — — — $0.0

PUD 143 — 5,038 5,898 $15.2 Total Proved Reserves 545 235 19,987 24,671 $70.1

Probable 322 18 13,120 15,156 $47.2 Total 2P Reserves 867 253 33,107 39,827 $117.3

Possible 131 10 12,957 13,802 $35.6 Total 3P Reserves 998 263 46,064 53,629 $152.9

Total Conventional Assets

Oil NGL Gas Equiv. PV-10

Reserve Category (Mbbl) (Mbbl) (MMcf ) (MMcf e) ($MM)

PDP 3,518 534 25,657 49,969 $95.1

PDBP 6,572 1,734 70,788 120,623 $482.2

PDSI 0 — 5 6 ($3.8)

PUD 977 658 28,095 37,906 $58.9

Total Proved Reserves 11,067 2,927 124,545 208,504 $632.4

Probable 2,652 935 47,485 69,006 $202.3

Total 2P Reserves 13,719 3,861 172,030 277,510 $834.7

Possible 1,430 1,362 54,316 71,065 $189.4

Total 3P Reserves 15,148 5,223 226,346 348,575 $1,024.1

EVERCORE PARTNERS

20


LOGO

 

Preliminary Financial Analysis

Confidential

Ryder Scott Reserve Report – Production and Capital Expenditure Profile

Production Profile

150.0 135.0 120.0 cfed) 105.0 MM 90.0

( 75.0 u ction 60.0 Prod 45.0 30.0 15.0 0

Proved Developed Producing Proved Developed Behind-Pipe Proved Undeveloped Probable Possible

2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E Rem.

Capital Expenditure Profile

$220.0 $200.0 $180.0 MM) $ $160.0 ( $140.0 $120.0 en $100.0 $80.0 $60.0 C $40.0 $20.0 -

Proved Developed Producing Proved Developed Behind-Pipe Proved Undeveloped Probable Possible Abandonment

$175.6

$66.3 $52.6 $48.3 $42.4 $37.9 $30.9 $18.7 $13.9

$8.4 $11.9 $12.1

$2.9 $0.0 $3.8

2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E Rem.

EVERCORE PARTNERS

21


LOGO

 

Preliminary Financial Analysis

Confidential

Ultra-Deep Assets – Overview of Geological Risk Factors

Petroleum System Element What it Means Comments Related to MMR Ultra Deep Portfolio

Source Material & Maturation Reservoir Trap & Seal Timing & Migration Reservoir Presence Reservoir Quality

Was there sufficient organic material available and was there sufficient thermal maturation of this material to create hydrocarbons in sufficient quantities to be expelled?

Are there lateral and vertical seals to prevent hydrocarbons from migrating away from or out of the reservoir?

Did petroleum migrate before Trap and Seal formed?

Was Trap or Seal later deformed causing it to fail?

Are there rocks of sufficient porosity to store commercial amounts of hydrocarbon?

If present, can the reservoir produce, and at commercial rates? What is reservoir permeability and what is the degree of heterogeneity in the reservoir?

The basin has significant source rocks which were thermally mature with significant hydrocarbon expulsion Existing wells show presence of hydrocarbons from the Miocene to the Lower Cretaceous Based on available data, this risk is not viewed to be significant Prospect inventory targets largely 4-way anticlinal primary structures clearly evident on seismic Significant seal capacity demonstrated in shales and salts by existing well control Proof on concept has lowered risk significantly, but risk is not eliminated

Primary anticlinal structures created in compressional system before migration reduce risk of timing failure

Confirmed for discoveries by wells drilled thus far discovered sands and carbonates in the Frio, Vicksburg, Jackson, Yegua, Sparta, Wilcox, Tuscaloosa and Lower Cretaceous Carbonate formations All five wells drilled to date have found what appears to be reservoir rock from LWD and wireline logs These potential pay zones are also present in and correlate to major onshore, deepwater GOM and international locations

This is the most significant area of uncertainty until a long term flow test is completed This is a significant source of dependant risk

EVERCORE PARTNERS

22


LOGO

 

Preliminary Financial Analysis

Confidential

Ultra-Deep Assets Overview

Risked Volume Potential for MMR’s Ultra-Deep Assets

Gross Unrisked Net Unrisked Geologic Mechanical Gross Risked Net Risked

Prospect Category WI NRI Resource Potential Resource Potential COS COS Resource Potential Resource Potential

% % Bcfe Bcfe % % Bcfe Bcfe

Offshore

Davy Jones Discovery 63.4% 50.2% 3,248 1,631 80.0% 90.0% 2,321 1,165

Blackbeard East Discovery 72.0% 57.4% 1,040 597 80.0% 90.0% 737 423

Lafitte Discovery 72.0% 58.3% 2,342 1,365 80.0% 90.0% 1,601 933

Blackbeard West Discovery 69.4% 53.1% 804 427 80.0% 90.0% 592 315

Offshore Discoveries Total 7,434 4,020 5,252 2,836

England Prospect 36.0% 28.8% 27,300 7,862 30.5% 90.0% 7,487 2,156

Barbosa Prospect 72.0% 57.6% 2,588 1,491 30.5% 90.0% 721 415

Morgan Prospect 72.0% 57.6% 1,000 576 30.5% 90.0% 281 162

Barataria Prospect 72.0% 57.6% 2,820 1,624 30.5% 90.0% 776 447

Blackbeard West #3 Prospect 69.4% 55.5% 498 276 30.5% 90.0% 288 160

Drake Prospect 72.0% 57.6% 14,580 8,398 28.9% 90.0% 3,765 2,169

Davy Jones West Prospect 36.0% 28.8% 1,400 403 30.5% 90.0% 391 113

Hurricane Prospect 72.0% 57.6% 1,575 907 30.5% 90.0% 446 257

Hook Prospect 72.0% 57.6% 4,890 2,817 28.9% 90.0% 1,257 724

Captain Blood Prospect 72.0% 57.6% 18,000 10,368 30.5% 90.0% 4,957 2,855

Bonnet Prospect 72.0% 57.6% 3,150 1,814 28.9% 90.0% 788 454

Queen Anne’s Revenge Prospect 72.0% 57.6% 1,296 746 30.5% 90.0% 336 194

Calico Jack Prospect 36.0% 28.8% 7,000 2,016 30.5% 90.0% 1,931 556

Offshore Prospects Total 86,097 39,300 23,424 10,661

Onshore

Highlander Near Term Drill 72.0% 57.6% 13,300 7,661 30.5% 90.0% 3,578 2,061

Lineham Drilling 36.0% 28.8% 10,800 3,110 30.5% 90.0% 2,976 857

Tortuga Prospect 72.0% 57.6% 5,590 3,220 28.9% 90.0% 1,465 844

Onshore Total 29,690 13,991 8,020 3,762

Total Ultra-Deep 123,221 57,311 —— 36,696 17,260

EVERCORE PARTNERS

23


LOGO

 

Preliminary Financial Analysis

Confidential

Ultra Deep Development Profile – Risked

Net Production

Production ( MMcfed)

1,400

1,200 1,000 800 600 400 2000

Discoveries Prospects

2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E

Net Operating Income ($MM)

NOI and Capex ($MM)

$2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 ($500) ($1,000)

$60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0

($10,000)

($20,000)

($30,000)

Cumulative Free Cash Flow ($MM)

2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E

Net Operating Income Capex Cumulative Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow ($MM)

Free Cash Flow ($MM)

$1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 ($500) ($1,000)

2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

2017E 2018E 2019E 020E

2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E

Discoveries Prospects

EVERCORE PARTNERS

24


LOGO

 

Preliminary Financial Analysis

Confidential

Ultra Deep Risking Methodology

Industry standard expected value analysis relies on risk weighting outcomes by their probabilities Cash flows from this analysis represent aggregate expected values for a full program inclusive of risk

Present Value of Development Well

Risk-weighted sum of the Present Values of the Success and Mechanical Failure cases

Present Value of Full Development

Sum of all development wells as calculated above

Expected Value of Ultra Deep Prospect

Risk-weighted sum of the Present

Value of Full Development and the Present Value of an Exploratory Dry Hole

Expected Value for an Ultra Deep Prospect

Exploration Well Full Development

Present Value GCOS of Full Development

(1-GCOS)

Present Value of Exploratory Dry Hole

Success Failure

Present

MCOS Value of

Well

Present

Success Failure

(1-MCOS) Value of

Mech. Failure

Present

Success Failure

MCOS Value of

Well

Present

(1-MCOS) Value of

Mech. Failure

Present

Success Failure

MCOS Value of

Well

Present

(1-MCOS) Value of

Mech. Failure

Risk Weighting

Expected Value = COS x (Present Value of Full Development) + (1-COS) x (Present Value of Exploratory Dry Hole)

EVERCORE PARTNERS

25


LOGO

 

Preliminary Financial Analysis

Confidential

Net Asset Value Analysis – Discount Rate Sensitivity

($ in millions)

NAV Summary(1)

Discount Rate

6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 15.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0%

Proved Developed Producing $259 $256 $253 $251 $248 $246 $243 $236 $226 $209 $195

Proved Developed Behind-Pipe 632 608 585 564 544 525 507 459 394 303 244

Proved Undeveloped 78 73 69 65 61 58 56 48 39 27 20

Proved Reserves $969 $937 $907 $880 $853 $829 $806 $744 $660 $540 $459

Probable 262 246 231 218 206 195 185 159 128 89 67

Proved plus Probable Reserves $1,231 $1,183 $1,139 $1,098 $1,060 $1,024 $991 $903 $788 $629 $526

Possible 233 222 212 203 194 187 180 161 136 102 80

3P Reserves $1,463 $1,405 $1,351 $1,301 $1,254 $1,211 $1,170 $1,064 $924 $731 $606

Ultra Deep Upside (Risked) 9,482 7,822 6,537 5,515 4,687 4,002 3,429 2,169 951 (92) (450)

P&A (Developed Properties) (238) (231) (224) (218) (212) (207) (202) (189) (171) (147) (132)

Gross Asset Value $10,707 $8,996 $7,663 $6,598 $5,729 $5,006 $4,398 $3,044 $1,704 $492 $24

Less: G&A (1,094) (953) (843) (756) (685) (625) (575) (463) (349) (234) (177)

Less: Insurance (477) (410) (358) (318) (284) (257) (234) (183) (133) (83) (59)

Less: Sulphur Reclaimation Expense (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19)

Pre-Tax Net Asset Value $9,117 $7,614 $6,442 $5,506 $4,741 $4,105 $3,569 $2,379 $1,203 $156 ($231)

Less: Cash Taxes (2,655) (2,194) (1,842) (1,567) (1,346) (1,167) (1,019) (700) (401) (154) (66)

After-Tax Net Asset Value $6,462 $5,420 $4,601 $3,939 $3,394 $2,938 $2,551 $1,679 $802 $3 ($297)

Add: Cash 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 192

Less: Debt (300) (300) (300) (300) (568) (568) (568) (568) (568) (568) (568)

Less: Preferred Shares 0 0 0 0 (700) (700) (700) (712) (712) (712) (712)

Equity Value $6,354 $5,312 $4,493 $3,831 $2,318 $1,862 $1,475 $591 ($286) ($1,085) ($1,385)

Fully Diluted Shares 232.2 230.8 229.1 227.1 164.9 164.3 164.0 161.9 161.9 161.9 161.9

$/Share $27.36 $23.02 $19.61 $16.87 $14.06 $11.34 $8.99 $3.65 ($1.77) ($6.70) ($8.56)

(1)

 

NAVs based on NYMEX strip pricing as of November 1, 2012 for five years and held flat thereafter

EVERCORE PARTNERS

26


LOGO

 

Preliminary Financial Analysis

Confidential

Net Asset Value Analysis – Price Sensitivity

($ in millions)

NAV Summary

Discount Commodity Prices

Rate NYMEX Strip (11/1/12) $75.00 Oil / $3.00 Gas $90.00 Oil / $4.00 Gas $105.00 Oil / $5.00 Gas

Low High Low High Low High Low High

Proved Developed Producing 8%—10% $248 $253 $181 $185 $258 $264 $335 $342

Proved Developed Behind-Pipe 10% —12% 507 544 381 409 507 544 633 678

Proved Undeveloped 15% —20% 39 48 14 20 38 46 61 73

Proved Reserves $794 $845 $577 $614 $803 $853 $1,028 $1,093

Probable 20% —30% 89 128 62 90 87 124 112 159

Proved plus Probable Reserves $884 $974 $639 $704 $890 $978 $1,140 $1,252

Possible 30% —40% 80 102 50 65 78 99 105 132

3P Reserves $964 $1,076 $689 $769 $967 $1,076 $1,245 $1,384

Ultra Deep Upside (Risked) 10% —12% 3,429 4,687 748 1,358 2,549 3,593 4,350 5,827

P&A (Developed Properties) 8%—10% (212) (224) (212) (224) (212) (224) (212) (224)

Gross Asset Value $4,181 $5,538 $1,224 $1,903 $3,304 $4,445 $5,383 $6,987

Less: G&A 12% —15% (463) (575) (463) (575) (463) (575) (463) (575)

Less: Insurance 8%—10% (284) (358) (284) (358) (284) (358) (284) (358)

Less: Sulphur Reclaimation Expense 10% —10% (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19)

Pre-Tax Net Asset Value $3,414 $4,586 $457 $950 $2,537 $3,492 $4,617 $6,034

Less: Cash Taxes 12% —15% (700) (1,019) (96) (164) (495) (734) (982) (1,399)

After-Tax Net Asset Value $2,714 $3,567 $361 $787 $2,042 $2,758 $3,634 $4,635

Add: Cash 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 192

Less: Debt (568) (568) (568) (568) (568) (568) (568) (300)

Less: Preferred Shares (700) (700) (712) (712) (712) (700) (700) 0

Equity Value $1,638 $2,491 ($727) ($302) $954 $1,682 $2,558 $4,527

Fully Diluted Shares 164.1 165.5 161.9 161.9 161.9 164.2 165.7 229.2

$/Share $9.98 $15.05 ($4.49) ($1.86) $5.89 $10.25 $15.44 $19.76

EVERCORE PARTNERS

27


LOGO

 

Preliminary Financial Analysis

Confidential

Peer Group Trading Analysis

($ in millions)

Conventional Assets Trading Peers

Enterprise Value / Price /

Price Equity Enterprise Proved Production EBITDAX CFPS Reserve & Production Statistics

Company 11/8/12 Value Value Reserves Current 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E Proved Res. % Gas % Dev. LQ Prod. 2012E 2013E R/P

($/Mcfe) ($/Mcfed) ($/Mcfed) ($/Mcfed) (x) (x) (x) (x) (Bcfe) (%) (%) (Mcfed) (Mcfed) (Mcfed) (Years)

Energy XXI Limited $ 32.44 $2,864 $3,765 $5.25 $13,178 $14,227 $11,661 4.0x 3.2x NA 3.3x 718 29.1% 68.3% 285,700 264,636 322,885 6.9

EPL Oil & Gas, Inc. $ 20.39 $808 $952 $2.16 $12,647 $11,735 $6,947 3.4x 2.0x 3.2x 1.9x 440 36.1% 45.8% 75,266 81,111 137,023 16.0

Stone Energy Corporation $ 20.52 $1,030 $1,381 $2.27 $5,691 $5,526 $4,972 2.2x 2.2x 1.7x 1.7x 609 54.6% 59.8% 242,703 249,951 277,780 6.9

W&T Offshore, Inc. $ 16.65 $1,279 $1,951 $2.78 $6,899 $6,803 $6,028 3.7x 3.2x 2.6x 2.4x 701 41.3% 65.5% 282,721 286,746 323,610 6.8

Mean $1,495 $2,012 $3.11 $9,604 $9,573 $7,402 3.3x 2.7x 2.5x 2.3x 617 40.3% 59.8% 221,597 220,611 265,324 9.1

Median $1,155 $1,666 $2.52 $9,773 $9,269 $6,487 3.6x 2.7x 2.6x 2.1x 655 38.7% 62.6% 262,712 257,293 300,332 6.9

McMoRan Exploration Co. $12.51 $2,056 $3,132 $15.02 $23,407 $22,313 $21,072 17.5x 18.5x 19.6x 21.2x 209 59.7% 81.8% 133,809 140,369 148,635 4.3

Ultra-Deep Assets Trading Peers

Adj. Enterprise Value(4) /

Price Equity Enterprise Resources(2)(3) Risked Unrisked

Company Area 11/8/12 Value Value(1) Risked Unrisked % Gas Resource Resource

($/share) ($MM) ($MM) (Bcfe) (Bcfe) (%) ($/Mcfe) ($/Mcfe)

Cobalt Total Company (GOM, Angola and Gabon) $20.24 $8,397 $8,155 90,825 302,915 0% $0.09 $0.03

GOM (Miocene and Lower Tertiary) — — $2,543 14,065 59,430 0% $0.18 $0.04

GOM (Miocene Only) — — $1,238 6,120 18,655 0% $0.20 $0.07

GOM (Lower Tertiary Only) — — $1,305 7,945 40,775 0% $0.16 $0.03

Africa (Angola and Gabon) — — $5,612 76,760 243,485 0% $0.07 $0.02

McMoRan Exploration Co. $12.51 $2,056 $3,132 17,260 57,311 95% $0.14 $0.04

Source: FactSet

Note: Proved Reserves as of year-end 2011

(1) Cobalt value allocated by area based on the value attributed to each area by street research as a percentage of total NAV (2) Cobalt resource numbers represent the average of street research estimates

(3) Oil converted to gas equivalent on an economic equivalents basis using the average NYMEX forward strip pricing for WTI Oil and HHUB gas for the next 60 months as of November 1, 2012 (19.9:1)

(4)

 

Enterprise value adjusted to remove the value of McMoRan’s Conventional Assets

EVERCORE PARTNERS

28


LOGO

 

Preliminary Financial Analysis

Confidential

Peer Group Trading Analysis – Valuation Summary

Peer Group Trading Analysis – Valuation Summary

Relevant Multiples Value Range ($MM)

Metric Data (1) Low High Low High

Conventional Assets

Proved Reserves (Bcfe) 208.5 $2.50 / Mcfe $3.50 / Mcfe $521 $730

Production—2013E (Mcfed) 148,635 $6,000 / Mcfed $6,500 / Mcfed $892 $966

EBITDAX—2012E ($ MM) 179.0 3.2x 3.8x $573 $680

EBITDAX—2013E ($ MM) 169.5 3.0x 3.8x $509 $644

Selected Conventional Asset Value Range $624 $755

Ultra-Deep Assets

Net Risked Resources (Bcfe) 17,260 $0.10 / Mcfe $0.18 / Mcfe $1,726 $3,107

Implied Enterprise Value Range $2,350 $3,862

Add: Cash 191.9 191.9

Less: Debt (567.8) (300.0)

Less: Preferred Shares (700.0) 0.0

Implied Equity Value $1,274 $3,754

Diluted Shares Outstanding 163.9 226.8

Implied Equity Value per Share $7.77 $16.55

(1) Based on Company provided reserve and I/B/E/S estimates

EVERCORE PARTNERS

29


LOGO

 

Preliminary Financial Analysis

Confidential

Precedent Transactions – Gulf of Mexico Shelf

Selected Precedent Gulf of Mexico Shelf M&A Transactions

Trans. Reserves Production Implied Value / HHUB WTI

Date Buyer Seller Value Proved Res. % Gas % Dev. Prod. % Gas R/P Proved Res. Production 12-Mo Strip 12-Mo Strip

($MM) (Bcfe) (%) (%) (Mcfed) (%) (Years) ($/Mcfe) ($/Mcfed) $/MMBtu) ($/bbl)

18-Oct-12 NGP/Northstar Undisclosed Private $160 44.4 — — 12,600 — 9.7 $3.60 $12,698 $ 3.91 $94.01

26-Sep-12 Arena Energy McMoRan $37 15.2 78% 22% 10,000 70% 4.2 $2.42 $3,680 $ 3.49 $92.50

17-Sep-12 EPL Hilcorp $550 217.8 46% 42% 60,000 50% 9.9 $2.53 $9,167 $ 3.42 $99.87

7-Sep-12 Renaissance McMoRan $28 7.4 23% — — — — $3.81 — $ 3.26 $96.84

15-May-12 Energy Partners W&T $32 6.0 49% 84% 5,760 48% 2.9 $5.40 $5,621 $ 3.02 $95.94

2-Feb-12 SandRidge Dynamic/Riverstone $1,256 375.0 50% 50% 150,000 50% 6.8 $3.35 $8,371 $ 2.89 $99.10

1-Dec-11 KNOC/SCL/STX/Samchully NGP/Northstar $201 64.8 30% — 28,200 30% 6.3 $3.10 $7,128 $ 3.75 $99.69

1-Nov-11 Apache Stone $38 7.8 4% 100% 2,460 1% 8.7 $4.92 $15,610 $ 4.09 $92.81

1-Nov-11 Energy Partners Stone $38 7.8 4% 100% 2,460 1% 8.7 $4.92 $15,610 $ 4.09 $92.81

25-Aug-11 Dynamic Offshore Moreno/SPN $68 21.3 35% 92% 8,214 35% 7.1 $3.19 $8,279 $ 4.20 $87.47

29-Jul-11 Dynamic Offshore Exxon Mobil $183 81.0 61% 72% 42,000 60% 5.3 $2.25 $4,345 $ 4.52 $99.76

1-May-11 Dynamic Offshore Gryphon/Woodside $28 12.6 88% 100% — — — $2.18 — $ 4.98 $114.41

7-Apr-11 TRT/Tana Maritech/TETRA $150 54.6 37% 89% — — — $2.75 — $ 4.57 $110.21

9-Mar-11 Undisclosed National Fuel/Seneca $70 34.4 74% 75% 28,793 76% 3.3 $2.03 $2,431 $ 4.28 $106.32

13-Jan-11 Energy Partners Anglo-Suisse $201 48.6 16% 76% 18,000 8% 7.4 $4.13 $11,150 $ 4.72 $94.89

21-Nov-10 Energy XXI (Bermuda) Exxon Mobil $1,012 296.7 39% 68% 120,000 47% 6.8 $3.41 $8,433 $ 4.37 $83.60

20-Sep-10 McMoRan Plains $158(1) 60.0 85% — 45,000 85% 3.7 $2.63 $3,501 $ 4.44 $79.08

3-Nov-10 W&T Shell $37 54.4 72% — 26,700 73% 5.6 $0.67 $1,375 $ 4.21 $86.18

Maximum $1,256 375.0 88% 100% 150,000 85% 9.9 $5.40 $15,610 $4.98 $114.41

Minimum $28 6.0 4% 22% 2,460 1% 2.9 $0.67 $1,375 $2.89 $79.08

Mean $240 78.3 47% 75% 37,346 45% 6.4 $3.18 $7,827 $4.01 $95.86

Median $70 46.5 46% 76% 26,700 49% 6.8 $3.15 $8,279 $4.15 $95.41

Source: IHS Herold

(1) Represents 19% of the total transaction value which is the share McMoRan allocated to proved reserves

EVERCORE PARTNERS

30


LOGO

 

Preliminary Financial Analysis

Confidential

Precedent Transactions – Gulf Coast Onshore

Selected Precedent Gulf Coast Onshore M&A Transactions

Trans. Reserves Production Implied Value / HHUB WTI

Date Buyer Seller Value Proved Res. % Gas % Dev. Prod. % Gas R/P Proved Res. Production 12-Mo Strip 12-Mo Strip

($MM) (Bcfe) (%) (%) (Mcfed) (%) (Years) ($/Mcfe) ($/Mcfed) $/MMBtu) ($/bbl)

12-Oct-12 Texas Petr. Forest $220 45.0 38% — 20,000 35% 6.2 $4.89 $11,000 $ 3.97 $93.91

4-Oct-12 Undisclosed Carrizo $20 — — — 5,720 87% — — $3,409 $ 3.77 $89.73

19-Mar-12 Undisclosed Comstock $123 63.2 84% — 11,296 81% 15.3 $1.95 $10,889 $ 2.92 $108.62

4-Nov-11 Undisclosed Plains $185 120.0 100% — 39,000 100% 8.4 $1.54 $4,744 $ 3.96 $93.30

31-Aug-11 Encore Energy Part. Undisclosed $48 12.6 17% 100% 2,580 17% 13.4 $3.78 $18,450 $ 4.29 $90.64

17-Aug-11 EnergyQuest II Swift $54 92.2 65% 19% 10,600 65% 23.8 $0.58 $5,047 $ 4.31 $88.50

6-Jun-11 Linc Energy Ltd. ERG $236 123.0 6% — 18,600 6% 18.1 $1.92 $12,688 $ 4.93 $102.35

13-May-11 Undisclosed Private Energy XXI (Bermuda) $41 — — — 9,710 82% — — $4,222 $ 4.57 $100.07

3-Mar-11 Legend Nat. Gas Smith $99 — — — 8,800 65% — — $11,273 $ 4.25 $104.61

18-Jan-11 Gulf Coast Energy Cypress $95 — — — 11,020 91% — — $8,621 $ 4.73 $94.51

17-Jan-11 Undisclosed Strike $22 8.3 — — — — — $2.63 — $ 4.71 $95.10

Maximum $236 123.0 100% 100% 39,000 100% 23.8 $4.89 $18,450 $4.93 $108.62

Minimum $20 8.3 6% 19% 2,580 6% 6.2 $0.58 $3,409 $2.92 $88.50

Mean $104 66.3 52% 59% 13,733 63% 14.2 $2.47 $9,034 $4.22 $96.48

Median $95 63.2 52% 59% 10,810 73% 14.4 $1.95 $9,755 $4.29 $94.51

Source: IHS Herolds

EVERCORE PARTNERS

31


LOGO

 

Preliminary Financial Analysis

Confidential

Precedent Transactions – GOM Deepwater (Non-Proved) and Ultra-Deep Shelf

GOM Deepwater (Net Recoverable Resources)

Trans. Net Recoverable Implied Value / HHUB WTI

Date Buyer Seller Value Resources Net Recoverable Resources 12-Mo Strip 12-Mo Strip

($MM) (Bcfe) ($/Mcfe) ($/MMBtu) ($/bbl)

2-Jul-12 INPEX Anadarko $556 129.6 $4.29 $3.29 $87.14

1-Oct-10 Hess BP $40 144.0 $0.28 $4.28 $83.28

22-Dec-09 Maersk/Various Devon $1,300 1,645.0 $0.79 $5.90 $76.43

Maximum $1,300 1,645.0 $4.29 $5.90 $87.14

Minimum $40 129.6 $0.28 $3.29 $76.43

Mean $632 639.5 $1.79 $4.49 $82.28

Median $556 144.0 $0.79 $4.28 $83.28

Ultra- Deep Shelf (Net Unrisked Potential)

Trans. Ultra-Deep Net Transaction Value / HHUB WTI

Date Buyer Seller Value Unrisked Potential Ultra-Deep Net Unrisked Potential 12-Mo Strip 12-Mo Strip

($MM) (Tcfe) ($/Mcfe) ($/MMBtu) ($/bbl)

20-Sep-10 McMoRan Plains $672(1) 6.6 $0.10 $4.44 $79.08

8-Sep-11 McMoRan Whitney $49 0.1 $0.57 $4.33 $90.18

Source: IHS Herolds

(1) Represents 81% of the total transaction value which is the share McMoRan allocated to unevaluated oil and gas property

EVERCORE PARTNERS

32


LOGO

 

Preliminary Financial Analysis

Confidential

Precedent Transactions – Ultra-Deep Shelf Value

Ultra-Deep Shelf Valuation Precedent Transactions

Gross Unrisked Net Unrisked Gross Risked Net Risked Metric Used Implied Valuation

Prospect Category WI NRI Resource Potential Resource Potential Resource Potential Resource Potential Low High Low High

% % Bcfe Bcfe Bcfe Bcfe $/Mcfe $ /Mcfe $MM $MM

Offshore

Davy Jones Discovery 63.4% 50.2% 3,248 1,631 2,321 1,165 $ 0.50 $ 0.60 $583 $699

Blackbeard East Discovery 72.0% 57.4% 1,040 597 737 423 $ 0.25 $ 0.50 106 211

Lafitte Discovery 72.0% 58.3% 2,342 1,365 1,601 933 $ 0.25 $ 0.50 233 467

Blackbeard West Discovery 69.4% 53.1% 804 427 592 315 $ 0.25 $ 0.50 79 157

Offshore Discoveries Total 7,434 4,020 5,252 2,836 $1,000 $1,535

England Prospect 36.0% 28.8% 27,300 7,862 7,487 2,156 $ 0.10 $ 0.15 $216 $323

Barbosa Prospect 72.0% 57.6% 2,588 1,491 721 415 $ 0.10 $ 0.15 42 62

Morgan Prospect 72.0% 57.6% 1,000 576 281 162 $ 0.10 $ 0.15 16 24

Barataria Prospect 72.0% 57.6% 2,820 1,624 776 447 $ 0.10 $ 0.15 45 67

Blackbeard West #3 Prospect 69.4% 55.5% 498 276 288 160 $ 0.10 $ 0.15 16 24

Drake Prospect 72.0% 57.6% 14,580 8,398 3,765 2,169 $ 0.10 $ 0.15 217 325

Davy Jones West Prospect 36.0% 28.8% 1,400 403 391 113 $ 0.10 $ 0.15 11 17

Hurricane Prospect 72.0% 57.6% 1,575 907 446 257 $ 0.10 $ 0.15 26 39

Hook Prospect 72.0% 57.6% 4,890 2,817 1,257 724 $ 0.10 $ 0.15 72 109

Captain Blood Prospect 72.0% 57.6% 18,000 10,368 4,957 2,855 $ 0.10 $ 0.15 286 428

Bonnet Prospect 72.0% 57.6% 3,150 1,814 788 454 $ 0.10 $ 0.15 45 68

Queen Anne’s Revenge Prospect 72.0% 57.6% 1,296 746 336 194 $ 0.10 $ 0.15 19 29

Calico Jack Prospect 36.0% 28.8% 7,000 2,016 1,931 556 $ 0.10 $ 0.15 56 83

Offshore Prospects Total 86,097 39,300 23,424 10,661 $1,066 $1,599

Onshore

Highlander Near Term Drill 72.0% 57.6% 13,300 7,661 3,578 2,061 $ 0.10 $ 0.15 $206 $309

Lineham Drilling 36.0% 28.8% 10,800 3,110 2,976 857 $ 0.10 $ 0.15 86 129

Tortuga Prospect 72.0% 57.6% 5,590 3,220 1,465 844 $ 0.10 $ 0.15 84 127

Onshore Total 29,690 13,991 8,020 3,762 $376 $564

Total Ultra-Deep 123,221 57,311 36,696 17,260 $2,443 $3,698

EVERCORE PARTNERS

33


LOGO

 

Preliminary Financial Analysis

Confidential

Precedent Transactions – Valuation Summary

Precedent Asset Transactions – Valuation Summary

Relevant Multiples Value Range ($MM)

Metric Data Low High Low High

Gulf of Mexico Shelf

Proved Reserves (Bcfe) 183.8 $2.50 / Mcfe $3.50 / Mcfe $460 $643

Production—Current (Mcfed) 103,211 $5,000 / Mcfed $7,000 / Mcfed $516 $722

Selected Gulf of Mexico Shelf Value Range $488 $683

Gulf Coast Onshore

Proved Reserves (Bcfe) 24.7 $2.50 / Mcfe $3.75 / Mcfe $62 $93

Production—Current (Mcfed) 30,598 $3,500 / Mcfed $5,000 / Mcfed $107 $153

Selected Gulf Coast Onshore Value Range $84 $123

Total Conventional Asset Value Range $572 $806

Ultra-Deep Assets

Net Risked Resources (Bcfe) 17,260 Various (See Previous Page) $2,443 $3,698

Implied Enterprise Value Range $3,015 $4,504

Add: Cash 191.9 191.9

Less: Debt (567.8) (300.0)

Less: Preferred Shares (700.0) 0.0

Implied Equity Value $1,939 $4,396

Diluted Shares Outstanding 164.3 228.8

Implied Equity Value per Share $11.80 $19.21

EVERCORE PARTNERS

34


LOGO

 

Preliminary Financial Analysis

Confidential

Precedent M&A Transactions – Corporate

Trans. Equity Equity Value / Transaction Value / Premium Reserve & Production Statistics HHUB WTI

Date Buyer Seller Value Value Cash Flow Cash Flow EBITDA EBITDA Proved Res. Prod. 1 Day 1-Mo. 2-Mo. Proved Res. % Gas % Dev. R/P Spot Price Spot Price

($MM) ($MM) Current Forward Current Forward ($/Mcfe) ($/Mcfed) (%) (%) (%) (Bcfe) (%) (%) (Years) ($/MMBtu) ($/bbl)

25-Apr-12 Halcon GeoResources $945 $973 7.8x 6.1x 6.8x 5.2x $4.97 $18,175 23% 12% 26% 190.2 36% 70% 12.4 $1.97 $103.16

17-Oct-11 Statoil ASA Brigham Exploration $4,822 $4,468 14.7x 7.7x 14.5x 8.0x $12.03 $47,837 20% 26% 11% 400.8 22% 35% 10.9 3.49 86.80

15-Jul-11 BHP Billiton Petrohawk $15,223 $12,085 10.1x 7.3x 10.3x 7.6x $2.75 $11,274 65% 49% 46% 3,391.5 92% 35% 11.2 4.42 95.69

9-Nov-10 Chevron Atlas Energy $4,315 $3,215 18.1x 15.2x 17.1x 15.6x $1.73 $17,608 37% 62% 49% 847.0 99% 44% 27.9 3.49 87.06

2-Jun-10 SandRidge Energy Arena Resources $1,287 $1,394 8.4x 6.4x 7.9x 6.1x $3.05 $25,728 7% (6%) 2% 415.5 14% 37% 23.1 4.39 72.58

15-Apr-10 Apache Mariner Energy $4,685 $2,770 5.3x 4.0x 7.6x 5.7x $3.13 $10,944 45% 68% 92% 1,087.1 53% 66% 9.6 4.15 85.84

14-Dec-09 Exxon Mobil XTO $40,496 $31,254 5.3x 5.8x 5.9x 6.6x $1.92 $9,797 25% 24% 20% 14,827.3 84% 61% 14.0 5.21 69.87

1-Nov-09 Denbury Resources Encore Acquisition Co. $4,465 $2,864 6.8x 6.9x 10.7x 8.8x $2.72 $13,256 35% 34% 38% 1,321.7 33% 80% 13.4 4.11 77.00

27-Apr-09 Atlas Energy, Inc. Atlas Energy Resources $1,015 $482 2.4x 2.4x 3.3x 3.2x $1.46 $14,827 0% 60% (5%) 517.6 99% 60% 27.9 3.31 50.80

30-Apr-08 Stone Energy Bois d’Arc Energy $1,750 $1,736 5.4x 5.0x 5.6x 4.9x $4.48 $13,068 (4%) 21% 32% 335.0 57% 74% 8.0 10.94 115.63

17-Jul-07 Plains E&P Pogo Producing Co. $3,749 $3,594 5.5x 6.2x 5.5x 5.2x $2.48 $11,095 18% 11% 19% 1,314.0 65% 73% 12.2 6.32 74.15

7-Jan-07 Forest Oil Houston Exploration $1,827 $1,574 4.2x 3.6x 4.1x 3.8x $2.42 $7,844 8% (7%) (4%) 699.3 96% 67% 8.9 5.52 56.31

23-Jun-06 Anadarko Western Gas Res. $5,385 $4,800 10.7x 9.9x 10.6x 9.0x $2.90 $13,563 49% 9% 24% 920.8 97% 43% 12.8 6.51 70.49

23-Jun-06 Anadarko Kerr-McGee $19,623 $16,500 7.1x 5.7x 7.3x 5.7x $3.14 $11,450 40% 27% 51% 5,388.0 62% 60% 10.0 6.51 70.49

21-Apr-06 Petrohawk KCS Energy $2,008 $1,630 5.5x 4.7x 5.8x 4.9x $3.54 $10,822 10% 46% 15% 463.0 88% 73% 8.4 7.93 71.95

23-Jan-06 Helix Remington $1,312 $1,385 6.5x 4.7x 6.0x 4.4x $4.29 $14,622 22% 23% 27% 278.9 60% 57% 9.3 8.78 68.35

12-Dec-05 ConocoPhillips Burlington Resources $36,400 $34,639 7.7x 6.6x 6.4x 5.3x $2.58 $11,173 19% 26% 20% 12,484.2 68% 73% 11.8 15.02 59.39

13-Oct-05 Occidental Petroleum Vintage Petroleum $4,119 $3,539 7.9x 7.4x 7.0x 6.1x $1.38 $7,929 32% 31% 53% 2,623.2 32% 67% 15.7 13.68 64.12

19-Sep-05 Norsk Hydro ASA Spinnaker Exploration $2,592 $2,596 8.2x 6.8x 7.9x 6.0x $6.04 $15,847 49% 43% 36% 373.6 49% 34% 7.2 11.24 63.00

Max $40,496 18.1x 15.2x 17.1x 15.6x $12.03 $47,837 65% 68% 92% 14,827 99% 80% 27.9 $15.02 $115.63

Mean $8,212 7.8x 6.4x 7.9x 6.4x $3.53 $15,098 26% 29% 29% 2,520 63% 58% 13.4 6.68 75.93

Median $4,119 7.1x 6.2x 7.0x 5.7x $2.90 $13,068 23% 26% 26% 847 62% 61% 11.8 5.52 71.95

Min $945 2.4x 2.4x 3.3x 3.2x $1.38 $7,844 (4%) (7%) (5%) 190 14% 34% 7.2 1.97 50.80

Source: IHS Herold, FactSet

Note: Only includes transactions greater than $100 million

EVERCORE PARTNERS

35


LOGO

 

Preliminary Financial Analysis

Confidential

Precedent M&A Transactions – Valuation Summary

Precedent Corporate Transactions – Valuation Summary

Relevant Multiples Value Range ($MM)

Metric Data Low High Low High

Cash Flow— 2012E ($ MM) 94.5 14.5x 18.0x $2,463 $2,800

Cash Flow— 2013E ($ MM) 121.0 10.0x 15.0x $2,300 $2,917

EBITDAX—2012E ($MM) 175.4 14.5x 17.0x $2,543 $2,982

EBITDAX—2013E ($MM) 177.0 12.0x 15.5x $2,124 $2,743

Proved Reserves (Bcfe) 208.5 $8.00 / Mcfe $12.00 / Mcfe $1,668 $2,502

Production—2013E (Mcfed) 138,809 $20,000 / Mcfed $25,000 / Mcfed $2,776 $3,470

Implied Enterprise Value Range $2,312 $2,902

Add: Cash 191.9 191.9

Less: Debt (567.8) (567.8)

Less: Preferred Shares (700.0) (700.0)

Implied Equity Value $1,236 $1,826

Diluted Shares Outstanding 163.8 164.2

Implied Equity Value per Share $7.55 $11.12

(1)

 

Estimates as per MMR Operating Model

EVERCORE PARTNERS

36


LOGO

 

Preliminary Financial Analysis

Confidential

Precedent M&A Transactions – Corporate Takeover Premiums – 100% Cash Consideration

Date Transaction Premiums

Announced Target Acquiror Value ($MM) 1 Day 5 Day 1 Month

11/1/12 JDA Software Group Inc. RedPrairie Corporation $2,213 18.0% 32.6% 39.2%

10/30/12 Schiff Nutrition International Inc. Bayer HealthCare, LLC 1,196 96.9% 96.1% 88.7%

10/25/12 PSS World Medical Inc. McKesson Corporation 1,939 34.3% 31.3% 25.8%

10/22/12 Ancestry.com Inc. Permira/Spectrum 1,609 9.7% 11.8% 3.3%

10/18/12 Orient-Express Hotels Ltd. The Indian Hotels Company Limited 1,819 40.0% 46.0% 32.8%

10/11/12 Oshkosh Corporation Carl C. Icahn 3,636 21.0% 15.7% 21.5%

10/8/12 TPC Group Inc Innospec Inc. 1,069 13.1% 12.0% 8.6%

9/27/12 Sealy Corporation Tempur-Pedic International Inc. 1,018 2.8% 7.8% 39.2%

9/13/12 Citizens Republic Bancorp, Inc. FirstMerit Corporation 1,025 18.3% 15.0% 17.8%

9/6/12 American Realty Capital Trust, Inc. Realty Income Corp. 2,882 2.1% 3.8% 8.9%

9/3/12 Medicis Pharmaceutical Corp. Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. 3,158 39.4% 34.5% 31.0%

8/27/12 Kenexa Corp. IBM 1,397 42.0% 38.0% 86.7%

8/27/12 TPC Group Inc. First Reserve/SK Capital Partners 1,001 1.0% (0.5%) 0.0%

8/26/12 Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group Inc. Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. 4,147 8.0% 11.0% 15.2%

8/22/12 Sunrise Senior Living Inc. Health Care REIT, Inc. 1,469 62.4% 73.9% 117.7%

8/20/12 Coventry Health Care Inc. Aetna Inc. 7,311 20.4% 30.3% 31.0%

8/13/12 Focus Media Holding Ltd. The Carlyle Group 3,688 15.5% 28.1% 38.5%

8/9/12 Robbins & Myers Inc. National Oilwell Varco, Inc. 2,570 28.2% 35.0% 43.7%

8/6/12 Best Buy Co. Inc. Richard Schulze 9,875 47.4% 44.0% 20.4%

7/9/12 AMERIGROUP Corporation WellPoint Inc. 5,104 43.0% 40.6% 47.2%

6/29/12 Elster Group SE Melrose PLC 2,881 5.8% 8.8% 46.0%

3/12/12 Pacific Capital Bancorp UnionBanCal Corporation 1,525 60.3% 60.2% 61.3%

2/21/12 CH Energy Group Inc. Fortis Inc. 1,500 10.6% 12.4% 15.5%

2/16/12 CVR Energy, Inc. Icahn Enterprises Holdings L.P 3,231 8.7% 6.7% 27.7%

Mean 27.0% 29.0% 36.2% Median 19.4% 29.2% 31.0%

Selected Valuation Range

Relevant Multiples Value Range ($MM)

Metric Metric Low High Low High

1

 

Day Premium $12.51 20.0% 30.0% $15.01 $16.26

5

 

Day Premium $12.51 25.0% 35.0% $15.64 $16.89

1

 

Month Premium $12.51 30.0% 40.0% $16.26 $17.51

Implied Equity Value Range $15.64 $16.89

Source: Capital IQ

Note: Includes public corporate takeover transactions announced or closed in 2012 YTD between $1.0 billion and $10.0 billion.

EVERCORE PARTNERS

37


LOGO

 

Preliminary Financial Analysis

Confidential

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

Summary Results

Terminal Value

For the Years Ending December 31, EBITDA Perpetuity

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Exit Multiple Growth Rate

Adjusted EBITDA $177 $438 $727 $966 $ 1,138 $ 1,138 $1,138

Less: DD&A (841) (1,549) (1,292) (1,071) (906) —

EBIT (664) (1,111) (565) (105) 232 $1,137.6

Less: Taxes @ 35.0% — — — — — (398.1)

EBIAT (664) (1,111) (565) (105) 232 $739.4

Plus: DD&A 841 1,549 1,292 1,071 906 —

Less: Growth Capital Expenditures (500) (749) (551) (489) (493) —

Less: Sustaining Capital Expenditures — — — — — —

Unlevered FCF ($323.0) ($310.7) $176.2 $477.6 $ 645.1 $739.4

Terminal Value Multiple/Growth Rate 5.0x 0.5%

PV of Terminal Value @ 10.0% $ 3,272 $4,500

Plus: Present Value of Unlevered FCF 865

Plus: PV of 0.5x 2017E NOL @ 10.0% 637

Implied Enterprise Value $4,774—$6,002

EBITDA Multiple Sensitivity

WACC EBITDA Multiple

$4,774.1 4.0x 4.5x 5.0x 5.5x 6.0x

9.0% $4,422 $4,820 $5,218 $5,616 $6,015

10.0% 4,025 4,400 4,774 5,148 5,523

11.0% 3,689 4,041 4,393 4,745 5,098

12.0% 3,397 3,729 4,061 4,393 4,725

13.0% 3,141 3,454 3,767 4,080 4,393

Perpetuity Growth Rate Sensitivity

WACC Perpetuity Growth Rate

$6,002.1 (0.5%) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5%

9.0% $6,372 $6,702 $7,071 $7,486 $7,956

10.0% 5,465 5,720 6,002 6,315 6,665

11.0% 4,731 4,932 5,152 5,394 5,661

12.0% 4,126 4,287 4,462 4,653 4,862

13.0% 3,621 3,752 3,894 4,047 4,214

EVERCORE PARTNERS

38


LOGO

 

Appendix

EVERCORE PARTNERS


LOGO

 

Appendix

Confidential

Weighted Average Cost of Capital

($ in millions, except per share amounts)

Weighted Average Cost of Capital – CAPM

Equity Cost of Capital

WACC

Stock Prices as of Market Equity Total Debt and Debt & Preferred/ Adjusted Unlevered

Company 11/8/12 Value Preferred Stock Total Cap Beta Beta

McMoRan Exploration Co. $12.51 $2,056.1 $1,268 38.1% 1.35 0.97

W&T Offshore Inc. 42.29 5,011 1,420 22.1% 1.67 1.42

Energy XXI (Bermuda) Ltd. 61.25 9,163 2,737 23.0% 1.48 1.25

Stone Energy Corp. 4.2 216 3 1.4% 1.57 1.56

Cobalt International Energy Inc. 88.34 9,365 2,523 21.2% 1.69 1.45

EPL Oil & Gas Inc. 116.81 32,343 5,012 13.4% 1.38 1.26

Mean 19.9% 1.52 1.32 Median 21.7% 1.53 1.34

Comparable

MMR Companies

Risk-Free Rate (4) 1.7% 1.7%

Unlevered Beta 0.97 1.32

Debt and Preferred / Total Capitalization 38.1% 19.9%

Adjusted Equity Beta 1.35 1.52

Market Risk Premium (5) 8.7% 8.7%

Equity Cost of Capital 13.4% 15.0%

Pre-Tax Cost of Debt 7.5% 7.5%

After-Tax Cost of Debt 4.7% 4.7%

WACC 10.1% 12.9%

(1)

 

Source: Predicted raw betas from FactSet; Adjusted Equity Beta calculated as: (0.67)*Raw Beta +(0.33)* 1.0

(2)

 

Unlevered Beta calculated as: Adjusted Equity Beta x (E/(E + D*(1-T)); Assumes corporate tax rate of 37.0%

(3)

 

10-year Treasury as of November 8, 2012

(4)

 

Source: Bloomberg

(5)

 

Equity Cost of Capital calculated as: Risk-free rate + (Levered Equity Beta x Market Risk Premium)

EVERCORE PARTNERS

39


LOGO

 

Appendix

Confidential

Ultra Deep Development Profile – Unrisked

Net Production

Production (MMcfed)

3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

Discoveries Prospects

2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E

Net Operating Income ($MM)

NOI and Capex ($MM)

$6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0

($1,000) ($2,000) ($3,000)

$180,000 $150,000 $120,000 $90,000 $60,000 $30,000 $0 ($30,000) ($60,000) ($90,000)

Cumulative Free Cash Flow ($MM)

2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E

Net Operating Income Capex Cumulative Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow ($MM) / Pre-Tax Net Present Value ($MM)

Free Cash Flow ($MM)

$4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 ($1,000)

Discoveries Prospects

2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E

Discount Rate

Price Deck $10,771.8 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 15.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0%

NYMEX Strip (11/1/12) $15,874 $13,009 $10,772 $8,991 $7,552 $4,575 $1,981 $39 ($542)

$75.00 Oil / $3.00 Gas 5,981 4,588 3,514 2,670 1,998 648 (442) (1,095) (1,168)

$90.00 Oil / $4.00 Gas 12,609 10,232 8,379 6,908 5,723 3,283 1,187 (330) (744)

$105.00 Oil / $5.00 Gas 19,238 15,875 13,244 11,147 9,447 5,919 2,815 436 (319)

EVERCORE PARTNERS

40