EX-99.2 3 d658573dex992.htm EX-99.2 EX-99.2
4th Quarter Earnings Conference
1
January 9, 2014
[Alcoa logo]
[Alcoa logo]
Exhibit 99.2


Cautionary Statement
2
o[Alcoa logo]
Forward-Looking Statements
This
presentation
contains
statements
that
relate
to
future
events
and
expectations
and
as
such
constitute
forward-looking
statements.
Forward-looking
statements
include
those
containing
such
words
as
“anticipates,”
“estimates,”
“expects,”
“forecasts,”
“intends,”
“outlook,”
“plans,”
“projects,”
“should,”
“targets,”
“will,”
or
other
words
of
similar
meaning.
All
statements
that
reflect
Alcoa’s
expectations,
assumptions,
or
projections
about
the
future
other
than
statements
of
historical
fact
are
forward-looking
statements,
including,
without
limitation,
forecasts
concerning
global
demand
growth
for
aluminum,
end-market
conditions,
supply/demand
balances,
and
growth
opportunities
for
aluminum
in
automotive,
aerospace
and
other
applications,
trend
projections,
targeted
financial
results
or
operating
performance,
and
statements
about
Alcoa’s
strategies,
outlook,
and
business
and
financial
prospects. 
Forward-looking
statements
are
subject
to
a
number
of
known
and
unknown
risks,
uncertainties,
and
other
factors
and
are
not
guarantees
of
future
performance.
Important
factors
that
could
cause
actual
results
to
differ
materially
from
those
in
the
forward-looking
statements
include:
(a)
material
adverse
changes
in
aluminum
industry
conditions,
including
global
supply
and
demand
conditions
and
fluctuations
in
London
Metal
Exchange-based
prices
and
premiums,
as
applicable
for
primary
aluminum,
alumina,
and
other
products,
and
fluctuations
in
indexed-based
and
spot
prices
for
alumina;
(b)
deterioration
in
global
economic
and
financial
market
conditions
generally;
(c)
unfavorable
changes
in
the
markets
served
by
Alcoa,
including
automotive
and
commercial
transportation,
aerospace,
building
and
construction,
distribution,
packaging,
defense,
and
industrial
gas
turbine;
(d)
the
impact
of
changes
in
foreign
currency
exchange
rates
on
costs
and
results,
particularly
the
Australian
dollar,
Brazilian
real,
Canadian
dollar,
euro,
and
Norwegian
kroner;
(e)
increases
in
energy
costs,
including
electricity,
natural
gas,
and
fuel
oil,
or
the
unavailability
or
interruption
of
energy
supplies;
(f)
increases
in
the
costs
of
other
raw
materials,
including
calcined
petroleum
coke,
caustic
soda,
and
liquid
pitch;
(g)
Alcoa’s
inability
to
achieve
the
level
of
revenue
growth,
cash
generation,
cost
savings,
improvement
in
profitability
and
margins,
fiscal
discipline,
or
strengthening
of
competitiveness
and
operations
(including
moving
its
alumina
refining
and
aluminum
smelting
businesses
down
on
the
industry
cost
curves
and
increasing
revenues
in
its
Global
Rolled
Products
and
Engineered
Products
and
Solutions
segments)
anticipated
from
its
restructuring
programs
and
productivity
improvement,
cash
sustainability,
and
other
initiatives;
(h)
Alcoa's
inability
to
realize
expected
benefits,
in
each
case
as
planned
and
by
targeted
completion
dates,
from
sales
of
non-core
assets,
or
from
newly
constructed,
expanded,
or
acquired
facilities,
including
facilities
supplying
auto
sheet
capacity
or
aluminum-lithium
capacity,
or
from
international
joint
ventures,
including
the
joint
venture
in
Saudi
Arabia;
(i)
political,
economic,
and
regulatory
risks
in
the
countries
in
which
Alcoa
operates
or
sells
products,
including
unfavorable
changes
in
laws
and
governmental
policies,
civil
unrest,
or
other
events
beyond
Alcoa’s
control;
(j)
the
outcome
of
contingencies,
including
legal
proceedings,
government
investigations,
and
environmental
remediation;
(k)
the
business
or
financial
condition
of
key
customers,
suppliers,
and
business
partners;
(l)
adverse
changes
in
tax
rates
or
benefits;
(m)
adverse
changes
in
discount
rates
or
investment
returns
on
pension
assets;
(n)
the
impact
of
cyber
attacks
and
potential
information
technology
or
data
security
breaches;
and
(o)
the
other
risk
factors
summarized
in
Alcoa's
Form
10-K
for
the
year
ended
December
31,
2012
and
other
reports
filed
with
the
Securities
and
Exchange
Commission.
Alcoa
disclaims
any
obligation
to
update
publicly
any
forward-looking
statements,
whether
in
response
to
new
information,
future
events
or
otherwise,
except
as
required
by
applicable
law.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Some
of
the
information
included
in
this
presentation
is
derived
from
Alcoa’s
consolidated
financial
information
but
is
not
presented
in
Alcoa’s
financial
statements
prepared
in
accordance
with
U.S.
generally
accepted
accounting
principles
(GAAP).
Certain
of
these
data
are
considered
“non-GAAP
financial
measures”
under
SEC
rules.
These
non-GAAP
financial
measures
supplement
our
GAAP
disclosures
and
should
not
be
considered
an
alternative
to
the
GAAP
measure.
Reconciliations
to
the
most
directly
comparable
GAAP
financial
measures
and
management’s
rationale
for
the
use
of
the
non-GAAP
financial
measures
can
be
found
in
the
Appendix
to
this
presentation
and
on
our
website
at
www.alcoa.com
under
the
“Invest”
section.
Any
reference
during
the
discussion
today
to
EBITDA
means
adjusted
EBITDA,
for
which
we
have
provided
calculations
and
reconciliations
in
the
Appendix
and
on
our
website.


Putting Legacy Matters behind us, continuing Transformation
Non-cash
Goodwill
write-down
($1.7B)
for
legacy
acquisitions
in
smelting
Discrete
Tax
items
($361M)
Legacy
Legal
Matter
($243M)
Capital
projects
write-off
($13M)
Putting Legacy Matters behind us
Building out Value-Add Businesses & Lowering cost base of our Commodity Businesses
Today:
Value-add
businesses
account
for
57%
of
revenues
and
80%
of
segment
profits
Record
Downstream
results
(record
4th
quarter;
ATOI
up
20%
YOY)
Lower
cost
position
Upstream
and
nine
consecutive
quarters
of
improved
performance
Improved
Productivity
across
all
segments
(2013
$1.1B);
Record
Days
Working
Capital
(4
days
lower
=
$240M)
Strengthening
Balance
Sheet
($1.4B
cash
on
hand;
$8.3B
debt;
$6.9B
net
debt,
lowest
year-end
level
since
2006)
Investing
in
the
Future
(e.g.
Automotive,
Saudi
Arabia
JV,
Al
Lithium)
Annual
Earnings
increased
(excluding
special
items)
despite
lower
metal
prices
Repositioning the Company in the face of Headwinds
3
o[Alcoa logo]
th


William Oplinger
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
4
January 9, 2014
[Alcoa logo]
[Alcoa logo]


Income Statement Summary
See appendix for Adjusted Income reconciliation
5
o[Alcoa logo]


6
See appendix for Adjusted Income reconciliation
Special Items
o[Alcoa logo]


Market, volume, and cost headwinds lower earnings sequentially
7
See appendix for Adjusted Income reconciliation
Net Income excluding Special Items ($ Millions)
Market
-$26
Performance
-$6
Cost Headwinds
-$48
40
120
Currency
4
30
3Q 13
4Q 13
Cost
Increases
/ Other
38
Raw
Materials
3
Energy
13
Productivity
36
Price
/  Mix
10
Volume
32
LME
o[Alcoa logo]


See appendix for Free Cash Flow and Days Working Capital reconciliations
4
th
Quarter Cash Flow Overview
8
o[Alcoa logo]
($ Millions)
4Q12
3Q13
4Q13
Net Income (Loss)
$257
$44
($2,310)
DD&A
$363
$348
$350
Change in Working Capital
$536
($61)
$522
Pension Contributions
($46)
($173)
($108)
Taxes / Other Adjustments
($177)
$56
$2,466
Cash from Operations
$933
$214
$920
Dividends to Shareholders
($33)
($33)
($33)
Change in Debt
($692)
($5)
($14)
Contributions (Distributions) to Noncontrolling
Interest 
$15
($53)
($29)
Other Financing Activities
($2)
($2)
$11
Cash from Financing Activities
($712)
($93)
($65)
Capital Expenditures
($398)
($250)
($422)
Other Investing Activities
$605
($54)
($3)
Cash from Investing Activities
$207
($304)
($425)
4Q13 FCF
$498 million
$1.4 billion
of cash
4 Day DWC
reduction vs.
4Q 2012
4
th
Quarter 2013 Cash Flow Overview


Engineered Products & Solutions year-over-year ATOI increase of 20%
Any reference in our presentations to EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA, for which we have provided calculations and reconciliations in the appendix. See appendix
for Adjusted EBITDA reconciliation.
* Prior period amounts have been revised to conform to the current period presentation. See appendix for additional information.
9
o[Alcoa logo]
$ Millions
Revenue
up
4%
year-over-year
driven
by
strong
share
gains
across
all
markets
Record
4Q
ATOI
and
EBITDA
margin
4Q
EBITDA
margin
at
20.3%,up
2.3
percentage
points
year-over-year 
Quarterly
ATOI
up
20%
year-over-year
to
$168M
driven
by
productivity
and volume
Days
working
capital
improved
3
days
year-over-year
Aerospace
strong,
impacted
by
lower
U.S.
Defense
spare
parts
demand
Gradual
recovery
in
N.A.
Non-Residential
Construction
continues;
European
market
decline
is
slowing
Stronger
N.A.
Heavy
Duty
Truck
build
rates
offset
by
Europe
Softening
Global
Industrial
Gas
Turbine
market
Productivity
improvements
continue
ATOI
expected
to
be
up
8%-10%
sequentially
$ Millions
4Q 12
3Q 13
4Q 13
3
rd
Party Revenue
1,348
1,437
1,405
ATOI*
140
192
168
EBITDA Margin*
18.0%
22.5%
20.3%
4
th
Quarter Results
4
th
Quarter Business Highlights
1
st
Quarter Outlook
4
th
Quarter Performance Bridge
$168
4Q 13
-$5
Volume
-$6
Productivity
$12
3Q 13
-$25
$192
Cost Increase
Price / Mix
4Q13 Actual and 1Q14 Outlook -
EPS


See appendix for Adjusted EBITDA reconciliation. 
* Prior period amounts have been revised to conform to the current period presentation. See appendix for additional information.
Unfavorable volume and cost impact Global Rolled Products results
10
o[Alcoa logo]


Strong Alumina performance offsets negative market impacts
11
o[Alcoa logo]


Continued Primary productivity gains offset sequential cost increases
12
o[Alcoa logo]


Robust demand continues, regional premiums responding
13
o[Alcoa logo]


2013 Full Year Results
14
o[Alcoa logo]


Earnings rise 36% year-over-year despite $273M of market headwinds
15
See appendix for Adjusted Income reconciliation
Net Income excluding Special Items ($ Millions)
Market
-$273
Performance
+$842
Cost Headwinds
-$474
357
262
Price
/  Mix
32
Volume
57
Currency
172
LME
445
2012
2013
Cost
Increases
/ Other
507
Raw
Materials
62
Energy
29
Productivity
+36%
753
o[Alcoa logo]


Continued strong productivity; $1.1 billion captured in 2013
GPP:
Combined
Alumina
and
Primary
Metals
segments;
GRP:
Global
Rolled
Products;
EPS:
Engineered
Products
and
Solutions
*All figures are pretax and pre-minority interest.  2009/2010 represent net productivity; 2011-2013 represent gross productivity
16
268
356
742
2009
2,410
2013
1,117
12
481
2012
1,291
2011
1,099
2010
Year-over-year productivity* savings, $M and 2013 ideas by category
EPS (32%)
GRP (24%)
GPP (43%)
Other (1%)
Over $6.6B of
productivity
in 2009-2013
10,700
Asset Mgmt
Growth
Productivity
12,200
200
1,300
Current  number of
ideas in the system
o[Alcoa logo]


Achieved record low Days Working Capital
See appendix for days working capital reconciliation
17
o[Alcoa logo]


Strengthened our balance sheet; lowest year-end net debt since 2006
See appendix for Net Debt-to-Capital reconciliation
* Excludes goodwill impairment and deferred tax valuation allowances recorded in fourth quarter 2013
18
o[Alcoa logo]


Executed against targets to achieve Positive FCF in a tough environment
*Excludes goodwill impairment and deferred tax valuation allowances recorded in fourth quarter 2013
19
o[Alcoa logo]


2014 annual financial targets
The right actions drive growth and operational performance in 2014
Deliver
Operational
Performance
Drive Productivity Gains of $850M
Process productivity
Procurement savings
Overhead cost reductions
Invest in the
Future; Actively
Manage the
Base
Build Value-Add with Growth Capital of $500M
Invest in Saudi JV of $125M
Manage Sustaining Capital of $750M
Strengthen the
Balance Sheet
Generate Positive Free Cash Flow
Attain 30%-35% Debt-to-Capital
20
o[Alcoa logo]


Klaus Kleinfeld
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
21
January 9, 2014
[Alcoa logo]
[Alcoa logo]


Source: Alcoa analysis
North America
China
Global
Europe
7% to
8%
sales growth
2% to
3%    
sales growth
4% to
6%      
sales growth
8% to
12%
airfoil market
decline
6% to
10%  
prod growth
8% to
12%
sales growth
7% to
9%
sales growth
2% to
3%
sales growth
2% to
3%                            
sales decline
-1% to
3%    
prod flat/growth
6% to
10%
prod decline
2% to
5%   
prod growth
1% to
2%
sales decline
Aerospace
Automotive
Heavy Truck &
Trailer
Beverage Can
Packaging
Commercial Building
and Construction
Industrial Gas
Turbine
1% to
5%
prod growth
-1% to
3%     
prod flat/growth
3% to
4%                   
sales growth
1% to
4%
prod growth
-1% to
3%     
prod flat/growth
2014 Market Conditions
Alcoa End Markets: Current Assessment of 2014 vs. 2013
22
o[Alcoa logo]


Repositioning working: Growing value-add and lowering cost base
CRU Cost Model, Alcoa Analysis.
Any reference in our presentations to EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA, for which we have provided calculations and reconciliations in the appendix
23
o[Alcoa logo]


Trucking Industry Needs…
…and Drives Growth for Alcoa wheels
No
Mechanical
or
Chemical Cleaning
Corrosion
Resistant
Looks
New
Longer
58%
73%
Aluminum wheel innovation meets industry needs and drives value-add growth
Alcoa solutions for improved truck fuel efficiency and lowered maintenance cost drive Wheels sales growth
Regulatory Requirements
(1)
20%
Fuel
Efficiency
Improvement
20%
Lower
Greenhouse
Gas
Emissions
Improved Competiveness
Operating
Cost
Reduction
Payload Increase
Alcoa wheel sales and growth (%)
LvL ONE ®
-
Introduced in 2009
Light Weight & Flexible: LvL ONE ®
Low Maintenance: Dura-Bright ®
Lightest
Wheel
at
45
lbs
(41% lighter than steel; 8% lighter than avg. Al)
6X
Brighter
than
even
aluminum
competition
Two
sided
polished
finish
Allows
use
on
truck
and
trailer;
reduces
number
of
spare
parts
…Alcoa Technology Offers Solutions…
Dura-Bright ®
Oct’13: 10X Improved Corrosion
Other
LvL ONE®
Dura-Bright®
22%
CAGR
2009
2013
67%
of
sales
are
driven
by
proprietary
technology
(1)
Greenhouse
Gas
Emissions
and
Fuel
Efficiency
Standards
for
Medium
and
Heavy
Duty
Engines
and
Vehicles
-
2014
to
2018
24
o[Alcoa logo]


Capitalizing on historic Auto industry shift to lightweight vehicles
Sources:  Consumer Federation of America (CFA) survey April 2013; Ducker Worldwide
CAFE = Corporate Average Fuel Economy
25
o[Alcoa logo]


Smelter
Rolling Mill
Mine
Refinery
Phase 1
Phase 2
Saudi Arabia JV construction progressing as planned; world’s lowest cost
77%
complete
190kmt
production in 2013
550kmt
production in 2014
At full capacity in 2014
Lowest
cost
smelter
2%
point
reduction
on
the
smelting cost curve
First
hot
coil
in
4Q
2013
First auto
coil in 4Q 2014
First alumina 4Q 2014
Lowest
cost
refinery
2%
point
reduction
on
the refining cost curve
On track to provide
bauxite in 2014
93%
complete
Saudi Arabia JV construction update
100%
complete
52%
complete
26
o[Alcoa logo]


Repositioning accelerates with new three-year targets
CRU Cost Model, Alcoa Analysis.
Any reference in our presentations to EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA, for which we have provided calculations and reconciliations in the appendix
27
o[Alcoa logo]


2014 annual financial targets
The right actions drive growth and operational performance in 2014
Deliver
Operational
Performance
Drive Productivity Gains of $850M
Process productivity
Procurement savings
Overhead cost reductions
Invest in the
Future; Actively
Manage the
Base
Build Value-Add with Growth Capital of $500M
Invest in Saudi JV of $125M
Manage Sustaining Capital of $750M
Strengthen the
Balance Sheet
Generate Positive Free Cash Flow
Attain 30%-35% Debt-to-Capital
28
o[Alcoa logo]


Repositioning gaining traction and creating value for the future
Alcoa
Advantage
and
Disciplined
Execution
drive
profitable
growth
in
2014
Building
out
the
value-add
businesses
while
lowering
cost
base
in
the
commodity
businesses
Putting
legacy
matters
behind
us
29
o[Alcoa logo]


o[Alcoa logo]


Kelly Pasterick
Director, Investor Relations
Alcoa
390 Park Avenue
New York, NY 10022-4608
Telephone:  (212) 836-2674
www.alcoa.com
Additional Information
31
o[Alcoa logo]


Annual Sensitivity Summary
Currency Annual Net Income Sensitivity
+/-
$100/MT = +/-
$240 million
LME Aluminum Annual Net Income Sensitivity
Australian $
+/-
$11 million
per 0.01 change in USD / AUD
Brazilian $
+/-
$  3 million
per 0.01 change in BRL / USD
Euro €
+/-
$  2 million
per 0.01 change in USD / EUR
Canadian $
+/-
$  5 million
per 0.01 change in CAD / USD
Norwegian Kroner
+/-
$  5 million
per 0.10 change in NOK / USD
32
o[Alcoa logo]


Revenue Change by Market
33
0%
1%
(7%)
(6%)
(8%)
1%
(14%)
13%
(2%)
1%
4%
6%
2%
12%
(13%)
(8%)
(9%)
(17%)
4%
(14%)
18%
3%
6%
6%
7%
2%
12%
2%
15%
29%
Aerospace
Automotive
B&C
Comm. Transport
Industrial Products
IGT
Packaging
Distribution/Other
Alumina
Primary Metals
4Q’13 Third-Party Revenue
Sequential
Change
Year-Over-Year
Change
o[Alcoa logo]


Reconciliation of ATOI to Consolidated Net Income (Loss)
Attributable to Alcoa
34
(in millions)
4Q12
2012
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
2013
   Total segment ATOI*
$    
574 
1,357 
$    
351 
$    
304 
$    
338 
$     224 
$  1,217 
   Unallocated amounts (net of tax):
      Impact of LIFO
8
20
(2)
5
9
40
52
      Interest expense
(78)
(319)
(75)
(76)
(70)
(73)
(294)
      Noncontrolling interests
(15)
29
(21)
29
(20)
(29)
(41)
      Corporate expense
(87)
(282)
(67)
(71)
(74)
(72)
(284)
      Impairment of goodwill
(1,731)
(1,731)
      Restructuring and other charges
(56)
(75)
(5)
(211)
(108)
(283)
(607)
      Other*
(104)
(539)
(32)
(99)
(51)
(415)
(597)
   Consolidated net income (loss) attributable to
Alcoa
$     242
$     191
$     149
$    (119)
$       24
$ (2,339)
$ (2,285)
* On January 1, 2013, management revised the inventory-costing method used by certain locations within the Global Rolled Products and
Engineered Products and Solutions segments, which affects the determination of the respective segment’s profitability measure, ATOI. 
Management made the change in order to improve internal consistency and enhance industry comparability.  This revision does not impact the
consolidated results of Alcoa.  Segment information for all prior periods presented was revised to reflect this change.
o[Alcoa logo]


Reconciliation of Adjusted Income
35
o[Alcoa logo]


Reconciliation of Alcoa Adjusted EBITDA
o[Alcoa logo]


Reconciliation of Alumina Adjusted EBITDA
37
o[Alcoa logo]


Reconciliation of Primary Metals Adjusted EBITDA
38
o[Alcoa logo]


Reconciliation of Global Rolled Products Adjusted
EBITDA
39
o[Alcoa logo]


Reconciliation of Engineered Products and Solutions
Adjusted EBITDA
40
($ in millions)
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
4Q12
3Q13
4Q13
After-tax operating
income (ATOI)*
$     126
$     161
$     276
$     382
$     423
$     522
$     311
$     419
$     537
$     612
$     726
$     140
$     192
$     168
Add:
Depreciation,
depletion, and
amortization
166
168
160
152
163
165
177
154
158
158
159
40
40
40
Equity loss
(income)
6
(2)
(2)
(1)
Income taxes*
        57
        70
      120
      164
      184
      215
      138
        198
        258
        297
        348
        71
        91
        79
Other*
        11
      106
       (11)
         (2)
         (7)
          2
          1
          –
         (1)
         (9)
         (2)
         (9)
          –
         (2)
Adjusted EBITDA*
$     360
$     505
$     545
$      702
$     763
$     904
$     625
$     769
$     951
$  1,058
$  1,231
$     242
$     323
$     285
Third-party sales
$  3,905
$  4,283
$  4,773
$  5,428
$  5,834
$  6,199
$  4,689
$  4,584
$  5,345
$  5,525
$  5,733
$  1,348
$  1,437
$  1,405
Adjusted EBITDA
Margin*
  
9.2%
  
11.8%
  
11.4%
   
12.9%
  
13.1%
  
14.6%
  
13.3%
  
16.8%
  
17.8%
  
19.1%
  
21.5%
   
18.0%
  
22.5%
  
20.3%
Alcoa’s definition of Adjusted EBITDA (Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) is net margin plus an add-back for depreciation, depletion, and amortization.  Net margin is equivalent to Sales minus the
following items: Cost of goods sold; Selling, general administrative, and other expenses; Research and development expenses; and Provision for depreciation, depletion, and amortization.  The Other line in the table above includes
gains/losses on asset sales and other nonoperating items.  Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure.  Management believes that this measure is meaningful to investors because Adjusted EBITDA provides additional
information with respect to Alcoa’s operating performance and the Company’s ability to meet its financial obligations.  The Adjusted EBITDA presented may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other companies.
* On January 1, 2013, management revised the inventory-costing method used by certain locations within the Engineered Products and Solutions segment, which affects the determination of the segment’s profitability measure, ATOI. 
Management made the change in order to improve internal consistency and enhance industry comparability.  This revision does not impact the consolidated results of Alcoa.  Segment information for all prior periods presented was
revised to reflect this change.
o[Alcoa logo]


Reconciliation of Free Cash Flow
41
o[Alcoa logo]


Reconciliation of Free Cash Flow, con’t
42
o[Alcoa logo]


Days Working Capital
43
o[Alcoa logo]


Reconciliation of Net Debt
44
o[Alcoa logo]


Reconciliation of Debt-to-Capital
45
o[Alcoa logo]


Composition of Upstream Production Costs
Refining Cost Structure
Smelting Cost Structure
1
Natural gas information corresponds to Point Comfort, as Australia is priced on a rolling 16 quarter average
46
o[Alcoa logo]


1.0
6.6
25.5
6.4
4.2
2.1
2.0
2.0
1.1
10%
1%
5%
3%
7%
8%
8%
4%
5%
6%
2014E
52.8 mmt
(1)
Other includes Africa, E.Europe, Latin America ex Brazil, and Oceania
2014 Primary Aluminum Consumption (mmt), Annualized Growth (%) 
China
Europe
North America
North Asia
India
SE Asia
MENA
Russia
Brazil
Other ¹
1.9
Source: Alcoa estimates, Brook Hunt, CRU, Harbor 
2014 global aluminum demand growth outlook remains strong
2014 demand +7%
World ex China +4%
47
o[Alcoa logo]


48
Source: Alcoa analysis, Brook Hunt, CRU, CNIA, NBS, Chinese Customs
Alumina moves to surplus in 2014; aluminum market balanced
o[Alcoa logo]


Inventory is stable with LME cancelled warrants rising
49
o[Alcoa logo]


Regional premiums move higher
50
Source: Monthly average of daily prices -
Platts Metals Week
o[Alcoa logo]