EX-99 2 eeiexhibit_99.htm

Allegheny Energy

Edison Electric Institute
Financial Conference


November 5-8, 2006

 

Forward-Looking Statements

In addition to historical information, this presentation contains a number of "forward-looking
statements" as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.  Words such as
anticipate, expect, project, intend, plan, believe and words and terms of similar substance used in
connection with any discussion of future plans, actions or events identify forward-looking statements.  
These include statements with respect to: regulation and the status of retail generation service supply
competition in states served by Allegheny Energy's delivery business, Allegheny Power; the closing of
various agreements; financing plans; demand for energy and the cost and availability of raw materials,
including coal; provider-of-last resort and power supply contracts; results of litigation; results of
operations; internal controls and procedures; capital expenditures; status and condition of plants and
equipment; regulatory matters; and accounting issues. Forward-looking statements involve estimates,
expectations, and projections and, as a result, are subject to risks and uncertainties.  There can be no
assurance that actual results will not materially differ from expectations.  Actual results have varied
materially and unpredictably from past expectations. Factors that could cause actual results to differ
materially include, among others, the following: changes in the price of power and fuel for electric
generation; general economic and business conditions; changes in access to capital; complications or
other factors that render it difficult or impossible to obtain necessary lender consents or regulatory
authorizations on a timely basis; environmental regulations; the results of regulatory proceedings,
including proceedings related to rates; changes in industry capacity, development, and other activities
by Allegheny's competitors; changes in the weather and other natural phenomena; changes in the
underlying inputs and assumptions, including market conditions used to estimate the fair values of
commodity contracts; changes in laws and regulations applicable to Allegheny, its markets or its
activities; the loss of any significant customers and suppliers; dependence on other electric
transmission and gas transportation systems and their constraints on availability; changes in PJM,
including changes to participants rules and tariffs; the effect of accounting policies issued periodically
by accounting standard-setting bodies; and the continuing effects of global instability, terrorism and
war. Additional risks and uncertainties are identified and discussed in Allegheny Energy's reports and
registration statements filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These forward-looking
statements speak only as of the date of this document. Allegheny Energy undertakes no obligation to
update its forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after
the date of this document.

2

 

Non-GAAP Financial Measures

This presentation includes non-GAAP financial measures as defined in the
Securities and Exchange Commission’s Regulation G. Where noted, the
presentation shows certain financial information on an “as adjusted” basis, to
exclude the effect of certain items as described herein. By presenting “as adjusted”
results, management intends to provide investors with a better understanding of
the core results and underlying trends from which to consider past performance
and prospects for the future.

Users of this financial information should consider the types of events and
transactions for which adjustments have been made. “As adjusted” information
should not be considered in isolation or viewed as a substitute for, or superior to,
net income or other data prepared in accordance with GAAP as measures of our
operating performance or liquidity. In addition, the “as adjusted” information is not
necessarily comparable to similarly titled measures provided by other companies.

Pursuant to the requirements of Regulation G, we have attached a table that
reconciles the non-GAAP financial measures in this presentation to the most
directly comparable GAAP measures. The table is also available at
www.alleghenyenergy.com.

3

 

Allegheny Energy

Allegheny
Energy

Generation

Coal-fired, PJM

48.1 million MWH*

Delivery

1.6 million customers,

PA-MD-WV-VA

* 12 months ended December 31, 2005

4

 

Earnings Growth Drivers

Increase generation rates

Improve plant availability

Control O&M expense

Complete West Virginia rate case

Expand transmission system

Other growth catalysts

5

 

Pennsylvania POLR Rate

$ per MWH

Cumulative Increase in

Pre-Tax Operating Income

$ millions; estimates

Growth Driver:  
Increase Generation Rates

6

 

Growth Driver:
Increase Generation Rates

                                                                                                                                                      July                                                                                       January               

                                                                                                                                                      2007                                                                                        2009

State                                                                                                                            Virginia                                                                   Maryland

                                                                                                                                                      

MWH transitioning                                                      1.0 - 3.2 million*                 3.5 million

to market-based rates

Increase in pre-tax income               $20-60 million*                   $60 million

*  annualized                                                                                                     

7

 

2008

Goal

Supercritical Coal Units

Each 1% improvement provides benefit >$10 million

2006

Est.

Growth Driver:
Improve Plant Availability

2007

Goal

8

 

Achieve 91% Availability

Outage Factor

(supercritical units)

22%

24%

17%

16%

15%

9%

Reduce planned
outages

Reduce unplanned
outages

18%

9

 

2005

Ft. Martin 2

COMPLETED

PLANNED

Harrison 1

Harrison 3

Hatfield 1

Hatfield 3

Pleasants 2

Ft. Martin 1

Hatfield 2

Harrison 2

Pleasants 1

2006

2007

Improving Availability:
Conducting Extended Planned Outages

10

 

Unplanned Outage Factor

Units Which Completed Extended Outages

Planned Outages: Results

      Pre-outage           Post-outage

* Including transformer failure:  Harrison 1 = 10%, average = 6%.  Post-outage average is time weighted.

11

 

$700-730

Growth Driver:
Control O&M Expense

*     2005 = $775 after adjustment

($ millions)

12

 

Requested $100 million net increase

Fuel, purchased power: $126 million increase

Base rates: $26 million decrease

10% net increase (residential)

Requested reinstatement of fuel cost adjustment

Proposed ROE: 11.75%

Probable effective date: late May 2007

Growth Driver:
West Virginia Rate Case

13

 

Growth Driver:
Expand Transmission System

Allegheny

Energy

Located In the Heart of PJM

14

 

Growth Driver:
Expand Transmission System

2007: enhance near-term reliability

Cost: $70 million

By 2011: construct ~210-mile line

Cost:  over $850 million (preliminary estimate)

FERC approved incentive rate treatment,
including return during construction

Separate legal entity to own, construct

85% of costs recovered from other PJM
utilities

15

 

Approved Transmission Line

16

 

Potential for Additional
Transmission Investment

Most projects under
consideration pass
through Allegheny’s
service area

PJM to select best
solutions in early
2007

Under Consideration by PJM

for 2012-2021 Plan

17

 

                                      

        

Other Growth Catalysts

Projected PJM

Reserve Margin

Increasing marginal heat rate

Gas will more frequently impact PJM energy prices

Improving capacity values

16% PJM Target

18

 

Provides advance price signal for capacity needs

3-year forward auction market

Potentially significant benefits to Allegheny as POLR
contracts expire

FERC decision requested by late December 2006

Other Growth Catalysts

Proposed PJM Regional Pricing Model

19

 

Improve  
Environmental Performance

By 2010:

One of the cleanest coal fleets in the U.S.

2009

$500 – 550

Ft. Martin Scrubbers

2009

~$650

Hatfield Scrubbers

2008

$110

Pleasants Bypass


IN
SERVICE

       ESTIMATED
COST
($ Millions)

20

 

Improve
Environmental Performance

SO2 Emissions  

(thousands of tons)

70%

reduction

21

 

Improving financial results

Reduced debt

Improving credit statistics

Contracting generation and coal

2007 earnings growth drivers

Financial Review

22

 

Improving Financial Results

Earnings per Share

2003

2005

2004

2006

9 mos.

($2.80)

($0.37)

($1.83)

$0.47

$0.40

$0.94

$1.51

$1.46

As Reported

As Adjusted

23

 

Cash Flow
($ millions)

Cash from Operations

as reported

Free Cash Flow

(adjusted cash from operations

net of capital expenditures)

2006

9 mos.

2006

9 mos.

24

 

Debt Outstanding
($ billions)

*  $3.6 billion after $300 million maturity on October 1, 2006

25

 

Capital Expenditures
($ millions)

$307

~$1,000

~$500

Environmental –

other

Environmental –

securitized

All other

Transmission

26

 

Debt/EBITDA*

EBITDA/Interest*

*  Based on adjusted EBITDA and adjusted interest for 12-month periods.  Excludes
securitized debt and interest.

Credit Statistics:
Targets Remain Unchanged

27

 

Contracting Generation
and Coal

Generation Under Contract

% of Total Projected Output

Coal Under Contract

% of Fixed-Price Commitments*

* Excludes West Virginia

28

 

2007 Earnings Growth:
Key Drivers

*2007 vs. 2006 as adjusted

positive/negative

Other factors

10

Interest expense

(30)

Higher SO2 allowance costs

(45)

Higher coal prices

--

O&M expense

10

Plant availability

positive/negative

Market prices

10

Maryland customer credit

20

Virginia rates

60

West Virginia rate case

$50

Pennsylvania generation rates

CONTRIBUTION TO PRE-TAX INCOME*
($ millions; estimates)

29

 

Supplemental Information

30

 

Earnings (Loss) Per Share

0.56

0.65

Q3

0.22

0.18

Q2

$0.68

$0.67

2006:  Q1

0.94

0.40

Year

0.02

0.02

Q4

0.45

0.21

Q3

0.08

(0.12)

Q2

$0.39

$0.29

2005:  Q1

0.47

(1.83)

Year

0.22

0.48

Q4

0.37

(2.40)

Q3

(0.21)

(0.31)

Q2

$(0.03)

$0.25

2004:  Q1

(0.37)

(2.80)

Year

(0.14)

(0.11)

Q4

0.11

(0.40)

Q3

$(0.23)

(1.82)

Q2

$(0.32)

$(0.46)

2003:  Q1

As Adjusted

As Reported

31

 

EBITDA

286.3

286.3

Q3

193.6

193.6

Q2

$322.1

$322.1

2006:  Q1

890.2

888.6

Year

162.1

162.1

Q4

274.2

254.7

Q3

192.7

210.6

Q2

$261.3

$261.3

2005:  Q1

762.5

914.0

Year

221.8

312.7

Q4

243.2

243.2

Q3

122.0

110.3

Q2

$175.5

$247.8

2004:  Q1

634.9

156.8

Year

185.6

197.4

Q4

225.3

117.3

Q3

150.1

(203.5)

Q2

$92.9

$77.6

2003:  Q1


As Adjusted


As Reported

$ millions
Reported

32

 

Stock Price Performance
$100 Invested on July 1, 2003

AYE: $512

Dow Electrics:
$164

S&P: $141

The Road to Growth

33

 

Enhance Operating Performance

Financial

Performance

Engaged

Employees

Environmental

Stewardship

Shareholder

Value

Operational

Excellence

VISION:

“To Be a Top Performing Utility by
Year-End 2007”

Customer

Satisfaction

34

 

Generation and Marketing:
Overview

Capacity*

* Excludes Gleason peaking unit (held for sale).  Output for year ended December 31, 2005.

Capacity:  over 9,600 MW*

Primarily base load coal-fired plants

Located in PJM (13 states)

MWH Output*

Hydro

11%

Gas

9%

Supercritical
Coal

63%

Other Coal

16%

Oil

1%

Supercritical
Coal

79%

Gas

1%

Hydro

3%

Other Coal

17%

Coal

96%

35

 

Low-Cost Generation Fleet

Allegheny has an advantaged dispatch in PJM

PJM Dispatch Cost (Ozone Season): $/MWh

Allegheny Supercritical Coal Units

Dispatch Cost

Allegheny – Other Units

Assumptions:  natural gas delivered at approximately $8.00/mmBTU; coal at approximately $2.75/mmBTU; SO 2
at $670/ton; NOx at $1,750/ton.

36

 

World’s largest competitive power market

Over 51 million people

700 million MWH of energy annually

163,500 MW of capacity

Nation’s most liquid spot power market

Model for FERC’s proposed Standard Market
Design

Provides transactional flexibility: contracts not
required

Generation and Marketing:
PJM -- An Attractive Market

37

 

Growth Driver:
Transition to Market-Based Rates

Market: Current*

POLR: Maryland

Generation Rates

$ per MWH

* As of October 9, 2006

38

 

Improving Performance,
Reducing Spending

O&M and Capital*

Unplanned outage
factor

High
Performance

Under-investment

Re-investment

Reduce
spending

* Special maintenance O&M and capital for supercritical coal units.  Excludes environmental spending.

Goal

39

 

Exposure to
SO
2 Allowance Market

SO2 Emissions

in Excess of Allowances

(tons; estimated as of October 2006)

*    Approximately 75% of 2007 and 2008 short position is at  Monongahela
Power

2006                                                                                                       -0-

2007                                                                               40,000*

2008                                     40,000 - 80,000*

40

 

Coal:
Average Delivered Cost/Ton
Existing Contracts Only

41

 

Only 15% of Coal
Delivered by Rail

Note:  Some barge coal originates on short line railroads.

Rail

15%

Barge

49%

Conveyor

15%

Truck

21%

Coal Delivery Methods

2006

42

 

Delivery and Services:
Overview

In 4 states (PA, WV, MD,
VA)

1.6 million electric customers

Load growth: 2.0% compounded
annually (1995-2005; retail)

Allegheny Power

West Penn
Power

Monongahela
Power

Potomac
Edison

VIRGINIA

CHARLESTON

OHIO

HARRISBURG

MARYLAND

KENTUCKY

PENNSYLVANIA

CLEVELAND

BALTIMORE

PITTSBURGH

WASHINGTON, DC

WEST

VIRGINIA

43

 

Delivery and Services:  
Retail Revenue Mix, 2005

By State

By Customer Class

Residential

43%

Industrial

31%

Commercial

25%

Other

1%

44

 

Delivery and Services:  
Competitive Rates

National
Average =
10.62 ¢
/kWh

Residential Rates

¢/kWh as of January 1, 2006

45

 

1      Generation rate caps include rate increases in each year, 2006-2010.

2      One-time T&D increase can be requested through 2007. After 2007, can
request recovery of purchased power and annual incremental T&D
reliability and environmental costs, and one additional T&D cost
increase.

Regulatory Timeline

46

2006

2008

2009

2010

T&D

Generation

T&D

Gen. - Res.

Through 2007

2

Gen. - Com. & Ind.

T&D

and

Generation

Regulated

Capped through 2008

Market-based

Market-based

Regulated

Distribution capped through 2007

Increases through 2010

1

2007

Through 2010

2

State

WV

T&D

and

Generation

Regulated

PA

MD

VA