EX-99.(C)(4) 4 a19-9723_3ex99dc4.htm EX-99.(C)(4)

Exhibit (c)(4)

Special Committee Project ECHO Materials Prepared For: Strictly Private & Confidential February 22, 2019

 

GENERAL INFORMATION AND LIMITATIONS This presentation, and any oral or video presentation that supplements it, have been developed by and are proprietary to Sandler O’Neill & Partners, L.P. and were prepared exclusively for the benefit and internal use of the recipient. Neither the printed presentation nor the oral or video presentation that may supplement it, nor any of their contents, may be reproduced, distributed or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of Sandler O’Neill & Partners, L.P. The analyses contained herein rely upon information obtained from the recipient or from public sources, the accuracy of which has not been verified, and cannot be assured, by Sandler O’Neill & Partners, L.P. Moreover, many of the projections and financial analyses herein are based on estimated financial performance prepared by or in consultation with the recipient and are intended only to suggest reasonable ranges of results. Finally, the printed presentation is incomplete without any oral or video presentation that supplements it. Sandler O’Neill & Partners, L.P. prohibits employees from offering, directly or indirectly, favorable research, a specific rating or a specific price target, or offering or threatening to change research, a rating or a price target to a company as consideration or inducement for the receipt of business or compensation. Sandler O’Neill also prohibits research analysts from being compensated for their involvement in, or based upon, specific investment banking transactions. Sandler O’Neill & Partners, L.P. is a limited partnership, the sole general partner of which is Sandler O’Neill & Partners, Corp., a New York corporation. Sandler O’Neill & Partners, L.P. is a registered broker-dealer and a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc. Sandler O’Neill Mortgage Finance, L.P. is a wholly-owned indirect subsidiary of Sandler O’Neill & Partners, Corp. This material is protected under applicable copyright laws and does not carry any rights of publication or disclosure.

 

Table of Contents I. Preliminary Financial Analysis and Valuation 4 II. Analysis of Alternative Operating Structures 14

 

Recent Developments Due Diligence Update: • Since our last Special Committee call, we conducted additional due diligence calls with management and received the following information: – – – – – Supplemental information in support of the DAIS and Make-U-Safe investments Management’s statutory and GAAP financial forecasts for years 4 and 5 (2022 and 2023) Detailed break out of expense allocations across all of the legal entities Schedule P data for all of the insurance operating entities Carrying value for the private equity investments on Schedule BA of the statutory statements • Management has not been willing to provide any details on their financing plans for the proposed transaction beyond what was stated in original proposal and are not comfortable providing us with standalone financial projections for the Mutual Preliminary Valuation Work: • Contained in these materials is the following valuation related work: – – – – – – Detailed analysis of management’s projections Discounted cash flow analysis Analysis of current and historical trading values for ECHO’s peer group Historical financial comparison of ECHO to its peer group Analysis of prices paid in recent M&A transactions Pro forma financial consequences of proposed transaction to the Mutual • We have also spent considerable time analyzing an alternative business model that would involve ECHO remaining a publicly-traded company under a revamped arrangement with the Mutual. 3

 

I. Preliminary Financial Analysis and Valuation

 

Updated Management GAAP Financial Projections ($ in millions) Net Premiums Written Combined Ratio 104.0% 102.2% 101.5% 100.8% 100.4% 100.3% $762.1 $729.3 $697.9 $668.4 $658.8 $645.2 2 018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P 2 018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P Net Operating Income and Operating ROAE Shareholders’ Equity 7.1% 7.0% 7.0% 6.5% $667.4 $641.5 5.6% $617.6 $595.7 $46.4 $577.8 $565.8 $44.2 $42.2 4.3% $38.0 2 018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P 2 018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P Note: Expense ratio as shown above includes policyholder dividend ratio. 5 $32.1 $25.1 33.1% 34.2% 34.2% 34.2% 34.0% 33.9% 70.9% 68.0% 67.2% 66.6% 66.4% 66.4%

 

Property ($ in thousands) & Casualty Segment GAAP Financial Projections Revenues Net Premiums Earned Net Investment Income Net Realized Investment Gains Other Income (Loss) Total Revenues $ 495,446 34,069 (28,227) $ 504,525 35,600 - $ 506,780 37,451 - $ 529,024 38,306 - $ 552,830 39,018 - $ 577,707 40,442 - 8,444 7,474 7,474 7,474 7,474 7,474 $ 509,733 $ 547,599 $ 551,705 $ 574,803 $ 599,321 $ 625,622 Losses and Expenses Losses and Settlement Expenses Dividends to Policyholders Other Underwriting Expenses Interest Expense Other Expenses Total Losses and Expenses 332,921 9,209 169,836 654 331,977 10,595 177,552 683 328,393 10,642 178,842 683 338,046 11,110 186,785 683 352,153 11,057 194,360 683 367,999 11,554 202,250 683 1,202 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 $ 513,821 $ 522,007 $ 519,761 $ 537,823 $ 559,452 $ 583,686 Income before Income Tax Expense $ (4,088) $ 25,592 $ 31,944 $ 36,980 $ 39,870 $ 41,936 Net Premiums Earned Growth Loss & LAE Ratio Expense Ratio Dividend Ratio Combined Ratio 4.9% 67.2% 34.3% 1.8% 65.8% 35.2% 0.4% 64.8% 35.3% 4.4% 63.9% 35.3% 4.5% 63.7% 35.2% 4.5% 63.7% 35.0% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 103.3% 103.1% 102.2% 101.3% 100.9% 100.7% 6 Selected Financial Metrics For the Year Ended December 31, 2018A2019P2020P2021P2022P2023P

 

Reinsurance Segment ($ in thousands) GAAP Financial Projections Revenues Net Premiums Earned Net Investment Income Net Realized Investment Gains Other Income (Loss) Total Revenues $ 149,736 13,523 (12,935) $ 154,281 14,400 - $ 161,599 15,149 - $ 168,871 15,494 - $ 176,471 15,782 - $ 184,412 16,358 - 715 - - - - - $ 151,039 $ 168,681 $ 176,748 $ 184,365 $ 192,253 $ 200,770 Losses and Expenses Losses and Settlement Expenses Dividends to Policyholders Other Underwriting Expenses Interest Expense Other Expenses Total Losses and Expenses 124,238 - 34,791 - 116,019 - 37,445 - 121,038 - 39,210 - 126,484 - 40,975 - 132,000 - 42,819 - 137,940 - 44,745 - - - - - - - $ 159,029 $ 153,464 $ 160,248 $ 167,459 $ 174,819 $ 182,686 Income before Income Tax Expense $ (7,990) $ 15,217 $ 16,500 $ 16,906 $ 17,435 $ 18,085 Net Premiums Earned Growth Loss & LAE Ratio Expense Ratio Dividend Ratio Combined Ratio 11.1% 83.0% 23.2% 3.0% 75.2% 24.3% 4.7% 74.9% 24.3% 4.5% 74.9% 24.3% 4.5% 74.8% 24.3% 4.5% 74.8% 24.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 106.2% 99.5% 99.2% 99.2% 99.1% 99.1% 7 Selected Financial Metrics For the Year Ended December 31, 2018A2019P2020P2021P2022P2023P

 

GAAP Financial Projections – Segment Breakdown NPW Mix 2019E Est. Shareholders’ Equity Mix 2019E Est. Net Income Mix 2019E Rei ns ura nce 24.1% Rei ns ura nce 38.1% Rei ns urance 37.3% P&C 61.9% P&C 62.7% P&C 75.9% Est. ROAE 2019E (1) Including holding company expenses and shareholders’ equity. 8 P&C Segment 6.1% Reinsurance Segment 5.9% Blended (1) 5.6%

 

Summary of ECHO Analyst Estimates ECHO Analyst Coverage Sandler O'Neill & Partners (1) Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Dowling Partners (1) Paul Newsome Christopher Campbell Aaron Woomer 12/21/18 2/8/19 1/21/19 $1.40 1.45 1.40 $1.53 1.60 1.50 $33.00 37.00 NA Hold Hold Hold (1) Not updated following Q4 2018 earnings release. 9 Management Projections $1.47 $1.73 Mean $1.42 $1.54 Date of EPS Target Investment Bank Analyst Last Report 2019E 2020E Price Recommendation

 

Updated Discounted Cash Flow Analysis Selected Metrics Net Present Value Calculation and Sensitivity Analysis 2023 Book Value per Share P/B Exit Multiple 2023 Terminal Value PV of Terminal Value (@ 9% Disc. Rate) PV of Dividends (@ 9% Disc. Rate) Net Present Value Implied P/B Multiple Discount Rate $ 29.92 1.25x $ 37.40 2023 Earnings per Share P/E Exit Multiple 2023 Terminal Value PV of Terminal Value (@ 9% Disc. Rate) PV of Dividends (@ 9% Disc. Rate) Net Present Value Implied P/E Multiple (2019E) Discount Rate $ 2.09 17.5x $ 36.51 $ 24.31 $ 3.58 $ 23.73 $ 3.58 $ 27.89 $ 27.31 1.07x 18.5x P/B Exit Multiple P/E Exit Multiple Source: Management projections. 10 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 15.0x 17.5x 20.0x 24.97 23.92 22.92 28.52 $ 27.31 26.16 32.07 30.70 29.39 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 1.00x 1.25x 1.50x 24.04 23.03 22.07 29.13 $ 27.89 26.71 34.22 32.75 31.36 P/E Exit P/B Exit For the Year Ended December 31, '19-'23 2018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P CAGR Dividends per Share $ 0.89 PV of Dividends (@ 9% Disc. Rate) Ending Book Value per Share $ 26.18 Earnings per Share $ (0.35) $ 0.92 $ 0.92 $ 0.92 $ 0.92 $ 0.92 0.0% 3.2% 9.1% $ 0.84 $ 0.77 $ 0.71 $ 0.65 $ 0.60 $ 26.42 $ 27.15 $ 27.96 $ 28.95 $ 29.92 $ 1.47 $ 1.73 $ 1.92 $ 2.00 $ 2.09

 

Trading Statistics of Selected Public Peers Travelers Companies, Inc. Cincinnati Financial Corporation W. R. Berkley Corporation American Financial Group, Inc. Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. Selective Insurance Group, Inc. State Auto Financial Corporation Employers Holdings, Inc. United Fire Group, Inc. Donegal Group Inc. TRV CINF WRB AFG THG SIGI STFC EIG UFCS DGICA $ 129.74 85.95 82.59 99.85 118.75 66.99 34.71 46.00 49.54 13.50 $ 31,566 12,604 9,017 8,084 4,939 3,592 1,471 1,375 1,257 373 3.3% 8.2% 7.0% -3.2% 7.2% 4.4% 4.5% -1.4% -0.8% 0.3% 1.49x 1.79x 1.85x 1.79x 1.70x 2.20x 1.75x 1.48x 1.40x 0.92x 1.84x 1.79x 1.91x 1.89x 1.81x 2.21x NM 1.59x 1.44x 0.93x 14.0x 49.1x 16.5x 17.1x 13.1x 22.3x NM 10.8x 45.9x NM 11.8x 24.7x 21.3x 11.5x 14.8x 16.7x 18.8x 16.7x 34.2x 15.0x 11.2x 23.7x 20.0x 11.1x 13.0x 15.8x 16.5x 17.0x 26.8x 12.6x 9 4 4 4 4 5 3 3 1 2 11.0% 3.6% 12.0% 10.0% 13.2% 10.5% 1.5% 14.4% 2.9% -7.8% 12.4% 7.1% 9.0% 14.6% 11.9% 12.6% 8.4% 8.6% 4.1% 7.6% 12.8% 7.0% 8.9% 14.4% 12.6% 12.1% 9.4% 9.0% 5.2% 7.0% 2.37% 2.61% 0.73% 1.60% 2.02% 1.19% 1.15% 1.74% 2.50% 4.22% A++ A+ A+ A+ A A A-A- A A P/TB versus 2019E ROAE Regression Analysis 2.50x 2.00x CHO THG 1.50x 1.00x 0.50x 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 2019E ROAE 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% Unless otherwise noted, trading multiples are based on reported financial metrics as of FY2018. ECHO 2019E and 2020E metrics are based on management’s forecast, while peer metrics are based on analyst estimates. 11 Price/Tangible Book Value E 1.46x SIGI CINF STFC WRB TRV AFG EIG ECHO @ $30/Share 5.6% y = 6.4231x + 1.1001 R² = 0.3571 Median 3.9% 1.73x 1.81x 16.8x 16.7x 16.1x 4 10.2% 8.8% 9.2% 1.88% Mean 2.9% 1.64x 1.71x 23.6x 18.6x 16.8x 4 7.1% 9.6% 9.8% 2.01% ECHO $ 32.22 $ 688 34.3% 1.23x 1.23x NM 21.9x 18.6x 3 -1.3% 5.6% 6.5% 2.86% A ECHO (Pre-Propsal) $ 23.99 $ 513 0.92x 0.92x NM 16.3x 13.8x 3 ECHO (Proposal) $ 30.00 $ 641 1.15x 1.15x NM 20.4x 17.3x 3 Trading Metrics Closing Market Price Chg. Current Stock Price as a Multiple of Current A.M. Stock Price Cap. Since Tangible LTM 2019E 2020E # of 2019E ROAE ROAE ROAE Dividend Best Company Ticker (2/20/19) ($M) 11/15/2018 BVPS BVPS EPS EPS EPS EPS Est. LTM 2019E 2020E Yield Rating

 

ECHO’s Five-Year Trading History 5-Year Price/Book Multiples 5-Year Price/Earnings Multiples 3 5.0x 1 .80x 1.64x 1.55x 1 .60x 3 0.0x 1 .40x 2 5.0x 1.23x 1 .20x 23.6x 2 0.0x 1 .00x NM (1) 0 .80x 1 5.0x 14.8x 0 .60x 1 0.0x 0 .40x 5 .0x 0 .20x 0 .00x 0 .0x ECHO Peers SNL P&C ECHO Peers SNL P&C As of 2/20/2019. (1) Not meaningful as ECHO has negative net income for 2018. As of 2/6/2019 (prior to the release of 12/31/2018 financials results), ECHO traded at a 17.1x price/earnings multiple. 12 5-Year Average: ECHO:14.1x Peers:16.0x SNL P&C: 15.9x As of 11/15/2018: ECHO:12.8x Peers:17.8x SNL P&C:11.8x 5-Year Average: ECHO:0.99x Peers:1.33x SNL P&C: 1.37x As of 11/15/2018: ECHO:0.90x Peers:1.58x SNL P&C:1.49x Over the last 5 years, ECHO has traded at a 26% discount to the selected peer group and 28% discount to the universe of public P&C companies on a price/book basis Over the last 5 years, ECHO has traded at a 12% discount to the selected peer group and 11% discount to the universe of public P&C companies on a price/earnings basis.

 

Multiples Paid in Acquisitions of Publicly-Traded P&C Insurance M&A Transactions ($ in millions) Stock Value Earnings 08/28/18 Apollo Global Management Aspen Insurance Holdings $42.75 $2,603 100.0% 0.0% 1.11x NM 17.1% 6.6% 08/22/18 Hartford Financial Services Navigators Group 70.00 2,151 100.0% 0.0% 1.69 34.5x 8.9% 18.8% 03/19/18 Fidelity National Financial Stewart Information Services 50.20 1,207 49.8% 50.2% 1.77 24.4 31.6% 30.9% 03/05/18 AXA XL Group 57.60 15,388 100.0% 0.0% 1.50 NM 33.0% 52.9% 03/01/18 Investor group AmTrust Financial Services 14.75 1,390 100.0% 0.0% 1.02 14.8 45.3% 46.3% 02/13/18 Kemper Corporation Infinity Property and Casualty 121.01 1,324 42.6% 57.4% 1.84 29.5 26.0% 15.2% 01/22/18 AIG Validus Holdings 68.00 5,536 100.0% 0.0% 1.54 NM 45.5% 45.0% 07/26/17 Markel Corporation State National Companies 21.00 923 100.0% 0.0% 2.76 16.4 36.5% 43.5% 05/02/17 Intact Financial Corporation OneBeacon Insurance Group 18.10 1,732 100.0% 0.0% 1.66 18.3 13.9% 13.1% Note: Includes transactions since 1/1/17. Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence. 13 High 2.76x 34.5x 45.5% 52.9% Mean 1.65 23.0 28.7% 30.3% Median 1.66 21.3 31.6% 30.9% Low 1.02 14.8 8.9% 6.6% Announce Deal Value Aggregate Mix of Consideration Equity Value as a Multiple Date Acquirer Target Per Share Equity Value Cash Common GAAP Book GAAP LTM Premium Paid (%) 1-Day 30-Day

 

II. Analysis of Alternative Operating Structures

 

Benchmarking – GAAP Operating Statistics of Selected Public Peers Travelers Companies, Inc. Cincinnati Financial Corporation W. R. Berkley Corporation American Financial Group, Inc. Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. Selective Insurance Group, Inc. State Auto Financial Corporation Employers Holdings, Inc. United Fire Group, Inc. Donegal Group Inc. 4.0% 5.2% 3.2% 8.5% -0.7% 6.8% 2.6% 1.8% 6.3% 6.9% 2.9% 3.6% 3.7% 7.0% -1.3% 6.3% 2.0% 2.0% 4.1% 7.1% 3.4% 3.9% 4.4% 4.9% 3.5% 2.7% 3.2% 2.9% 2.9% 2.6% 61.7% 64.2% 61.6% 63.6% 63.3% 59.6% 69.8% 59.6% 68.1% 69.5% 31.1% 30.9% 33.1% 30.8% 33.7% 34.3% 34.5% 32.3% 31.5% 32.9% 92.8% 95.1% 94.8% 94.4% 96.9% 93.9% 104.3% 91.9% 99.6% 102.4% 4.4% 5.3% 6.3% 1.6% 3.3% 8.1% 0.6% 11.3% NA NA 7.3% 9.5% 9.5% 6.7% 7.2% 10.2% 2.5% 12.9% NA NA 12.0% 7.3% 9.0% 11.2% 8.2% 11.3% 3.0% 10.4% 5.7% 1.9% 27.7% 66.1% 30.4% 57.2% 44.6% 22.4% 66.5% 13.1% 110.6% 110.2% CAGRs and averages are calculated based on reported financial metrics as of FY2018. 15 ECHO - P&C Segment 2019E -2.7% 65.8% 37.3% 103.1% ECHO - P&C Segment 4.8% 66.3% 34.1% 100.4% ECHO 4.4% 3.1% 3.0% 68.4% 32.0% 100.4% 2.8% 5.6% 6.2% 38.1% Median 4.6% 3.7% 3.3% 63.4% 32.6% 94.9% 4.8% 8.4% 8.6% 50.9% Mean 4.5% 3.8% 3.4% 64.1% 32.5% 96.6% 5.1% 8.2% 8.0% 54.9% Income Statement Metrics Balance Sheet and Return Metrics 5-Year CAGR 5-Year Average 5-Year CAGR 5-Year Average NPW Revenue Net Invest. Loss Expense Combined BVPS incl. Op. Dividend Company Growth Growth Yield Ratio Ratio Ratio BVPS Dividends ROAE Payout Ratio

 

Key Assumptions • • A new 30% quota share agreement between Mutual and ECHO replaces the existing pooling agreement Ceding commission from ECHO to Mutual designed to achieve a 95% combined ratio for ECHO’s P&C segment each year, implying an expense ratio of 28% in 2019 • No change to the reinsurance segment’s financial projections • New management team hired at ECHO to manage the Company’s operations resulting in an additional pre-tax expense of $2.5 MM; assumed to grow at 3% annually • Shareholder dividend payout ratio assumed to be 50% each year over the projection period 16

 

Quota ($ in millions) Share Alternative – GAAP Financial Projections Combined Ratio Net Operating Income and Operating ROAE 10.8% 10.7% 10.5% 10.1% 10.0% 104.0% 96.4% 96.4% 96.4% 96.4% 96.4% $71.9 $69.0 $67.6 $65.5 $62.6 2 018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P 2 018A2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P Shareholders’ Equity Target Combined Ratio Sensitivity Analysis Combined Ratio $734.1 $698.1 2023 BVPS $663.6 $629.8 $597.1 $565.8 2019-2023 Avg. Op. ROAE 2018-2023 BVPS CAGR 2 018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P 17 93.0% 95.0% 97.0% $ 33.89 11.6% 5.3% $ 32.91 10.4% 4.7% $ 31.94 9.2% 4.1% 4.3% $25.1 33.1% 28.4% 29.2% 29.8% 30.0% 30.0% 70.9% 68.0% 67.2% 66.6% 66.4% 66.4%

 

Quota ($ in millions) Share Alternative – Comparison to Status Quo Combined Ratio Operating Earnings per Share $3.24 $3.12 $3.07 $2.99 $2.88 102.2% 101.5% 100.8% 100.4% 100.3% $2.09 $2.00 $1.92 $1.73 $1.47 96.4% 96.4% 96.4% 96.4% 96.4% 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P Statu s Quo Quota Share Scenario Status Quo Quota Share Scenario Operating Return on Average Equity Book Value + Cumulative Dividends per Share (1) 10.8% 10.7% 10.5% 10.1% 10.0% $40.56 $37.54 7.0% 7.1% 7.0% $34.51 6.5% 5.6% $31.64 $28.74 $34.52 $32.63 $30.72 $28.99 $27.34 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P Statu s Quo Quota Share Scenario Status Quo Quota Share Scenario (1) Cumulative dividends paid beginning on 1/1/2019. 18

 

Quota Share Alternative – Discounted Cash Flow Analysis Selected Metrics Net Present Value Calculation and Sensitivity Analysis 2023 Book Value per Share P/B Exit Multiple 2023 Terminal Value PV of Terminal Value (@ 9% Disc. Rate) PV of Dividends (@ 9% Disc. Rate) Net Present Value Implied P/B Multiple Discount Rate $ 32.91 1.25x $ 41.14 2023 Earnings per Share P/E Exit Multiple 2023 Terminal Value PV of Terminal Value (@ 9% Disc. Rate) PV of Dividends (@ 9% Disc. Rate) Net Present Value Implied P/E Multiple (2019E) Discount Rate $ 3.24 17.5x $ 56.61 $ 26.74 $ 5.92 $ 36.79 $ 5.92 $ 32.66 $ 42.72 1.25x 14.8x P/B Exit Multiple P/E Exit Multiple 19 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 15.0x 17.5x 20.0x 39.11 37.46 35.90 44.61 $ 42.72 40.92 50.11 47.97 45.94 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 1.00x 1.25x 1.50x 28.48 27.31 26.20 34.08 $ 32.66 31.31 39.68 38.01 36.42 P/B Exit P/E Exit For the Year Ended December 31, '19-'23 2018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P CAGR Dividends per Share $ 0.89 PV of Dividends (@ 9% Disc. Rate) Ending Book Value per Share $ 26.18 Earnings per Share $ (0.35) $ 1.44 $ 1.49 $ 1.54 $ 1.56 $ 1.62 3.0% 4.8% 3.0% $ 1.32 $ 1.26 $ 1.19 $ 1.11 $ 1.05 $ 27.30 $ 28.71 $ 30.04 $ 31.51 $ 32.91 $ 2.88 $ 2.99 $ 3.07 $ 3.12 $ 3.24

 

Impact of Quota Share Scenario on the Mutual Pre-Tax Impact of Increase in Expenses After-Tax Impact of Increase in Expenses After-Tax Impact of Lower Investment Income After-Tax Incremental Dividends from ECHO Total Net Income Impact Cumu. Impact on Unassigned Surplus Impact on Carrying Value of ECHO Net Impact on on Capital & Surplus Incremental Economic Value of Ownership of ECHO Net Economic Impact on on Capital & Surplus $ (40,825) $ (32,252) (380) $ (36,437) $ (28,785) (759) $ (33,368) $ (26,361) (1,417) $ (32,381) $ (25,581) (2,014) $ (32,982) $ (26,056) (2,598) (1) (2) 5,168 5,756 6,196 6,484 7,095 $ (27,463) (27,463) 12,580 $ (23,789) (51,252) 20,729 $ (21,581) (72,834) 26,863 $ (21,111) (93,944) 32,307 $ (21,558) (115,503) 37,360 (3) $ (14,884) $ (30,523) $ (45,971) $ (61,637) $ (78,142) 162,204 171,257 180,924 190,843 201,195 (4) $ 147,320 $ 140,734 $ 134,953 $ 129,205 $ 123,053 Quota Share Scenario Market Value of Mutual's Ownership of ECHO Carrying Value of Mutual's Ownership of ECHO Difference 492,591 519,595 547,473 575,952 605,615 310,486 328,433 346,434 364,730 383,715 $ 182,106 $ 191,162 $ 201,040 $ 211,223 $ 221,900 Imputed Stock Price Status Quo Quota Share Scenario $ 26.42 $ 40.95 $ 27.15 $ 43.06 $ 27.96 $ 45.07 $ 28.95 $ 47.27 $ 29.92 $ 49.37 (4) (4) Notes: (1) Assumes 3.50% investment yield on incremental unassigned surplus. (2) Represents 55% of ECHO dividends paid, net of tax. Assumes 21% tax rate and 80% dividend received deduction. (3) Represents 55% of incremental capital & surplus under the Quota Share scenario. (4) Assumes P/B multiple of 1.0x for Status Quo and 1.5x for Quota Share Scenario 20 For the Year Ended December 31, 2019P2020P2021P2022P2023PNotes Quota Share Scenario

 

Impact of Transaction ($ in millions) on the Mutual’s Statutory Balance Sheet Transaction Assumptions Assets Current Carrying Value of ECHO Surplus Notes in ECHO Cash All Other Invested Assets Total Cash and Invested Assets Admitted DTA Uncollected and Deferred Premiums EDP Equipment and Software Admissible Goodwill All Other Assets Total Assets Liabilities Loss and LAE Reserves Unearned Premium Reserve All Other Liabilities Total Liabilities Capital & Surplus Surplus Notes Capital Stock, Contributed and Unassigned Surplus Surplus as Regards Policyholders Total Liabilities & Capital and Surplus Selected Metrics Total Shares Outstanding Shares Owned by Mutual Shares Owned by Outside Investors x Purchase Price Per Share Total Purchase Price of Non-Mutual Shares Current Carrying Value Total Statutory Book Value of ECHO 21.615 11.772 $ 278 25 105 $ - - 25 $ (278) (25) - $ - - 130 9.843 $ 30.00 $ 295 $ 278 $ 510 2,258 1,505 (190) 3,573 $ 2,666 22 601 5 - $ 1,530 10 65 - - $ (493) - $ 3,703 32 666 5 63 Other Investments at ECHO $ 7.8 - 63 163 19 - 182 Sources and Uses of Funds $ 3,457 $ 1,624 $ (430) $ 4,651 New Surplus Notes Liquidation of Investments Total $ 100 198 1,231 562 231 743 260 94 - - - 1,974 821 425 $ 298 $ 2,023 $ 1,097 $ - $ 3,120 Acquisition of Non-SIGNAL Shares Estimated Transaction Costs Total $ 295 3 - 25 75 100 $ 298 1,434 502 (505) 1,431 $ 1,434 $ 527 $ (430) $ 1,531 $ 3,457 $ 1,624 $ (430) $ 4,651 Cash Outlay Admissible Goodwill Goodwill Write-off NPW/C&S NPW NPW/C&S Loss Reserves / C&S $ 1,197 1.04x 1.06x $ 634 1.26x 1.48x $ 1,831 1.28x 1.38x • $100 MM in new surplus notes issued by the Mutual to finance the purchase of ECHO’s shares not currently owned by the Mutual and the remainder of the funds raised through liquidation of invested assets Note: The Mutual’s NPW/C&S calculated by excluding carrying value of ECHO from the C&S. 21 Purchase Price Per Share $ 30.00$ 36.00$ 42.00 $ 198$ 257$ 316 $ 63$ 122$ 135 $ -$ -$ 46 1.28x1.28x1.32x Uses Sources 12/31/2018 12/31/2018 Purchase Pro-Forma Mutual ECHO Adjustments Combined

 

Illustrative Impact of Transaction on the Mutual’s Statement ($ in millions) Statutory Income After-Tax Adjustments to Mutual's Statutory Net Income Less: Shareholder Dividends from ECHO Less: Interest on Existing Surplus Notes Less: Elimination of Allocated Executive Costs to ECHO Add: Elimination of Public Company Costs Less: Underwriting Income on Intercompany Reinsurance Add: Net Income of ECHO Less: Interest on New Surplus Notes (@6.0%) Less: Forgone Income on Cash Outlay (@3.5%) Incremental Impact on Net Income of Mutual % of Mutual's 2018 Stat Net Income Excl. Realized Inv. Gains ($67.1M) $ (6.8) (0.5) (1.0) 0.9 (2.0) 34.5 (4.7) $ (6.8) (0.5) (1.0) 0.9 (1.9) 38.0 (4.7) (5.3) (5.4) $ 15.0 23.7% $ 18.3 29.0% 22 2019E2020E

 

Appendix A – Management Projections

 

Historical ($ in thousands) and Projected Updated Management GAAP Financials 24 For the Year Ended December 31, 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P Revenues Net Premiums Earned Net Investment Income Net Realized Investment Gains Other Income (Loss) Total Revenues Losses and Expenses Losses and Settlement Expenses Dividends to Policyholders Other Underwriting Expenses Interest Expense Other Expenses Total Losses and Expenses Income before Income Tax Expense Income Tax Net Income Earnings per Share Weighted Average Shares Outstanding $ 570,266 $ 592,408 $ 607,158 $ 645,183 45,582 47,490 45,479 47,637 6,153 4,074 6,556 (41,252) 1,725 1,011 (348) 9,159 $ 658,806 $ 668,379 $ 697,895 $ 729,301 $ 762,119 50,000 52,600 53,800 54,800 56,800 - - - - - 7,474 7,474 7,474 7,474 7,474 $ 623,726 $ 644,983 $ 658,845 $ 660,727 370,736 386,897 421,969 457,159 7,705 13,800 7,610 9,209 170,602 178,015 185,716 204,627 337 337 337 654 2,690 2,727 3,397 3,754 $ 716,280 $ 728,453 $ 759,169 $ 791,575 $ 826,393 447,997 449,431 464,531 484,153 505,940 10,595 10,642 11,110 11,057 11,554 214,997 218,052 227,759 237,178 246,995 683 683 683 683 683 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,700 3,700 $ 552,070 $ 581,776 $ 619,029 $ 675,403 $ 677,971 $ 682,508 $ 707,782 $ 736,770 $ 768,871 $ 71,656 $ 63,207 $ 39,816 $ (14,676) 21,494 17,004 578 (7,208) $ 38,309 $ 45,944 $ 51,387 $ 54,804 $ 57,521 6,255 7,972 9,175 10,607 11,150 $ 50,162 $ 46,203 $ 39,238 $ (7,468) $ 32,054 $ 37,973 $ 42,212 $ 44,198 $ 46,371 $ 2.43 $ 2.20 $ 1.84 $ (0.35) 20,622 21,006 21,326 21,549 $ 1.47 $ 1.73 $ 1.92 $ 2.00 $ 2.09 21,743 21,905 22,013 22,120 22,228 Selected Financial Metrics Net Premiums Earned Growth Loss & LAE Ratio Expense Ratio Dividend Ratio Combined Ratio Effective Tax Rate 5.5% 3.9% 2.5% 6.3% 65.0% 65.3% 69.5% 70.9% 29.9% 30.0% 30.6% 31.7% 1.4% 2.3% 1.3% 1.4% 2.1% 1.5% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 68.0% 67.2% 66.6% 66.4% 66.4% 32.6% 32.6% 32.6% 32.5% 32.4% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 96.3% 97.7% 101.3% 104.0% 30.0% 26.9% 1.5% 49.1% 102.2% 101.5% 100.8% 100.4% 100.3% 16.3% 17.4% 17.9% 19.4% 19.4% Return on Average Equity 9.8% 8.6% 6.8% -1.3% 5.6% 6.5% 7.0% 7.0% 7.1%

 

Historical ($ in thousands) and Projected Updated Management GAAP Financials 25 For the Year Ended December 31, 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P Stockholder's Equity Rollforward Beginning Stockholders' Equity Plus: Net Income Less: Dividends Paid to Stockholders Change in Other Comprehensive Income Other (Plug) Ending Stockholders' Equity Dividends per Shares Dividend Payout Ratio Basic Book Value per Share ($) $ 502,886 $ 524,938 $ 553,342 $ 603,846 50,162 46,203 39,238 (7,468) (14,174) (16,196) (17,998) (19,121) (23,229) (12,352) 25,530 (15,530) 9,293 10,749 3,734 4,055 $ 565,782 $ 577,832 $ 595,652 $ 617,612 $ 641,459 32,054 37,973 42,212 44,198 46,371 (20,004) (20,153) (20,252) (20,351) (20,450) - - - - - - - - - - $ 524,938 $ 553,342 $ 603,846 $ 565,782 $ 0.69 $ 0.77 $ 0.84 $ 0.89 28.3% 35.1% 45.9% NM $ 25.26 $ 26.07 $ 28.14 $ 26.18 $ 577,832 $ 595,652 $ 617,612 $ 641,459 $ 667,380 $ 0.92 $ 0.92 $ 0.92 $ 0.92 $ 0.92 62.4% 53.1% 48.0% 46.0% 44.1% $ 26.42 $ 27.15 $ 27.96 $ 28.95 $ 29.92

 

Appendix B – Quota Share Alternative Projections

 

Quota Share ($ in thousands) Alternative – Historical and Projected GAAP Financials 27 Quota Share Scenario For the Year Ended December 31, 2015A2016A2017A2018A2019P2020P2021P2022P2023P Revenues Net Premiums Earned Net Investment Income Net Realized Investment Gains Other Income (Loss) Total Revenues Losses and Expenses Losses and Settlement Expenses Dividends to Policyholders Other Underwriting Expenses Allocation of Mutual's Exec. Compensation Incremental Exec. Compensation Interest Expense Other Expenses Total Losses and Expenses Income before Income Tax Expense Income Tax Net Income Earnings per Share Weighted Average Shares Outstanding $ 570,266$ 592,408$ 607,158$ 645,183 45,58247,49045,47947,637 6,1534,0746,556(41,252) 1,7251,011(348)9,159 $ 658,806$ 668,379$ 697,895$ 729,301$ 762,119 50,33753,53555,20356,59658,959 -----7,4747,4747,4747,4747,474 $ 623,726$ 644,983$ 658,845$ 660,727 370,736386,897421,969457,159 7,70513,8007,6109,209 170,602178,015184,528203,359 1,1881,268 ----337337337654 2,6902,7273,3973,754 $ 716,617$ 729,387$ 760,571$ 793,371$ 828,552 447,997449,431464,531484,153505,940 10,59510,64211,11011,05711,554 174,171181,615194,392204,798214,014 -----2,5002,5752,6522,7322,814 683683683683683 3,7003,7003,7003,7003,700 $ 552,070$ 581,776$ 619,029$ 675,403 $ 639,646$ 648,646$ 677,066$ 707,122$ 738,703 $ 71,656$ 63,207$ 39,816$ (14,676) 21,49417,004578(7,208) $ 76,971$ 80,741$ 83,505$ 86,250$ 89,848 14,37415,27915,92017,21017,939 $ 50,162$ 46,203$ 39,238$ (7,468) $ 62,597$ 65,462$ 67,585$ 69,039$ 71,909 $ 2.43$ 2.20$ 1.84$ (0.35) 20,62221,00621,32621,549 $ 2.88$ 2.99$ 3.07$ 3.12$ 3.24 21,74321,90522,01322,12022,228 Selected Financial Metrics Net Premiums Earned Growth Loss & LAE Ratio Expense Ratio Dividend Ratio Combined Ratio Effective Tax Rate 5.5%3.9%2.5%6.3% 65.0%65.3%69.5%70.9% 29.9%30.0%30.6%31.7% 1.4%2.3%1.3%1.4% 2.1%1.5%4.4%4.5%4.5% 68.0%67.2%66.6%66.4%66.4% 26.8%27.6%28.2%28.5%28.5% 1.6%1.6%1.6%1.5%1.5% 96.3%97.7%101.3%104.0% 30.0%26.9%1.5%49.1% 96.4%96.4%96.4%96.4%96.4% 18.7%18.9%19.1%20.0%20.0% Return on Average Equity9.8%8.6%6.8%-1.3% 10.8%10.7%10.5%10.1%10.0%

 

Quota Share ($ in thousands) Alternative – Historical and Projected GAAP Financials 28 Quota Share Scenario For the Year Ended December 31, 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P Stockholder's Equity Rollforward Beginning Stockholders' Equity Plus: Net Income Less: Dividends Paid to Stockholders Change in Other Comprehensive Income Other (Plug) Ending Stockholders' Equity Dividends per Shares Dividend Payout Ratio Basic Book Value per Share ($) $ 502,886 $ 524,938 $ 553,342 $ 603,846 50,162 46,203 39,238 (7,468) (14,174) (16,196) (17,998) (19,121) (23,229) (12,352) 25,530 (15,530) 9,293 10,749 3,734 4,055 $ 565,782 $ 597,081 $ 629,812 $ 663,604 $ 698,124 62,597 65,462 67,585 69,039 71,909 (31,299) (32,731) (33,793) (34,520) (35,955) - - - - - - - - - - $ 524,938 $ 553,342 $ 603,846 $ 565,782 $ 0.69 $ 0.77 $ 0.84 $ 0.89 28.3% 35.1% 45.9% NM $ 25.26 $ 26.07 $ 28.14 $ 26.18 $ 597,081 $ 629,812 $ 663,604 $ 698,124 $ 734,079 $ 1.44 $ 1.49 $ 1.54 $ 1.56 $ 1.62 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% $ 27.30 $ 28.71 $ 30.04 $ 31.51 $ 32.91

 

Quota Share Alternative ($ in thousands) – Property & Casualty Segment Revenues Net Premiums Earned Net Investment Income Net Realized Investment Gains Other Income (Loss) Total Revenues $ 495,446 34,069 (28,227) $ 504,525 $ 506,780 $ 529,024 $ 552,830 $ 577,707 - - - - - 8,444 7,474 7,474 7,474 7,474 7,474 $ 509,733 $ 547,936 $ 552,640 $ 576,206 $ 601,118 $ 627,781 Losses and Expenses Losses and Settlement Expenses Dividends to Policyholders Other Underwriting Expenses Interest Expense Other Expenses Total Losses and Expenses 332,921 9,209 169,836 654 331,977 10,595 328,393 10,642 338,046 11,110 352,153 11,057 367,999 11,554 683 683 683 683 683 1,202 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 $ 513,821 $ 481,181 $ 483,324 $ 504,455 $ 527,071 $ 550,704 Income before Income Tax Expense $ (4,088) $ 66,754 $ 69,316 $ 71,751 $ 74,047 $ 77,077 Net Premiums Earned Growth Loss & LAE Ratio Expense Ratio Dividend Ratio Combined Ratio 4.9% 67.2% 34.3% 1.9% 1.8% 65.8% 0.4% 64.8% 4.4% 63.9% 4.5% 63.7% 4.5% 63.7% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 29 103.3% 95.0%95.0%95.0%95.0%95.0% 27.1%28.1%29.0%29.3%29.3% Selected Financial Metrics 136,726142,405153,417161,979169,268 35,93738,38639,70840,81442,600 For the Year Ended December 31, 2018A2019P2020P2021P2022P2023P

 

Quota Share Alternative ($ in thousands) – Reinsurance Segment Revenues Net Premiums Earned Net Investment Income Net Realized Investment Gains Other Income (Loss) Total Revenues $ 149,736 13,523 (12,935) $ 154,281 14,400 - $ 161,599 15,149 - $ 168,871 15,494 - $ 176,471 15,782 - $ 184,412 16,358 - 715 - - - - - $ 151,039 $ 168,681 $ 176,748 $ 184,365 $ 192,253 $ 200,770 Losses and Expenses Losses and Settlement Expenses Dividends to Policyholders Other Underwriting Expenses Interest Expense Other Expenses Total Losses and Expenses 124,238 - 34,791 - 116,019 - 37,445 - 121,038 - 39,210 - 126,484 - 40,975 - 132,000 - 42,819 - 137,940 - 44,745 - - - - - - - $ 159,029 $ 153,464 $ 160,248 $ 167,459 $ 174,819 $ 182,686 Income before Income Tax Expense $ (7,990) $ 15,217 $ 16,500 $ 16,906 $ 17,435 $ 18,085 Net Premiums Earned Growth Loss & LAE Ratio Expense Ratio Dividend Ratio Combined Ratio 11.1% 83.0% 23.2% 3.0% 75.2% 24.3% 4.7% 74.9% 24.3% 4.5% 74.9% 24.3% 4.5% 74.8% 24.3% 4.5% 74.8% 24.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 106.2% 99.5% 99.2% 99.2% 99.1% 99.1% 30 Selected Financial Metrics For the Year Ended December 31, 2018A2019P2020P2021P2022P2023P