LIABILITY FOR LOSSES AND SETTLEMENT EXPENSES

The following table sets forth a reconciliation of beginning and ending reserves for losses and settlement expenses of the Company. Amounts presented are on a net basis, with a reconciliation of beginning and ending reserves to the gross amounts presented in the consolidated financial statements.



	Year ended December 31,
($ in thousands)	2015			2014			2013
Gross reserves at beginning of year	$	661,309		$	610,181		$	583,097
Re-valuation due to foreign currency exchange rates	(2,061		)	333			(2		)
Less ceded reserves at beginning of year	28,253			30,118			31,390
Net reserves at beginning of year	635,117			579,730			551,709

Incurred losses and settlement expenses related to:
Current year	405,850			406,266			346,072
Prior years	(35,114		)	(20,792		)	(12,785		)
Total incurred losses and settlement expenses	370,736			385,474			333,287

Paid losses and settlement expenses related to:
Current year	154,958			162,905			137,998
Prior years	193,123			167,182			167,268
Total paid losses and settlement expenses	348,081			330,087			305,266

Net reserves at end of year	657,772			635,117			579,730
Plus ceded reserves at end of year	23,477			28,253			30,118
Re-valuation due to foreign currency exchange rates	(2,475		)	(2,061		)	333
Gross reserves at end of year	$	678,774		$	661,309		$	610,181

Development on prior years’ reserves resulting solely from changes in the allocation of bulk reserves between the current and prior accident years does not have an impact on earnings. This is due to the fact that such development is simply a mathematical by-product of the mechanical process used to reallocate bulk reserves to the various accident years. Earnings are only impacted by changes in the total amount of carried reserves.

The following table presents the reported amounts of favorable development experienced on prior years’ reserves and the portion of the reported development amounts that resulted solely from changes in the allocation of bulk reserves between the current and prior accident years (no impact on earnings). The result is an approximation of the implied amounts of favorable development that had an impact on earnings.



	Year ended December 31,
($ in thousands)	2015			2014			2013
Reported amount of favorable development experienced on prior years' reserves	$	(35,114	)	$	(20,792	)	$	(12,785	)
Adjustment for (adverse) favorable development included in the reported development amount that had no impact on earnings	(618		)	2,151			6,526
Approximation of the implied amount of favorable development that had an impact on earnings	$	(35,732	)	$	(18,641	)	$	(6,259	)

There is an inherent amount of uncertainty involved in the establishment of insurance liabilities. This uncertainty is greatest in the current and more recent accident years because a smaller percentage of the expected ultimate claims have been reported, adjusted and settled compared to more mature accident years. For this reason, carried reserves for these accident years reflect prudently conservative assumptions. As the carried reserves for these accident years run off, the overall expectation is that, more often than not, favorable development will occur. However, there is also the possibility that the ultimate settlement of liabilities associated with these accident years will show adverse development, and such adverse development could be substantial.

Changes in reserve estimates are reflected in net income in the year such changes are recorded. Following is an analysis of the reserve development the Company has experienced during the past three years. Care should be exercised when attempting to analyze the financial impact of the reported development amounts because, as noted above, the overall expectation is that, more often than not, favorable development will occur as the prior accident years’ reserves run off.

2015 Development

For the property and casualty insurance segment, the December 31, 2015 estimate of loss and settlement expense reserves for accident years 2014 and prior decreased $13.8 million from the estimate at December 31, 2014. This decrease represents 3.0 percent of the December 31, 2014 gross carried reserves and is primarily attributed to better than expected outcomes on claims reported in prior years and favorable development on prior years' settlement expenses. No changes were made in the key actuarial assumptions utilized to estimate loss and settlement expense reserves during 2015; however, the accident year allocation factors applied to IBNR loss reserves, bulk case loss reserves and the defense and cost containment portion of settlement expense reserves were revised at December 31, 2015 as part of the annual review. This change resulted in the movement of $423,000 of reserves from prior accident years to the current accident year, and hence, was reported as favorable development on prior years' reserves. Development on prior years’ reserves resulting solely from changes in the allocation of bulk reserves between the current and prior accident years does not have an impact on earnings.

For the reinsurance segment, the December 31, 2015 estimate of loss and settlement expense reserves for accident years 2014 and prior decreased $21.3 million from the estimate at December 31, 2014. This decrease represents 10.8 percent of the December 31, 2014 gross carried reserves and is attributable to several factors, including adjustments made in the offshore energy and liability proportional account, a reduction in carried IBNR loss reserves that could no longer be justified and a negative bulk IBNR loss reserve established for the MRB book of business. No changes were made in the key actuarial assumptions utilized to estimate loss and settlement expense reserves during 2015; however, the accident year allocation factors applied to IBNR loss reserves were revised during 2015. This change resulted in the movement of $1.0 million of reserves from the current accident year to prior accident years, and hence, was reported as adverse development on prior years' reserves. Development on prior years’ reserves resulting solely from changes in the allocation of bulk reserves between the current and prior accident years does not have an impact on earnings.

2014 Development

For the property and casualty insurance segment, the December 31, 2014 estimate of loss and settlement expense reserves for accident years 2013 and prior decreased $8.1 million from the estimate at December 31, 2013. This decrease represented 1.9 percent of the December 31, 2013 gross carried reserves and was primarily attributed to better than expected outcomes on claims reported in prior years and favorable development on prior years' settlement expense reserves. No changes were made in the key actuarial assumptions utilized to estimate loss and settlement expense reserves during 2014; however, the accident year allocation factors applied to IBNR loss reserves, bulk case loss reserves and the defense and cost containment portion of settlement expense reserves were revised at December 31, 2014 as part of the annual review. This change resulted in the movement of $2.2 million of reserves from prior accident years to the current accident year, and hence, was reported as favorable development on prior years' reserves. Development on prior years’ reserves resulting solely from changes in the allocation of bulk reserves between the current and prior accident years does not have an impact on earnings.

For the reinsurance segment, the December 31, 2014 estimate of loss and settlement expense reserves for accident years 2013 and prior decreased $12.7 million from the estimate at December 31, 2013. This decrease represented 6.9 percent of the December 31, 2013 gross carried reserves and was largely attributed to reported losses being lower than what was expected as of December 31, 2014 for accident years 2012 and prior, and a take down of IBNR loss reserves on older accident years because the amount previously carried was no longer indicated in the actuarial analysis.

2013 Development

For the property and casualty insurance segment, the December 31, 2013 estimate of loss and settlement expense reserves for accident years 2012 and prior decreased $7.3 million from the estimate at December 31, 2012. This decrease represented 1.8 percent of the December 31, 2012 gross carried reserves and was primarily attributed to favorable development on settlement expense reserves and ceded reinsurance reserves. No changes were made in the key actuarial assumptions utilized to estimate loss and settlement expense reserves during 2013; however, the accident year allocation factors applied to IBNR loss reserves, bulk case loss reserves and the defense and cost containment portion of settlement expense reserves were revised at December 31, 2013 as part of the annual review. This change resulted in the movement of $6.5 million of reserves from the prior accident years to the current accident year, and hence, was reported as favorable development on prior years' reserves. Development on prior years’ reserves resulting solely from changes in the allocation of bulk reserves between the current and prior accident years does not have an impact on earnings.

For the reinsurance segment, the December 31, 2013 estimate of loss and settlement expense reserves for accident years 2012 and prior decreased $5.5 million from the estimate at December 31, 2012. This decrease represented 3.2 percent of the December 31, 2012 gross carried reserves and was largely attributed to reported losses that were below the December 2012 implicit projections for policy year 2012 in the Home Office Reinsurance Assumed Department ("HORAD") book of business.