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Pensions and other post-retirement benefits
12 Months Ended
Dec. 31, 2017
Employee Benefits [Abstract]  
Pensions and other post-retirement benefits
Pensions and other post-retirement benefits
Most group companies have pension plans, the forms and benefits of which vary with conditions and practices in the countries concerned. Pension benefits may be provided through defined contribution plans (money purchase schemes) or defined benefit plans (final salary and other types of schemes with committed pension benefit payments). For defined contribution plans, retirement benefits are determined by the value of funds arising from contributions paid in respect of each employee. For defined benefit plans, retirement benefits are based on such factors as an employee’s pensionable salary and length of service. Defined benefit plans may be funded or unfunded. The assets of funded plans are generally held in separately administered trusts.
For information on significant estimates and judgements made in relation to accounting for these plans see Pensions and other post-retirement benefits within Note 1.
The primary pension arrangement in the UK is a funded final salary pension plan under which retired employees draw the majority of their benefit as an annuity. This pension plan is governed by a corporate trustee whose board is composed of four member-nominated directors, four company-nominated directors, an independent director and an independent chairman nominated by the company. The trustee board is required by law to act in the best interests of the plan participants and is responsible for setting certain policies, such as investment policies of the plan. The UK plan is closed to new joiners but remains open to ongoing accrual for current members. New joiners in the UK are eligible for membership of a defined contribution plan.
In the US, all employees now accrue benefits under a cash balance formula. Benefits previously accrued under final salary formulas are legally protected. Retiring US employees typically take their pension benefit in the form of a lump sum payment upon retirement. The plan is funded and its assets are overseen by a fiduciary Investment Committee composed of six BP employees appointed by the president of BP Corporation North America Inc. (the appointing officer). The Investment Committee is required by law to act in the best interests of the plan participants and is responsible for setting certain policies, such as the investment policies of the plan. US employees are also eligible to participate in a defined contribution (401k) plan in which employee contributions are matched with company contributions. In the US, group companies also provide post-retirement healthcare to retired employees and their dependants (and, in certain cases, life insurance coverage); the entitlement to these benefits is usually based on the employee remaining in service until a specified age and completion of a minimum period of service.
In the Eurozone, there are defined benefit pension plans in Germany, France, the Netherlands and other countries. In Germany and France, the majority of the pensions are unfunded, in line with market practice. In Germany, the group’s largest Eurozone plan, employees receive a pension and also have a choice to supplement their core pension through salary sacrifice. For employees who joined since 2002 the core pension benefit is a career average plan with retirement benefits based on such factors as an employee’s pensionable salary and length of service. The returns on the notional contributions made by both the company and employees are based on the interest rate which is set out in German tax law. Retired German employees take their pension benefit typically in the form of an annuity. The German plans are governed by legal agreements between BP and the works council or between BP and the trade union.
The level of contributions to funded defined benefit plans is the amount needed to provide adequate funds to meet pension obligations as they fall due. During 2017 the aggregate level of contributions was $637 million (2016 $651 million and 2015 $1,066 million). The aggregate level of contributions in 2018 is expected to be approximately $600 million, and includes contributions in all countries that we expect to be required to make contributions by law or under contractual agreements, as well as an allowance for discretionary funding.
For the primary UK plan there is a funding agreement between the group and the trustee. On an annual basis the latest funding position is reviewed and a schedule of contributions is agreed. The current agreement covers the next five years. The funding agreement can be terminated unilaterally by either party with two years’ notice. Contractually committed funding therefore represents seven years of future contributions, which amounted to $2,623 million at 31 December 2017, of which $106 million relates to past service.This amount is included in the group’s committed cash flows relating to pensions and other post-retirement benefit plans as set out in the table of contractual obligations on page 252.
22. Pensions and other post-retirement benefits – continued
The surplus relating to the primary UK pension plan is recognized on the balance sheet on the basis that the company is entitled to a refund of any remaining assets once all members have left the plan.
Pension contributions in the US are determined by legislation and are supplemented by discretionary contributions. All of the contributions made into the US pension plan in 2017 were discretionary and no statutory funding requirement is expected in the next 12 months.
There was no minimum funding requirement for the US plan, and no significant minimum funding requirements in other countries at 31 December 2017.
The obligation and cost of providing pensions and other post-retirement benefits is assessed annually using the projected unit credit method. The date of the most recent actuarial review was 31 December 2017. The UK plans are subject to a formal actuarial valuation every three years; valuations are required more frequently in many other countries. The most recent formal actuarial valuation of the UK pension plans was as at 31 December 2014, and a valuation as at 31 December 2017 is currently under way. A valuation of the US plan is carried out annually.
The material financial assumptions used to estimate the benefit obligations of the various plans are set out below. The assumptions are reviewed by management at the end of each year, and are used to evaluate the accrued benefit obligation at 31 December and pension expense for the following year.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
%
Financial assumptions used to determine benefit obligation
 
 
 
UK
 
 
US
 
 
Eurozone
 
 
2017
2016
2015
2017
2016
2015
2017
2016
2015
Discount rate for plan liabilities
 
2.5
2.7
3.9
3.5
3.9
4.0
1.9
1.7
2.4
Rate of increase in salaries
 
4.1
4.6
4.4
4.1
4.2
3.9
3.0
3.0
3.2
Rate of increase for pensions in payment
 
2.9
3.0
3.0
1.4
1.5
1.6
Rate of increase in deferred pensions
 
2.9
3.0
3.0
0.6
0.5
0.6
Inflation for plan liabilities
 
3.1
3.2
3.0
1.7
1.8
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.8
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
%
Financial assumptions used to determine benefit expense
 
 
 
UK
 
 
US
 
 
Eurozone
 
 
2017
2016
2015
2017
2016
2015
2017
2016
2015
Discount rate for plan service cost
 
2.7
4.0
3.9
4.1
4.2
3.8
2.1
2.7
2.3
Discount rate for plan other finance expense
 
2.7
3.9
3.6
3.9
4.0
3.7
1.7
2.4
2.0
Inflation for plan service cost
 
3.2
3.1
3.1
1.8
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.8
2.0

The discount rate assumptions are based on third-party AA corporate bond indices and for our largest plans in the UK, US and the Eurozone we use yields that reflect the maturity profile of the expected benefit payments. The inflation rate assumptions for our UK and US plans are based on the difference between the yields on index-linked and fixed-interest long-term government bonds. In other countries, including the Eurozone, we use this approach, or advice from the local actuary depending on the information available. The inflation assumptions are used to determine the rate of increase for pensions in payment and the rate of increase in deferred pensions where there is such an increase.
The assumptions for the rate of increase in salaries are based on the inflation assumption plus an allowance for expected long-term real salary growth. These include an allowance for promotion-related salary growth, of up to 0.8% depending on country.
In addition to the financial assumptions, we regularly review the demographic and mortality assumptions. The mortality assumptions reflect best practice in the countries in which we provide pensions, and have been chosen with regard to applicable published tables adjusted where appropriate to reflect the experience of the group and an extrapolation of past longevity improvements into the future. BP’s most substantial pension liabilities are in the UK, the US and the Eurozone where our mortality assumptions are as follows:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Years

Mortality assumptions
 
 
 
UK

 
 
US

 
 
Eurozone

 
 
2017

2016

2015

2017

2016

2015

2017

2016

2015

Life expectancy at age 60 for a male currently aged 60
 
27.4

28.0

28.5

25.1

25.7

25.7

25.1

25.0

24.9

Life expectancy at age 60 for a male currently aged 40
 
29.0

30.0

31.0

26.8

27.5

27.5

27.6

27.6

27.5

Life expectancy at age 60 for a female currently aged 60
 
28.8

29.5

29.5

28.4

29.3

29.2

29.0

28.9

28.8

Life expectancy at age 60 for a female currently aged 40
 
30.5

31.9

31.9

30.0

31.0

30.9

31.4

31.3

31.2


Pension plan assets are generally held in trusts, the primary objective of which is to accumulate assets sufficient to meet the obligations of the plans. The assets of the trusts are invested in a manner consistent with fiduciary obligations and principles that reflect current practices in portfolio management.
A significant proportion of the assets are held in equities, which are expected to generate a higher level of return over the long term, with an acceptable level of risk. In order to provide reasonable assurance that no single security or type of security has an unwarranted impact on the total portfolio, the investment portfolios are highly diversified.
The trustee’s long-term investment objective for the primary UK plan as it matures is to invest in assets whose value changes in the same way as the plan liabilities, in order to reduce the level of funding risk. To move towards this objective, the UK plan uses a liability driven investment (LDI) approach for part of the portfolio, investing in government bonds to achieve this matching effect for the most significant plan liability assumptions of interest rate and inflation rate. This is partly funded by short-term sale and repurchase agreements, whereby the plan borrows money using existing bonds as security and which will be bought back at a specified price at an agreed future date. The funds raised are used to invest in further bonds to increase the proportion of assets which match the plan liabilities. The borrowings are shown separately in the analysis of pension plan assets in the table below.
22. Pensions and other post-retirement benefits – continued
For the primary UK pension plan there is an agreement with the trustee to increase the proportion of assets included in the LDI portfolio over time by reducing the proportion of plan assets held as equities and increasing the proportion held as bonds. There is a similar agreement in place for the primary US plan. During 2017, the UK and the US plans switched 15% and 5% of plan assets respectively from equities to bonds.
The current asset allocation policy for the major plans at 31 December 2017 was as follows:
 
 
UK
US
Asset category
 
%
%
Total equity (including private equity)
 
43
50
Bonds/cash (including LDI)
 
50
50
Property/real estate
 
7

The amounts invested under the LDI programme by the primary UK pension plan as at 31 December 2017 were $2,588 million (2016 $423 million) of government-issued nominal bonds and $16,177 million (2016 $9,384 million) of index-linked bonds.
In addition, the primary UK plan entered into interest rate swaps in the year to offset the long-term fixed interest rate exposure for $1,333 million (2016 $4,450 million) of the corporate bond portfolio. At 31 December 2017 the fair value liability of these swaps was $49 million (2016 $144 million fair value liability) and is included in other assets in the table below.
Some of the group’s pension plans in other countries also use derivative financial instruments as part of their asset mix to manage the level of risk.
The group’s main pension plans do not invest directly in either securities or property/real estate of the company or of any subsidiary.
The fair values of the various categories of assets held by the defined benefit plans at 31 December are presented in the table below, including the effects of derivative financial instruments. Movements in the fair value of plan assets during the year are shown in detail in the table on page 165.
 
 
 
 
 
 
$ million

 
 
UKa

USb

Eurozone

Other

Total

Fair value of pension plan assets
 
 
 
 
 
 
At 31 December 2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
Listed equities – developed markets
 
9,548

2,158

537

376

12,619

   – emerging markets
 
2,220

220

83

53

2,576

Private equityc
 
2,679

1,461



4,140

Government issued nominal bonds
 
2,663

1,777

941

545

5,926

Government issued index-linked bonds
 
16,177


2


16,179

Corporate bonds
 
4,682

2,024

546

272

7,524

Propertyd
 
2,211

6

71

30

2,318

Cash
 
390

80

21

98

589

Other
 
104

53

23

45

225

Debt (repurchase agreements) used to fund liability driven investments
 
(5,583
)



(5,583
)
 
 
35,091

7,779

2,224

1,419

46,513

At 31 December 2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
Listed equities – developed markets
 
11,494

2,283

436

363

14,576

   – emerging markets
 
2,549

220

54

46

2,869

Private equityc
 
2,754

1,442

1


4,197

Government issued nominal bonds
 
489

1,438

821

448

3,196

Government issued index-linked bonds
 
9,384


4


9,388

Corporate bonds
 
4,042

1,732

427

259

6,460

Propertyd
 
1,970

6

45

28

2,049

Cash
 
547

105

17

83

752

Other
 
(68
)
90

74

83

179

Debt (repurchase agreements) used to fund liability driven investments
 
(2,981
)



(2,981
)
 
 
30,180

7,316

1,879

1,310

40,685

At 31 December 2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
Listed equities – developed markets
 
13,474

2,329

423

371

16,597

   – emerging markets
 
2,305

226

49

50

2,630

Private equityc
 
2,933

1,522

1

4

4,460

Government issued nominal bonds
 
393

1,527

685

492

3,097

Government issued index-linked bonds
 
6,425


5


6,430

Corporate bonds
 
4,357

1,717

551

367

6,992

Propertyd
 
2,453

6

48

58

2,565

Cash
 
564

116

10

139

829

Other
 
110

67

102

50

329

Debt (repurchase agreements) used to fund liability driven investments
 
(1,791
)



(1,791
)
 
 
31,223

7,510

1,874

1,531

42,138

a 
Bonds held by the UK pension plans are denominated in sterling. Property held by the UK pension plans is in the United Kingdom.
b 
Bonds held by the US pension plans are denominated in US dollars.
c Private equity is valued at fair value based on the most recent third-party net asset valuation.
d Properties are valued based on an analysis of recent market transactions supported by market knowledge derived from third-party valuers.
22. Pensions and other post-retirement benefits – continued
 
 
 
 
 
 
$ million

 
 
 
 
 
 
2017

 
 
UK

US

Eurozone

Other

Total

Analysis of the amount charged to profit (loss) before interest and taxation
 
 
 
 
 
 
Current service costa
 
357

292

85

46

780

Past service costb
 
12


5

(1
)
16

Settlementb
 


13


13

Operating charge relating to defined benefit plans
 
369

292

103

45

809

Payments to defined contribution plans
 
31

191

7

38

267

Total operating charge
 
400

483

110

83

1,076

Interest income on plan assetsa
 
(845
)
(266
)
(37
)
(48
)
(1,196
)
Interest on plan liabilities
 
831

393

121

71

1,416

Other finance (income) expense
 
(14
)
127

84

23

220

Analysis of the amount recognized in other comprehensive income
 
 
 
 
 
 
Actual asset return less interest income on plan assets
 
2,396

826

30

43

3,295

Change in financial assumptions underlying the present value of the plan liabilities
 
(236
)
(514
)
336

(47
)
(461
)
Change in demographic assumptions underlying the present value of the plan liabilities
 
734

72


(23
)
783

Experience gains and losses arising on the plan liabilities
 
91

(40
)
(36
)
14

29

Remeasurements recognized in other comprehensive income
 
2,985

344

330

(13
)
3,646

Movements in benefit obligation during the year
 
 
 
 
 
 
Benefit obligation at 1 January
 
29,908

10,533

6,820

1,715

48,976

Exchange adjustments
 
2,886


915

89

3,890

Operating charge relating to defined benefit plans
 
369

292

103

45

809

Interest cost
 
831

393

121

71

1,416

Contributions by plan participantsc
 
16


2

6

24

Benefit payments (funded plans)d
 
(1,903
)
(641
)
(75
)
(89
)
(2,708
)
Benefit payments (unfunded plans)d
 
(5
)
(239
)
(302
)
(20
)
(566
)
Acquisitions
 

1



1

Disposals
 

(1
)
(9
)

(10
)
Remeasurements
 
(589
)
482

(300
)
56

(351
)
Benefit obligation at 31 Decembera e
 
31,513

10,820

7,275

1,873

51,481

Movements in fair value of plan assets during the year
 





Fair value of plan assets at 1 January
 
30,180

7,316

1,879

1,310

40,685

Exchange adjustments
 
3,048


264

72

3,384

Interest income on plan assetsa f
 
845

266

37

48

1,196

Contributions by plan participantsc
 
16


2

6

24

Contributions by employers (funded plans)
 
509

12

87

29

637

Benefit payments (funded plans)d
 
(1,903
)
(641
)
(75
)
(89
)
(2,708
)
Remeasurementsf
 
2,396

826

30

43

3,295

Fair value of plan assets at 31 Decemberg
 
35,091

7,779

2,224

1,419

46,513

Surplus (deficit) at 31 December
 
3,578

(3,041
)
(5,051
)
(454
)
(4,968
)
Represented by
 





Asset recognized
 
3,838

260

43

28

4,169

Liability recognized
 
(260
)
(3,301
)
(5,094
)
(482
)
(9,137
)
 
 
3,578

(3,041
)
(5,051
)
(454
)
(4,968
)
The surplus (deficit) may be analysed between funded and unfunded plans as follows
 





Funded
 
3,838

238

(106
)
(101
)
3,869

Unfunded
 
(260
)
(3,279
)
(4,945
)
(353
)
(8,837
)
 
 
3,578

(3,041
)
(5,051
)
(454
)
(4,968
)
The defined benefit obligation may be analysed between funded and unfunded plans as follows
 





Funded
 
(31,253
)
(7,541
)
(2,330
)
(1,520
)
(42,644
)
Unfunded
 
(260
)
(3,279
)
(4,945
)
(353
)
(8,837
)
 
 
(31,513
)
(10,820
)
(7,275
)
(1,873
)
(51,481
)
a 
The costs of managing plan investments are offset against the investment return, the costs of administering pension plan benefits are generally included in current service cost and the costs of administering other post-retirement benefit plans are included in the benefit obligation.
b 
Past service costs and settlements have arisen from restructuring programmes and represent charges for special termination benefits representing the increased liability arising as a result of early retirements mostly in the UK and Eurozone.
c 
Most of the contributions made by plan participants into UK pension plans were made under salary sacrifice.
d 
The benefit payments amount shown above comprises $3,235 million benefits and $2 million settlements, plus $37 million of plan expenses incurred in the administration of the benefit.
e 
The benefit obligation for the US is made up of $8,085 million for pension liabilities and $2,735 million for other post-retirement benefit liabilities (which are unfunded and are primarily retiree medical liabilities). The benefit obligation for the Eurozone includes $4,586 million for pension liabilities in Germany which is largely unfunded.
f 
The actual return on plan assets is made up of the sum of the interest income on plan assets and the remeasurement of plan assets as disclosed above.
g 
The fair value of plan assets includes borrowings related to the LDI programme as described on page 164.
22. Pensions and other post-retirement benefits – continued
 
 
 
 
 
 
$ million

 
 
 
 
 
 
2016

 
 
UK

US

Eurozone

Other

Total

Analysis of the amount charged to profit (loss) before interest and taxation
 
 
 
 
 
 
Current service costa
 
333

310

76

71

790

Past service costb
 
17

(24
)
7

1

1

Settlement
 


9

(1
)
8

Operating charge relating to defined benefit plans
 
350

286

92

71

799

Payments to defined contribution plans
 
30

194

7

33

264

Total operating charge
 
380

480

99

104

1,063

Interest income on plan assetsa
 
(1,086
)
(287
)
(47
)
(51
)
(1,471
)
Interest on plan liabilities
 
1,005

417

159

80

1,661

Other finance (income) expense
 
(81
)
130

112

29

190

Analysis of the amount recognized in other comprehensive income
 
 
 
 
 
 
Actual asset return less interest income on plan assets
 
4,422

330

53

8

4,813

Change in financial assumptions underlying the present value of the plan liabilities
 
(6,932
)
(239
)
(622
)
4

(7,789
)
Change in demographic assumptions underlying the present value of the plan liabilities
 
430

9

12

(5
)
446

Experience gains and losses arising on the plan liabilities
 
55

(62
)
26

15

34

Remeasurements recognized in other comprehensive income
 
(2,025
)
38

(531
)
22

(2,496
)
Movements in benefit obligation during the year
 
 
 
 
 
 
Benefit obligation at 1 January
 
28,974

10,643

6,640

2,089

48,346

Exchange adjustments
 
(5,688
)

(282
)
23

(5,947
)
Operating charge relating to defined benefit plans
 
350

286

92

71

799

Interest cost
 
1,005

417

159

80

1,661

Contributions by plan participantsc
 
18


2

6

26

Benefit payments (funded plans)d
 
(1,192
)
(821
)
(78
)
(117
)
(2,208
)
Benefit payments (unfunded plans)d
 
(6
)
(284
)
(301
)
(24
)
(615
)
Acquisitions
 


4


4

Disposals
 



(399
)
(399
)
Remeasurements
 
6,447

292

584

(14
)
7,309

Benefit obligation at 31 Decembera e
 
29,908

10,533

6,820

1,715

48,976

Movements in fair value of plan assets during the year
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fair value of plan assets at 1 January
 
31,223

7,510

1,874

1,531

42,138

Exchange adjustments
 
(5,916
)

(76
)
15

(5,977
)
Interest income on plan assetsa f
 
1,086

287

47

51

1,471

Contributions by plan participantsc
 
18


2

6

26

Contributions by employers (funded plans)
 
539

10

57

45

651

Benefit payments (funded plans)d
 
(1,192
)
(821
)
(78
)
(117
)
(2,208
)
Disposals
 



(229
)
(229
)
Remeasurementsf
 
4,422

330

53

8

4,813

Fair value of plan assets at 31 Decemberg
 
30,180

7,316

1,879

1,310

40,685

Surplus (deficit) at 31 December
 
272

(3,217
)
(4,941
)
(405
)
(8,291
)
Represented by
 
 
 
 
 
 
Asset recognized
 
530


22

32

584

Liability recognized
 
(258
)
(3,217
)
(4,963
)
(437
)
(8,875
)
 
 
272

(3,217
)
(4,941
)
(405
)
(8,291
)
The surplus (deficit) may be analysed between funded and unfunded plans as follows
 
 
 
 
 
 
Funded
 
519

(36
)
(316
)
(83
)
84

Unfunded
 
(247
)
(3,181
)
(4,625
)
(322
)
(8,375
)
 
 
272

(3,217
)
(4,941
)
(405
)
(8,291
)
The defined benefit obligation may be analysed between funded and unfunded plans as follows
 
 
 
 
 
 
Funded
 
(29,661
)
(7,352
)
(2,195
)
(1,393
)
(40,601
)
Unfunded
 
(247
)
(3,181
)
(4,625
)
(322
)
(8,375
)
 
 
(29,908
)
(10,533
)
(6,820
)
(1,715
)
(48,976
)
a 
The costs of managing plan investments are offset against the investment return, the costs of administering pension plan benefits are generally included in current service cost and the costs of administering other post-retirement benefit plans are included in the benefit obligation.
b 
Past service costs have arisen from restructuring programmes and represent a combination of credits as a result of the curtailment in the pension arrangements of a number of employees mostly in the US and charges for special termination benefits representing the increased liability arising as a result of early retirements mostly in the UK and Eurozone. The UK also includes $12 million of cost resulting from benefit harmonization within the primary plan.
c 
Most of the contributions made by plan participants into UK pension plans were made under salary sacrifice.
d 
The benefit payments amount shown above comprises $2,754 million benefits and $14 million settlements, plus $55 million of plan expenses incurred in the administration of the benefit.
e 
The benefit obligation for the US is made up of $7,902 million for pension liabilities and $2,631 million for other post-retirement benefit liabilities (which are unfunded and are primarily retiree medical liabilities). The benefit obligation for the Eurozone includes $4,289 million for pension liabilities in Germany which is largely unfunded.
f 
The actual return on plan assets is made up of the sum of the interest income on plan assets and the remeasurement of plan assets as disclosed above.
g 
The fair value of plan assets includes borrowings related to the LDI programme as described on page 164.
22. Pensions and other post-retirement benefits – continued
 
 
 
 
 
 
$ million

 
 
 
 
 
 
2015

 
 
UK

US

Eurozone

Other

Total

Analysis of the amount charged to profit (loss) before interest and taxation
 
 
 
 
 
 
Current service costa
 
485

371

96

96

1,048

Past service costb
 
12

(27
)
47

(7
)
25

Settlement
 


(1
)
(3
)
(4
)
Operating charge relating to defined benefit plans
 
497

344

142

86

1,069

Payments to defined contribution plans
 
31

205

8

41

285

Total operating charge
 
528

549

150

127

1,354

Interest income on plan assetsa
 
(1,124
)
(289
)
(37
)
(55
)
(1,505
)
Interest on plan liabilities
 
1,146

423

151

91

1,811

Other finance expense
 
22

134

114

36

306

Analysis of the amount recognized in other comprehensive income
 
 
 
 
 
 
Actual asset return less interest income on plan assets
 
315

(139
)
25

33

234

Change in financial assumptions underlying the present value of the plan liabilities
 
2,054

607

592

213

3,466

Change in demographic assumptions underlying the present value of the plan liabilities
 

60

15


75

Experience gains and losses arising on the plan liabilities
 
336

(48
)
47

29

364

Remeasurements recognized in other comprehensive income
 
2,705

480

679

275

4,139

a The costs of managing plan investments are offset against the investment return, the costs of administering pension plan benefits are generally included in current service cost and the costs of administering other post-retirement benefit plans are included in the benefit obligation.
b Past service costs have arisen from restructuring programmes and represent a combination of credits as a result of the curtailment in the pension arrangements of a number of employees mostly in the US and Trinidad and charges for special termination benefits representing the increased liability arising as a result of early retirements mostly in the UK and Eurozone.

Sensitivity analysis
The discount rate, inflation, salary growth and the mortality assumptions all have a significant effect on the amounts reported. A one-percentage point change, in isolation, in certain assumptions as at 31 December 2017 for the group’s plans would have had the effects shown in the table below. The effects shown for the expense in 2018 comprise the total of current service cost and net finance income or expense.
 
 
 
$ million

 
 
One percentage point
 
 
 
Increase

Decrease

Discount ratea
 
 
 
Effect on pension and other post-retirement benefit expense in 2018
 
(366
)
298

Effect on pension and other post-retirement benefit obligation at 31 December 2017
 
(7,532
)
9,751

Inflation rateb
 
 
 
Effect on pension and other post-retirement benefit expense in 2018
 
241

(200
)
Effect on pension and other post-retirement benefit obligation at 31 December 2017
 
5,373

(4,690
)
Salary growth
 
 
 
Effect on pension and other post-retirement benefit expense in 2018
 
78

(68
)
Effect on pension and other post-retirement benefit obligation at 31 December 2017
 
837

(747
)
a 
The amounts presented reflect that the discount rate is used to determine the asset interest income as well as the interest cost on the obligation.
b 
The amounts presented reflect the total impact of an inflation rate change on the assumptions for rate of increase in salaries, pensions in payment and deferred pensions.
One additional year of longevity in the mortality assumptions would increase the 2018 pension and other post-retirement benefit expense by $56 million and the pension and other post-retirement benefit obligation at 31 December 2017 by $1,694 million.
Estimated future benefit payments and the weighted average duration of defined benefit obligations
The expected benefit payments, which reflect expected future service, as appropriate, but exclude plan expenses, up until 2027 and the weighted average duration of the defined benefit obligations at 31 December 2017 are as follows:
 
 
 
 
 
 
$ million

Estimated future benefit payments
 
UK

US

Eurozone

Other

Total

2018
 
1,101

847

369

109

2,426

2019
 
1,087

815

359

110

2,371

2020
 
1,108

798

346

109

2,361

2021
 
1,148

853

336

109

2,446

2022
 
1,176

784

332

112

2,404

2023-2027
 
6,319

3,701

1,559

563

12,142

 
 
 
 
 
 
Years

Weighted average duration
 
19.8

9.5

14.3

13.1

 
Employee costs and numbers
 
 
 
 
$ million

Employee costs
 
2017

2016

2015

Wages and salariesa
 
7,572

8,456

9,556

Social security costs
 
711

760

879

Share-based paymentsb
 
624

764

833

Pension and other post-retirement benefit costs
 
1,296

1,253

1,660

 
 
10,203

11,233

12,928


 
 
 
 
2017

 
 
2016

 
 
2015

Average number of employeesc
 
US

Non-US

Total

US

Non-US

Total

US

Non-US

Total

Upstream
 
6,200

12,200

18,400

6,700

13,500

20,200

7,900

15,100

23,000

Downstreamd e
 
6,100

35,900

42,000

6,600

36,600

43,200

7,800

38,200

46,000

Other businesses and corporatee f
 
1,900

12,400

14,300

1,900

12,100

14,000

1,700

11,900

13,600

 
 
14,200

60,500

74,700

15,200

62,200

77,400

17,400

65,200

82,600

a Includes termination costs of $189 million (2016 $545 million and 2015 $857 million).
b The group provides certain employees with shares and share options as part of their remuneration packages. The majority of these share-based payment arrangements are equity-settled.
c Reported to the nearest 100.
d Includes 16,500 (2016 15,800 and 2015 15,000) service station staff.
e Around 800 centralized function employees were reallocated from Upstream and Downstream to Other businesses and corporate during 2016, and around 2,000 from the global business services organization were reallocated from Downstream to Other businesses and corporate during 2015.
f Includes 4,700 (2016 4,900 and 2015 5,300) agricultural, operational and seasonal workers in Brazil.