EX-99.2 3 a2241526zex-99_2.htm EX-99.2
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EXHIBIT 99.2

Management's Discussion and Analysis for the first quarter ended March 31, 2020


MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS
May 5, 2020

Suncor is an integrated energy company headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. We are strategically focused on developing one of the world's largest petroleum resource basins – Canada's Athabasca oil sands. In addition, we explore for, acquire, develop, produce and market crude oil in Canada and internationally; we transport and refine crude oil, and we market petroleum and petrochemical products primarily in Canada. We also operate a renewable energy business and conduct energy trading activities focused principally on the marketing and trading of crude oil, natural gas, byproducts, refined products, and power.

For a description of Suncor's segments, refer to Suncor's Management's Discussion and Analysis for the year ended December 31, 2019, dated February 26, 2020 (the 2019 annual MD&A).

This Management's Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) should be read in conjunction with Suncor's unaudited interim Consolidated Financial Statements for the three months ended March 31, 2020, Suncor's audited Consolidated Financial Statements for the year ended December 31, 2019 and the 2019 annual MD&A.

Additional information about Suncor filed with Canadian securities regulatory authorities and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including quarterly and annual reports and Suncor's Annual Information Form dated February 26, 2020 (the 2019 AIF), which is also filed with the SEC under cover of Form 40-F, is available online at www.sedar.com, www.sec.gov and our website www.suncor.com. Information contained in or otherwise accessible through our website does not form part of this MD&A, and is not incorporated into this document by reference.

References to "we", "our", "Suncor", or "the company" mean Suncor Energy Inc., and the company's subsidiaries and interests in associates and jointly controlled entities, unless the context otherwise requires.

Table of Contents

1.   Advisories   7    
2.   First Quarter Highlights   10    
3.   Consolidated Financial Information   11    
4.   Segment Results and Analysis   16    
5.   Capital Investment Update   28    
6.   Financial Condition and Liquidity   30    
7.   Quarterly Financial Data   34    
8.   Other Items   36    
9.   Non-GAAP Financial Measures Advisory   38    
10.   Common Abbreviations   42    
11.   Forward-Looking Information   43    

1. ADVISORIES

Basis of Presentation

Unless otherwise noted, all financial information has been prepared in accordance with Canadian generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), specifically International Accounting Standard (IAS) 34 Interim Financial Reporting as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB), which is within the framework of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) as issued by the IASB.

All financial information is reported in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise noted. Production volumes are presented on a working-interest basis, before royalties, except for Libya, which is on an economic basis.

References to Oil Sands operations exclude Suncor's interests in Fort Hills and Syncrude.

Non-GAAP Financial Measures

Certain financial measures in this MD&A – namely operating earnings (loss), funds from (used in) operations, return on capital employed (ROCE), Oil Sands operations cash operating costs, Fort Hills cash operating costs, Syncrude cash operating costs, refining and marketing margin, refining operating expense, free funds flow, discretionary free funds flow, and last-in, first-out (LIFO) inventory valuation methodology and related per share or per barrel amounts – are not prescribed by GAAP. Operating earnings (loss) is defined in the Non-GAAP Financial Measures Advisory section of this MD&A and reconciled to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the Consolidated Financial Information and Segment Results and Analysis sections of this MD&A. Oil Sands operations cash operating costs, Fort Hills cash operating costs, Syncrude cash operating

2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.  7

costs and LIFO are defined in the Non-GAAP Financial Measures Advisory section of this MD&A and reconciled to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the Segment Results and Analysis section of this MD&A. Funds from (used in) operations, ROCE, free funds flow, discretionary free funds flow, refining and marketing margin, and refining operating expense are defined and reconciled, where applicable, to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the Non-GAAP Financial Measures Advisory section of this MD&A.

Risk Factors and Forward-Looking Information

The company's business, reserves, financial condition and results of operations may be affected by a number of factors, including, but not limited to, the factors described below and within the Forward-Looking Information section of this MD&A. This MD&A contains forward-looking information based on Suncor's current expectations, estimates, projections and assumptions. This information is subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those discussed in this MD&A, the 2019 annual MD&A and Suncor's other disclosure documents filed with Canadian securities regulatory authorities and the SEC, many of which are beyond the company's control. Users of this information are cautioned that actual results may differ materially. Refer to the Forward-Looking Information section of this MD&A for information on the material risk factors and assumptions underlying our forward-looking information contained in this MD&A.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Suncor's business, financial condition and results of operations could be materially and adversely affected by the outbreak of epidemics, pandemics and other public health crises in geographic areas in which we have operations, suppliers, customers or employees, including the recent global outbreak of COVID-19. The recent COVID-19 pandemic, and actions that may be taken by governmental authorities in response thereto, has resulted, and may continue to result in, among other things: increased volatility in financial markets and foreign currency exchange rates; disruptions to global supply chains; labour shortages; reductions in trade volumes; temporary operational restrictions and restrictions on gatherings greater than a certain number of individuals, shelter-in- place declarations and quarantine orders, business closures and travel bans; an overall slowdown in the global economy; political and economic instability; and civil unrest. In particular, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in, and may continue to result in, a reduction in the demand for, and prices of, commodities that are closely linked to Suncor's financial performance, including crude oil, refined petroleum products (such as jet fuel and gasoline), natural gas and electricity, and also increases the risk that storage for crude oil and refined petroleum products could reach capacity in certain geographic locations in which we operate. A prolonged period of decreased demand for, and prices of, these commodities, and any applicable storage constraints, could also result in us voluntarily curtailing or shutting in production and a decrease in our refined product volumes and refinery utilization rates, which could adversely impact our business, financial condition and results of operations. Suncor is also subject to risks relating to the health and safety of our people, as well as the potential for a slowdown or temporary suspension of our operations in locations impacted by an outbreak, increased labour and fuel costs, and regulatory changes. Such a suspension in operations could also be mandated by governmental authorities in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This could negatively impact Suncor's production or refined product volumes and refinery utilization rates for a sustained period of time, which would adversely impact our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Continued Weakness and Volatility in Commodity and Petroleum Products Prices

Recent market events and conditions, including excess global crude oil and petroleum products supply as a result of decreased global demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic and actions taken by OPEC+ countries to set and maintain increased production levels during March and April of 2020 have caused significant weakness and volatility in commodity and petroleum products prices. Notwithstanding recent agreements among OPEC+ countries to reduce production levels, commodity prices could remain under pressure for a prolonged period and be volatile. This could result in reduced utilization and/or the suspension of operations at certain of our facilities, buyers of our products declaring force majeure or bankruptcy, the unavailability of storage, and disruptions of pipeline and other transportation systems for our products, which would further negatively impact Suncor's production or refined product volumes, and could adversely impact our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Recent Developments

On January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern and, on March 10, 2020, declared it to be a pandemic. Actions taken around the world to help mitigate the spread of COVID-19 include restrictions on travel, quarantines in certain areas, and forced closures for certain types of public places and businesses. These measures have and will continue to have significant disruption to business operations and a significant increase in economic uncertainty, with reduced demand for commodities leading to volatile

8  2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.

prices and currency exchange rates, and a decline in long-term interest rates. Our operations and business are particularly sensitive to a reduction in the demand for, and prices of, commodities that are closely linked to Suncor's financial performance, including crude oil, refined petroleum products (such as jet fuel and gasoline), natural gas and electricity. The potential direct and indirect impacts of the economic downturn have been considered in management's estimates, and assumptions at period end have been reflected in our results with any significant changes described in the relevant notes to the company's unaudited interim Consolidated Financial Statements for the three months ended March 31, 2020.

The COVID-19 pandemic is an evolving situation that will continue to have widespread implications for our business environment, operations and financial condition.

The company has taken action to address the decline in demand by pacing our operations to meet current demand levels, flexing product mix from gasoline to diesel, leveraging our midstream, trading and marketing expertise, and maximizing upstream production integration with our refineries. In addition, the company has strengthened its liquidity in the first quarter of 2020 and will continue to take the necessary actions to protect the financial health of the company and the safety of our people, customers and communities.

The guidance revisions announced on May 5, 2020, in conjunction with those announced on March 23, 2020, reflect the challenge in determining the duration of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. These include reductions to the company's capital program and annual operating expenditures across the business and, in response to the rapid reduction in refined product demand, reductions to the company's refinery utilization rates and total Oil Sands volumes to align to downstream utilizations.

The pace of an economic recovery is challenging to determine with the overall outlook for oil demand dependent on how successful nations are at combating the pandemic and loosening social restrictions. The company expects its financial results for the year to experience a material decline relative to the results in Suncor's audited Consolidated Financial Statements for the year ended December 31, 2019. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, since March 31, 2020, as expected there have been further declines in crude oil and refined product demand and pricing, which will impact the company's second quarter results.

Measurement Conversions

Certain crude oil and natural gas liquids volumes have been converted to mcfe on the basis of one bbl to six mcf. Also, certain natural gas volumes have been converted to boe or mboe on the same basis. Any figure presented in mcfe, boe or mboe may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A conversion ratio of one bbl of crude oil or natural gas liquids to six mcf of natural gas is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value.

Common Abbreviations

For a list of abbreviations that may be used in this MD&A, refer to the Common Abbreviations section of this MD&A.

2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.  9

2. FIRST QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS

First quarter financial results  

Suncor's first quarter 2020 operating loss(1) was $309 million ($0.20 per common share), including a FIFO loss of $446 million after-tax, compared to operating earnings of $1.209 billion ($0.77 per common share) in the prior year quarter. In the first quarter of 2020, crude oil and refined product realizations declined significantly due to the decline in global commodity benchmarks and demand as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and OPEC+'s initial plan to increase production. The weak business environment further impacted the operating loss due to a net inventory valuation loss, with the FIFO loss as a result of the declining value of refinery feedstock costs, partially offset by the elimination of intersegment losses on inventory. The operating loss in the current quarter compared to operating earnings in the prior year quarter was further impacted by the absence of insurance proceeds related to the company's assets in Libya which were recognized in the prior year quarter.

Suncor's net loss was $3.525 billion ($2.31 per common share) in the first quarter of 2020, compared to net earnings of $1.470 billion ($0.93 per common share) in the prior year quarter. In addition to the factors impacting operating (loss) earnings discussed above, the net loss for the first quarter of 2020 included $1.798 billion of non-cash after-tax asset impairment charges, a $1.021 billion unrealized after-tax foreign exchange loss on the revaluation of U.S. dollar denominated debt and a $397 million after-tax hydrocarbon inventory write-down to net realizable value. Net earnings in the prior year quarter included an unrealized after-tax foreign exchange gain of $261 million on the revaluation of U.S. dollar denominated debt.

Funds from operations(1) were $1.001 billion ($0.66 per common share) in the first quarter of 2020, compared to $2.585 billion ($1.64 per common share) in the first quarter of 2019, and were influenced primarily by the same factors impacting operating (loss) earnings noted above. Cash flow provided by operating activities, which includes changes in non-cash working capital, was $1.384 billion ($0.91 per common share) for the first quarter of 2020, compared to $1.548 billion ($0.98 per common share) for the first quarter of 2019.

Value over volume across all assets. In response to changing market conditions, the company leveraged the flexibility of its integrated asset base with a continued focus on value over volume across the company's assets. The company was able to maximize price realizations by shifting its upstream product mix towards higher priced light crude and its refined product mix towards higher value distillate. This included SCO production of 503,600 bbls/d in the first quarter of 2020, the third best quarter of SCO production in the company's history. While the company's physically integrated model naturally mitigates a portion of price volatility, the company also generated a marketing and logistics value add of $225 million after-tax.

Exploration and Production (E&P) production during the first quarter of 2020 increased to 109,700 boe/d from 107,100 boe/d in the prior year quarter. The increase was primarily due to higher production at Hebron, which increased to 29,600 bbls/d, from 18,300 bbls/d in the prior year quarter, with six new production wells coming online throughout 2019, and at Oda, which ramped up production to 8,000 boe/d after achieving first oil in the first quarter of 2019.

Refining and Marketing (R&M) refinery utilization averaged 95% for the quarter. R&M delivered quarterly crude throughput of 439,500 bbls/d and refined product sales of 531,500 bbls/d in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 444,900 bbls/d and 542,800 bbls/d, respectively, in the prior year quarter. Refinery utilization and product sales were negatively impacted towards the end of the quarter, as demand for transportation fuels declined as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Enhanced liquidity and financial flexibility. In the first quarter of 2020, the company enhanced its liquidity by securing an additional $2.5 billion of credit facilities for a 24-month term and, as at March 31, 2020, had approximately $8.1 billion of liquidity. Subsequent to the first quarter of 2020, the company issued $1.25 billion of 5.00% senior 10-year unsecured medium term notes and secured $300 million in additional credit facilities. This increased financial flexibility will help ensure the company has access to adequate financial resources should it be required.

Returning value to shareholders. The company repurchased $307 million of its common shares in the first quarter of 2020. Given the current business environment and aligned with our disciplined capital allocation strategy, share repurchases have been suspended and the company has elected to not renew its normal course issuer bid (NCIB). Subsequent to the end of the quarter, and in order to maintain the financial health and resiliency of the company, Suncor's Board of Directors approved a reduction in the company's quarterly dividend to $0.21 per common share from $0.465 per common share. This dividend will be payable on June 25, 2020 to shareholders of record at the close of business on June 4, 2020. Combined with the sustaining capital and operating cost reductions, the cash break-even price to cover operating costs, sustaining capital and dividends has been reduced to approximately WTI US$35/bbl.

   

(1)
Non-GAAP financial measures. See the Non-GAAP Financial Measures Advisory section of this MD&A.
10  2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.

3. CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL INFORMATION

Financial Highlights

  Three months ended
March 31
   

($ millions)

  2020   2019    

Net (loss) earnings

           

Oil Sands

  (1 953 ) 189    

Exploration and Production

  (427 ) 492    

Refining and Marketing

  (55 ) 1 009    

Corporate and Eliminations

  (1 090 ) (220 )  

Total

  (3 525 ) 1 470    

Operating (loss) earnings(1)

           

Oil Sands

  (400 ) 189    

Exploration and Production

  (5 ) 492    

Refining and Marketing

  165   1 009    

Corporate and Eliminations

  (69 ) (481 )  

Total

  (309 ) 1 209    

Funds from (used in) operations(1)

           

Oil Sands

  691   1 184    

Exploration and Production

  173   702    

Refining and Marketing

  224   1 253    

Corporate and Eliminations

  (87 ) (554 )  

Total

  1 001   2 585    

Decrease (increase) in non-cash working capital

  383   (1 037 )  

Cash flow provided by operating activities

  1 384   1 548    

Capital and exploration expenditures(2)

           

Asset sustainment and maintenance

  739   419    

Economic investment

  543   456    

Total

  1 282   875    


  Three months ended
March 31
   

($ millions)

  2020   2019    

Discretionary free funds flow(1)

  (462 ) 1 489    
(1)
Non-GAAP financial measures. See the Non-GAAP Financial Measures Advisory section of this MD&A.

(2)
Excludes capitalized interest of $38 million in the first quarter of 2020 and $28 million in the first quarter of 2019.
2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.  11

Operating Highlights

  Three months ended
March 31
   

  2020   2019    

Production volumes by segment

           

Oil Sands – SCO (mbbls/d)

  503.6   523.4    

Oil Sands – Bitumen (mbbls/d)

  126.5   133.8    

Exploration and Production (mboe/d)

  109.7   107.1    

Total (mboe/d)

  739.8   764.3    

Refinery utilization (%)

  95   96    

Refinery crude oil processed (mbbls/d)

  439.5   444.9    

Net (Loss) Earnings

Suncor's consolidated net loss for the first quarter of 2020 was $3.525 billion, compared to net earnings of $1.470 billion for the prior year quarter. The net loss was primarily caused by the same factors that resulted in the operating loss described subsequently in this section of this MD&A.

Other items affecting net (loss) earnings over these periods included:

The after-tax unrealized foreign exchange loss on the revaluation of U.S. dollar denominated debt was $1.021 billion for the first quarter of 2020, compared to a gain of $261 million for the first quarter of 2019.

During the first quarter of 2020, the company recorded non-cash after-tax impairment charges of $1.376 billion on its share of the Fort Hills assets, in the Oil Sands segment, and $422 million against its share of the White Rose and Terra Nova assets, in the E&P segment, due to a decline in forecasted crude oil prices as a result of decreased global demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic and changes to their respective capital, operating and production plans. Refer to the Segment Results and Analysis section of this MD&A for further details on this item.

During the first quarter of 2020, the company recorded an after-tax inventory write-down to net realizable value of $177 million in the Oil Sands segment and $220 million in the R&M segment as a result of a significant decline in benchmarks and demand for crude oil and refined products due to COVID-19 mitigation efforts.

Operating (Loss) Earnings Reconciliation(1)

  Three months ended
March 31
   

($ millions)

  2020   2019    

Net (loss) earnings

  (3 525 ) 1 470    

Unrealized foreign exchange loss (gain) on U.S. dollar denominated debt

  1 021   (261 )  

Asset impairment(2)

  1 798      

Inventory write-down to net realizable value(3)

  397      

Operating (loss) earnings(1)

  (309 ) 1 209    
(1)
Operating (loss) earnings is a non-GAAP financial measure. All reconciling items are presented on an after-tax basis. See the Non-GAAP Financial Measures Advisory section of this MD&A.

(2)
During the first quarter of 2020, the company recorded non-cash after-tax impairment charges of $1.376 billion on its share of the Fort Hills assets, in the Oil Sands segment, and $422 million against its share of the White Rose and Terra Nova assets, in the E&P segment, due to a decline in forecasted crude oil prices as a result of decreased global demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic and changes to their respective capital, operating and production plans. Refer to the Segment Results and Analysis section of this MD&A for further details on this item.

(3)
During the first quarter of 2020, the company recorded an after-tax inventory write-down to net realizable value of $177 million in the Oil Sands segment and $220 million in the R&M segment as a result of a significant decline in benchmarks and demand for crude oil and refined products due to COVID-19 mitigation efforts.
12  2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.

Bridge Analysis of Operating Earnings (Loss) ($ millions)(1)

GRAPHIC

(1)
For an explanation of this bridge analysis, see the Non-GAAP Financial Measures Advisory section of this MD&A.

Suncor's first quarter 2020 operating loss was $309 million ($0.20 per common share), compared to operating earnings of $1.209 billion ($0.77 per common share) in the prior year quarter. In the first quarter of 2020, crude oil and refined product realizations declined significantly due to the decline in global commodity benchmarks and demand as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and OPEC+'s initial plan to increase production. The weak business environment further impacted the operating loss due to a net inventory valuation loss, with the FIFO loss as a result of the declining value of refinery feedstock costs, partially offset by the elimination of intersegment losses on inventory. The operating loss in the current quarter compared to operating earnings in the prior year quarter was further impacted by the absence of insurance proceeds related to the company's assets in Libya which were recognized in the prior year quarter.

After-Tax Share-Based Compensation (Recovery) Expense by Segment

  Three months ended
March 31
   

($ millions)

  2020   2019    

Oil Sands

  (15 ) 31    

Exploration and Production

  (2 ) 3    

Refining and Marketing

  (9 ) 18    

Corporate and Eliminations

  (36 ) 72    

Total share-based compensation (recovery) expense

  (62 ) 124    

The after-tax share-based compensation impact on results was a recovery of $62 million during the first quarter of 2020, compared to an expense of $124 million during the prior year quarter, as a result of a decrease in the company's share price through the period, compared to an increase in the prior year quarter.

2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.  13


Business Environment

Commodity prices, refining crack spreads and foreign exchange rates are important factors that affect the results of Suncor's operations.

  Average for the three months ended
March 31
   

      2020   2019    

WTI crude oil at Cushing

  US$/bbl   46.10   54.90    

Dated Brent crude

  US$/bbl   50.15   63.20    

Dated Brent/Maya crude oil FOB price differential

  US$/bbl   15.95   5.00    

MSW at Edmonton

  Cdn$/bbl   52.00   66.45    

WCS at Hardisty

  US$/bbl   25.60   42.50    

Light/heavy differential for WTI at Cushing less WCS at Hardisty

  US$/bbl   (20.50 ) (12.40 )  

SYN-WTI differential

  US$/bbl   (2.70 ) (2.30 )  

Condensate at Edmonton

  US$/bbl   46.20   50.55    

Natural gas (Alberta spot) at AECO

  Cdn$/mcf   2.05   2.55    

Alberta Power Pool Price

  Cdn$/MWh   67.05   70.75    

New York Harbor 2-1-1 crack(1)

  US$/bbl   14.75   19.10    

Chicago 2-1-1 crack(1)

  US$/bbl   9.75   15.30    

Portland 2-1-1 crack(1)

  US$/bbl   18.30   19.35    

Gulf Coast 2-1-1 crack(1)

  US$/bbl   13.00   17.85    

Exchange rate

  US$/Cdn$   0.74   0.75    

Exchange rate (end of period)

  US$/Cdn$   0.71   0.75    
(1)
2-1-1 crack spreads are indicators of the refining margin generated by converting two barrels of WTI into one barrel of gasoline and one barrel of diesel. The crack spreads presented here generally approximate the regions into which the company sells refined products through retail and wholesale channels.

In the first quarter of 2020, actions taken around the world to mitigate the spread of COVID-19, combined with OPEC+'s initial plan to increase global supply resulted in significant weakness and volatility in commodity prices. The simultaneous demand and supply shocks significantly impacted the crude oil and refined product benchmarks in the latter part of the first quarter of 2020, compared to the prior year quarter.

Suncor's sweet SCO price realizations are influenced primarily by the price of WTI at Cushing and by the supply and demand for sweet SCO from Western Canada, which influences SCO differentials. Price realizations in the first quarter of 2020 for SCO were unfavourably impacted by a decrease in WTI at Cushing to an average of US$46.10/bbl, compared to US$54.90/bbl in the prior year quarter, and the widening of SCO differentials in the current quarter. Suncor also produces sour SCO, the price of which is influenced by various crude benchmarks, including, but not limited to, MSW at Edmonton and WCS at Hardisty, and which can also be affected by prices negotiated for spot sales. Prices for MSW at Edmonton decreased to $52.00/bbl in the first quarter of 2020 compared to $66.45/bbl in the prior year quarter, and prices for WCS at Hardisty decreased to an average of US$25.60/bbl in the first quarter of 2020, from US$42.50/bbl in the prior year quarter.

Bitumen production that Suncor does not upgrade is blended with diluent or SCO to facilitate delivery on pipeline systems. Net bitumen price realizations are, therefore, influenced by both prices for Canadian heavy crude oil (WCS at Hardisty is a common reference), prices for diluent (Condensate at Edmonton) and SCO. Bitumen price realizations can also be affected by bitumen quality and spot sales. Bitumen prices were unfavourably impacted by the significant widening of heavy crude oil differentials in the first quarter of 2020 and the comparable strength of diluent pricing.

Suncor's price realizations for production from East Coast Canada and International assets are influenced primarily by the price for Brent crude, which decreased to US$50.15/bbl in the first quarter of 2020, compared to US$63.20/bbl in the prior year quarter.

Suncor's refining and marketing margins are primarily influenced by 2-1-1 benchmark crack spreads, which are industry indicators approximating the gross margin on a barrel of crude oil that is refined to produce gasoline and distillates. Market crack spreads are based on quoted near-month contracts for WTI and spot prices for gasoline and diesel and do not

14  2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.

necessarily reflect the margins at a specific refinery. Suncor's realized refining and marketing margins are influenced by actual crude oil feedstock costs, refinery configuration, product mix and realized marketing prices unique to Suncor's refining and marketing business.

Suncor has designed an indicative 5-2-2-1 index based on publicly available pricing data to more accurately reflect Suncor's actual realized refining and marketing margins. The internal index is a single value that approximates the gross margin on five barrels of crude oil of varying grades that is refined to produce two barrels of both gasoline and distillate and one barrel of secondary product to reflect Suncor's unique set of refinery configurations and overall crude slate and product mix, as well as the benefit of its location, quality and grade differentials. The internal index is calculated by taking the product value of refined products less the crude value of refinery feedstock excluding the impact of FIFO accounting. The product value is influenced by New York Harbor 2-1-1 crack, Chicago 2-1-1 crack, WTI benchmarks and seasonal factors. The seasonal factor is an estimate of US$6.50/bbl in the first and fourth quarters and US$5.00/bbl in the second and third quarters and reflects the location, quality, and grade differentials for refined products sold in the company's core markets during the winter and summer months, respectively. The crude value is influenced by SYN, WCS, and WTI benchmarks.

Crack spreads are based on current crude feedstock prices, whereas actual earnings are accounted for on a FIFO basis in accordance with IFRS where a delay exists between the time that feedstock is purchased and when it is processed and when products are sold to a third party. A FIFO loss normally reflects a declining price environment for crude oil and finished products, whereas FIFO gains reflect an increasing price environment for crude oil and finished products. The company's realized refining and marketing margins are also presented on a LIFO basis, which is consistent with how industry benchmarks and the Suncor 5-2-2-1 index are calculated and with how management evaluates performance.

In the first quarter of 2020, the 2-1-1 benchmark crack spreads declined compared to the prior year quarter due to decreased demand for transportation fuels at the end of the quarter, particularly gasoline and jet fuel, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Suncor 5-2-2-1 index was US$25.60/bbl in the first quarter of 2020, compared to US$26.15/bbl in the first quarter of 2019, as widening crude differentials were more than offset by lower benchmark cracking margins.

The cost of natural gas used in Suncor's Oil Sands and Refining operations is primarily referenced to Alberta spot prices at AECO. The average AECO benchmark decreased to $2.05/mcf in the first quarter of 2020, from $2.55/mcf in the prior year quarter.

Excess electricity produced in Suncor's Oil Sands operations and at Fort Hills is sold to the Alberta Electric System Operator, with the proceeds netted against the cash operating cost per barrel metric. The Alberta power pool price decreased to an average of $67.05/MWh in the first quarter of 2020, compared to $70.75/MWh in the prior year quarter.

The majority of Suncor's revenues from the sale of oil and natural gas commodities are based on prices that are determined by or referenced to U.S. dollar benchmark prices, while the majority of Suncor's expenditures are realized in Canadian dollars. The Canadian dollar weakened in relation to the U.S. dollar in the first quarter of 2020, as the average exchange rate decreased to US$0.74 per one Canadian dollar from US$0.75 per one Canadian dollar in the prior year quarter. This rate decrease had a positive impact on price realizations for the company during the first quarter of 2020 when compared to the prior year quarter.

Suncor also has assets and liabilities, including approximately 69% of the company's debt, that are denominated in U.S. dollars and translated to Suncor's reporting currency (Canadian dollars) at each balance sheet date. A decrease in the value of the Canadian dollar, relative to the U.S. dollar, from the previous balance sheet date increases the amount of Canadian dollars required to settle U.S. dollar denominated obligations, while an increase in the value of the Canadian dollar, relative to the U.S. dollar, decreases the amount of Canadian dollars required to settle U.S. dollar denominated obligations.

2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.  15

4. SEGMENT RESULTS AND ANALYSIS

OIL SANDS

Financial Highlights

  Three months ended
March 31
   

($ millions)

  2020   2019    

Gross revenues

  3 317   4 181    

Less: Royalties

  (25 ) (198 )  

Operating revenues, net of royalties

  3 292   3 983    

Net (loss) earnings

  (1 953 ) 189    

Adjusted for:

           

Impairment(1)

  1 376      

Inventory write-down to net realizable value(2)

  177      

Operating (loss) earnings(3)

  (400 ) 189    

Funds from operations(3)

  691   1 184    
(1)
During the first quarter of 2020, the company recorded non-cash after-tax impairment charges of $1.376 billion on its share of the Fort Hills assets due to a decline in forecasted crude oil prices as a result of decreased global demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic and changes to its respective capital, operating and production plans.

(2)
During the first quarter of 2020, the company recorded an after-tax inventory write-down to net realizable value of $177 million as a result of a significant decline in benchmarks and demand for crude oil and refined products due to COVID-19 mitigation efforts.

(3)
Non-GAAP financial measures. See the Non-GAAP Financial Measures Advisory section of this MD&A.

Bridge Analysis of Operating Earnings (Loss) ($ millions)(1)

GRAPHIC

(1)
For an explanation of this bridge analysis, see the Non-GAAP Financial Measures Advisory section of this MD&A.

The Oil Sands segment had an operating loss of $400 million in the first quarter of 2020, compared to operating earnings of $189 million in the prior year quarter. The decrease was primarily due to significantly lower realized crude prices driven by declining demand due to COVID-19 mitigation measures and OPEC+'s initial plan to increase production, partially offset by marketing and logistics gains and lower royalties as a result of lower realized crude prices.

16  2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.


Production Volumes(1)

  Three months ended
March 31
   

(mbbls/d)

  2020   2019    

Upgraded product (SCO and diesel)

  342.0   350.2    

Internally consumed diesel(2)

  (10.2 ) (9.0 )  

Total Oil Sands operations upgraded product

  331.8   341.2    

In Situ non-upgraded bitumen

  45.8   55.4    

Total Oil Sands operations production

  377.6   396.6    

Fort Hills bitumen

  80.7   78.4    

Total Fort Hills bitumen production

  80.7   78.4    

Syncrude (sweet SCO and diesel)

  174.4   184.9    

Internally consumed diesel(2)

  (2.6 ) (2.7 )  

Total Syncrude production

  171.8   182.2    

Total Oil Sands production

  630.1   657.2    
(1)
Bitumen production from Oil Sands Base is upgraded, while bitumen production from In Situ operations is either upgraded or sold directly to customers, including Suncor's own refineries, with SCO and diesel yields of approximately 79% of bitumen feedstock input. Fort Hills finished bitumen is sold directly to customers. Essentially all of the bitumen produced at Syncrude is upgraded to sweet SCO and a small amount of diesel, at an approximate yield of 85%.

(2)
Both Oil Sands operations and Syncrude produce diesel, which is internally consumed in mining operations, and Fort Hills uses internally produced diesel from Oil Sands Base within its mining operations. Of the 10,200 bbls/d of internally consumed diesel at Oil Sands operations in the first quarter of 2020, 8,500 bbls/d was consumed at Oil Sands Base and 1,700 bbls/d, net, was consumed at Fort Hills. Oil Sands operations utilization rates are calculated using gross production. Syncrude utilization rates are calculated using intermediate sour production.

Oil Sands operations production was 377,600 bbls/d in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 396,600 bbls/d in the prior year quarter. The decrease in production was primarily due to the outage and planned maintenance at MacKay River. Due to COVID-19 concerns, MacKay River's planned return to service date has been deferred to the latter part of the second quarter of 2020. The company continued to focus on value over volume by diverting available bitumen production to upgrading to produce higher value SCO barrels, with Oil Sands operations achieving upgrader utilization rates of 98% and 100%, in the first quarter of 2020 and first quarter of 2019, respectively. In the first quarter of 2020, Oil Sands operations produced 331,800 bbls/d of SCO, compared to 341,200 bbls/d in the first quarter of 2019.

Through our regional synergies and asset flexibility we continued to maximize the value of our allotted barrels under the mandatory production curtailment program enacted by the Alberta government. Prior to the decline in demand associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, the company was able to optimize the transfer of its allotted curtailment credits among the company's assets while continuing to focus on higher value SCO production.

Suncor's share of production from Fort Hills was 80,700 bbls/d in the first quarter of 2020, comparable to 78,400 bbls/d in the prior year quarter, with both periods impacted by mandatory production curtailments.

Suncor's share of Syncrude production was 171,800 bbls/d in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 182,200 bbls/d in the prior year quarter, with production in the first quarter of 2020 impacted by unplanned maintenance, which was partially completed in the first quarter of 2020 with the remainder completed in the second quarter of 2020. Prior to the unplanned maintenance, the company was able to optimize production by internally transferring and purchasing third-party curtailment credits.

2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.  17


Sales Volumes

  Three months ended
March 31
   

(mbbls/d)

  2020   2019    

Oil Sands operations sales volumes

           

Sweet SCO

  126.8   113.7    

Diesel

  33.1   29.0    

Sour SCO

  180.8   182.4    

Upgraded product

  340.7   325.1    

In Situ non-upgraded bitumen

  42.4   53.2    

Oil Sands operations

  383.1   378.3    

Fort Hills bitumen

  85.1   78.7    

Syncrude

  171.8   182.2    

Total

  640.0   639.2    

Sales volumes for Oil Sands operations were 383,100 bbls/d in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 378,300 bbls/d in the prior year quarter, and were influenced by the same factors influencing production in addition to a build in inventory associated with the timing of sales in the prior year quarter.

Bitumen sales at Fort Hills increased to 85,100 bbls/d, net to Suncor, in the first quarter of 2020, from 78,700 bbls/d in the prior year quarter, consistent with the increase in production in addition to a draw in inventory.

Bitumen Production

  Three months ended
March 31
   

  2020   2019    

Oil Sands Base

           

Bitumen production (mbbls/d)

  285.3   267.8    

Bitumen ore mined (thousands of tonnes per day)

  448.4   399.7    

Bitumen ore grade quality (bbls/tonne)

  0.64   0.67    

In Situ

           

Bitumen production – Firebag (mbbls/d)

  190.3   189.4    

Steam-to-oil ratio – Firebag

  2.5   2.8    

Bitumen production – MacKay River (mbbls/d)

    35.2    

Steam-to-oil ratio – MacKay River

    3.1    

Total In Situ bitumen production (mbbls/d)

  190.3   224.6    

Total Oil Sands operations bitumen production (mbbls/d)

  475.6   492.4    

Fort Hills

           

Bitumen production (mbbls/d)

  80.7   78.4    

Bitumen ore mined (thousands of tonnes per day)

  136.7   131.4    

Bitumen ore grade quality (bbls/tonne)

  0.59   0.60    

Syncrude

           

Bitumen production (mbbls/d)

  202.4   210.6    

Bitumen ore mined (thousands of tonnes per day)

  322.9   341.7    

Bitumen ore grade quality (bbls/tonne)

  0.63   0.62    

Total Oil Sands bitumen production

  758.7   781.4    
18  2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.

Bitumen production at Oil Sands operations decreased in the first quarter of 2020 to 475,600 bbls/d, compared to 492,400 bbls/d in the prior year quarter. The decrease was primarily due to the continued outage and planned maintenance at MacKay River, which is expected to return to operation in the latter part of the second quarter of 2020, and which was partially offset by increased production at Oil Sands Base.

Bitumen production at Syncrude in the first quarter of 2020 decreased to 202,400 bbls/d, net to Suncor, from 210,600 bbls/d in the prior year quarter. The decrease was primarily due to unplanned maintenance, which was partially completed in the first quarter of 2020 with the remainder completed in the second quarter of 2020. Prior to the outage, the company was able to partially mitigate the impacts of curtailment on production by internally transferring and purchasing third-party curtailment credits.

Price Realizations

Net of transportation costs, but before royalties

  Three months ended
March 31
   

($/bbl)

  2020   2019    

Oil Sands operations

           

SCO and diesel

  52.48   64.90    

Bitumen

  3.72   41.59    

Crude sales basket (all products)

  47.09   61.62    

Crude sales basket, relative to WTI

  (14.86 ) (11.58 )  

Fort Hills bitumen

  12.64   49.95    

Syncrude – sweet SCO

  57.98   67.90    

Syncrude, relative to WTI

  (3.97 ) (5.30 )  

In the first quarter of 2020, Oil Sands price realizations for all assets were impacted by the significant decline in global crude oil prices and demand as a result of COVID-19 mitigation efforts and OPEC+'s initial plans to increase global oil supply, partially offset by the favourable impact of a weakening Canadian dollar.

Price realizations were further impacted by:

Fort Hills and In Situ bitumen price realizations were unfavourably impacted by significant widening of heavy crude oil differentials and the comparable strength of diluent pricing in the current quarter, compared to the prior year quarter. Average price realizations for Fort Hills bitumen were higher than In Situ bitumen due to a higher proportion of sales being made in the U.S. mid-continent and the U.S. Gulf Coast, where Suncor is able to utilize its marketing and logistics network to access favourable pricing in the U.S. market, combined with the higher quality associated with paraffinic froth-treated bitumen produced at Fort Hills.

Syncrude sales volumes were weighted favourably towards the beginning of the quarter when crude benchmarks and differentials were higher, which improved the Syncrude realizations compared to Suncor's SCO sales.

Royalties

Royalties for the Oil Sands segment were lower in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the prior year quarter, primarily due to lower crude price realizations.

Expenses and Other Factors

Total Oil Sands operating and transportation expenses increased in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the prior year quarter, as described in detail below. See the reconciliation in the Cash Operating Costs section below for further details regarding cash operating costs and a breakdown of non-production costs by asset.

At Oil Sands operations, operating costs increased compared to the prior year quarter, primarily due to higher sales volumes and higher contractor mining costs. The increase was partially offset by a decrease in operating costs associated with the MacKay River outage, lower commodity costs and a share-based compensation recovery compared to a share-based compensation expense in the prior year quarter.

At Fort Hills, operating costs in the first quarter of 2020 increased when compared to the prior year quarter, primarily due to higher mine tonnage and overburden removal costs associated with increased sales volumes, partially offset by lower commodity costs.

2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.  19

Suncor's share of Syncrude operating costs, in the first quarter of 2020, were comparable to the prior year quarter.

DD&A expense for the first quarter of 2020 was higher compared to the prior year due to higher derecognition charges in the first quarter of 2020 associated with the cancellation of projects due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Non-Cash Inventory Write-Down to Net Realizable Value

The first quarter of 2020 included an inventory write-down to net realizable value of $240 million ($177 million after-tax) primarily impacting Oil Sands operations and Fort Hills as a result of a significant decline in benchmarks and demand for crude oil and refined products due to COVID-19 mitigation efforts.

Cash Operating Costs

  Three months ended
March 31
   

($ millions, except as noted)

  2020   2019    

Oil Sands operating, selling and general expense (OS&G)

  2 252   1 973    

Oil Sands operations cash operating costs(1) reconciliation

           

Oil Sands operations OS&G

  1 303   1 121    

Non-production costs(2)

  (82 ) (57 )  

Excess power capacity and other(3)

  (91 ) (75 )  

Inventory changes

  (91 ) 85    

Oil Sands operations cash operating costs(1)

  1 039   1 074    

Oil Sands operations cash operating costs ($/bbl)(1)

  29.45   29.95    

Fort Hills cash operating costs(1) reconciliation

           

Fort Hills OS&G

  320   233    

Non-production costs(2)

  (28 ) (47 )  

Inventory changes

  (64 ) 23    

Fort Hills cash operating costs(1)

  228   209    

Fort Hills cash operating costs ($/bbl)(1)

  31.00   29.60    

Syncrude cash operating costs(1) reconciliation

           

Syncrude OS&G

  629   619    

Non-production costs(2)

  (47 ) (40 )  

Syncrude cash operating costs(1)(4)

  582   579    

Syncrude cash operating costs ($/bbl)(1)

  36.65   35.35    
(1)
Non-GAAP financial measures. See the Non-GAAP Financial Measures Advisory section of this MD&A.

(2)
Significant non-production costs include, but are not limited to, share-based compensation expense and research expenses. Non-production costs at Fort Hills also include, but are not limited to, excess power revenue from cogeneration units and an adjustment to reflect internally produced diesel from Oil Sands operations at the cost of production.

(3)
Oil Sands operations excess power capacity and other includes, but is not limited to, the operational revenue impacts of excess power from a cogeneration unit and the natural gas expense recorded as part of a non-monetary arrangement involving a third-party processor.

(4)
Beginning in the first quarter of 2020, the company revised Syncrude cash operating costs to better align with the Oil Sands operations and Fort Hills cash operating costs methodology. Prior period Syncrude cash operating costs had previously included future development costs and have been restated to reflect this change.

Oil Sands operations cash operating costs(1) per barrel decreased to $29.45 in the first quarter of 2020, compared to $29.95 in the prior year quarter, primarily due to lower commodity costs, partially offset by an increase in contractor mining costs. Both periods reflected the impact of optimizing the product mix to higher cost but higher value SCO barrels, relative to lower cost, but lower value, bitumen production. Total Oil Sands operations cash operating costs were $1.039 billion, compared to $1.074 billion in the prior year quarter due to the same factors discussed above.

   

(1)
Non-GAAP financial measure. See the Non-GAAP Financial Measures Advisory section of this MD&A.
20  2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.

Excess power capacity and non-production costs increased compared to the prior year quarter, primarily due to safe-mode costs associated with the deferral of capital projects and additional costs incurred in response to COVID-19 mitigation efforts.

Oil Sands operations inventory changes in the first quarter of 2020 reflected a hydrocarbon inventory write-down to net realizable value as a result of the significant decline in crude oil benchmarks and demand due to COVID-19 mitigation efforts, and a draw of inventory volumes in the current quarter.

Fort Hills cash operating costs(1) per barrel were $31.00 in the first quarter of 2020, compared to $29.60 in the prior year quarter, reflecting higher total mine tonnage and overburden removal costs. The Fort Hills partners have agreed to reduce Fort Hills from operating two primary extraction trains to a one-train operation, running at full utilization. This is expected to increase funds flow, compared to running at full rates, as we are able to significantly reduce costs. By the fourth quarter of 2020, the company anticipates that Fort Hills will be fully operational on autonomous haul trucks, which should also provide the company with additional operational flexibility and lower costs.

In the first quarter of 2020, inventory changes at Fort Hills reflected a hydrocarbon inventory write-down to net realizable value as a result of the significant decline in crude benchmarks, and a draw of inventory volumes.

Syncrude cash operating costs(1) per barrel were $36.65 in the first quarter of 2020, compared to $35.35 in the prior year quarter, with the increase due primarily to the decrease in production volumes.

Non-Cash Asset Impairment

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a significant decrease in global demand for crude oil and commodity prices. In response, the company announced plans to reduce capital and operating costs, and to temporarily reduce Fort Hills from operating two primary extraction trains to a one-train operation. As a result of these events, the company performed an asset impairment test on its Fort Hills cash generating units (CGU) in its Oil Sands segment as at March 31, 2020. As a result of the impairment test, the company recorded a $1.376 billion (net of taxes of $0.44 billion) non-cash impairment on its share of the Fort Hills project using the following asset-specific assumptions:

WCS price forecast of US$9.00/bbl for the remainder of 2020, US$13.60/bbl in 2021, US$32.00/bbl in 2022, US$51.55/bbl in 2023 and US$52.90/bbl in 2024, escalating at 2% per year thereafter over the life of the project up to 2061, adjusted for asset-specific location and quality differentials;

the company's share of production at 47,000 bbls/d while the Fort Hills project operates on one primary extraction train for the remainder of 2020 through to 2021, and ramping up to two primary extraction trains during 2022 and then ranging from 96,000 to 106,000 bbls/d over the remaining life of the project;

Fort Hills cash operating costs averaging $32/bbl to $37/bbl while the Fort Hills project operates on one primary extraction train for the remainder of 2020 through to 2021, and ranging from $22/bbl to $24/bbl thereafter, as the project returns to two primary extraction trains over the remaining life of the project (expressed in real dollars). Fort Hills cash operating costs reflect operating, selling and general expenses adjusted for non-production costs, including share-based compensation, research costs, and excess power revenue; and

risk-adjusted discount rate of 7.5% (after-tax).

The recoverable amount of the Fort Hills CGU was $6.4 billion as at March 31, 2020. The recoverable amount estimate is most sensitive to price and discount rate. A 5% average decrease in price over the life of the project would have resulted in an increase to the impairment charge of approximately $1.1 billion (after-tax). A 1% increase in the discount rate would have resulted in an increase to the impairment charge of approximately $1.1 billion (after-tax) on the company's share of the Fort Hills assets.

Planned Maintenance Update

As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the company continues to assess planned maintenance schedules. Planned maintenance at Oil Sands operations Upgrader 1 is scheduled for the second and fourth quarters of 2020 and at Upgrader 2 in the second and third quarters of 2020. Planned maintenance at Syncrude is scheduled to occur in the second quarter of 2020. The anticipated impact of these maintenance events have been reflected in the company's 2020 guidance.

   

(1)
Non-GAAP financial measure. See the Non-GAAP Financial Measures Advisory section of this MD&A.
2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.  21

EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION

Financial Highlights

  Three months ended
March 31
   

($ millions)

  2020   2019    

Gross revenues(1)

  539   876    

Less: Royalties(1)

  (22 ) (112 )  

Operating revenues, net of royalties

  517   764    

Net (loss) earnings

  (427 ) 492    

Adjusted for:

           

Asset impairment(2)

  422      

Operating (loss) earnings(3)

  (5 ) 492    

Funds from operations(3)

  173   702    
(1)
Production, revenues and royalties from the company's Libya operations have been presented in the E&P section of this MD&A on an economic basis and exclude an equal and offsetting gross up of revenues and royalties of $61 million in the first quarter of 2019, which is required for presentation purposes in the company's financial statements under the working-interest basis. In the first quarter of 2020, there were no Libya sales included in production revenues or royalties.

(2)
During the first quarter of 2020, the company recorded non-cash after-tax impairment charges of $422 million against its share of the White Rose and Terra Nova assets due to a decline in forecasted crude oil prices as a result of decreased global demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic and changes to their respective capital, operating and production plans.

(3)
Non-GAAP financial measures. See the Non-GAAP Financial Measures Advisory section of this MD&A.

Bridge Analysis of Operating Earnings (Loss) ($ millions)(1)

GRAPHIC

(1)
For an explanation of this bridge analysis, see the Non-GAAP Financial Measures Advisory section of this MD&A.

Operating loss for the E&P segment in the first quarter of 2020 was $5 million, compared to operating earnings of $492 million in the prior year quarter, with the decline primarily due to the absence of insurance proceeds related to the company's assets in Libya which were recognized in the prior year quarter, significantly lower realized crude prices due to COVID-19 mitigation measures and OPEC+'s initial plans to increase global supply, decreased sales volumes and higher exploration expense, partially offset by lower royalties.

22  2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.


Production Volumes

  Three months ended
March 31
   

  2020   2019    

E&P Canada

           

Terra Nova (mbbls/d)

    13.2    

Hibernia (mbbls/d)

  25.1   25.7    

White Rose (mbbls/d)

  7.5   1.1    

Hebron (mbbls/d)

  29.6   18.3    

  62.2   58.3    

E&P International

           

Buzzard (mboe/d)

  31.3   36.7    

Golden Eagle (mboe/d)

  8.2   10.2    

Norway – Oda (mboe/d)

  8.0   0.2    

Libya (mbbls/d)

    1.7    

  47.5   48.8    

Total Production (mboe/d)

  109.7   107.1    

Total Sales Volumes (mboe/d)

  107.2   111.8    

Production volumes for E&P Canada were 62,200 boe/d in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 58,300 boe/d in the prior year quarter. The increase in production was primarily due to Hebron, as six new production wells came online throughout 2019, and White Rose, where a production interruption impacted volumes produced during the prior year quarter. The increase in production was partially offset by lower volumes at Terra Nova, reflecting the regulatory order to shut in production in the fourth quarter of 2019.

E&P International production was 47,500 boe/d in the first quarter of 2020, and was comparable to 48,800 boe/d in the prior year quarter. The first quarter of 2020 reflected increased production at Oda, which ramped up production to 8,000 boe/d after achieving first oil in the first quarter of 2019, which was more than offset by natural production declines in the U.K.

E&P sales volumes decreased to 107,200 boe/d in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 111,800 boe/d in the prior year quarter, due to the timing of sales volumes for E&P Canada.

Price Realizations

  Three months ended
March 31
   

Net of transportation costs, but before royalties

  2020   2019    

Exploration and Production

           

E&P Canada – Crude oil and natural gas liquids ($/bbl)

  67.37   84.60    

E&P International ($/boe)

  63.72   83.14    

Price realizations at E&P Canada and E&P International were impacted by the significant decline in global crude oil prices and demand as a result of COVID-19 mitigation efforts and OPEC+'s initial plans to increase global oil supply, partially offset by the favourable impact of a weakening Canadian dollar.

Royalties

E&P royalties in the first quarter of 2020 were lower than the prior year quarter due to the decrease in price realizations.

Expenses and Other Factors

Operating and transportation expenses for the first quarter of 2020 were comparable to the prior year quarter.

DD&A expense in the first quarter of 2020 was favourable when compared to the first quarter of 2019, primarily due to lower production rates in the U.K., partially offset by an increase in production in Norway.

2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.  23

Exploration expense in the first quarter of 2020 was higher than the prior year quarter as a result of exploration charges for non-commercial drilling in Norway and East Coast Canada. There are no additional planned exploration wells in 2020.

Non-Cash Asset Impairment

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a significant decrease in global demand for crude oil and commodity prices. In response to this, the company announced plans to reduce capital and operating costs. As a result of these events, the company performed asset impairment tests on certain CGUs in its E&P segment as at March 31, 2020 as the recoverable amount of these CGUs were most sensitive to the combined reduction in crude oil prices and changes to their respective capital and operating plans. The impairment tests were performed using recoverable amounts based on the fair value less cost of disposal. As a result of the impairment tests, the company recorded impairment of $285 million (net of taxes of $93 million) on its share of the Terra Nova assets and $137 million (net of taxes of $45 million) on its share of the White Rose assets using the following asset-specific assumptions:

Terra Nova assets:

Brent price forecast of US$30.00/bbl for the remainder of 2020, US$35.00/bbl in 2021, US$50.00/bbl in 2022 and US$69.00/bbl in 2023, escalating at 2% per year thereafter over the life of the project to 2031 and adjusted for asset-specific location and quality differentials;

the company's share of production of approximately 6,200 bbls/d over the life of the project, including the benefit of the Asset Life Extension project; and

risk-adjusted discount rate of 9.0% (after-tax).

The recoverable amount of the Terra Nova CGU is $24 million as at March 31, 2020.

White Rose assets:

Brent price forecast of US$30.00/bbl for the remainder of 2020, US$35.00/bbl in 2021, US$50.00/bbl in 2022 and US$69.00/bbl in 2023, escalating at 2% per year thereafter over the life of the project to 2036 and adjusted for asset-specific location and quality differentials;

the company's share of production of approximately 9,800 bbls/d over the life of the project;

the company's share of future capital expenditures of $1.435 billion, including the West White Rose expansion; and

risk-adjusted discount rate of 9.0% (after-tax).

The recoverable amount of the White Rose CGU is $185 million as at March 31, 2020. The recoverable amount estimate is most sensitive to price and discount rate. A 5% average decrease in price over the life of the project would have resulted in an increase to the impairment charge of approximately $83 million (after-tax). A 1% increase in the discount rate would have resulted in an increase to the impairment charge of approximately $45 million (after-tax) on the company's share of the White Rose assets.

Planned Maintenance Update for Operated Assets

There are no significant maintenance events scheduled for the second quarter of 2020. Suncor is currently evaluating alternate options for the Terra Nova Asset Life Extension, as Spain is no longer able to accommodate the planned dry dock work due to that country's COVID-19 response.

24  2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.

REFINING AND MARKETING

Financial Highlights

  Three months ended
March 31
   

($ millions)

  2020   2019    

Operating revenues

  4 587   5 204    

Net (loss) earnings

  (55 ) 1 009    

Adjusted for:

           

Inventory write-down to net realizable value(1)

  220      

Operating earnings(2)

  165   1 009    

Funds from operations(2)

  224   1 253    
(1)
During the first quarter of 2020, the company recorded an after-tax inventory write-down to net realizable value of $220 million as a result of a significant decline in benchmarks and demand for crude oil and refined products due to COVID-19 mitigation efforts.

(2)
Non-GAAP financial measures. See the Non-GAAP Financial Measures Advisory section of this MD&A.

Bridge Analysis of Operating Earnings ($ millions)(1)

GRAPHIC

(1)
For an explanation of this bridge analysis, see the Non-GAAP Financial Measures Advisory section of this MD&A.

R&M operating earnings in the first quarter of 2020 were $165 million, compared to $1.009 billion in the prior year quarter. The decrease was primarily due to a FIFO inventory valuation loss due to a significant decline in crude and refined product benchmarks compared to the prior year quarter, which included a FIFO inventory valuation gain. Operating earnings were positively impacted by higher refining and marketing margins, which existed for a majority of the quarter until the outbreak of COVID-19 intensified in Canada.

2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.  25

Volumes

  Three months ended
March 31
   

  2020   2019    

Crude oil processed (mbbls/d)

           

Eastern North America

  213.1   216.2    

Western North America

  226.4   228.7    

Total

  439.5   444.9    

Refinery utilization(1) (%)

           

Eastern North America

  96   97    

Western North America

  94   95    

Total

  95   96    

Refined product sales (mbbls/d)

           

Gasoline

  234.3   246.7    

Distillate

  228.7   221.8    

Other

  68.5   74.3    

Total

  531.5   542.8    

Refining and marketing margin – FIFO(2)(3) ($/bbl)

  23.35   49.65    

Refining and marketing margin – LIFO(2)(3) ($/bbl)

  35.60   35.25    

Refining operating expense(2) ($/bbl)

  5.65   5.60    
(1)
Refinery utilization is the amount of crude oil and natural gas plant liquids run through crude distillation units, expressed as a percentage of the capacity of these units.

(2)
Non-GAAP financial measures. See the Non-GAAP Financial Measures Advisory section of this MD&A.

(3)
Beginning in the first quarter of 2020, refining and marketing margins have been revised to better reflect the refining, product supply and rack forward businesses. Prior periods have been restated to reflect this change.

Refinery crude throughput was 439,500 bbls/d in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 444,900 bbls/d in the prior year quarter. Both periods achieved strong utilization rates at 95% and 96%, respectively. The company reduced refinery throughput at the end of the quarter as a result of the decrease in product demand associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Refined product sales in the first quarter of 2020 were 531,500 bbls/d, compared with 542,800 bbls/d in the prior year quarter with the decrease primarily attributable to a significant decline in demand late in the quarter due to COVID-19 mitigation efforts. In response to the decline in demand for transportation fuels late in the quarter, the company was able to optimize higher value distillate sales.

Refining and Marketing Margin

Refining and marketing margins were influenced by the following:

On a LIFO(1) basis, Suncor's refining and marketing margin of $35.60/bbl in the first quarter of 2020, was comparable to $35.25/bbl in the prior year quarter. In both periods, gross margin was favourably impacted relative to benchmarks by Suncor's feedstock advantage, reflecting the influence of processing inexpensive heavier crude oil.

On a FIFO basis, Suncor's refining and marketing margin declined to $23.35/bbl in the first quarter of 2020, from $49.65/bbl in the prior year quarter due to the sharp decline in the business environment late in the first quarter as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and OPEC+ actions related to crude oil production, partially offset by marketing and logistics gains. In the first quarter of 2020, the impact of the FIFO method of inventory valuation, relative to an estimated LIFO(1) accounting method, resulted in a negative impact on the company's results of $446 million, after-tax. FIFO had a positive impact on operating earnings of $467 million, after-tax, in the prior year quarter, for an overall unfavourable quarter-over-quarter impact of $844 million, after-tax, net of marketing and logistics activities.

   

(1)
The estimated impact of the LIFO method is a non-GAAP financial measure. See the Non-GAAP Financial Measures Advisory section of this MD&A.
26  2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.

Expenses and Other Factors

Operating expenses and DD&A in the first quarter of 2020 were comparable compared to the first quarter of 2019.

Non-Cash Inventory Write-Down to Net Realizable Value

The first quarter of 2020 included an inventory write-down to net realizable value of $296 million ($220 million after-tax) as a result of a significant decline in benchmarks and demand for crude oil and refined products due to COVID-19 mitigation efforts.

Planned Maintenance

There are no significant maintenance events scheduled for the second quarter of 2020. The anticipated impact of maintenance events scheduled in the third and fourth quarters of 2020 have been reflected in the company's 2020 guidance. As a result of COVID-19 related considerations, Suncor's planned maintenance schedules will continue to be assessed.

CORPORATE AND ELIMINATIONS

Financial Highlights

  Three months ended
March 31
   

($ millions)

  2020   2019    

Net loss

  (1 090 ) (220 )  

Adjusted for:

           

Unrealized foreign exchange loss (gain) on U.S. dollar denominated debt

  1 021   (261 )  

Operating loss(1)

  (69 ) (481 )  

Corporate

  (211 ) (302 )  

Eliminations

  142   (179 )  

Funds used in operations(1)

  (87 ) (554 )  
(1)
Non-GAAP financial measures. See the Non-GAAP Financial Measures Advisory section of this MD&A.

Corporate

Corporate incurred an operating loss of $211 million for the first quarter of 2020, compared to an operating loss of $302 million for the prior year quarter, with the decreased loss attributable to a share-based compensation recovery incurred in the first quarter of 2020, as compared to a share-based compensation expense in the prior year quarter, and an operational foreign exchange gain, as compared to an operational foreign exchange loss in the prior year quarter. Suncor capitalized $38 million of its borrowing costs in the first quarter of 2020 as part of the cost of major development assets and construction projects in progress, compared to $28 million in the prior year quarter.

Eliminations

Eliminations reflect the deferral or realization of profit or loss on crude oil sales from Oil Sands to Suncor's refineries. Consolidated profits and losses are only realized when the refined products produced from internal purchases of crude feedstock have been sold to third parties. During the first quarter of 2020, the company's realization of intersegment profit and elimination of unrealized losses amounted to $142 million after tax, compared to a deferral of $179 million of after tax intersegment profit in the prior year quarter. The realization of deferred profit and elimination of unrealized losses in the first quarter of 2020 was driven by the decrease in Oil Sands price realizations over the quarter, as higher margin crude refinery feedstock inventory sourced internally from Oil Sands was sold and replaced by lower margin feedstock inventory. The deferral of profit in the prior year quarter was driven by the increase in Oil Sands price realizations over that quarter.

2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.  27

5. CAPITAL INVESTMENT UPDATE

Capital and Exploration Expenditures by Segment

  Three months ended March 31    

($ millions)

  2020   2019    

Oil Sands

  1 010   584    

Exploration and Production

  179   228    

Refining and Marketing

  92   82    

Corporate and Eliminations

  39   9    

Total capital and exploration expenditures

  1 320   903    

Less: capitalized interest on debt

  (38 ) (28 )  

  1 282   875    

Capital and Exploration Expenditures by Type, excluding capitalized interest

  Three months ended
March 31, 2020
   

($ millions)

  Asset Sustainment and
Maintenance(1)
  Economic
Investment(2)
  Total    

Oil Sands

               

Oil Sands Base

  386   76   462    

In Situ

  137   198   335    

Fort Hills

  87   8   95    

Syncrude

  63   34   97    

Exploration and Production

  3   162   165    

Refining and Marketing

  49   41   90    

Corporate and Eliminations

  14   24   38    

  739   543   1 282    
(1)
Asset sustainment and maintenance capital expenditures include capital investments that deliver on existing value by ensuring compliance or maintaining relations with regulators and other stakeholders, maintaining current processing capacity, and delivering existing developed reserves.

(2)
Economic investment capital expenditures include capital investments that result in an increase in value through adding reserves, improving processing capacity, utilization, cost or margin, including associated infrastructure.

To preserve the financial health and resiliency of the company and navigate the current business environment, the company has decided to further reduce the 2020 capital expenditure range to $3.6 billion to $4.0 billion, representing a further capital reduction of $400 million at mid-point compared to the previous guidance. Combined with the March 23, 2020 guidance updates, capital guidance has been reduced by $1.9 billion or approximately 33% compared to the company's original 2020 plan. In order to achieve this, the company will concentrate on sustaining projects that are designed to maintain safe and reliable operations and proceed with select late stage, high-value and low capital economic investment projects. The bi-directional interconnecting pipelines between Syncrude and Oil Sands Base and the deployment of autonomous haul trucks at Fort Hills will continue to be funded and are expected to be completed in the second half of 2020. Investments in technology for our supply and trading business and core business systems are also expected to proceed on schedule. Other economic investments have been significantly reduced in 2020 or deferred, including the cogeneration facility at Oil Sands Base and the Forty Mile Wind Power Project. The operator of the West White Rose Project has announced that work has been suspended for at least one year, as has the Terra Nova Asset Life Extension project.

In the first quarter of 2020, the company spent $1.282 billion on capital expenditures, excluding capitalized interest, an increase from $875 million in the prior year quarter, with the increase driven by increased asset sustainment and maintenance capital expenditures related to an increase in planned maintenance activities at Oil Sands Base and In Situ, as well as increased economic investment capital expenditures at Oil Sands Base.

28  2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.

Activity in the first quarter of 2020 is summarized by business unit below.

Oil Sands

Oil Sands Base capital expenditures were $462 million in the first quarter of 2020, the majority of which was focused on the continued development of tailings infrastructure and the company's autonomous haul trucks. Oil Sands Base expenditures also included increased economic investment to progress low-carbon power cogeneration to replace the coke-fired boilers and continued construction of the bi-directional interconnecting pipelines between Syncrude and Oil Sands Base.

In Situ capital expenditures were $335 million in the first quarter of 2020, and were primarily directed towards the rebuild at the MacKay River central processing facility as well as economic investment activities, including well pad construction.

Capital expenditures at Fort Hills were $95 million in the first quarter of 2020, primarily focused on sustaining capital activities on mine and tailings development.

Syncrude capital expenditures were $97 million in the first quarter of 2020, the majority of which was for asset sustainment expenditures focused on maintaining existing assets.

Exploration and Production

Capital and exploration expenditures at E&P were $165 million in the first quarter of 2020 and were primarily focused on economic investment projects, including development drilling at Hibernia, Hebron and Buzzard, and development work on Terra Nova, Fenja and the West White Rose Projects.

Drilling activity at Hebron is ongoing with the completion of one production and one water injection well during the first quarter of 2020.

Suncor is currently evaluating alternate options for the Terra Nova Asset Life Extension, as Spain is no longer able to accommodate the planned dry dock work due to that country's COVID-19 response.

Refining and Marketing

R&M capital expenditures were $90 million and were primarily related to the ongoing sustainment and enhancement to refinery and retail operations, and other economic investment projects on logistics and our retail and wholesale network.

Corporate and Eliminations

Corporate capital expenditures were $38 million, primarily directed towards the company's information technology initiatives.

2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.  29

6. FINANCIAL CONDITION AND LIQUIDITY

Indicators

  Twelve months ended
March 31
   

  2020   2019    

Return on Capital Employed(1) (%)

           

Excluding major projects in progress(2)

  (1.4 ) 8.3    

Including major projects in progress

  (1.3 ) 8.2    

Net debt to funds from operations(3)(4) (times)

  2.0   1.6    

Interest coverage on long-term debt (times)

           

Earnings basis(5)

  (2.4 ) 7.1    

Funds from operations basis(4)(6)

  9.1   14.1    

Total debt to total debt plus shareholders' equity (%)

  35.0   30.2    
(1)
Non-GAAP financial measure. See the Non-GAAP Financial Measures Advisory section of this MD&A.

(2)
ROCE excluding major projects in progress would have been 5.4% for the twelve months ended March 31, 2020, excluding the impact of impairments of $1.798 billion after-tax in the first quarter of 2020, the impacts of impairments of $3.352 billion after-tax in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the impacts of $1.116 billion deferred tax recovery for the Alberta corporate income tax rate change in the second quarter of 2019.

(3)
Net debt is equal to total debt less cash and cash equivalents.

(4)
Funds from operations and metrics that use funds from operations are non-GAAP financial measures. See the Non-GAAP Financial Measures Advisory section of this MD&A.

(5)
Equal to net earnings plus income taxes and interest expense, divided by the sum of interest expense and capitalized interest on debt.

(6)
Equal to funds from operations plus current income taxes and interest expense, divided by the sum of interest expense and capitalized interest on debt.

Recent Developments

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on global capital markets and the availability of liquidity towards the end of the first quarter of 2020. The disruption and volatility in global capital markets that has resulted is expected to continue for some time and could increase our cost of capital and adversely affect our ability to access the capital markets on a timely basis, or at all.

In addition, recent market events and conditions, including excess global crude oil and petroleum product supply as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and as a result of initial plans by certain OPEC+ countries to set and maintain increased production levels as well as decreased global demand, have caused significant weakness and volatility in commodity prices, including transportation fuels and products that the company sells.

In response to these developments, the company has decided to further reduce the 2020 capital expenditure range to $3.6 billion to $4.0 billion, representing a further capital reduction of $400 million at mid-point compared to the previous guidance. Combined with the March 23, 2020 guidance updates, capital guidance has been reduced by $1.9 billion or approximately 33% compared to the company's original 2020 plan, and operating costs across the business by $1 billion or approximately 10% compared to 2019 levels. As of March 31, 2020, Suncor had significantly increased its liquidity by securing an additional $2.5 billion of credit facilities for a 24-month term with its key banking partners. Subsequent to the first quarter of 2020, the company issued $1.25 billion of 5.00% senior unsecured 10-year medium term notes and secured $300 million in additional credit facilities. This increased financial flexibility will help ensure the company has access to adequate financial resources should it be required.

Capital Resources

Suncor's capital resources consist primarily of cash flow provided by operating activities, cash and cash equivalents, and available lines of credit. Suncor's management believes the company will have the capital resources to fund its planned 2020 capital spending program of $3.6 billion to $4.0 billion and to meet current and future working capital requirements, through cash and cash equivalents balances, cash flow provided by operating activities, available committed credit facilities, issuing commercial paper and, if needed, accessing capital markets. The company's cash flow provided by operating activities depends on a number of factors, including commodity prices, production and sales volumes, refining and marketing margins, operating expenses, taxes, royalties and foreign exchange rates.

The company has invested cash in short-term financial instruments that are presented as cash and cash equivalents. The objectives of the company's short-term investment portfolio are to ensure the preservation of capital, maintain adequate

30  2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.

liquidity to meet Suncor's cash flow requirements and deliver competitive returns derived from the quality and diversification of investments within acceptable risk parameters. The maximum weighted average term to maturity of the short-term investment portfolio is not expected to exceed six months, and all investments will be with counterparties with investment grade debt ratings.

Available Sources of Liquidity

For the three months ended March 31, 2020, cash and cash equivalents increased to $2.226 billion, from $1.960 billion at December 31, 2019, with cash flow provided by operating activities and an increase in short-term indebtedness partially offset by the planned use of cash related to the company's capital and exploration expenditures, dividend requirements and the repurchase of Suncor's own shares under its NCIB in the first quarter of 2020.

As at March 31, 2020, the weighted average days to maturity of the company's short-term investment portfolio was approximately 21 days.

Available credit facilities for liquidity purposes at March 31, 2020 increased to $5.891 billion, compared to $4.701 billion at December 31, 2019. The increase in liquidity was primarily due to an additional $2.5 billion of credit facilities secured in the first quarter of 2020, and the weakening of the Canadian dollar compared to the U.S. dollar since December 31, 2019, partially offset by increased short-term indebtedness. This increased financial flexibility will help ensure that the company has access to adequate financial resources should it be required.

In the first quarter of 2020, Standard & Poor's downgraded Suncor's long-term senior debt rating to BBB+, with a Stable Outlook, and Dominion Bond Rating Service placed all of its ratings of North American Oil and Gas issuers, including Suncor, "Under Review with Negative Implications". Subsequent to the end of the first quarter of 2020, Moody's Investors Service affirmed the company's Baa1 rating, with a Stable Outlook, on long-term debt.

Financing Activities

Management of debt levels and liquidity continues to be a priority for Suncor given the company's long-term growth plans and future expected volatility in the pricing environment. Suncor believes a phased and flexible approach to existing and future growth projects should assist the company in maintaining its ability to manage project costs and debt levels. The disciplined actions around liquidity and capital spending that the company has taken to address the recent economic downturn will help sustain the financial health of the company.

Subsequent to the first quarter of 2020, the company issued $1.25 billion of 5.00% senior unsecured Series 7 Medium Term Notes maturing on April 9, 2030 and secured $300 million in additional credit facilities.

2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.  31


Total Debt to Total Debt Plus Shareholders' Equity

Suncor is subject to financial and operating covenants related to its bank debt and public market debt. Failure to meet the terms of one or more of these covenants may constitute an "event of default" as defined in the respective debt agreements, potentially resulting in accelerated repayment of one or more of the debt obligations. The company is in compliance with its financial covenant that requires total debt to not exceed 65% of its total debt plus shareholders' equity. At March 31, 2020, total debt to total debt plus shareholders' equity was 35.0% (December 31, 2019 – 29.9%) and increased due to higher debt levels and lower shareholders' equity as a result of impairment charges and an inventory valuation write-down to net realizable value recorded in the first quarter of 2020. The company continues to be in compliance with all operating covenants under its debt agreements.

($ millions, except as noted)

  March 31
2020
  December 31
2019
   

Short-term debt

  3 756   2 155    

Current portion of long-term debt

       

Current portion of long-term lease liabilities

  302   310    

Long-term debt

  13 765   12 884    

Long-term lease liabilities

  2 615   2 621    

Total debt

  20 438   17 970    

Less: Cash and cash equivalents

  2 226   1 960    

Net debt

  18 212   16 010    

Shareholders' equity

  37 965   42 042    

Total debt plus shareholders' equity

  58 403   60 012    

Total debt to total debt plus shareholders' equity (%)

  35.0   29.9    

Change in Debt

($ millions)

  Three months ended
March 31, 2020
   

Total debt – beginning of period

  17 970    

Increase in long-term debt

     

Increase in short-term debt

  1 386    

Increase in lease liability

  57    

Lease payments

  (82 )  

Foreign exchange on debt, and other

  1 107    

Total debt – March 31, 2020

  20 438    

Less: Cash and cash equivalents – March 31, 2020

  2 226    

Net debt – March 31, 2020

  18 212    

The company's total debt increased in the first quarter of 2020 due to an increase in short-term indebtedness, unfavourable foreign exchange rates on U.S. dollar denominated debt compared to December 31, 2019 and leases entered into during the period, partially offset by lease principal payments made during the first quarter of 2020. As at March 31, 2020, the company had no debt maturities in 2020, $1.5 billion due in 2021, and $257 million due in 2022.

32  2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.

Common Shares

(thousands)

  March 31, 2020    

Common shares

  1 525 151    

Common share options – exercisable

  26 550    

Common share options – non-exercisable

  12 754    

As at May 1, 2020, the total number of common shares outstanding was 1,525,150,794 and the total number of exercisable and non-exercisable common share options outstanding was 39,139,294. Once exercisable, each outstanding common share option is convertible into one common share.

Share Repurchases

In May 2019, Suncor renewed its NCIB to continue to repurchase its common shares through the facilities of the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX), New York Stock Exchange and/or alternative trading platforms between May 6, 2019 and May 5, 2020. The TSX subsequently accepted a notice filed by Suncor of its intention to amend the NCIB effective as of December 30, 2019 pursuant to which Suncor was permitted to increase the maximum number of common shares that may be purchased for cancellation between May 6, 2019 and May 5, 2020 to 78,549,178 common shares.

During the first quarter of 2020, Suncor repurchased and cancelled 7,527,370 common shares at an average price of $40.83 per common share, for a total of $307 million, compared to the prior year quarter when the company repurchased and cancelled 11,951,027 common shares at an average price of $42.99 per common share, for a total of $514 million. Given the current business environment and aligned with our disciplined capital allocation strategy, share repurchases have been suspended and the company has decided not to renew its NCIB at this time.

  Three months ended
March 31
   

($ millions, except as noted)

  2020   2019    

Share repurchase activities (thousands of common shares)

  7 527   11 951    

Weighted average repurchase price per share (dollars per share)

  40.83   42.99    

Share repurchase cost

  307   514    

Contractual Obligations, Commitments, Guarantees, and Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements

In the normal course of business, the company is obligated to make future payments, including contractual obligations and non-cancellable commitments. Suncor has included these items in the Financial Condition and Liquidity section of the 2019 annual MD&A. Suncor does not believe that it has any guarantees or off-balance sheet arrangements that have, or are reasonably likely to have, a current or future material effect on the company's financial performance or financial condition, results of operations, liquidity or capital expenditures.

Subsequent to March 31, 2020, the company increased its commitments by approximately $1.25 billion as a result of debt issued in the second quarter of 2020.

2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.  33

7. QUARTERLY FINANCIAL DATA

Trends in Suncor's quarterly revenue, earnings and funds from operations are driven primarily by production volumes, which can be significantly impacted by major maintenance events, changes in commodity prices, including widening of crude differentials, refining crack spreads, foreign exchange rates and other significant events impacting operations, such as the COVID-19 global pandemic beginning in the first quarter of 2020 and the Government of Alberta's mandatory production curtailments implemented during 2019.

Financial Summary

Three months ended
($ millions, unless otherwise noted)
  Mar 31
2020
  Dec 31
2019
  Sept 30
2019
  June 30
2019
  Mar 31
2019
  Dec 31
2018
  Sept 30
2018
  June 30
2018
   

Total production (mboe/d)

                                   

Oil Sands

  630.1   662.3   670.0   692.2   657.2   740.8   651.7   547.6    

Exploration and Production

  109.7   115.9   92.3   111.7   107.1   90.2   92.1   114.1    

  739.8   778.2   762.3   803.9   764.3   831.0   743.8   661.7    

Revenues and other income

                                   

Operating revenues, net of royalties

  7 391   9 487   9 803   10 071   8 983   8 561   10 847   10 327    

Other income

  365   111   93   27   414   384   16   101    

  7 756   9 598   9 896   10 098   9 397   8 945   10 863   10 428    

Net (loss) earnings

  (3 525 ) (2 335 ) 1 035   2 729   1 470   (280 ) 1 812   972    

per common share – basic (dollars)

  (2.31 ) (1.52 ) 0.67   1.74   0.93   (0.18 ) 1.12   0.60    

per common share – diluted (dollars)

  (2.31 ) (1.52 ) 0.67   1.74   0.93   (0.18 ) 1.11   0.59    

Operating (loss) earnings(1)

  (309 ) 782   1 114   1 253   1 209   580   1 557   1 190    

per common share – basic(1) (dollars)

  (0.20 ) 0.51   0.72   0.80   0.77   0.36   0.96   0.73    

Funds from operations(1)

  1 001   2 553   2 675   3 005   2 585   2 007   3 139   2 862    

per common share – basic(1) (dollars)

  0.66   1.66   1.72   1.92   1.64   1.26   1.94   1.75    

Cash flow provided by operating activities

  1 384   2 304   3 136   3 433   1 548   3 040   4 370   2 446    

per common share – basic (dollars)

  0.91   1.50   2.02   2.19   0.98   1.90   2.70   1.50    

ROCE(1) (%) for the twelve months ended

  (1.3 ) 4.9   9.7   10.4   8.2   8.0   9.7   8.3    

ROCE(1)(2), excluding major projects in progress (%) for twelve months ended

  (1.4 ) 5.1   9.9   10.6   8.3   8.2   10.4   9.5    

After-tax unrealized foreign exchange (loss) gain on U.S. dollar denominated debt

  (1 021 ) 235   (127 ) 221   261   (637 ) 195   (218 )  

Common share information (dollars)

                                   

Dividend per common share

  0.465   0.42   0.42   0.42   0.42   0.36   0.36   0.36    

Share price at the end of trading

                                   

Toronto Stock Exchange (Cdn$)

  22.46   42.56   41.79   40.85   43.31   38.13   49.98   53.50    

New York Stock Exchange (US$)

  15.80   32.80   31.58   31.16   32.43   27.97   38.69   40.68    
(1)
Non-GAAP financial measures. See the Non-GAAP Financial Measures Advisory section of this MD&A.

(2)
ROCE excluding major projects in progress would have been 5.4% for the twelve months ended March 31, 2020, excluding the impact of impairments of $1.798 billion after-tax in the first quarter of 2020, the impacts of impairments of $3.352 billion after-tax in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the impacts of $1.116 billion deferred tax recovery for the Alberta corporate income tax rate change in the second quarter of 2019.
34  2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.

Business Environment

(average for the three months ended)       Mar 31
2020
  Dec 31
2019
  Sept 30
2019
  June 30
2019
  Mar 31
2019
  Dec 31
2018
  Sept 30
2018
  June 30
2018
   

WTI crude oil at Cushing

  US$/bbl   46.10   56.95   56.45   59.85   54.90   58.85   69.50   67.90    

Dated Brent crude

  US$/bbl   50.15   63.30   61.90   68.85   63.20   67.80   75.25   74.40    

Dated Brent/Maya FOB price differential

  US$/bbl   15.95   9.30   5.20   6.90   5.00   4.35   10.20   12.40    

MSW at Edmonton

  Cdn$/bbl   52.00   68.10   68.35   73.40   66.45   42.70   82.10   80.95    

WCS at Hardisty

  US$/bbl   25.60   41.10   44.20   49.20   42.50   19.50   47.35   48.65    

Light/heavy crude oil differential for WTI at Cushing less WCS at Hardisty

  US$/bbl   (20.50 ) (15.85 ) (12.25 ) (10.65 ) (12.40 ) (39.35 ) (22.15 ) (19.25 )  

SYN-WTI (differential) premium

  US$/bbl   (2.70 ) (0.70 ) 0.40   0.15   (2.30 ) (21.60 ) (0.90 ) (0.65 )  

Condensate at Edmonton

  US$/bbl   46.20   53.00   52.00   55.90   50.55   45.30   66.80   68.50    

Natural gas (Alberta spot) at AECO

  Cdn$/mcf   2.05   2.50   0.95   1.05   2.55   1.60   1.20   1.20    

Alberta Power Pool Price

  Cdn$/MWh   67.05   46.95   46.85   56.35   70.75   55.55   54.45   56.00    

New York Harbor 2-1-1 crack(1)

  US$/bbl   14.75   18.50   19.75   22.40   19.10   18.75   19.50   21.45    

Chicago 2-1-1 crack(1)

  US$/bbl   9.75   14.45   17.05   21.55   15.30   16.25   19.90   19.10    

Portland 2-1-1 crack(1)

  US$/bbl   18.30   25.75   23.85   29.15   19.35   24.25   22.05   28.75    

Gulf Coast 2-1-1 crack(1)

  US$/bbl   13.00   17.10   20.00   21.70   17.85   17.45   19.30   20.50    

Exchange rate

  US$/Cdn$   0.74   0.76   0.76   0.75   0.75   0.76   0.77   0.77    

Exchange rate (end of period)

  US$/Cdn$   0.71   0.77   0.76   0.76   0.75   0.73   0.77   0.76    
(1)
2-1-1 crack spreads are indicators of the refining margin generated by converting two barrels of WTI into one barrel of gasoline and one barrel of diesel. The crack spreads presented here generally approximate the regions into which the company sells refined products through retail and wholesale channels.
2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.  35

8. OTHER ITEMS

Accounting Policies and New IFRS Standards

Suncor's significant accounting policies and a summary of recently announced accounting standards are described in the Accounting Policies and Critical Accounting Estimates section of Suncor's 2019 annual MD&A and in note 2 of Suncor's unaudited interim Consolidated Financial Statements for the three months ended March 31, 2020.

Critical Accounting Estimates

The preparation of financial statements in accordance with GAAP requires management to make estimates, judgments and assumptions that affect reported assets, liabilities, revenues and expenses, gains and losses, and disclosures of contingencies. These estimates and assumptions are subject to change based on experience and new information. Critical accounting estimates are those that require management to make assumptions about matters that are highly uncertain at the time the estimate is made. Critical accounting estimates are also those estimates which, where a different estimate could have been used or where changes in the estimate that are reasonably likely to occur, would have a material impact on the company's financial condition, changes in financial condition or financial performance. Critical accounting estimates and judgments are reviewed annually by the Audit Committee of the Board of Directors. A detailed description of Suncor's critical accounting estimates is provided in note 4 to the audited Consolidated Financial Statements for the year ended December 31, 2019 and in the Accounting Policies and Critical Accounting Estimates section of Suncor's 2019 annual MD&A.

On January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern and, on March 10, 2020, declared it to be a pandemic. Actions taken around the world to help mitigate the spread of COVID-19 include restrictions on travel, quarantines in certain areas, and forced closures for certain types of public places and businesses. These measures have and will continue to have significant disruption to business operations and a significant increase in economic uncertainty, with reduced demand for commodities leading to volatile prices and currency exchange rates, and a decline in long-term interest rates. Our operations and business are particularly sensitive to a reduction in the demand for, and prices of, commodities that are closely linked to Suncor's financial performance, including crude oil, refined petroleum products (such as jet fuel and gasoline), natural gas and electricity. The potential direct and indirect impacts of the economic downturn have been considered in management's estimates, and assumptions at period end have been reflected in our results with any significant changes described in the relevant notes to the company's unaudited interim Consolidated Financial Statements for the three months ended March 31, 2020.

The COVID-19 pandemic is an evolving situation that will continue to have widespread implications for our business environment, operations and financial condition. Management cannot reasonably estimate the length or severity of this pandemic, or the extent to which the disruption may materially impact our consolidated statements of comprehensive (loss) income, consolidated balance sheets and consolidated statements of cash flows in fiscal 2020.

Financial Instruments

Suncor periodically enters into derivative contracts such as forwards, futures, swaps, options and costless collars to manage exposure to fluctuations in commodity prices and foreign exchange rates, and to optimize the company's position with respect to interest payments. The company also uses physical and financial energy derivatives to earn trading profits. For more information on Suncor's financial instruments and the related financial risk factors, see note 26 of the audited Consolidated Financial Statements for the year ended December 31, 2019, note 9 to the unaudited interim Consolidated Financial Statements for the three months ended March 31, 2020, and the Financial Condition and Liquidity section of the 2019 annual MD&A.

Control Environment

Based on their evaluation as at March 31, 2020, Suncor's Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer concluded that the company's disclosure controls and procedures (as defined in Rules 13a-15(e) and 15d-15(e) under the United States Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the Exchange Act)), are effective to ensure that information required to be disclosed by the company in reports that are filed or submitted to Canadian and U.S. securities authorities is recorded, processed, summarized and reported within the time periods specified in Canadian and U.S. securities laws. In addition, as at March 31, 2020, there were no changes in the internal control over financial reporting (as defined in Exchange Act Rules 13a-15(f) and 15d-15(f)) that occurred during the three-month period ended March 31, 2020 that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, the company's internal control over financial reporting. Management will continue to periodically evaluate the company's disclosure controls and procedures and internal control over financial reporting and will make any modifications from time to time as deemed necessary.

36  2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.

Based on their inherent limitations, disclosure controls and procedures and internal control over financial reporting may not prevent or detect misstatements, and even those controls determined to be effective can provide only reasonable assurance with respect to financial statement preparation and presentation.

Corporate Guidance

Suncor has updated its previously announced 2020 guidance (which was originally disclosed via press release on December 2, 2019), as set forth in Suncor's press releases dated March 23, 2020 and May 5, 2020, both of which are also available on www.sedar.com.

2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.  37

9. NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES ADVISORY

Certain financial measures in this MD&A – namely operating earnings (loss), ROCE, funds from (used in) operations, free funds flow, discretionary free funds flow, Oil Sands operations cash operating costs, Fort Hills cash operating costs, Syncrude cash operating costs, refining and marketing margin, refining operating expense, LIFO inventory valuation methodology and related per share or per barrel amounts – are not prescribed by GAAP. These non-GAAP financial measures are included because management uses the information to analyze business performance, leverage and liquidity, and it may be useful to investors on the same basis. These non-GAAP financial measures do not have any standardized meaning and, therefore, are unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. Therefore, these non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures of performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. Except as otherwise indicated, these non-GAAP financial measures are calculated and disclosed on a consistent basis from period to period. Specific adjusting items may only be relevant in certain periods.

Operating Earnings (Loss)

Operating earnings (loss) is a non-GAAP financial measure that adjusts net earnings (loss) for significant items that are not indicative of operating performance. Management uses operating earnings (loss) to evaluate operating performance because management believes it provides better comparability between periods. Operating earnings (loss) are reconciled to net earnings (loss) in the Consolidated Financial Information and Segment Results and Analysis sections of this MD&A.

Bridge Analyses of Operating Earnings (Loss)

Throughout this MD&A, the company presents charts that illustrate the change in operating earnings (loss) from the comparative period through key variance factors. These factors are analyzed in the Operating Earnings (loss) narratives following the bridge analyses in particular sections of this MD&A. These bridge analyses are presented because management uses this presentation to evaluate performance.

The factor for Sales Volumes and Mix is calculated based on sales volumes and mix for the Oil Sands and E&P segments and throughput volumes and mix for the R&M segment.

The factor for Price, Margin and Other Revenue includes upstream price realizations before royalties, with the exception of Libya, which is net of royalties and upstream marketing and logistics. Also included are refining and marketing margins, other operating revenue, and the net impacts of sales and purchases of third-party crude, including product purchased for use as diluent in the company's Oil Sands operations and subsequently sold as part of diluted bitumen.

The factor for Royalties excludes the impact of Libya, as royalties in Libya are taken into account in Price, Margin and Other Revenue as described above.

The factor for Inventory Valuation includes the after-tax impact of the FIFO method of inventory valuation in the company's R&M segment, as well as the impact of the deferral or realization of profit or loss on crude oil sales from the Oil Sands segment to Suncor's refineries, as both represent inventory valuation adjustments, and downstream marketing and logistics activities.

The factor for Insurance Proceeds includes the after-tax insurance proceeds related to the company's assets in Libya.

The factor for Operating and Transportation Expense includes project startup costs, operating, selling and general expense, and transportation expense.

The factor for Financing Expense and Other includes financing expenses, other income, operational foreign exchange gains and losses, changes in gains and losses on disposal of assets that are not operating earnings (loss) adjustments, changes in statutory income tax rates and other income tax adjustments.
38  2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.

Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)

ROCE is a non-GAAP financial measure that management uses to analyze operating performance and the efficiency of Suncor's capital allocation process. Average capital employed is calculated as a twelve-month average of the capital employed balance at the beginning of the twelve-month period and the month-end capital employed balances throughout the remainder of the twelve-month period. Figures for capital employed at the beginning and end of the twelve-month period are presented to show the changes in the components of the calculation over the twelve-month period.

The company presents two ROCE calculations – one including and one excluding the impacts on capital employed for major projects in progress. Major projects in progress includes accumulated capital expenditures and capitalized interest for significant projects still under construction or in the process of being commissioned, and acquired assets that are still being evaluated. Management uses ROCE excluding the impacts of major projects in progress on capital employed to assess performance of operating assets.

For the twelve months ended March 31
($ millions, except as noted)
      2020   2019    

Adjustments to net earnings

               

Net (loss) earnings

      (2 096 ) 3 974    

Add after-tax amounts for:

               

Unrealized foreign exchange loss on U.S. dollar denominated debt

      692   399    

Net interest expense

      633   610    

  A   (771 ) 4 983    

Capital employed – beginning of twelve-month period

               

Net debt

      17 298   15 603    

Shareholders' equity

      44 262   45 483    

      61 560   61 086    

Capital employed – end of twelve-month period

               

Net debt

      18 212   17 298    

Shareholders' equity

      37 965   44 262    

      56 177   61 560    

Average capital employed

  B   59 346   60 671    

ROCE – including major projects in progress (%)

  A/B   (1.3 ) 8.2    

Average capitalized costs related to major projects in progress

  C   3 062   534    

ROCE – excluding major projects in progress (%)(1)

  A/(B-C)   (1.4 ) 8.3    
(1)
ROCE excluding major projects in progress would have been 5.4% for the twelve months ended March 31, 2020, excluding the impact of impairments of $1.798 billion after-tax in the first quarter of 2020, the impacts of impairments of $3.352 billion after-tax in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the impacts of $1.116 billion deferred tax recovery for the Alberta corporate income tax rate change in the second quarter of 2019.
2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.  39

Funds From (Used In) Operations

Funds from (used in) operations is a non-GAAP financial measure that adjusts a GAAP measure – cash flow provided by (used in) operating activities – for changes in non-cash working capital, which management uses to analyze operating performance and liquidity. Changes to non-cash working capital can be impacted by, among other factors, the timing of offshore feedstock purchases and payments for commodity and income taxes, the timing of cash flows related to accounts receivable and accounts payable, and changes in inventory which management believes reduces comparability between periods.

Funds from (used in) operations for each quarter are separately defined and reconciled to the cash flow provided by operating activities measure in the Non-GAAP Financial Measures Advisory section of each respective management's discussion and analysis or quarterly report to shareholders, as applicable, for the related quarter.

Three months ended March 31   Oil Sands      Exploration and 
Production   
        Refining and
      Marketing
        Corporate and
      Eliminations
  Total              
($ millions)   2020   2019   2020   2019   2020   2019   2020   2019   2020   2019    

Net (loss) earnings

  (1 953 ) 189   (427 ) 492   (55 ) 1 009   (1 090 ) (220 ) (3 525 ) 1 470    

Adjustments for:

                                           

Depreciation, depletion, amortization and impairment

  3 065   992   828   247   232   203   21   20   4 146   1 462    

Deferred income taxes

  (444 ) 60   (128 ) (33 ) (10 ) 5   62   (29 ) (520 ) 3    

Accretion

  56   58   11   11   2   2       69   71    

Unrealized foreign exchange loss (gain) on U.S. dollar denominated debt

              1 096   (280 ) 1 096   (280 )  

Change in fair value of financial instruments and trading inventory

  163   6   (136 ) (4 ) 98   70       125   72    

Gain loss on disposal of assets

  (1 ) (4 )     (3 ) (1 )     (4 ) (5 )  

Share-based compensation

  (86 ) (34 ) (11 ) (5 ) (51 ) (24 ) (178 ) (46 ) (326 ) (109 )  

Exploration

      70   2           70   2    

Settlement of decommissioning and restoration liabilities

  (99 ) (112 ) (4 ) (1 ) (3 ) (1 )     (106 ) (114 )  

Other

  (10 ) 29   (30 ) (7 ) 14   (10 ) 2   1   (24 ) 13    

Funds from (used in) operations

  691   1 184   173   702   224   1 253   (87 ) (554 ) 1 001   2 585    

Decrease (increase) in non-cash working capital

                                  383   (1 037 )  

Cash flow provided by operating activities

                                  1 384   1 548    

Free Funds Flow and Discretionary Free Funds Flow

Free funds flow is a non-GAAP financial measure that is calculated by taking funds from operations and subtracting capital expenditures, including capitalized interest. Discretionary free funds flow is a non-GAAP financial measure that is calculated by taking funds from operations and subtracting asset sustainment and maintenance capital, inclusive of associated capitalized interest, and dividends. Both free funds flow and discretionary free funds flow reflects cash available for increasing distributions to shareholders and to fund growth investments. Management uses free funds flow and discretionary free funds flow to measure the capacity of the company to increase returns to shareholders and to grow Suncor's business.

  Three months ended
Mar 31
   

($ millions)

  2020   2019    

Funds from operations

  1 001   2 585    

Asset sustaining and maintenance capital and dividends

  (1 463 ) (1 096 )  

Discretionary free funds flow

  (462 ) 1 489    
40  2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.

Oil Sands Operations, Fort Hills and Syncrude Cash Operating Costs

Oil Sands operations, Syncrude and Fort Hills cash operating costs are non-GAAP financial measures. Oil Sands operations cash operating costs are calculated by adjusting Oil Sands segment OS&G expense (a GAAP measure based on sales volumes) for i) costs pertaining to Fort Hills and Syncrude operations; ii) non-production costs that management believes do not relate to the production performance of Oil Sands operations, including, but not limited to, share-based compensation adjustments, research and the expense recorded as part of a non-monetary arrangement involving a third-party processor; iii) revenues associated with excess capacity, including excess power generated and sold that is recorded in operating revenue; iv) project startup costs; and v) the impacts of changes in inventory levels, such that the company is able to present cost information based on production volumes. Beginning in the first quarter of 2020, the company revised Syncrude cash operating costs to better align with the Oil Sands operations and Fort Hills cash operating costs methodology. Prior period Syncrude cash operating costs had previously included future development costs and have been restated to exclude these costs. Syncrude and Fort Hills cash operating costs are calculated by adjusting Syncrude OS&G expense and Fort Hills OS&G expense, respectively, for non-production costs that management believes do not relate to the production performance of Syncrude operations or Fort Hills operations, respectively, including, but not limited to, share-based compensation, research and project startup costs, if applicable. Oil Sands operations, Fort Hills and Syncrude cash operating costs are reconciled in the Segment Results and Analysis – Oil Sands section of this MD&A. Management uses cash operating costs to measure operating performance.

Refining and Marketing Margin and Refining Operating Expense

Refining and marketing margin and refining operating expense are non-GAAP financial measures. Refining and marketing margin is calculated by adjusting R&M segment operating revenue, other income and purchases of crude oil and products (all of which are GAAP measures) for non-refining margin pertaining to the company's supply, marketing and ethanol businesses, as well as removing the impact of marketing and logistics gains and losses. Refinery operating expense is calculated by adjusting R&M segment OS&G for i) non-refining costs pertaining to the company's supply, marketing and ethanol businesses; and ii) non-refining costs that management believes do not relate to the production of refined products, including, but not limited to, share-based compensation and enterprise shared service allocations. Management uses refining and marketing margin and refining operating expense to measure operating performance on a production barrel basis.

  Three months ended
March 31
   

($ millions, except as noted)

  2020   2019    

Refining and marketing margin reconciliation

           

Gross margin, operating revenue less purchases of crude oil and products

  629   2 140    

Other income

  86   15    

Non-refining margin

  283   (13 )  

Refining and marketing margin

  998   2 142    

Refinery production(1) (mbbls)

  42 729   43 143    

Refining and marketing margin – FIFO(2) ($/bbl)

  23.35   49.65    

Refining and marketing margin – LIFO(2) ($/bbl)

  35.60   35.25    

Refining operating expense reconciliation

           

Operating, selling and general expense

  511   536    

Non-refining costs

  (270 ) (294 )  

Refining operating expense

  241   242    

Refinery production(1) (mbbls)

  42 729   43 143    

Refining operating expense ($/bbl)

  5.65   5.60    
(1)
Refinery production is the output of the refining process, and differs from crude oil processed as a result of volumetric adjustments for non-crude feedstock, volumetric gain associated with the refining process, and changes in unfinished product inventories.

(2)
Beginning in the first quarter of 2020, refining and marketing margins have been revised to better reflect the refining, product supply and rack forward businesses. Prior periods have been restated to reflect this change.
2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.  41

Impact of First-in, First-out (FIFO) Inventory Valuation on Refining and Marketing Net Earnings (Loss)

GAAP requires the use of a FIFO inventory valuation methodology. For Suncor, this results in a disconnect between the sales prices for refined products, which reflect current market conditions, and the amount recorded as the cost of sale for the related refinery feedstock, which reflects market conditions at the time the feedstock was purchased. This lag between purchase and sale can be anywhere from several weeks to several months, and is influenced by the time to receive crude after purchase (which can be several weeks for foreign offshore crude purchases), regional crude inventory levels, the completion of refining processes, transportation time to distribution channels, and regional refined product inventory levels.

Suncor prepares and presents an estimate of the impact of using a FIFO inventory valuation methodology compared to a LIFO methodology, because management uses the information to analyze operating performance and compare itself against refining peers that are permitted to use LIFO inventory valuation under United States GAAP (U.S. GAAP).

The company's estimate is not derived from a standardized calculation and, therefore, may not be directly comparable to similar measures presented by other companies, and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures of performance prepared in accordance with GAAP or U.S. GAAP.

10. COMMON ABBREVIATIONS

The following is a list of abbreviations that may be used in this MD&A:

Measurement   Places and Currencies
bbl   barrel   U.S.   United States
bbls/d   barrels per day   U.K.   United Kingdom
mbbls/d   thousands of barrels per day        
        $ or Cdn$   Canadian dollars
boe   barrels of oil equivalent   US$   United States dollars
boe/d   barrels of oil equivalent per day        
mboe   thousands of barrels of oil equivalent        
mboe/d   thousands of barrels of oil equivalent per day   Financial and Business Environment
        Q1   Three months ended March 31
GJ   Gigajoule   DD&A   Depreciation, depletion and amortization
        WTI   West Texas Intermediate
mcf   thousands of cubic feet of natural gas   WCS   Western Canadian Select
mcfe   thousands of cubic feet of natural gas equivalent   SCO   Synthetic crude oil
mmcf   millions of cubic feet of natural gas   SYN   Synthetic crude oil benchmark
mmcf/d   millions of cubic feet of natural gas per day   MSW   Mixed Sweet Blend
mmcfe   millions of cubic feet of natural gas equivalent   NYMEX   New York Mercantile Exchange
mmcfe/d   millions of cubic feet of natural gas equivalent per day   YTD   Year to date
MW   megawatts        
MWh   megawatts per hour        
42  2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.

11. FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION

This MD&A contains certain forward-looking information and forward-looking statements (collectively referred to herein as "forward-looking statements") within the meaning of applicable Canadian and U.S. securities laws. Forward-looking statements and other information are based on Suncor's current expectations, estimates, projections and assumptions that were made by the company in light of information available at the time the statement was made and consider Suncor's experience and its perception of historical trends, including expectations and assumptions concerning: the accuracy of reserves estimates; the current and potential adverse impacts of the novel coronavirus pandemic; commodity prices and interest and foreign exchange rates; the performance of assets and equipment; capital efficiencies and cost-savings; applicable laws and government policies; future production rates; the sufficiency of budgeted capital expenditures in carrying out planned activities; the availability and cost of labour, services and infrastructure; the satisfaction by third parties of their obligations to Suncor; the development and execution of projects; and the receipt, in a timely manner, of regulatory and third-party approvals. All statements and information that address expectations or projections about the future, and other statements and information about Suncor's strategy for growth, expected and future expenditures or investment decisions, commodity prices, costs, schedules, production volumes, operating and financial results, future financing and capital activities, and the expected impact of future commitments are forward-looking statements. Some of the forward-looking statements may be identified by words like "expects", "anticipates", "will", "estimates", "plans", "scheduled", "intends", "believes", "projects", "indicates", "could", "focus", "vision", "goal", "outlook", "proposed", "target", "objective", "continue", "should", "may", "future", "potential", "opportunity", "would", "priority", "strategy" and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements in this MD&A include references to:

Suncor's belief that its integrated model and balance sheet strength are distinct advantages coming into this environment and that its unique business model, focused actions and dedicated team will allow Suncor to remain strong and continue to provide trusted energy for decades to come;

the expectation that the increased financial flexibility from securing an additional $2.8 billion of credit facilities and the issuance of $1.25 billion of 5.00% senior unsecured medium term notes will help ensure the company has access to adequate financial resources should it be required;

Suncor's focus on leveraging its flexibility to maximize value from its existing assets and optimizing margins through each link in the value chain and the belief that, through its ability to upgrade, refine and sell production to customers through its retail and wholesale network, Suncor will continue to focus on creating long-term value while meeting its customer's energy needs;

Suncor's expectation that the reduction in the dividend combined with the sustaining capital and operating cost reductions, will reduce the cash break-even price to cover operating costs, sustaining capital and dividends to approximately WTI US$35/bbl and the basis for such expectation;

MacKay River's planned return to service date of the latter part of the second quarter of 2020;

Suncor's belief that it is well positioned to weather the challenges of the evolving and complex business environment (including the strategies to do so) and that its integrated model, paired with its disciplined financial management and capital allocation practices, will provide resiliency through rapidly changing market conditions;

Suncor's expectations regarding the continued impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and supply side shock, including with respect to refined product and crude oil demand levels and capital markets and the intended impacts of the actions taken in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and supply side shock;

the expectation that the company will concentrate on sustaining projects that are designed to maintain safe and reliable operations and proceed with select late stage, high-value and low capital economic investment projects;

the company's plan to decrease its annual operating expenditures by more than $1 billion compared to 2019 levels and its total capital expenditures by 33% compared to the original 2020 plan and the steps the company will take to achieve this;

the company's continued focus of its capital portfolio on value-driven investments that will enhance margins, improve business processes and reduce operating and sustaining capital costs;

the expectation that the bi-directional interconnecting pipelines between Syncrude and Oil Sands Base and the deployment of autonomous haul trucks at Fort Hills will continue to be funded and will be completed in the second half of 2020 and that the investments in technology for our supply and trading business and core business systems will proceed on schedule;

Suncor's free funds flow target, the expected timing thereof;

the expected timing of debt maturities and Suncor's belief that its debt maturity profile is manageable;

Statements with respect to planned maintenance events and the timing thereof, including at Syncrude and Oil Sands operations Upgraders 1 and 2;
2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.  43

statements about the Fort Hills project, including the expectation that the reduction to a one train operation, running at full utilization will increase funds flow compared to running at full rates and the expectation that Fort Hills will be fully operational on autonomous haul trucks by the fourth quarter of 2020 which will provide additional operational flexibility and lower costs;

that there are no additional planned exploration wells in 2020;

Suncor's belief that its indicative 5-2-2-1 index will continue to be an appropriate measure against Suncor's actual results;

Suncor's planned 2020 capital spending program of $3.6 billion to $4.0 billion and the belief that Suncor will have the capital resources to fund the capital spending program and to meet current and future working capital requirements through cash and cash equivalents balances, cash flow provided by operating activities, available committed credit facilities, issuing commercial paper and, if needed, accessing capital markets;

the objectives of Suncor's short-term investment portfolio and Suncor's expectation that the maximum weighted average term to maturity of the short-term investment portfolio will not exceed six months, and that all investments will be with counterparties with investment grade debt ratings;

the company's priority regarding the management of debt levels given the company's long-term growth plans and future expected volatility in the pricing environment and Suncor's belief that a phased and flexible approach to existing and future growth projects should assist Suncor in its ability to manage project costs and debt levels;

Suncor's belief that the disciplined actions around liquidity and capital spending that it has taken to address the recent economic downturn will help sustain the financial health of the company;

the company's belief that it does not have any guarantees or off-balance sheet arrangements that have, or are reasonably likely to have, a current or future material effect on the company's financial performance or financial condition, results of operations, liquidity or capital expenditures; and

Suncor's full year outlook range on total capital expenditures, current income taxes, refinery utilization rates, refinery throughput and refined product sales and business environment outlook assumptions for Brent Sullom Voe, WTI at Cushing, WCS at Hardisty, AECO-C Spot, New York Harbor 2-1-1 crack and the Cdn$/US$ exchange rate.

Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve a number of risks and uncertainties, some that are similar to other oil and gas companies and some that are unique to Suncor. Suncor's actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by its forward-looking statements, so readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on them. The financial and operating performance of the company's reportable operating segments, specifically Oil Sands, E&P, and R&M, may be affected by a number of factors.

Factors that affect Suncor's Oil Sands segment include, but are not limited to, volatility in the prices for crude oil and other production, and the related impacts of fluctuating light/heavy and sweet/sour crude oil differentials; changes in the demand for refinery feedstock and diesel fuel, including the possibility that refiners that process the company's proprietary production will be closed, experience equipment failure or other accidents; Suncor's ability to operate its Oil Sands facilities reliably in order to meet production targets; the output of newly commissioned facilities, the performance of which may be difficult to predict during initial operations; Suncor's dependence on pipeline capacity and other logistical constraints, which may affect the company's ability to distribute products to market and which may cause the company to delay or cancel planned growth projects in the event of insufficient takeaway capacity; Suncor's ability to finance Oil Sands economic investment and asset sustainment and maintenance capital expenditures; the availability of bitumen feedstock for upgrading operations, which can be negatively affected by poor ore grade quality, unplanned mine equipment and extraction plant maintenance, tailings storage, and in situ reservoir and equipment performance, or the unavailability of third-party bitumen; changes in operating costs, including the cost of labour, natural gas and other energy sources used in oil sands processes; and the company's ability to complete projects, including planned maintenance events, both on time and on budget, which could be impacted by competition from other projects (including other oil sands projects) for goods and services and demands on infrastructure in Alberta's Wood Buffalo region and the surrounding area (including housing, roads and schools).

Factors that affect Suncor's E&P segment include, but are not limited to, volatility in crude oil and natural gas prices; operational risks and uncertainties associated with oil and gas activities, including unexpected formations or pressures, premature declines of reservoirs, fires, blow-outs, equipment failures and other accidents, uncontrollable flows of crude oil, natural gas or well fluids, and pollution and other environmental risks; adverse weather conditions, which could disrupt output from producing assets or impact drilling programs, resulting in increased costs and/or delays in bringing on new production; political, economic and socio-economic risks associated with Suncor's foreign operations, including the unpredictability of operating in Libya due to ongoing political unrest; and market demand for mineral rights and producing properties, potentially leading to losses on disposition or increased property acquisition costs.

Factors that affect our R&M segment include, but are not limited to, fluctuations in demand and supply for refined products that impact the company's margins; market competition, including potential new market entrants; the company's ability to reliably operate refining

44  2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.

and marketing facilities in order to meet production or sales targets; and risks and uncertainties affecting construction or planned maintenance schedules, including the availability of labour and other impacts of competing projects drawing on the same resources during the same time period.

Additional risks, uncertainties and other factors that could influence the financial and operating performance of all of Suncor's operating segments and activities include, but are not limited to, changes in general economic, market and business conditions, such as commodity prices, interest rates and currency exchange rates (including as a result of demand and supply effects resulting from the COVID-19 virus pandemic and the actions of OPEC and non-OPEC countries); fluctuations in supply and demand for Suncor's products; the successful and timely implementation of capital projects, including growth projects and regulatory projects; risks associated with the development and execution of Suncor's major projects and the commissioning and integration of new facilities; the possibility that completed maintenance activities may not improve operational performance or the output of related facilities; the risk that projects and initiatives intended to achieve cash flow growth and/or reductions in operating costs may not achieve the expected results in the time anticipated or at all; competitive actions of other companies, including increased competition from other oil and gas companies or from companies that provide alternative sources of energy; labour and material shortages; actions by government authorities, including the imposition or reassessment of, or changes to, taxes, fees, royalties, duties and other government-imposed compliance costs; changes to laws and government policies that could impact the company's business, including environmental (including climate change), royalty and tax laws and policies; the ability and willingness of parties with whom Suncor has material relationships to perform their obligations to the company; the unavailability of, or outages to, third-party infrastructure that could cause disruptions to production or prevent the company from being able to transport its products; the occurrence of a protracted operational outage, a major safety or environmental incident, or unexpected events such as fires (including forest fires), equipment failures and other similar events affecting Suncor or other parties whose operations or assets directly or indirectly affect Suncor; the potential for security breaches of Suncor's information technology and infrastructure by malicious persons or entities, and the unavailability or failure of such systems to perform as anticipated as a result of such breaches; security threats and terrorist or activist activities; the risk that competing business objectives may exceed Suncor's capacity to adopt and implement change; risks and uncertainties associated with obtaining regulatory, third-party and stakeholder approvals outside of Suncor's control for the company's operations, projects, initiatives and exploration and development activities and the satisfaction of any conditions to approvals; the potential for disruptions to operations and construction projects as a result of Suncor's relationships with labour unions that represent employees at the company's facilities; the company's ability to find new oil and gas reserves that can be developed economically; the accuracy of Suncor's reserves, resources and future production estimates; market instability affecting Suncor's ability to borrow in the capital debt markets at acceptable rates or to issue other securities at acceptable prices; maintaining an optimal debt to cash flow ratio; the success of the company's marketing and logistics activities using derivatives and other financial instruments; the cost of compliance with current and future environmental laws, including climate change laws; risks relating to increased activism and public opposition to fossil fuels and oil sands; risks and uncertainties associated with closing a transaction for the purchase or sale of a business, asset or oil and gas property, including estimates of the final consideration to be paid or received; the ability of counterparties to comply with their obligations in a timely manner; risks associated with joint arrangements in which the company has an interest; risks associated with land claims and Aboriginal consultation requirements; the risk that the company may be subject to litigation; the impact of technology and risks associated with developing and implementing new technologies; and the accuracy of cost estimates, some of which are provided at the conceptual or other preliminary stage of projects and prior to commencement or conception of the detailed engineering that is needed to reduce the margin of error and increase the level of accuracy. The foregoing important factors are not exhaustive.

Many of these risk factors and other assumptions related to Suncor's forward-looking statements are discussed in further detail throughout this MD&A, and in the company's 2019 annual MD&A, the 2019 AIF and Form 40-F on file with Canadian securities commissions at www.sedar.com and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission at www.sec.gov. Readers are also referred to the risk factors and assumptions described in other MD&As that Suncor files from time to time with securities regulatory authorities. Copies of these MD&As are available without charge from the company.

The forward-looking statements contained in this MD&A are made as of the date of this MD&A. Except as required by applicable securities laws, we assume no obligation to update publicly or otherwise revise any forward-looking statements or the foregoing risks and assumptions affecting such forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

2020 FIRST QUARTER   Suncor Energy Inc.  45



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