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Summary of Significant Accounting Policies (Policies)
 3 Months Ended
Mar. 31, 2020
Accounting Policies [Abstract]  
Basis of Presentation [Policy Text Block]
Basis of Presentation
The accompanying unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements have been prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States of America (“GAAP”) for interim financial information and with the SEC’s instructions to Form 10-Q and Article 10 of Regulation S-X. Accordingly, they do not include all of the information and note disclosures required by GAAP for complete consolidated financial statements. In the opinion of management, all adjustments of a normal recurring nature considered necessary for a fair presentation have been included. The accompanying condensed consolidated financial statements include our accounts as well as the accounts of other entities in which we have a controlling financial interest. All intercompany accounts and transactions have been eliminated. To conform to our current period presentation, we have reclassified certain amounts reported in our prior period condensed consolidated financial statements. Results for the three months ended March 31, 2020 may not necessarily be indicative of the results for the year ending December 31, 2020.
Presentation of Advances to Lenders
Advances to lenders represent our payments of cash in exchange for the receipt of mortgage loans from lenders in a transfer
that is accounted for as a secured lending arrangement. These transfers primarily occur when we provide early funding to
lenders for loans that they will subsequently either sell to us or securitize into a Fannie Mae MBS that they will deliver to us.
Early lender funding advances have terms up to 60 days and earn a short-term market rate of interest. Advances to lenders has been presented as a separate line item for all periods presented as increased mortgage refinance activity resulted in a higher balance at period end. In prior periods, advances to lenders were recorded in “Other assets.”
Presentation of Credit Enhancement Expense
Credit enhancement expense primarily consists of costs associated with our Connecticut Avenue Securities® (“CAS”) and Credit Insurance Risk TransferTM (“CIRTTM”) programs as well as enterprise-paid mortgage insurance (“EPMI”). We exclude from this expense costs related to our CAS transactions accounted for as debt instruments and credit risk transfer programs accounted for as derivative instruments. Credit enhancement expense has been presented as a separate line item for all periods presented as the percentage of our book of business covered by freestanding credit enhancements has increased and become a more significant driver of our results of operations. In prior periods, credit enhancement expenses were recorded in “Other expenses, net.”
Presentation of Yield Maintenance Fees
Prior period multifamily yield maintenance fees have been reclassified to conform to the current period presentation. Multifamily yield maintenance fees, or prepayment premiums, are fees that a borrower pays when they prepay their loan. For multifamily loans held in consolidated trust, a portion of the yield maintenance fee is typically passed through to the holders of the trust certificate. As of January 1, 2020, we classify all yield maintenance fees as interest income. For consolidated loans, the portion of the fee passed through to the certificate holders of the trust is classified as interest expense. Previously, we classified multifamily yield maintenance fees as interest income when the fee was associated with a loan refinancing, otherwise the fee was classified as fee and other income. The portion of the fees passed through to the certificate holders of the trust were previously classified as interest expense when the fee was associated with a loan refinancing, otherwise the fee was classified as other expense. The changes in presentation have been applied retrospectively to all periods presented, which have been immaterial historically.
Earnings Per Share, Policy [Policy Text Block]
Earnings per Share
Earnings per share (“EPS”) is presented for basic and diluted EPS. We compute basic EPS by dividing net income attributable to common stockholders by the weighted-average number of shares of common stock outstanding during the period. However, as a result of our conservatorship status and the terms of the senior preferred stock, no amounts would be available to distribute as dividends to common or preferred stockholders (other than to Treasury as the holder of the senior preferred stock). Net income (loss) attributable to common stockholders excludes amounts attributable to the senior preferred stock. Weighted average common shares include 4.7 billion and 4.6 billion shares for the periods ended March 31, 2020 and 2019, respectively, that would be issued upon the full exercise of the warrant issued to Treasury from the date the warrant was issued through March 31, 2020 and 2019, respectively.
The calculation of diluted EPS includes all the components of basic earnings per share, plus the dilutive effect of common stock equivalents such as convertible securities and stock options. Weighted average shares outstanding is increased to include the number of additional common shares that would have been outstanding if the dilutive potential common shares had been issued. For the three months ended March 31, 2020, convertible preferred stock is not included in the calculation because a net loss attributable to common shareholders was incurred and it would have an anti-dilutive effect. For the three months ended March 31, 2019, our diluted EPS weighted average shares outstanding includes shares of common stock that would be issuable upon the conversion of 131 million shares of convertible preferred stock.
New Accounting Pronouncements, Policy [Policy Text Block]
New Accounting Guidance
The CARES Act and Interagency Regulatory Guidance
Section 4013 of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, referred to as the CARES Act, which was enacted in March 2020, provides temporary relief from the accounting and reporting requirements for TDRs regarding certain loan modifications related to COVID-19. The CARES Act provides that a financial institution may elect to suspend the TDR requirements under GAAP for loan modifications related to the COVID-19 pandemic that occur between March 1, 2020 through the earlier of December 31, 2020 or 60 days after the date on which the COVID-19 outbreak national emergency terminates (the “Applicable Period”), as long as the loan was not more than 30 days delinquent as of December 31, 2019. Loan modifications are defined in this section of the CARES Act to include forbearance arrangements, repayment plans, interest rate modifications, and any similar arrangement that defer or delay the payment of principal or interest.
We have elected to account for eligible loan modifications under Section 4013 of the CARES Act. Therefore, the initial relief (i.e., the forbearance arrangement) and the subsequent agreements (i.e., repayment plans and loan modifications) that are necessary to allow the borrower to repay the past due amounts (collectively, the “COVID-19 Relief”), will not be subject to the specialized accounting or disclosures that are required for TDRs if the initial relief related to COVID-19 is granted during the Applicable Period and the borrower was no more than 30 days past due as of December 31, 2019.
In addition to the CARES Act, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, National Credit Union Administration, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the State Banking Regulators (collectively, the “Banking Agencies”) issued an Interagency Statement on Loan Modifications and Reporting for Financial Institutions Working with Customers Affected by the Coronavirus (the “Interagency Statement”) in April 2020. The Interagency Statement primarily provides incremental guidance related to the nonaccrual of interest income. It indicates that financial institutions may continue to accrue interest income on loans that are granted short-term (e.g., six months) payment delays, such as forbearance, if the delay is in response to COVID-19 and the borrower was less than 30 days past due at the time the delay was granted. We are still evaluating this option provided under the Interagency Statement for loans that have received short-term payment deferrals related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Our election on this matter will be finalized during the second quarter of 2020 as this guidance did not affect our first quarter financial statements.
The Current Expected Credit Loss Standard
The Financial Accounting Standards Board (the “FASB”) issued Accounting Standards Update (“ASU”) 2016-13, Financial Instruments—Credit Losses (Topic 326), Measurement of Credit Losses on Financial Instruments in June 2016, which was later amended by ASU 2019-04, ASU 2019-05 and ASU 2019-11. These ASUs (the “CECL standard”) replaced the existing incurred loss impairment methodology for loans that are collectively evaluated for impairment with a methodology that reflects lifetime expected credit losses and requires consideration of a broader range of reasonable and supportable forecast information to develop a lifetime credit loss estimate. The CECL standard also requires credit losses related to AFS debt securities to be recorded through an allowance for credit losses. Our adoption of this standard on January 1, 2020 did not have a material impact on our portfolio of AFS debt securities.
The CECL standard became effective for our fiscal year beginning January 1, 2020. We have changed our accounting policies as described above and implemented system, model and process changes to adopt the standard. Upon adoption, we used a discounted cash flow method to measure expected credit losses on our single-family mortgage loans and an undiscounted loss method to measure expected credit losses on our multifamily mortgage loans. The models used to estimate credit losses incorporated our historical credit loss experience, adjusted for current economic forecasts and the current credit profile of our
loan book of business. The models used reasonable and supportable forecasts for key economic drivers, such as home prices (single-family), rental income (multifamily) and capitalization rates (multifamily).
The adoption of the CECL standard on January 1, 2020 reduced our retained earnings by $1.1 billion on an after-tax basis. The adoption of this guidance increased our overall credit loss reserves primarily as the result of an increase in our single-family loan loss reserves that were previously evaluated on a collective basis for impairment. This increase was partially offset by a decrease in estimated credit losses on loans that were previously considered individually impaired (our TDRs).
The increase in our single-family loan loss reserves that were previously evaluated on a collective basis was primarily driven by the migration from an incurred-loss approach, which allowed us to consider only default events and economic conditions that already existed as of each financial reporting date, to an estimate that incorporates both expected default events over the expected life of each mortgage loan and a forecast of home prices in different economic environments over a reasonable and supportable period. The increase in loss reserves for this portion of our book was low relative to its size due to the credit quality of these loans and because as of the date of adoption our current model forecasted home price growth.
The allowance for loan losses on the TDR book was already measured using an expected lifetime credit loss estimate. The credit losses on this portion of our single-family book decreased upon the adoption of the CECL standard because the new guidance required us to exclude from our estimate of credit losses all pre-foreclosure and post-foreclosure costs that are expected to be advanced after the balance sheet date. Prior to the adoption of the CECL standard, we incorporated these costs in our estimate of credit losses for this book.
Impacts on Key Balance Sheet Line Items upon Implementation of the CECL Standard
The following table discloses the impact of adopting the CECL standard on key balance sheet line items.
Balance as of December 31, 2019Transition Impact from Adoption of the CECL Standard Balance as of January 1, 2020
(Dollars in millions)
Mortgage loans held for sale$6,773  $50  $6,823  
Allowance for loan losses (9,016) (1,722) (10,738) 
Other assets(1)
14,312  230  14,542  
Deferred tax assets, net 11,910  303  12,213  
Accumulated deficit (beginning retained earnings)(118,776) (1,139) (119,915) 
(1)Transition adjustment primarily represents the reclassification and recognition of freestanding credit enhancements not contractually attached to the loan.
For a discussion of the current period measurement of our allowance for loan losses under the CECL standard, including the expected impact of the COVID-19 outbreak, see “Note 4, Allowance for Loan Losses.”
Reference Rate Reform
In March 2020, the FASB issued ASU 2020-04, Reference Rate Reform (Topic 848): Facilitation of the Effects of Reference Rate Reform on Financial Reporting (“ASU 2020-04”), which provides optional temporary relief to ease the potential burden of transitioning away from LIBOR and other discontinued interest rates. Specifically, ASU 2020-04 provides optional practical expedients and exceptions under GAAP related to contract modifications and hedging relationships that reference LIBOR or another reference rate expected to be discontinued. Qualifying for the accounting relief provided by ASU 2020-04 is subject to meeting certain criteria and is generally only available to contract modifications made and hedging relationships entered into or evaluated prospectively from March 12, 2020 through December 31, 2022.
We did not enter into any contract modifications between March 12, 2020 and March 31, 2020 that would be eligible for the accounting relief provided by ASU 2020-04. We also had no hedge accounting relationships during that period. We will continue to evaluate ASU 2020-04 to determine the timing and extent to which we will apply the provided accounting relief.
Use of Estimates, Policy [Policy Text Block]
Use of Estimates
Preparing condensed consolidated financial statements in accordance with GAAP requires management to make estimates and assumptions that affect our reported amounts of assets and liabilities, disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities as of the dates of our condensed consolidated financial statements, as well as our reported amounts of revenues and expenses during the reporting periods. Management has made significant estimates in a variety of areas including, but not limited to, the allowance for loan losses. For example, significant uncertainty regarding the expected impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak required substantial management judgment in assessing our allowance for loan losses as of March 31, 2020. Actual results could differ from these estimates.
Consolidations, Policy [Policy Text Block]
Principles of Consolidation
Our condensed consolidated financial statements include our accounts as well as the accounts of the other entities in which we have a controlling financial interest. All intercompany balances and transactions have been eliminated. The typical condition for a controlling financial interest is ownership of a majority of the voting interests of an entity. A controlling financial interest may also exist in entities through arrangements that do not involve voting interests, such as a variable interest entity (“VIE”).
We have interests in various entities that are considered to be variable interest entities (“VIEs”). The primary types of entities are securitization and resecuritization trusts, limited partnerships and special purpose vehicles (“SPVs”). These interests include investments in securities issued by VIEs, such as Fannie Mae MBS created pursuant to our securitization transactions and our guaranty to the entity. We consolidate the substantial majority of our single-class securitization trusts because our role as guarantor and master servicer provides us with the power to direct matters (primarily the servicing of mortgage loans) that impact the credit risk to which we are exposed. In contrast, we do not consolidate single-class securitization trusts when other organizations have the power to direct these activities unless we have the unilateral ability to dissolve the trust. We also do not consolidate our resecuritization trusts unless we have the unilateral ability to dissolve the trust. Historically, the vast majority of underlying assets of our resecuritization trusts were limited to Fannie Mae securities that were collateralized by mortgage loans held in consolidated trusts. However, with our issuance of UMBS beginning in June 2019, we include securities issued by Freddie Mac in some of our resecuritization trusts. The mortgage loans that serve as collateral for Freddie Mac-issued securities are not held in trusts that are consolidated by Fannie Mae.Unconsolidated VIEsWe do not consolidate VIEs when we are not deemed to be the primary beneficiary. Our unconsolidated VIEs include securitization and resecuritization trusts, limited partnerships, and certain SPVs designed to transfer credit risk
Marketable Securities, Policy [Policy Text Block]
Investments in Securities
Impairment of Available-for-Sale Debt Securities
An available-for-sale (“AFS”) debt security is impaired if the fair value of the investment is less than its amortized cost basis. Credit losses (benefits) on impaired AFS debt securities are recognized through an allowance for credit losses. Credit losses are evaluated on an individual security basis and are limited to the difference between the fair value of the debt security and its amortized cost basis. If we intend to sell a debt security or it is more likely than not that we will be required to sell the debt security before recovery, any allowance for credit losses on the debt security is reversed and the amortized cost basis of the debt security is written down to its fair value.
Trading SecuritiesTrading securities are recorded at fair value with subsequent changes in fair value recorded as “Fair value losses, net” in our condensed consolidated statements of operations and comprehensive income.
Available-for-Sale Securities
We record AFS securities at fair value with unrealized gains and losses, recorded net of tax, as a component of “Other comprehensive income (loss)” and we recognize realized gains and losses from the sale of AFS securities in “Investment gains (losses), net” in our condensed consolidated statements of operations and comprehensive income. We define the amortized cost basis of our AFS securities as unpaid principal balance, net of unamortized premiums and discounts, and other cost basis adjustments.
Pursuant to the CECL standard, we record an allowance for credit losses for AFS securities that reflects the impairment for credit losses, limited by the amount that fair value is less than the amortized cost. Credit-related losses are written off when deemed uncollectible. Recoveries of credit losses are recorded as a reversal of the allowance for credit losses and benefit for credit losses only prior to the write-down or write-off of a security’s amortized cost basis. Impairment due to non-credit losses are recorded as unrealized losses within other comprehensive income.
Financing Receivable, Held-for-sale [Policy Text Block]
Loans Held for Sale
When we acquire mortgage loans that we intend to sell or securitize via trusts that will not be consolidated, we classify the loans as held for sale (“HFS”). We report the carrying value of HFS loans at the lower of cost or fair value. Any excess of an HFS loan’s cost over its fair value is recognized as a valuation allowance, with changes in the valuation allowance recognized as “Investment gains (losses), net” in our condensed consolidated statements of operations and comprehensive income. We recognize interest income on HFS loans on an accrual basis, unless we determine that the ultimate collection of contractual principal or interest payments in full is not reasonably assured. Purchased premiums, discounts and other cost basis adjustments on HFS loans are deferred upon loan acquisition, included in the cost basis of the loan, and not amortized. We determine any lower of cost or fair value adjustment on HFS loans at an individual loan level.
For nonperforming loans transferred from held for investment (“HFI”) to HFS, based upon a change in our intent, we record the loans at the lower of cost or fair value on the date of transfer. When the fair value of the nonperforming loan is less than its amortized cost, we record a write-off against the allowance for loan losses in an amount equal to the difference between the amortized cost basis and the fair value of the loan. If the amount written off upon transfer exceeds the allowance related to the
transferred loan, we record the excess in provision for credit losses. If the amounts written off are less than the allowance related to the loans, we recognize a benefit for credit losses.
Nonperforming loans include both seriously delinquent and reperforming loans, which are loans that were previously delinquent but are performing again because payments on the mortgage loan have become current with or without the use of a loan modification plan. Single-family seriously delinquent loans are loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the foreclosure process. Multifamily seriously delinquent loans are loans that are 60 days or more past due.
In the event that we reclassify a performing loan from HFI to HFS, based upon a change in our intent, the allowance for loan losses previously recorded on the HFI mortgage loan is reversed through earnings at the time of reclassification. The mortgage loan is reclassified into HFS at its amortized cost basis and a valuation allowance is established to the extent that the amortized cost basis of the loan exceeds its fair value. The initial recognition of the valuation allowance and any subsequent changes are recorded as a gain or loss in “Investment gains (losses), net.”
We report the carrying value of HFS loans at the lower of cost or fair value and record valuation changes in “Investment gains (losses), net” in our condensed consolidated statements of operations and comprehensive income.
Financing Receivable, Held-for-investment [Policy Text Block]
Loans Held for Investment
When we acquire mortgage loans that we have the ability and the intent to hold for the foreseeable future or until maturity, we classify the loans as HFI. When we consolidate a securitization trust, we recognize the loans underlying the trust in our condensed consolidated balance sheets. The trusts do not have the ability to sell mortgage loans and the use of such loans is limited exclusively to the settlement of obligations of the trusts. Therefore, mortgage loans acquired when we have the intent to securitize via consolidated trusts are generally classified as HFI in our condensed consolidated balance sheets both prior to and subsequent to their securitization.
We report the carrying value of HFI loans at the unpaid principal balance, net of unamortized premiums and discounts, other cost basis adjustments, and allowance for loan losses. We define the amortized cost of HFI loans as unpaid principal balance and accrued interest receivable, net of unamortized premiums, discounts, and other cost basis adjustments. For purposes of our condensed consolidated balance sheets, we present accrued interest receivable separately from the amortized cost of our loans held for investment. We recognize interest income on HFI loans on an accrual basis using the effective yield method over the contractual life of the loan, including the amortization of any deferred cost basis adjustments, such as the premium or discount at acquisition, unless we determine that the ultimate collection of contractual principal or interest payments in full is not reasonably assured.
We report the amortized cost of HFI loans for which we have not elected the fair value option at the unpaid principal balance, net of unamortized premiums and discounts, other cost basis adjustments, and accrued interest receivable. For purposes of our condensed consolidated balance sheet, we present accrued interest receivable separately from the amortized cost of our loans held for investment
Nonaccrual Loans [Policy Text Block] Nonaccrual LoansWe discontinue accruing interest on loans when we believe collectability of principal or interest is not reasonably assured, which for a single-family loan we have determined, based on our historical experience, to be when the loan becomes two months or more past due according to its contractual terms. Interest previously accrued but not collected on loans is reversed through interest income at the date a loan is placed on nonaccrual status. For single-family loans on nonaccrual status, we recognize income when cash payments are received. We return a non-modified single-family loan to accrual status at the point that the borrower brings the loan current. We return a modified single-family loan to accrual status at the point that the borrower successfully makes all required payments during the trial period (generally three to four months) and the modification is made permanent. As of January 1, 2020, we place a multifamily loan on nonaccrual status when the loan becomes two months or more past due according to its contractual terms unless the loan is well secured such that collectability of principal and accrued interest is reasonably assured. For multifamily loans on nonaccrual status, we apply any payment received on a cost recovery basis to reduce principal on the mortgage loan. We return a multifamily loan to accrual status when the borrower cures the delinquency of the loan. Transactions related to the multifamily nonaccrual policy have been immaterial historically
Allowance for Loan Losses [Policy Text Block]
Our allowance for loan losses is a valuation account that is deducted from the amortized cost basis of HFI loans to present the net amount expected to be collected on the loans. The allowance for loan losses reflects an estimate of expected credit losses on single-family and multifamily HFI loans held by Fannie Mae and by consolidated Fannie Mae MBS trusts. Estimates of credit losses are based on expected cash flows derived from internal models that estimate loan performance under simulated ranges of economic environments. Our modeled loan performance is based on our historical experience of loans with similar risk characteristics adjusted to reflect current conditions and reasonable and supportable forecasts. Our historical loss experience and our credit loss estimates capture the possibility of remote events that could result in credit losses on loans that are considered low risk. The allowance for loans losses does not consider benefits from freestanding credit enhancements, such as our CAS and CIRT programs and multifamily Delegated Underwriting and Servicing (“DUS®”) lender risk-sharing arrangements, which are recorded in “Other assets” in our condensed consolidated balance sheets. We have elected not to measure an allowance for credit losses on accrued interest receivable balances as we have a nonaccrual policy to ensure the timely reversal of unpaid accrued interest. See “Note 4, Allowance for Loan Losses” for additional information about our current period provision for loan losses, including a discussion of the estimates used in measuring the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on our allowance.
Changes to our estimate of expected credit losses, including changes due to the passage of time, are recorded through the benefit (provision) for credit losses. When calculating our allowance for loan losses, we consider only our amortized cost in the loans at the balance sheet date. We record write-offs as a reduction to the allowance for loan losses when losses are
confirmed through the receipt of assets in satisfaction of a loan, such as the underlying collateral upon foreclosure or cash upon completion of a short sale. Additionally, we record write-offs as a reduction to our allowance for loan losses when a loan is determined to be uncollectible and upon the transfer of a nonperforming loan from HFI to HFS. We include expected recoveries of amounts previously written off and expected to be written off in determining our allowance for loan lossesThe estimated mark-to-market LTV ratio is a primary factor we consider when estimating our allowance for loan losses for single-family loans. As LTV ratios increase, the borrower's equity in the home decreases, which may negatively affect the borrower's ability to refinance or to sell the property for an amount at or above the outstanding balance of the loanProperty rental income and property valuations are key inputs to our internally assigned credit risk ratings.We maintain an allowance for loan losses for HFI loans held by Fannie Mae and by consolidated Fannie Mae MBS trusts, excluding loans for which we have elected the fair value option. When calculating our allowance for loan losses, we consider the unpaid principal balance, net of unamortized premiums and discounts, and other cost basis adjustments of HFI loans at the balance sheet date. We record write-offs as a reduction to our allowance for loan losses at the point of foreclosure, completion of a short sale, upon the redesignation of nonperforming loans from HFI to HFS or when a loan is determined to be uncollectible.Our provision for loan losses can vary substantially from period to period based on a number of factors, such as changes in actual and forecasted home prices or property valuations, fluctuations in actual and forecasted interest rates, borrower payment behavior, events such as natural disasters or pandemics, the types and volume of our loss mitigation activities, including forbearance and loan modifications, the volume of foreclosures completed, and the redesignation of loans from HFI to HFS. Estimating the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on our expected loan loss reserves required significant management judgment, including estimates of the number of single-family borrowers who will receive forbearance and any resulting loan modifications that will be provided once the forbearance period ends. Under our CECL methodology, depending on the type of loan modification granted, loss severity estimates vary. Our provision can also be impacted by updates to the models, assumptions, and data used in determining our allowance for loan losses. Freestanding credit enhancements primarily consist of transactions under our CAS program, our CIRT program, and certain lender risk-sharing programs, including our multifamily DUS program. The impact from these credit enhancements is recorded in “Fee and other income” in our condensed consolidated statements of operations and comprehensive income.
Impaired Financing Receivable, Policy
Single-Family Loans
We estimate the amount expected to be collected on our single-family loans using a discounted cash flow approach. Our allowance for loan losses is calculated as the difference between the amortized cost basis of the loan and the present value of expected cash flows on the loan. Expected cash flows include payments from the borrower, net of servicing fees, contractually attached credit enhancements and proceeds from the sale of the underlying collateral, net of selling costs.
When foreclosure of a single-family loan is probable, the allowance for loan losses is calculated as the difference between the amortized cost basis of the loan and the fair value of the collateral as of the reporting date, adjusted for the estimated costs to sell the property and the amount of expected recoveries from contractually attached credit enhancements or other proceeds we expect to receive.
Expected cash flows are developed using internal models that capture market and loan characteristic inputs. Market inputs include information such as actual and forecasted home prices, interest rates, volatility, and spreads, while loan characteristic inputs include information such as mark-to-market loan-to-value (“LTV”) ratios, delinquency status, geography, and borrower FICO credit scores. The model assigns a probability to borrower events including contractual payment, loan payoff and default under various economic environments based on historical data, current conditions, and reasonable and supportable forecasts.
The two primary drivers of our forecasted economic environments are interest rates and home prices. Our model projects the range of possible interest rate scenarios over the life of the loan based on actual interest rates and observed option pricing volatility in the capital markets. We develop regional forecasts based on Metropolitan Statistical Area data for single-family home prices using a multi-path simulation that captures home price projections over a five-year period, the period for which we can develop reasonable and supportable forecasts. After the five-year period, the home price forecast immediately reverts to a historical long-term growth rate.
Expected cash flows on the loan are discounted at the effective interest rate on the loan, adjusted for expected prepayments. For single-family loans that have not been modified in a troubled debt restructuring (“TDR”), the discount rate is updated each reporting period to reflect changes in expected prepayments. Expected cash flows do not include expected extensions of the contractual term unless such extension is the result of a reasonably expected TDR.
We consider the effects of actual and reasonably expected TDRs in our estimate of credit losses. These effects include any economic concession provided or expected to be provided to a borrower experiencing financial difficulty. We consider our current servicing practices and our historical experience to estimate reasonably expected TDRs. When a loan is contractually modified in a TDR, to capture the concession, the discount rate on the loan is locked to the rate in effect just prior to the modification and is no longer updated for changes in expected prepayments.
Multifamily Loans
Our allowance for loan losses on multifamily loans is calculated based on estimated probabilities of default and loss severities to derive expected loss ratios, which are then applied to the amortized cost basis of the loans. Our probabilities of default and severity are estimated using internal models based on historical loss experience of loans with similar risk characteristics that affect credit performance, such as debt service coverage ratio (“DSCR”), mark-to-market LTV ratio, collateral type, age, loan size, geography, prepayment penalty term, and note type. Our models simulate a range of possible future economic scenarios, which are used to estimate probabilities of default and loss severities. Key inputs to our models include rental income, which drives expected DSCRs for our loans, and capitalization rates, which project future property values. Our reasonable and supportable forecasts for multifamily rental income and capitalization rates, which are projected based on Metropolitan Statistical Area data, extend through the contractual maturity of the loans. For TDRs, we use a discounted cash flow approach to estimate expected credit losses.
When foreclosure of a multifamily loan is probable, the allowance for loan losses is calculated as the difference between the amortized cost basis of the loan and the fair value of the collateral as of the reporting date, adjusted for the estimated costs to sell the property and the amount of expected recoveries from contractually attached credit enhancements or other proceeds we expect to receive.