EX-99.4 5 y47500exv99w4.htm EX-99.4: 2007 UPDATE ON ASBESTOS RESERVES EX-99.4

Exhibit 99.4
The Chubb Corporation 2007 Update on Asbestos Reserves Date of release 01/29/2008


Forward Looking Statements The following materials contain "forward looking statements," including those relating to loss reserves and claim estimates, that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or suggested by such statements. Such risks or uncertainties include but are not limited to those which may be noted more fully in the materials themselves, as well as those discussed or identified from time to time in The Chubb Corporation's public filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Chubb Corporation assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information set forth in the following materials, which speak as of January 29, 2008 or as otherwise specified in the materials. 2007AsbestosSlides12408


Contents Purpose of Updated Review Conclusions Evaluation Methodology Exposure Analysis Asbestos Payments and Reserves Three Year Reserve Comparison Summary 2007AsbestosSlides12408


Purpose of Review Reassess Chubb's ultimate liability regarding asbestos exposures using an internal analysis, supported by our independent outside consulting actuaries Determine appropriate reserve levels Ensure aggressive case management of asbestos claims manage our exposure identify trends or issues that may impact exposure Provide relevant substantive information needed by investors and rating agencies 2007AsbestosSlides12408


Conclusions Our 2007 analysis of asbestos liabilities concluded current net reserves are adequate The carried net reserve of $793M at 12/31/07 represents Chubb's best estimate of our ultimate asbestos liability This amount contemplates approximately a 5% reinsurance recoverable Net payments for asbestos liabilities in 2007 were $71M Current reserves calculate to a 3 year survival ratio of 9.9 2007AsbestosSlides12408


Evaluation Methodology Chubb segmented its defendant policyholders into two groups Traditional defendant policyholders (Tiers 1 & 2) Those engaged in asbestos mining, manufacturing and building products industries Peripheral defendant policyholders (Tiers 3 & 4) Those who manufactured, distributed, or installed an asbestos-containing product or who owned or operated a facility where asbestos products were present 2007AsbestosSlides12408


Exposure Analysis Within these policyholder categories: All Tier 1 & 2 accounts and Tier 3 & 4 accounts with Chubb incurred losses of at least $5M or judged to have high potential exposure were evaluated individually. Claimant information and available coverage were reviewed for each defendant policyholder, including terms of coverage, policy limits and aggregate limits. Tier 3 & 4 accounts not individually evaluated were analyzed in the aggregate using statistical techniques. Factors considered include available coverage, claimant count, report year, bankruptcy, coverage dispute and case reserve amount. Future claims from unknown defendant policyholders were estimated based on claim reporting patterns and projected claim severities. 2007AsbestosSlides12408


Asbestos Payments & Reserves by Category # $ $ Traditional Defendants Tier 1 5 - 39 Traditional Defendants Tier 2 21 26 181 Peripheral Defendants Tiers 3 & 4 385 45 385 All Other 26 Reserves for future claims from unknown policyholders TBD - 162 ____ ____ ____ Total 411 71 793 No. of Open Total Net Net Asbestos Policy- Paid Reserves holders in 2007 At 12/31/07 At 12/31/07 ($ in millions) 2007AsbestosSlides12408


Asbestos Payments & Reserves by Category Total net asbestos reserves: $793M Case reserves of $356M Established by Claim Department on known claims IBNR reserves of $437M Includes provision for: potential reserve development on known defendant policyholders (development) future claims from unknown defendant policyholders (pure IBNR) future declaratory judgment actions and other litigation 2007AsbestosSlides12408


Asbestos Net Loss Reserve Comparison ($ in Millions) 2006 2005 2007AsbestosSlides12408 2007 Beginning Reserves $789 $880 $906 Incurred Losses & LAE 75 18 35 CY Payments for Losses (54) (88) (41) CY Payments for LAE (17) (21) (20) Ending Reserves $793 $789 $880 IBNR portion of Ending Reserves $437 $439 $467


Summary Chubb's asbestos net reserves of $793M at 12/31/07 are based on our 2007 analysis of our ultimate asbestos liabilities This reserve represents Chubb's best estimate of our ultimate asbestos liability This reserve amount is at full (undiscounted) value No consideration has been given for legislative or judicial relief The net reserve reflects a modest reinsurance recoverable amount of approximately 5% of the gross reserve 2007AsbestosSlides12408