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Risk
6 Months Ended
Dec. 31, 2019
Risks and Uncertainties [Abstract]  
Risk

(6) Risk

 

(a) Investment Related Risk

 

The NAV of RISE’s shares relates directly to the value of the U.S. treasuries, cash and cash equivalents held by RISE and the portfolio’s negative effective duration established and maintained through RISE’s investment in Treasury Instruments. Fluctuations in the prices of these assets could materially adversely affect the value and performance of an investment in RISE’s shares. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results; all or substantially all of an investment in RISE could be lost.

 

Investments in debt securities typically decrease in value when interest rates rise, however, RISE attempts to maintain a portfolio with a negative effective duration and therefore anticipates that an increase in interest rates may increase RISE’s value, and a decrease in rates may lower RISE’s value. The NAV of RISE’s shares relates directly to the value of U.S. Treasuries and Treasury Instruments held by RISE which are materially impacted by interest rate movements. The magnitude of the impact on value from a change in interest rates is often greater for longer-term fixed income than shorter-term securities. Interest rates have remained near historic lows since the market events of 2008 and may remain low.

 

Interest rate movements are heavily influenced by the action of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and other central banks. Their actions are based on judgments and policies which involve numerous political and economic factors which are unpredictable. Recent interest rate and monetary policies have been unprecedented and may continue to be so.

 

RISE attempts to track a portfolio benchmark. The performance of RISE may not closely track the performance of the RISE Benchmark Portfolio for a variety of reasons. For example, RISE incurs operating expenses and portfolio transaction costs not incurred by the benchmark. RISE is also required to manage cash flows and may experience operational inefficiencies the benchmark does not. In addition, RISE may not be fully invested in the contents of its benchmark at all times or may hold securities not included in its benchmark.

 

RISE invests in Treasury Instruments and U.S. treasuries with exposure to different maturity dates. Generally, RISE’s exposure to securities with maturities of 2 and 5 years will be greater than its exposure to securities with maturities of 10 years. Interest rates do not change uniformly for U.S. Treasuries of different maturities and therefore if interest rates rise, the investment performance of RISE will be impacted by RISE’s current maturity exposure which may be different from the expectations of the Sponsor and investors in RISE. At any time, RISE’s maturity exposure may not be optimal with respect to a movement in interest rates which would negatively impact performance.

 

The NAV of BDRY’s shares relates directly to the value of the futures portfolio, cash and cash equivalents held by BDRY. Fluctuations in the prices of these assets could materially adversely affect the value and performance of an investment in BDRY’s shares. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results; all or substantially all of an investment in BDRY could be lost.

 

The NAV of BDRY’s shares relates directly to the value of futures investments held by BDRY which are materially impacted by fluctuations in changes in spot charter rates. Charter rates for dry bulk vessels are volatile and have declined significantly since their historic highs and may remain at low levels or decrease further in the future.

 

Futures and options contracts have expiration dates. Before or upon the expiration of a contract, BDRY may be required to enter into a replacement contract that is priced higher or that have less favorable terms than the contract being replaced (see “Negative Roll Risk,” below). The Freight Futures market settles in cash against published indices, so there is no physical delivery against the futures contracts.

 

Similar to other futures contracts, the Freight Futures curve shape could be either in “contango” (where the futures curve is upward sloping with next futures price higher than the current one) or “backwardation” (where each the next futures price is lower than the current one). Contango curves are generally characterized by negative roll cost, as the expiring contract value is lower that the next prompt contract value, assuming the same lot size. That means there could be losses incurred when the contracts are rolled each period and such losses are independent of the Freight Futures price level.

 

(b) Liquidity Risk

 

In certain circumstances, such as the disruption of the orderly markets for the futures contracts or Financial Instruments in which the Funds invest, the Funds might not be able to dispose of certain holdings quickly or at prices that represent what the market value may have been in an orderly market. Futures and option positions cannot always be liquidated at the desired price. It is difficult to execute a trade at a specific price when there is a relatively small volume of buy and sell orders in a market. A market disruption can also make it difficult to liquidate a position. The large size of the positions that the Funds may acquire increases the risk of illiquidity both by making its positions more difficult to liquidate and by potentially increasing losses while trying to do so. Such a situation may prevent the Funds from limiting losses, realizing gains or achieving a high correlation with the applicable Benchmark Portfolio.