EX-99.(C)(3) 3 nt10006718x2_ex99-c3.htm EXHIBIT (C)(3)

Exhibit (C)(3)
 Strictly Private and Confidential    Citi Banking, Capital Markets & Advisory | TransportationNovember 5, 2019  Project EuropaPresentation to the Board of Directors 
 

     Confidential Material Disclaimer  The following pages contain material provided to the Board of Directors of Aircastle Limited (“Europa” or the “Company”) by Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (“Citi”) in connection with a potential transaction involving the Company.The accompanying material was compiled or prepared on a confidential basis solely for the use of the Board of Directors of the Company and not with a view toward public disclosure under any securities laws or otherwise. The information contained in the accompanying material was obtained from the Company and other sources. Any estimates and projections for the Company contained herein have been prepared or adopted by the management of the Company, obtained from public sources, or are based upon such estimates and projections, and involve numerous and significant subjective determinations, and there is no assurance that such estimates and projections will be realized. Citi does not take responsibility for such estimates and projections, or the basis on which they were prepared. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of such information and nothing contained herein is, or shall be relied upon as, a representation, whether as to the past, the present or the future. In preparing the accompanying material, Citi assumed and relied, without independent verification, upon the accuracy and completeness of all financial and other information and data publicly available or provided to or otherwise reviewed by or discussed with Citi and upon the assurances of the managements and other representatives of the Company that they are not aware of any relevant information that has been omitted or that remains undisclosed to Citi.The accompanying material was not prepared for use by readers not as familiar with the Company as the Board of Directors of the Company and, accordingly, neither the Company nor Citi nor their respective legal or financial advisors or accountants take any responsibility for the accompanying material if used by persons other than the Board of Directors of the Company. The accompanying material is necessarily based upon information available, and financial, stock market and other conditions and circumstances existing and disclosed, to Citi as of the date of the accompanying material. Citi does not have any obligation to update or otherwise revise the accompanying material. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as legal, regulatory, tax or accounting advice.  1 
 

   Implied Proposed Merger Consideration Metrics  Source: Note:  (1)(2)(3)(4)  Company filings, Europa Management, FactSet.Projections provided by Europa Management. Balance sheet data as of September 30, 2019.Europa fully diluted share count of 76.413 million as of November 4, 2019 per Europa Management. Consists of 74.635 million basic shares, 0.067 million RSUs, and 1.711 million PSUs. Day prior to Europa announcement of strategic alternatives.Day of Europa’s Q2 2019 earnings announcement.Net debt of $4,982 million and $69 million in investment in affiliates as of September 30, 2019 per Europa Management.Book Value Per Share calculated as Shareholders’ Equity of $2,038 million as of September 30, 2019 divided by basic shares issued and outstanding of 74.635 million as of September 30, 2019.  (1)  2  Proposed  Price / Pre-Tax Income  2019E  $2.36  10.1x  13.6x  2020E  2.57  9.3  12.5  Price / Earnings  2019E  $2.15  11.1x  14.9x  2020E  2.40  9.9  13.3                                 October 23, 2019   Merger Consideration  ($ in millions, except per share items)     Metric     $23.86  $32.00  Implied Premium / (Discount) to Closing Share Price on November 4, 2019    $27.31    (13%)  17%  Implied Premium / (Discount) to Closing Share Price on October 23, 2019 (1)    23.86    --  34  Implied Premium / (Discount) to Closing Share Price on August 6, 2019 (2)    19.73    21  62  % Premium / (Discount) to:            52-Week Intraday High Prior to Announcement of Strategic Alternatives (October 23, 2019)  $23.86      --  34%  52-Week Intraday Low (December 26, 2018)  15.75      51%  103  VWAP for the 12 Months Prior to October 23, 2019 (1)  20.00      19  60  Equity Value        $1,823  $2,445  Firm Value (3)        6,736  7,358              Price / Book            September 30, 2019A (4)  $27.31      0.87x  1.17x                     
 

       Updates to the Analysis Since October 28th Board Meeting  Valuation date as of September 30, 2019Balance sheet and share count have been rolled forwardBalance sheet data now as of September 30, 2019Share count as of November 4, 2019Cost of equity estimate has been refinedAssumes ~2.5x net debt / equity based on Discounted Dividends Analysis assumed target leverageMarket update of selected companies analysis as of November 4, 2019  3 
 

   Summary Financial Analysis  Source: Note:  Company filings, Europa Management, FactSet.Projections provided by Europa Management. Assumes illustrative valuation date of September 30, 2019.Europa fully diluted share count of 76.413 million as of November 4, 2019 per Europa  (1)  PSUs.Rounded to the nearest $0.10, except for Trading Range and Net Asset Value per Share.  Management. Consists of 74.635 million basic shares, 0.067 million RSUs, and 1.711 million (4)  Book Value Per Share calculated as Shareholders’ Equity of $2,038 million as of September 30, 2019 divided by basic shares issued and outstanding of 74.635 million as of September 30, 2019.Discounted to November 4, 2019 assuming 1-year forward estimate as of analyst publication date. As of June 30, 2019 based on average of two latest available appraisals.Day of Europa’s Q2 2019 earnings announcement.Day prior to Europa’s announcement of strategic alternatives.  Share Price as of 8/6/2019(5): $19.73 Share Price as of 10/23/2019(6): $23.86  Proposed Merger Consideration: $32.00    (6)  4  Implied Per Share Value (1)  Excludes selected transactions due to lack of publicly available information regarding recent aircraft leasing platform sales, which have typically been private transactions.Methodology  Price / Book Range: 0.89x - 0.96x  Current Book Value per Share of $27.31 (9/30/2019)(2)Price / 2020E Pre-Tax Income Range: 5.5x - 7.1x  2020E Pre-Tax Income per Share of $2.57Price / 2020E Net Income Range: 7.2x - 7.9x  2020E Earnings per Share of $2.40Terminal Year Price / Book: 0.80x - 1.00x; Cost of Equity: 8.1% - 9.4%  Gross Debt / Equity Target of 2.5x  Trading Range52-Week Intraday Trading Range to Unaffected Date of 10/23/2019  Intraday Trading Range from Unaffected Date of 10/23/2019 (6) to 11/4/2019  Discounted Wall Street Research Analyst Price Targets (3)Price Target Range: $18.00 - $26.00  Discounted at Mid-Point Cost of Equity: 8.8%Selected Precedent Premiums Paid Analysis  (6)20.0% - 30.0% Premium to Unaffected Share Price as of 10/23/2019 of $23.86  20.0% - 30.0% Premium to Share Price as of 8/6/2019 (Q2 2019 Earnings) of $19.73(5)  Net Asset Value per Share (4)Based on Average of Two Third-Party Appraisals for Maintenance-Adjusted Current Market Value    Selected Companies Analysis  Price / Book    Price / Pre-Tax Income    Price / Earnings    Discounted Dividends Analysis    For Reference Only                                                            $24.40  $14.20  $17.30  $22.70  $15.75  $16.90  $11.64  $26.30  $18.20  $19.10  $29.00  $23.86  $24.00  $31.00      $23.70  $27.74  $28.60$25.60 
 

 1. Supporting Materials 
 

                                 $1,269  $1,400  $1,700  $1,700  $1,700  $1,331  $1,038  $1,317  $1,198  $1,053  $1,100  2018A  2019E  2020E  2021E  2022E  2023E                                    $911  $911  $995  $1,114  $1,194  $812  $852  $890  $890  $923  $957  2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E                              $2,069  $2,154  $2,261  $2,415  $2,575  $1,834  $1,908  $2,009  $2,046  $2,122  $2,175  Source: Note:  (1)  Company filings, Europa Management, Wall Street research.Consensus estimates represent the median of latest available Wall Street research as of October 23, 2019, the day prior to Europa’s announcement of strategic alternatives.Includes gains on sale of aircraft.  Europa Management Forecast  # of Brokers    6    6    4    Shareholders’ Equity($ in millions)      18A-21E CAGR      # of Brokers    9    9    6  Total Revenue (1)($ in millions)        4    4    3  # of Brokers  Aircraft Acquisition($ in millions)    Europa Management Historicals / Wall Street Estimates  # of Brokers                              $164  $184  $212  $265  $278  $151  $148  $248  $184  $200  2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E  2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E  2016A 2017ANet Income (1)($ in millions)    $1516    6    3    18A-21E CAGR3.8%2.5%  4.0%  2.7%  18A-21E CAGR(5.0%)(6.8%)  5 
 

   ($ in billions,  Share  Dividend  Equity  Firm  Price / Pre-Tax Income     Price /Earnings  Price /  except per share data)  Price  Yield (1)  Value  Value  2019E 2020E    2019E 2020E  Book  AerCap (AER)  $59.00  --  $8.3  $36.6  6.4x 7.1x    7.4x 7.9x  0.89x  Air Lease (AL)  45.76  1.1%  5.2  18.1  7.1 5.5    9.0 7.2  0.96  Considered But Excluded:                    BOC Aviation (2588-HK)  $9.59  2.9%  $6.7  $19.3  8.9x  8.1x  9.9x  8.9x  1.55x  Fly Leasing (FLY)  20.85  --  0.7  3.0  3.3  5.2  3.7  6.1  0.86  Selected Companies Analysis  Financial Data    Europa (Wall Street Estimates)    (2)  $23.86  5.0%  $1.8  $6.8  11.1x  8.7x  11.9x  9.6x  0.89x  Europa (Europa Managment)  (2)  23.86    5.0  1.8  6.8  10.1  9.3  11.1  9.9  0.89  Source:  (1)  (2)  (3)(4)  Public filings and presentations, Europa Management, and FactSet. Market data as of November 4, 2019.For Air Lease and Europa, calculated based on annualized Q3 2019 dividends paid. For BOC Aviation, calculated based on annualized 2H 2019 dividends paid.Market data as of October 23, 2019, the day prior to Europa’s announcement of strategic alternatives. Firm value assumes net debt of $5,043 million and $79 million in investment (5) in affiliates per Q2 2019 filings and Europa Management. Assumes BVPS of $26.96 per  Q2 Earnings Presentation. Rounded to the nearest $0.10.Book Value Per Share calculated as Shareholders’ Equity of $2,038 million as of September 30, 2019 divided by basic shares issued and outstanding of 74.635 million as of September 30, 2019.Per Europa Management.  Considered But Excluded RationaleBOC Aviation considered but excluded due to majority controlling ownership by Chinese SOE (Bank of China) as well as Hong Kong listingFLY Leasing considered but excluded as the company is a publicly traded vehicle externally managed by BBAMImplied Reference Ranges  6   Reference Range   Implied Per Share Value (3)    Methodology  Reference  Low  High  Low  High  Price / Book  9/30/2019A Book Value Per Share: $27.31 (4)  0.89x  0.96x  $24.40  $26.30  Price / Pre-Tax Income  2020E Pre-Tax Income per Share: $2.57 (5)  5.5  7.1  14.20  18.20  Price / Earnings  2020E Earnings per Share: $2.40 (5)  7.2  7.9  17.30  19.10             
 

     Discounted Dividends Analysis    Source: Note: (1)(2)  Company filings, Europa Management.Europa fully diluted share count of 76.413 million as of November 4, 2019 per Europa Management. Consists of 74.635 million basic shares, 0.067 million RSUs, and 1.711 million PSUs. Calculated relative to Europa Management forecasts.This analysis treats forecast stock based compensation as a cash expense, so it is not added back as an other non-cash charge.    AssumptionsDiscounted dividend analysis based on Europa Management forecastsExcess equity capital is distributed annually in the form of a dividend to shareholders based on a target of 2.5x debt / equityEuropa net debt of $4,982 million as of September 30, 2019Assumes any incremental debt is financed through Europa’s existing revolver capacity at a rate of L + 150 bpsAssumes minimum cash of $100 millionMid-period discounting convention applied to dividend streamPrice / Book terminal multiple range applied to terminal Book Equity  Leverage Sensitivity (@ 0.90x Terminal Multiple) Cost of Equity 8.1% 8.8% 9.4%  2.00x2.503.00  $26.0126.4427.56  $25.3625.8126.99  $24.7425.1926.44  TargetLeverage              Sensitivity AnalysisImplied Per Share Value (@ 2.50x Debt / Equity) Cost of Equity   8.1% 8.8% 9.4%  0.80x0.901.00  $23.8326.4429.04  $23.2625.8128.35  $22.7125.1927.67  TerminalMultiple                  ($ in millions)  2H 2019E  2020E  2021E  2022E  2023E  Net Income  $55  $184  $212  $265  $278  After-Tax Interest Savings (Expense) on Paydown / Incremental Debt (1)  0  5  8  9  9  (Gains) Losses from Dispositions  (23)  (28)  (29)  (32)  (32)  Depreciation & Impairment Expense  91  378  415  458  502  Finance Leases  7  28  21  17  15  Other Non-Cash Charges (2)  10  55  47  51  35  FFO  $140  $622  $675  $767  $807  Change in Net Working Capital  0  (5)  (8)  (11)  (15)  Cash Flow from Operations  $141  $617  $666  $756  $792  Capital Expenditures, net  (233)  (1,093)  (1,269)  (1,246)  (1,065)  Change in Debt  (45)  452  518  461  315  Other Financing Cash Flows  (1)  31  98  118  119  Dividends Paid (17) (8) (13) (90) (162)  Net Change in Cash ($154) -- -- -- --  Leverage after Dividend Payment 9/30/2019A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023EDebt $5,237 $5,192 $5,644 $6,161 $6,622 $6,937Cash 254 100 100 100 100 100Net Debt $4,982 $5,092 $5,544 $6,061 $6,522 $6,837Shareholders' Equity (2) $2,038 $2,077 $2,258 $2,465 $2,649 $2,775Total Debt / Equity 2.6x 2.5x 2.5x 2.5x 2.5x 2.5xNet Debt / Equity 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5                                  7 
 

   Cost of Equity Calculation  Source: Company filings, Bloomberg. AER and AL market data as of November 4, 2019. Europa market data as of October 23, 2019, the day prior to Europa’s announcement of strategic alternatives.Based on Dividend Discount Analysis assumed target capital structure of ~2.5x net debt / equity.Per guidance from Europa Management.The Adjusted Equity Beta is based on a five year regression against the MSCI Global Index.Represents (Adjusted Equity Beta + Debt Beta x (1-Marginal Tax Rate) x (Book Value of Debt / Market Value of Equity)) / 1+((1-Marginal Tax Rate) x (Book Value of Debt / Market Value of Equity)).  (3)  (4)  (2)  (2)               WACC Calculation Inputs Target Capital Structure (Net Debt / Total Capital): 71.4After-Tax Cost of Debt:Expected Long-Term Yield:– Current Statutory Marginal Tax Rate:Cost of Equity: 5.5% Equity Market Risk Premium 8.16.7% Equity Market Risk Premium 9.4Risk Free Rate (30-Year Treasury Bond):Assumed Equity Market Risk Premium - low: Assumed Equity Market Risk Premium - high:Relevered Equity Beta: 1.07Unlevered Asset Beta:Selected “Standard” Beta Measurement Period (Years):Implied Net Debt / Equity Ratio: 250.0    –––––  (1)71.4 %3.3 %3.5 %(2)4.7 %8.1 %9.4 %2.3 %5.5 %6.7 %1.070.3155250.0 %  Weighted Average Cost of Capital:  4.7  –  5.0 %  5.5% Equity Market Risk Premium  4.7  –  4.7 %  6.7% Equity Market Risk Premium  5.0  –  5.0 %  The low end of the WACC is based upon the low end of the equity market risk premium (5.5%) and the high end of the net debt / total capital ratio. The high end is based on the high end of the equity market risk premium (6.7%) and the low end of the capital structure.          8 
 

 2. Reference Materials 
 

                       14  16  18  2220  24  32302826  $34  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19  May-19  Jun-19  Jul-19  Aug-19  Sep-19  Oct-19  12/24/201852-Week Low (2)($16.19)  Share Price Performance over the Last Twelve Months  Source: (1)  (2)  FactSet. Market data as of October 23, 2019, the day prior to Europa’s announcement of strategic alternatives.Reflects price performance since market close on August 5, 2019, the day before Europa’s Q2 2019 earnings announcement, through October 23, 2019. Does not indicate total shareholder return.At market close.  Price  10/23/201952-Week High (2)($23.86)$23.86Unaffected Price  Proposed Merger Consideration: $32.00  $20.00VWAP for the 12 Months Prior to October 23rd        Relative Share Price Performance Since Q2 2019 Earnings Release (1)  22%  6%              20151050(5)  25%  08/05      08/16 08/27 09/07Europa AER      09/18 09/29 10/10 10/21AL S&P 500  For Illustrative Purposes and Reference OnlyLTM Share Price Performance Prior to October 23, 2019(October 23, 2018 – October 23, 2019)  15%12%  9 
 

           Total Shareholder Return Performance vs. Select Aircraft Lessors  FactSet. Market data as of October 23, 2019, the day prior to Europa’s announcement of strategic alternatives. Total shareholder return assumes dividends are reinvested in the respective security as of distribution.For AL and Europa, calculated based on annualized Q3 2019 dividends paid.  Source: Note: (1)(2)  Reflects price performance since market close on August 5, 2019, the day before Europa’s Q2 2019 earnings announcement, through October 23, 2019.  64%  83%    TSR  25%  63%    Price Return        20  40  60  80  100  120  140  160  180  200%  Jan-14  May-14  Oct-14  Mar-15  Aug-15  Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16Brexit Vote US Election (June 23, (November 6,2016) 2016)  Apr-17  Sep-17  Feb-18 Jul-18Inflation and Interest Rate Concerns (February 2018)  Oct-19  51%48%  51%42%  Dec-18 May-19Trade Tensions and Growth Uncertainty (December 2018)AER AL  Europa          S&P 500                  (5)08/05 08/16 08/27 09/07 09/18 09/29 10/10 10/21  25%  Q2 2019 Earnings (2) 24%  20    15  15%  10  12%  5  6%  0    Total Shareholder Return Since  For Illustrative Purposes and Reference OnlyTotal Shareholder Return Through October 23, 2019(January 1, 2014 – October 23, 2019)  10                Europa  64%  15%  30%  44%    5.0%  AL  48  3  13  48    1.1  AER S&P 500   5183   1022   1412   4622     ----   Total Shareholder Return Since Jan. 1, 2014 2-Years LTM YTD   Dividend Yield (1) 
 

           0.40  0.80  1.20  1.60  2.00x  Jan-14  Jun-14  Dec-14  Jun-15  Dec-15  May-16  Nov-16  May-17  Nov-17  Apr-18  Oct-18  Apr-19  Oct-19  Historical Price / Book Trading Multiples vs. Select Aircraft Lessors  Source: Note:  Europa AER ALPublic filings and presentations, FactSet. Market data as of October 23, 2019, the day prior to Europa’s announcement of strategic alternatives. AER shown after May 14th, 2014, the closing date of the acquisition of International Lease Finance Corporation.        0.93x0.89x0.87x  For Illustrative Purposes and Reference OnlyPrice / Book Through October 23, 2019(January 1, 2014 – October 23, 2019)   Trailing Averages Since Jan. 1, 2014 3-Years 2-Years LTM   Europa AL  0.92x1.15  0.88x1.06  0.83x1.02  0.76x0.86   AER 0.98 0.88 0.86 0.78     11 
 

                   $23.00  $23.00  $21.00  $20.00  $20.00  $18.00  $26.00  $26.00  $25.00  $25.00  $25.00  $26.00  Q2 '18  Q3 '18  Q4 '18  Q1 '19  Q2 '19  Current                          Wall Street Research Analyst Price Targets    Price Target Range vs. Share Price  Ratings and Median Price Target Over TimeBuy Hold Sell                            89%    78%    78%    11%    11%    30%                67%    67%                            50%        22%    22%    22%    22%    20%    11%                        $24.00 $24.50 $24.00$23.00 $22.50                    $22.50    Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19                    Current    Source: Note: (1)  Company filings, Wall Street research, and FactSet. Market data as of October 23, 2019.Price targets do not reflect any updates following Europa’s announcement of strategic alternatives on October 24, 2019. Unaffected price as of October 23, 2019, the day prior to Europa’s announcement of strategic alternatives.      Median    Unaffected  Share Price: $23.86 (1)                    Premium / (Discount) to    Broker  Report Date  Rating  Price Target  Unaffected Price    J.P.Morgan  10/21/19  Sell  $26.00  9.0%    Stephens  10/01/19  Hold  22.00  (7.8)    Bank of America Merrill Lynch  08/12/19  Sell  20.00  (16.2)    Compass Point  08/07/19  Hold  23.00  (3.6)    Barclays  08/07/19  Hold  22.00  (7.8)    Cowen & Company  08/06/19  Buy  25.00  4.8    Macquarie  08/06/19  Buy  25.00  4.8    Deutsche Bank  08/06/19  Hold  23.00  (3.6)    Credit Suisse  08/06/19  Hold  21.00  (12.0)    Goldman Sachs  08/06/19  Sell  18.00  (24.6)                Median      $22.50  (5.7%)    Maximum      26.00  9.0    Minimum      18.00  (24.6)                          Share Price  For Illustrative Purposes and Reference Only  12 
 

     Selected Precedent Premiums Paid Analysis    Number of Deals  Source: Note:  Citi Deal Intelligence.Includes friendly transactions involving a US target with an equity value of $1.0-$3.0 billion. Excludes hostile transactions.                25%  27%  36%  28%  26%  25%  2014  2015  2016  2017  2018  2019 YTD   All-Cash Deals   Median Premium  27%  75th Percentile  47  25th Percentile  17  Number of Deals  226  27  37  48  37  44  33  For Illustrative Purposes and Reference OnlyMedian 1-Day % Premium(All-Cash Deals; January 1, 2014 – November 4, 2019)  13 
 

   Net Asset Value Per Share                    $7,842  $6,692  $6,694  $6,693  $7,735  Net Book Value  Net Book Value  Appraiser 1  Appraiser 2  Average Appraisal  ($ in millions)  Implied Net Asset Value        Source: Company filings, Europa Management.Assumes June 30, 2019 $150 million cash balance as per Europa Management guidance, pro forma for July 14, 2019 redemption of $500 million Senior Notes due 2019.Includes finance leases, lease incentives & lease premiums and flight equipment held for sale.Represents gross debt outstanding.Represents gross debt outstanding, pro forma for the July 14, 2019 redemption of $500 million Senior Notes due 2019.Europa basic shares outstanding of 74.635 million as of September 30, 2019.Europa basic shares outstanding of 74.983 million as listed on the Company’s balance sheet as of June 30, 2019.  For Illustrative Purposes and Reference OnlyNet Book Value vs. Maintenance-Adjusted Current Market Value      ($ in millions)                    Cash  $254      $150 (1)    $150 (1)  $150(1)    $150(1)  Fleet Value(2)  7,735      7,842    6,692  6,694    6,693  Other Assets  331      292    292  292    292  Total Assets  $8,321      $8,284    $7,134  $7,136    $7,135  Debt  (3)$5,237      (4)$5,193    (4)$5,193  (4)$5,193    (4)$5,193  Other Liabilities  1,046      1,070    1,070  1,070    1,070  Total Liabilities  $6,282      $6,263    $6,263  $6,263    $6,263  Implied Net Asset Value  $2,038      $2,021    $872  $873    $873  Basic Shares Outstanding  (5)74.635      (6)74.983    (6)74.983  (6)74.983    (6)74.983  Implied Net Asset Value per Share  $27.31      $26.96    $11.63  $11.65    $11.64                      As of 9/30/19        As of 6/30/19      Net Book Value Maintenance-Adjusted Current Market Value  14