NPORT-EX 2 probabilitiesnport.htm PROBABILITIES VIT NPORT-EX 3.31.2020

Probabilities VIT Fund
PORTFOLIO OF INVESTMENTS (Unaudited)
March 31, 2020
  Shares                Fair Value 
                   
      EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS - 50.93 %            
      EQUITY FUNDS - 50.93 %          
  10,260   Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X           $                         267,273
  4,990   Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1                                     950,096
  6,330   Proshares UltraPro Dow30                                     264,467
  5,710   ProShares UltraPro QQQ                                     272,024
  4,300   SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust                                   942,689
  3,990   Vanguard S&P 500 ETF                                     944,912
      TOTAL EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS (Cost - $3,692,795)                            3,641,461
                   
      SHORT-TERM INVESTMENT - 100.65 %        
  7,195,512   Goldman Sachs Financial Square Government Fund - Institutional Class, 0.34% ^                            7,195,512
      TOTAL SHORT-TERM INVESTMENT (Cost - $7,195,512)      
                   
      TOTAL INVESTMENTS -  151.58 % (Cost - $10,888,307)(a)      $                    10,836,973
      LIABILITIES IN EXCESS OF OTHER ASSETS  - (51.58) %                            (3,687,612)
      NET ASSETS - 100.0 %          $                      7,149,361
                   
  ETF - Exchange Traded Fund            
  ^ Money market fund; interest rate reflects the seven-day effective yield on March 31, 2020.    
  (a) Represents cost for financial reporting purposes. Aggregate cost for federal tax purposes is $10,935,146 and differs from value by net unrealized appreciation (depreciation) of securities as follows:
          Unrealized appreciation      $                                 -   
          Unrealized depreciation                                 (98,173)
          Net unrealized depreciation      $                          (98,173)
                   

The following is a summary of significant accounting policies followed by the Portfolio. These policies are in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (“GAAP”). The Portfolio follows the specialized accounting and reporting requirements under GAAP that are applicable to investment companies.  The Portfolio is an investment company and accordingly follows the investment company accounting and reporting guidance of the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) Accounting Standard Codification Topic 946 "Financial Services – Investment Companies" including FASB Accounting Standard Update ASU 2013-08.

 

Securities valuation – Securities listed on an exchange are valued at the last reported sale price at the close of the regular trading session of the primary exchange on the business day the value is being determined, or in the case of securities listed on NASDAQ at the NASDAQ Official Closing Price (“NOCP”).  In the absence of a sale such securities shall be valued at the mean between the current bid prices and ask prices on the primary exchange on the day of valuation. Short-term debt obligations having 60 days or less remaining until maturity, at time of purchase, may be valued at amortized cost.  Investments in open-end investment companies are valued at net asset value.

In unusual circumstances, instead of valuing securities in the usual manner, securities may be valued at their fair market value as determined in good faith by the Trust’s Fair Value Committee and in accordance with the Trust’s Portfolio Securities Valuation Procedures (the “Procedures”). The Trust’s Board of Trustees (the “Board”) will review the fair value method in use for securities requiring a fair market value determination at least quarterly. The Procedures consider, among others, the following factors to determine a security’s fair value: the nature and pricing history (if any) of the security; whether any dealer quotations for the security are available; and possible valuation methodologies that could be used to determine the fair value of the security

.


Probabilities VIT Fund
PORTFOLIO OF INVESTMENTS (Unaudited) (Continued)
March 31, 2020
                   
                   

A Portfolio may hold securities, such as private placements, interests in commodity pools, other non-traded securities or temporarily illiquid securities, for which market quotations are not readily available or are determined to be unreliable.  These securities will be valued using the “fair value” procedures approved by the Board.  The Board has delegated execution of these procedures to a fair value team composed of one or more representatives from each of the (i) Trust, (ii) administrator, and (iii) advisor. The team may also enlist third party consultants such as a valuation specialist at a public accounting firm, valuation consultant or financial officer of a security issuer on an as-needed basis to assist in determining a security-specific fair value. The Board reviews and ratifies the execution of this process and the resultant fair value prices at least quarterly to assure the process produces reliable results.

 

Exchange Traded Funds – The Fund may invest in exchange traded funds (“ETFs”).  ETFs are a type of index fund bought and sold on a securities exchange.  An ETF trades like common stock and represents a fixed portfolio of securities designed to track the performance and dividend yield of a particular domestic or foreign market index.  The Fund may purchase an ETF to temporarily gain exposure to a portion of the U.S. or a foreign market while awaiting purchase of underlying securities.  The risks of owning an ETF generally reflect the risks of owning the underlying securities they are designed to track, although the lack of liquidity on an ETF could result in it being more volatile.  Additionally, ETFs have fees and expenses that reduce their value.  

 

Valuation of Fund of Funds -The Fund may invest in funds of open-end or closed-end investment companies (the “Underlying Funds”).  The Underlying Funds value securities in their portfolios for which market quotations are readily available at their market values (generally the last reported sale price) and all other securities and assets at their fair value using the methods established by the board of directors of the Underlying Funds.  Open-end investment companies are valued at their respective net asset values as reported by such investment companies. The shares of many closed-end investment companies, after their initial public offering, frequently trade at a price per share, which is different than the net asset value per share. The difference represents a market premium or market discount of such shares. There can be no assurances that the market discount or market premium on shares of any closed-end investment company purchased by the Fund will not change

 

Fair Valuation Process - As noted above, the fair value team is composed of one or more representatives from each of the (i) Trust, (ii) administrator, and (iii) advisor.  The applicable investments are valued collectively via inputs from each of these groups.  For example, fair value determinations are required for the following securities:  (i) securities for which market quotations are insufficient or not readily available on a particular business day (including securities for which there is a short and temporary lapse in the provision of a price by the regular pricing source), (ii) securities for which, in the judgment of the advisor, the prices or values available do not represent the fair value of the instrument.  Factors which may cause the advisor to make such a judgment include, but are not limited to, the following: only a bid price or an asked price is available; the spread between bid and asked prices is substantial; the frequency of sales; the thinness of the market; the size of reported trades; and actions of the securities markets, such as the suspension or limitation of trading; (iii) securities determined to be illiquid; (iv) securities with respect to which an event that will affect the value thereof has occurred (a “significant event”) since the closing prices were established on the principal exchange on which they are traded, but prior to the Fund’s calculation of its net asset value.  Specifically, interests in commodity pools or managed futures pools are valued on a daily basis by reference to the closing market prices of each futures contract or other asset held by a pool, as adjusted for pool expenses.  Restricted or illiquid securities, such as private placements or non-traded securities are valued via inputs from the advisor based upon the current bid for the security from two or more independent dealers or other parties reasonably familiar with the facts and circumstances of the security (who should take into consideration all relevant factors as may be appropriate under the circumstances).  If the advisor is unable to obtain a current bid from such independent dealers or other independent parties, the fair value team shall determine the fair value of such security using the following factors: (i) the type of security; (ii) the cost at date of purchase; (iii) the size and nature of the Fund's holdings; (iv) the discount from market value of unrestricted securities of the same class at the time of purchase and subsequent thereto; (v) information as to any transactions or offers with respect to the security; (vi) the nature and duration of restrictions on disposition of the security and the existence of any registration rights; (vii) how the yield of the security compares to similar securities of companies of similar or equal creditworthiness; (viii) the level of recent trades of similar or comparable securities; (ix) the liquidity characteristics of the security; (x) current market conditions; and (xi) the market value of any securities into which the security is convertible or exchangeable. 

 

 

Probabilities VIT Fund
PORTFOLIO OF INVESTMENTS (Unaudited) (Continued)
March 31, 2020
                   
                   

The Fund utilizes various methods to measure the fair value of most of its investments on a recurring basis.  GAAP establishes a hierarchy that prioritizes inputs to valuation methods.  The three levels of input are:

 

Level 1 - Unadjusted quoted prices in active markets for identical assets and liabilities that the Fund has the ability to access.

 

Level 2 - Observable inputs other than quoted prices included in Level 1 that are observable for the asset or liability, either directly or indirectly.  These inputs may include quoted prices for the identical instrument on an inactive market, price for similar instruments, interest rates, prepayment speeds, credit risk, yield curves, default rates and similar data.

 

Level 3 - Unobservable inputs for the asset or liability, to the extent relevant observable inputs are not available, representing the Fund's own assumptions about the assumptions a market participant would use in valuing the asset or liability, and would use in valuing the asset or liability, and would be based on the best information available.
                   

The availability of observable inputs can vary from security to security and is affected by a wide variety of factors, including, for example, the type of security, whether the security is new and not yet established in the marketplace, the liquidity of markets, and other characteristics particular to the security. To the extent that valuation is based on models or inputs that are less observable or unobservable in the market, the determination of fair value requires more judgment.  Accordingly, the degree of judgment exercised in determining fair value is greatest for instruments categorized in Level 3.

 

The inputs used to measure fair value may fall into different levels of the fair value hierarchy.  In such cases, for disclosure purposes, the level in the fair value hierarchy within which the fair value measurement falls in its entirety, is determined based on the lowest level input that is significant to the fair value measurement in its entirety. 

 

The inputs or methodology used for valuing securities are not necessarily an indication of the risk associated with investing in those securities.  The following is a summary of the inputs used as of March 31, 2020 in valuing the fund's assets carried at fair value:

 

   Assets *       Level 1   Level 2   Level 3   Total     
  Exchange Traded Funds  $      3,641,461  $              -     $              -     $  3,641,461    
  Short Term Invesments          7,195,512                  -                     -         7,195,512    
  Total  $    10,836,973  $              -     $              -     $10,836,973    
                   
  The Fund did not hold any Level 3 securities during the period.        
  There were no transfers into or out of Level 1, Level 2, and Level 3 during the period.    
  It Is the Fund's Policy to recognize transfers into and out of any level at the end of the reporting period.  
  * Refer to the Portfolio of Investments for industry classification.