EX-99.(C)(2) 2 dex99c2.htm MOELIS FAIRNESS PRESENTATION Moelis Fairness Presentation
Presentation to the Special Committee
July 28, 2011
Project Asteroid Belt
Exhibit (c)(2)
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
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[
1 ]
Disclaimer
This
presentation
has
been
prepared
by
Moelis
&
Company
LLC
(“Moelis”)
for
exclusive
use
by
the
Special
Committee
of
the
Board
of
Directors
of
Global
Traffic
Network
(“GNET”
or
the
“Company”)
in
considering
the
transaction
described
herein
based
on
information
provided
by
the
Company
and
publicly
available
information.
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has
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for
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verifying
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herein,
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the
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completeness
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of
the
information
herein.
In
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Moelis,
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Company’s
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Appendix: Supplemental Valuation Materials
15
IV.
Other Perspectives
9
III.
Valuation Analysis
6
II.
Company Financial Projections
3
I.
Transaction Overview
Table of Contents


I. Transaction Overview
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Summary of Proposed Transaction
OVERVIEW
IMPLIED GNET VALUATION & VALUATION STATISTICS
IMPLIED TRANSACTION PREMIUMS
Current Date
Latest Offer Date
Initial Offer Date
Transaction: Acquisition of 100% of GNET outstanding equity
Purchase price of $14.00 per share
Form of consideration: All-cash
GTCR will backstop entire purchase price -
No financing contingency
No reverse break fee; specific performance with ability to sue for
full damages
Tender offer structure
Other Transaction Details
[55] day post-signing “Go Shop”
period ([40] days extendable to
[55] days if the Board receives a superior proposal within the first 40
days)
Two-Tier Termination Fee: [1.5%] of equity value.  After
termination of “Go Shop”
period, fee would increase to [3.0%] of
equity value
Customary information rights and last look
Source:
Capital IQ, Company financials, Company model as of June 24, 2011
Note:
1.
Excludes stock-based compensation.  Fiscal year ends June 30
2.
Management projections
Premium To:
Share Price
Implied
Premium
July 7, 2011
$12.52
11.8%
30 Day Prior VWAP
11.29
24.0%
60 Day Prior VWAP
11.36
23.2%
90 Day Prior VWAP
11.72
19.4%
Premium To:
Share Price
Implied
Premium
June 6, 2011
$10.30
35.9%
30 Day Prior VWAP
11.46
22.2%
60 Day Prior VWAP
12.06
16.1%
90 Day Prior VWAP
12.10
15.7%
($ in millions, except per share data)
Offer Price
$14.00
Diluted Shares Outstanding
20.0
Market Value of Equity
$280.3
Less: Cash (6/30/11)
($41.7)
Plus: Debt (6/30/11)
0.0
Net Debt
($41.7)
Total Enterprise Value
$238.7
Valuation Statistics
Metric
2
Statistic
TEV / FY 2011E Adjusted EBITDA¹
$19.7
12.1x
TEV / CY 2011E Adjusted EBITDA¹
$21.3
11.2x
TEV / FY 2012E Adjusted EBITDA¹
$24.8
9.6x
Premium To:
Share Price
Implied
Premium
July 27, 2011
$11.48
22.0%
30 Day Prior VWAP
11.88
17.9%
60 Day Prior VWAP
11.37
23.1%
90 Day Prior VWAP
11.69
19.7%


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30-90 Day Prior VWAP Range
($11.37 –
$11.88)
Historical GNET Share Price Performance
The GTCR offer price of $14.00 is above the stock’s all-time high closing price of $13.65
Source:
Capital IQ, Company filings, Company website
Note:
1.
Includes APN News & Media, Astral Media, Beasley Broadcast Group, CC Media Holdings, Corus Entertainment, Cumulus Media, Emmis Communications, Entercom Communications, Prime
Media Group, Radio One, Saga Communications, Salem Communications, Southern Cross Media, UTV Media and Westwood One
Offer Price
($14.00)
9/14/10: Company launches its
traffic alerting system, the Global
Alert Network, in Kansas City
2/10/11: Highest ever quarterly EBITDA of
$6.9mm, above analyst projections.
Partnerships with AccuWeather.com and
Total Traffic Network announced
5/13/11: FQ3 EBITDA and
revenue results miss analyst
projections due to decrease in
Australian advertising spend
11/11/10: Adjusted operating income
projected to become positive FQ2 2011
2/09/10: FQ3 2010 revenue and net
loss projected to improve versus
previous period
1/10/11: Company executes
NDA with GTCR
--%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
GNET Volume
Offer Price
GNET
S&P 500
Broadcasting Companies Index¹
6/27/11: Company added to
Russell 2000 Index


II. Company Financial Projections
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Summary Projected Financials of GNET’s Business Segments
Each of GNET’s business segments have differentiated business prospects and projections
AUSTRALIA
CANADA
UK
MOBILE
(AUD$ in millions)
(CAD$ in millions)
in millions)
(US$ in millions)
A$97
A$91
A$85
A$80
A$74
A$70
A$64
A$57
A$31
A$29
A$26
A$23
A$20
A$19
A$17
A$15
A$0
A$30
A$60
A$90
A$120
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
Revenue
EBITDA
C$42
C$8
C$10
C$15
C$19
C$24
C$29
C$35
C$14.3
($2.7)
($3.3)
C$0.2
C$2.7
C$5.0
C$8.1
C$11.2
($5)
C$13
C$30
C$48
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
Revenue
EBITDA
$--
$0.0
$--
$1.5
$3.7
$5.9
$9.1
$12.9
$2.0
$0.5
$(0.5)
$(1.0)
$(1.2)
$(0.7)
$(1.4)
$3.8
$(3)
$3
$8
$13
$18
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
Revenue
EBITDA
£25
£7
£17
£20
£19
£20
£22
£23
(£0.6)
£0.7
£2.0
£1.6
£1.9
£2.3
£2.5
£2.8
($1)
£7
£15
£23
£31
2009A
2010A
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
Revenue
EBITDA
Revenue Growth
16%
11%
10%
6%
7%
7%
7%
6%
EBITDA Margin
27%
26%
27%
27%
29%
30%
32%
32%
Revenue Growth
20%
24%
51%
29%
25%
22%
20%
20%
EBITDA Margin
NM
NM
1%
14%
21%
27%
32%
34%
Revenue Growth
NA
151%
18%
(5%)
5%
7%
6%
6%
EBITDA Margin
NM
4%
10%
8%
9%
10%
11%
11%
Revenue Growth
NA
NA
NA
NA
146%
62%
54%
41%
EBITDA Margin
NA
NM
NA
NM
NM
8%
22%
30%
Source:
Company model as of June 24, 2011
Note:
2011 financials are estimates and are not updated for actual results as of June 30, 2011


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Summary Historical and Management Projected Financials
Source:
Company model as of June 24, 2011
Note:
1.
Excludes stock-based compensation
Fiscal Year Ended June 30,
CAGR
(US$ in millions)
2007A
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011A
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
'11A - '16E
Revenue
Australia
$28.4
$44.3
$42.7
$56.5
$69.7
$78.1
$83.6
$89.4
$95.7
$101.4
7.8%
% Growth
55.8%
(3.6%)
32.2%
23.5%
12.0%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
6.0%
Canada
3.3
6.7
6.9
9.5
15.0
19.7
24.6
30.0
36.0
43.2
23.5%
% Growth
103.3%
4.0%
36.8%
58.7%
31.1%
25.0%
22.0%
20.0%
20.0%
United Kingdom
--
--
10.7
27.4
32.7
31.2
32.6
34.8
37.0
39.3
3.8%
% Growth
NA
NA
155.7%
19.2%
(4.5%)
4.5%
6.7%
6.3%
6.3%
Mobile Segment
--
--
--
0.0
0.0
1.5
3.7
5.9
9.1
12.9
NA
% Growth
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
146.1%
62.0%
53.6%
41.3%
Total Revenue
$31.7
$51.0
$60.3
$93.3
$117.4
$130.4
$144.4
$160.1
$177.8
$196.8
10.9%
% Growth
60.7%
18.4%
54.7%
25.8%
11.1%
10.7%
10.9%
11.0%
10.7%
Operating Expenses
Australia
$21.8
$30.5
$30.0
$40.1
$49.3
$54.8
$57.3
$60.3
$63.4
$66.7
% of Revenue
68.7%
59.9%
49.7%
43.0%
42.0%
42.0%
39.7%
37.6%
35.7%
33.9%
Canada
6.9
9.1
9.3
12.5
14.9
16.2
18.7
20.9
23.7
27.7
% of Revenue
21.6%
17.8%
15.3%
13.4%
12.7%
12.4%
12.9%
13.1%
13.4%
14.1%
United Kingdom
0.8
1.7
11.6
26.3
29.2
28.2
29.2
30.8
32.6
34.5
% of Revenue
2.4%
3.4%
19.3%
28.2%
24.9%
21.6%
20.2%
19.2%
18.3%
17.5%
Mobile Segment
--
0.2
1.4
0.7
1.2
2.5
4.2
5.5
7.1
9.1
% of Revenue
0.0%
0.3%
2.3%
0.8%
1.0%
1.9%
2.9%
3.4%
4.0%
4.6%
Corporate
2.2
3.4
3.2
3.4
3.0
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.9
% of Revenue
6.9%
6.6%
5.2%
3.6%
2.6%
3.1%
2.9%
2.8%
2.6%
2.5%
Total Operating Expenses
$31.6
$44.9
$55.4
$83.1
$97.7
$105.7
$113.6
$121.9
$131.5
$142.7
% of Revenue
99.7%
88.1%
91.8%
89.0%
83.2%
81.0%
78.6%
76.1%
74.0%
72.5%
Adjusted EBITDA¹
$0.1
$6.1
$4.9
$10.3
$19.7
$24.8
$30.9
$38.3
$46.2
$54.1
22.4%
% Margin
0.3%
11.9%
8.2%
11.0%
16.8%
19.0%
21.4%
23.9%
26.0%
27.5%
Capital Expenditures
$3.1
3.3
1.6
1.2
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
% of Revenue
9.8%
6.5%
2.7%
1.3%
1.4%
1.1%
1.0%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%


III. Valuation Analysis
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[
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12.5% -
14.5% Discount Rate²
3.5% -
4.5% Perp. Growth
Discounted
Cash Flow
Analysis
10.0x –
13.0x
FY2011E Adjusted EBITDA¹
Selected
Transactions
Analysis
9.0x –
11.0x 
CY2011E Adjusted EBITDA¹
Selected Publicly
Traded Companies
Analysis
Commentary
Methodology
Summary Valuation Overview
VALUE PER SHARE
15.0x
13.1x
11.2x
9.3x
7.4x
5.5x
TEV / CY2011E EBITDA¹
16.3x
14.2x
12.1x
10.0x
8.0x
5.9x
TEV / FY2011E EBITDA¹
12.9x
11.3x
9.6x
8.0x
6.3x
4.7x
TEV / FY2012E EBITDA¹
$320.3
$279.5
$238.7
$197.8
$157.0
$116.2
Implied TEV ($mm)
Price Per Share
Notes:
1.
Excludes stock-based compensation. Fiscal year ends June 30
2.
Assumes 25.0% discount rate for Mobile segment
Current Price
(7/27/11):
$11.48
Offer
Price:
$14.00
$11.65
$11.90
$12.60
$16.10
$14.90
$13.80
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$16.00
$18.00


[
11 ]
Selected Publicly Traded Companies Analysis
Source:
Wall Street research, Company filings, Company model as of June 24, 2011
Notes:
1.
Adjusted for Austereo transaction
2.
Adjusted
for
$750
million
private
placement
of
senior
guaranteed
notes
3.
Adjusted for $610 million private placement of senior notes
As of July 27, 2011
Enterprise Value /
Rev.
Current
% of
Revenue
EBITDA
Growth
(US$ in millions except per share data)
Stock
Price
52 Wk.
High
Market
Value
Enterprise
Value
CY
(2010)
CY+1
(2011)
CY+2
(2012)
CY
(2010)
CY+1
(2011)
CY+2
(2012)
CY
('10-'12)
International Broadcasters
Astral Media Inc.
$38.88
86.1%
$2,219
$2,748
2.88x
2.52x
2.43x
9.0x
8.1x
7.6x
8.9%
Corus Entertainment Inc.
22.44
89.4
1,862
2,473
3.05
2.81
2.70
8.9
7.9
7.6
6.2
Southern Cross Media Group ¹
1.56
60.2
1,111
1,907
2.98
2.77
2.33
9.0
8.6
7.1
13.3
APN News & Media Ltd.
1.29
53.4
782
1,692
1.74
1.45
1.38
7.5
6.7
6.2
12.1
Prime Media Group Limited
0.76
79.8
279
439
1.93
1.53
1.48
9.0
6.6
6.3
14.5
UTV Media plc
2.08
81.0
207
325
1.75
1.64
1.58
7.6
6.9
6.5
5.1
Mean
75.0%
2.39x
2.12x
1.98x
8.5x
7.5x
6.9x
10.0%
Median
80.4
2.41x
2.08x
1.95x
9.0x
7.4x
6.8x
10.5
Radio - U.S.
CC Media Holdings, Inc. ²
$6.87
62.5%
$571
$19,511
3.33x
3.26x
3.23x
11.7x
11.1x
10.5x
1.5%
Entercom Communications Corp.
7.75
56.9
303
952
2.43
2.39
2.27
8.2
8.8
7.7
3.5
Cumulus Media Inc. ³
3.44
59.5
147
754
2.86
NA
NA
8.8
NA
NA
NA
Radio One Inc.
1.53
50.3
85
704
2.52
1.93
1.63
9.5
7.2
5.9
24.3
Emmis Communications Corp.
0.93
42.7
36
552
2.21
NA
NA
15.1
NA
NA
NA
Salem Communications Corp.
3.25
74.2
80
368
1.80
1.67
1.51
7.0
6.7
6.1
9.1
Westwood One Inc.
5.40
46.6
122
265
0.73
NA
NA
25.3
NA
NA
NA
Saga Communications Inc.
34.55
85.4
147
225
1.76
1.74
1.66
6.3
6.7
6.1
3.0
Beasley Broadcast Group Inc.
4.05
43.4
93
221
2.26
NA
NA
8.4
8.2
NA
NA
Mean
57.9%
2.21x
2.20x
2.06x
11.2x
8.1x
7.3x
8.3%
Median
56.9
2.26x
1.93x
1.66x
8.8x
7.7x
6.1x
3.5
Overall Mean
64.8%
2.28x
2.16x
2.02x
10.1x
7.8x
7.1x
9.2%
Overall Median
60.2
2.26x
1.93x
1.66x
8.9x
7.6x
6.5x
8.9
Global Traffic Network Inc.
$11.48
82.9%
$229
$188
1.79x
1.49x
1.39x
10.9x
8.8x
6.2x
13.7%


[
12 ]
Selected Publicly Traded Companies Analysis (cont’d)
Notes:
1.
Adjusted for Austereo transaction
2.
Adjusted for $750 million private placement of senior guaranteed
notes
3.
Adjusted for $610 million private placement of senior notes
4.
CY2012 revenue and EBITDA adjusted as follows: Q3-Q4 FY2012 plus estimated 1H FY2013 proportionate to 1H FY2012 performance
As of July 27, 2011
Revenue
EBITDA
Growth (%)
EBITDA Margin (%)
(US$ in millions except per share data)
CY
(2010)
CY+1
(2011)
CY+2
(2012)
CY
(2010)
CY+1
(2011)
CY+2
(2012)
Rev.
(2012)
EBITDA
(2012)
CY
(2010)
CY+1
(2011)
CY+2
(2012)
International Broadcasters
Astral Media Inc.
$953
$1,090
$1,130
$306
$338
$361
3.7%
6.8%
32.1
31.0
31.9
Corus Entertainment Inc.
811
879
915
277
312
324
4.1
4.0
34.1
35.5
35.4
Southern Cross Media Group
¹
639
689
820
211
221
269
19.0
21.8
33.0
32.1
32.8
APN News & Media Ltd.
972
1,167
1,223
224
252
274
4.7
8.8
23.1
21.6
22.4
Prime Media Group Limited
227
287
298
49
66
69
3.7
4.3
21.4
23.1
23.3
UTV Media plc
186
198
205
43
47
50
3.4
6.1
23.0
23.6
24.2
Mean
6.4%
8.6%
27.8%
27.8%
28.3%
Median
3.9
6.5
27.6
27.3
28.1
Radio -
U.S.
CC Media Holdings
, Inc. ²
$5,866
$5,979
$6,045
$1,664
$1,754
$1,859
1.1%
6.0%
28.4
29.3
30.8
Entercom Communications Corp.
391
398
419
116
108
123
5.2
14.0
29.7
27.2
29.5
Cumulus Media Inc
. ³
263
NA
NA
85
NA
NA
NA
NA
32.4
NA
NA
Radio One Inc.
280
365
433
74
98
120
18.7
22.6
26.6
26.7
27.6
Emmis Communications Corp.
250
NA
NA
37
NA
NA
NA
NA
14.6
NA
NA
Salem Communications Corp.
204
220
243
53
55
60
10.4
9.6
25.8
24.8
24.7
Westwood One Inc.
363
NA
NA
10
NA
NA
NA
NA
2.9
NA
NA
Saga Communications Inc.
128
130
136
36
33
37
4.5
9.9
27.8
25.8
27.1
Beasley Broadcast Group Inc.
98
NA
NA
26
27
NA
NA
NA
26.8
NA
NA
Mean
8.0%
12.4%
23.9%
26.8%
27.9%
Median
5.2
9.9
26.8
26.7
27.6
Overall Mean
7.1%
10.4%
25.4%
27.3%
28.1%
Overall Median
4.5
8.8
26.8
26.7
27.6
Global Traffic Network Inc.
4
$104
$126
$135
$17
$21
$30
7.0%
41.6%
16.4%
16.9%
22.3%


[
13 ]
Selected Transactions Analysis
(US$ in millions)
Source:
Company filings, Thomson SDC
Announced
Implied
Implied TEV /
Date
Acquiror
Target
Target Country
Status
TEV
LTM Revenue
LTM EBITDA
04/29/11
Clear Channel Broadcasting
SmartRoute Systems and Metro Networks & TLAC
United States
Completed
$119
NA
NA
01/31/11
Southern Cross Media Group
Austereo Group
Australia
Completed
923
3.3x
9.2x
01/31/11
Cumulus Media
Cumulus Media Partners
United States
Pending
740
3.9x
9.6x
01/19/11
Hubbard Broadcasting
Bonneville Intl Corp Radio Stations
United States
Completed
505
NA
NA
12/17/10
Cumulus Media
Citadel Broadcasting
United States
Pending
2,427
3.3x
9.7x
03/01/10
MSD, Oaktree
GAP Radio Broadcasting
United States
Completed
120
NA
11.4x
Mean
$806
3.5x
10.0x
Median
623
3.3x
9.7x


[
14
]
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Source:
Company model as of June 24, 2011
Note:        Sensitivity analysis does not sensitize Mobile discount rate of 25%
1.
Excludes stock-based compensation
IMPLIED ENTERPRISE VALUE ($MM)
IMPLIED PRICE PER SHARE
IMPLIED TERMINAL MULTIPLE
IMPLIED TEV / FY 2012 ADJUSTED EBITDA1
($ in millions, except per share data)
Discounted Cash Flows
UK, Australia and Canada Segment (13.5% Discount Rate)
Mobile (25% Discount Rate)
Total Discounted Cash Flows
Total Enterprise Value
Net Debt (6/30/11)
Total Equity Value
Diluted Shares Outstanding
Price Per Share
Implied TEV / FY2012E Adjusted EBITDA¹
Fiscal Year Ended June 30,
Term. Value
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
@ 4.0% perp.
$12.8
$14.3
$16.0
$17.3
$16.0
$158.4
(0.9)
(0.4)
0.2
0.6
0.9
4.0
$11.9
$13.9
$16.1
$17.9
$16.9
$162.5
$239.3
(41.7)
$280.9
20.0
$14.03
9.7x
Discount
Perpetuity Growth Rate
Rate
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
11.5%
11.1x
11.7x
12.3x
13.0x
13.7x
12.5%
10.0x
10.4x
10.8x
11.3x
11.9x
13.5%
9.0x
9.3x
9.7x
10.1x
10.5x
14.5%
8.2x
8.5x
8.7x
9.0x
9.4x
15.5%
7.5x
7.7x
8.0x
8.2x
8.5x
Discount
Perpetuity Growth Rate
Rate
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
11.5%
6.7x
7.2x
7.7x
8.3x
8.9x
12.5%
6.0x
6.4x
6.8x
7.3x
7.8x
13.5%
5.5x
5.8x
6.1x
6.5x
6.9x
14.5%
5.0x
5.3x
5.5x
5.8x
6.2x
15.5%
4.6x
4.8x
5.1x
5.3x
5.6x
Discount
Perpetuity Growth Rate
Rate
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
11.5%
$276.0
$289.1
$303.9
$320.8
$340.3
12.5%
246.4
256.5
267.7
280.4
294.7
13.5%
222.6
230.5
239.3
249.0
259.9
14.5%
203.0
209.3
216.3
224.0
232.5
15.5%
186.5
191.7
197.4
203.6
210.3
Discount
Perpetuity Growth Rate
Rate
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
11.5%
$15.83
$16.47
$17.20
$18.03
$18.98
12.5%
14.38
14.88
15.43
16.04
16.75
13.5%
13.21
13.60
14.03
14.51
15.04
14.5%
12.25
12.56
12.90
13.28
13.70
15.5%
11.44
11.70
11.98
12.28
12.61


IV. Other Perspectives
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*


[
16 ]
Premiums Paid Analysis
1-DAY PRIOR
July 26, 2011
1-WEEK PRIOR
July 20, 2011
1-MONTH PRIOR
June 27, 2011
GNET
SHARE PRICE
$11.65
$11.98
$11.45
MEDIAN
SHARE PRICE
PREMIUM¹
(ALL M&A)
33.7%
37.6%
40.6%
MEDIAN
SHARE PRICE
PREMIUM2
(LBO ONLY)
23.8%
27.2%
29.3%
IMPLIED
SHARE PRICE
(ALL M&A)
$15.58
$16.48
$16.10
IMPLIED
SHARE PRICE
(LBO ONLY)
$14.42
$15.24
$14.80
Source:
SDC Platinum
Notes:
1.
Based on all announced & closed M&A transactions since January 1, 2008 with transactions values between $100 million and $1 billion and where 100% of the target equity was acquired.
Analysis
excludes
financials,
energy,
real
estate
and
government
industries
2.
Based on all announced & closed leveraged buyouts since January 1, 2008 with transactions values between $100 million and $1 billion and where 100% of the target equity was acquired.
Analysis
excludes
financials,
energy,
real
estate
and
government
industries


[
17
]
GNET Equity Research Summary
ANALYST RECOMMENDATIONS AND FORECAST
Source:
Company model as of June 24, 2011
($ in millions, except per share data)
Date of
Price
Revenue
EBITDA
Firm
Analyst
Recommendation
Price Target
Target
FY2011E
FY2012E
FY2011E
FY2012E
Noble Financial
Michael Kupinski
Buy
5/19/11
$16.00
$111.2
$117.7
$17.6
$21.1
Dougherty & Company
Richard Ryan
Buy
5/16/11
15.25
112.8
123.0
16.0
22.8
Discovery Investment Research
Jim Gentrup
Buy
5/19/11
15.00
112.6
121.4
17.6
22.1
The Robins Group
NA
Buy
5/17/11
15.00
NA
NA
NA
NA
Feltl and Company
Mark Smith
Buy
6/14/11
14.00
112.8
126.5
15.9
22.3
Imperial Capital
Anil Gupta
Buy
5/18/11
14.00
111.7
123.0
15.7
22.2
21st Century Equity Research
Mark Zinski
Buy
5/13/11
13.50
111.0
126.0
17.0
25.5
Collins Stewart
Thomas Egan
Buy
5/13/11
8.00
NA
NA
NA
NA
Mean
$13.84
$112.0
$122.9
$16.6
$22.7
Median
14.50
112.2
123.0
16.5
22.3
Management Internal Estimates
$117.4
$130.4
$19.7
$24.8


[
18 ]
DOUGHERTY & COMPANY
GNET Equity Research –
Selected Commentary
NOBLE FINANCIAL
DISCOVERY INVESTMENT RESEARCH
FELTL & COMPANY
Price Target of $16.00
Highlights
Management provided a very positive update on the progress of its
new Mobile Alerts business in North America. The company has
approximately 80K subscribers to [the] mobile application and has set
the goal of achieving 1 million downloads by the end of fiscal year
2012“
Risks
“Management
believes
that
its
Sales
force
“dropped
the
ball”
and
did
not react quickly enough to replace the business [lost in Australia]”
Price Target of $15.25
Highlights
“Management indicated the lower Australian results were a blip, and
customers have come back with their advertising spending. April
results were strong, but bookings so far for May and June are slightly
below last year”
Risks
“There are significant risks and uncertainties involving [Mobile
Traffic
Network.]
There
is
also
no
assurance
that
the
technology
will
work as planned or that its application for patent protection will be
granted”
Price Target of $15.00
Highlights
“Much progress was made in the Global Alert Network segment
during the quarter. The Company appears close to obtaining
certification for Apple’s iPhone. GAN is now broadcasting approx.
5,000 traffic reports on a daily basis“
Risks
“Advertising rates increased to $135 per spot in Australia (vs. $130
last year), but the sell-out ratio dropped to 76%. It appears as though
the Company did not resort to offering discounts to book unused
inventory”
Price Target of $14.00
Highlights
“We think the functionality of the GAN App is better than we had
previously expected. Following each alert and advertisement listeners
are asked to touch the “call”
button or “URL”
button to be connected
to the advertiser via phone or their website. We think this makes the
advertisements more valuable to the advertiser”
Risks
“GNET has a limited history of providing its services outside of
Australia. Management intends to expand into additional
international markets and its inexperience in those markets increases
the risk that international expansion might not be successful”


[
19 ]
21st CENTURY EQUITY RESEARCH
GNET Equity Research –
Selected Commentary
(cont’d)
IMPERIAL CAPITAL
Price Target of $14.00
Highlights
“Unexpected weakness in Australia appears to be temporary.
According to Commercial Radio Australia, industry revenue growth
in the country’s top 5 markets was flat in March 2011, consistent
with GNET’s decline, suggesting [the decline] was an industry-wide
issue and not company specific”
Risks
“Because of the high concentration of advertising inventory in
[Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom,] a loss of a key
supplier could severely impact top-line results”
Price Target of $13.50
Highlights
“The Company is near monetizing its new Mobile Alert product
which delivers hands-free traffic and weather updates to motorists via
mobile phones. The Company has accumulated a subscriber base of
80,000 users within a short period. The Company’s stated goal is to
achieve a subscriber base of 1 million“
Risks
“Q3 EPS of ($.01) missed our estimate of $.06 due primarily to lower
than expected sales and operating performance in Australia. Despite
the relatively strong Australian economy (e.g. 4.9% unemployment)
cautious consumer spending negatively impacted retailers and hence
advertising spending”


[
20 ]
Leveraged Buyout Analysis
CAPITALIZATION SUMMARY
TOTAL SOURCES AND USES
Source:
Company model as of June 24, 2011
Notes:
1.
FY 2011E Adjusted EBITDA of $19.7mm plus $1.1mm of public company costs.  Does not include non-cash compensation
2.
FY 2016E Adjusted EBITDA of $54.1mm plus $1.1mm of public company costs. Does not include non-cash compensation
3.
Statistics from FY 2011 projected financials and assume full year interest expense on pro forma debt structure
Key Assumptions include: $14.00 per share offer price, 5.0x initial leverage based on FY 2011E Adjusted EBITDA¹, and a 7.0x exit
multiple based on FY 2016E Adjusted EBITDA²
($ in millions)
Cum. Mult. Of
Total Sources
Adj. EBITDA¹
$
%
Excess Cash on Balance Sheet
$31.7
11%
New Revolver ($25mm)
0.0x
--
--%
New First Lien Term Loan
2.9x
60.0
21%
New Second Lien Term Loan
4.8x
40.0
14%
Sponsor Equity
12.4x
158.2
55%
Total Sources
12.4x
$289.9
100%
Total Uses
$
%
Purchase Price of Equity
$280.3
97%
Financing Fees
3.8
1%
Transaction Expenses
5.8
2%
Total Uses
$289.9
100%
Pro Forma
Fiscal Year Ended June 30,
($ in millions)
Rate
Q4 2011E3
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
Cash
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$10.0
$27.8
New Revolver
L + 500 bps / L Floor 150bps
--
--
--
--
--
--
New First Lien Term Loan
L + 500 bps / L Floor 150bps
60.0
48.0
31.1
8.1
--
--
New Second Lien Term Loan
L + 850 bps / L Floor 150bps
40.0
40.0
40.0
40.0
17.4
--
Total Debt
$100.0
$88.0
$71.1
$48.1
$17.4
$--
Net Debt
$90.0
$78.0
$61.1
$38.1
$7.4
($27.8)
Leverage Statistics
Total Debt / Adjusted EBITD
4.8x
3.4x
2.2x
1.2x
0.4x
NM
Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA
4.3x
3.0x
1.9x
1.0x
0.2x
NM
Coverage Statistics
Adj EBITDA / Interest Expense
2.6x
3.4x
4.7x
6.4x
12.1x
45.5x
Adj EBITDA - Capex / Interest Expense + Mandatory Amortization
2.2x
2.9x
4.1x
5.6x
10.2x
44.3x
Paydown Statistics
Cumulative Total Debt Paydown ($)
$--
$12.0
$28.9
$51.9
$82.6
$100.0
Cumulative Total Debt Paydown (%)
--
12.0%
28.9%
51.9%
82.6%
100.0%
Sponsor Cash Flow & Return @ 7.0x exit multiple
($158.2)
$--
$--
$--
$--
$413.6
Sponsor IRR
21.2%


[
21 ]
Leveraged Buyout Sensitivity Analysis
Assumes 5.0x initial leverage based on FY 2011E Adjusted EBITDA¹
Source:
Company model as of June 24, 2011
Note:
1.
FY2011E
Adjusted
EBITDA
of
$19.7mm
plus
$1.1mm
of
public
company
costs.
Does
not
include
non-cash
compensation
OFFER
($ in millions, except per share data)
PRICE
Purchase Price
$13.50
$14.00
$14.50
Transaction Value
$279.6
$289.9
$300.2
Percent Existing Cash
11.3%
10.9%
10.5%
Percent Debt
35.8%
34.5%
33.3%
Percent Equity
52.9%
54.6%
56.1%
6.0x Exit Multiple
Sponsor IRR
19.3%
17.8%
16.3%
Sponsor MOIC
2.4x
2.3x
2.1x
7.0x Exit Multiple
Sponsor IRR
22.8%
21.2%
19.7%
Sponsor MOIC
2.8x
2.6x
2.5x
8.0x Exit Multiple
Sponsor IRR
25.9%
24.2%
22.7%
Sponsor MOIC
3.2x
3.0x
2.8x


Appendix: Supplemental Valuation Materials
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*


[
23
]
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis –
Segment Valuation
Source:
Company model as of June 24, 2011
Note:
1.
Excludes stock-based compensation
UK, Australia and Canada Segments
13.5% Discount Rate
4.0% Perpetuity Growth Rate
Fiscal Year Ended June 30,
($ in millions)
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
Term. Value
Adjusted EBITDA¹
$25.8
$31.4
$37.8
$44.2
$50.2
$50.2
Less: Depreciation & Amortization
(5.8)
(5.2)
(4.9)
(5.1)
(5.3)
(1.5)
Less: Non-Cash Compensation
(1.7)
(1.9)
(2.1)
(2.3)
(2.4)
(2.4)
EBIT
$18.3
$24.3
$30.8
$36.9
$42.5
$46.3
Less: Income Tax Expense
(7.0)
(9.0)
(10.3)
(11.4)
(15.7)
(16.8)
NOPAT
$11.2
$15.3
$20.4
$25.5
$26.7
$29.5
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization
$5.8
$5.2
$4.9
$5.1
$5.3
$1.5
Less: Capital Expenditures
(1.5)
(1.5)
(1.5)
(1.5)
(1.5)
(1.5)
Less: Increase in Working Capital
(1.8)
(1.7)
(1.9)
(2.2)
(2.2)
(2.2)
Unlevered Free Cash Flow
$13.7
$17.3
$21.9
$26.9
$28.3
$27.3
Perpetuity Growth Rate
4.0%
Terminal Value
$298.5
Discount Rate (WACC)
13.5%
Discounted Cash Flows
$12.8
$14.3
$16.0
$17.3
$16.0
$158.4
Total Segment Enterprise Value
$234.9


[
24
]
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis –
Segment Valuation (cont’d)
Source:
Company model as of June 24, 2011
Note:
1.
Excludes stock-based compensation
Mobile Segment
25% Discount Rate
4.0% Perpetuity Growth Rate
Fiscal Year Ended June 30,
($ in millions)
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
Term. Value
Adjusted EBITDA¹
($1.0)
($0.5)
$0.5
$2.0
$3.8
$3.8
Less: Depreciation & Amortization
--
--
--
--
--
--
Less: Non-Cash Compensation
--
--
--
--
--
--
EBIT
($1.0)
($0.5)
$0.5
$2.0
$3.8
$3.8
Less: Income Tax Expense
--
--
(0.2)
(0.7)
(1.3)
(1.3)
NOPAT
($1.0)
($0.5)
$0.3
$1.3
$2.5
$2.5
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization
$--
$--
$--
$--
$--
$--
Less: Capital Expenditures
--
--
--
--
--
--
Less: Increase in Working Capital
--
--
--
--
--
--
Unlevered Free Cash Flow
($1.0)
($0.5)
$0.3
$1.3
$2.5
$2.5
Perpetuity Growth Rate
4.0%
Terminal Value
$12.3
Discount Rate (WACC)
25.0%
Discounted Cash Flows
($0.9)
($0.4)
$0.2
$0.6
$0.9
$4.0
Total Segment Enterprise Value
$4.4


[
25
]
Contact Information
Moelis & Company LLC is a U.S.-registered broker dealer and a member of FINRA & SIPC.
Moelis & Company LLC
399 Park Ave., 5th Floor
New York, NY 10022
Tel:  (212) 883-3800
1999 Avenue of the Stars
Suite 1900
Los Angeles, CA 90067
Tel:  (310) 443-2300