On March 13, 2019, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued an order to suspend operations of all 737 MAX aircraft in the U.S. and by U.S. aircraft operators following two fatal 737 MAX accidents. Non-U.S. civil aviation authorities have issued directives to the same effect. Deliveries of the 737 MAX have been suspended until clearance is granted by the appropriate regulatory authorities. In addition, multiple legal actions have been filed against us as a result of the accidents. We also are fully cooperating with U.S. government investigations related to the accidents and the 737 MAX program, including investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission, the outcome of which may

We have developed software and pilot training updates for the 737 MAX. During the week of June 29, 2020, the FAA completed a series of flight tests to assess whether the 737 MAX meets certification safety standards. The FAA has stated that while this is an important milestone, a number of key tasks remain including evaluating data gathered during the flight tests. On July 21, 2020 the FAA announced a 45 day public comment period for their notice of proposed rulemaking relative to 737 MAX certification. The impact this will have on timing and conditions of return to service, if any, is uncertain. We continue to work with the FAA and non-U.S. civil aviation authorities to complete remaining steps toward certification and readiness for return to service including addressing their questions on the software updates and how pilots will interact with the airplane controls and displays in different flight scenarios. We have assumed that computer and simulator training will be required and as a result, we have provisioned for certain training costs.

Prior to the grounding, the 737 production rate was 52 per month, and we had planned to increase the rate to 57 per month during 2019. Beginning in the second quarter of 2019, we reduced the production rate to 42 per month. We continued to produce at a rate of 42 per month through December 2019. We temporarily suspended 737 MAX production beginning in January 2020. During the first quarter of 2020, we completed airplanes that were already in process at the end of the fourth quarter of 2019. In March 2020, we announced a temporary suspension of production operations in the Puget Sound area as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Production operations in Puget Sound resumed during the week of April 20, 2020, at which point the 737 team resumed preparations for restarting 737 MAX production. We resumed early stages of 737 MAX production in May 2020 and expect to continue to produce at low rates for the remainder of 2020. We have approximately 450 airplanes in inventory as of June 30, 2020.

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted air travel and reduced near-term demand, resulting in lower production and delivery rate assumptions. During the first quarter of 2020, we lowered our production rate assumptions in response to COVID-19 impacts to expected demand. During the second quarter of 2020, we further delayed our production rate ramp assumptions and now expect to gradually increase the production rate to 31 by the beginning of 2022. We expect further gradual production rate increases in subsequent periods based on market demand. We have assumed that the timing of regulatory approvals will enable 737 MAX deliveries to resume during the fourth quarter of 2020. A number of customers have requested to defer deliveries or to cancel orders for 737 MAX aircraft, which may require us to remarket and/or delay deliveries of certain aircraft included within inventory. We expect that the majority of the approximately 450 737 MAX airplanes in inventory will be delivered during the first year after the resumption of deliveries.

During 2019, the cumulative impacts of changes to assumptions regarding timing of return to service and timing of planned production rates and deliveries increased the estimated costs to produce and deliver the 3,100 undelivered aircraft then included in the accounting quantity by approximately $6.3 billion. During 2020, additional reductions in planned production rates further increased the estimated costs to produce and deliver aircraft included in the accounting quantity, but were partially offset by headcount and other cost reductions. These costs will result in lower 737 margins in future periods after deliveries resume.

During the first quarter of 2020, we reduced the number of aircraft included in the accounting quantity by 400 units as a result of reductions to planned production rates due to COVID-19 driven market uncertainties. The accounting quantity was unchanged during the second quarter. As we continue to produce at abnormally low production rates in 2020 and 2021, we expect to incur approximately $5 billion of abnormal production costs that are being expensed as incurred. The slowdown in the planned production rate ramp-up increased expected abnormal costs however this increase was offset by adjustments to the determination of the normal production level due to COVID-19 impacts on customer demand, as well as cost reduction activities, including significant reductions in employment levels. We expensed $712 and $1,509 of abnormal production costs during the three and six months ended June 30, 2020.

We are working with our customers to minimize the impact to their operations from grounded and undelivered aircraft. We continue to reassess the liability for estimated potential concessions and other considerations to customers on a quarterly basis. This reassessment includes updating estimates to reflect revisions to return to service, delivery and production rate assumptions driven by timing of regulatory approvals, as well as latest information based on engagements with 737 MAX customers. The liability represents our current best estimate of future concessions and other considerations to customers, and is necessarily based on a series of assumptions. It is subject to change in future quarters as negotiations with customers mature and timing and conditions of return to service are better understood. The liability balance of $6.7 billion at June 30, 2020 includes $1.9 billion expected to be liquidated by lower customer delivery payments, $1.1 billion expected to be paid in cash and $0.1 billion in other concessions. Of the cash payments to customers, we expect to pay $0.4 billion in 2020 and $0.5 billion in 2021. The type of consideration to be provided for the remaining $3.6 billion will depend on the outcomes of negotiations with customers.

The FAA and other non-U.S. civil aviation authorities will determine the timing and conditions of return to service. Our assumptions reflect our current best estimate, but actual timing and conditions of return to service and resumption of deliveries could differ from this estimate, the effect of which could be material. We are unable at this time to reasonably estimate potential future additional financial impacts or a range of loss, if any, due to continued uncertainties related to the timing and conditions of return to service, uncertainties related to the impacts of COVID-19 on our operations, supply chain and customers, future changes to the production rate, supply chain impacts, and/or the results of negotiations with particular customers. Any such impacts, including any changes in our estimates, could have a material adverse effect on our financial position, results of operations, and/or cash flows. For example, we expect that, in the event that we are unable to resume aircraft deliveries consistent with our assumptions, the continued absence of revenue, earnings, and cash flows associated with 737 MAX deliveries would continue to have a material impact on our operating results. In the event that future production rate increases occur at a slower rate or take longer than we are currently assuming, we expect that the growth in inventory and other cash flow impacts associated with production would decrease. However, while any prolonged production suspension or delays in planned production rate increases could mitigate the impact on our liquidity, it could significantly increase the overall expected costs to produce aircraft included in the accounting quantity, which would reduce 737 program margins and/or increase abnormal production costs in the future.

Commercial air traffic has fallen dramatically due to the COVID-19 pandemic. While this trend has impacted passenger traffic most severely, near-term cargo traffic has also fallen significantly due to the global economic downturn and the reduction in cargo capacity on passenger airplanes. Airlines have significantly reduced their capacity, and many could implement further reductions in the near future. Many airlines are also implementing significant reductions in staffing. These capacity changes are causing, and are expected to continue to cause, negative impacts to our customers’ revenue, earnings, and cash flow, and in some cases may threaten the future viability of some of our customers, potentially causing defaults within our customer financing portfolio and/or requiring us to remarket aircraft that have already been produced and/or are currently in backlog. If 737 MAX aircraft remain grounded for an extended period of time, we may experience additional reductions to backlog and/or significant order cancellations. Additionally, we may experience fewer new orders and increased cancellations across all of our commercial airplane programs as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated impacts on demand. Our customers may also lack sufficient liquidity to purchase new aircraft due to impacts from the pandemic. We are also observing a significant increase in the number of requests for payment deferrals, contract modifications, lease restructurings and similar actions,

and these trends may lead to additional earnings charges, impairments and other adverse financial impacts in our business over time. In addition, to the extent that customers have valid rights to cancel undelivered aircraft, we may be required to refund pre-delivery payments, putting additional constraints on our liquidity. In addition to the near-term impact, there is risk that the industry implements longer-term strategies involving reduced capacity, shifting route patterns, and mitigation strategies related to impacts from COVID-19 and the risk of future public health crises. In addition, airlines may experience reduced demand due to reluctance by the flying public to travel due to travel restrictions and/or social distancing requirements.

As a result, there is significant uncertainty with respect to when commercial air traffic levels will begin to recover, and whether and at what point capacity will return to and/or exceed pre-COVID-19 levels. The COVID-19 pandemic also has increased, and its aftermath is also expected to continue to increase, uncertainty with respect to global trade volumes, putting significant negative pressure on cargo traffic. Any of these factors would have a significant impact on the demand for both single-aisle and wide-body commercial aircraft, as well as for the services we provide to commercial airlines. In addition, a lengthy period of reduced industry-wide demand for commercial aircraft would put additional pressure on our suppliers, resulting in increased procurement costs and/or additional supply chain disruption. To the extent that the COVID-19 pandemic or its aftermath further impacts demand for our products and services or impairs the viability of some of our customers and/or suppliers, our financial condition, results of operations, and cash flows could be adversely affected, and those impacts could be material.

The liabilities recorded represent our best estimate or the low end of a range of reasonably possible costs expected to be incurred to remediate sites, including operation and maintenance over periods of up to 30 years. It is reasonably possible that we may incur charges that exceed these recorded amounts because of regulatory agency orders and directives, changes in laws and/or regulations, higher than expected costs and/or the discovery of new or additional contamination. As part of our estimating process, we develop a range of reasonably possible alternate scenarios that includes the high end of a range of reasonably possible cost estimates for all remediation sites for which we have sufficient information based on our experience and existing laws and regulations. There are some potential remediation obligations where the costs of remediation cannot be reasonably estimated. At June 30, 2020 and December 31, 2019, the high end of the estimated range of reasonably possible remediation costs exceeded our recorded liabilities by $1,088 and $1,077.

The increase in the product warranty reserve during the six months ended June 30, 2020 is primarily driven by charges related to “pickle forks” on 737NG aircraft. During 2019, we detected cracks in the "pickle forks", a frame fitting component of the structure connecting the wings to the fuselages of 737NG aircraft. We notified the FAA, which issued a directive requiring that certain 737NG airplanes be inspected. We have estimated the number of aircraft that will have to be repaired in the future and provisioned for the estimated costs of completing the repairs. We recognized charges of $135 in 2019 for current and projected future aircraft repairs. During the first quarter of 2020, we recognized additional charges of $336 based on revised engineering and fleet utilization estimates as well as updated repair cost estimates. We cannot estimate a range of reasonably possible losses, if any, in excess of amounts recognized due to the ongoing nature of the inspections and repairs and pending the completion of investigations into the cause of the condition.

In conjunction with signing definitive agreements for the sale of new aircraft (Sale Aircraft), we have entered into trade-in commitments with certain customers that give them the right to trade in used aircraft at a specified price upon the purchase of Sale Aircraft. The probability that trade-in commitments will be exercised is determined by using both quantitative information from valuation sources and qualitative information from other sources. The probability of exercise is assessed quarterly, or as events trigger a change, and takes into consideration the current economic and airline industry environments. Trade-in commitments, which can be terminated by mutual consent with the customer, may be exercised only during the period specified in the agreement, and require advance notice by the customer.

Trade-in commitment agreements at June 30, 2020 have expiration dates from 2020 through 2026. At June 30, 2020 and December 31, 2019 total contractual trade-in commitments were $1,165 and $1,407. As of June 30, 2020 and December 31, 2019, we estimated that it was probable we would be obligated to perform on certain of these commitments with net amounts payable to customers totaling $621 and $711 and the fair value of the related trade-in aircraft was $602 and $678.

The Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019 raised the Budget Control Act limits on federal discretionary defense and non-defense spending for fiscal years 2020 and 2021 (FY20 and FY21), reducing budget uncertainty and the risk of sequestration. The consolidated appropriations acts for FY20, enacted in December 2019, provided FY20 appropriations for government departments and agencies, including the U.S. DoD, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the FAA. In February 2020, the U.S. administration submitted its request for $740.5 billion in base national defense spending for FY21, congruent with the amended spending limit.

The enacted FY20 appropriations included funding for Boeing’s major programs, such as the F/A-18 Super Hornet, F-15EX, CH-47 Chinook, AH-64 Apache, V-22 Osprey, KC-46A Tanker, P-8 Poseidon and Space Launch System. However, there continues to be uncertainty with respect to future program-level appropriations for the U.S. DoD and other government agencies, including NASA. Future budget cuts or investment priority changes, including changes associated with the authorizations and appropriations process, could result in reductions, cancellations and/or delays of existing contracts or programs. Any of these impacts could have a material effect on our results of operations, financial position and/or cash flows.

Fixed-price development work is inherently uncertain and subject to significant variability in estimates of the cost and time required to complete the work. BDS fixed-price contracts with significant development work include Commercial Crew, KC-46A Tanker, MQ-25, T-7A Red Hawk, VC-25B and commercial and military satellites. The operational and technical complexities of these contracts create financial risk, which could trigger termination provisions, order cancellations or other financially significant exposure. Changes to cost and revenue estimates could result in lower margins or material charges for reach-forward losses. For example, we have recorded a reach-forward loss of $978 on KC-46A Tanker in the first half of 2020. The KC-46A Tanker reach-forward loss in the first quarter of 2020 reflects $551 of costs associated with the agreement signed in April 2020 with the U.S. Air Force (USAF) to develop and integrate a new Remote Vision System, and the remaining costs reflect productivity inefficiencies and COVID-19 related factory disruption. Moreover, our fixed-price development programs remain subject to additional reach-forward losses if we experience further production, technical or quality issues, schedule delays, or increased costs.

In 2011, we were awarded a contract from the U.S. Air Force to design, develop, manufacture and deliver four next generation aerial refueling tankers. This Engineering, Manufacturing and Development (EMD) contract is a fixed-price incentive fee contract and involves highly complex designs and systems integration. Since 2016, the USAF has authorized five low rate initial production (LRIP) lots for a total of 67 aircraft. The EMD contract and authorized LRIP lots are valued at approximately $15 billion.

Our final incurred costs for each year are subject to audit and review for allowability by the U.S. government, which can result in payment demands related to costs they believe should be disallowed. We work with the U.S. government to assess the merits of claims and where appropriate reserve for amounts disputed. If we are unable to satisfactorily resolve disputed costs, we could be required to record an earnings charge and/or provide refunds to the U.S. government.