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Outstanding Exposure
6 Months Ended
Jun. 30, 2012
Outstanding Exposure Disclosure  
Outstanding Exposure
Outstanding Exposure
 
The Company’s financial guaranty contracts are written in different forms, but collectively are considered financial guaranty contracts. The Company seeks to limit its exposure to losses by underwriting obligations that are investment grade at inception, diversifying its portfolio and maintaining rigorous subordination or collateralization requirements on structured finance obligations. The Company also has utilized reinsurance by ceding business to third-party reinsurers. The Company provides financial guaranties with respect to debt obligations of special purpose entities, including VIEs. Some of these VIEs are consolidated as described in Note 7, Consolidation of Variable Interest Entities. The outstanding par and Debt Service amounts presented below include outstanding exposures on VIEs whether or not they are consolidated.
 
Debt Service Outstanding
 
 
Gross Debt Service
Outstanding
 
Net Debt Service
Outstanding
 
June 30,
2012
 
December 31,
2011
 
June 30,
2012
 
December 31,
2011
 
(in millions)
Public finance
$
767,155

 
$
798,471

 
$
719,301

 
$
716,890

Structured finance
123,437

 
137,661

 
115,787

 
128,775

Total financial guaranty
$
890,592

 
$
936,132

 
$
835,088

 
$
845,665


 
In addition to the amounts shown in the table above, the Company’s net mortgage guaranty insurance in force was approximately $148 million as of June 30, 2012. The net mortgage guaranty insurance in force comprises $133 million covering loans originated in Ireland and $15 million covering loans originated in the UK.
 
Financial Guaranty Portfolio by Internal Rating
 
 
 
As of June 30, 2012
 
 
Public Finance
U.S.
 
Public Finance
Non-U.S.
 
Structured Finance
U.S
 
Structured Finance
Non-U.S
 
Total
Rating
Category
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
 
(dollars in millions)
Super senior
 
$

 
%
 
$
1,109

 
2.8
%
 
$
15,157

 
18.2
%
 
$
4,777

 
22.9
%
 
$
21,043

 
3.8
%
AAA
 
4,771

 
1.2

 
1,388

 
3.6

 
32,947

 
39.5

 
9,225

 
44.2

 
48,331

 
8.7

AA
 
136,709

 
33.3

 
998

 
2.6

 
10,416

 
12.5

 
889

 
4.3

 
149,012

 
27.0

A
 
220,154

 
53.7

 
10,657

 
27.5

 
4,692

 
5.6

 
1,352

 
6.5

 
236,855

 
42.8

BBB
 
43,836

 
10.7

 
22,102

 
57.0

 
4,201

 
5.0

 
2,740

 
13.1

 
72,879

 
13.2

Below-investment-grade (“BIG”)
 
4,407

 
1.1

 
2,515

 
6.5

 
16,017

 
19.2

 
1,875

 
9.0

 
24,814

 
4.5

Total net par outstanding
 
$
409,877

 
100.0
%
 
$
38,769

 
100.0
%
 
$
83,430

 
100.0
%
 
$
20,858

 
100.0
%
 
$
552,934

 
100.0
%
 
 
 
As of December 31, 2011
 
 
Public Finance
U.S.
 
Public Finance
Non-U.S.
 
Structured Finance
U.S
 
Structured Finance
Non-U.S
 
Total
Rating
Category
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
Net Par
Outstanding
 
%
 
 
(dollars in millions)
Super senior
 
$

 
%
 
$
1,138

 
2.9
%
 
$
16,756

 
18.2
%
 
$
5,660

 
23.9
%
 
$
23,554

 
4.2
%
AAA
 
5,074

 
1.3

 
1,381

 
3.5

 
35,736

 
38.7

 
10,231

 
43.2

 
52,422

 
9.4

AA
 
139,693

 
34.6

 
1,056

 
2.7

 
12,575

 
13.6

 
976

 
4.1

 
154,300

 
27.7

A
 
213,164

 
52.9

 
11,744

 
30.1

 
4,115

 
4.5

 
1,518

 
6.4

 
230,541

 
41.3

BBB
 
40,635

 
10.1

 
21,399

 
54.8

 
5,044

 
5.5

 
3,391

 
14.3

 
70,469

 
12.6

BIG
 
4,507

 
1.1

 
2,328

 
6.0

 
18,008

 
19.5

 
1,919

 
8.1

 
26,762

 
4.8

Total net par outstanding
 
$
403,073

 
100.0
%
 
$
39,046

 
100.0
%
 
$
92,234

 
100.0
%
 
$
23,695

 
100.0
%
 
$
558,048

 
100.0
%

 
In First Quarter 2012, the Company reclassified to AA 80% of the net par outstanding of those first lien transactions that are covered by the Bank of America Agreement (see Note 4, Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts) and that the Company otherwise internally rated below AA. The Company reclassified those amounts as AA exposure due to the eligible assets that Bank of America has placed into trust in order to collateralize its reimbursement obligation relating to such first lien transactions. This reclassification resulted in a decrease in BIG net par outstanding as of December 31, 2011 of $1,452 million from that previously reported.
 
In addition to amounts shown in the tables above, the Company had outstanding commitments to provide guaranties of $1.8 billion for structured finance and $0.5 billion for public finance obligations at June 30, 2012. The structured finance commitments include the unfunded component of pooled corporate and other transactions. Public finance commitments typically relate to primary and secondary public finance debt issuances. The expiration dates for the public finance commitments range between July 1, 2012 and February 25, 2017, with $0.2 billion expiring prior to December 31, 2012. The commitments are contingent on the satisfaction of all conditions set forth in them and may expire unused or be cancelled at the counterparty’s request. Therefore, the total commitment amount does not necessarily reflect actual future guaranteed amounts.
 
Economic Exposure to the Selected European Countries
 
Several European countries are experiencing significant economic, fiscal and/or political strains such that the likelihood of default on obligations with a nexus to those countries may be higher than the Company anticipated when such factors did not exist. The Company is closely monitoring its exposures in European countries where it believes heightened uncertainties exist, specifically, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain (the “Selected European Countries”). Published reports have identified countries that may be experiencing reduced demand for their sovereign debt in the current environment. The Company selected these European countries based on these reports and its view that their credit fundamentals are deteriorating. The Company’s economic exposure to the Selected European Countries (based on par for financial guaranty contracts and notional amount for financial guaranty contracts accounted for as derivatives) is shown in the following table net of ceded reinsurance.
 
Net Economic Exposure to Selected European Countries(1)
June 30, 2012
 
 
Greece(2)
 
Hungary
 
Ireland
 
Italy
 
Portugal
 
Spain
 
Total
 
(in millions)
Sovereign and sub-sovereign exposure:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Public finance
$
276

 
$

 
$

 
$
977

 
$
110

 
$
257

 
$
1,620

Infrastructure finance

 
430

 
23

 
322

 
99

 
165

 
1,039

Sub-total
276

 
430

 
23

 
1,299

 
209

 
422

 
2,659

Non-sovereign exposure:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Regulated utilities

 

 

 
222

 

 
12

 
234

RMBS

 
215

 
133

 
489

 

 

 
837

Commercial receivables

 
1

 
19

 
26

 
14

 
18

 
78

Pooled corporate
31

 

 
208

 
227

 
14

 
492

 
972

Sub-total
31

 
216

 
360

 
964

 
28

 
522

 
2,121

Total
$
307

 
$
646

 
$
383

 
$
2,263

 
$
237

 
$
944

 
$
4,780

Total BIG
$
276

 
$
516

 
$
8

 
$
238

 
$
127

 
$
391

 
$
1,556

 ____________________
(1)                             While the Company’s exposures are shown in U.S. dollars, the obligations the Company insures are in various currencies, including U.S. dollars, Euros and British pounds sterling. Included in the table above is $133 million of reinsurance assumed on a 2004 - 2006 pool of Irish residential mortgages that is part of the Company’s remaining legacy mortgage reinsurance business. One of the residential mortgage-backed securities included in the table above includes residential mortgages in both Italy and Germany, and only the portion of the transaction equal to the portion of the original mortgage pool in Italian mortgages is shown in the table.
(2)                             As of June 30, 2012, the Company had established a full limit loss on this exposure. The Company accelerated claims under its financial guaranty on the July payment date with respect to the 2057 bonds and intends to accelerate claims on or after the September payment date with respect to the 2037 bonds.
 
The Company has not guaranteed any sovereign bonds of the Selected European Countries except Greece (see Note 4, Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts). The remainder of the “Public Finance Category” is from transactions backed by receivable payments from sub-sovereigns in Italy, Spain and Portugal. Sub-sovereign debt is debt issued by a governmental entity or government backed entity, or supported by such an entity, that is other than direct sovereign debt of the ultimate governing body of the country.
 
Surveillance Categories
 
The Company segregates its insured portfolio into investment grade and BIG surveillance categories to facilitate the appropriate allocation of resources to monitoring and loss mitigation efforts and to aid in establishing the appropriate cycle for periodic review for each exposure. BIG exposures include all exposures with internal credit ratings below BBB-. The Company’s internal credit ratings are based on internal assessments of the likelihood of default and loss severity in the event of default. Internal credit ratings are expressed on a ratings scale similar to that used by the rating agencies and are generally reflective of an approach similar to that employed by the rating agencies.
 
The Company monitors its investment grade credits to determine whether any new credits need to be internally downgraded to BIG. The Company refreshes its internal credit ratings on individual credits in quarterly, semi-annual or annual cycles based on the Company’s view of the credit’s quality, loss potential, volatility and sector. Ratings on credits in sectors identified as under the most stress or with the most potential volatility are reviewed every quarter. The Company’s insured credit ratings on assumed credits are based on the Company’s reviews of low-rated credits or credits in volatile sectors, unless such information is not available, in which case, the ceding company’s credit rating of the transactions are used. The Company models most assumed RMBS credits with par above $1 million, as well as certain RMBS credits below that amount.
 
Credits identified as BIG are subjected to further review to determine the probability of a loss (see Note 4, Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts). Surveillance personnel then assign each BIG transaction to the appropriate BIG surveillance category based upon whether a lifetime loss is expected and whether a claim has been paid. The Company expects “lifetime losses” on a transaction when the Company believes there is at least a 50% chance that, on a present value basis, it will pay more claims over the life of that transaction than it ultimately will have been reimbursed. For surveillance purposes, the Company calculates present value using a constant discount rate of 5%. (A risk-free rate is used for recording of reserves for financial statement purposes.)
 
Intense monitoring and intervention is employed for all BIG surveillance categories, with internal credit ratings reviewed quarterly. The three BIG categories are:
 
·                  BIG Category 1: Below-investment-grade transactions showing sufficient deterioration to make lifetime losses possible, but for which none are currently expected. Transactions on which claims have been paid but are expected to be fully reimbursed (other than investment grade transactions on which only liquidity claims have been paid) are in this category.
 
·                  BIG Category 2: Below-investment-grade transactions for which lifetime losses are expected but for which no claims (other than liquidity claims which is a claim that the Company expects to be reimbursed within one year) have yet been paid.
 
·                  BIG Category 3: Below-investment-grade transactions for which lifetime losses are expected and on which claims (other than liquidity claims) have been paid. Transactions remain in this category when claims have been paid and only a recoverable remains.
 

 

Financial Guaranty Exposures
(Insurance and Credit Derivative Form)
 
 
As of June 30, 2012
 
BIG Net Par Outstanding
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
BIG Net Par as
a % of Net Par Outstanding
 
BIG 1
 
BIG 2
 
BIG 3
 
Total BIG
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(in millions)
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien U.S. RMBS:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Prime first lien
$
76

 
$
430

 
$
3

 
$
509

 
$
690

 
0.1
%
Alt-A first lien
436

 
2,039

 
1,374

 
3,849

 
4,939

 
0.7

Option ARM
61

 
471

 
827

 
1,359

 
1,991

 
0.3

Subprime
218

 
1,276

 
864

 
2,358

 
7,754

 
0.4

Second lien U.S. RMBS:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Closed end second lien

 
450

 
419

 
869

 
997

 
0.2

Home equity lines of credit (“HELOCs”)
394

 

 
2,587

 
2,981

 
3,521

 
0.5

Total U.S. RMBS
1,185

 
4,666

 
6,074

 
11,925

 
19,892

 
2.2

Trust preferred securities (“TruPS”)
2,071

 

 
952

 
3,023

 
6,006

 
0.5

Other structured finance
1,261

 
459

 
1,224

 
2,944

 
78,390

 
0.5

U.S. public finance
3,285

 
407

 
715

 
4,407

 
409,877

 
0.8

Non-U.S. public finance (1)
2,239

 
276

 

 
2,515

 
38,769

 
0.5

Total
$
10,041

 
$
5,808

 
$
8,965

 
$
24,814

 
$
552,934

 
4.5
%
 
 
As of December 31, 2011
 
BIG Net Par Outstanding
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
BIG Net Par as
a % of Net Par Outstanding
 
BIG 1
 
BIG 2
 
BIG 3
 
Total BIG
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(in millions)
 
 
 
 
 
 
First lien U.S. RMBS:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Prime first lien
$
77

 
$
465

 
$

 
$
542

 
$
739

 
0.1
%
Alt-A first lien
1,695

 
1,028

 
1,540

 
4,263

 
5,329

 
0.8

Option ARM
25

 
689

 
882

 
1,596

 
2,433

 
0.3

Subprime (including net interest margin securities)
795

 
1,200

 
513

 
2,508

 
8,136

 
0.4

Second lien U.S. RMBS:
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Closed end second lien

 
495

 
520

 
1,015

 
1,040

 
0.2

HELOCs
421

 

 
2,858

 
3,279

 
3,890

 
0.6

Total U.S. RMBS
3,013

 
3,877

 
6,313

 
13,203

 
21,567

 
2.4

TruPS
2,501

 

 
951

 
3,452

 
6,334

 
0.6

Other structured finance
1,295

 
548

 
1,429

 
3,272

 
88,028

 
0.6

U.S. public finance
3,395

 
274

 
838

 
4,507

 
403,073

 
0.8

Non-U.S. public finance (1)
2,046

 
282

 

 
2,328

 
39,046

 
0.4

Total
$
12,250

 
$
4,981

 
$
9,531

 
$
26,762

 
$
558,048

 
4.8
%
_____________________
(1)    Includes $276 million and $282 million in net par as of June 30, 2012 and December 31, 2011, respectively, for bonds of the Hellenic Republic of Greece, a portion of which was accelerated in July 2012 and a portion of which the Company intends to accelerate on or after September 2012. See Note 4, Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts.
 
Below-Investment-Grade Credits
By Category
 
 
 
As of June 30, 2012
 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Number of Risks(2)
Description
 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
 
Credit
Derivative
 
Total
 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
 
Credit
Derivative
 
Total
 
 
(dollars in millions)
BIG:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Category 1
 
$
7,467

 
$
2,574

 
$
10,041

 
164

 
35

 
199

Category 2
 
3,353

 
2,455

 
5,808

 
79

 
34

 
113

Category 3
 
6,894

 
2,071

 
8,965

 
132

 
25

 
157

Total BIG
 
$
17,714

 
$
7,100

 
$
24,814

 
375

 
94

 
469

 
 
 
As of December 31, 2011
 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Number of Risks(2)
Description
 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
 
Credit
Derivative
 
Total
 
Financial
Guaranty
Insurance(1)
 
Credit
Derivative
 
Total
 
 
(dollars in millions)
BIG:
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Category 1
 
$
8,297

 
$
3,953

 
$
12,250

 
171

 
40

 
211

Category 2
 
3,458

 
1,523

 
4,981

 
71

 
33

 
104

Category 3
 
7,204

 
2,327

 
9,531

 
126

 
26

 
152

Total BIG
 
$
18,959

 
$
7,803

 
$
26,762

 
368

 
99

 
467

_____________________
(1)                                Includes net par outstanding for FG VIEs.
 
(2)                                 A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making Debt Service payments.